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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For those CON supporters fearful that Mr. Corbyn might not be all good news read today’s FT column by Janan Ganesh
The FT’s insightful political commentator, Janan Ganesh is on top form this morning with his assessment of what the likely Corbyn LAB leadership victory will do to the main party battle. In one of the best written pieces I’ve seen in along time Ganesh demolishes the notion that somehow Mr. Corbyn could present problems for the blues.
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And some real numbers about Plannning Permission at the end of the last thread.
My point is not that this is too much or too little, just that it exists and is a significant and complex element and that changing Planning Policy is not something columnists can do by shooting from the hip.
This is in a location where a new build house costs from say 80k for a 2 bed starter home or flat to £225k or so for a 4 bed detached with double garage.
I have just taken a project for about 130 houses through the "outline" stage of planning permission. Outline establishes the right to build houses on that piece of 10 acres of land, and in our case finalises the access road. Reports done range from Bat and Tree Surveys to Preliminary Drainage design (*) and Traffic Surveys and Ground Conditions drilling using 6m deep holes monitored for a month. About a dozen reports and consultants in all, and this process has taken 2 years so far (that is quick). The Council fee to process it was a non-returnable £20k-ish, which we do not get back if refused.
(*) You cannot have more runoff than came off the existing field, so that means a 2000sqm balancing pond and computer controlled outlet.
Detailed Stage will include the likes of actual layout of houses, designs, final drainage layout, road spec, type of bricks and tiles etc.
In this case it is 10% open space an 20% affordable (a low figure - 8 miles away it would be 35%).
The elements of our Planning Gain contribution include:
Funding 35 school places at Primary and Secondary School.
Green Travel Plan.
Open Space as Discussed.
20% Affordable Houses, according to local assessed need.
£250k contribution for refurb of local town centre.
200m of cycle track.
Lots of stuff like bat boxes and bird boxes, which cost more buggeration and time than money.
The direct cost will be something like a million with another million or two for loss of profit on the Affordable Houses / undeveloped space and opportunity cost.
To get detailed and complete the build will take perhaps another 5-6 years - which is why politicians saying they will build an extra 50k houses a year from scratch in 2 or 3 years is balls. They may pull some forward, but it will leave a hole in 5 years, and it is a huge reform to reduce the time of the process - requiring taking no the Nimby problem and real planning reform.
1. Replace Corbyn with a true centrist leader, who is identified as such - probably a new face.
2. Disengage the party once and for all from the over-bearing influence of the trade unions and ...
3. Probably change its name.
fpt
I see COM Res for the Mail has Con 42% to Lab 28% and suggests just 22% would back Labour under Cornyn. Who'd have guessed Twitter and Facebook and the street campaigns could be getting it so wrong?
and QED.
Perhaps Shadsy would provide a market on, say, the LibDems overtaking Labour by 31 Dec. 2016 in a national GE VI poll, undertaken by one of the major firms. I might just be tempted to part with a tenner in return for double digit odds against such an eventuality.
Much too early to say but a strong opposition will form because the Tories are still so unappealing. Someone said to me last night that it was certain David Miliband would return in 2017 and form a new centrist grouping. I have great doubts that the family name isn't too tarnished for that.
The problem is getting a cohesive opposition. A bit left, a bit centre a bit right is a split opposition offering electoral bliss to the Tories.
I doubt a "strong opposition" will form before the end of the Parliament after next, if then. The racist Right (thank God) has no idea how, and perhaps no desire to win elections whilst Social Democrats need both a generation of Tory government and a charismatic leader to gain office - and after Blair, can they ever trust charisma again? The Liberal Democrats may win a few more seats in the West Country. tops - they may, they may not.
The Tories can go into the 2020 election pledging to abolish health care free at the point of use and still win nearly 500 seats (out of 600). Not only Labour, but multi-party democracy is an idea whose time has gone. Nowadays we are all either Tories - or traitors.
Another Corbyntastic day dawns ....
Happy days ....
Whilst I don't agree that Corbyn will automatically fail, the longer the infighting and brainless worship of him continues the harder it will be for Labour to find a way back to the light.
"I wholly agree with your first paragraph, Roger. It is not so much JC but his Trotskyist supporters whom Middle England fears, loathes and despises. Labour will only win seats next time where there is a substantial non-white vote - and there are fewer than 100 of those.
I doubt a "strong opposition" will form before the end of the Parliament after next, if then. The racist Right (thank God) has no idea how, and perhaps no desire to win elections whilst Social Democrats need both a generation of Tory government and a charismatic leader to gain office - and after Blair, can they ever trust charisma again? The Liberal Democrats may win a few more seats in the West Country. tops - they may, they may not.
The Tories can go into the 2020 election pledging to abolish health care free at the point of use and still win nearly 500 seats (out of 600). Not only Labour, but multi-party democracy is an idea whose time has gone. Nowadays we are all either Tories - or traitors.
"
Bleak indeed! The first Corbyn by election will be the moment. If your nightmare scenario is anywhere near correct something dramatic will have to happen. The 60% anti Tories are going to find an outlet somewhere though I haven't the faintst idea where.
The problem for Labour is that now whoever emerges as leader will have to spend at least as much time looking behind them as facing the enemy and essentially if you can't trust your own side you can't beat the other.
It's Labour that's becoming exclusive: if you're not a Corbynista then you're a traitor. Or a Tory.
"People like Ganesh are naïve.How Corbyn is perceived as labour leader will be influenced by how he is portrayed in the tv media.The TV media and the education system have a soft spot for authentic left win figures and a knee jerk dislike. of tories.Corbyn and his group will learn quickly how to play to that bias"
I hovvered around similar thoughts for a while but after several appearances by Diane Abbott and others in the Corbyn clique and i realized I'd been dreaming. The media is going to overflow with Corbyn followers every bit as unattractive as the least attractive Tories-because that's all there are-and the country are going to have a collective vomit.
Sorry.. will disengage thousand-year-PB-Tory-reich mode shortly...
What would Spitting Image do to this shower of wanabee Labour leaders? The sentiments of the song remain the same -we're piss poor, piss poor etc. The most appalling opposition you've ever seen...
It just beggars belief, that Labour are trying to self destruct in this way.
Change is going to require something better than the Tories offer. Whilst ever parties keep electing the Corbyn's and the Farron's of this world, and so long as the Tories do indeed rule for the One Nation and don't press the big red button marked A REALLY DUMB THING TO DO, it is hard to see the electorate voting for change. Now, more than ever, people will be asking "Labour - why would you take the risk?"
how's that going in Scotland ?
He then flew into a hissy fit.
The reason it's a delusion is that being collectively anti one thing does not make that group collectively pro something else. You might just as well say that there's an anti Labour majority. Likewise, given that the Lib Dems entered coalition with the Tories, counting them entirely as centre-left is simply wrong. Yet the delusion endures.
Bleak indeed! The first Corbyn by election will be the moment. If your nightmare scenario is anywhere near correct something dramatic will have to happen. The 60% anti Tories are going to find an outlet somewhere though I haven't the faintst idea where.
In England, where 82% of seats and 84% of voters live, over 55% are anti Left-wing parties.
And there are still a further 8%+ to squeeze of, broadly centrist, Lib-Dem voters too.
Kruschev came second. Nixon was next to last.
Bleak indeed! The first Corbyn by election will be the moment. If your nightmare scenario is anywhere near correct something dramatic will have to happen. The 60% anti Tories are going to find an outlet somewhere though I haven't the faintst idea where.
Where does that 60% come from? There was a poll recently that had the proportion of people saying they'd never vote Tory in the low thirties - and Labour pretty much the same.
Janesh piece - Sums up Labour very well.
Roger's point on "Corbyn will be a trainwreck for Labour and one they aren't easily if ever going to recover from."
They have two weeks to save their party. Thank goodness they will not act.
Are people becoming less likely to vote for the same party all their lives?
Cons: 371; LAB: 182; LD:9; UKIP:0: SNP: 55; PC:4
Cons gains come mainly from Midlands, London, Lancs and Wales.
It's just that the housing problems need to be seen together, rather than people just picking up on the problem that they're most annoyed about.
I agree that electing a socialist, NATO-hating, republican friend of Hamas/Hezbollah may not necessarily aid Labour's electoral prospects.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/db5a37ae-4aa8-11e5-b558-8a9722977189.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3jo30sgwt
“I also remember the bitter fights of the 1980s, the party was so divided and it led to what they called the Gang of Four, who advocated splitting the Labour party and walking off with all the press enthusiasm,” he said.
“I have to say, I’m more than worried that events at the moment some of that is hanging about, we now have a ‘Group of Two’, Chuka, and the other guy, what’s his name — Tristan Hunt. A right academic. Maybe he should have stayed at the university.”
I struggle to see BTL as the real problem. If its BTL someone lives in the house, if we kill BTL then it is either sold or rented, and someone lives in the house, it neither adds to nor subtracts from the number of properties being lived in.
Holiday homes, and homes bought as investment and never lived in are the real problem, plus the rather basic issue that we just plain don't have enough with quarter of a million new people arriving in the country every year, and the increase in family breakdowns meaning less people live in each property.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/29/the-temperate-desert/
I'd think as a baby-eating Tory you'd be a red sauce person?
Have you voted for Corbyn?
" One Nation Conservatism.
how's that going in Scotland ?"
Obviously, not very well. It has not occurred to many people south of the border that when the voters in Scotland realised that the Conservative and Unionist party were seemingly not interested in the country, then the Tories were not worth putting a cross on a ballot paper for.
Labour didn't understand and as far as the leadership was concerned, it was business as usual. The party paid the price. Membership declined.
The romance of the SNP attracted many people of all political beliefs with the story of how everything would be better by being Independent. Extreme right to extreme left with all the flavours in between. All with different visions or dreams of what Scotland would be like after a "Yes" vote.
Agree, or disagree with them, they have a dream and they are following it still.
Corbyn is offering a different dream, one again that many people here disagree with. He is consistent, considered and he has many potential voters thinking it is time for a change. The number of people going to his meetings, joining the Labour party to support him is definitely frightening the political class of all sides as being something they cannot understand or control.
The electorate have woken up and they have realised that their vote can make a difference. It got rid of the LibDems. If the Labour party doesn't change direction now, then it will go the same way as the the party in Scotland.
Where does that leave the Conservatives, seemingly with a winning hand. But, I suspect that there are a few "grey beards" on the Tory backbenches who are considering a future under the present front bench and are not liking the possibilities and probabilities.
Something will always try and fill a vacuum, sometimes it will be something you don't expect or want.
On another note, a local rental agency recently went bust, with string rumours of financial mismanagement. A friend of ours has really been left in the lurch, as have his (good) tenants.
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Concern-Cambourne-letting-agent-8217-s-8216/story-27514286-detail/story.html
That is an IMMENSE put down.
The micro effects are bad enough, but there's another effect that few seem to realise. Since 2007, the economy has desperately needed stimulus from low interest rates. The way that is supposed to work is that low interest rates mean house prices rise so more houses get built and people are employed. That was what happened in the now forgotten boom in the mid-1930s (which is why about a third of our housing stock consists of 1930s semis). But this time, that transmission mechanism is blocked, because it is so difficult to build new houses. So absurdly low interest rates have led only to a slow and uncertain recovery.
There is another effect that is worth mentioning. Because the cost of land and planning permission is such a high proportion of the cost of a house (70% now instead of 2% in the 1930s) builders have to save money where they can - they have to build low quality, ugly houses to make any money at all. And they know somebody out there will have to buy them.
All in all, Labour's 1947 planning regulations, as amended, are the worst act of economic and social self-harm we've done to ourselves as a country. (And will be until we elect Jeremy Corbyn ...)
Labour may be better off seeing Corbyn win then dumping him for Alan Johnson in 3 years time
They might well ask what is Conservative about a raising the minimum wage to a level even Labour didn't dare ? What is Conservative about taking millions of people out of income tax so they have no stake in caring how the nations money is spent ? What is Conservative about having fewer people owning their homes now than when Thatcher left power ? What is Conservative about taxing a business on its turnover rather than it's profit ?
Very little damages a party 'for a generation'. Corbyn will not, if he quits before 2020. He is extremely likely to do so---he has neither the ambition nor the stomach for the long haul.
4. Apply to Google to have the entire Corbynmania *forgotten*
They will gain enthusiasm and numbers? They will gain the shouty, obnoxious brigade who vote Labour anyway and do their best to put off any undecided. "We don't want you, you're not Labour enough."
Brilliant strategy.
2. That will require new lines of funding to be realised to replace the unions, at just the time they are installing the sort of leader that is going to have the wealthy donors heading for the door.
3. Well...
I would add
4. Decide what a centre left party stands for and what it wants to achieve, and how it thinks it can achieve it in a globalized world where money is almost always going to be tight, and where options for raising taxes on rich people without them running away is pretty limited.
Do any of the candidates have what is takes to be Prime Minister?
Yes/No/DK
AB: 24/48/28
JC: 23/52/25
YC: 23/50/27
LK: 16/55/30
A ringing endorsement all-round!
Also:
"Some 57 per cent of Labour voters said they would stick with the party if he becomes leader and 36 per cent of Greens would switch to him. But 26 per cent of Labour voters said they would abandon the party. And he would pick up only 8 per cent of Tory votes, 9 per cent of Ukip votes and 18 per cent of Lib Dem votes." (Mail)
A party capable of electing him, for whatever reason and with whatever greater end in mind, is simply not to be trusted.
If the Cons elected Redwood or Jacob or even Boris the same charge could be made against them.
Someone should save that truncated quote. Not representative of the actual opinion obviously, but funny.
It's also worth pointing out, for all their public persona, in their particular fields - economics (Redwood) and publicity (Boris) they are recognised experts and actually really good at what they do. Corbyn, on the other hand, is somebody whose sole contribution to public life is to talk to terrorists actively engaged in murderous campaigns, describing them as friends and publicly supporting their goals.
OK, so Redwood does a mean goldfish impression and Boris is crazy. But compared to Corbyn, they are both true heavyweights.
Labour are not so much jumping the shark as jumping fifty killer whales in one go in even considering him.