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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Easter Saturday PB Nighthawk cafe

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Easter Saturday PB Nighthawk cafe

Relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events.

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  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited March 2013
    Went to post about Lionel Messi's amazing achievement of scoring in 19 consecutive la liga games (against all 19 clubs), when I accidenatally clicked on a link that led me to this....

    Six years is a long time in politics!

    Posted in Lib Dems | No Comments

    ICM finds support for UKIP down to ZERO percent
    Wednesday, October 31st, 2007


    What are the implications of the collapse of the anti-EU party?
    On June 10th 2004 in the last European elections, UKIP received 2.7 million votes and gained twelve seats in the European Parliament. Their national vote share of just under 17% put them in third place ahead of the Lib Dems and all the talk was of the party doing terrible damage to Michael Howard Conservatives in the ensuing general election.

    When that vote came, just eleven months later, the party received a paltry 618,000 votes which amounted to less than 2.4% of the national vote. It did not win any Westminster seats although it’s argued that the performances of their candidates in key marginals cost the Tories a clutch of seats.

    Earlier in 2007 the party was making the headlines again when two former Conservative Lords defected. Lords Pearson and Willoughby de Broke said they felt Cameron’s Conservative Party was not producing policy to support their beliefs.

    Today, Julian Glover in the Guardian reports that in the latest poll published this morning UKIP did not register at all. Not a single respondent said the party would be their choice.

    UKIP, like other smaller parties, is suffering from the increasing polarisation of big party politics. The question is whether this will have an impact on the number of seats changing hands and if so how should punters factor this in? For the UKIP element does not figure in the standard seat predictors except in so far as a part of the decline in support might mean switching to other parties.

    We saw in the ICM marginals poll on the weekend that Gord called off the election that the Tories were doing well in the key seats. In that survey five people said they would vote UKIP.

    All this is why in my commons seat spread betting I’m now assuming that the Tories will do a little better than the Baxter and Wells seat predictors suggest. When you have £100 a seat positions the odd five gains or losses either way can make a big difference.

    Meanwhile on the Betfair general election “most seats” market the Tories have moved into the favourite slot once again.

    Mike Smithson
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited March 2013
    That was then - this is now and six years is a long time in politics

    That was three weeks after Gordon election U-turn and it did look as though the other parties were marginalised.

    It turned out to be a pretty good prediction given UKIP's failure even to get close to winning a seat at GE2010.

    GE2015 could be very different

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    The EU hates savers?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I should add that in the March 2012 ICM poll - just over a year ago - Ukip was on just 1%.

    Then we had Osborne's 2012 budget which totally changed the narrative. It was that, I'd argue, when the Tories ceased to appear competent thus paving the way for Farage
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    The reality was that GO's 2012 budget rightly reduced a ridiculous 50% rate which was counterproductive for tax take but was attacked by the left. The correct thing to do for the nation but politically damaging. The rest was just a tidying up excercise for pasties, caravans etc., attacked by most of the press because they like to sensationalise things.
  • Sunderland sack Martin O'Neill
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    perdix said:

    The reality was that GO's 2012 budget rightly reduced a ridiculous 50% rate which was counterproductive for tax take but was attacked by the left. The correct thing to do for the nation but politically damaging. The rest was just a tidying up exercise for pasties, caravans etc., attacked by most of the press because they like to sensationalise things.

    Whatever - but in polling terms the March 2012 budget was a disaster from which the Tories have not recovered. The difference between now send then is that we area year closer to GE2015.

    Osbo simply didn't prepare and handled the 45% tax rate appallingly.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:

    There have been 9 polls since the budget. UKIP average = 13%; and 30 polls since the Eastleigh by-election with a UKIP average of 12.5%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:
    "Anyone think 200/1 for a libDem at South Shields is good value. at WH? I know it is a "safe" Labour seat, but resignation by elections do produce surprises, and LibDems have a good by election team. "
    The answer to that is emphatically no.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited March 2013
    @MikeSmithson you mention that the next GE could be very different. One of the least mentioned outcomes and perhaps the one that could cause the greatest mayhem would be if the next election was broadly the same as 2010. Would no change lead to no change?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sunderland sack Martin O'Neill

    He would be welcomed back to Leicester City with open arms. I was unfortunate to see LCFC blow their season this month, we were second fairly recently. Nigel Pearson will be out before the end of the season.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281

    Sunderland sack Martin O'Neill

    Don't panic! Don't panic!

    LOL - title race may be over but relegation battle is going to be incredibly exciting - 9 teams in serious danger!

    Don't panic!
  • Jonathan said:

    @MikeSmithson you mention that the next GE could be very different. One of the least mentioned outcomes and perhaps the one that could cause the greatest mayhem would be if the next election was broadly the same as 2010. Would no change lead to no change?

    I think the greatest mayhem would be if there was a hung parliament, and numbers could make for either a Lab/LD government with a majority or a Tory/LD government with a majority.

    The Lib Dems would be placed in an impossible situation.
  • @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Evening all :)

    The most interesting event of the day for me was Animal Kingdom's brilliant win in the Dubai World Cup. He's due to come to Ascot for the Queen Anne and it's a huge regret he wasn't here to take on Frankel. As it is, he looks a real prospect.

    Then we had Shea Shea in the Sprint. I only wish his connections would come to Ascot to take on Black Caviar in the KIng's Stand.

    This is why Ascot in June is so much better than Cheltenham in March - it's a fascinating global meeting, not just a competition between Messrs Henderson, Mullins and Nicholls.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.

    Thanks! Hope to watch them later. What do you make of the new album? Some good tunes on there.

  • @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.

    Thanks! Hope to watch them later. What do you make of the new album? Some good tunes on there.

    I've not listened to it properly yet.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited March 2013

    That was then - this is now and six years is a long time in politics

    That was three weeks after Gordon election U-turn and it did look as though the other parties were marginalised.

    It turned out to be a pretty good prediction given UKIP's failure even to get close to winning a seat at GE2010.

    GE2015 could be very different

    Yes I know. I didn't mean to insult you, hope you didn't take it that way. Posted it to show how far UKIP had come from having zero respondents saying they'd vote for them to defining government policy...

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    The EU hates savers?


    It's not over keen on Democracy either.

  • P. Hennessy, 'Andrew Mitchell complains to IPCC over plebgate "leak"', The Sunday Telegraph, (31 March 2013):
    'In a letter to the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC) an angry Mr Mitchell claimed the partial leaking of information had been “spun” to the advantage of officers involved in the case.
    “This was an enquiry into a dishonest and illicit attempt to blacken my name and destroy my career,” he wrote. “It would appear that the police enquiry continues precisely that process.”
    '
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.

    Thanks! Hope to watch them later. What do you make of the new album? Some good tunes on there.

    I've not listened to it properly yet.
    Oh in that case I'd recommend the songs Slow and Soft Touch/Raw Nerve.
  • @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.

    Thanks! Hope to watch them later. What do you make of the new album? Some good tunes on there.

    I've not listened to it properly yet.
    Oh in that case I'd recommend the songs Slow and Soft Touch/Raw Nerve.
    Thanks, just been a bit of a hectic week for me.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.

    Thanks! Hope to watch them later. What do you make of the new album? Some good tunes on there.

    I've not listened to it properly yet.
    Oh in that case I'd recommend the songs Slow and Soft Touch/Raw Nerve.
    Thanks, just been a bit of a hectic week for me.
    Damn! I forgot mum hates Jonathan Ross, I'll have to watch it via the ITV Player!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    MInd you, you could say the BoE also hates savers by keeping interest rates artificially low, effectively stealing money from us that way.
  • @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.

    Thanks! Hope to watch them later. What do you make of the new album? Some good tunes on there.

    I've not listened to it properly yet.
    Oh in that case I'd recommend the songs Slow and Soft Touch/Raw Nerve.
    Thanks, just been a bit of a hectic week for me.
    Damn! I forgot mum hates Jonathan Ross, I'll have to watch it via the ITV Player!

    @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.

    Thanks! Hope to watch them later. What do you make of the new album? Some good tunes on there.

    I've not listened to it properly yet.
    Oh in that case I'd recommend the songs Slow and Soft Touch/Raw Nerve.
    Thanks, just been a bit of a hectic week for me.
    Damn! I forgot mum hates Jonathan Ross, I'll have to watch it via the ITV Player!
    Just watch the last 10mins or so, I don't think they're guests, just doing the closing song.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "The Lib Dems would be placed in an impossible situation."

    Nonsense, Mr. Eagles. You are talking about a party that proposed a measure, that was contained in their own manifesto, to Parliament, voted for it and then voted against it being implemented. For a party with such high principles it will be no problem leaping into coalition with Labour.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    @TSE

    Ah I see, OK I'll stream it live on my lap top then.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Jonathan said:

    @MikeSmithson you mention that the next GE could be very different. One of the least mentioned outcomes and perhaps the one that could cause the greatest mayhem would be if the next election was broadly the same as 2010. Would no change lead to no change?

    I think the greatest mayhem would be if there was a hung parliament, and numbers could make for either a Lab/LD government with a majority or a Tory/LD government with a majority.

    The Lib Dems would be placed in an impossible situation.
    No, not at all. Ed MIlliband has already indicated he can't do a deal with Nick Clegg which is his prerogative and if Labour win more votes than the Conservatives, the probability is they will either have won enough seats to form a majority or be very close to that majority.

    If the Conservatives win more votes than Labour, then the question will be whether the Coalition of 2010-15 will be renewed. There will be some claim that the electorate has vindicated the Coalition and therefore the question will be whether Cameron/Clegg can strike a second deal for 2015-20 on what basis.

    As a Lib Dem member and supporter, I think there is a level of Parliamentary representation at which the Party will be able to get involved with the next Government, arithmetic notwithstanding. A parliamentary party of say 35-40 MPs would be viable enough, in my view, to enter into Coalition negotiations with a Conservative grouping of say 290-300 MPs.

    Less than 30 seats and my guess is the party will want to crawl away and lick its wounds in opposition. In any case, as someone said earlier, the likelihood of a Parliament with NOM decreases as the LD MP total decreases.

    None of this will matter if Labour marches through the Conservative marginals and into power as 1997 showed or is within a fingertip (say less than 10 seats) of power.

    The more interesting question is whether, IF they win a wafer-thin majority (say less than 10 seats), the Conservatives will seek a second Coalition to provide Parliamentary security and a defence against by-election defeats and defections.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited March 2013
    Just a public service announcement

    British Summer Time begins this weekend, which means for the next seven months, the clocks on your cookers and microwaves will be wrong.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited March 2013

    @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.

    Thanks! Hope to watch them later. What do you make of the new album? Some good tunes on there.

    I've not listened to it properly yet.
    Oh in that case I'd recommend the songs Slow and Soft Touch/Raw Nerve.


    Dave Gahan still sounds just like a Basildon boy!

    Blimey has Martin Gore had a bit of work???

    Enjoy The Silence is one of my fav songs, I only have the Violator album mind you
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Just a public service announcement

    British Summer Times begins this weekend, which means for the next seven months, the clocks on your cookers and microwaves will be wrong.

    Or correct, depending on when they were purchased, or you last had a power cut!
  • Mr Llama - Oh you cynic.

    Stodge - I guess the other problem for the Lib Dems might be, if the Tories get the most votes but Labour gets the most seats.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    edited March 2013
    sam said:

    @Sunil

    Depeche Mode are on the Jonathan Ross show this evening.

    Thanks! Hope to watch them later. What do you make of the new album? Some good tunes on there.

    I've not listened to it properly yet.
    Oh in that case I'd recommend the songs Slow and Soft Touch/Raw Nerve.


    Dave Gahan still sounds just like a Basildon boy!

    Blimey has Martin Gore had a bit of work???

    Enjoy The Silence is one of my fav songs, I only have the Violator album mind you
    The lads will be in their 50s by now! Martin does look the oldest though.

    Sam if you wanna laugh, have a look at my CD collection - partial, only got Depeche Mode/Vince Clarke/Alan Wilder stuff listed at the moment -

    http://www.discogs.com/collection?user=Sunil_&sort=artist,asc
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    RobD said:

    Just a public service announcement

    British Summer Times begins this weekend, which means for the next seven months, the clocks on your cookers and microwaves will be wrong.

    Or correct, depending on when they were purchased, or you last had a power cut!
    Ha! I can change the time on the clock on my oven :)
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Errrrm should I be scared by the itv news????
  • Apologies Mr Prasannan, it's a full interview with the Mode
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @TSE:
    The Lib Dems would be placed in an impossible situation.

    No they wouldn't; they would plump for labour before you could say millipede.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Mr Llama - Oh you cynic.

    Stodge - I guess the other problem for the Lib Dems might be, if the Tories get the most votes but Labour gets the most seats.

    This was of course the same problem as might have existed in 2010. Nick made the call (rightly in my view) that votes provide legitimacy rather than seats.

    If 2015 produces for example Labour 295 seats, Conservatives 285 seats, Liberal Democrats 37, Nick should still talk to David Cameron first as the leader of the party with the largest number of votes and presumably if that were to fail, the option to talk to Labour would exist if Labour wanted it.

    I can't imagine that IF talks with the Liberal Democrats failed, Cameron would carry on. It would essentially be February 1974 Mark 2.

  • samsam Posts: 727
    @Sunil_Prasannan

    You are very loyal to the bands you like! It's like a rock family tree!

    Quite liked that new DM song

    Seeing as its nighthawks not politics, has there ever been an openly gay song sung explicitly to someone of the same sex that couldn't be interpreted as Hetero?

    Racking my brains I can think of only Sunny by Morrissey...George Michaels Older album was all about, and dedicated to, his boyfriend, but none of the songs could be exclusively male to make iirc
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    stodge said:



    If 2015 produces for example Labour 295 seats, Conservatives 285 seats, Liberal Democrats 37, Nick should still talk to David Cameron first as the leader of the party with the largest number of votes and presumably if that were to fail, the option to talk to Labour would exist if Labour wanted it.

    Stodgy, you're smarter than that. "Talk to them first" just means give the Tories a 24 hour headstart and then trade off the two parties to get the best deal for the LibDems.

    Don't try and dress it up as some point of high principle.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    MikeK said:

    @TSE:
    The Lib Dems would be placed in an impossible situation.

    No they wouldn't; they would plump for labour before you could say millipede.

    Oh dear, the same old baloney that was doing the rounds before 2010. I think going in with Labour is the third most likely for option for the Party after 2015 - the most likely is Opposition and the second most likely is continued Coalition with the Conservatives.


  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Charles said:

    stodge said:



    If 2015 produces for example Labour 295 seats, Conservatives 285 seats, Liberal Democrats 37, Nick should still talk to David Cameron first as the leader of the party with the largest number of votes and presumably if that were to fail, the option to talk to Labour would exist if Labour wanted it.

    Stodgy, you're smarter than that. "Talk to them first" just means give the Tories a 24 hour headstart and then trade off the two parties to get the best deal for the LibDems.

    Don't try and dress it up as some point of high principle.
    Wasn't aware I was, Charlie Boy. It was, after all, David Cameron who created the Coalition on the Friday afternoon after the election. He COULD have refused all offers and formed a minority administration but he didn't.

    You could try asking yourself why he did what we did on that May afternoon instead of throwing around ludicrous assertions.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    stodge said:



    Oh dear, the same old baloney that was doing the rounds before 2010. I think going in with Labour is the third most likely for option for the Party after 2015 - the most likely is Opposition and the second most likely is continued Coalition with the Conservatives.

    A hung Parliament where the LibDems could choose would be a 'mare for them.

    Chose the Tories - why are they different / finally alienate all those lefties who gave them the benefit of the doubt after 2010

    Chose Labour - perfidious/inconsistent (how can they switch on economic policy so quickly?) risks alienating the Orange Bookers who have stuck with them through the Coalition. Only interested in power for themselves.

    Chose neither - unfit for government / can't make serious decisions in the interest of the country.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    stodge said:



    You could try asking yourself why he did what we did on that May afternoon instead of throwing around ludicrous assertions.

    I'm not sure what is the 'ludicrous assertion'

    The LibDems want the best deal that they can get for themselves. It would be idiotic for them not to negotiate with the two bidders to maximise the proportion of their manifesto that gets implemented / maximise their role in government. The "talk to the party with the most votes first" is a good answer for the media - it sounds good, but is basically meaningless.

    In May 2010, Cameron wanted power, with a secure majority (and, possibly but unproven, to give himself a bulwark against his right flank).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Stodge - I don't think EdM has ruled out working with Nick Clegg if the numbers make it necessary. There was some unconfirmed press stuff that Labour would demand a new LibDem leader but that sort of thing is always for the birds if it comes to being/not being in government. While Cable appears to be more ideologically congenial to Labour, the other leading figures seem much the same politically, and I don't see why we should prefer that Clegg is replaced by, say, Alexander.

    That said, I would have thought that if there's a significant drop in LibDem seat numbers, they might prefer a time in opposition, if necessary giving the largest party confidence and supply. If the current coalition has lost a fair number of seats, they'd be unlikely to carry on regardless. This was IMO the real reason why Labour only made a half-hearted attempt to cobble a coalition together after 2010 - the bottom line was that we'd lost and the electorate (rightly, I'm afraid) felt we needed a period out of office to recharge batteries. That already seems true of both Government parties today.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Charles said:

    stodge said:



    Oh dear, the same old baloney that was doing the rounds before 2010. I think going in with Labour is the third most likely for option for the Party after 2015 - the most likely is Opposition and the second most likely is continued Coalition with the Conservatives.

    A hung Parliament where the LibDems could choose would be a 'mare for them.

    Chose the Tories - why are they different / finally alienate all those lefties who gave them the benefit of the doubt after 2010

    Chose Labour - perfidious/inconsistent (how can they switch on economic policy so quickly?) risks alienating the Orange Bookers who have stuck with them through the Coalition. Only interested in power for themselves.

    Chose neither - unfit for government / can't make serious decisions in the interest of the country.
    So much, as I said before, would depend on the numbers. A Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Party with similar or increased representation would be in a far stronger negotiating position and could argue vindication of a difficult situation.

    The real problem comes with a much reduced party and as I said, at 30 MPs or fewer, I suspect the Party couldn't see itself as a player in a formal Coalition and we'd be looking at some form of "Supply & Confidence" basis at best though I strongly suspect that if either Labour or Conservatives were within 15 seats of a majority, they'd either go it alone or look for allies elsewhere.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Oh Gawd , the pbtories having parroted Vote Lib Dem get Brown in 2010 are now rehearsing saying Vote Lib Dem get Labour in 2015 . Wrong in 2010 , wrong now , wrong in 2015 . They never learn . Stodge has it exactly correct in the probable order of choice the Lib Dems would make in 2015 .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    sam said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan

    You are very loyal to the bands you like! It's like a rock family tree!

    Quite liked that new DM song

    Seeing as its nighthawks not politics, has there ever been an openly gay song sung explicitly to someone of the same sex that couldn't be interpreted as Hetero?

    Racking my brains I can think of only Sunny by Morrissey...George Michaels Older album was all about, and dedicated to, his boyfriend, but none of the songs could be exclusively male to make iirc


    Can't think of one directly, but I always like to point out that Never Let Me Down Again by the Mode (1987) has the lyric

    "Promises me I'm as safe as houses/As long as I remember who's wearing the trousers"

    Nikita by Elton John is also always a laugh if you remember that Nikita is a bloke's name in Russia!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Stodge - I don't think EdM has ruled out working with Nick Clegg if the numbers make it necessary. There was some unconfirmed press stuff that Labour would demand a new LibDem leader but that sort of thing is always for the birds if it comes to being/not being in government. While Cable appears to be more ideologically congenial to Labour, the other leading figures seem much the same politically, and I don't see why we should prefer that Clegg is replaced by, say, Alexander.

    That said, I would have thought that if there's a significant drop in LibDem seat numbers, they might prefer a time in opposition, if necessary giving the largest party confidence and supply. If the current coalition has lost a fair number of seats, they'd be unlikely to carry on regardless. This was IMO the real reason why Labour only made a half-hearted attempt to cobble a coalition together after 2010 - the bottom line was that we'd lost and the electorate (rightly, I'm afraid) felt we needed a period out of office to recharge batteries. That already seems true of both Government parties today.

    I don't disagree with a word of that and I strongly suspect that IF, as seems possible, the Party is much reduced in numbers (both votes and seats) in May 2015 "a period of reflection" or "time spent counting the dead" (delete as appropriate) will be the favoured option with the survivors regrouping around Tim Farron.

    The interesting scenario would be IF in 2015, the Conservatives ruled out a second Coalition but a minority Labour Government with LD support was an option. Would Labour, having made only a small advance from a low base, feel "ready" to go back into Government ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    A Lab/LD coalition is the most likely outcome of the next election in my opinion. I don't know whether Clegg would be involved though.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    I have just opened the door for my cat (because he won't use the the cat flap if anyone is awake), given him his night-time milk and carried him upstairs to bed. As I put him down next to Herself, before taking myself off to the spare room, he looked at me and do you know what? He looked smug.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Oh Gawd , the pbtories having parroted Vote Lib Dem get Brown in 2010 are now rehearsing saying Vote Lib Dem get Labour in 2015 . Wrong in 2010 , wrong now , wrong in 2015 . They never learn . Stodge has it exactly correct in the probable order of choice the Lib Dems would make in 2015 .

    And, to be fair, how can any Conservative say that after five years of Coalition ? It will have potency from the Labour side, no question, and for Ed Milliband, as Nick P rightly opines, the line has to be nuanced, at least in private.

    What Labour say in public about the possibility of co-operation flies in the face of what I suspect happens behind the scenes. Channels of communication exist between Labour and the LDs (they always have) and that seems to surprise some on here. The public rhetoric is one thing - the private words are probably much more conciliatory and pave the ground for the possibility of a more convivial post-election climate between the parties than existed in 2010.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    LibDems, the centre left needs you. In your first coalition year you played it horribly. But you have learned. You did a brave thing in 2010, but it was the right thing. You must have learned a lot. I may be in a minority, but I very much hope that after 2015 you are in coalition with Labour and the proper work of rebuilding Britain can begin.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited March 2013
    stodge said:

    Oh Gawd , the pbtories having parroted Vote Lib Dem get Brown in 2010 are now rehearsing saying Vote Lib Dem get Labour in 2015 . Wrong in 2010 , wrong now , wrong in 2015 . They never learn . Stodge has it exactly correct in the probable order of choice the Lib Dems would make in 2015 .

    And, to be fair, how can any Conservative say that after five years of Coalition ? It will have potency from the Labour side, no question, and for Ed Milliband, as Nick P rightly opines, the line has to be nuanced, at least in private.

    What Labour say in public about the possibility of co-operation flies in the face of what I suspect happens behind the scenes. Channels of communication exist between Labour and the LDs (they always have) and that seems to surprise some on here. The public rhetoric is one thing - the private words are probably much more conciliatory and pave the ground for the possibility of a more convivial post-election climate between the parties than existed in 2010.

    Very true . However these are pbtories we are talking about , not known as a group for their commonsense .

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited March 2013
    Charles said:


    Chose Labour - perfidious/inconsistent (how can they switch on economic policy so quickly?)

    Labour wont offer a different economic policy to the other main parties at the next GE.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I have been watching a rugby game with Leicester playing Northampton.

    Neither team has the name on the shirt, which is full of sponsors logos etc.

    The leicester team is denoted by deep blue on the score box on the screen, but are in fact wearing white shirts with pale blue stripes.

    The Northampton team are denoted as green in said box, but are wearing black shirts with green stripes.

    - or it could be the other way round.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2013
    It's Easter's Eve...and we have the annual dose of King of the Kings...it started at 9:30 and it's still on...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The number of non county council by elections pending now totals 126 . The majority will be fought on May 2nd although 4 are being held on April 25th and a few will be held on May 9th .
    65 are Conservative held , 36 Labour , 20 Lib Dem , 3 Green and 2 others .
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I'd say the Liberal Democrats would face a difficult choice in 2015 if they got it between the parties. There'd be lots to think about. The cardinal rule is never prop up a sinking ship (to mix metaphors) but if Labour fail to secure a majority in 2015 then presumably the Tories won't look like the 'sinking ship' (and neither will Labour).

    In my opinion, they've paid a price for going into coalition, but I wouldn't like to speculate on whether that price has proven, or will prove, worth paying. I can't say that I would have done differently in 2010 and I suspect power will prove as attractive in 2015. (I believe that the Liberal Democrats will do better than expected [i.e. a modest fall only] in 2015 and so this all helps.)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    It's interesting that Stodge and Mark S both think that continuing the coalition is the most likely LibDem decision if other things are equal (say Con/Lab 300 each). I'd have thought it unwise - they need one term in partnership (whether coalition or not) with each of the other parties, so they can demonstrate that they're an in dependent force and not a Conservative spare wheel.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @NickPalmer

    Surely, in a situation where it's their choice to make, the Lib Dems should go for the party that offers them most of their manifesto?

    If they were looking to their electoral fortunes alone they should force a minority administration or grand coalition.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Lib Dems should be aiming for a coalition with Labour next. First, to show their flexibility and second, to teach Labour that they shouldn't be afraid of coalitions. The Conservatives have nothing much more to offer them.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777

    It's Easter's Eve...and we have the annual dose of King of the Kings...it started at 9:30 and it's still on...

    Buona Pasqua Andrea

  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    I don't see Ed Miliband as Prime Ministerial material.

    I wonder how many of the electorate will feel the same?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    For German-speaking electoral system nerds with nothing better to do on a Saturday night (surely a select band), here is a treat: a calculation of how AMS in Austria potentially means that more votes gets you fewer seats:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2013/2013031501.html

    The reason is that the top-up seats may be cheaper, so if you do well enough to get a list seat you may end up worse off.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    stjohn said:

    It's Easter's Eve...and we have the annual dose of King of the Kings...it started at 9:30 and it's still on...

    Buona Pasqua Andrea

    Many Thanks John. Good Easter to you and your family too

  • Meanwhile, a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times today reveals that 49% of the public believes the Anglican church is wrong to oppose gay marriage. A significant minority (37%) agrees with its stance.
  • Paywall, looks like Lord Howard, David Davis and Keith Vaz are about to go medieval on the Met's bottom, re the plebgate CPS report leaking

    Last night Keith Vaz, the Labour chairman of the all party home affairs committee, said the leak showed the Met should be stripped of its role in investigating the Mitchell case.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    Happy Easter!

    "Reach out and touch faith"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNd4eocq2K0
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited March 2013
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The most interesting event of the day for me was Animal Kingdom's brilliant win in the Dubai World Cup. He's due to come to Ascot for the Queen Anne and it's a huge regret he wasn't here to take on Frankel. As it is, he looks a real prospect.

    Then we had Shea Shea in the Sprint. I only wish his connections would come to Ascot to take on Black Caviar in the KIng's Stand.

    This is why Ascot in June is so much better than Cheltenham in March - it's a fascinating global meeting, not just a competition between Messrs Henderson, Mullins and Nicholls.

    Haven't been to either of them but if I had to choose one, cheltenham a million times over !

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    @Sunil

    Not tbat happy - the video doesn't work in the US :-(
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    As the actor Richard Wilson said on GMTV just after Miliband was elected leader - "if I can imagine David Cameron as Prime Minister, I can certainly imagine Ed Miliband as Prime Minister".

    I seem to remember PB Tories were incredulous when I quoted that at the time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Right booked a bed for the Dirty Dicks Trip. Just hope they aren't any snorers in the dorm ;p
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Thanks Sunil:

    It sounds like a bad Bay City Rollers song.....
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Six men arrested in Peterborough in what police believe to be the country's biggest ever grooming case:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/peterborough-police-smash-biggest-child-sex-1794787
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    It's less than a week until the Legends Football League starts its season. I doubt you've heard of these 'legends', but they certainly look good..

    http://www.lflus.com/
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    tim said:

    The bedroom tax is amazing, how did the posh boys let that through?

    tim said:

    The bedroom tax is amazing, how did the posh boys let that through?

    All those country houses with 20 bedrooms, not applicable for the new tax when a spare room for a disabled carer is seen as a means for additional taxation.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    Did you hear about the barber who forgot to set his clocks one hour forward in March? He was running on Daylight Shaving Time!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Did you hear about the barber who forgot to set his clocks one hour forward in March? He was running on Daylight Shaving Time!

    - and he has a German partner called Herr Kutz ;-)

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2013
    @Socrtaes

    'Detectives fear those numbers could easily reach more than 100 in a case potentially bigger than the Rochdale grooming scandal.'

    Another day another city and potentially even worse than before,if that's possible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Hmms.. Whats the time !
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    john_zims said:

    @Socrtaes

    'Detectives fear those numbers could easily reach more than 100 in a case potentially bigger than the Rochdale grooming scandal.'

    Another day another city and potentially even worse than before,if that's possible.

    How appropriate that it's in 'Peter'borough ;-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    ...
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    What's all this I'm reading in people's comments about the Daily Telegraph going to pay-per-view or whatever-it's-called? I've been the the DT website and it hasn't asked me to subscribe to anything or pay for anything.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    John, it's like the FT - you get a set number of articles per month for free, but if you want more you have to subscribe.

    I don't think I'm going to reach the threshold somehow.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Ex-cabinet minister Andrew Mitchell has launched a stinging attack on Scotland Yard over its inquiry into the 'plebgate' row.

    In a letter to the Independent Police Complaints Commission, he claims the force leaked contents of its own report.

    His letter accuses the police of a "dishonest and illicit attempt to blacken my name and destroy my career".

    The Metropolitan Police said inquiries into the matter were continuing."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21985955
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    New post on the Thaddeus the Sixth blog:
    "Review: Exiles of Arcadia (Legionnaire) by James Gawley":
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    "900,000 choose to come off sickness benefit ahead of tests
    Nearly 900,000 people who were on incapacity benefit dropped their claim to the payments rather than undergo a tough medical test, latest government figures show."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9963012/900000-choose-to-come-off-sickness-benefit-ahead-of-tests.html
  • The 2015 GE will be between 3 forms of failed Social Democracy, stretching back five decades under CanLabLib - and UKIP.

    That means that, by 2020, the EU and UK will be so comprehensive screwed, that it will take the rest of this century to get back into balance.

    2012/3 Welfare bill = £207 billion pa
    Excessive Govt spending over a sensible level; = £200 billion pa.

    Go figure, as they say in the US of A.
This discussion has been closed.