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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    Now that all the party conferences have finished the net result is not much change.
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    TGOHF said:

    Charles said:

    @Richard_Nabavi

    Your request to know precisely the relationship is a mendacious argument.

    If there is a vote to leave there will be a negotiation period, during which there will also be a democratic debate to determine what the plurality of British voters want.

    I might as well ask you to tell me exactly what the EU will look like in 20 years time. You don't know, and I don't know. We only know that it won't be the same as EU 2015. But that's what "remain" is asking us to vote for.



    If the answer is No, then I might be persuadable to vote to Leave, provided there's a reasonable prospect of defending our trade interests. I was hoping that the Leave side would address this point, and maybe they will. We shall see.

    As you can see, I've got a logical and clearly articulated position. Others may disagree with it, that's fine.
    You have a position that it is impossible for anyone to honestly answer, as you know damn well - given that we have spoken about it before. The Out side cannot possibly say what the future relationship will be. That will be a decision for HMG in negotiation with the EU.

    So bleats about "I'd like to know ..." are disingenuous and, to be frank, beneath you,
    I just want to know what the Leave side would be aiming at (and if it's plausible, of course).

    If the answer is 'Haven't a clue, guv', or 'Who cares?' then that's fine. I'll vote to stay in, as will nearly everyone else.

    What's extraordinary about those arguing against me and even accusing me of being disingenuous is that these are issues which the Leave side absolutely has to address if it is to have any hope of winning. The Remain side's strongest card is the 'leap in the dark' issue. From what the Outers here are saying, it really is a leap in the dark, and they don't care.

    Fair enough, but don't expect to win a referendum that way.
    So in summary we are expected to debate an unknown deal for in vs an unknown deal for out.

    I can't think why the nation at large isn't gripped by this topic..
    Not for me, mate. I will vote to stay on what we have got at the moment. I don't need to see the results of any renegotiation. Particularly, I do not want to see any changes to the free movement of people.

    I am with Adam Smith on this one.
    You can't have what we gave got at the moment. It is the one thing that is not on offer.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,994
    edited October 2015
    Speedy said:

    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    Now that all the party conferences have finished the net result is not much change.

    Given the coverage, Labour will be very pleased with that, I'd have thought.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Mr. Antifrank, if we vote Out, and basically stay In (the Boris Idiocy), the Conservatives will implode with fury. It would probably bring down Cameron.

    I see Watson remains a creature of slime and filth.

    I assume that Mrs Brittan can't sue for slander? Watson's comments about her husband by implication would surely cause a reasonable person to think worse of her for standing by a man alleged to have done such vile things?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    There was a Conservative MP. He presented a dossier to the then Home Secretary in the 80's..

    The dossier "disappeared".

    The present Home Secretary said so herself.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036

    Mr. Antifrank, if we vote Out, and basically stay In (the Boris Idiocy), the Conservatives will implode with fury. It would probably bring down Cameron.

    I see Watson remains a creature of slime and filth.

    I assume that Mrs Brittan can't sue for slander? Watson's comments about her husband by implication would surely cause a reasonable person to think worse of her for standing by a man alleged to have done such vile things?
    Parliamentary privilege, I would have thought.
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    Speedy said:

    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    Now that all the party conferences have finished the net result is not much change.

    Given the coverage, Labour will be very pleased with that, I'd have thought.

    I certainly am
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,052
    Mr. D, indeed. It's a very important principle, despite Watson's slimy abuse of it.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited October 2015
    SO.. It means a lot of people accept the principles of CORBYN and WATSON..a winning combo... if you have no decency left..
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Mr. Flightpath, I'm not sure that's the case.

    I think the EU is heading towards greater integration, and the eurozone bloc has a critical mass for QMV which is only to our disadvantage. The EU has also shown in recent history to renege upon deals and be heavy-handed. Given that, voting Out is a perfectly rational perspective.

    Shown up, indeed. You tinker.

    Mr. Surbiton, Miliband was neck-and-neck, lest we forget.

    Miliband did not receive the heap of abuse which has been inflicted upon Corbyn. Maybe Corbyn has handled it well.

    In one sense it is good. These accusations and distortions will be old news soon.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267

    Mr. Antifrank, if we vote Out, and basically stay In (the Boris Idiocy), the Conservatives will implode with fury. It would probably bring down Cameron.

    I see Watson remains a creature of slime and filth.

    I assume that Mrs Brittan can't sue for slander? Watson's comments about her husband by implication would surely cause a reasonable person to think worse of her for standing by a man alleged to have done such vile things?
    In theory, it is possible to defame someone even without mentioning them, if it is clear to whom you are referring. So it could be possible to defame Mrs B by saying or implying that she knew what her husband had done, approved of it, turned a blind eye, helped him or whatever. But she can't simply sue on behalf of her husband. Nor can she sue simply on the basis of the hurt and distress caused to her.

    I should stress that I have no idea whether Tom Watson has said anything of the kind.

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    Whilst I have a clear vision for what I would like to see post Brexit it is disingenuous for the Remain side to talk about needing a definite plan from Leave. Not least because it is very unlikely anyone currently involved in Leave will actually have any control over the post referendum negotiations. That will be decided by whoever is leading the Government post referendum. And since we have no idea who that will be and all the leading contenders are Europhiles it is impossible to say what their negotiating position will be.

    As an aside it is also the case that Remain do not have a consistent or coherent view of what a post referendum position should be for the UK. All we know is it won't be what we have now as the whole dynamic with the EU will have changed.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036

    Speedy said:

    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    Now that all the party conferences have finished the net result is not much change.

    Given the coverage, Labour will be very pleased with that, I'd have thought.

    I certainly am
    Keeping Corbyn nice and safe.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Mr. Dodd, also famous for having the best ever videogame version of a film. It's probably awful now, but back then it was fantastic.

    Mr. Nabavi, I take the opposite view. If I'm on the second floor of a burning building, I'd sooner leap into the dark than hope I'll be miraculously rescued. The EU is in a bad place now and heading in a direction diametrically opposed to our own interests. If In doesn't have a good argument, and it doesn't (aside from the £480m I may receive), I'll vote Out.

    Your unwillingness to engage in any sensible way with Mr Nabavi points just shows you up. The whole issue revolves around leaping into the dark.
    Only if you're stupid enough to push dumb PR lines.
    Thanks for proving my point about how stupid and ignorant rabid Outers have become already.
    Saying leap without any attempt to say where to and how and will it be just as hot is just pathetic. It also conveniently makes up a fire that we have to escape.
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    Joe Biden, what on Earth are you doing...
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    TGOHF said:

    Charles said:

    @Richard_Nabavi

    Your request to know precisely the relationship is a mendacious argument.

    If there is a vote to leave there will be a negotiation period, during which there will also be a democratic debate to determine what the plurality of British voters want.

    I might as well ask you to tell me exactly what the EU will look like in 20 years time. You don't know, and I don't know. We only know that it won't be the same as EU 2015. But that's what "remain" is asking us to vote for.



    If the answer is No, then I might be persuadable to vote to Leave, provided there's a reasonable prospect of defending our trade interests. I was hoping that the Leave side would address this point, and maybe they will. We shall see.

    As you can see, I've got a logical and clearly articulated position. Others may disagree with it, that's fine.
    You have a position that it is impossible for anyone to honestly answer, as you know damn well - given that we have spoken about it before. The Out side cannot possibly say what the future relationship will be. That will be a decision for HMG in negotiation with the EU.

    So bleats about "I'd like to know ..." are disingenuous and, to be frank, beneath you,
    I just want to know what the Leave side would be aiming at (and if it's plausible, of course).

    If the answer is 'Haven't a clue, guv', or 'Who cares?' then that's fine. I'll vote to stay in, as will nearly everyone else.

    What's extraordinary about those arguing against me and even accusing me of being disingenuous is that these are issues which the Leave side absolutely has to address if it is to have any hope of winning. The Remain side's strongest card is the 'leap in the dark' issue. From what the Outers here are saying, it really is a leap in the dark, and they don't care.

    Fair enough, but don't expect to win a referendum that way.
    So in summary we are expected to debate an unknown deal for in vs an unknown deal for out.

    I can't think why the nation at large isn't gripped by this topic..
    Not for me, mate. I will vote to stay on what we have got at the moment. I don't need to see the results of any renegotiation. Particularly, I do not want to see any changes to the free movement of people.

    I am with Adam Smith on this one.
    You can't have what we gave got at the moment. It is the one thing that is not on offer.
    Surely we could have ever closer Union.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707
    edited October 2015
    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Is 34% the joint highest score for Labour post-election ? On this spread, NOM wins.
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    Whilst I have a clear vision for what I would like to see post Brexit it is disingenuous for the Remain side to talk about needing a definite plan from Leave. Not least because it is very unlikely anyone currently involved in Leave will actually have any control over the post referendum negotiations. That will be decided by whoever is leading the Government post referendum. And since we have no idea who that will be and all the leading contenders are Europhiles it is impossible to say what their negotiating position will be.

    As an aside it is also the case that Remain do not have a consistent or coherent view of what a post referendum position should be for the UK. All we know is it won't be what we have now as the whole dynamic with the EU will have changed.

    Whilst a "definite plan" might be over-egging it, I am not sure the problem is symmetric. Staying in does feel like the devil I know, whereas Leave has some viewpoints with which I agree and some with which I do not. So it does feel to me that Leave has more to do.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Let's put it this way. I murder someone and then die. Does it make me innocent ?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @PickardJE: Jon Lansman: “When there are selections of an MP, I'd like to see MPs who reflect the values of members of the party" http://t.co/7hfpD1mis7

    Fancy that.
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Let's put it this way. I murder someone and then die. Does it make me innocent ?
    That's rarely the choice. Trials (and interviews) are useful fact-finding procedures, and where we don't have one, it will be a rare case we can say that you were a murderer.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    surbiton said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Let's put it this way. I murder someone and then die. Does it make me innocent ?
    Typically people are innocent until proven guilty. The case was dropped while he was alive.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,060
    edited October 2015
    surbiton said:





    Surely we could have ever closer Union.

    Ever closer union is the heisenberg's uncertainty principle of the EU debate. We can know the direction of travel but we can not know how far along the path we have travelled at any given point . Admittedly a poor analogy but I was do pleased with the idea when I thought of it that I decided to use it anyway.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Innocent until proven guilty in this country.

    One assumes things are different in the Motherland.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    This is getting more bizarre.

    For sure it seems to mainly have come from the Greens but the Tories do not appear to be getting a similar transfer from UKIP to maintain their lead. This now appears to be a repeated pattern since Corbyn was elected.

    In England and Wales Corbyn is actually helping Labour and I do not understand why this can happen, if I was a voter in England I would be petrified of a hard left Corbyn government especially as he will be in hock to the SNP who can keep Scottish taxes low while Corbyn rockets up everything in England and Wales.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    Now that all the party conferences have finished the net result is not much change.

    Labour will be very pleased with that, I'd have thought.

    Of course they will they are back to July levels, if you compare them though you will see there is more flux between parties :

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_july_guardian.pdf

    In July the movement between Labour and the Tories was 2-3% each way, now it's 6%, same for UKIP from 4-5% to 8-9% and the LD from 10-17% to 14-20%, in the end all movements cancel each other out although they are bigger than in the last GE.

    But the Labour disproportional gains from the Greens and the Nationalists is what makes the Labour score 34 instead of 31.

    Funny note, although the LD still remain at about the same level as in the GE, they now have an entirely different base as only 56% of 2015LD will vote for them, they replenish the half that has left the LD with all the small scrubs of 1-2-3% from all other parties.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    edited October 2015
    surbiton said:

    Is 34% the joint highest score for Labour post-election ? On this spread, NOM wins.

    Another 35% strategy? Tell us how that went last time.
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    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    Now that all the party conferences have finished the net result is not much change.

    Given the coverage, Labour will be very pleased with that, I'd have thought.

    I certainly am
    Keeping Corbyn nice and safe.

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Tonight's ICM Guardian poll with LAB just 4% behind equals the best position for party in any poll since GE2015. Good for Corbyn.


    we're all happy.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,803

    Mr. Dodd, also famous for having the best ever videogame version of a film. It's probably awful now, but back then it was fantastic.

    Mr. Nabavi, I take the opposite view. If I'm on the second floor of a burning building, I'd sooner leap into the dark than hope I'll be miraculously rescued. The EU is in a bad place now and heading in a direction diametrically opposed to our own interests. If In doesn't have a good argument, and it doesn't (aside from the £480m I may receive), I'll vote Out.

    Your unwillingness to engage in any sensible way with Mr Nabavi points just shows you up. The whole issue revolves around leaping into the dark.
    Only if you're stupid enough to push dumb PR lines.
    Thanks for proving my point about how stupid and ignorant rabid Outers have become already.
    Saying leap without any attempt to say where to and how and will it be just as hot is just pathetic. It also conveniently makes up a fire that we have to escape.
    you're now confusing yourself.

    Not difficult I accept.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    antifrank said:

    @PickardJE: Jon Lansman: “When there are selections of an MP, I'd like to see MPs who reflect the values of members of the party" http://t.co/7hfpD1mis7

    Fancy that.

    There is one line for me which is RED. I will not support any MP who will vote for bombing Syria without explicit UN Security Council authorisation.

    They deserve to be deselected. I resigned from the Labour Party in 2003 and will do so again, if necessary. We had a warmongering PM who should be in the dock in the Hague right now.
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    surbiton said:

    Is 34% the joint highest score for Labour post-election ? On this spread, NOM wins.

    Have ICM changed their methodology post-GE?

    Have to say I am surprised. I thought that Corbyn Labour would be alienating a lot more people by now.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    Dair said:

    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    This is getting more bizarre.

    For sure it seems to mainly have come from the Greens but the Tories do not appear to be getting a similar transfer from UKIP to maintain their lead. This now appears to be a repeated pattern since Corbyn was elected.

    In England and Wales Corbyn is actually helping Labour and I do not understand why this can happen, if I was a voter in England I would be petrified of a hard left Corbyn government especially as he will be in hock to the SNP who can keep Scottish taxes low while Corbyn rockets up everything in England and Wales.
    Looks like some kipper to Labour transfer. Although this is all MoE stuff.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098



    I just want to know what the Leave side would be aiming at (and if it's plausible, of course).

    If the answer is 'Haven't a clue, guv', or 'Who cares?' then that's fine. I'll vote to stay in, as will nearly everyone else.

    What's extraordinary about those arguing against me and even accusing me of being disingenuous is that these are issues which the Leave side absolutely has to address if it is to have any hope of winning. The Remain side's strongest card is the 'leap in the dark' issue. From what the Outers here are saying, it really is a leap in the dark, and they don't care. They don't even care if immigration would be the same as now.

    Fair enough, but don't expect to win a referendum that way.

    I could write you a piece saying what I would like the future to be and so could everyone who would prefer to see the UK out, but as none of us would ever be in a position to even negotiate the terms of settlement what good would that be. The Out side is in a catch 22, position and you know that because we, you and I, have discussed it before.

    Asking a question that you already know cannot be honestly answered is disingenuous.
  • Options

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    The principle of innocent until proven guilty still stands.

    Also, the police dropped the case due to a lack of evidence.

    What else do you want?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Is 34% the joint highest score for Labour post-election ? On this spread, NOM wins.

    Another 35% strategy? Tell us how that went last time.
    No. 42% strategy.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited October 2015
    @JEO

    You asked on an earlier thread for any analysis of likely free trade agreements. Iain Mansfield who is the Director of UK Trade and Investment at the UK's Embassy in the Philippines looked at likely FTAs in his winning entry for the IEA Brexit Prize. This can be found from page 17 onwards.

    http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Brexit Entry 170_final_bio_web.pdf
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707
    watford30 said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Innocent until proven guilty in this country.

    One assumes things are different in the Motherland.
    Innocent in the eyes of the law. I'm talking about whether he did it, which is an entirely different matter.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    surbiton said:

    antifrank said:

    @PickardJE: Jon Lansman: “When there are selections of an MP, I'd like to see MPs who reflect the values of members of the party" http://t.co/7hfpD1mis7

    Fancy that.

    There is one line for me which is RED. I will not support any MP who will vote for bombing Syria without explicit UN Security Council authorisation.

    They deserve to be deselected. I resigned from the Labour Party in 2003 and will do so again, if necessary. We had a warmongering PM who should be in the dock in the Hague right now.
    Cue TSE with the great bar chart showing number of years since a majority for the various flavours of Labour.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Where can you see the ICM poll VI
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    TGOHF said:

    Charles said:

    @Richard_Nabavi

    Your request to know precisely the relationship is a mendacious argument.

    If there is a vote to leave there will be a negotiation period, during which there will also be a democratic debate to determine what the plurality of British voters want.

    I might as well ask you to tell me exactly what the EU will look like in 20 years time. You don't know, and I don't know. We only know that it won't be the same as EU 2015. But that's what "remain" is asking us to vote for.



    If the answer is No, then I might be persuadable to vote to Leave, provided there's a reasonable prospect of defending our trade interests. I was hoping that the Leave side would address this point, and maybe they will. We shall see.

    As you can see, I've got a logical and clearly articulated position. Others may disagree with it, that's fine.
    You have a position that it is impossible for anyone to honestly answer, as you know damn well - given that we have spoken about it before. The Out side cannot possibly say what the future relationship will be. That will be a decision for HMG in negotiation with the EU.

    So bleats about "I'd like to know ..." are disingenuous and, to be frank, beneath you,
    I just want to know what the Leave side would be aiming at (and if it's plausible, of course).

    If the answer is 'Haven't a clue, guv', or 'Who cares?' then that's fine. I'll vote to stay in, as will nearly everyone else.

    What's extraordinary about those arguing against me and even accusing me of being disingenuous is that these are issues which the Leave side absolutely has to address if it is to have any hope of winning. The Remain side's strongest card is the 'leap in the dark' issue. From what the Outers here are saying, it really is a leap in the dark, and they don't care.

    Fair enough, but don't expect to win a referendum that way.
    So in summary we are expected to debate an unknown deal for in vs an unknown deal for out.

    I can't think why the nation at large isn't gripped by this topic..
    That's probably about the most accurate description I've read so far.
    And to think that we may have another two years of this.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Is 34% the joint highest score for Labour post-election ? On this spread, NOM wins.

    Another 35% strategy? Tell us how that went last time.
    No. 42% strategy.
    OK


    Nurse!
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    This is getting more bizarre.

    For sure it seems to mainly have come from the Greens but the Tories do not appear to be getting a similar transfer from UKIP to maintain their lead. This now appears to be a repeated pattern since Corbyn was elected.

    In England and Wales Corbyn is actually helping Labour and I do not understand why this can happen, if I was a voter in England I would be petrified of a hard left Corbyn government especially as he will be in hock to the SNP who can keep Scottish taxes low while Corbyn rockets up everything in England and Wales.
    Looks like some kipper to Labour transfer. Although this is all MoE stuff.
    There is a clear trend across polls, however. Labour have narrowed the gap on the Tories who are fairly static. This should be a concern for everyone outside Scotland who at least will be fully protected from Corbynism by the SNP and Corbyn's reliance on the SNP to govern England.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036

    watford30 said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Innocent until proven guilty in this country.

    One assumes things are different in the Motherland.
    Innocent in the eyes of the law. I'm talking about whether he did it, which is an entirely different matter.
    It's reasonable to say no, since the police dropped the investigation.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Dair said:

    antifrank said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 38% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via ICM / 09 - 11 Oct)

    This is getting more bizarre.

    For sure it seems to mainly have come from the Greens but the Tories do not appear to be getting a similar transfer from UKIP to maintain their lead. This now appears to be a repeated pattern since Corbyn was elected.

    In England and Wales Corbyn is actually helping Labour and I do not understand why this can happen, if I was a voter in England I would be petrified of a hard left Corbyn government especially as he will be in hock to the SNP who can keep Scottish taxes low while Corbyn rockets up everything in England and Wales.
    Polling now is a really rather pointless exercise. There are no elections on the imminent horizon. People are not focusing on any forthcoming campaigns or votes. There is a lot of hot air.

    Corbyn isn't driving support to Labour. Once real elections with real votes start looming large on the event horizon that is when we will see the drop in Labour support - when it really matters. Corbyn is going to be a vote loser for Labour - no matter what the polls say now.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited October 2015
    surbiton said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Let's put it this way. I murder someone and then die. Does it make me innocent ?
    How about, you are alleged to have abused someone and are then diagnosed with Alzheimers. Should you be allowed to escape any trial, and your victims fail to receive justice?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse injustices in the world to be incensed by.

    Everyone - including Lord Brittan - is innocent until proven guilty. No charges were ever laid and an allegation does not prove anything at all.

    An allegation of rape was made against him. The allegation related to years and years ago. The police investigated and found no evidence. Allegedly, under pressure from Watson, they reopened the investigation and again found no evidence. Despite closing it again they did not tell him before his death that the matter was closed. This caused distress to a dying man and his wife.

    Watson also publicised this in the HoC using Parliamentary privilege. He also publicised claims made by another man that Lord B was at the centre of a paedophile network involving him, Harvey Proctor, Edward Heath, Lord Bramall and others, which involved activities allegedly taking place at a South London Guest House. He called Lord B an evil man.

    These allegations have been investigated and, so far, the police have found - I understand - no evidence to support the claims and some evidence, possibly, that the alleged victims may have been coached and/or had names of possible abusers suggested to them, either by a journalistic website, Exaro, and/or by a former Labour councillor with a conviction for fraud who, according to this weekend's newspapers was up for making accusations against Tories (again allegedly). All of this would render any prosecutions most problematic.

    The accusations against Watson are not that he reported the matter to the police, which is entirely proper, but that he (a) may have interfered with a police investigation; (b) abused Parliamentary privilege to make accusations while the investigation was still ongoing for no good reason; and (c) made statements about Lord B's guilt and alleged evilness before the man had even been charged let alone convicted.

    The principle of innocent until proved guilty is absolutely fundamental to our system of justice and Watson, as a lawmaker, should know this and respect it.

    The case against him is that he did not and that his reasons were largely party political and/or self-aggrandisement. He is seeking to confuse matters by claiming that people were trying to stop him raising serious allegations with the proper authorities for them to investigate. This is not the case. Had he done that and only that no-one would be criticising him.

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Is 34% the joint highest score for Labour post-election ? On this spread, NOM wins.

    Another 35% strategy? Tell us how that went last time.
    No. 42% strategy.
    OK


    Nurse!
    She is late coming from the Philipines ! The government is delaying the inevitable.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
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    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse injustices in the world to be incensed by.

    Everyone - including Lord Brittan - is innocent until proven guilty. No charges were ever laid and an allegation does not prove anything at all.

    An allegation of rape was made against him. The allegation related to years and years ago. The police investigated and found no evidence. Allegedly, under pressure from Watson, they reopened the investigation and again found no evidence. Despite closing it again they did not tell him before his death that the matter was closed. This caused distress to a dying man and his wife.

    Watson also publicised this in the HoC using Parliamentary privilege. He also publicised claims made by another man that Lord B was at the centre of a paedophile network involving him, Harvey Proctor, Edward Heath, Lord Bramall and others, which involved activities allegedly taking place at a South London Guest House. He called Lord B an evil man.

    These allegations have been investigated and, so far, the police have found - I understand - no evidence to support the claims and some evidence, possibly, that the alleged victims may have been coached and/or had names of possible abusers suggested to them, either by a journalistic website, Exaro, and/or by a former Labour councillor with a conviction for fraud who, according to this weekend's newspapers was up for making accusations against Tories (again allegedly). All of this would render any prosecutions most problematic.

    The accusations against Watson are not that he reported the matter to the police, which is entirely proper, but that he (a) may have interfered with a police investigation; (b) abused Parliamentary privilege to make accusations while the investigation was still ongoing for no good reason; and (c) made statements about Lord B's guilt and alleged evilness before the man had even been charged let alone convicted.

    The principle of innocent until proved guilty is absolutely fundamental to our system of justice and Watson, as a lawmaker, should know this and respect it.

    The case against him is that he did not and that his reasons were largely party political and/or self-aggrandisement. He is seeking to confuse matters by claiming that people were trying to stop him raising serious allegations with the proper authorities for them to investigate. This is not the case. Had he done that and only that no-one would be criticising him.

    Again, perfectly put.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    watford30 said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Innocent until proven guilty in this country.

    One assumes things are different in the Motherland.
    Innocent in the eyes of the law. I'm talking about whether he did it, which is an entirely different matter.
    I suggest you let this one go. Brittan was never charged. The police investigation was dropped 6 months before he died. Speculating about things you know less-than-nothing about will do you more harm than good.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Is 34% the joint highest score for Labour post-election ? On this spread, NOM wins.

    Another 35% strategy? Tell us how that went last time.
    No. 42% strategy.
    OK


    Nurse!
    She is late coming from the Philipines ! The government is delaying the inevitable.
    I'm sure us rich PB Tories can have a whip round and get you a prompt nurse from the private sector. :D
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036
    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Tories almost at 20%. Utterly sensational.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707
    surbiton said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Let's put it this way. I murder someone and then die. Does it make me innocent ?
    Well quite.

    I can understand where PBers are coming from - especially those who feel that there's a partisan element and their party has been unfairly tainted. However, I feel people here are only acting on the trickle of information coming from an extremely curtailed press.

    Just recently there has been another case, where an 'alleger' against someone very powerful currently in politics has been hounded to the extent of being brought to trial for perverting the course of justice. He's just been acquitted, and his case has gained considerably in credibility. I will not repeat the name out of caution for PB (though it's in the public domain) but the alleger is Ben Fellowes for those who wish to research. So it's not all one way traffic, it's just this stuff doesn't get reported.

    In my opinion, the spring clean has only just started and we haven't even looked behind the dresser.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    LUCKY 1983 innocent in the eyes of everyone..unless you have hard evidence to prove otherwise.or just become a serial smearer like Watson
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,036

    surbiton said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Let's put it this way. I murder someone and then die. Does it make me innocent ?
    Well quite.

    I can understand where PBers are coming from - especially those who feel that there's a partisan element and their party has been unfairly tainted. However, I feel people here are only acting on the trickle of information coming from an extremely curtailed press.

    Just recently there has been another case, where an 'alleger' against someone very powerful currently in politics has been hounded to the extent of being brought to trial for perverting the course of justice. He's just been acquitted, and his case has gained considerably in credibility. I will not repeat the name out of caution for PB (though it's in the public domain) but the alleger is Ben Fellowes for those who wish to research. So it's not all one way traffic, it's just this stuff doesn't get reported.

    In my opinion, the spring clean has only just started and we haven't even looked behind the dresser.
    Ah, the no smoke without fire approach. What a civilised way to administer justice and asign guilt.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    TGOHF said:

    Charles said:

    @Richard_Nabavi

    Your request to know precisely the relationship is a mendacious argument.

    If there is a vote to leave there will be a negotiation period, during which there will also be a democratic debate to determine what the plurality of British voters want.

    I might as well ask you to tell me exactly what the EU will look like in 20 years time. You don't know, and I don't know. We only know that it won't be the same as EU 2015. But that's what "remain" is asking us to vote for.



    If the answer is No, then I might be persuadable to vote to Leave, provided there's a reasonable prospect of defending our trade interests. I was hoping that the Leave side would address this point, and maybe they will. We shall see.

    As you can see, I've got a logical and clearly articulated position. Others may disagree with it, that's fine.
    You have a position that it is impossible for anyone to honestly answer, as you know damn well - given that we have spoken about it before. The Out side cannot possibly say what the future relationship will be. That will be a decision for HMG in negotiation with the EU.

    So bleats about "I'd like to know ..." are disingenuous and, to be frank, beneath you,
    I just want to know what the Leave side would be aiming at (and if it's plausible, of course).

    If the answer is 'Haven't a clue, guv', or 'Who cares?' then that's fine. I'll vote to stay in, as will nearly everyone else.

    What's extraordinary about those arguing against me and even accusing me of being disingenuous is that these are issues which the Leave side absolutely has to address if it is to have any hope of winning. The Remain side's strongest card is the 'leap in the dark' issue. From what the Outers here are saying, it really is a leap in the dark, and they don't care.

    Fair enough, but don't expect to win a referendum that way.
    So in summary we are expected to debate an unknown deal for in vs an unknown deal for out.

    I can't think why the nation at large isn't gripped by this topic..
    That's probably about the most accurate description I've read so far.
    And to think that we may have another two years of this.

    Correct. Two sane voices.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Let's put it this way. I murder someone and then die. Does it make me innocent ?
    Well quite.

    I can understand where PBers are coming from - especially those who feel that there's a partisan element and their party has been unfairly tainted. However, I feel people here are only acting on the trickle of information coming from an extremely curtailed press.

    Just recently there has been another case, where an 'alleger' against someone very powerful currently in politics has been hounded to the extent of being brought to trial for perverting the course of justice. He's just been acquitted, and his case has gained considerably in credibility. I will not repeat the name out of caution for PB (though it's in the public domain) but the alleger is Ben Fellowes for those who wish to research. So it's not all one way traffic, it's just this stuff doesn't get reported.

    In my opinion, the spring clean has only just started and we haven't even looked behind the dresser.
    Ah, the no smoke without fire approach. What a civilised way to administer justice and asign guilt.
    Lucky's Law of Smear.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267

    watford30 said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Innocent until proven guilty in this country.

    One assumes things are different in the Motherland.
    Innocent in the eyes of the law. I'm talking about whether he did it, which is an entirely different matter.
    Not in the UK it isn't. The only method we have for establishing guilt is a trial. It's a pretty well-established and long-standing method. It's designed to stop people making baseless accusations which others then believe and causing real harm to people. People can come up with evidence and put it in the hands of authorities. But what people can't do - or not in a civilised society - is go round saying "Ah well, he may not have been convicted by a court but we all know he's guilty really". We especially can't do that if we're a lawmaker whom some of the more naive among us would like to think would have some passing acquaintance with - if not actual respect for - one of the basic precepts of English criminal law.

    This is exactly the sort of activity for which the press were criticised over Christopher Jeffreys (implying his guilt). It is odd given Watson's links with Hacked Off that he has apparently done the same sort of smear job that the papers did there and which he roundly criticised.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Brexit prize winner - he suggested EFTA, I agree. Note the broadly neutral impact on GDP but an accelerated focus of the UK onto emerging markets that may grow much faster in future:

    http://www.iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-iea-brexit-prize-a-blueprint-for-britain-openness-not-isolation
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Where can you see the ICM poll VI

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_oct_guardian_poll.pdf

    Scottish Subsample is 54/22/18, Kezia holding the Tories off, SNP pretty much static in the mid 50s.
    Thanks.

    UKIP retaining 80% of their GE2015 vote. Greens 58%, LD 56%.

    These are 56% their truncated vote base. Can this party survive ? Whilst taking into account sub-samples, the UKIP vote is centred around the Midlands and the South. Only 7% in the North.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    Brexit prize winner - he suggested EFTA, I agree. Note the broadly neutral impact on GDP but an accelerated focus of the UK onto emerging markets that may grow much faster in future:

    http://www.iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-iea-brexit-prize-a-blueprint-for-britain-openness-not-isolation

    Note the proposal does include for the free movement of people.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    watford30 said:

    Sorry to be out of sync with the PB mood, but the awkward point remains, what is the nature of Leon Brittan's exoneration? No-one can seem to tell me. The police have dropped their investigation - fine. Does that make him innocent? If not, he got away with his crimes completely and died of natural causes before facing justice. There are worse calumnies in the world to be incensed by.

    Innocent until proven guilty in this country.

    One assumes things are different in the Motherland.
    Innocent in the eyes of the law. I'm talking about whether he did it, which is an entirely different matter.
    Not in the UK it isn't. The only method we have for establishing guilt is a trial. It's a pretty well-established and long-standing method. It's designed to stop people making baseless accusations which others then believe and causing real harm to people. People can come up with evidence and put it in the hands of authorities. But what people can't do - or not in a civilised society - is go round saying "Ah well, he may not have been convicted by a court but we all know he's guilty really". We especially can't do that if we're a lawmaker whom some of the more naive among us would like to think would have some passing acquaintance with - if not actual respect for - one of the basic precepts of English criminal law.

    This is exactly the sort of activity for which the press were criticised over Christopher Jeffreys (implying his guilt). It is odd given Watson's links with Hacked Off that he has apparently done the same sort of smear job that the papers did there and which he roundly criticised.
    Like Hattie, Lucky is a believer in the Court of Public Opinion. Where Hattie stands on the OWG, contrails, 9/11, the 'moon landings', UFOs, and our Lizard Overlords is unclear.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    Brexit prize winner - he suggested EFTA, I agree. Note the broadly neutral impact on GDP but an accelerated focus of the UK onto emerging markets that may grow much faster in future:

    http://www.iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-iea-brexit-prize-a-blueprint-for-britain-openness-not-isolation

    Note the proposal does not include for the free movement of people.
    Edit: Does not!
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    New Thread New Thread

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    I expect we will sign up for free movement of labour, but not free movement of job seekers, free movement of welfare recipients or an obligation to advertise jobs to all EU citizens in preference to any non-EU citizen.

    I'm reasonably confident that Cameron will get much of that as part of his renegotiation - obviously that's one of the things where we'll need to wait and see.
    Without structural protections on QMV none of it matters. And that probably needs treaty change.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    @Richard_Nabavi

    Your request to know precisely the relationship is a mendacious argument.

    If there is a vote to leave there will be a negotiation period, during which there will also be a democratic debate to determine what the plurality of British voters want.

    I might as well ask you to tell me exactly what the EU will look like in 20 years time. You don't know, and I don't know. We only know that it won't be the same as EU 2015. But that's what "remain" is asking us to vote for.

    Here is Farage yesterday from about 7:50 in this clip talking about what would happen if we voted LEAVE

    http://youtu.be/NrdZiHAUoUQ
    I've no interest in what Farage has to say.

    I don't trust his judgement and I don't trust his motives.
    One for the Christmas list

    http://kids-wholesale-dropship.doba.com/la_la_la_i_m_not_listening_headband_case_pack_6_distributor_106425831.php
    Why would I waste my time engaing with someone whose judgement I don't rate?

    I'm busy enough as it is.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    Just watched Goldeneye..20 year old Bond movie...absolutely brilliant

    It was the first Bond movie for 6 years since 1989's Licence To Kill.
    Was it really 20 years ago?

    F*** that makes me feel old!
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    On a slightly different theme that illustrate the man. There's a great piece about how Cameron is effectively allied with Al Qaeda in Syria. How did it come to this? Worth a read at:

    http://john-moloney.blogspot.com/2015/10/russia-spoils-everything.html
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