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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big Democratic party WH2016 question remans – “Is Joe Biden going to run”?
The head of steam that’s building up over a Joe Biden WH2016 bid has received an enormous boost with a range of key state polling from Quinnipac University suggesting that in several battles the Vice-President could do better than Hillary against a range of likely GOP nominees.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koEFHyxfKb4
She's a much better politician than Kendall IMO - I don't agree with most of what she says (especially the rubbish about "paying down the debt"), but she atleast gives fluent and coherent answers. Unlike Kendall and her limited collection of contrived slogans which she parrots while clearly not having understood or thought deeply about the issues at all.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
Interesting grid. Just going to start writing the pre-race piece now.
Personally I have no time at all for this lady.
But on the positive side, yes she is useless.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34027260
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-should-be-considered-the-democratic-frontrunner_b_8019264.html
Trump's continuing presence is making the real GOP race very difficult to read. We have 16 chasing 75-80% of the vote, so very small changes can lead to big shake ups in the order of the rest.
I still think that the front runners are Bush, Walker and Rubio, with Kasich the wild card. Walker is not impressing as Presidential material, despite his electoral prowess at the gubernatorial level. Bush is not exciting anyone, and is up there solely because of Establishment support and his money raising. The GOP would be wise to pick either of the last two (with my preference, which has nothing to do with what I think will happen, being a Kasich/Rubio ticket), Hillary, IMO, could not win against that ticket
However, no-one is sustaining a real front runner position, and Rubio has had funding problems in addition to polling problems. Kasich, in reality, will have a tough time winning GOP primaries outside New England unless an early win really fires his campaign and he can concentrate his message on his fiscal conservatism rather than his social pragmatism.
Looks devastating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvHplYmh2f8
And she won't.
About Hillary the more polls show her in trouble with Trump the greater the chances that Biden will run.
Trump is so hated by democratic party circles that he's a test, if Hillary seems to fail that test of beating Trump in the polls then the democrats will look for someone else.
Incidentally, of the statements sent to all members by the four leadership contenders, I thought that Andy Burnham's pitch was the best-pitched (and for alphabetical reasons it comes first) - it appeals to the "we must change" theme as convincingly as Kendall, without the contentious elements. I'd already decided how I was voting, but I'd think he did himself no harm with the undecided voters. If members want to shift a bit left without going as far as Corbyn, I can see him coming second on the first ballot.
http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polls-republicans-winnning-365199
"Republican Donald Trump is pulling away from the pack in the race for the party's U.S. presidential nomination, widening his lead over his closest rivals in the past week, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Friday.
Republican voters show no signs they are growing weary of the brash real estate mogul, who has dominated political headlines and the 17-strong Republican presidential field with his tough talk about immigration and insults directed at his political rivals. The candidates are vying to be nominated to represent their party in the November 2016 general election.
Nearly 32 percent of Republicans surveyed online said they backed Trump, up from 24 percent a week earlier, the opinion poll found. Trump had nearly double the support of his closest competitor, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who got 16 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson was third at 8 percent."
I expect Trump to lead the polls all the way till Christmas.
The camera position on the above vid is far too low, imo.
It's Saturday, the sun is out, and I'm trynig to avoid getting round to installing a gatepost.
Party establishments and voters live in different worlds.
On Kasich, I didn't know that. Who do you think is the best candidate?
Party establishments may understand the wider electorate but they neglect their own supporters.
I may be in denial, but I simply do not accept that the current polling is measuring actual voting intentions of likely GOP primary voters. It is measuring, IMO, a mixture of name recognition, frustration with politicians as normal, and white anger. I do not think these will be the primary considerations of actual primary voters come January and February.
No one, they are all too trashy, boring and out of touch compared with the democrats.
The typical trajectory of republican candidates is they start hard on the right annoying non-right wing voters and then move left annoying right wing voters, in the end they manage to annoy everyone, the case study for that is Rand Paul.
For a republican to win in 2016 he needs an economic recession, a scandal to hit the democrats, their team to be immune from criticism, to keep both sides of Wall Street and the people happy and to have basic communication skills.
I say Trump has the best chances at around 1 in 8.
If she's 6 points ahead but losing N.Carolina, Florida and having major trouble in Pennsylvania it might be because she concentrates support in N.York and California at the expense of swing-states.
@Speedy If Trump is the GOP's best candidate, then who on earth is their worst (maybe Carson, now thinking about it...)? From what I've heard about Rand Paul, he's a libertarian.
@HYUFD Sanders apparently describes himself as a socialist, which I thought wouldn't have gone down well with American voters....
See: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1016493848381386&set=gm.879325295497638&type=1
CNN had Trump doing best against Hillary of the GOP contendors and only losing by 5 points while the others lost by greater margins but that looks like a rogue poll
2. Chris Christie, absolutely the worst possible candidate, hated by all, up to his neck with corruption scandals and the financial collapse of his own state, he might even go to jail before the election.
3. Sanders runs as a democrat you forget, and after 25 years of centrist-right wing democrats there is desire for change, don't forget if Obama was white he would have been primaried in 2011, all people who voted Obama in 2008 are disappointed with him but still stuck with him because he's black and he's not a republican.
I know many are now doubting the conventional wisdom that Trump cannot win, citing Corbyn. I think there are real dangers in making parallels between US and UK politics - they are completely different. Talking to a wide array of people across the GOP political spectrum, I simply just do not buy that Trump can get to 50+% of the delegates.
There is a reason why no republican candidate has ever got the nomination if he failed to win Iowa or N.Hampshire, momentum.
Until they reach Florida, Bush would have lost 20 states, a record worse than Giuliani in 2008 when he waited for Florida to save him too.
If Trump wins the first 2 then on March 15 he would win all of them, even Ohio as Kasich will probably withdraw after N. Hampshire or S.Carolina
Nightmare on Wall Street?????
Or n the City?????
History is useful in reading elections, but it does not bind the future. HYUFD claims the GOP traditionally goes with the frontrunner. In fact, it traditionally goes with last iteration's runner up. This time that should be Huckabee or Ron Paul. Neither of those are going to happen.
Sure, there have been previous GOP primaries with a big field, including 2012, but seldom with so many who really could go all the way. This one has a different feel than 2012 and I suspect will hold a number of surprises for us all.
A very unpleasant close-up.
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=u2ZdBgAAQBAJ&pg=PT111&lpg=PT111&dq=hawker+hunter+production+ceased&source=bl&ots=Gq0gLllQ_a&sig=2jmTezMQVRFQ55dzdJjcFUmYR-A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CFIQ6AEwCGoVChMIzLOX7Iq9xwIVBXDbCh1WqAAW#v=onepage&q=hawker hunter production ceased&f=false
And it's not geographically constrained, in 2012 Romney dominated the N.E. in the state polls all the way but was very weak in the south and the plains, he was also lucky that Florida was no.4 on the list not no.20.
Trump's lead is wide and deep in all demographics, all issues and all regions.
Think about it, if a candidate was leading 4-1 on the economy and immigration, 3-1 on foreign policy, 2-1 on social issues and leading the polls by 2-1 margin everywhere, you would have though that he's going to win.
AIUI, it depends on many things, including the airframe's fatigue life. If the aircraft is properly maintained, and fatigue life has not been reached (and you do not mind the aerobatics eating up the remaining fatigue life), why not?
A much bigger problem might be giving pilots enough airtime to keep really familiar with the aircraft; although there are several Hunters still flying, so it would not be as bad as it could be for some types.
BTW The pilot survived I believe. The plane was performing a loop.
Talking about Giuliani reminded me of his encounter with Trump:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8
That said, I'm quite looking foreword to Jeremy winning (and I will also make money which helps)- I don't think Jezza will go down well, but I've been wrong before.
Listening to the Media Show from a couple of weeks ago and silly celeb "stop the kiss and tell" injunctions about stories that are already all over the internet seem to be back.
We *still* live in a legal banana republic :-(.
"There will really be only two contestants in the next general election: the political class and the people. And by the “political class”, I mean the entire operation that runs, manipulates and communicates the activities of government. That conglomeration of politicians and their special interest lobbies, media followers and professional handlers is now more self-referring, inbred and profoundly detached from the reality of most people’s lives than at any time in a generation. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10730787/The-people-feel-ignored-and-they-are-angry.html
It's odd how people's minds work sometimes.
Hilary Clinton and Jeremy Corbyn are the same price (1.44/1.45-6) on Betfair.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3207016/Pilot-pulled-burning-wreckage-plane-crashes-Shoreham-Airshow.html
Took the roof clean off that old Daimler.
Engine failure looks most likely to me...
Hopefully Ladbrokes is running again.
Edited extra bit: good, it is.
Except I loathe the fact that for some damned reason it now appears that you can't get every market on one page. Why redesign the site to reduce user friendliness?
And is the search function still there?
So if, and it's a huge if, Trump's numbers hold up until voting begins, is it enough to win in a three horse race? Yes. In a two horse race? No. So once March 15 is out of the way, I suspect if Trump is still around that there would be incredible pressure for those remaining candidates most centered within the party (Rubio, Bush, Walker, Kasich, Christie) to reduce to one candidate. Prognosticating so far out is a little foolish, but if forced to guess I'd say the voting would then split 50+% Establishment candidate, >35% Trump, >15% all others remaining.
For trends within the GOP, see:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/21/how-sustainable-is-donald-trumps-lead/
Betting PostF1: a pre-race piece with a not terribly original bet:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/belgium-pre-race.html
Perhaps it's because I'm a shade off-colour or because it's the first race since Cnut was on the throne, but I found it difficult to find a good bet.
So, I went for one as comfortable as a pair of slippers:
Maldonado not to be classified: 2.5
The list of non-finishes by Lotus does not merry reading make.
You can argue that big tent Republicans don't really exist anymore but if they do, he'd have that perhaps-imaginary slice of the electorate locked up.