politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn had Cameron struggling on tax credits at PMQs – but then changed the subject
Overall Corbyn is doing a better job at PMQs than many of his detractors predicted. Because it is so difficult for oppositions to make the political weather this weekly event is a very valuable peg to get media coverage and mustn’t be wasted.
It's harder for Jeremy Corbyn than for most Opposition leaders because his own party don't make any noise for him to guide him when he's doing well. They made more noise for Anna Turley when she spoke about the steel crisis.
So he's having to make decisions about how to follow up in the dark as to how he is doing.
Some anti-nuclear idiot on DP saying that renewables are the way to go, as the wind always blows in the UK, and the sun always shines above the clouds.
The problem with the opposition's approach is that it is based on the assumption that it is self-evident that the government ought to disagree with its own policy. So the gist is:
O/T Andy Verity is a muppet, once R5 personal finance talking mouth he's now 'economics'....
I love this piece on the decent borrowing figures - cod journalist style that he uses on the radio posing a question to say 'wrong' and somehow making this seem bad news..
"September's public sector finances look encouraging at first sight".
The problem with the opposition's approach is that it is based on the assumption that it is self-evident that the government ought to disagree with its own policy. So the gist is:
Labour is claiming there is more poverty and therefore Tax Credits are needed..They have been around for some time now and don't seem to be working...so lets keep them..duh
O/T Andy Verity is a muppet, once R5 personal finance talking mouth he's now 'economics'....
I love this piece on the decent borrowing figures - cod journalist style that he uses on the radio posing a question to say 'wrong' and somehow making this seem bad news..
"September's public sector finances look encouraging at first sight".
I believe this is Labour policy to 'grow the economy' not cut spending... we're all reds now.
It is the same BBC worldview that they had on unemployment figures.
They are down, but trend wont continue. (It did) They are down, but it is all part-time jobs. (Shown not to be true) They are down, but they are all poorly paid. (Again shown not to be be true) Figure must be must...must be...please their must be something bad about what is happening...
The problem with the opposition's approach is that it is based on the assumption that it is self-evident that the government ought to disagree with its own policy. So the gist is:
'You're cutting tax credits'
'Yes we are'
'But, you're cutting tax credits!'
'Yes we are. That's the idea.'
That really doesn't get Labour anywhere.
Rerun of the GE tactics...BUT BUT you are going to make big cuts. Errhh yes....BUT BUT thats terrible....Errhh we don't want to, but massive deficit and we are only rolling the state back to size it was 10 years ago, plus polling shows the public are generally supportive.
Jeremy Corbyn has sensationally appointed Seumas Milne as his new Director of Strategic Communications. Winchester College and Oxford-educated PPEist Milne, a former Stalinist, is renowned for his roll call of remarkable controversial quotes.
So a real communist joins Corbyn's gang. Quell surprise!.
I can't stand Andy Verity - he's all self-righteous opinon and few facts. He's like Sam Delany post Heat magazine. Why the latter comments on Sky reviews is beyond me. I just hear his gobby overtalking manner and switch off.
O/T Andy Verity is a muppet, once R5 personal finance talking mouth he's now 'economics'....
I love this piece on the decent borrowing figures - cod journalist style that he uses on the radio posing a question to say 'wrong' and somehow making this seem bad news..
"September's public sector finances look encouraging at first sight".
I believe this is Labour policy to 'grow the economy' not cut spending... we're all reds now.
It is the same BBC worldview that they had on unemployment figures.
They are down, but trend wont continue. (It did) They are down, but it is all part-time jobs. (Shown not to be true) They are down, but they are all poorly paid. (Again shown not to be be true) Figure must be must...must be...please their must be something bad about what is happening...
I think regarding Fantasy the issue a lot of authors have is as follows:
1) As they are making up a world, they want to make detailed notes of what all the countries and places there are like 2) They then want to visit all these places 3) This means lots of dull on the road sequences going from A to B 4) When they get to each place they meet some locals who may then get their own subplots
All this leads to serious bloat
Regarding Game of Thrones, I think most of the books could easily be cut by a third. The TV does a much better job of this particularly with cutting boring A to B sequences.
If I was writing fantasy, I would do it the other way round. First start with the plot and the main subplots. Then invent some extra detail to give it some colour. Draw the map last (I would also recommend making places closer together).
The BBC are reporting that migrant arrivals in Greece are now up to 7,000 a day, the highest number so far. Once you consider the other routes via Italy/Spain, Germany could well have five million migrants before this crisis is over.
I think its quite clear that OGH wants these tax credit changes reversing and wants it to be a big deal. So today Cameron was struggling and a few days ago Tim Montgomerie writing against Cameron was serious pressure (rather than routine).
I missed PMQ's but from the reading here it doesn't sound like Cameron struggled is universal opinion.
''A sneaky part of me wishes to see some misery heaped upon low paid workers in the next few years.''
Call me cynical but I don't think labour's attacks are borne of concern for 'the poor'. Not from the party that brought you the 10p tax.
Labour knows what Osborne is doing. Taking away now to give back when the budget is balanced. With a majority and a surplus the tories will be able slash all kinds of taxes that affect the low paid, but would never be countenanced in North London.
I think regarding Fantasy the issue a lot of authors have is as follows:
1) As they are making up a world, they want to make detailed notes of what all the countries and places there are like 2) They then want to visit all these places 3) This means lots of dull on the road sequences going from A to B 4) When they get to each place they meet some locals who may then get their own subplots
All this leads to serious bloat
Regarding Game of Thrones, I think most of the books could easily be cut by a third. The TV does a much better job of this particularly with cutting boring A to B sequences.
If I was writing fantasy, I would do it the other way round. First start with the plot and the main subplots. Then invent some extra detail to give it some colour. Draw the map last (I would also recommend making places closer together).
I'd suggest people save visiting other places in the world for separate books - have the core events of the book take place in a relatively short time, in a concentrated area (even if that's a large area, eg one nation, principally), and perhaps you can leave out the 'travelling places' thing (which my effort certainly suffers from, as I was trying to be spiritually akin to the Wheel of Time) to inbetween books, while still getting to explore the new major location and characters. Otherwise as you say you need either to do the equivalent of a montage, or come up with things happening along the way to justify why it is happening (besides merely fleshing out the world). Videogames do something similar sometimes, like Elder Scrolls or Dragon Age, in the same world but focusing on different areas in new installments.
I feel Scott Lynch managed this pretty well certainly in the first two Gentleman Bastard books (not read third yet). More so the first than the second, but the story and characters were centrepiece, and the cities themselves essentially characters in their own rights, and the larger world was fleshed out in small amounts, without the need for lengthy travelogues.
''So today Cameron was struggling and a few days ago Tim Montgomerie writing against Cameron was serious pressure (rather than routine).''
If I was David Cameron I would be very concerned if Tim Montgomerie agreed with anythng I did. If it was Montgomerie and Warsi agreeing with me I would know I had got it wrong.
A lot of SNP questions at PMQs today - maybe just the freak of the draw. I agree with OGH that Cameron was briefly on the ropes. A few more years of this and he will go early IMHO.
I think regarding Fantasy the issue a lot of authors have is as follows:
1) As they are making up a world, they want to make detailed notes of what all the countries and places there are like 2) They then want to visit all these places 3) This means lots of dull on the road sequences going from A to B 4) When they get to each place they meet some locals who may then get their own subplots
All this leads to serious bloat
Regarding Game of Thrones, I think most of the books could easily be cut by a third. The TV does a much better job of this particularly with cutting boring A to B sequences.
If I was writing fantasy, I would do it the other way round. First start with the plot and the main subplots. Then invent some extra detail to give it some colour. Draw the map last (I would also recommend making places closer together).
I'd suggest people save visiting other places in the world for separate books - have the core events of the book take place in a relatively short time, in a concentrated area (even if that's a large area, eg one nation, principally), and perhaps you can leave out the 'travelling places' thing (which my effort certainly suffers from, as I was trying to be spiritually akin to the Wheel of Time) to inbetween books, while still getting to explore the new major location and characters. Otherwise as you say you need either to do the equivalent of a montage, or come up with things happening along the way to justify why it is happening (besides merely fleshing out the world). Videogames do something similar sometimes, like Elder Scrolls or Dragon Age, in the same world but focusing on different areas in new installments.
I feel Scott Lynch managed this pretty well certainly in the first two Gentleman Bastard books (not read third yet). More so the first than the second, but the story and characters were centrepiece, and the cities themselves essentially characters in their own rights, and the larger world was fleshed out in small amounts, without the need for lengthy travelogues.
David Eddings was the first fantasy author I read and he did this quite well with the West and East.
The Belgariad took part in the western section of the world (still a relatively spread out section with multiple nations) while alluding to other parts of the world. The Malloreon then took place largely in the area undiscovered in the first series. This was repeated in The Elenium taking part in the West and The Tamuli expanding to the East.
Solar PVs still generate even in cloudy weather . Obviously not at night, though
The point is they generate just a fraction of their rated power in cloudy weather - 10-20% IIRC.
ISTR one solar plant did generate power at night - a Spanish plant was cheating: they had some diesel generators on site, and were using these cheaper sources to generate extra power that could be sold as more expensive renewable energy. They got caught out when they started doing it at night ...
(As opposed to the Andasol solar plant, which can generate power at night)
Solar PVs still generate even in cloudy weather . Obviously not at night, though
The point is they generate just a fraction of their rated power in cloudy weather - 10-20% IIRC.
ISTR one solar plant did generate power at night - a Spanish plant was cheating: they had some diesel generators on site, and were using these cheaper sources to generate extra power that could be sold as more expensive renewable energy. They got caught out when they started doing it at night ...
(As opposed to the Andasol solar plant, which can generate power at night)
I'll be able to have exact figures for you on generation soon enough
RIP Michael Meacher. Although very much a man of the left, meacher was particularly thoughtful and well read up on money creation, particularly during Steve Baker's money creation debate last year. And not to mention a lost Corbyn ally for the leadership.
Michael Meacher, despite his hard leftie views, seemed a fairly decent and reputable man. I suspect he will be much missed on all sides of the Commons.
And whilst protocol usually dictates against quickly weighing up the by election prospects, this must be seen as an opportunity for UKIP given the sensational near-result they achieved in nearby Middleton and Heywood before the last GE - and with Corbyn in situ now.
Of course, your typical Labour voter in Oldham W will be very receptive to Corbyn's old school message, so I see no danger really of a Labour loss - but this early in the Parliament, it might cause some to feel they can protest vote for someone else.
Michael Meacher, despite his hard leftie views, seemed a fairly decent and reputable man. I suspect he will be much missed on all sides of the Commons.
And whilst protocol usually dictates against quickly weighing up the by election prospects, this must be seen as an opportunity for UKIP given the sensational near-result they achieved in nearby Middleton and Heywood before the last GE - and with Corbyn in situ now.
Of course, your typical Labour voter in Oldham W will be very receptive to Corbyn's old school message, so I see no danger really of a Labour loss - but this early in the Parliament, it might cause some to feel they can protest vote for someone else.
I think its quite clear that OGH wants these tax credit changes reversing and wants it to be a big deal. So today Cameron was struggling and a few days ago Tim Montgomerie writing against Cameron was serious pressure (rather than routine).
I missed PMQ's but from the reading here it doesn't sound like Cameron struggled is universal opinion.
I watched PMQs. Cameron was under no pressure whatsoever.
There will be some who are hurt by the changes. There were some who were hurt by the "bedroom tax", notwithstanding the Govt. making huge amounts available to ease the problem for those caught in the transition. However, I suspect that in four and a half years time, when the election comes around, many of those currently worrying will in reality be significantly better off, with lower tax, higher hourly rate and (crucially) the incentive to work more hours.
Corbyn will be facing actual voters rather than members and twitter affiliates for the first time. UKIP in second, but they're in such disarray at the moment that I can't see them sustaining a challenge. I could, however, see some possibility of a Tory gain here though. Depends whether they want to go for it, or not.
I'm quite shocked about Michael Meacher as I am sure I saw his ex-wife Mollie being interviewed on "Daily Politics" just a short while ago. I know she's an ex but a lot of people I know were deeply affected when their ex died.
Veteran Labour MP and former minister Michael Meacher has died after a short illness. The 75-year-old had been MP for Oldham West and Royton since 1970. He retained the seat with a 14,738 majority at May's general election.
''However, I suspect that in four and a half years time, when the election comes around, many of those currently worrying will in reality be significantly better off, with lower tax, higher hourly rate and (crucially) the incentive to work more hours.''
And Osborne could cut indirect taxes that really affect the low paid. Fuel duty. Beer and wine taxes. VAT.
There is a scenario where extreme Labour voter apathy and UKIP re-running their M&H campaign motivating the aggrieved working class/underclass, allows the Tories to sneak through the middle and snatch an unlikely Oldham W win, looking at the GE2015 numbers.
But I think that highly improbable. Had it not been the fear of Ed and Salmond/Sturgeon calling the shots nationally, I doubt the Tories would have got 8k+ in May - and those are not issues in the forthcoming by-election.
RIP Michael Meacher. Although very much a man of the left, meacher was particularly thoughtful and well read up on money creation, particularly during Steve Baker's money creation debate last year. And not to mention a lost Corbyn ally for the leadership.
Meacher did know a lot about money, he had plenty of it so he should. Public school educated and, of course, Oxford. Probably best known in his later years for his large property portfolio and his criticism of people who owned more than one home. Best mates back in the day with that other well known rich socialist, Benn.
On topic, can't believe Corbyn missed the chance to open with the line "This week, I begin with a question from Heidi in South Cambridgeshire..."
Open goal, didn't even attempt the shot.
But the bigger story is surely his tie which had the label facing to the front. Now that's a donkey jacket moment! His people must be cringeing!
Why is attire more important that what he was saying ?
Do you think that a man who cannot work out that his tie is on back-to-front is suitable to run this country?
Putting your dick inside a pig is OK though !
But that allegation is not true - the world has just seen with its own eyes that the LOTO and the man purportedly putting himself forward as Chief Executive of UK PLC can't even dress himself.
That point was first made by me in a post four days ago when I suggested that this was a plot to undermine the Lords.
It is a double-edged sword. If the second chamber cannot challenge the HoC , then why have it ?
If the argument is that the HoC is elected, then we should elect the second chamber too ! 108 countries cannot be wrong.
The point is that it should be a revising chamber, but should always bow to the will of the elected chamber.
As soon as it is elected then it has its own democratic legitimacy and that can lead to deadlock.
So, what's the f*cking point ?
At least, then 37% can't do whatever they want. They should have called Osborne's bluff. The Tax credit changes was not included in a Finance Bill nor was it in the manifesto.
Comments
word of the day I fear.
So he's having to make decisions about how to follow up in the dark as to how he is doing.
The commentariat, opposition MPs, lorships and assorted other high rpofile handwringers thought they could sway government policy on tax credit cuts.
No. This is not coalition. The tories won. The cuts are going ahead whether it costs the tories power or not.
Suck it up.
Come, come Morris. LOTR was a far superior book to the Silmarilion, which to my mind reads like a university theses.
'You're cutting tax credits'
'Yes we are'
'But, you're cutting tax credits!'
'Yes we are. That's the idea.'
That really doesn't get Labour anywhere.
'But, you're cutting tax credits!'
And round and round they go again...
I love this piece on the decent borrowing figures - cod journalist style that he uses on the radio posing a question to say 'wrong' and somehow making this seem bad news..
"September's public sector finances look encouraging at first sight".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34591583
I believe this is Labour policy to 'grow the economy' not cut spending... we're all reds now.
They've even resorted to
'but it'll lose you the next election, its your poll tax moment'
https://twitter.com/mirrorfootball/status/656791755065393156
https://twitter.com/swansofficial/status/656799794090921985
They are down, but trend wont continue. (It did)
They are down, but it is all part-time jobs. (Shown not to be true)
They are down, but they are all poorly paid. (Again shown not to be be true)
Figure must be must...must be...please their must be something bad about what is happening...
Jeremy Corbyn has sensationally appointed Seumas Milne as his new Director of Strategic Communications. Winchester College and Oxford-educated PPEist Milne, a former Stalinist, is renowned for his roll call of remarkable controversial quotes.
So a real communist joins Corbyn's gang. Quell surprise!.
1) As they are making up a world, they want to make detailed notes of what all the countries and places there are like
2) They then want to visit all these places
3) This means lots of dull on the road sequences going from A to B
4) When they get to each place they meet some locals who may then get their own subplots
All this leads to serious bloat
Regarding Game of Thrones, I think most of the books could easily be cut by a third. The TV does a much better job of this particularly with cutting boring A to B sequences.
If I was writing fantasy, I would do it the other way round. First start with the plot and the main subplots. Then invent some extra detail to give it some colour. Draw the map last (I would also recommend making places closer together).
Talking of fantasy...
https://twitter.com/MarkHopkins123/status/656798965803917312
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34591583
This is why that is silly.
No pain, no gains (for Labour)
But I am too nice for that and don't really want any more suffering for the least well off.
After all I am not a PB Tory
I missed PMQ's but from the reading here it doesn't sound like Cameron struggled is universal opinion.
Call me cynical but I don't think labour's attacks are borne of concern for 'the poor'. Not from the party that brought you the 10p tax.
Labour knows what Osborne is doing. Taking away now to give back when the budget is balanced. With a majority and a surplus the tories will be able slash all kinds of taxes that affect the low paid, but would never be countenanced in North London.
I feel Scott Lynch managed this pretty well certainly in the first two Gentleman Bastard books (not read third yet). More so the first than the second, but the story and characters were centrepiece, and the cities themselves essentially characters in their own rights, and the larger world was fleshed out in small amounts, without the need for lengthy travelogues.
If I was David Cameron I would be very concerned if Tim Montgomerie agreed with anythng I did. If it was Montgomerie and Warsi agreeing with me I would know I had got it wrong.
I agree with OGH that Cameron was briefly on the ropes. A few more years of this and he will go early IMHO.
The Belgariad took part in the western section of the world (still a relatively spread out section with multiple nations) while alluding to other parts of the world. The Malloreon then took place largely in the area undiscovered in the first series. This was repeated in The Elenium taking part in the West and The Tamuli expanding to the East.
Surely you mean ''assert the primacy of the democratically elected commons....''
ISTR one solar plant did generate power at night - a Spanish plant was cheating: they had some diesel generators on site, and were using these cheaper sources to generate extra power that could be sold as more expensive renewable energy. They got caught out when they started doing it at night ...
(As opposed to the Andasol solar plant, which can generate power at night)
First test of Corbyn in a by-election?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_iL8TtPOt0
Theoretically a safe Labour seat but how much of it was down to the personal vote of Meacher?
Kippers second there.
General Election 2015: Oldham West and Royton[6]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Michael Meacher 23,630 54.8 +9.3
UKIP Francis Arbour 8,892 20.6 +17.4
Conservative Kamran Ghafoor 8,187 19.0 -4.7
Liberal Democrat Garth Harkness 1,589 3.7 -15.4
Green Simeon Hart 839 1.9 +1.9
Majority 14,738 34.2
Turnout 43,137 59.6
And whilst protocol usually dictates against quickly weighing up the by election prospects, this must be seen as an opportunity for UKIP given the sensational near-result they achieved in nearby Middleton and Heywood before the last GE - and with Corbyn in situ now.
Of course, your typical Labour voter in Oldham W will be very receptive to Corbyn's old school message, so I see no danger really of a Labour loss - but this early in the Parliament, it might cause some to feel they can protest vote for someone else.
UkIP a shoo in for the w/o Labour market or some chance for the Tories here ?
Will help reduce the chances of Corbyn of being toppled
Labour hold barring a Cornobyl event.
At least at think it was Meacher.
Open goal, didn't even attempt the shot.
But the bigger story is surely his tie which had the label facing to the front. Now that's a donkey jacket moment! His people must be cringeing!
He was infamously litigious.
Granted the ties and shirts change each time, but he seems rather fond of the Mr Bean look...
Maybe he realises its hardly worth investing in a full wardrobe given his likely lifespan in the job?
There will be some who are hurt by the changes. There were some who were hurt by the "bedroom tax", notwithstanding the Govt. making huge amounts available to ease the problem for those caught in the transition. However, I suspect that in four and a half years time, when the election comes around, many of those currently worrying will in reality be significantly better off, with lower tax, higher hourly rate and (crucially) the incentive to work more hours.
One of those MPs you just thought would soldier on and on. Part of the furniture. Sad day.
Do you think that a man who cannot work out that his tie is on back-to-front is suitable to run this country?
The 75-year-old had been MP for Oldham West and Royton since 1970.
He retained the seat with a 14,738 majority at May's general election.
Will there be a quick by-election?
If the argument is that the HoC is elected, then we should elect the second chamber too ! 108 countries cannot be wrong.
And Osborne could cut indirect taxes that really affect the low paid. Fuel duty. Beer and wine taxes. VAT.
That is labour's real fear.
But I think that highly improbable. Had it not been the fear of Ed and Salmond/Sturgeon calling the shots nationally, I doubt the Tories would have got 8k+ in May - and those are not issues in the forthcoming by-election.
2010 Brown as PM 45%
1983 Foot as LOTO 44%
Michael Meacher's the one with 9 houses...
As soon as it is elected then it has its own democratic legitimacy and that can lead to deadlock.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34592381
So, we have our first by-election during a Tory majority government since the 1990s.
Happen as well he wouldn't press the button....
At least, then 37% can't do whatever they want. They should have called Osborne's bluff. The Tax credit changes was not included in a Finance Bill nor was it in the manifesto.
Yep, 7%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station
Constituency 1997 : 84,232
2015 : 72,377