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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Republican TV debate was the best so far but won’t change anything
Overnight we have had the latest TV debate in the search to find the Republican nominee for next year’s White House Race. Compares with the last such event a couple of weeks ago which was poorly moderated this was a far better organised and much more inormative
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PS Did
"Tt" - missing middle "i" ?!?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34777243
The example on the story seems utterly reasonable to me: if the college authorities had concerns about radicalisation, they should report it.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/analysis-sharp-policy-divisions-emerge-awkward-republican-debate/story?id=35075716
Krauthammer, on another channel, said the debate was more substantive and therefore more boring (hmm!), so probably hadn't changed much. Another piece said Christie did really well in the 2nd division debate, though IMO it's probably too late for him to get back in the game.
Rubio is a slick operator who looks presidential ..he's probably the only one who can beat Hillary
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/10/republican-debate-outsiders-volatile-substantive
If he appeals most in the swing states of Ohio and Florida (and I simply don't know, as I don't have my finger on the pulse of American politics) then the Republicans would be mad not to pick him.
Yes Rubio is the only one in the zeit geist who can gain votes in those crucial swing states ; I think he can win in Ohio , Colorado , Nevada , N H and Iowa
Did I just hear Ted Cruz advocate the Gold Standard?
That said, Rubio should stand a better chance and if Trump does get the nomination, I'd still expect him to gaffe badly enough at some point to cost himself the election - but it's a probability not a certainty.
Which is why the Republicans will choose someone utterly unelectable.
For general commentary I subscribe to http://www.cicero.de/, which is roughly like the Independent - not firmly in any political camp and keen to be challenging: they intrigue me and irritate me by turns, which I suppose is a good thing. Der Spiegel (which has an English edition which others here have quoted) is mildly left of centre (though firmly anti-communist) but probably the most serious widely-read political publication in Germany. As Hurst Llama observed, their articles are very, very long and detailed, like The Economist on steroids.
It's hard to think of anything less stage managed than "Fuck off", "OK, I will."
As I said, I'm not American, but if I was I do wonder what I'd think about immigration - Rubio's weak point.
A regular solution (advocated by Bush here) seems to be to grant amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants who have already arrived in the US, and give them a route to obtaining legal status - mainly from South America, and Mexico in particular.
I don't see how that addresses the issue of illegal immigration and I'd expect the Republicans to have more of a handle on it.
Republicans are usually portrayed as folksy and provincial prone to evangelical fervour but with Rubio you have a Republican Obama who can appeal to the young and non white ; he seems like the obvious nominee to me and would give him a more than 50/50 chance of beating Hillary
But anyone who likes Egyptian stuff, we've gathered together a bunch of nice artefacts for an exhibition at our place next year. Everyone welcome
http://www.twotempleplace.org/woodgrain/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/The-Appearance-of-Beauty.pdf
*gingerly comes back* "Are you sure you want me to Fuck off?"
I don't buy the whole "he's hispanic" thing.
I suspect the voters will want someone young and fresh , after all isn't that part of the reason a little known and inexperienced Senator from Chicago was able to beat her ?
On Carson: it is possible to recover from a lame performance, but recovering from ridicule is difficult.
I was thinking of something Cameron should include as part of the process. He should set up a permanent cross-party committee on EU Competences, which, if it feels that the EU or the ECJ has overstepped its Treaty abilities, can make a recommendation for a further referendum.
I know there are always issues with any donors or supporters, but given that the TSSA havea direct interest in the Tube - one of the Mayor's primary responsibilities - this strikes me as a really serious conflict of interest
The BBC's partiality is poisonous to British public debate.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34777243
#EUref Poll
England
By voting intention
Remain (Leave)
LibDems 58% (26%)
Labour 55% (28%)
Conservatives 35% (48%)
UKIP 4% (91%)
If you look closely you may recognise my avatar's playmate
* Thinking of the delightfully charming Italian
I support the candidate that would serve me best, you support the one that would serve you best.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/10/camerons-renegotiation-demands-met-with-qualified-support-in-eu
One stood out for me:
"In Berlin, Angela Merkel said she had been in touch with Cameron and he was bringing “no surprises to the table”. The German chancellor said she was willing to work with him on Britain’s proposals and that “if one has the spirit that we can solve these problems, then I’m convinced it can be done” – although she too described some demands as “easier than others”."
One negotiant at least has been warmed up enough.
Group that has interest in tube endorses candidate who most closely reflects those interests.
Gen Houghton in another guise.
All good.
Conflicts of itnerest don't enter into it,
I will see if my son would like to come along as well. He's in his final year at the Courtauld though he's currently studying Indian art, which he loves.
They are basically paying to get "their guy" on the other side of the table.
Of course they are entitled to vote for him, but they are providing him with a headquarters, a salaried team and a call centre.
There are only a small group of nations that matter in the EU, the ones who really foot the bill and drive the EU economy.
There seems to be enough popular support across Northern and Western Europe regarding immigration and welfare which is the issue most of interest to the British public.
The Danish prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, tweeted that Cameron’s speech and letter formed a “good basis for concrete negotiations”, but that the process would be “difficult. I hope we will succeed because we need a strong UK in EU.”
If that view is widely held then Cameron has a strong hand, if not he will struggle in negotiations over the topic(s) of greatest importance and salience to the most vocal opponents of EU in the UK. That would be hard for him.
Cameron is relying on her to square the more recalcitrant EU member states, which she is uniquely placed to do.
The hard one is EU migration - I suspect (1) a longer transitional period for any future EU member state will be agreed, at 15+ years and (2) all "normal" benefits (including JSA, Child Tax Credit, Housing Benefit) will be restricted for EU migrants for up to 1 year, but not Working Tax Credit.
On the last one, Cameron will argue it's not a big deal as he's cutting WTA anyway. And I think he'll claim that as a win in the round, and run with it.
I'm sure you are that paragon of virtue, but 99.9% of people vote out of self-interest. And rightly so. Plus your idea of decency and fairness probably differs from many others'...and we all know that once decency and fairness are believed to be objective truths...socialism isn't far behind...
I think there will be something that emerges, eventually. Probably in May or June 2017, ahead of a late 2017 referendum.
Ultimately, you need 27 different groups, all of which have different priorities and their own domestic political issues, to agree.
As we are major contributors, and no-one wants to pay more, something will probably emerge. But it is by no means certain.
The idea that you can stage manage 27 different governments is ridiculous.
He who pays the piper and all that......
He is desperate for us to remain part of the EU, as are the rest of the EU... In that situation, who wouldn't organise a set of demands that don't change much but might be just enough to convince the British public they do?
This is equivalent to Farage being sent to negotiate a deal to get us into the EU with a load of people who want us out
I'm not sure what you would rather they did? Not endorse him, but they have members who presumably want them to achieve their vision of the tube. Not offer him resources? I can live with them giving him a phone and a team.
He asked for a yard,
And received a foot.
But when he looked closer
It was much less than an inch !
The issue is whether Khan realises he has a potential conflict of interest and how he addresses it. He needs to persuade everyone else that he will govern in the interests of all and not just those who have funded him and that he won't be influenced by his financial backers simply because they are funding him rather than because of the merits of the arguments.
I would say, however, that the £3 so any old Communist could vote in Labour election was a new feature. I remain convinced, based on no evidence whatsoever, that longer standing party members would not have been swept up in a #Jezwecan fervour if the £3ers had not been around.
In US, primaries have been open for a long time, at least to registered voters and in some states anyone, I believe. So there's nothing new about the GOP selectorate in a way there was with Corbyn.
My mums birthday and I think she'd prefer I did that!
Probably a lead of 2% or less for Leave in England/Wales would be needed for that to be a factor.
I was thinking more of Leave targeting more Labour voters, rather than relying on the more fickle floating Conservatives who may be all too easily swayed by Cameron.
Plus ca change.
Indeed they do because - especially after a bit more backtracking and horse trading - they will amount to precisely nothing of significance.
This is a million miles from the handbag approach, that's for sure. There is nothing being proposed that is even remotely similar to the rebate Thatcher got - it is just Foreign Office dissembling.
You son should definitely come along - we have a close partnership with the Courtauld as part of the idea is that it gives an opportunity for one of their MA Curatorial students to curate a major exhibition - Martin Caiger-Smith from the Courtauld works closely with us on the project. (And it is probably 100 yards from his school...)
" A major study published recently found that many members of the public can forecast economic and political events at least as accurately as the experts, and that some of them do consistently better than the pundits and economists we always turn to for advice.
Pollsters proved hopeless at forecasting our general election, and economists had little clue that the price of oil would plummet at the end of last year. It is a lesson of the modern world that having more data does not inevitably mean more accurate forecasting."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11986994/The-migrant-crisis-is-a-mere-gust-of-the-hurricane-that-will-soon-engulf-Europe.html
So, when the TSSA says we want £10 an hour more for our drivers (making up numbers) will Khan say "yes" or "no".
Given that the TSSA may not support his re-election bid if he doesn't give them what he wants how can he be a steward of public funds in this case?
The usual approach would be that he recuse himself from this part of the portfolio, but given the significance of transport it's not really practical in this case
"According to the UN, fully half of all the population increase globally in the next 35 years is expected to be in one continent: Africa. What is more, that increase will mainly be in poorer, less stable countries, alongside massive growth in numbers in the most war-torn areas of the Middle East, such as Yemen and Iraq.
The numbers that emerge are stark. The increase in Africa’s population alone is set to be 1.3 billion by 2050, about two-and-a-half times the entire population of the EU today. Put another way, the number of people in Africa and western Asia is expected to increase by over 110,000 every single day for decades to come.
Such figures put into perspective a crisis caused by the arrival of several thousand migrants a day. What we have seen in recent months is only a hint of what might happen next, mere gusts of wind before the approach of a hurricane."
Perhaps there's a Tory Peebie who can explain to me why it's responsible of the Government to allow left-wing ideas to be legal
I doubt Jezza's vision of what is good for "all" would coincide with mine. I know from reading CiF that Dave's vision isn't shared by a few btl commentators.
If Khan accepts the TSSA dollar it is because he shares their vision that tube drivers should get £100,000 pa and a free owl, or whatever it is. And we price that into our assessment of him and his overall manifesto.
Before I receive the usual veiled accusations of racism; I wouldn't change my view if they were cricket playing, tea drinking whities; my argument about immigration has always been based on scale, pace and sustainability.
I appear to have a problem with my main account. It won't let me log in, and there is a little sticker by my posts saying I am banned. I don't think I've broken any rules (please let me know if I have!), so I am guessing it has been triggered automatically due to posting from an African IP address. Could someone let me know how I could release this?
Many thanks!
JEO
EDIT: Sorry didn't realise I was responding to someone who is banned.