politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ministers U-turn over the Saudi prison deal following an unlikely alliance of Michael Gove and Jeremy Corbyn
Gove & Corbyn unusual allies on cancelling Saudi prisons deal; MoJ objections overruled by FCO & No 10 (The Times) https://t.co/GyZ8hd5YkR
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And good. Well done Gove; a credit to him.
@Stodge
I have real reservations about the idea of this being a law rather than a policy but I disagree with your reasoning. The fact that tory governments have overspent in the past actually helps to make the case for the rule rather than the reverse.
The fact is that elected politicians of all stripes want to deliver a buoyant economy at election times and focus on that narrow window instead of the longer term good of the country. To a certain extent Osborne himself did that from 2012 onwards when he considerably slowed the rate of deficit reduction in recognition that the economy was not exactly roaring (it was in fact doing somewhat better than official statistics of the time indicated but that is another matter).
I don't think anyone serious has any problem with a countercyclical budget with deficits and additional spending when the economy is in recession. Many on the left, however, have a major problem with the quid pro quo of surpluses during boom periods. The temptation of politicians to bribe us with our own money is strong and it is never hard to find a real need for a new hospital, school, road, bridge, railway, airport, etc etc
At the moment we have debt at about 85% of GDP. This costs a lot of money in interest and reduces the ability of governments to respond positively when the need arises. I do think a policy of having surpluses in all times other than periods of below average growth makes a great deal of sense and will give the country better options. So I like the policy but really question whether it should be a matter of law.
Someone, I think it was Mr, Charles, proposed a very sensible scheme and very simple for overcoming local objections. It is called money. Just offer the local residents who object sufficient cash and they will stop objecting. The extra expenditure would not be huge, in fact in a large project it would be less than a rounding error.
I simply said 'bribe them' but your explanation is a little more elegant!
The criminal justice system in Saudi is disgusting. We do not want to be associated with it in any way let alone give it a patina of credibility. Were we going to be advising on the length of the lashes?
Yuck.
It would certainly work on me, however.
[That said, Gove has gone up further in my estimation because of this. He pushed it through in the face of pretty stiff cabinet opposition. Anyone can say "you should do this", but not everyone is in a position, or is willing to spend enough capital, to make it happen.]
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/13/gove-emerges-as-human-rights-hero-over-bid-to-scrap-saudi-prisons-deal
(I don't know why they are surprised that Gove is a champion of human rights. He always has been.)
The fact is laws can be reversed. However that would mean this (or a future) government would have to reverse the law. Which will trigger two responses, first a debate in Parliament on reversing the law, secondly if the stuff hits the fan afterwards and reversing it was a mistake then this will be a clear issue of "well you decided to do this".
Its not iron-cast but nothing ever can be. However I think it is appropriate that if the government is going to borrow in boom times with an 85% debt:GDP ratio then we should trigger a Parliamentary debate and the government should justify why they are doing it.
UKIP majority on Thanet council lasted less than 5 months, as 5 members split to form new group: http://t.co/f5pdpBjES6
Ross Hawking
Interesting turn of phrase on the Lords annunciator http://t.co/M0amuND9cY
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3269511/Britain-s-Shameless-mother-twelve-rakes-40-000-year-benefits-reveals-spent-1-300-gifts-son-s-sixth-birthday-tells-taxpayers-ve-got-opinion-stuffed.html
http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-gives-cameron-a-november-deadline-merkel-tusk-brexit-farror-euroskeptics/
The phrase "willing to entertain" makes the EU leaders sound like some sort of absolutist monarchy.
Whilst I agree with both of you that compulsory purchase prices for such schemes should be increased, it would not solve the problem in total.
For as well as the people whose properties need to be purchased, others complain:
*) Locals whose properties are not to be purchased. Their objections can be reasonable: e.g. noise foootprints (ISTR there is compensation for this in HS2, although many say the distance at which compensation is granted is too short), diverted rights of way, views, local traffic (both during construction and afterwards), etc, etc. There are also many who are genuine NIMBYs.
*) Pressure groups. For instance one of the biggest objectors to a Severn Barrage are the RSPB, despite getting their own way on many projects of their liking with merely a squeak.
As an example of the former, I heard of one farmer who objected to HS1 because his land would be split into two. The alternative route they gave him was along a busy road that he could not safely take stock down. His objection was reasonable, and an alternative was devised at some cost to the project.
Still it is better than some of the earlier TGV routes in France where, if you house was directly in line and knocked down then you got compensation but if the train ran 50 feet from you window you got nothing. There were a lot of law suits about that at the time.
Firstly: Osborne is clearing up Brown's mess and attempting to fix things so that we are in surplus by the time of the next inevitable recession. Had Brown followed Osborne's rules and we'd been in surplus in 2007 then Osborne would not be needing to fix Brown's mess.
Secondly: There are guidelines as to when a deficit should be OK. IIRC it is up to the OBR to determine with a sub 1% growth being the guideline. To have the OBR determine if a deficit is OK could end up being like having the Bank of England determining interest rates which is the only thing Brown did that he deserves credit for in my eyes and something nobody now would reverse.
Thirdly: If an emergency happens then the government of the day can go to Parliament and say we are suspending this rule because insert reasons here and have a vote in Parliament. That seems the right response.
Fourthly: We'll see if Labour reverse the law. If they do that is their right, as is every law, but that suggests we should have no laws unless everyone agrees. Again Labour would have to go to Parliament and justify it and be held accountable by voters. If a long time passes as it should were surpluses in booms is the new normal then like BoE independence diverting from this path could be harder than you imagine.
It seems to me you're upset with Osborne trying to enshrine sound finances not because you object in principle to his financial guidelines but because you don't think Labour would follow it. I don't think that's good enough a reason not to be responsible and try to hold the government of the day (and future governments) to account.
My guess it’s an anachronism from days gone by – does raise an eyebrow today however…
How to sever several heads without incurring overtime?
Its a technical issue to make any government of the day actually come to the House to reverse it but then it is not just a case of saying "I commend this budget to the house" and ignoring the rules of the past.
I think its called democracy. Worst form of government apart from all the others and all that.
@TeleComment: Here's some "straight talking" for you, John McDonnell: you. Are. A. Clown. @DPJHodges: http://t.co/ElV5SK3zb0 http://t.co/fobx12fCoY
...in Birmingham
Does abandoning it in any way make it more or less likely that saudi justice will be more humane? The contract was for training, its only a guess but I speculate its aim was to improve conditions for prisoners.
Gove has specifically said that it is important to maintain security links with saudi so in all other respects I do not see the official position of our relationship changing.
Gove is one of the conservatives' best assets, and he himself may be entitled to feel it is an asset that is somewhat undervalued, right now.
I don't agree with his assessment of Osborne which is far too harsh but I am with @Alanbrooke on this one. It is gesture politics and not quite redeemed by the hilarity that Labour's response has produced.
They have something I want (the right to build)
So I'll pay them for it.
Gove took removal and demotion from a role he loved for the team without complaint. He has now deservedly been promoted again. I think he will be the next Chancellor myself when Osborne moves up.
I suggest they do not hold the rights. An airport can be built nearby not on their land. We have planning procedures, and legitimate compensation, not bribery. Your solution is as bogus as the protests that it would elicit. And in the process the rights and wrongs of any proposal just get thrown in the bin.
You are no doubt clever sensible and astute and successful. Good luck to. But you prove you can talk as much bollocks as the next man (or Dianne Abbott!) when the occasion suits.
I've listed two potential benefits for having the bill on the books. You and Alan seem to h ave only an objection that it will be reversed without fuss. If so it is meaningless and no harm done, if you're wrong then it isn't meaningless and good is done. May be an odd analogy for me to use as an atheist but this to me seems like an economic version of Pascal's Wager, there is a potential upside but no real downside so why not do this? What is the harm?
You're also not taking into account the possibility that like Bank of England independence this could become adopted as a new responsible norm that it is very difficult and not easy to reverse.
As it happens, ISTR figures that railways are far better than motorways for noise: for a similar distance from the route, railways (even high-speed) create far less noise. The noise is also for a few seconds every few minutes rather than continuous.
I lived next to the Cambridge to London line for a while, and the biggest problem were the maintenance trains tamping the line at night. Not just the noise and vibration, but the bright lights set up by the workmen which would invariably shine onto our windows.
But I believe that people should be compensated for the loss of amenity value (in this case noise).
But even so if they protest it takes years, and time costs money. So you are asking them to waive their right to protest in return for a payment.
That's not bollocks - that's a fairly standard commercial transaction. (In my world it's a fee for an extend & pretend transaction)
I think it's because Corbyn has lots of ideas that are bloody horrendous, so when he's right about something it's a bit like a stopped clock giving the right time.
Also, Corbyn's in a position to pontificate only. Just as Kinnock didn't get the blame for the ERM disaster or the Conservatives for Iraq, governments get the credit or blame for actions taken.
Should GO not be held to his own standards? I think he should.
The man is utterly mad. There is not a single bit of coherent thinking in his approach.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/13/saudi-prisons-contract-gove-and-hammond-clash-over-deal
Having the Secretary of State for Justice oppose a justice-related issue is a different kettle of fish.
The difference is that one is in government, and the other is engaged in playing out a Dadaist piece of political installation art, and a very funny one.
So Labour voting for something makes that something ridiculous now? Sounds about right!
Just needs politicians with the balls to make a decision and live with it. The easy option of kicking the can down the road for the next lot leads us to where we are now with LHR, HS2 and power generation, to give three examples of where we need spades in the ground yesterday.
Furthermore unless GO has magically abolished boom and bust 2024 would be 16 years since the last recession. Personally I don't think he has.
I don't think boom and bust either can, should or has been abolished. Which makes it all the more important to be running a surplus by the time of the next crash. If it hasn't yet occurred by 2024 the last thing I want is a deficit in 2024 due to pre-election giveaways.
Same to @Philip_Thompson.
Second ... personally I would not bet on him being chancellor. Foreign Secretary. Home Secretary. Hammond or May chancellor. Probably Hammond. There is scope for one of current big wigs to be DPM.
Who will be Osborne's campaign manager??
Either let Labour justify why they want to be feckless or have them sign up to be responsible. I see nothing bad with this and only potential benefits for the economy.
It was a good idea nicked from Labour. Having said that, I have little confidence that Labour would have followed through with the ideas from the Armitt Review.
manana
Whether Corbyn should have been an irrelevance here is another question but frankly he has made himself one. This is the scenario where Labour have found themselves, that even when they're on the right side of the issue they're not responsible. The Tories pre-Cameron had a similar problem so no sympathy.
I don't know whether he and Gove are right on this; the Guardian leader, which seems to be quite sensible, mentions an alternative view:
But there remains one nagging doubt. There are serious liberal criminal justice commentators who have argued that engagement with the Saudis over prisons has merit. Rob Allen writes that help in “bringing about improvements in overseas prison systems [that] can reduce the risk of torture and ill treatment among detainees is a good thing in itself and part of our soft diplomacy”.
I don't know enough about the subject, and the likely Saudi response, to have a view on that, although a priori the Gove (and Corbyn) view sounds more likely to be right.
McDonnell is mad as a bicycle.
What's the blue team scared of?
If these new rules are followed from once the roof is fixed onwards then we should be better off.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/34516393
As the Times reported this morning, the incoming justice secretary had demanded back in July that the Ministry of Justice’s £5.9m commercial bid to provide a “training-needs analysis” to the Saudi prison authorities should be scrapped.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/13/gove-emerges-as-human-rights-hero-over-bid-to-scrap-saudi-prisons-deal
Worse this is simply riding the natural recovery unless he addresses structural reform there will be little to undepin hollow foundations.
Idiots from left right and centre were made to look stupid in May. They have learned nothing.
Michael Gove running scared from Jeremy Corbyn? I don't think so.
I don't think the blue team are scared of anything. When Labour are busy committing hari kari I think you're the one talking bullshit if you think the blue team are scared.