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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the CON GE2015 manifesto had been specific about the tax

SystemSystem Posts: 11,687
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the CON GE2015 manifesto had been specific about the tax credit change it’s arguable that they would NOT have won

“.. the reason David Cameron chose not to include this policy in his manifesto – and the reason he promised before the election not to do it – is because he knows if he had done, he would not have been elected. Pushing working families into poverty even goes against the most right wing Tory rhetoric about those mythical “benefit scroungers”.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    First.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,864
    Minor money for me I fear.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    'I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May'

    Your having a laugh ?

    At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    john_zims said:

    'I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May'

    Your having a laugh ?

    At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !

    And look where that got them (us)!

    Still hoping for an upturn in fortunes. Otrherwise it's back to my past; (Labour)
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    As if the SNP can be regarded as experts in mind reading.
    Did the Tories promise a big increase in the minimum wage in the election? Was the increase in free child care mentioned?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Possibly. If Labour and the Lib Dems had also been more specific, the Conservative victory might have been greater. Can't look at one party in isolation.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Let's not forget LDs welching on boundaries in the Coalition Agreement here.
    john_zims said:

    'I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May'

    Your having a laugh ?

    At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Surely people know they're voting for lower spending and lower taxes with the Tories (Unless you're a pensioner :) )
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Tories have always wanted a reputation for being economical.

    It seems that they have achieved that. Albeit with the truth.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Possibly. If Labour and the Lib Dems had also been more specific, the Conservative victory might have been greater. Can't look at one party in isolation.

    Have the SNP been specific yet about their proposed currency?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Jonathan, you do recall Labour had a manifesto commitment not to introduce top-up fees, which they did, and not to increase income tax, which they did?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,864
    It's a question of degree - saying you will do one thing in your Manifesto and then doing the exact opposite is political suicide as LDs can attest.

    As I recall, the Conservatives spoke airily of making cuts in welfare without being specific. Had they specifically targetted pensioner benefits, that would probably have been tantamount to political suicide as well. As it is, there's the unpleasant sense of deliberate obfuscation - the absence of clarity replacing defined policy objectives.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    stodge said:

    It's a question of degree - saying you will do one thing in your Manifesto and then doing the exact opposite is political suicide as LDs can attest.

    As I recall, the Conservatives spoke airily of making cuts in welfare without being specific. Had they specifically targetted pensioner benefits, that would probably have been tantamount to political suicide as well. As it is, there's the unpleasant sense of deliberate obfuscation - the absence of clarity replacing defined policy objectives.

    I think the objectives were very clearly defined - reduce the welfare bill. What wasn't defined was the mechanism. And therein lies the problem for all parties; principle is fine but the devil always lies in the detail. Many people want the welfare bill reduced - as long as it doesn't really affect anyone.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited October 2015
    Fourteenth!

    Edit: Apologies, I'm on a conference call and bored
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    john_zims said:

    'I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May'

    Your having a laugh ?

    At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !

    And look where that got them (us)!

    Still hoping for an upturn in fortunes. Otrherwise it's back to my past; (Labour)
    Does this mean you only support fortunate parties? If so, I'd advise againstt Labour....
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    " Mythical benefits scroungers ". For God's sake, they're the Nat base.
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    Let's not forget LDs welching on boundaries in the Coalition Agreement here.

    john_zims said:

    'I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May'

    Your having a laugh ?

    At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !

    and promises for a referendum on the EC.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    Mr. Jonathan, you do recall Labour had a manifesto commitment not to introduce top-up fees, which they did, and not to increase income tax, which they did?

    Labour didn't increase income tax....but they did put up national insurance. As you say, Labour were probably hiding details of what they were going to do, but they get to keep their powder dry.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    john_zims said:

    'I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May'

    Your having a laugh ? At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !

    It was the Tories who tripled them, which was something they always wanted to do. Labour would have done exactly the same. The Lib Dems were stuck. End of story.

    The Tories got away with it because they had been in a Coalition Government, and far too many people thought that they were reformed characters. The electorate know better now.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Mr. Jonathan, you do recall Labour had a manifesto commitment not to introduce top-up fees, which they did, and not to increase income tax, which they did?

    I understand why you would prefer to talk about anything else. Labour paid the price of defeat for their mistakes. Sadly the Tories are in power now and they are accountable for what they do.
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    From the perspective of the media war the Govt has put forward third rate communicators, such as John Hayes last week and Matthew Hancock this week. Also its analysis of the impacts clearly overlooked the need to pull together enough examples of how people could reduce or eliminate the impact. A classic example being the self employed QT lady who apparently does not lose anything. Awful presentation, a clear lack of sensitivity analysis in the data forecasts and failing to present an optimistic picture of how strivers could work themselves into a better outcome.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    edited October 2015
    TudorRose said:

    john_zims said:

    'I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May'

    Your having a laugh ?

    At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !

    And look where that got them (us)!

    Still hoping for an upturn in fortunes. Otrherwise it's back to my past; (Labour)
    Does this mean you only support fortunate parties? If so, I'd advise againstt Labour....
    No, I'm looking for a party which is interested in everyone, not just the fortunate.
    And before anyone suggests UKIP, back to Fortress Britain is not attractive at all. At all!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited October 2015
    I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May.

    Hardly. Parties will always make and presumably always have made vague and general statements about many things (they don't want to be pinned down if they can help it, and they know they will have to do some unpopular things if they get into power), and how much they get away with it will depend on the goodwill they have fostered elsewhere, strength of the opposition (and vague/generalness of their own statements) and simple chance, as there seems no rhyme or reason to what we the public will and will not get upset about, even if we are informed in advance or polls suggest we are generally in favour until it actually appears in reality.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Next time it’ll harder not to be specific

    The same was said in 2001, 2005 and 2010. – It matters not a jot about Manifesto promises, you simply break the promises you made and go to court to prove they’re worthless.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    From the perspective of the media war the Govt has put forward third rate communicators, such as John Hayes last week and Matthew Hancock this week. Also its analysis of the impacts clearly overlooked the need to pull together enough examples of how people could reduce or eliminate the impact. A classic example being the self employed QT lady who apparently does not lose anything. Awful presentation, a clear lack of sensitivity analysis in the data forecasts and failing to present an optimistic picture of how strivers could work themselves into a better outcome.

    Matthew Hancock manages to wind me up even when I find myself agreeing with his points ! His manner is awful, agreed.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Quite, Labourites take note.

    Next time it’ll harder not to be specific

    The same was said in 2001, 2005 and 2010. – It matters not a jot about Manifesto promises, you simply break the promises you made and go to court to prove they’re worthless.

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    OGH links to an Indy article by Liam Young who was chairman of his school's student body and aspires to be PM ;)
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    Ever wished you could back a candidate who is according to polls at least 30 ahead at 1.5?

    Now you can.

    Iowa Democratic nomination.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited October 2015
    Are the UK payments to the EC largely based on 1 percentage point of the (usually) 20 percentage points levied. Then any deductions in the form of programmed spending within the UK for programmes such as CAP and "poor" area assistance, reduce this to a net figure.
    1. Is that largely correct
    2. Does anyone have a brief summary of the basis that Norway's net payment is arrived at?
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Labour are accumulating baggage and they arent even in Government.
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    Pulpstar said:

    From the perspective of the media war the Govt has put forward third rate communicators, such as John Hayes last week and Matthew Hancock this week. Also its analysis of the impacts clearly overlooked the need to pull together enough examples of how people could reduce or eliminate the impact. A classic example being the self employed QT lady who apparently does not lose anything. Awful presentation, a clear lack of sensitivity analysis in the data forecasts and failing to present an optimistic picture of how strivers could work themselves into a better outcome.

    Matthew Hancock manages to wind me up even when I find myself agreeing with his points ! His manner is awful, agreed.
    Only there because he supports Osborne. Ominous approach to talent picking by a man aiming to be PM.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited October 2015
    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Labour are accumulating baggage and they arent even in Government.
    Arf. - Corbyn’s baggage alone would take up an entire removal van.
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    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Jonathan, you do recall Labour had a manifesto commitment not to introduce top-up fees, which they did, and not to increase income tax, which they did?

    Labour didn't increase income tax....but they did put up national insurance. As you say, Labour were probably hiding details of what they were going to do, but they get to keep their powder dry.
    They did increase income tax for higher payers .... albeit for a few months just as the GE came along. They also increased income tax for all in comparative terms by not increasing the bands in line with inflation. Tax by stealth.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632
    I've been in Edinburgh again today (work this time). When we arrived this morning, my train was greeted by the First Minister...

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/nicola-sturgeon-attends-unveiling-new-6721409

    Heading back south now, enjoying the complimentary Speckled Hen in 1st Class.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Jonathan, you do recall Labour had a manifesto commitment not to introduce top-up fees, which they did, and not to increase income tax, which they did?

    Labour didn't increase income tax....but they did put up national insurance. As you say, Labour were probably hiding details of what they were going to do, but they get to keep their powder dry.
    They did increase income tax for higher payers .... albeit for a few months just as the GE came along. They also increased income tax for all in comparative terms by not increasing the bands in line with inflation. Tax by stealth.
    Yes, the fiscal drag was immense. Five years ago the tax free allowance was £6k, it will be over £11k next year. Thats a £1000 less tax for *every* basic tax payer every year.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Tory MPs have a new sledging technique in the Commons: yelling "purge" at any moderate Labour MP that stands up: https://t.co/A8b7QVP8Nj

    @MrHarryCole: “It’s revenge for when they used to shout ‘Labour gain’ at us whenever a marginal MP popped up at PMQs” https://t.co/A8b7QVP8Nj
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632
    On topic, it was clear to anyone with half a brain that the Conservatives knew exactly where they were planning to make welfare cuts ahead of the election, but chose to keep quiet. Anyone who voted for them on that basis - it was your own look-out if you're going to be hit.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Tory MPs have a new sledging technique in the Commons: yelling "purge" at any moderate Labour MP that stands up: https://t.co/A8b7QVP8Nj

    @MrHarryCole: “It’s revenge for when they used to shout ‘Labour gain’ at us whenever a marginal MP popped up at PMQs” https://t.co/A8b7QVP8Nj

    Dont underestimate just how intimidating that is. Ive experienced it in another place. Though of course, the closer you get to the election the greater the resonance.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited October 2015
    @Jonathan

    'Tories have always wanted a reputation for being economical.

    It seems that they have achieved that. Albeit with the truth.'


    Can't recall in the 97 or 01 Labour party manifestos any mention that they would drag the UK into every available war / conflict available.
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    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Pulpstar said:

    From the perspective of the media war the Govt has put forward third rate communicators, such as John Hayes last week and Matthew Hancock this week. Also its analysis of the impacts clearly overlooked the need to pull together enough examples of how people could reduce or eliminate the impact. A classic example being the self employed QT lady who apparently does not lose anything. Awful presentation, a clear lack of sensitivity analysis in the data forecasts and failing to present an optimistic picture of how strivers could work themselves into a better outcome.

    Matthew Hancock manages to wind me up even when I find myself agreeing with his points ! His manner is awful, agreed.
    I have stopped watching interviews with him as he offers nothing new. Only capable of giving the party line, incapable of independent thought.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Tory MPs have a new sledging technique in the Commons: yelling "purge" at any moderate Labour MP that stands up: https://t.co/A8b7QVP8Nj

    @MrHarryCole: “It’s revenge for when they used to shout ‘Labour gain’ at us whenever a marginal MP popped up at PMQs” https://t.co/A8b7QVP8Nj

    Top banter from the Tories.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Government makes false promises before election.
    What's new?

    Voters who are gullible to believe promises before an election should pay the bill for it.

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    The JC piece on Gerald Kaufman is not pretty.

    Does his agent not know when to stop digging?
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
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    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    Talking about silly things governments do:
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/28/army-blimp-goes-out-of-control-menacing-small-towns-and-thrilling-nation.html?

    The price tag for that rogue military airship is 2 billion pounds each, talking about money going up in smoke.
    Even it's acronym costs a ton of money: "Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System, J.L.E.N.S."
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelLCrick: Corbyn policy chief @AndrewFisher79 pulls out of speech to Croydon Central Labour Party AGM tonight at last minute. Mystery as to reasons
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SNP MPs aren't great at predictions - Eck Salmond thought he had won the Indy ref after the polls closed.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    PClipp


    Your having a laugh ? At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !>

    'It was the Tories who tripled them, which was something they always wanted to do. Labour would have done exactly the same. The Lib Dems were stuck. End of story.'


    That's complete bullshit, the Lib Dems could have easily made the the scrapping of tuition fees a red line in their coalition negotiations,they chose not to in spite of every Lib Dem MP making a personal pledge to scrap them.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Well that's a first. A political party gets elected by not being totally transparent about what it might do! Who'd have thunk it. It's almost as bad as not including in its manifesto every bill it might pass and every action it might take. What's the world coming to.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Speedy said:

    Government makes false promises before election.
    What's new?

    Voters who are gullible to believe promises before an election should pay the bill for it.

    I don't mind people being angry at broken promises and other u-turns, so long as it's not pretended it's unique. As you say, we really should not be surprised no matter who wins, though some will prove more egregious offenders than others.
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    notme said:

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
    It could happen but it would be a surprise. Would Corbyn survive it
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    john_zims said:

    'I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May'

    Your having a laugh ?

    At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !

    The LibDems did pay for this I think but you might still be typing if you listed all of the instances of political parties being less than transparent and not paying
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    The only people who read manifestos are your opponents - after the election.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632

    notme said:

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
    It could happen but it would be a surprise. Would Corbyn survive it
    If we lose our majority in Wales and Zac wins in London as well, then things would look shaky.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I was in the Royal Gwent hospital yesterday. My Nan, sadly, got rushed in and died this morning. She was 84 and and had been ill a while. Sad loss, she was a lovely woman.

    My Dad, her son, has been in a care home since March with Alzheimers.

    It was chaos in the hospital. Dreadful scenes. Patients suffering in corridors, nursing literally sprinting about, concerned looking patients and relatives everywhere. Doctors and nurses having an strategy-meeting in the corridor.

    It's less bad where my Dad is, as it's a private home, but even there, the nurses are overwhelmed and have a two-year waiting list for patients.

    Whatever side of the political divide you're on, it's obvious we have big problems with people getting older. Osborne's problems with cutting £4bn of welfare money demonstrates how bloody hard it is to be a politician. I think Osborne is wrong to cut money from lower earners, but where else does he cut it? Because anyone who walks into an A&E dept or a care home will see that cuts can't fall there; those places need huge long-term investment.

    And investment with what? It's hard to invest when we're still £90bn in deficit. Heavily taxing the rich obviously doesn't work, logic will tell you if it did work every govt in the world would be doing it.

    The country is teetering on a cliff-edge of problems. We have thousands of working twenty-somethings who need houses but can't afford them, we have an NHS which needs serious help, we have an ageing population who need care and - at present - there aren't enough people to look after them. It's scary.

    I lived a pretty charmed life and problems only started setting in with my family over the past few years as my grandparents got older (my Dad's illness was freakish). Drawing back the curtain on the world of old age, dementia and crippled old people who survive purely on NHS pills and medicines revealed a world I'd never been aware of before. It sounds dramatic but it does change your outlook.

    I voted Tory at the last GE, but even I'm starting to realise that middle-earners like me will need to start paying more a lot more taxes. I can't see how we are going to afford it all.

    I hope you guys here all live long and charmed lives, but if you do, you may well end up either in a care home or dying in an A&E cubicle like my Nan did this morning. I know there's no nice way to go, but I like to think we can follow the good work the hospice people are doing and make the journey towards death as dignified as possible for as many as possible.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Fenster said:

    I was in the Royal Gwent hospital yesterday. My Nan, sadly, got rushed in and died this morning. She was 84 and and had been ill a while. Sad loss, she was a lovely woman.

    My Dad, her son, has been in a care home since March with Alzheimers.

    It was chaos in the hospital. Dreadful scenes. Patients suffering in corridors, nursing literally sprinting about, concerned looking patients and relatives everywhere. Doctors and nurses having an strategy-meeting in the corridor.

    It's less bad where my Dad is, as it's a private home, but even there, the nurses are overwhelmed and have a two-year waiting list for patients.

    Whatever side of the political divide you're on, it's obvious we have big problems with people getting older. Osborne's problems with cutting £4bn of welfare money demonstrates how bloody hard it is to be a politician. I think Osborne is wrong to cut money from lower earners, but where else does he cut it? Because anyone who walks into an A&E dept or a care home will see that cuts can't fall there; those places need huge long-term investment.

    And investment with what? It's hard to invest when we're still £90bn in deficit. Heavily taxing the rich obviously doesn't work, logic will tell you if it did work every govt in the world would be doing it.

    The country is teetering on a cliff-edge of problems. We have thousands of working twenty-somethings who need houses but can't afford them, we have an NHS which needs serious help, we have an ageing population who need care and - at present - there aren't enough people to look after them. It's scary.

    I lived a pretty charmed life and problems only started setting in with my family over the past few years as my grandparents got older (my Dad's illness was freakish). Drawing back the curtain on the world of old age, dementia and crippled old people who survive purely on NHS pills and medicines revealed a world I'd never been aware of before. It sounds dramatic but it does change your outlook.

    I voted Tory at the last GE, but even I'm starting to realise that middle-earners like me will need to start paying more a lot more taxes. I can't see how we are going to afford it all.

    I hope you guys here all live long and charmed lives, but if you do, you may well end up either in a care home or dying in an A&E cubicle like my Nan did this morning. I know there's no nice way to go, but I like to think we can follow the good work the hospice people are doing and make the journey towards death as dignified as possible for as many as possible.


    Sorry for your news. A loss, even when expected after a good long innings, is tough.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    From the perspective of the media war the Govt has put forward third rate communicators, such as John Hayes last week and Matthew Hancock this week. Also its analysis of the impacts clearly overlooked the need to pull together enough examples of how people could reduce or eliminate the impact. A classic example being the self employed QT lady who apparently does not lose anything. Awful presentation, a clear lack of sensitivity analysis in the data forecasts and failing to present an optimistic picture of how strivers could work themselves into a better outcome.

    Those being put up at present probably have the status of cannon fodder. When the generals turn up you'll know things are getting more serious. In the meantime, the arguments in favour of reducing/ eliminating WTC won't go away.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013

    From the perspective of the media war the Govt has put forward third rate communicators, such as John Hayes last week and Matthew Hancock this week. Also its analysis of the impacts clearly overlooked the need to pull together enough examples of how people could reduce or eliminate the impact. A classic example being the self employed QT lady who apparently does not lose anything. Awful presentation, a clear lack of sensitivity analysis in the data forecasts and failing to present an optimistic picture of how strivers could work themselves into a better outcome.

    Those being put up at present probably have the status of cannon fodder. When the generals turn up you'll know things are getting more serious. In the meantime, the arguments in favour of reducing/ eliminating WTC won't go away.
    Yes, presumably the second- and first-rate communicators are second- and first-rate because they know what not to communicate about.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    Fenster said:

    I was in the Royal Gwent hospital yesterday. My Nan, sadly, got rushed in and died this morning. She was 84 and and had been ill a while. Sad loss, she was a lovely woman.

    My Dad, her son, has been in a care home since March with Alzheimers.

    It was chaos in the hospital. Dreadful scenes. Patients suffering in corridors, nursing literally sprinting about, concerned looking patients and relatives everywhere. Doctors and nurses having an strategy-meeting in the corridor.

    It's less bad where my Dad is, as it's a private home, but even there, the nurses are overwhelmed and have a two-year waiting list for patients.

    Whatever side of the political divide you're on, it's obvious we have big problems with people getting older. Osborne's problems with cutting £4bn of welfare money demonstrates how bloody hard it is to be a politician. I think Osborne is wrong to cut money from lower earners, but where else does he cut it? Because anyone who walks into an A&E dept or a care home will see that cuts can't fall there; those places need huge long-term investment.

    And investment with what? It's hard to invest when we're still £90bn in deficit. Heavily taxing the rich obviously doesn't work, logic will tell you if it did work every govt in the world would be doing it.

    The country is teetering on a cliff-edge of problems. We have thousands of working twenty-somethings who need houses but can't afford them, we have an NHS which needs serious help, we have an ageing population who need care and - at present - there aren't enough people to look after them. It's scary.

    I lived a pretty charmed life and problems only started setting in with my family over the past few years as my grandparents got older (my Dad's illness was freakish). Drawing back the curtain on the world of old age, dementia and crippled old people who survive purely on NHS pills and medicines revealed a world I'd never been aware of before. It sounds dramatic but it does change your outlook.

    I voted Tory at the last GE, but even I'm starting to realise that middle-earners like me will need to start paying more a lot more taxes. I can't see how we are going to afford it all.

    I hope you guys here all live long and charmed lives, but if you do, you may well end up either in a care home or dying in an A&E cubicle like my Nan did this morning. I know there's no nice way to go, but I like to think we can follow the good work the hospice people are doing and make the journey towards death as dignified as possible for as many as possible.

    Many condolences.

    You raise some important issues in a very poignant post.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    PClipp said:

    john_zims said:

    'I think it will be harder for any party at the next election to make the kind of generalised statements that the Tories did last April/May'

    Your having a laugh ? At the 2010 election the Lib Dems key policy was to abolish tuition fees and once in government tripled them !

    It was the Tories who tripled them, which was something they always wanted to do. Labour would have done exactly the same. The Lib Dems were stuck. End of story.

    The Tories got away with it because they had been in a Coalition Government, and far too many people thought that they were reformed characters. The electorate know better now.
    Is that why they're polling has crashed since the election and the LDs polls are so high..oh wait....
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    notme said:

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
    It could happen but it would be a surprise. Would Corbyn survive it
    If we lose our majority in Wales and Zac wins in London as well, then things would look shaky.
    I have fully accepted the logic as to why Labour will probably come third in scotland next year.

    It's simply FPTP has made the SNP the de-facto party of the left, leftwing voters are not so dissapointed by the SNP that they will vote for Labour, so the SNP won't lose votes there.
    On the other hand since Labour doesn't have any but 1 seat in scotland, they will lose all those tactical anti-SNP votes, that they borrowed from the right, to the Conservatives.

    In wales Labour is still the principal party of the left and that has been reinforced with Corbyn, so it's PC that will lose votes to Labour, so Labour will do better in terms of votes. However UKIP will enter the welsh assembly, thus depriving probably Labour from a majority.

    It will all come down to London, and how identity politics is played due to Khan's religion and nationality.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
    It could happen but it would be a surprise. Would Corbyn survive it
    If we lose our majority in Wales and Zac wins in London as well, then things would look shaky.
    Shaky? It would be freefall. Scotland could be explained away, but failure in Wales and London?

    Tories would be irritated to lose London Mayor, but loss will be factored in. We had a good run with Boris, the stakes are far higher for Labour. There is an expectation of success. If Corbyn, cant win London, where can he win?
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Mr fenster what a thoroughly decent man you are.

    You raise excellent points about priorities, unfortunately your family's plight has been pushed down the list because they aren't headline grabbing and you aren't all wailing on television.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    edited October 2015
    Completely off topic and not entirely appropriate in light of the earlier post but can I just give a quick word of congratulation to the planners and traffic department of Edinburgh City Council who this evening achieved one of their long term aims of bringing complete gridlock to Edinburgh city centre for nearly 1.5 hours. This remarkable achievement has been long in the planning involving a complex and sophisticated plan of road closures, restrictions on left and right turns, temporary traffic lights and pure unrestrained malice.


    The publicly paid officials responsible for this utter chaos hide behind a cloak of anonymity due to a deep sense of self preservation and of course rank cowardice but this should not stop us from giving due recognition to their remarkable achievements. No doubt they look forward to the day when everyone recognises that trying to run a business in Edinburgh or coming to the town for work is simply impossible so the unemployed remaining burghers can walk the streets in peace. Tonight was a notable step towards that objective.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632
    "COUNTY Durham residents will be given the chance to vote on whether they want an elected mayor for the North-East, it was announced today "

    http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/13902134.Durham_to_hold_devolution_vote/

    I'll be voting NO.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Mr DL, you should try Dover when operation stack is on, it's been going on for 20 years.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Speedy said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
    It could happen but it would be a surprise. Would Corbyn survive it
    If we lose our majority in Wales and Zac wins in London as well, then things would look shaky.
    It will all come down to London, and how identity politics is played due to Khan's religion and nationality.
    I would hope his dreadful policies and dispicable character would also come into play.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,213

    Fenster said:

    I was in the Royal Gwent hospital yesterday. My Nan, sadly, got rushed in and died this morning. She was 84 and and had been ill a while. Sad loss, she was a lovely woman.

    My Dad, her son, has been in a care home since March with Alzheimers.

    It was chaos in the hospital. Dreadful scenes. Patients suffering in corridors, nursing literally sprinting about, concerned looking patients and relatives everywhere. Doctors and nurses having an strategy-meeting in the corridor.

    It's less bad where my Dad is, as it's a private home, but even there, the nurses are overwhelmed and have a two-year waiting list for patients.

    Whatever side of the political divide you're on, it's obvious we have big problems with people getting older. Osborne's problems with cutting £4bn of welfare money demonstrates how bloody hard it is to be a politician. I think Osborne is wrong to cut money from lower earners, but where else does he cut it? Because anyone who walks into an A&E dept or a care home will see that cuts can't fall there; those places need huge long-term investment.

    And investment with what? It's hard to invest when we're still £90bn in deficit. Heavily taxing the rich obviously doesn't work, logic will tell you if it did work every govt in the world would be doing it.

    The country is teetering on a cliff-edge of problems. We have thousands of working twenty-somethings who need houses but can't afford them, we have an NHS which needs serious help, we have an ageing population who need care and - at present - there aren't enough people to look after them. It's scary.

    I lived a pretty charmed life and problems only started setting in with my family over the past few years as my grandparents got older (my Dad's illness was freakish). Drawing back the curtain on the world of old age, dementia and crippled old people who survive purely on NHS pills and medicines revealed a world I'd never been aware of before. It sounds dramatic but it does change your outlook.

    I voted Tory at the last GE, but even I'm starting to realise that middle-earners like me will need to start paying more a lot more taxes. I can't see how we are going to afford it all.

    I hope you guys here all live long and charmed lives, but if you do, you may well end up either in a care home or dying in an A&E cubicle like my Nan did this morning. I know there's no nice way to go, but I like to think we can follow the good work the hospice people are doing and make the journey towards death as dignified as possible for as many as possible.

    Many condolences.

    You raise some important issues in a very poignant post.
    Indeed. Very poignant and full of good sense.

    My condolences on your loss, Mr Fenster.

  • Options

    From the perspective of the media war the Govt has put forward third rate communicators, such as John Hayes last week and Matthew Hancock this week. Also its analysis of the impacts clearly overlooked the need to pull together enough examples of how people could reduce or eliminate the impact. A classic example being the self employed QT lady who apparently does not lose anything. Awful presentation, a clear lack of sensitivity analysis in the data forecasts and failing to present an optimistic picture of how strivers could work themselves into a better outcome.

    Those being put up at present probably have the status of cannon fodder. When the generals turn up you'll know things are getting more serious. In the meantime, the arguments in favour of reducing/ eliminating WTC won't go away.
    But the war is being lost and sending in the genrals after the troops are gone will not save the policy. Also it is quite clear that the divide between Osborne and some of the back benchers is widening again.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

    Adding a penny on income tax raises £4 billion. If we added 5p (and assumed no behavioural change as a consequence), that would make £20 billion a year, adding 5p on the higher rate would raise £5 billion (assuming no behavioural changes, which is a big assumption). Thats a third of the deficit..

    The problem isnt we dont tax enough, its that we spend too much. Tax revenue over the last fifteen years has oscillated between 35% and 38% of GDP. There has been a few one offs when it has peaked. Income tax now raises more or less the same percent of gdp as it did ten years ago, fifteen years ago, twenty years ago.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    "COUNTY Durham residents will be given the chance to vote on whether they want an elected mayor for the North-East, it was announced today "

    http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/13902134.Durham_to_hold_devolution_vote/

    I'll be voting NO.

    Why? Isnt the elected mayor part of the total devolution settlement?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,963
    edited October 2015

    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

    No the problem is that politicians have for too long pretended that the healthcare system we have in this country is fit for purpose - and is the only one that could be fit for purpose - and that everything will be fine if we just spend more money.

    It is a myth.

    The UK healthcare system is not fit for purpose, is noticeably worse than many of our European counterparts and will not be able to perform effectively no matter how much money you spend on it.

    Until we rid ourselves of the idea that the NHS should be regarded as some sort of national religion and that any word said against it is tantamount to heresy, we will never be able to have meaningful reform to make it fit for purpose.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Gordon Brown's Golden rule was borrow to increase non productive current expenditure, or am I mis-remembering it ?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Speedy said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
    It could happen but it would be a surprise. Would Corbyn survive it
    If we lose our majority in Wales and Zac wins in London as well, then things would look shaky.
    I have fully accepted the logic as to why Labour will probably come third in scotland next year.

    It's simply FPTP has made the SNP the de-facto party of the left, leftwing voters are not so dissapointed by the SNP that they will vote for Labour, so the SNP won't lose votes there.
    On the other hand since Labour doesn't have any but 1 seat in scotland, they will lose all those tactical anti-SNP votes, that they borrowed from the right, to the Conservatives.

    In wales Labour is still the principal party of the left and that has been reinforced with Corbyn, so it's PC that will lose votes to Labour, so Labour will do better in terms of votes. However UKIP will enter the welsh assembly, thus depriving probably Labour from a majority.

    It will all come down to London, and how identity politics is played due to Khan's religion and nationality.
    Yes I fear Labour will go heavy on his religion and parents nationality... filthy identity politics
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited October 2015
    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
    It could happen but it would be a surprise. Would Corbyn survive it
    If we lose our majority in Wales and Zac wins in London as well, then things would look shaky.
    I have fully accepted the logic as to why Labour will probably come third in scotland next year.

    It's simply FPTP has made the SNP the de-facto party of the left, leftwing voters are not so dissapointed by the SNP that they will vote for Labour, so the SNP won't lose votes there.
    On the other hand since Labour doesn't have any but 1 seat in scotland, they will lose all those tactical anti-SNP votes, that they borrowed from the right, to the Conservatives.

    In wales Labour is still the principal party of the left and that has been reinforced with Corbyn, so it's PC that will lose votes to Labour, so Labour will do better in terms of votes. However UKIP will enter the welsh assembly, thus depriving probably Labour from a majority.

    It will all come down to London, and how identity politics is played due to Khan's religion and nationality.
    Yes I fear Labour will go heavy on his religion and parents nationality... filthy identity politics

    He's going to miss the 4.7 million votes cast from a bedsit above a pizza shop in Shoreditch now that the voter registration is tightened up. It will take a couple of elections before it is worked out how to cheat it.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    notme said:

    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

    Adding a penny on income tax raises £4 billion. If we added 5p (and assumed no behavioural change as a consequence), that would make £20 billion a year, adding 5p on the higher rate would raise £5 billion (assuming no behavioural changes, which is a big assumption). Thats a third of the deficit..

    The problem isnt we dont tax enough, its that we spend too much. Tax revenue over the last fifteen years has oscillated between 35% and 38% of GDP. There has been a few one offs when it has peaked. Income tax now raises more or less the same percent of gdp as it did ten years ago, fifteen years ago, twenty years ago.
    We can close a deficit (and we need to do so with the economy at this phase of the cycle) by either taxing more or spending less, or both. I think that it needs to be both. A penny on the basic rate to pay for the delay in Tax credit cuts would focus the debate very differently to PMQs today, and we do need to debate both options.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Fenster said:

    I was in the Royal Gwent hospital yesterday. My Nan, sadly, got rushed in and died this morning. She was 84 and and had been ill a while. Sad loss, she was a lovely woman.

    ........

    And investment with what? It's hard to invest when we're still £90bn in deficit. Heavily taxing the rich obviously doesn't work, logic will tell you if it did work every govt in the world would be doing it.

    The country is teetering on a cliff-edge of problems. We have thousands of working twenty-somethings who need houses but can't afford them, we have an NHS which needs serious help, we have an ageing population who need care and - at present - there aren't enough people to look after them. It's scary.

    I lived a pretty charmed life and problems only started setting in with my family over the past few years as my grandparents got older (my Dad's illness was freakish). Drawing back the curtain on the world of old age, dementia and crippled old people who survive purely on NHS pills and medicines revealed a world I'd never been aware of before. It sounds dramatic but it does change your outlook.

    I voted Tory at the last GE, but even I'm starting to realise that middle-earners like me will need to start paying more a lot more taxes. I can't see how we are going to afford it all.

    I hope you guys here all live long and charmed lives, but if you do, you may well end up either in a care home or dying in an A&E cubicle like my Nan did this morning. I know there's no nice way to go, but I like to think we can follow the good work the hospice people are doing and make the journey towards death as dignified as possible for as many as possible.

    My condolences to you. I'm sure I won't be the first nor the last to be moved by your post. The nation does face huge problems across a broad front and the pity is that so many approach politics on a "what can it do for me basis". I declare up front that I'm retired and comfortably off, and probably relatively fireproof whatever the government. I comment from that basis although I can honestly say that my politics have not changed since the times when we really struggled.

    We had no sense of entitlement and naturally accepted that the lion's share of the responsibility for our circumstances rested with us and that we had a responsibility to do our bit for those less able to care for themselves, but not to indulge them. We did not start our family until we could afford to care for them. When we did it was a push and we had to watch the pennies. My political motivation now concerns the kind of world our children and grandchildren will have to live in. I don't doubt that it will be a tougher world than we live in now and we oldies have no business making it any tougher than it needs to be.
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

    No the problem is that politicians have for too long pretended that the healthcare system we have in this country is fit for purpose - and is the only one that could be fit for purpose - and that everything will be fine if we just spend more money.

    It is a myth.

    The UK healthcare system is not fit for purpose, is noticeably worse than many of our European counterparts and will not be able to perform effectively no matter how much money you spend on it.

    Until we rid ourselves of the idea that the NHS should be regarded as some sort of national religion and that any word said against it is tantamount to heresy, we will never be able to have meaningful reform to make it fit for purpose.
    Well said except that the evidence points to the NHS being a fairly good service at a low cost and international experts agree.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    A penny on the basic rate to pay for the delay in Tax credit cuts would focus the debate very differently to PMQs today, and we do need to debate both options.

    Why should I pay for other people's kids !
  • Options
    Freggles said:

    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

    No the problem is that politicians have for too long pretended that the healthcare system we have in this country is fit for purpose - and is the only one that could be fit for purpose - and that everything will be fine if we just spend more money.

    It is a myth.

    The UK healthcare system is not fit for purpose, is noticeably worse than many of our European counterparts and will not be able to perform effectively no matter how much money you spend on it.

    Until we rid ourselves of the idea that the NHS should be regarded as some sort of national religion and that any word said against it is tantamount to heresy, we will never be able to have meaningful reform to make it fit for purpose.
    Well said except that the evidence points to the NHS being a fairly good service at a low cost and international experts agree.
    Actually the international expert report that everyone likes to quote said the NHS was good at many things but that it was second to bottom in the one crucial measure of clinical outcomes. So we are great at making sure we track drug usage and keep patients informed but are bad at actually making them better or keeping them alive.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    From the perspective of the media war the Govt has put forward third rate communicators, such as John Hayes last week and Matthew Hancock this week. Also its analysis of the impacts clearly overlooked the need to pull together enough examples of how people could reduce or eliminate the impact. A classic example being the self employed QT lady who apparently does not lose anything. Awful presentation, a clear lack of sensitivity analysis in the data forecasts and failing to present an optimistic picture of how strivers could work themselves into a better outcome.

    Those being put up at present probably have the status of cannon fodder. When the generals turn up you'll know things are getting more serious. In the meantime, the arguments in favour of reducing/ eliminating WTC won't go away.
    But the war is being lost and sending in the genrals after the troops are gone will not save the policy. Also it is quite clear that the divide between Osborne and some of the back benchers is widening again.
    There may be battles being lost but the war goes on.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

    Adding a penny on income tax raises £4 billion. If we added 5p (and assumed no behavioural change as a consequence), that would make £20 billion a year, adding 5p on the higher rate would raise £5 billion (assuming no behavioural changes, which is a big assumption). Thats a third of the deficit..

    The problem isnt we dont tax enough, its that we spend too much. Tax revenue over the last fifteen years has oscillated between 35% and 38% of GDP. There has been a few one offs when it has peaked. Income tax now raises more or less the same percent of gdp as it did ten years ago, fifteen years ago, twenty years ago.
    We can close a deficit (and we need to do so with the economy at this phase of the cycle) by either taxing more or spending less, or both. I think that it needs to be both. A penny on the basic rate to pay for the delay in Tax credit cuts would focus the debate very differently to PMQs today, and we do need to debate both options.
    In the last parliament almost all the deficit closing came from shifting tax burden onto higher earners while reducing it for low earners. Resulted in massive increases in employment (a jobs miracle), but very little tax. Taxing isnt a bottomless pit, it has other consequences further down the line. It's like a company concerned it isnt making sufficient profit and decides the solution is to increase the price of its product.

    The change is not consequence free. The art of taxing is to take as much as you can while minimising the impact.

    Of course, spending reductions are not consequence free either...
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Freggles said:

    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

    No the problem is that politicians have for too long pretended that the healthcare system we have in this country is fit for purpose - and is the only one that could be fit for purpose - and that everything will be fine if we just spend more money.

    It is a myth.

    The UK healthcare system is not fit for purpose, is noticeably worse than many of our European counterparts and will not be able to perform effectively no matter how much money you spend on it.

    Until we rid ourselves of the idea that the NHS should be regarded as some sort of national religion and that any word said against it is tantamount to heresy, we will never be able to have meaningful reform to make it fit for purpose.
    Well said except that the evidence points to the NHS being a fairly good service at a low cost and international experts agree.
    Name three.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Pulpstar said:

    Gordon Brown's Golden rule was borrow to increase non productive current expenditure, or am I mis-remembering it ?

    I think you misremember. It was his Prudent Rule.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    notme said:

    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
    It could happen but it would be a surprise. Would Corbyn survive it
    If we lose our majority in Wales and Zac wins in London as well, then things would look shaky.
    I have fully accepted the logic as to why Labour will probably come third in scotland next year.

    It's simply FPTP has made the SNP the de-facto party of the left, leftwing voters are not so dissapointed by the SNP that they will vote for Labour, so the SNP won't lose votes there.
    On the other hand since Labour doesn't have any but 1 seat in scotland, they will lose all those tactical anti-SNP votes, that they borrowed from the right, to the Conservatives.

    In wales Labour is still the principal party of the left and that has been reinforced with Corbyn, so it's PC that will lose votes to Labour, so Labour will do better in terms of votes. However UKIP will enter the welsh assembly, thus depriving probably Labour from a majority.

    It will all come down to London, and how identity politics is played due to Khan's religion and nationality.
    Yes I fear Labour will go heavy on his religion and parents nationality... filthy identity politics

    He's going to miss the 4.7 million votes cast from a bedsit above a pizza shop in Shoreditch now that the voter registration is tightened up. It will take a couple of elections before it is worked out how to cheat it.
    I think the "politicians" in that part of London might suss it quicker than that.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited October 2015

    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

    No the problem is that politicians have for too long pretended that the healthcare system we have in this country is fit for purpose - and is the only one that could be fit for purpose - and that everything will be fine if we just spend more money.

    It is a myth.

    The UK healthcare system is not fit for purpose, is noticeably worse than many of our European counterparts and will not be able to perform effectively no matter how much money you spend on it.

    Until we rid ourselves of the idea that the NHS should be regarded as some sort of national religion and that any word said against it is tantamount to heresy, we will never be able to have meaningful reform to make it fit for purpose.
    Private companies in the NHS just want to pick off the high volume low risk procedures like hip replacements. They are not interested in chronic diseases, dementia, maternity or emergency services. On the rare occasions that they do we see problems like the care home scandals or problems like SERCOs disastrous attempt to run out of hours in Cornwall.

    http://m.westbriton.co.uk/GPs-Cornwall-s-hours-service/story-26610802-detail/story.html

    The problem is that most expensive health care costs relate to chronic diseases of the elderly, and poor. This is a state that any of us can arrive at, or our families can arrive at. There are other ways of arranging healthcare other than the NHS but they are very rarely cheap or simple. Nearly every country in the developed world struggles with the same issues. The salami can be sliced differently but it is the same salami. Like the tax credits situation the losers are more vocal than the winners.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    notme said:

    @Fenster

    You have my sympathies over your loss. It is never easy to lose a loved one, even when it is a merciful release.

    I think that you are right. Politicians have too long pretended that we can have first class public services, but always imply that the taxes will fall on others. The honest thing to balance the budgeet would be 5p or so on the lower rate of tax and the same on thd higher rate, but they want to pretend that we can live on the never-never.

    Adding a penny on income tax raises £4 billion. If we added 5p (and assumed no behavioural change as a consequence), that would make £20 billion a year, adding 5p on the higher rate would raise £5 billion (assuming no behavioural changes, which is a big assumption). Thats a third of the deficit..

    The problem isnt we dont tax enough, its that we spend too much. Tax revenue over the last fifteen years has oscillated between 35% and 38% of GDP. There has been a few one offs when it has peaked. Income tax now raises more or less the same percent of gdp as it did ten years ago, fifteen years ago, twenty years ago.
    We can close a deficit (and we need to do so with the economy at this phase of the cycle) by either taxing more or spending less, or both. I think that it needs to be both. A penny on the basic rate to pay for the delay in Tax credit cuts would focus the debate very differently to PMQs today, and we do need to debate both options.
    I agree, in spades.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited October 2015
    29 officers investigating Madeleine McCann. I appreciate it's heartbreaking that a little girl is missing - but 29 officers - what on earth were they all doing.

    Add in Assange's minders...

    The police are being hit very hard by the cuts but perhaps it will focus a bit of mind shifting onto worthwhile/non infinite resource sucking activities
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Pulpstar said:

    A penny on the basic rate to pay for the delay in Tax credit cuts would focus the debate very differently to PMQs today, and we do need to debate both options.

    Why should I pay for other people's kids !
    One day they might pay your pension.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    Pulpstar said:

    29 officers investigating Madeleine McCann. I appreciate it's heartbreaking that a little girl is missing - but 29 officers - what on earth were they all doing.

    Add in Assange's minders...

    The police are being hit very hard by the cuts but perhaps it will focus a bit of mind shifting onto worthwhile/non infinite resource sucking activities

    I believe they ingathered over 40,000 documents. I am sure that will help solve a crime or at the very least pad the report to make it look like things are being done. Modern policing: don't you love it?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Pulpstar said:

    A penny on the basic rate to pay for the delay in Tax credit cuts would focus the debate very differently to PMQs today, and we do need to debate both options.

    Why should I pay for other people's kids !
    One day they might pay your pension.
    I expect to have to pay my own pension.
    And it's right that I should and will.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Pulpstar said:

    29 officers investigating Madeleine McCann. I appreciate it's heartbreaking that a little girl is missing - but 29 officers - what on earth were they all doing.

    Add in Assange's minders...

    The police are being hit very hard by the cuts but perhaps it will focus a bit of mind shifting onto worthwhile/non infinite resource sucking activities

    Find out why she was left alone?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    A better use of police time would be to inquire where United's goals have all gone. It's a real mystery.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Pulpstar said:

    A penny on the basic rate to pay for the delay in Tax credit cuts would focus the debate very differently to PMQs today, and we do need to debate both options.

    Why should I pay for other people's kids !
    One day they might pay your pension.
    Doubt pensions will be as generous when I retire as they are now tbh. The triple lock surely can't last another 34 years !
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories are accumulating baggage no they no longer have their coalition buddies to take all the blame.

    Whatever - but they will win again in 2020 with labour nowhere in Scotland or England
    I cant see how Labour can pull back those Scottish constituencies. Many have made a once in a generation change, and they seem to be quite happy with that. If their new MPs are able to present themselves as hard working and standing up for Scotland and people like them, why would they go back?
    The big question in Scotland is will the Tories take second spot in Holyrood May 2016 elections
    Such an event would trigger some sensational infighting within Labour. Is it even a possibility? If they did as badly as they did in the General Election they would still be ten percentage points ahead of tories.
    It could happen but it would be a surprise. Would Corbyn survive it
    If we lose our majority in Wales and Zac wins in London as well, then things would look shaky.
    I have fully accepted the logic as to why Labour will probably come third in scotland next year.

    It's simply FPTP has made the SNP the de-facto party of the left, leftwing voters are not so dissapointed by the SNP that they will vote for Labour, so the SNP won't lose votes there.
    On the other hand since Labour doesn't have any but 1 seat in scotland, they will lose all those tactical anti-SNP votes, that they borrowed from the right, to the Conservatives.

    In wales Labour is still the principal party of the left and that has been reinforced with Corbyn, so it's PC that will lose votes to Labour, so Labour will do better in terms of votes. However UKIP will enter the welsh assembly, thus depriving probably Labour from a majority.

    It will all come down to London, and how identity politics is played due to Khan's religion and nationality.
    Yes I fear Labour will go heavy on his religion and parents nationality... filthy identity politics
    Whereas PB Tories obsessing about his religion isn't?
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