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Osborne's delivery very poor. He'll need to improve dramatically if he wants to succeed Cameron pic.twitter.com/3OBe7BLPzP

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Beverley_C

1st

DaemonBarber

I thought his delivery was pitched well... He is often accused of being sneering & aloof, and better than sounding overly triumphant too.

He was trying to persuade that he actually means what he says.
Overall I thought it a good speech delivered well (considering who was delivering it)

MTimT

Curse o' t' new thread

Slackbladder

Yeah, but if he's against corbyn....

TGOHF

Biz rate devolution will create some powerful councils.

edmundintokyo

Does speech-making delivery matter for these purposes? Thinking about people who took over in office, Major wasn't brilliant, Brown was a bit meh, HW Bush nothing to write home about, etc etc.

DaemonBarber

TGOHF said:

Biz rate devolution will create some powerful councils.

Hopefully it will reinvigorate local politics.

Jonathan

Fallon's delivery is strong and he's very political. An outside bet?

isam

I don't know if speech making is all that important ( that means I don't know not I don't think it is) but Osborne doesn't seem very good at it.

He waited for applause that barely came once or twice

And the glottal stops have gotta stop

Blue_rog

Curse of a new thread

Industrial relations - French Style

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/11911943/AIr-Frances-HR-boss-his-shirt-as-he-escapes-furious-mob.html

JEO

stodge,

The success of UKIP was a result of the tension that built up in the Conservative party over the EU, not the cause. (Although it has now mutated into reflecting immigration concerns across the spectrum.)

There are certainly powerful interests backing REMAIN, mainly big business, but they are not as strongly for REMAIN as the media often thinks. The CBI had difficulty agreeing to a strong position on this, because many of their members are either small businesses who are affected by EU regulation but don't export, or because they are big businesses who care more about non-EU exports and see Brexit as a potential for getting new trade deals. I think they are scared witless at the idea of an uncontrolled exit out of the EU and losing free trade, but I think if Cameron said to them "look, if I lead the LEAVE camp, I can make sure we control the process and keep a trade deal that protects your EU exports", then he could defuse much of the pressure.

If Cameron recommends REMAIN with a good deal, I think he will face continued unrest from the Right. If he recommends REMAIN with a bad deal, I don't think people will leave the party, but he will have to resign afterwards, and I suspect a LEAVER will win the next election. Unless the parliamentary party only puts two REMAINERS up, and then the party will be plunged into crisis.

If Cameron recommends LEAVE, I think a couple MPs might resign the whip and go independent, but they have nowhere to go so most will stay in. I can't see them joining the Lib Dems, who are a busted flush. New Labour could have recruited them, but the way the Labour Party has become so left-wing stops that.

If Cameron wants to keep the party together, LEAVE might be the best option. Cameron can push that to big business too. "Look, we might leave the EU, but we can get a good business deal, and if I don't do this, my party will split and Jeremy Corbyn could get in."

taffys

I still don't think Osborne will succeed Dave. The right of the party, emboldened by the total feebleness of the opposition, will have their day.

Plato_Says

Paul Waugh
Asked if Osborne business rate announcement will lead to councils/cityregions trying to grab trade from each other, Treasury source: "Yes"

david_herdson

Question. Does this speech prove that Osborne wants to be leader, or does it prove that he doesn't need to be leader?

TGOHF

JEO said:

If Cameron recommends LEAVE, I think a couple MPs might resign the whip and go independent, but they have nowhere to go so most will stay in. I can't see them joining the Lib Dems, who are a busted flush. New Labour could have recruited them, but the way the Labour Party has become so left-wing stops that.

In this scenario then the Uk will vote to leave the EU - because 1) the PM will be saying the EU cannot accommodate us and 2) Those supporting "Remain" will have to defend the deal offered as being a good one - which will be very difficult.

Danny565

Stephen Bush ‏@stephenkb 1h1 hour ago
Osborne has a Milibandy quality: there is something about him that makes people say "there's something about this guy I don't like". #cpc15

TheScreamingEagles

david_herdson said:

Question. Does this speech prove that Osborne wants to be leader, or does it prove that he doesn't need to be leader?

He wants to be Leader. I had my doubts before, I'm now convinced he wants it. He knows he could be PM until 2025. He would have achieved all of that before he's 55.

Scott_P

@DPJHodges: When Osborne stood up I thought to myself "it's odd. He doesn't quite look like a PM". I didn't think that at the end.

Danny565

edmundintokyo said:

Does speech-making delivery matter for these purposes? Thinking about people who took over in office, Major wasn't brilliant, Brown was a bit meh, HW Bush nothing to write home about, etc etc.

It probably doesn't matter much in terms of getting the job from the Tory selectorate, but it (and his lack of Major-esque likeability) will be a big problem for him in terms of popular support after he gets the job.

TheScreamingEagles

FYI the reason the audience was subdued, some had to queue for nearly two hours to get in

In typical Manchester weather.

Plus we don't want to appear hubristic or triumphalist

kle4

A shame for him that there is something about him that puts people off (a punchable face, I think a thread header once described it), and that might be wrong, but that's the way people are, the person presenting a good idea to us is more important most of the time than the idea itself.

We people are very easy to manipulate like that - to tie into the earlier discussion about unlikable fantasy stories, it reminds me of a series (Prince of Nothing or something like that), where a guy had been trained for ages in the ways of face, thought and deed, to the point he could manipulate anyone to like him, hate him or love him purely by calculated analysis of them through their features, and presenting his own face and voice in just the right way to convince people every time. They came across as sociopathic, but there is an element of truth that we are easily convinced or not by silly things like good presentation.

TGOHF

Plato_Says said:

Paul Waugh
Asked if Osborne business rate announcement will lead to councils/cityregions trying to grab trade from each other, Treasury source: "Yes"

Answer should have been "we bloody hope so"

MikeSmithson

Just go back to the 2005 conference and remember how the then leadership favourite, David Davis, bombed in his conference speech - in sharp contrast to Cameron. Inspiring the Tory faithful is important. Only exception is if your opponent is Ken Clarke.

Plato_Says

@GerryHassan

#Osborne plagiarised: "We have been the dreamers, we have been the sufferers, now we are the builders." Nye Bevan in 1945 election. #CPC15

DaemonBarber

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI the reason the audience was subdued, some had to queue for nearly two hours to get in

In typical Manchester weather.

Plus we don't want to appear hubristic or triumphalist

I thought he handled that aspect pretty well, especially when jibbing at or camping on Labour's turf.

Others have stated here that GO has a "likeability" problem, I think he knows this full well and deliberately tried to keep a lid on it.

He wants to succeed DC, this much is now clear.

TGOHF

MikeSmithson said:

Inspiring the Tory faithful is important. Only exception is if your opponent is Ken Clarke.

Or Corbyn..

Plato_Says

Years ago I said he had a Slytherine quality about his manner and appearance - pale skin/dark hair.

I don't think he can get passed that myself.

Danny565 said:

Stephen Bush ‏@stephenkb 1h1 hour ago
Osborne has a Milibandy quality: there is something about him that makes people say "there's something about this guy I don't like". #cpc15

TheScreamingEagles

I'm someone who wasn't a fan of Osborne. A few years ago I wrote a thread header saying replace Osborne with Ken Clarke.

I'm glad Dave didn't listen to me in that instance.

Scott_P

@OwenJones84: Just had "Tory scumbag" yelled at me as I walked into Tory conference. Novel! The look on their faces when I turned around

stodge

Afternoon all

The business rate issue (particularly the ability to set them locally) has been a key plank of devolution proposals from Councils of all stripes (from Surrey to Newham in fact). It's long been an absurdity of centralisation.

I'm unclear however as to what this means - IF Councils like Newham and Surrey kept to keep the UBR monies raised locally, will this mean a consequent reduction in any central funding ? One of the problems of allowing Councils to set UBR locally (and one of the reasons why this was prevented in the 1980s) was it allowed Councils to circumvent capping and raise more funds locally from business.

The argument goes businesses "could" move from a higher UBR area to a lower UBR area but would this happen in reality ?

Richard_Nabavi

I see that my new MP Nus Ghani got to sit next to Cammo (bottom picture).

Plato_Says

That looks very scary.

Blue_rog said:

Curse of a new thread

Industrial relations - French Style

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/11911943/AIr-Frances-HR-boss-his-shirt-as-he-escapes-furious-mob.html

Barnesian

TGOHF said:

JEO said:

If Cameron recommends LEAVE, I think a couple MPs might resign the whip and go independent, but they have nowhere to go so most will stay in. I can't see them joining the Lib Dems, who are a busted flush. New Labour could have recruited them, but the way the Labour Party has become so left-wing stops that.

In this scenario then the Uk will vote to leave the EU - because 1) the PM will be saying the EU cannot accommodate us and 2) Those supporting "Remain" will have to defend the deal offered as being a good one - which will be very difficult.

We know what the answer is. Cameron will recommend remaining no matter what, but he can't say that. It's the same as his finger on the nuclear button. He would never press it in any circumstances but he can't say that either.

On Osborne, I think the dishonesty around the impact of reducing tax credit benefits of poor working families will backfire on him in the next couple of months. Marr - "Don't you agree that many poor hard working families are going to have a miserable Christmas as a result of your actions yet you say you are the party of labour?".

If I were Corbyn I would hammer the dishonesty point.

Richard_Nabavi

Osborne isn't a razzmatazz speech-maker, that is true.

But look at the photo: 'Security, Stability, Opportunity' (twice!).

That is going to be his platform (and the Conservative message in 2020). Does he need razzmatazz in that context?

HYUFD

John Major of course won the 1992 election. Against Corbyn Osborne could be so boring he makes an accountants convention look more exciting and still win. Corbyn's delivery was also poor last week anyway so if he is still Labour leader Osborne should have few concerns

taffys

'Inspiring the Tory faithful is important.

I reckon many tory MPs in their heart of hearts believe they are being led by a Blairite. Many will not have forgotten the coalition years, where Dave may a stack of enemies.

They will want their next leader to be a conservative.

Plato_Says

Nothing better to do this afternoon?


14.30 – 16.00 - Energy & Climate Change, Communities & Local Government and Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change
Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government
Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

DaemonBarber

stodge said:

Afternoon all

The business rate issue (particularly the ability to set them locally) has been a key plank of devolution proposals from Councils of all stripes (from Surrey to Newham in fact). It's long been an absurdity of centralisation.

I'm unclear however as to what this means - IF Councils like Newham and Surrey kept to keep the UBR monies raised locally, will this mean a consequent reduction in any central funding ? One of the problems of allowing Councils to set UBR locally (and one of the reasons why this was prevented in the 1980s) was it allowed Councils to circumvent capping and raise more funds locally from business.

The argument goes businesses "could" move from a higher UBR area to a lower UBR area but would this happen in reality ?

It came across that the councils could lower the rate to attract inward investment. And could if local businesses agreed supplement the rate with a 2p top-up to fund infrastructure investment.

kle4

This business rate change, what are the risks? My local Tory council has always been asking for this type of change so I've never seen it portrayed as being a bad thing, but there is always another side, if not always a convincing one, so I'm curious.

taffys

'If I were Corbyn I would hammer the dishonesty point'.

Jeremy 'kinder politics' Corbyn hammering dishonesty? With his fellow travellers hurling spit and abuse at a rival political party?

foxinsoxuk

Richard_Nabavi said:

Osborne isn't a razzmatazz speech-maker, that is true.

But look at the photo: 'Security, Stability, Opportunity' (twice!).

That is going to be his platform (and the Conservative message in 2020). Does he need razzmatazz in that context?

If I want excitement then I will go to the footy. I am quite happy for a dull but competent person to run the country. The designated driver if you like!

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

Just go back to the 2005 conference and remember how the then leadership favourite, David Davis, bombed in his conference speech - in sharp contrast to Cameron. Inspiring the Tory faithful is important. Only exception is if your opponent is Ken Clarke.

Against Corbyn the Tories could pick Steve Davis, the dullest man in Britain and win. John Major beat Heseltine too who was a better orator

Plato_Says

It depends on your mindset and business mix - if you're not competitive, then the next door council could steal business rates off you via relocations.

Or if you're pretty anti-business, well then you're inviting less income as businesses will move out/not come at all. Or if you're dominated by a single business...

The fine detail will be interesting.

kle4 said:

This business rate change, what are the risks? My local Tory council has always been asking for this type of change so I've never seen it portrayed as being a bad thing, but there is always another side, if not always a convincing one, so I'm curious.

Scott_P

Richard_Nabavi said:

Osborne isn't a razzmatazz speech-maker, that is true.

But look at the photo: 'Security, Stability, Opportunity' (twice!).

That is going to be his platform (and the Conservative message in 2020). Does he need razzmatazz in that context?

Not Flash, Just Gordon.

The fact that Gordo looked and sounded terrible, humourless, hectoring, turgid, didn't stop him becoming PM

The difference is Osborne would know what he wanted to do when he got there

Scott_P

@hopisen: Osborne speech in six words: All the right people were subdued.

Plato_Says

Neil on the DP said in all the decades he'd attended confs - he'd never ever seen journalists spat on or shouted SCUM at. He made quite a point of it.

taffys said:

'If I were Corbyn I would hammer the dishonesty point'.

Jeremy 'kinder politics' Corbyn hammering dishonesty? With his fellow travellers hurling spit and abuse at a rival political party?

Scott_P

George will be happy with this photo on the front pages

https://twitter.com/speccoffeehouse/status/651007652332457984

taffys

''The fine detail will be interesting.''

Essentially is seems like a poison pill for labour councils.

Richard_Tyndall

kle4 said:

This business rate change, what are the risks? My local Tory council has always been asking for this type of change so I've never seen it portrayed as being a bad thing, but there is always another side, if not always a convincing one, so I'm curious.

The risks are in those areas with an ideological Left Wing council that thinks it can raise taxes on evil businesses and try to spend lots of money it doesn't have. It risks creating ghettos of Left Wing failure where all the businesses move out and services collapse.

I am not saying this is a reason not to do it. Were it not for the human cost in those areas it would be amusing to see the failure of extreme left wing ideology in action. But it does risk seriously damaging some areas in the short to medium term.

david_herdson

kle4 said:

A shame for him that there is something about him that puts people off (a punchable face, I think a thread header once described it), and that might be wrong, but that's the way people are, the person presenting a good idea to us is more important most of the time than the idea itself.

We people are very easy to manipulate like that - to tie into the earlier discussion about unlikable fantasy stories, it reminds me of a series (Prince of Nothing or something like that), where a guy had been trained for ages in the ways of face, thought and deed, to the point he could manipulate anyone to like him, hate him or love him purely by calculated analysis of them through their features, and presenting his own face and voice in just the right way to convince people every time. They came across as sociopathic, but there is an element of truth that we are easily convinced or not by silly things like good presentation.

It was in the text rather than the header:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/11/pax-osbornia-recasting-the-political-landscape-into-the-2030s/#respond

However, what's changed since I wrote that is that Corbyn is now Labour leader. Osborne is still not an ideal frontman but against Corbyn, he'd be the better of the two presentationally, and lightyears ahead on virtually every other political metric.

Richard_Nabavi

The return of business rates to councils (reversing a major Maggie policy!) should be seen in the wider context of devolution of tax-raising powers to Scotland, and of course elected mayors and the northern powerhouse.

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that Osborne is serious about localism.

taffys

''It risks creating ghettos of Left Wing failure where all the businesses move out and services collapse.''

Or labour councils could choose to ditch the ideology, become business friendly and grow richer.

That's where the poison pill comes in.

Danny565

david_herdson said:

kle4 said:

A shame for him that there is something about him that puts people off (a punchable face, I think a thread header once described it), and that might be wrong, but that's the way people are, the person presenting a good idea to us is more important most of the time than the idea itself.

We people are very easy to manipulate like that - to tie into the earlier discussion about unlikable fantasy stories, it reminds me of a series (Prince of Nothing or something like that), where a guy had been trained for ages in the ways of face, thought and deed, to the point he could manipulate anyone to like him, hate him or love him purely by calculated analysis of them through their features, and presenting his own face and voice in just the right way to convince people every time. They came across as sociopathic, but there is an element of truth that we are easily convinced or not by silly things like good presentation.

It was in the text rather than the header:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/11/pax-osbornia-recasting-the-political-landscape-into-the-2030s/#respond

However, what's changed since I wrote that is that Corbyn is now Labour leader. Osborne is still not an ideal frontman but against Corbyn, he'd be the better of the two presentationally, and lightyears ahead on virtually every other political metric.

When YouGov asked who they'd prefer to be PM, Osborne had a 9% lead over Corbyn - which sounds good, until you consider that is less than half of the lead Cameron had over Miliband.

BannedInParis

taffys said:

''It risks creating ghettos of Left Wing failure where all the businesses move out and services collapse.''

Or labour councils could choose to ditch the ideology, become business friendly and grow richer.

That's where the poison pill comes in.

decent recent bit on this in the economist.

Plato_Says

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-unveils-devolution-revolution

Full details here

GeoffM

Scott_P said:

@OwenJones84: Just had "Tory scumbag" yelled at me as I walked into Tory conference. Novel! The look on their faces when I turned around

I find it very unlikely that he was recognised so easily.
I doubt 1 PBer in 20 could pick him out of a police line-up.
Ego is a dangerous thing for a C-list politician to have.

TCPoliticalBetting

The members have seen that he cannot deliver a barn storming speech to uplift and inspire. The MPs will note that failing. Osborne now has an image question which will erode his chances of getting on the two person ballot from MPs.
Q: Will my chances of being re-elected be best with this insipid chap?

Richard_Tyndall

Richard_Nabavi said:

The return of business rates to councils (reversing a major Maggie policy!) should be seen in the wider context of devolution of tax-raising powers to Scotland, and of course elected mayors and the northern powerhouse.

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that Osborne is serious about localism.

Something he should be applauded for.

felix

As so often over the past few years the thread header fails to 'get' Osborne - I suspect the result of personal dislike as anything else. The humility some showed after getting the election so spectacularly wrong is fading and the 'hacks' who've had it in for Ozzy for years are nowhere nearer understanding what makes him tick than before. I think Dan Hodges and Hopisen are the nearest so far. I don't know yet if he wants to lead the party but they'd surely give him a try if he does decide to go for it.

Slackbladder

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm someone who wasn't a fan of Osborne. A few years ago I wrote a thread header saying replace Osborne with Ken Clarke.

I'm glad Dave didn't listen to me in that instance.

are you tim in disguise? i seem to remember him saying similar.

watford30

GeoffM said:

Scott_P said:

@OwenJones84: Just had "Tory scumbag" yelled at me as I walked into Tory conference. Novel! The look on their faces when I turned around

I find it very unlikely that he was recognised so easily.
I doubt 1 PBer in 20 could pick him out of a police line-up.
Ego is a dangerous thing for a C-list politician to have.

'C-list politician'? He's a Lefty journalist.

felix

"Given the CON successes of the past year you’d expect him to be more upbeat" - and if he had been the screams from Smithson towers would be 'hubris, hubris'.

Slackbladder

Lets put it this way.

Osborne was speaking out to the country in nearly everything he did

Corbyn was speaking out to the conference in nearly everything he did

Which will prove wiser in 2020?

Danny565

Slackbladder said:

Lets put it this way.

Osborne was speaking out to the country in nearly everything he did

Corbyn was speaking out to the conference in nearly everything he did

Which will prove wiser in 2020?

Yeah, I'm not sure "speaking out" to low-paid Labour workers will work if he's simultaneously cutting their wages.

felix

Danny565 said:

david_herdson said:

kle4 said:

A shame for him that there is something about him that puts people off (a punchable face, I think a thread header once described it), and that might be wrong, but that's the way people are, the person presenting a good idea to us is more important most of the time than the idea itself.

We people are very easy to manipulate like that - to tie into the earlier discussion about unlikable fantasy stories, it reminds me of a series (Prince of Nothing or something like that), where a guy had been trained for ages in the ways of face, thought and deed, to the point he could manipulate anyone to like him, hate him or love him purely by calculated analysis of them through their features, and presenting his own face and voice in just the right way to convince people every time. They came across as sociopathic, but there is an element of truth that we are easily convinced or not by silly things like good presentation.

It was in the text rather than the header:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/11/pax-osbornia-recasting-the-political-landscape-into-the-2030s/#respond

However, what's changed since I wrote that is that Corbyn is now Labour leader. Osborne is still not an ideal frontman but against Corbyn, he'd be the better of the two presentationally, and lightyears ahead on virtually every other political metric.

When YouGov asked who they'd prefer to be PM, Osborne had a 9% lead over Corbyn - which sounds good, until you consider that is less than half of the lead Cameron had over Miliband.

All this desperate quoting of YG polling would be funny if it wasn't so mind crushingly stupid.

david_herdson

Danny565 said:

david_herdson said:

kle4 said:

A shame for him that there is something about him that puts people off (a punchable face, I think a thread header once described it), and that might be wrong, but that's the way people are, the person presenting a good idea to us is more important most of the time than the idea itself.

We people are very easy to manipulate like that - to tie into the earlier discussion about unlikable fantasy stories, it reminds me of a series (Prince of Nothing or something like that), where a guy had been trained for ages in the ways of face, thought and deed, to the point he could manipulate anyone to like him, hate him or love him purely by calculated analysis of them through their features, and presenting his own face and voice in just the right way to convince people every time. They came across as sociopathic, but there is an element of truth that we are easily convinced or not by silly things like good presentation.

It was in the text rather than the header:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/11/pax-osbornia-recasting-the-political-landscape-into-the-2030s/#respond

However, what's changed since I wrote that is that Corbyn is now Labour leader. Osborne is still not an ideal frontman but against Corbyn, he'd be the better of the two presentationally, and lightyears ahead on virtually every other political metric.

When YouGov asked who they'd prefer to be PM, Osborne had a 9% lead over Corbyn - which sounds good, until you consider that is less than half of the lead Cameron had over Miliband.

Plenty of time for that to change. Miliband's ratings were quite impressive to begin with.

Richard_Nabavi

Whatever happened to the idea that major policy announcements should be made in parliament?

Danny565

felix said:

Danny565 said:

david_herdson said:

kle4 said:

A shame for him that there is something about him that puts people off (a punchable face, I think a thread header once described it), and that might be wrong, but that's the way people are, the person presenting a good idea to us is more important most of the time than the idea itself.

We people are very easy to manipulate like that - to tie into the earlier discussion about unlikable fantasy stories, it reminds me of a series (Prince of Nothing or something like that), where a guy had been trained for ages in the ways of face, thought and deed, to the point he could manipulate anyone to like him, hate him or love him purely by calculated analysis of them through their features, and presenting his own face and voice in just the right way to convince people every time. They came across as sociopathic, but there is an element of truth that we are easily convinced or not by silly things like good presentation.

It was in the text rather than the header:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/11/pax-osbornia-recasting-the-political-landscape-into-the-2030s/#respond

However, what's changed since I wrote that is that Corbyn is now Labour leader. Osborne is still not an ideal frontman but against Corbyn, he'd be the better of the two presentationally, and lightyears ahead on virtually every other political metric.

When YouGov asked who they'd prefer to be PM, Osborne had a 9% lead over Corbyn - which sounds good, until you consider that is less than half of the lead Cameron had over Miliband.

All this desperate quoting of YG polling would be funny if it wasn't so mind crushingly stupid.

??? The YouGov polling was wrong on the headline voting intention, but the "best PM" ratings (and economic competence ratings) proved prescient.

Scott_P

@michaelsavage: .@ConHome poll showing Osborne has robust lead among Tory members. Is he peaking too soon? http://t.co/BLsXGRvDQX http://t.co/lcr2LoJFkX

Charles

kle4 said:

This business rate change, what are the risks? My local Tory council has always been asking for this type of change so I've never seen it portrayed as being a bad thing, but there is always another side, if not always a convincing one, so I'm curious.

I think the issue was that, in the 80s, certain loony left councils were soaking businesses to the detriment of their local economies, safe in the knowledge that central government would have to pick up the bill (unemployment) or face the political consequences.

That's why it was centralised.

Presumably Osborne thinks the loony left has gone away...

TGOHF

Richard_Nabavi said:

Whatever happened to the idea that major policy announcements should be made in parliament?

One should commend the Labour party for sticking to that principle all last week.

MikeSmithson

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Osborne isn't a razzmatazz speech-maker, that is true.

But look at the photo: 'Security, Stability, Opportunity' (twice!).

That is going to be his platform (and the Conservative message in 2020). Does he need razzmatazz in that context?

If I want excitement then I will go to the footy. I am quite happy for a dull but competent person to run the country. The designated driver if you like!

Funny that we haven't heard much from Chelsea/MUFC fans in the past few days

Plato_Says

I missed Javid's speech yesterday - was he any good? He was terrible on SPols.

I've seen about half of the speeches and it's all been rather dull - Fallon is good but in a don't-scare-the-horses way that isn't exciting either.

Gove had a few good bits, but delegate applause seemed a bit flat - it could be the microphones not picking it up? It seems out of kilter with first conf in 18yrs back in sole power.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

The members have seen that he cannot deliver a barn storming speech to uplift and inspire. The MPs will note that failing. Osborne now has an image question which will erode his chances of getting on the two person ballot from MPs.
Q: Will my chances of being re-elected be best with this insipid chap?

kle4

Richard_Nabavi said:

Whatever happened to the idea that major policy announcements should be made in parliament?

More honoured in the breach than the observance for a long long time I'd have thought.

felix

Danny565 said:

felix said:

Danny565 said:

david_herdson said:

kle4 said:

A shame for him that there is something about him that puts people off (a punchable face, I think a thread header once described it), and that might be wrong, but that's the way people are, the person presenting a good idea to us is more important most of the time than the idea itself.

We people are very easy to manipulate like that - to tie into the earlier discussion about unlikable fantasy stories, it reminds me of a series (Prince of Nothing or something like that), where a guy had been trained for ages in the ways of face, thought and deed, to the point he could manipulate anyone to like him, hate him or love him purely by calculated analysis of them through their features, and presenting his own face and voice in just the right way to convince people every time. They came across as sociopathic, but there is an element of truth that we are easily convinced or not by silly things like good presentation.

It was in the text rather than the header:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/11/pax-osbornia-recasting-the-political-landscape-into-the-2030s/#respond

However, what's changed since I wrote that is that Corbyn is now Labour leader. Osborne is still not an ideal frontman but against Corbyn, he'd be the better of the two presentationally, and lightyears ahead on virtually every other political metric.

When YouGov asked who they'd prefer to be PM, Osborne had a 9% lead over Corbyn - which sounds good, until you consider that is less than half of the lead Cameron had over Miliband.

All this desperate quoting of YG polling would be funny if it wasn't so mind crushingly stupid.

??? The YouGov polling was wrong on the headline voting intention, but the "best PM" ratings (and economic competence ratings) proved prescient.

The problem is the cherry-picking to find crumbs of comfort for Corbyn's Labour party while forgetting it's limitations. Think back to some of the bad headlines and polling after Ozzy's 2nd? budget and remind yourself who's in charge now.

kle4

Scott_P said:

@michaelsavage: .@ConHome poll showing Osborne has robust lead among Tory members. Is he peaking too soon? http://t.co/BLsXGRvDQX http://t.co/lcr2LoJFkX

Maybe. He was never really considered as an option until the past year or so it feels like, so there's a bit of the freshness about the idea despite his being in place for a long time, which may be aiding the current bandwagon, and which will dissipate once things hit the rocks again, as to some degree they inevitably will.

Scott_P

MikeSmithson said:

Funny that we haven't heard much from Chelsea/MUFC fans in the past few days

Chelsea have just released a statement of support for Jose, so I have taken some of the 4/1 on him next out generously offered by Corals

TCPoliticalBetting

Plato_Says said:

I missed Javid's speech yesterday - was he any good? He was terrible on SPols.

I've seen about half of the speeches and it's all been rather dull - Fallon is good but in a don't-scare-the-horses way that isn't exciting either.

Gove had a few good bits, but delegate applause seemed a bit flat - it could be the microphones not picking it up? It seems out of kilter with first conf in 18yrs back in sole power.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

The members have seen that he cannot deliver a barn storming speech to uplift and inspire. The MPs will note that failing. Osborne now has an image question which will erode his chances of getting on the two person ballot from MPs.
Q: Will my chances of being re-elected be best with this insipid chap?

I do not rate Javid, his interviews with the media are often unimpressive.

felix

Danny565 said:

Slackbladder said:

Lets put it this way.

Osborne was speaking out to the country in nearly everything he did

Corbyn was speaking out to the conference in nearly everything he did

Which will prove wiser in 2020?

Yeah, I'm not sure "speaking out" to low-paid Labour workers will work if he's simultaneously cutting their wages.

You mean by cutting their taxes and the introduction of the NLW presumably? More cherry-picking......

Richard_Tyndall

I - like I suspect the vast majority of the electorate - didn't actually see Osborne's speech so I can only judge it based on its content and the associated analysis in the media.

That is what will have the most influence on Osborne's prospects for leading the Tory party. How well he speaks will only matter to a tiny number of political anoraks.

TheWhiteRabbit

Scott_P said:

MikeSmithson said:

Funny that we haven't heard much from Chelsea/MUFC fans in the past few days

Chelsea have just released a statement of support for Jose, so I have taken some of the 4/1 on him next out generously offered by Corals

Is that next out or out at all (within x weeks)? Presumably the former

felix

Richard_Tyndall said:

I - like I suspect the vast majority of the electorate - didn't actually see Osborne's speech so I can only judge it based on its content and the associated analysis in the media.

That is what will have the most influence on Osborne's prospects for leading the Tory party. How well he speaks will only matter to a tiny number of political anoraks.

I must add you to Dan Hodges and Hopisen as those who 'get it' with respect to the Ozspeech

Scott_P

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Is that next out or out at all (within x weeks)? Presumably the former

next out

SquareRoot

Plato_Says said:

Nothing better to do this afternoon?


14.30 – 16.00 - Energy & Climate Change, Communities & Local Government and Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change
Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government
Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Are you the original ms. plato? I ask because in your last comment you wrote passed instead of past, something of an error that the original ms plato would be unlikely to have 'made.

Richard_Tyndall

Charles said:

kle4 said:

This business rate change, what are the risks? My local Tory council has always been asking for this type of change so I've never seen it portrayed as being a bad thing, but there is always another side, if not always a convincing one, so I'm curious.

I think the issue was that, in the 80s, certain loony left councils were soaking businesses to the detriment of their local economies, safe in the knowledge that central government would have to pick up the bill (unemployment) or face the political consequences.

That's why it was centralised.

Presumably Osborne thinks the loony left has gone away...

I get the impression that there is far more mobility in all sorts of ways these days so that the idea of being stuck with your local council if they behave like idiots is far less of a threat. Businesses will move and as long as the economic climate is right then overall the effects on unemployment at a national level should be minimal.

TheWhiteRabbit

Richard_Nabavi said:

Whatever happened to the idea that major policy announcements should be made in parliament?

Osborne now gets both Autumn Statement and the budget after all... even less excusable.

Danny565

A typical marginal constituency: Halesowen & Rowley Regis.

As of 2011, 24% of constituents received tax credits (slightly above the national average). That far outstrips the current 7% Tory majority.

Dudley South: 25% on tax credits, 11% Tory majority

Thurrock: 27% on tax credits, 1% Tory majority

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc174/index.html

Anyone who thinks only core Labour voters in safe Lab seats is going to be affected is in for a surprise.

taffys

'Presumably Osborne thinks the loony left has gone away... '

Or he thinks many businesses are far lighter on their feet than they were 30 year ago. If that's the case people who vote ideological left will face the consequences more directly.

Plato_Says

I am indeed me. And I did? Oh la la!

SquareRoot said:

Plato_Says said:

Nothing better to do this afternoon?


14.30 – 16.00 - Energy & Climate Change, Communities & Local Government and Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change
Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government
Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Are you the original ms. plato? I ask because in your last comment you wrote passed instead of past, something of an error that the original ms plato would be unlikely to have 'made.

TCPoliticalBetting

Richard_Tyndall said:

I - like I suspect the vast majority of the electorate - didn't actually see Osborne's speech so I can only judge it based on its content and the associated analysis in the media.

That is what will have the most influence on Osborne's prospects for leading the Tory party. How well he speaks will only matter to a tiny number of political anoraks.

Er No. Osborne will be judged first by the 300+ Conservative MPs and if he gets past them he has to be elected by the Conservative party membership.

TheWhiteRabbit

John McDonnell:

George Osborne spoke for 30 minutes and didn’t mention Redcar once. This is a Tory chancellor who doesn’t live in the real world.

He spoke of slaying dragons more than he spoke of how working people in the north east, who feel abandoned by this Tory government, are seeing their industry and way of life under attack.

He said the Tories are the ‘builders’ but he has sat on the side lines for the last five years and failed to tackle the housing crisis in this country – as a result housebuilding is at its lowest level in peacetime since the 1920s.

It was very disappointing that the chancellor also had nothing to say to those people living in the real world who are seeing their tax credits cut by £1,300 a year, and who are struggling to pay sky high rents or are struggling to find enough work to get to the end of each month.

Instead, he spoke to the few, those millionaires sitting in the hall who will benefit from an inheritance tax cut he is giving them, and to those bankers who were also sat alongside them in the hall who’ll benefit from income and corporation tax cuts.

Angela Eagle and I are in Redcar today meeting people who will be looking at that speech and won’t be fooled by Osborne’s smoke and mirrors. They want substantive answers in the here and now and sadly George Osborne failed to offer them any today.

What occured to me is that one would nromally expect the politicians to make the moderate rejection and leave the above vitriol for someone else - a convenient arrangement. Yet it is difficult to imagine anyone going for a harder line than the shadow chancellor.

TOPPING

watford30 said:

GeoffM said:

Scott_P said:

@OwenJones84: Just had "Tory scumbag" yelled at me as I walked into Tory conference. Novel! The look on their faces when I turned around

I find it very unlikely that he was recognised so easily.
I doubt 1 PBer in 20 could pick him out of a police line-up.
Ego is a dangerous thing for a C-list politician to have.

'C-list politician'? He's a Lefty journalist.

Exactly. The look on their faces? "_Adolescent_ Tory scumbag."

Plato_Says

AIUI, councils can cut rates, but not raise them above 2% - and that's only for infrastructure etc. So soaking businesses as they once did isn't possible.

There's a little more detail here http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/05/george-osborne-announces-cut-price-lloyds-bank-share-sale-politics-live#block-56126ca7e4b0aeee4e6200d8

Richard_Tyndall said:

Charles said:

kle4 said:

This business rate change, what are the risks? My local Tory council has always been asking for this type of change so I've never seen it portrayed as being a bad thing, but there is always another side, if not always a convincing one, so I'm curious.

I think the issue was that, in the 80s, certain loony left councils were soaking businesses to the detriment of their local economies, safe in the knowledge that central government would have to pick up the bill (unemployment) or face the political consequences.

That's why it was centralised.

Presumably Osborne thinks the loony left has gone away...

I get the impression that there is far more mobility in all sorts of ways these days so that the idea of being stuck with your local council if they behave like idiots is far less of a threat. Businesses will move and as long as the economic climate is right then overall the effects on unemployment at a national level should be minimal.

SquareRoot

Danny565 said:

A typical marginal constituency: Halesowen & Rowley Regis.

As of 2011, 24% of constituents received tax credits (slightly above the national average). That far outstrips the current 7% Tory majority.

Dudley South: 25% on tax credits, 11% Tory majority

Thurrock: 27% on tax credits, 1% Tory majority

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc174/index.html

Anyone who thinks only core Labour voters in safe Lab seats is going to be affected is in for a surprise.

Is the amount of tax credit being paid reduced as well as restricted to two children?

TCPoliticalBetting

taffys said:

'Presumably Osborne thinks the loony left has gone away... '

Or he thinks many businesses are far lighter on their feet than they were 30 year ago. If that's the case people who vote ideological left will face the consequences more directly.

Details Javid gave were that
1. Increases limited to 2.5% and some kind of approval mechanism (maybe above that).
2. Councils only get the increase in Business rate revenue (from their present allocation) not all of it.

Richard_Tyndall

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I - like I suspect the vast majority of the electorate - didn't actually see Osborne's speech so I can only judge it based on its content and the associated analysis in the media.

That is what will have the most influence on Osborne's prospects for leading the Tory party. How well he speaks will only matter to a tiny number of political anoraks.

Er No. Osborne will be judged first by the 300+ Conservative MPs and if he gets past them he has to be elected by the Conservative party membership.

And if they have any sense they will judge him on what he says not how he says it. Because that is what will interest the electorate and give those 300 MPs the best chance of keeping their seats.

Cyclefree

Oratory can be overrated. Kinnock was a great orator but a fat lot of good it did him.

Honestly, can anyone remember a single word or memorable phrase any politician has said in one of these speeches?

Osborne may not be a good speech maker but by comparison with people like his rivals within the party he is streets ahead. Boris is a fantastic speaker but that's all he is these days. Osborne is doing stuff. Boris is just commenting on it.

oxfordsimon

Danny565 said:

A typical marginal constituency: Halesowen & Rowley Regis.

As of 2011, 24% of constituents received tax credits (slightly above the national average). That far outstrips the current 7% Tory majority.

Dudley South: 25% on tax credits, 11% Tory majority

Thurrock: 27% on tax credits, 1% Tory majority

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc174/index.html

Anyone who thinks only core Labour voters in safe Lab seats is going to be affected is in for a surprise.

Those figures don't show anything - other than tax credits have become a bloated drain on our national resources. They are not the right way of helping people.

isam

Scott_P said:

MikeSmithson said:

Funny that we haven't heard much from Chelsea/MUFC fans in the past few days

Chelsea have just released a statement of support for Jose, so I have taken some of the 4/1 on him next out generously offered by Corals

Wengers strategic genius leaving out Cech meant three points towards the more realistic goal of premier league glory yesterday

God I feel like a PB Tory!

DecrepitJohnL

Richard_Nabavi said:

Whatever happened to the idea that major policy announcements should be made in parliament?

Or even by the relevant Secretary of State at conference. It will be interesting to see if the departmental speakers this afternoon have been left room to add gilt to Osborne's gingerbread.