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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Politicalbetting/Polling Matters podcast: Conser

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  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Another right wing journalist in the Murdoch press:

    When he hounded a dying man to his grave, Watson sank lower than the News of the World reporters he and Hacked Off once fought. However invasive and prurient their scoops, they were at least true. Unless convincing witnesses come forward, you will not be able to say the same about Watson’s “exposé”.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/deserved-downfall-tom-watson-leon-brittan

    Wow - that is some job on Watson. So well deserved. But will the tide really turn and sweep him away into the sewers where he belongs.
  • Dair said:

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    Floater said:
    Dave doesn't appear to be asking for much. A once in a generation chance to alter our relationship with the EU and this is all he asks for....

    Not part of ever closer union... ever.
    Euro not to be the sole currency, EU a multi currency union
    National parliaments ability to stop unwanted directives and to scrap existing EU laws
    An entirely new structure for the EU itself, the eurozone to be unable to 'dominate' the other members, with specific protection for the city.

    ?????
    Which part of 'entirely new structure' do you regard as not asking for much??
    Just off the top of my head and not including wider EU reform:
    1. The ability to sign our own FTAs.
    2. Opt out from the CAP.
    3. Opt out from the CFP.
    4. Supremacy of UK law over EU law.
    5. Repatriation of social policy.
    6. Repatriation of employment law.

    None of these really matter if we are going to be held back by an unreformed EU.
    The irony is that most of those apply if you are in EEA. Unless you want a tariff based trade agreement with the EU, you are signing up to all of that. Plus Shengen.
    Your number (4) renders the rest unnecessary.

    The supremacy of UK law would mean that the government could simply agree an FTA. Or opt out of the CAP. Or simply not pay the EU budget...

    It is as it were, completely contrary to the concept of the EU.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Lord Brittan accuser admits targeting Tory ‘rightwingers’

    The man who initiated paedophile claims against Leon Brittan admitted yesterday that he was “right up for witch-hunts against rightwing Tories”. Chris Fay, a former social worker and Labour councillor in south London, passed allegations about Lord Brittan of Spennithorne to Tom Watson, now the Labour deputy leader, who has led the campaign to expose what he claims is a “powerful paedophile network” linked to Westminster. Mr Fay’s apparent admission of a political motive will increase pressure on Mr Watson, who has faced criticism over his role."


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    MP_SE said:

    Floater said:
    Dave doesn't appear to be asking for much. A once in a generation chance to alter our relationship with the EU and this is all he asks for....

    "But government figures say there is not enough time to deliver treaty changes before the referendum is held, by the end of 2017."

    Finally an admission of reality. I would think he can get most of those 4 points, shrug. The first two are just statements of (non-)intent - he could have them tomorrow. The third is not feasible before 2017, but they'll be willing to say they'll work on some such arrangement if a large block of countries wanted to change their minds on some power. The fourth is primarily the protection for the City which I've always thought is the concrete thing they'd be OK with - there isn't time for some total redesign, but I'm sure they'd be happy to state that they won't impose rules on the City by QMV.

    There will no doubt be some ceremonial duelling, but in the end, if that's the total package, it looks achievable. The absence of anything on free movement makes it saleable to Europe and the absence of a roll-back on employment rights will avoid Labour hostility.
    What happens on the EU immigration crisis will determine how the UK votes. There may not be an EU to stay in.
    Cam is going to recommend out - put money on it.
    OK £10 says he doesn't. I win £10 from you if he backs in, I pay you £10 if he backs out, bet void if he makes no recommendation Do you agree to the bet?
    Yes. He hasn't backed a losing cause yet. Well apart from the LDs..

    OK its a bet. Do you want to exchange details with anyone?

    Him backing the LDs was not a losing cause for him or the Tories. Cameron was like a black widow with the Lib Dems, he mated with them for five years and once that was done consumed them.
    Yep if required - hopefully my reputation for paying up on stupid bets is excellent round here.
    I'm happy to go with that then. Good luck.
  • Dair said:

    MattW said:

    Is there a factory somewhere stamping out boneheaded senior policement with no sense of sane judgement?

    They did a this self same thing in 2009:

    > Hundreds of officers had threatened to defy the order and an online petition calling on Gordon Brown to intervene attracted more than 3,000 signatures.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1202882/Banned-police-Union-Flag-badge-backs-troops.html#ixzz3oD0BJHzk

    Police should have absolutely no political stance. It should be drilled in to them that they have no allegiance to a flag or a monarch or a party or an ideology or any aspect of political life. Police should do one thing ONLY, to uphold the law as it is laid out at the time they serve.

    Nothing more.
    Flag and monarch represent the law of the land. They are symbols of the laws they are there to protect.
  • Dair said:

    Tony Blair, John Major, Gordon Brown & Karren Brady to lead 'Keep Britain in the EU'
    Farewell my Continental friends https://t.co/Igi25yOk0w

    If they get rid of the three Bs, then John Major could be a very successful Remain leader.

    TBH I'm quite encouraged by the incompetence of Remain so far. Lord Rose? A Lord? Hahahha. with Scotland currently 80:20 for Remain, it would be perfect to watch England walk into economic oblivion and trigger a Yes vote in Scotland.
    I think involving Brown and Blair would strongly increase the possibility of a Leave win. They are both toxic for various reasons.

    Brady getting involved will see her having to absent herself from The Apprentice - and I quite like her on there.

    Major is a voice that many will listen to - but he has never had to necessary charisma to inspire during what will be a very bruising campaign. Fine as an elder statesman figure - but not a figurehead for the entire campaign.
    Brady would only have to absent herself if The Apprentice were on during the Purdah window (which is quite narrow). The Apprentice has been moved to a different time of year now so it no longer clashes with elections for that reason (Sugar used to campaign Labour, Brady this time did campaign Conservative).
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Another right wing journalist in the Murdoch press:

    When he hounded a dying man to his grave, Watson sank lower than the News of the World reporters he and Hacked Off once fought. However invasive and prurient their scoops, they were at least true. Unless convincing witnesses come forward, you will not be able to say the same about Watson’s “exposé”.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/deserved-downfall-tom-watson-leon-brittan

    Wow - that is some job on Watson. So well deserved. But will the tide really turn and sweep him away into the sewers where he belongs.
    The Grauniad sometimes surprises me with its balance then along comes Zoe Williams
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Everyone knows what Watson is about as they do Corbyn. The important thing to remember is the rank and file voted massively for both of them. Tells you all you need to know about this Labour Party and its dark direction.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    I wish I could find a law that Watson has broken for his interference in the operation of the criminal justice system. It cannot be right for any politician to seek to put pressure on the CPS and the Police in the way he has done.

    I wonder whether something could be found in the area of Misconduct in Public Office. It has to be worth a try.

    It also brings into doubt the concept of Parliamentary Privilege. He has abused that.

    The man is not fit to be an MP let alone a heart-beat away from being the leader of his party.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Another right wing journalist in the Murdoch press:

    When he hounded a dying man to his grave, Watson sank lower than the News of the World reporters he and Hacked Off once fought. However invasive and prurient their scoops, they were at least true. Unless convincing witnesses come forward, you will not be able to say the same about Watson’s “exposé”.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/deserved-downfall-tom-watson-leon-brittan

    Wow - that is some job on Watson. So well deserved. But will the tide really turn and sweep him away into the sewers where he belongs.
    The Grauniad sometimes surprises me with its balance then along comes Zoe Williams
    She really is a special piece of work. So lacking in basic things like intelligence, common sense and human decency.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Some pretty unconvincing numbers for Hillary Clinton vs Trump:

    Florida: Clinton 46%, Trump 41%
    Ohio: Clinton 43%, Trump 42%
    Pennsylvania: Clinton 44%, Trump 42%
    Iowa: Trump 48%, Clinton 41%
    New Hampshire: Clinton 48%, Trump 45%

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2015
    It will be interesting to see how assiduously Mr Vaz and committee pursue Mr Watson.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/leon-brittan-rape-inquiry-tom-watson-could-face-grilling-over-efforts-to-re-examine-unproven-claims-a6689346.html

    Curiously enough Mr Vaz was a local politician in Barnes at the time of the Elm Guest House scandal, but has no recollection of it....

    https://spotlightonabuse.wordpress.com/2013/02/15/keith-vaz-and-the-mystery-of-barnes-common/
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