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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lynton Crosby’s magic fails to save the Tories in Canada
http://www.cbc.ca/includes/federalelection/dashboard/index.html
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Absolute majority.
:-)
Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.
My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!
Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?
Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!
Apropos Syrian migrants - a Bishop who knows what he is talking about.
A surprising number of beggars here.
An interesting Australian perspective.
Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.
The Tories are about 25-30 seats below where I expected them to be, as are the NDP. Very surprised at the total wipeout in the Maritimes, particularly in New Brunswick where I have relatives.
Kudos to the Liberals: making a gain of 148 seats to a majority from the brink of extinction is a fantastic performance.
Kudos to HYFUD who got this bang-on.
Cyclefree
"http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/cameron-should-listen-to-syrian-bishops-not-the-anglican-ones/
Apropos Syrian migrants, a Bishop who knows what he is talking about. "
Munich. One of my favourite German towns. Have fun.
Rather a misleading headline in the Spectator article as the one in your post.
The Bishop is just stating the obvious that he would prefer not to lose his entire congregation to Europe but his main points are that Assad should be supported and he supports Russia's action.
He also says that Cameron's policy is the wrong one and Assad should be supported because if he is defeated there will be armageddon. All pretty obvious really from a christian point of view.
"Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?"
Because they don't have our moronic press?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015
In 2035....
Defence in the arctic, federal tax, the French and shooting wildlife are so that's what dominates their centre-right politics.
Put another way, blaming the dark arts of Lynton Crosby (or, from the other side going back a bit, Peter Mandelson and Alistair Campbell), is missing the point: they are successful because they tap into, enhance and exploit existing beliefs that the electorate already holds - unless there isn't enough to tap into or the other side holds a more powerful message.
Defence in the arctic, federal tax, the French and shooting wildlife are so that's what dominates their centre-right politics.
Trudeau clearly has the x-factor. I do wonder how much the name might have helped him given the national popularity of Senior, and nostalgia for that.
Still, it's worth remembering that Harper had been PM since Blair was still around as our PM, and that feels like a very long time ago. But it does feel like he threw a near miss away in the final 3 weeks.
The media and comments indicate above all a sense of relief that he is gone.
On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):
Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ
Quite a chunk of the northern part has not even been really explored yet. I think it would be fair to say that it has rather different issues from the UK.
Although it appears that many Lib Dem voters in 2010 and 2015 were not 'true' Lib Dems, but disillusioned Labour voters.
Given that, it'll be interesting to see what Farron can do. There might be many left-leaning voters utterly disillusioned with Corbyn's party, and the media might like a sane party to focus on as Labour lurch to insanity.
"The party platform also made a mark with voters. Liberals said the key moment of the campaign came as they announced, in late August, that they would run three deficits of up to $10-billion a year to pay for infrastructure spending. The move allowed the party to present a more ambitious agenda, but also created a clear contrast with the NDP and the Conservative Party that both vowed to balance the books. That promise hit the NDP “like a train,” said a senior Liberal organizer."
The culture wars stuff seems to have boomeranged for the Tories (though they hurt the NDP in Quebec):
'"Distractions,” as Conservatives called them, included revelations at the Duffy fraud trial, charges the government was failing Syrian refugees and a backlash outside Quebec to Mr. Harper’s comments that he would consider banning the niqab among federal public servants.
A promise to establish a tip line for reports of “barbaric cultural practices” was also widely condemned as inflammatory.'
FPT: Miss Cyclefree, do try beef sausage with garlic and red pepper (I think that was one I had, not from Germany, but I haven't been able to find it since). Delicious.
And do not mock the sausage. Few foods have such easy comedy potential.
And don't neglect the meat balls either.
"Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good."
..... Erdbeerkuchen mit Sahne with the lovely Lola just down the road in Bad Tolz.....
(A bit like Ludlow really but without the 5 Conservative Clubs)
But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.
Tick tock! They've given up!
Saying that we did not have any in Scotland then but again have plenty nowadays.
But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.
Tick tock! They've given up!
Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter.....
I know you don't like hearing it Nick, and I hate saying it, but the decisions that you and other members have taken over recent months have rendered Labour unelectable and, therefore, irrelevant. Think NDP, not Liberal.
(I thought you understood the risks of incentivising people to hide where they are making money? If banks can't charge for current accounts they will try to make money in all sorts of sneaky ways*. And that's bound to lead to trouble)
* My personal favourite is minimum account balances (interest free) because it sounds so inocuous
"The Conservatives led on newspaper endorsements:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015"
It didn't exactly give numbers but it's extraordinary the information which finds it's way onto the internet (and don't they have a huge number of papers in Canada?)
I wonder what it is about Corbyn and a centre-left Labour that NHS Privatisation zealot and arch-Blairite Lord Warner doesnt like?
I guess the Dear Leader doesn't like anyone who thinks for themselves.
Sounds like the plan is to 'wait until the old folks are all dead' then.....
I'll point out again that being 'pro-Israel' (as if being explicitly 'pro' or 'anti' any country is not moronic in itself) is not a centrist position, certainly in this country, in which the majority have an unfavourable view of the country (unsurprisingly).
Also, of course, Corbyn is merely spearheading a change in the Labour Party, and is unlikely to lead them into the next election.
" Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter....."
That made me laugh!
This sort of mindless attack is hilarious. Show me where you were criticising him for his views when he was inside the tent?
The 'arch-Blairite' tag is perhaps the most funny. It seems that having similar views to the only electable Labour leader for forty years is now a negative in Labour.
Labour are going to lose, and lose badly. But that'll be fine, because the two people left in it will be ideologically pure.
"MM, unfortunately most of them are millionaires( or very close ) so they will be living the high life. Their only skill was in benefitting themselves."
An idiotic comment on every level. Have a black coffee and wake yourself up or risk sounding ridiculous
The 'arch-Blairite' tag is perhaps the most funny. It seems that having similar views to the only electable Labour leader for forty years is now a negative in Labour.
Labour are going to lose, and lose badly. But that'll be fine, because the two people left in it will be ideologically pure.
I think many of the people who voted Corbyn were quite OK with First Term Blair (the one where he won loads of votes) and are the ones defending it's legacy. It's the Blairites who seem determined to disown that period.
Do you really think if the roles were reversed and a Tory who'd advocated nationalisation of the UK car industry and the recreation of British Leyland decided to leave the party, we wouldnt (quite rightly) get similar resounding howls of 'meh.'
Harper to stand down as Tory leader post defeat while Mulcair to stay on
BQ leader Gilles Duceppe has lost his seat
He can only ever act as a force multiplier
Do you really think if the roles were reversed and a Tory who'd advocated nationalisation of the UK car industry and the recreation of British Leyland decided to leave the party, we wouldnt (quite rightly) get similar resounding howls of 'meh.'
I'm not sure many Tories are likely to advocate those policies. Can you name a famous Conservative who has advocated them?
But in comparison, let's try to think back to when Carswell moved over to UKIP. Perhaps I'm misremembering, but most Conservatives seemed to regret his move, but not attack him in quite the same way.
Reckless got attacked much more, but that was mostly as a result of the way he defected, rather than his views.
The Labour party is the real nasty party.
Debt to GDP came down from >100% in the late 1990s to <70% in 2008 thanks to a perpetual surplus pre-2008.
This country is probably five-ten years away from the same point.
Overall majorities have only really been a serious prospect since the Bloc collapsed.
If it didn't work, the corporate interests in question wouldn't expend so much effort doing it.
Also, study after study shows that where public opinion at large diverges from reality, it closely follows the misrepresentations of the press.
Propaganda works, simple as. And in this country with have a particularly virulent form of it, built up symbiotically with the aid of the politicians that represent the same interests in Westminster. To moronically mis-spell media to suggest those using clear and obvious evidence to support their arguments are silly children just makes you look a bit facile, frankly.
And as you say, Reckless was hardly lauded.
Stop virtue signalling, you sound ridiculous.
Edited extra bit: I was right. Huzzah!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_I