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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes poll finds Corbyn with near identical ratings as Osborne
After the poor first week Corbyn has endured, he and Labour will be delighted with the headline voting intention that sees Labour up 1% and not down though the Tories are up 2% as well (though these are the epitome of margin of error changes.) in the ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.
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Big news from Spain.
The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:
http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html
The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.
If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.
What happens to Catalonia as a result of UDI will show what a stupid idea it is. But the whole of Spain will suffer and Europe may well do too. This is going to paralyse the continent's fourth largest economy for months and years to come.
Who are these people?
@ReggieCide It's typo (obviously) should have said dyed. Also don't get your 'royalty' comment.
As for the ComRes poll re right-wing parties, it'd be better to get an overall average of all the polls, or wait until the 2016 May Elections. In any case it would probably be unwise to assume that all of those voters have the same outlook to Tories online. Some of those voters will be floating voters, many of whom are moderates with some socially liberal views. Others (most likely those who veer towards UKIP) will be socially conservative, but have concerns on economic inequality, and are likely to be dissatisfied with the way the system is working for them. This is in contrast to the general theories on here about how content the electorate are overall with things.
FPT: I certainly think down the line many people will find out a very bad reality in regard to Conservative polices. However, in order to capitalise on this Labour need an electable leader, a membership and activist base willingly to face reality (and be 90s style desparate to win a GE) as well as a reduction in the influence of Unite and McCluskey.
*Of course I should say to be a successful PM if you're facing a decent opposition, which of course is no cert right now.
Plus I'm absolutely sated by this stint as Guest Editor.
It has been the most exciting time and I'm utterly spent.
I never want to write another thread for at least three months.
I was so tense. They were behind 32-29 in added on time, twice they were awarded penalties, rather than go for the tie they went for the victory.
That was brilliant.
Rugby is a sport where you get far fewer shocks, so one like that is just extraordinary.
But as Brown found out, if you're the frontman it's not enough to just be competent, people need to like you as a person. His favourable ratings, and his ratings when people are asked if they want him to be PM, have always been dire.
I jest, good job as always!
You did good, enjoy your well-earned sabbatical.
''Who says the living wage is putting low skilled workers up beyond the value for their employers? It's possible the market wage is 20% below the living wage, but the value to employers is 20% higher than the living wage. We might lose a tiny amount of cockle picking-like work, but it'll be small fry in the scheme of things.''
What you consider 'small fry' to the people involved could be a lively-hood, and first step on the ladder, the beginning of a working life and the dignity of providing for oneself and your family!!!
For a 17 year, let down by one of many appalling schools, for the prisoner who as come to the end of a long period of incrassation but wants to go strate, for the single mother who don't what to completely leave the work force, but can only work and limited times. For all these people the opportunities will only be there if you let them have the freedom to price them selves in to the market.
The lore Supply and demand are as much a Lore of Gravity, you can pass a Vote to cancel it in the HoC but you still cant jump out of plane at 20,000 feet without bad things happening.
Yes there will be times where someone is being paid 20% less than the values they are crating, But in a FREE market, that gives somebody else the opportunity to set up a competitor, doing exactly the same but with a slightly slimmer profit margin. and poach the man on slightly higher wage, maybe only 15%, and then the next only 10% below, and so on until eventually he is being paid 99.99% of the vale he is crating. And yes this will take time, but in that time he is being paid, gaining skills, and contributing to the overall economy. Not siting at home unemployed wasting his life, waiting for the socialist Utopia that never arrives. (for example look at Veneswala)
Secondly, other Catalan parties - Popular Unity Candidacy or Catalonia Yes We Can - are much more ambivalent about independence or greater powers for Catalonia, and neither believe in independence without a referendum.
Thirdly, imagine if the SNP got 40% in Scotland (roughly the equivalent position of JpS), and declared a UDI despite opinion polls showing a majority of people against it.
I know you believe that the pro Spanish majority would remain utterly silent. I don't believe that is so. I think UDI, which would involve leaving the EU and repudiating Spanish debt, would be a much more risky and dangerous prospect that Scottish independence. Support for a UDI is less than 30% for that reason. Therefore, I suspect that JpS, if they achieve a majority (and I suspect they'll come just short), will be much more likely to compromise than their pre election bombast.
My understanding from Spain is that the Spanish government has a "kick the can down the road" plan, that involves a 2016-2019 constitutional convention, that would be ratified in a 2020 nationwide poll, and would involve both greater powers for Catalonia, and the possibility of a legitimate referendum in 2021 on Catalonian independence.
I suspect that would be enough to make quite a lot of Catalan independence supporters say "well, it's only a few years to wait, and it means we'd leave Spain in an organised and legitimate manner..."
We don't know how the referendum will play out and what role he will play in it, but I can see many scenarios that could see him, already popular with Tory grass roots, becoming even more of a hero to many.
I have never placed a political bet, (or any for that mater) with a bookmaker, perhaps someone on here could tell me, what odds I could get for him?
If the occupying power refuses, they are entitled to declare their independence under pretty much all international treaties, most of which the occupying power are signed up to.
This is tremendous news for democracy.
The poll showed that, while enthusiasm for Corbyn and interest in his election as leader may have had a small positive effect on Labour’s ratings, there has been no huge bounce.
The Tories remain well ahead on 37%, with Labour on 32%, Ukip on 14% and the Liberal Democrats, who are gathering this weekend in Bournemouth for the first time since their disastrous general election result, on 6%.
The figures are similar to the final share of the vote in May’s general election when the Tories secured 36.9%, Labour 30.4%, Ukip 12.6% and the Lib Dems 7.9%.
Some encouragement for Labour can be found, however, by comparing today’s poll with a post-general election poll conducted by Opinium at the beginning of June – well before Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign to be leader had come to the notice of the public. This put the Tories on 39%, Labour on 30%, Ukip on 12% and the Lib Dems on 7%.
Since then, therefore, Labour has cut the Tory lead from 9pts to 5pts.
http://bit.ly/1F8vtYN
I think Javid is in a strong position but too early to tell.
Session: 2003-04
Date tabled: 21.05.2004
Primary sponsor: Banks, Tony
That this House is appalled, but barely surprised, at the revelations in M15 files regarding the bizarre and inhumane proposals to use pigeons as flying bombs; recognises the important and live-saving role of carrier pigeons in two world wars and wonders at the lack of gratitude towards these gentle creatures; and believes that humans represent the most obscene, perverted, cruel, uncivilised and lethal species ever to inhabit the planet and looks forward to the day when the inevitable asteroid slams into the earth and wipes them out thus giving nature the opportunity to start again.
Signatories:
Banks, Tony
Corbyn, Jeremy
McDonnell, John
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/645316343881932800
Castille and France are going to look incredibly stupid over this while the Catalans will find plenty of friends to help them out.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.105756340
Can't see the appeal myself.
I agree that a Basque level of self-government would do most Catalans fine, but is PP - Spanish nationalist to its core - going to back down and agree that? I doubt it. The best hope is that the latest poll is wrong and that the independence bloc - Junts + CUP - don't get a majority. If they do, the promises made will make a climbdown politically impossible. I could ser Convergencia maybe trying, but ERC will not - they are fundamentalists and would take to the streets. They would do the same were pro-Spanish groups to protest the result. A change in government in Madrid in December, or even a PP/Ciudadanos coalition, would also help.
But whatever happens the next few months and even years are going to be awful in Catalonia.
It has strong parallels with the United Kingdom.
The main change has been the utter destruction of the Middle Ground/Federalist supporters who are now dead in the water and are never likely to recover (which is also why the more Federalist parties have suffered at the ballot box).
A Federal Spanish State would have been both preferable and better for most people in Spain and possibly even Catalonia but the Castillians believe Spain is theirs and they should always have the final word.
Now they will pay the price.
Colonialism fails and is diluted. The Castillian Empire is not long for this world. It failed to do what France did and completely subjugate the occupied territories. The United Kingdom faces the same fate.
Eventually coherent nations re-assert themselves. It will happen in Spain and will happen in Britain. At some point you will need to accept this.
On top of that, if the United Kingdom had held a plebiscite in 1978 that all parts of it were unalienable and permanent parts of a Unitary State, it would likely have got 75% of the vote in Scotland back then.
Times change. That is why democracies hold elections on a regular basis.
You really have nothing remotely intetesting to say about this as you have no idea about what is going on.
The people of Catalonia are deciding to throw off the shackles of the Castillian Empire and form a nation state where they control what happens. It's called democracy.
Your chief concern - that some businesses might lost money and investments should be pulled - are not democracy.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPSqJlGWsAAp9j8.jpg
Did you notices what the Conservative % was in Scotland? admittedly out of a sample of only 200.
Scotland WAS ethnically cleansed.
Scotland WAS culturally cleansed (ever heard of the term North Britain).
The fact that the first was reasonably unsuccessful and the latter almost totally unsuccessful does not mean these things did not happen. Being able to avoid being murdered and culturally destroyed does not ameliorate views of the history.
Since it became clear he was about to become Labours new leader, SLAB have continued to slide.