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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab betting but with a little bit more interest in Cooper
The LAB leadership Betting has been pretty stable since the YouGov poll last month that had Corbyn on 55% on first preferences. Inevitably he’s become the overwhelming favourite as can be seen by the chart.
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Still over a week of voting, christ.
If Jeremy Corbyn wins on 12th September, the purges, disappearances and torture of the dissident and renegade Blairites, crypto-Blairites, neo-Blairites, crypto-Tories and quasi-Tories will begin at full speed on 13th September.
Much more important, of course, is what happens on the evening of Wednesday 9th September (if God wills). By my reckoning, actuarially, Her Majesty has a 99.7% probability of reaching that date alive and breaking the record. That is based on age, without even taking into account her excellent health.
Unless the polling is designed to make the polling of the GE look somewhat better in retrospect it is difficult to see this making much difference for Jezzbolah. The fact that the Tories are much more openly targeting him, as yesterday's thread pointed out, indicates that they think he has it in the bag.
From the competent and at least vaguely credible opposition point of view I still think that Cooper was the correct option but it would be hard for even her keenest supporters to argue that she has enhanced her case during this campaign. Not quite the ever evolving car crash that is Burnham but way too dull and safe to catch fire.
There is no doubt in my mind that Osborne in particular will see this as an opportunity to dominate the centre ground in the same way as Blair did while the Tories were off on one. This is not good news for Lib Dems hoping to regain some of those 27 seats lost to the Tories at the next election. They can only hope that the next Tory leadership campaign is even half as self indulgent as the Labour one has been. I think that is unlikely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
Three 'No' campaigns, one led by Farage, with three different contradictory messages, arguing amongst themselves as well as with 'Yes'.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
That should bugger up any chance of a coherent campaign to get out. Well done Nigel. Brussel's useful idiot.
The bigger problem for a campaign is when they don't have any answers to a question (e.g. Scottish Yes and the currency); not when they have too many.
As a major party completely committed to an Out vote they should in theory be able to provide some organisational heft but after the GE that looks a fairly ridiculous proposition with even supporters admitting that many of their volunteers were at least as great a hindrance as a help.
I am still very much undecided and waiting to see what Cameron can get in the form of protection from EZ dominance going forward. That, for me, is the key issue. No one would ever seriously pretend that the EU was democratic but I ultimately care less about that than the ability of our leadership to protect our national interest. We really don't have that at the moment because of the increasing trend of the EZ to vote as a bloc and the extent of QMV. We have seen that on financial regulation and the appointment of that chocolate fireguard as President.
If Cameron can agree a "double majority" of EZ and non-EZ members for QMV I think I would vote for in. Structure is much more important than individual issues because the EU will continue to evolve as it is buffeted by events and challenges.
I fear that the focus will be on restrictions on benefit entitlements for EU citizens coming here or some other such trivia which ultimately will not make much difference (since so many EU citizens come directly to a job anyway). We need to change the way the game is played or we need to stop playing.
Perhaps he was asleep when there were lectures on government failure and the limits to the role of the state.
Why blunder in with a policy like this, when Labour cuts its throat, wrists, and stomach.
Which would be good, except for the fact that Farage is possibly the most Marmite politician - people either love him dearly, or dislike him intensely. Although he might soon be overtaken in these stakes by Corbyn. He will not win over many undecided voters.
Your point about having 'answers' is a good one: the problem with having several campaigns is that the 'answers' will often be contradictory. 'No' needs a united voice, with people (r even sub-campaigns) concentrating on different but consistent and agreed messages.
On another point, the 'No' side need positive voices. Farage is all about negativity.
I know some will disagree, but if No want to win, then Farage needs to be shut in a room on his own for the next couple of years.
The two campaigns will need to move on from simply adding or subtracting the word 'necessary' from the sentence "the EU is a necessary evil".
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Tom and Mr. Stirling.
Mr. Jessop, I've maintained In will win easily. This only makes me more confident of that view.
On-topic: there's still an air of 'surely this can't happen' around electing the likes of Corbyn to the leadership. I can't imagine the Falklands comments helped him but the majority will have voted by then.
The two campaigns will need to move on from simply adding or subtracting the word 'necessary' from the sentence "the EU is a necessary evil".
I'm not sure that there isn't a love for the EU amongst many. Some friends of mine are very pro-EU, and one in particular is exceptionally so: she's almost an inverse-Farage, in that every time she opens her mouth on the topic she tends to do more harm than good!
Well if 25% do not vote (75% turnout) then it actually means that only 15% are yet to vote.
Is thatb likely to happen this time, I wonder!
According to the opinion polls, thats a very tiny share of the electorate.
New Hillary Clinton emails reveal David Miliband's heartache at leadership loss
Emails from former US secretary of state’s private server shows backing for Miliband as foreign secretary over ‘disingenuous’ Hague and ‘mad’ Mandelson
http://bit.ly/1KZwwGV
Looks like some red faces in the Clintons household.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/hillary-clinton/11835908/Close-aide-warned-Hillary-Clinton-that-David-Cameron-would-be-no-partner-to-US.html
Not that they are wrong, of course!
UKIP Politician Organises Sainsbury’s Boycott But Is Completely Wrong
http://bzfd.it/1N6su5I
If it there is a late swing etc.
This weekend is the the first anniversary of that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead.
Just saying.
Yes have lost me. To persuade me back - they'll need to find more than scare stories. In many respects it is more the 'Yes' campaign that need some positivity. There isn't. in my view, a groundswell of love for the EU even among those voting yes, I think it is much more a pragmatic vote, fear over loss of jobs, better the devil you know and so on.
The two campaigns will need to move on from simply adding or subtracting the word 'necessary' from the sentence "the EU is a necessary evil".
No *could* mean an EEA arrangement or a bilateral free-trade arrangement or any number of other options but asking what happens after UK exit is a bit like asking what happens after a Scottish Yes. Some questions - like the currency and EU membership - were clearly fair game as they were a direct consequence of independence and had huge uncertainties over them; others, on the other hand, were simply matters of government policy that could be decided at Holyrood now, never mind after independence and really should have had little to do with the debate. Though I suspect will have no shortage of similar distractions in the EuroRef too.
Although I may have misremembered,
In places like Basildon and Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Labour is in danger of becoming irrelevant.
Altogether, it shows why any idea that Ukip posed no threat to Labour or that they were a greater problem for the Conservatives was complacent and misguided. Nigel Farage has not only made good on his promise to park Ukip's tanks on Labour's lawn - he has driven them through the front door and crashed them into our living room.'
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/8067220
"At the end of next week, Corbyn will win the Labour leadership election"
(his latest blog)
David Miliband has won, says Dan Hodges.
http://bit.ly/1NK6bmd
EDIT Ms Sylvester has also stated that the membership has changed totally since it elected EdM - only 10% remain from GE2010. That's feels a bit OTT to me - but if accurate, that's a complete takeover.
Considering how long and how many people have been baying at the moon of the EU, the lack of preparation on the No side shown so far seems extraordinary.
Still, we'll see how the campaign goes. Still expect In to win with ease.
"Nigel Farage has not only made good on his promise to park Ukip's tanks on Labour's lawn - he has driven them through the front door and crashed them into our living room.'"
...So a shame to hear him soiling himself on radio 4 this morning. I thought Cameron's attitude towards those escaping the turmoil of the Middle East was pretty shocking so I shouldn't be surprised that farage has trumped him decisively.
The Daily Mail is stil castigated in some quarters for things they said about Jewish refugees in the late 30's so it's surprising that today's political leaders seem so careless about how history will judge them
My working theory is that the EU is a rallying cry of right wing opposition politics. Now that the right has finally won power, the EU no longer has that purpose and the campaign has lost energy and urgency.
The problem is that lots say "The EU is bad because X, Y and Z", which is fine, but then don't seem to have a coherent alternative. That may or may not be a fair reflection of reality, but I think that's how it comes across, which leads those who might switch to perhaps think it's better the devil you know.
It's as bad as the SNP not having a considered currency position.
Of course not all of the selectorate will vote: for instance turnout was about 56% in the recent Lib Dem leadership election and about 66% in the 2005 Tory leadership election. And those were all-members; makes one wonder why people would bother being members if they couldn't be bothered to vote in a leadership election.
There are quite a lot of people who are pro EU. It is why Yes is leading in the polls. Of course there is some grumbling too - after all which area of government is not grumbled about?
BOOers can be very shrill to the point of harming their own campaign, and a fair number of people will keep quiet, then vote to annoy the Farages of this world. As the Nats found out last year being noisy is not the same as winning a majority.
On betfair leaving is trading at 4.8; good value if you really think that No can win...
As for the supposed coup, you'd think a chief whip (even a presumably outgoing one) should know, but the MPs who I know are in "ruthless pragmatism" mood. If Corbyn proves reasonably successful, fine. If he doesn't, act. Almost nobody wants instant rebellion against the vote of the membership, whatever it is.
The No campaign will be associated with rapracious expoloitative employers slavering over the possibility of shedding employment protections. Not a good look.
Still, I don't believe it's true. I think it is expectations playing so they can then turn around and say "look how much more we achieved than expected!"
I mainly think this because if Cameron has given up even negotiating such a small issue then the renegotiation is doomed. If this isn't possible, what else can he get? A couple years delay for immigrant benefits (excluding healthcare) and a non-binding piece of paper saying something meaningless about ever closer union?
strikes me that's more UKIP party disadvantage ie nobody wants to work with Farage.
Dan Hanan has written a few pieces on how limp wristed the 'renogotition strategy' is.
http://www.vox.com/2015/8/29/9225115/bush-aides-leave-campaign