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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollster that was first to pick up the scale of the SNP surge now has and IndyRef YES with 9% lead
Ipsos MORI Scotland for STV IndyRef finding
YES 53%
NO 44%
DK 3% pic.twitter.com/LgGoYE5ZQG
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Blimey.
either that or the Corbyn effect.
Douglas Carswell refuses to deny he has voted for Jeremy Corbyn
Ukip's only MP has been reported by a Labour researcher for signing up to vote in the Labour Leadeship election
I guess that's why Corbyn is in the lead. who becomes leader doesn't matter because they are all crap, some less crap than others, but crap nevertheless.
Because the SNP overplayed their hand and gave the Tories a majority in Westminster.
Five years is ample time for the gold-leaf to flake off the SNP - to reveal the base metal beneath...
Even if it was in our gift, I doubt it would reduce the queue at Calais by more the a couple of percent. The vast majority of people concerned are economic migrants, they want to be in the land of flat screen TVs, not sitting in some tent in the middle east. Having taken the step of leaving their country they will be looking for somewhere to set up their family and do the best they can, all completely understandable, but if we accept that proposition then most of the third world will move here soon after.
Before the conflict began the population was roughly 23 million. So roughly one third of the total population have been displaced by the conflict and one fifth of the population have fled and are now refugees.
Most of the refugees have sought sanctuary in neighbouring countries: Greece, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt. Turkey has accepted over 1.7 million refugees. Lebanon has accepted over 667k refugees (about a seventh of its total population).
This is a huge, huge humanitarian disaster.
I get that there are real and pressing needs to do with immigration (both legal and illegal) and Europe, I really do. But can we please. please, please keep the discussion of refugees fleeing a bloody conflict at least civil and try not to conflate genuine refugees with the wider problem of economic migrants.
It's merely a flesh wound
EDIT: it looks from the tables that they aren't. Curious.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-opinion-monitor-august-2015-tables.pdf
As Nicola once said...
Trouble is, that is exactly what our authorities do. The evidence is they are completely incapable of distinguishing one type of migrant from another. It is all the same to them.
What you are in effect saying is 'can other British people please put up with a total mixed bag of people to assuage my conscience'.
Ipsos MORI does not do any form of past vote weighting and never has done.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13641036.Journalist_s_Twitter_account_suspended_after_posting_links_to_SNP_stories/?ref=mr&lp=1
The atmosphere was fine during the indyref.
The atmosphere is still ok, but I'm not ok with the way the government is going.
I was a yesser, but am now a no.
I'm saying that we should tackle the Syrian refugee crisis for what it is, not lump it together with a completely separate immigration debate.
On the narrower question, there isn't the slightest chance in the current political climate that the British population would be up for accepted even a hundred thousand refugees never mind several hundred thousand. If politicians wanted to be able to extend this sort of facility, and I agree it would be good to be able to, they should not have negligently inflamed the situation so that the population is total pig sick of the whole issue and approaching mutinous.
The population would however I believe be accepting of, and probably even generous with their financial assistance in helping those people nearer to their place of origin. They also would be I suspect greatly in favour of putting massive political pressure of nearby country with plenty of space and money such as Saudi to exercise the charitable duty expected of Muslims.
Most refugees don't want to leave their country, they have no choice. But they would all (ok maybe not ALL but certainly most), choose to return if it were safe to do so.
I agree. If the 10,000 a month we were taking were genuine refugees, genuinely seeking refuge and fully intending to return when peace came back, I would be right with you.
Our immigration system cannot deliver this, however. nor anything remotely close to it. Nor anything within a couple of thousand light years of it.
Go and help them in a peaceable nearby country, absolutely, and exactly what our aid budget should be for, not paying for the space programs of prosperous countries.
It has to be the Holy Grail
"Brave, brave Sir Andy.
When danger reared its ugly head,
he bravely turned his tail and fled."
Although by the sound of the back-pedalling, you could include Sir Chuka as well.
It's truly a clusterfuck, even more so than Iraq or Aghanistan.
It is worth a look.
Why was she trying to get to Sweden?
The current response to the disaster is woeful across the board.
If all member states of the UN could agree on tackling the crisis, then surely it would look something a bit like this:
Set up processing centres for refugees in neighbouring countries/safe havens: Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon etc.
Process the refugees quickly, not leave them in sprawling disease ridden camps for months/years.
All member states to accept a proportion of the total (The UK said it would accept 500; that is pitiful and embarrassing)
As part of the resettlement, factors such as family ties could be taken into account (so that the girl from the BBC report could well end up in Sweden).
But this is just my rough idea for handling it, I'm sure there are problems with it and many other possible solutions.
--
None of the possible solutions to the growing humanitarian crisis, none, include treating refugees like economic migrants in the broader EU/Schengen/Open Borders debate.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3622/SNP-increase-lead-in-the-run-up-to-2016-Holyrood-election.aspx
Spoiler: I say Andy Burnham is so crap he has to be the bastard love child of Ed Miliband and Hannibal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_League
(I'll get me coat!)
Ditto those that leave Iraq, Jordan (when it becomes engulfed in this) and the Lebanon (ditto). Where does a policy of asylum stop? Are we to invite all those from Somalia and Eritrea here as well?
I don't know what the answer is. I feel desperately sorry for those who lives are being wreaked by lunatics and are living in fear. But the world cannot live here.
Pure propaganda by The Independent, the same newspaper that has been complaining about a chronic shortage of homes for those in Britain, but has no hesitation in campaigning for the entry of hundreds of thousands more.
Whoever would have thought it? Maybe those of us who understand that support for the SNP has next to nothing to do with claiming to be left wing and a lot to do with waving the Saltire in the face of the Westminster elite.
Still, it's another Corbynite crutch kicked away, just a little bit too late.
Some of the comments below the thread roundly condemn the Indie, others are supportive. Its the debate that's interesting, because as you say the pictures themselves are pretty awful.
If the system were set up as I postulated below, then the chaotic scenes at Calais would be separated from this debate (indeed how may of the illegals there are from Syria - genuine Q, I don't know), and they would not be economic migrants, simply refugees hosted across the UN.
If they then chose to move about, then yes they could be considered economic migrants. But while we still have the nonsense response as now, then they should not.
BTW. The UK already gives almost TWICE in aid what the rest of the EU put together gives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Bengali_refugees
Our Scottish National friends who were terribly interested in the real world the other day have been a bit quiet.
Brent crude back below $50
http://www.oil-price.net/
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/31/oil-may-test-30-again-this-year-trader.html
FPT: Mr. T, any Viking ruins on Greenland?
That poll must tempt the SNP.
There are 193 member states in the UN, and they should all take a proportion.
These same people pass through multiple countries on the way here and by *rescuing* them in the Med just encourages even more to chance their arm in dangerous trips/aided by people traffickers.
Australia had the right idea.