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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » You can get 11/8 on Corbyn not being leader at general election. Why I’m not tempted
Ladbroke make it longer than evens, 11/8, that Corbyn will still be leader at GE2020
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seq http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/corbyn-labour-leader-exit-date 9-2 2020 Corbyn exit.
to mention aircraft carriers on this thread !
It is as simple as that.
Not again, I think it was @taffys who noted it as Top Trumps.
34% of those who voted for Jez think he will be never be PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUkeoXDWwAAas6u.jpg
They should be named the Longshanks and the Margaret Thatcher
Putin's statement on the plane will be of significant interest.
Edited extra bit: incidentally, one can neither confirm nor deny that 'frigate' is code for 'elite enormo-haddock attack squad', as referred to in the SDSR.
Enormo-haddock deployment and procurement remains Top Secret.
I'd be unsurprised if Jezza was still in place a year from now. And if he's replaced, it's going to be a cookie cutter hard-Lefter.
The people's flag is deepest red,
It shrouded oft our martyred dead
And ere their limbs grew stiff and cold,
Their hearts' blood dyed its every fold.
So raise the scarlet standard high,
Beneath its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here
Note the last two lines. That's how he sees things and it's why he will not go peacefully.
Corbyn could well increase them yet again in inner London.
You don't need to be a clairvoyant to work the rest of it.
I still have a fear the contest will be between Liam Fox and Owen Paterson (that still gives me nightmares)
Russian jets violate Turkey (And so NATO) airspace. Trident not used.
At least net immigration will no longer be a problem.
"The absence of an alternative who has a clear path to victory over the Tories makes the choice easy. If such an alternative appeared, people would consider it, but at present the choice is someone who speaks for us and...not very much. Certainly I am not minded ever to vote for one of the people who are indulging in whinging and sniping without a coherent idea of their own, and I suspect others feel the same."
Though I take your point Labour supporters above all want an effective opposition. I find nothing more frustrating than watching the Tories prance around like peacocks with no opposition because Corbyn's Labour Party don't know how to oppose
But it's not an argument to abandon principle. Eventually you have to decide what you think, after as much input and discussion as you can (or are willing to) handle. Once you've decided what it is, you should argue the case for it, and I don't see a case for pretending to believe something else in order to get elected and then either do what you privately think is wrong, or get elected and then renege.
The way that Tony Blair squared the circle was to find plenty of things that we positively liked - minimum wage, action against discrimination, investment in the NHS, FOIA (even if he later regretted it himself), the Northern Ireland agreement - which allowed us to feel the package as a whole was good. That started to break down after Iraq and by 2015 we'd really run pretty dry on consensus improvements - I wasn't against an electricity price freeze, for instance, but it wasn't worth getting excited about. Centrists need a new project with positively attractive content.
What they need to ensure is that Labour aren't replaced by the Lib Dems as the natural opposition. That seems like an easy task, or at least easier than going from a crushing defeat in 2015 to winning in 2020.
The wild card is going to be whether the unions continue to financially support Corbynite Labour. An army marches on its stomach etc.
Wasting time mucking about with Corbyn stops us all getting there.
First up the next GE must be around a 1-2 shot (Or lower) to take place in 2020.
Secondly, the Conservatives simply must be favourites to win the particular contest in terms of getting in the next Prime Minister. Push comes to shove, you can add the DUP and UUP onto the Tory numbers.
Just like Ed Miliband, Corbyn will exit with a General Election defeat. People always speculate when will such and such go. Most of the time it is after a GE defeat.
All logically adds up to him leaving in 2020.
http://www.scotland-pictures.com/images/vital-spark.jpg
0-100 8/1
101-200 11/5
201+ 1/2
Makes me feel all smug and superior
Unbelievable.
On the plane: Sky News had a radar graphic released by the Turks which appeared to show the plane briefly crossing (perhaps twice) into Turkish territory.
@JohnRentoul: / @hopisen Time for the Labour Party to have a Clause I moment https://t.co/SEMXcbd4uU
Could Corbyn be in breach of Labour Party rules?
So you're suggesting HMS Natty Shortcock ?
71% of Corbyn voters didn't mind if their policies stop them winning elections.
Whether that's still true now would be an interesting question.
It's just that Corbyn supporters preferred what he was offering, and derided the alternatives as empty.
To argue that 'Centrists' need to offer members such policies just after having rejected them in favour of something more radical is merely refusing to take responsibility for your own choices.
This is a government getting an easy ride , long term this isn't actually good for the Tories either.
* Labour third among pensioners.
* Nearly third among soon to be pensioners (55+)
* Third in Scotland
* Nearly third among C2 voters
* Third in East England, and close to third in West Mids and SE.
There is of course no rule that says a party cannot continue to be elected to govern for decades. It has happened, with greater or lesser success, in other countries and I see no reason why it could not happen here.
Extraordinary session of @NATO's North Atlantic Council will be held today following Turkey's downing of a Russian jet
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.