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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » John Bickley looks set to be UKIP’s choice in Oldham & Royt
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » John Bickley looks set to be UKIP’s choice in Oldham & Royton
One of the huge shocks, and what in retrospect turned out to be a good pointer to GE2015, was the way that UKIP ran LAB so close in the October 2014 by-election Heywood & Middleton which is very close to Oldham.
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http://www.oldham.gov.uk/gb2
We're just at the start of a Conservative majority, it's been a safe Labour seat for quite some time, and whilst Corbyn's madder than a mongoose there's no risk of a Labour win here putting him anywhere near the levers of power.
This will be the first test of Labour's swollen membership and the capability of the party to organise it.
Jamie Ross @JamieRoss7 3 mins3 minutes ago
Tom Harris tells me he hasn't quit Labour after this message, just meant he was "giving up ranting on Facebook".
I backed UKIP on here at 5/2 at first, but managed to back and lay my way to 14/1
The only way Ukip can win here is by tactical Tory votes... I can't see it myself
- The relatively high Asian vote in this seat means that the demographics are less favourable than Heywood & Middleton
- The Labour majority they are seeking to overturn is bigger than it was in H & M
- UKIP nationally are a little weaker than they were at the time of H & M
- They have very little time to organise themselves in this seat
Whilst upsets do occur quite frequently in by-elections, I find it hard to see anything other than a Labour hold here. 8/1 on UKIP might just be edging into value as a speculative punt, but I'm sitting this one out.
The other factor is that in Heywood and Middleton UKIP had Ian Warren working for them and they don't have him working for them any more.
“Labour has to abandon anti-austerity – a term that has never really resonated with the public, despite the left’s best efforts – in favour of being pro something else… If Labour can answer these questions, it will be in a far better position: able to commit to higher wages, reduced spending on social security without throttling working families, rebalancing the economy, preparing the country for future shocks, and having a positive vision rather than simply being against Osborne’s failure… the real answer is not to gloat over his bungled mess, but to find a positive alternative that inspires the country. Over to you, Labour.”
Higher wages?
Reduced social security spending?
Focus on economy and rebalancing?
Positive vision?
Mate, have you thought about joining the Tory party?
If UKIP did win, they would have two MPs: one sitting in what has been a fairly Conservative seat since the 1970s (*), and the other sitting in what is a solid Labour seat. UKIP would then have two MPs whose constituents have generally held widely different political outlooks.
This might be a recipe for trouble, and/or a sign that UKIP can appeal strongly across the traditional left-right political split.
(*) 1997 and 2001 in the predecessor Harwich seat being exceptions.
Yeah, probably spoke out against Seamus Milne or something.
I wonder what first attracted such a nasty, race baiting, obsessed with Muslims guy to join UKIP?
Read what you like into that.
It has fluctuated between c.45% and 59% according to the relative popularity of the leader and party since 1979.
Top end is Blair landslide, bottom end is Brown or Foot debacle.
And the thread will get boring if some of the Kippers take offence.
If the dead can vote*, why can't they stand?
* TM @Alanbrooke
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34708640
What is it about Germany and corruption at the moment? VW, football, Siemens etc.
Incidentally, we don't hear much of Amjad Bashir since he left Ukip to join the tories.
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/661475932209811456
It does the rest of his media career good as well: if he says something like that, he's likely to be invited to appear elsewhere to explain himself.
People take columnists too seriously (sorry, SeanT).
Look how the British Indian supporters boo Moeen Ali
Would the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt have any reason to bomb a Russian plane?
Damages the government, which is their enemy.
8/1 seems over-generous though.
https://youtu.be/gbKmnuJPCDE?t=22
(Edge of Darkness, BBC Drama).
Cyclefree said:
It most certainly is not fine by me, Mr Llama. I cannot have my Garden (special Rose section) fund depleted in such a cause. I am sure, being the honourable gentleman you are, you will pay my share.
(Mr Llama)
Mrs Free, as, I hope, a gentleman my first reaction was to say of course I will pay your share. Then I remembered that you are in fact a lawyer and did some quick sums in my head. Alas, ma'am, I am afraid that if I paid your extra penny in income tax it would stretch my meagre pension beyond the point where I can afford to buy Thomas the Rescue his roast chicken, prawns and tuna. He would in fact be reduced to eating cat food and he would not like that.
Mr Llama: you spoil that cat. Thomas is a very lucky feline. He eats better than me!
But I will let you off.
Perhaps the Weekly Scotland Independence Referendum could be paid for by a special tax on PBers insulting each other about their knowledge of EU treaties. There would probably be enough money left over to pay off the deficit.
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/cricket/moeen-ali-interview-ill-take-fight-to-boo-boys-says-england-bowler-9857048.html
Two things to look out for. First, turnout - how many voters feel motivated to put their cross in Labour's box on a cold Thursday evening in December? Secondly, the Lib Dem performance. In times gone by they would have been the contender. This time round, they will aspire to get close to saving their deposit.
(I rather miss him.)
His batting average in 2015 : 26.25
Bowling average in 2014 : 28.09
Bowling average in 2015 : 43.65
Other players would have been dropped by now.
In SA I guess Hakes will open and Ali will be back at 8 or fighting it out with Rashid for that spot
I mean, what can you say about a country where this sort of thing was thought to be a good idea by a major institution?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/may/19/sex-party-reward-german-salesmen
Worth remembering that in Germany insider dealing was only made a criminal offence relatively recently, certainly later than in the UK. And it takes quite a long time after that before those in the business really understand that it is wrong and a bit longer after that before they act on that understanding.
And even now I'm not sure all get it.
Last time a young man in one of the local City bars was heard saying: "It's not crooked. It's smart."
Oh dear........
This should be a good test of my theory that elections are increasingly about race rather than class.
Let's look at the following:- Labour = Muslim vote; UKIP = white working class vote, Tories = white middle-class (and aspirational) vote, LibDems = non-white, non-Muslim vote.
Does anyone have any census or other data for these categories?
Planting someone who is not local happens all the time and is criticised by other parties (unless they've done the same) when it happens. Though realistically the best candidate may not always be local. I'm not sure how race plays into it though, we shouldn't judge any candidate on their race.
In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/oldhamwestandroyton/
The local election results match up pretty well with the general election result.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/03/refugees-plead-for-release-raf-base-cyprus
And they might recover a bit.
I don't judge anybody by their race, candidate or not, have a look through the thread.
If I was a recent immigrant perhaps, but any older generation I would vote Cons to aspire or UKIP to haul up the ladder behind me.
I don't think anyone has trouble finding immigrants of all flavours being at least as much and often more anti-new-immigrant than anyone else.
Plus all this new (small "n") Lab class war stuff means nothing to immigrants as indeed it means nothing to anyone sensible.
Thatcher's Clothes And Jewels To Be Sold Off
http://news.sky.com/gallery/1580841/thatchers-wardrobe-to-be-sold-off
http://www.politico.eu/article/12-reasons-why-cameron-will-lose-on-brexit-tories-euroskeptic/
It reads more as '12 reasons not to vote Out', with the usual scaremongering about Hedge Funds and Media ownership. But that's what one would expect from a convicted fraudster and former Minister for Europe.