Whilst waiting for the by-election results have a look at this, no wonder Fox News surrendered to Trump, Trump's entire political movements so far can be deciphered by this crazy stuff he did at Wrestlemania, this is essentially his entire political campaign in a 4 minute video:
Prof Paul Whitely, from the University of Essex, has been researching the demographic makeup of party membership since 1992 and most recently he has investigated norms in political opinion. "We've been conducting surveys since 2013. The assumption in Westminster is parties need to be close together in the 'centre ground', but that is not what drives elections. "Voters are not asking themselves, 'Where is Jeremy Corbyn on the left-right dimension?' They're asking themselves: 'Is this guy saying something which is new which might help me and deal with the problems that Britain faces?' "The thing about Jeremy Corbyn, whether you agree or disagree with him, is that he has a new narrative and I think that's what's exciting people."
This is fascinating stuff and must be a source of optimism for Corbyites and of course all the rest the Labour Party. Whitely has been doing this stuff for a long time as this piece from The Guardian optimistically reported in Feb2015 ''The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out by the first-past-the-post system, according to a new electoral forecast by Prof Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, co-director of the British Election Study from 2001 to 2012.''
Whiteley does seem to be a bit of a cockeyed-optimist, doesn't he?!
To be fair, there was no small number of posters on pbc who said the same, pre-election.
How precisely does Corbyn propose to "nationalise the energy sector"? Whilst at least he can try to claim that nationalising the railways won't cost much/anything because of all the subsidies the rail companies allegedly get to fund their profits, how is he proposing to buy out the energy sector?
Nationalisation is relatively easy. You can pay the market price for the shares, or compel the current owners to hand them over in return for some kind of bond. The debate is whether or not it is a good idea. If it stops my concentration being interrupted by people ringing me up offering to give me a better deal on my electricity bill every half hour when I am trying to work I'll be in favour of it.
Prof Paul Whitely, from the University of Essex, has been researching the demographic makeup of party membership since 1992 and most recently he has investigated norms in political opinion. "We've been conducting surveys since 2013. The assumption in Westminster is parties need to be close together in the 'centre ground', but that is not what drives elections. "Voters are not asking themselves, 'Where is Jeremy Corbyn on the left-right dimension?' They're asking themselves: 'Is this guy saying something which is new which might help me and deal with the problems that Britain faces?' "The thing about Jeremy Corbyn, whether you agree or disagree with him, is that he has a new narrative and I think that's what's exciting people."
This is fascinating stuff and must be a source of optimism for Corbyites and of course all the rest the Labour Party. Whitely has been doing this stuff for a long time as this piece from The Guardian optimistically reported in Feb2015 ''The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out by the first-past-the-post system, according to a new electoral forecast by Prof Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, co-director of the British Election Study from 2001 to 2012.''
Whiteley does seem to be a bit of a cockeyed-optimist, doesn't he?!
To be fair, there was no small number of posters on pbc who said the same, pre-election.
Yes, but they don't get feature articles in the Guardian...
Prof Paul Whitely, from the University of Essex, has been researching the demographic makeup of party membership since 1992 and most recently he has investigated norms in political opinion. "We've been conducting surveys since 2013. The assumption in Westminster is parties need to be close together in the 'centre ground', but that is not what drives elections. "Voters are not asking themselves, 'Where is Jeremy Corbyn on the left-right dimension?' They're asking themselves: 'Is this guy saying something which is new which might help me and deal with the problems that Britain faces?' "The thing about Jeremy Corbyn, whether you agree or disagree with him, is that he has a new narrative and I think that's what's exciting people."
This is fascinating stuff and must be a source of optimism for Corbyites and of course all the rest the Labour Party. Whitely has been doing this stuff for a long time as this piece from The Guardian optimistically reported in Feb2015 ''The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out by the first-past-the-post system, according to a new electoral forecast by Prof Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, co-director of the British Election Study from 2001 to 2012.''
Whiteley does seem to be a bit of a cockeyed-optimist, doesn't he?!
To be fair, there was no small number of posters on pbc who said the same, pre-election.
Labour has lost their seat in Exeter to the Tories by 6 votes.
Clearly all this 'non-corbynites are Tories' stuff convinced enough Labour voters in Exeter to show their true colours. Or they looked around and said 'Hang on, this is the SW isn't it? Aren't we supposed to be voting Tory?'
Something that surprises me about the Labour leadership election..... There have been lots of polls in the US showing opinion on the various possible Democratic Candidate versus Republican candidate matchups. (Clinton v Bush, Clinton v Trump, etc)
Has anyone seen any equivalent polling on the relative strengths of the four Labour candidates versus the Tories? e.g. asking the public as a whole which one might make them more likely to vote Labour?
Yes, a yougov poll from 3 weeks ago. Burnham is at -2. Corbyn at -2. Kendall at -3. Cooper at -6.
They all make people less likely to vote Labour net.
Thanks Speedy. Depressing reading for all four contenders, really.
Though Corbyn has a net positive in Scotland. Of other potential contendors polled who are not running Alan Johnson and David Miliband had positive ratings overall and were ahead of all 4 contendors running
Apparently he's been making comments about opposing Scotland utilising the new tax powers they have been given, and strongly opposing any transfers of business taxation (of course he wants to use business taxation to fund a lot of his schemes and doesn't like the idea of being undercut by Scotland - although why being undercut by other countries isn't a problem for him isn't clear). SNP are "seeking clarification"...
Only because he wants to raise their taxes even further
Meanwhile, on TNT televising the PGA the debate continues about the color of Rory McIlroy's pants. A Nike spokesman has just announced - they are fuchsia.
There have been rumors about this for a couple of weeks - doesn't seem likely though.
No, not at the moment, however if Hillary is weakened further Gore may get in, there is no love lost between those 2 (and has not been after Hillary tried to take his office and he distanced himself from Bill)
Any risk of power cuts comes from Labour's refusal to sanction new power stations until it was too late. This government has given the go ahead for up to 8 new nuclear stations. Unfortunately the SNP have said no nuclear stations will be built in Scotland.
As it happens the UK's peak electrical demand fell from 61.5 GW to 57.5 GW between 2007 and 2012 - whilst your article says ''Current UK generating capacity is put at 65,000 megawatts and demand peaked last December at 54,000 megawatts.''
There have been rumors about this for a couple of weeks - doesn't seem likely though.
No, not at the moment, however if Hillary is weakened further Gore may get in, there is no love lost between those 2 (and has not been after Hillary tried to take his office and he distanced himself from Bill)
Hillary has 2 main problems -
1) she is a weak candidate, and it is becoming increasingly obvious that the more people hear and see of her the less they like her
2) EMAILS. Now she has 'voluntarily' turned her server over to the FBI, that will go quiet until the Feds have something to say, which will be months. It is confirmed that she had 'Top Secret' materials in 2 emails. The regular release of her emails from State will continue until the end of January, reinforcing the untrustworthy theme.
Meanwhile, on TNT televising the PGA the debate continues about the color of Rory McIlroy's pants. A Nike spokesman has just announced - they are fuchsia.
Even when he was just a young player, I recognized that McIlroy was the golfer of the fuchsia.
Meanwhile, on TNT televising the PGA the debate continues about the color of Rory McIlroy's pants. A Nike spokesman has just announced - they are fuchsia.
Even when he was just a young player, I recognized that McIlroy was the golfer of the fuchsia.
Prof Paul Whitely, from the University of Essex, has been researching the demographic makeup of party membership since 1992 and most recently he has investigated norms in political opinion. "We've been conducting surveys since 2013. The assumption in Westminster is parties need to be close together in the 'centre ground', but that is not what drives elections. "Voters are not asking themselves, 'Where is Jeremy Corbyn on the left-right dimension?' They're asking themselves: 'Is this guy saying something which is new which might help me and deal with the problems that Britain faces?' "The thing about Jeremy Corbyn, whether you agree or disagree with him, is that he has a new narrative and I think that's what's exciting people."
This is fascinating stuff and must be a source of optimism for Corbyites and of course all the rest the Labour Party. Whitely has been doing this stuff for a long time as this piece from The Guardian optimistically reported in Feb2015 ''The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out by the first-past-the-post system, according to a new electoral forecast by Prof Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, co-director of the British Election Study from 2001 to 2012.''
It's hard to criticise the man for that when he was relying on input data (the polls) that were shoddy. He wasn't to know that.
I think the Corbyn supporters are correct when they say that people aren't judged on the right-left spectrum. But I think it's incorrect to say people also want something "new" (they're quite happy sticking with something old if they think it's the right approach), and they also need more than wanting something which will help them personally. They also want something that they feel is workable and is in line with their values. The problem Corbyn has is that ideas like printing money to fund infrastructure don't come across as workable, and his views of Hamas and Hezbollah make him seem like he is far out of touch with most people's values.
There have been rumors about this for a couple of weeks - doesn't seem likely though.
No, not at the moment, however if Hillary is weakened further Gore may get in, there is no love lost between those 2 (and has not been after Hillary tried to take his office and he distanced himself from Bill)
I don't see what the Democrats gain from replacing one aloof establishment figure with another one. If they decide to drop Clinton, they need someone younger that has more dynamism and charisma. Given that Chafee and Webb do not seem acceptable to the majority of the party, that only leaves O'Malley.
Meanwhile, on TNT televising the PGA the debate continues about the color of Rory McIlroy's pants. A Nike spokesman has just announced - they are fuchsia.
There have been rumors about this for a couple of weeks - doesn't seem likely though.
No, not at the moment, however if Hillary is weakened further Gore may get in, there is no love lost between those 2 (and has not been after Hillary tried to take his office and he distanced himself from Bill)
I don't see what the Democrats gain from replacing one aloof establishment figure with another one. If they decide to drop Clinton, they need someone younger that has more dynamism and charisma. Given that Chafee and Webb do not seem acceptable to the majority of the party, that only leaves O'Malley.
Gore has already beaten 1 Bush in the popular vote, and arguably the electoral college too but for some hanging chads. Biden may also get in. O'Malley is an asterisk at the moment
There have been rumors about this for a couple of weeks - doesn't seem likely though.
No, not at the moment, however if Hillary is weakened further Gore may get in, there is no love lost between those 2 (and has not been after Hillary tried to take his office and he distanced himself from Bill)
Hillary has 2 main problems -
1) she is a weak candidate, and it is becoming increasingly obvious that the more people hear and see of her the less they like her
2) EMAILS. Now she has 'voluntarily' turned her server over to the FBI, that will go quiet until the Feds have something to say, which will be months. It is confirmed that she had 'Top Secret' materials in 2 emails. The regular release of her emails from State will continue until the end of January, reinforcing the untrustworthy theme.
Maybe, but she still tends to lead most polls and the GOP may yet pick Trump
Your gossip site is abysmal, what is this, implying that Trump had an affair with Megan Kelly is beyond nuts. I don't know were you found it, but it makes order-order look like the NYT.
Your gossip site is abysmal, what is this, implying that Trump had an affair with Megan Kelly is beyond nuts. I don't know were you found it, but it makes order-order look like the NYT.
Your guess is as good as mind, but it is only a gossip site. Mind you, the John Edwards affair first broke in National Enquirer
I see that Lab to SNP swings in both Denny and Lanarkshire tonight keep up the 20-22.5 average of the other contests in Glasgow and Aberdeen in recent weeks. All in all that is 30,000-40,000 of a sample and the pattern is very, very consistent. All of these results suggest that the SNP is some 40 points ahead of Labour just now - just like the Systems Three Opinion poll this week which suggested 62-23%
Today brought a phone canvass call from Corbyn's campaign and a well-printed leaflet from Burnham (haven't read it yet, just got in), as well as a well-printed one from Lammy for London. Haven't heard from Cooper or Kendall's campaigns yet except by email - or from the other London candidates.
Today brought a phone canvass call from Corbyn's campaign and a well-printed leaflet from Burnham (haven't read it yet, just got in), as well as a well-printed one from Lammy for London. Haven't heard from Cooper or Kendall's campaigns yet except by email - or from the other London candidates.
"Greek members of parliament are debating late into the night ahead of a vote on a new bailout agreement. The proposed deal involves tax rises and spending cuts in return for a third international bailout of about €85bn (£61bn). Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said he is confident he will win the vote, but some senior members of his Syriza party are defying the government. The debate itself was preceded by hours of often angry exchanges in parliament."
Comments
That's right - they are assuming someone who said "Yes" on one phone call is as likely to vote as someone who sends in £45 every year.
If Corbyn doesn't win you really will not need to be Einstein to work out why the result did not match the polls.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/al-gore-insiders-figuring-out-if-theres-a-path-for-him-to-ru#.bkLngVlQvp
To be fair, there was no small number of posters on pbc who said the same, pre-election.
Yes, but they don't get feature articles in the Guardian...
*cough* Clearly all this 'non-corbynites are Tories' stuff convinced enough Labour voters in Exeter to show their true colours. Or they looked around and said 'Hang on, this is the SW isn't it? Aren't we supposed to be voting Tory?'
Good night all.
This government has given the go ahead for up to 8 new nuclear stations. Unfortunately the SNP have said no nuclear stations will be built in Scotland.
As it happens the UK's peak electrical demand fell from 61.5 GW to 57.5 GW between 2007 and 2012 - whilst your article says ''Current UK generating capacity is put at 65,000 megawatts and demand peaked last December at 54,000 megawatts.''
SNP - 69.1% (+30.2)
LAB - 14.7% (-15.9)
CON - 11.6% (+7.9)
GRN - 4.6% (+4.6)
1) she is a weak candidate, and it is becoming increasingly obvious that the more people hear and see of her the less they like her
2) EMAILS. Now she has 'voluntarily' turned her server over to the FBI, that will go quiet until the Feds have something to say, which will be months. It is confirmed that she had 'Top Secret' materials in 2 emails. The regular release of her emails from State will continue until the end of January, reinforcing the untrustworthy theme.
EDIT: I bet that they suit him to a tee.
Whitely has been doing this stuff for a long time as this piece from The Guardian optimistically reported in Feb2015
''The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out by the first-past-the-post system, according to a new electoral forecast by Prof Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, co-director of the British Election Study from 2001 to 2012.''
It's hard to criticise the man for that when he was relying on input data (the polls) that were shoddy. He wasn't to know that.
I think the Corbyn supporters are correct when they say that people aren't judged on the right-left spectrum. But I think it's incorrect to say people also want something "new" (they're quite happy sticking with something old if they think it's the right approach), and they also need more than wanting something which will help them personally. They also want something that they feel is workable and is in line with their values. The problem Corbyn has is that ideas like printing money to fund infrastructure don't come across as workable, and his views of Hamas and Hezbollah make him seem like he is far out of touch with most people's values.
So that's four days of orgasmic "Lib Dem Fightback Success Glorious Wonderfulness Begins Now!" upcoming thread headers to ignore.
Deep Joy.
"The Presidential Candidate And The Journalist"
http://blindgossip.com/?p=73124
Your gossip site is abysmal, what is this, implying that Trump had an affair with Megan Kelly is beyond nuts.
I don't know were you found it, but it makes order-order look like the NYT.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/al-gores-friends-aides-eyeing-2016-race/story?id=33072322
These are truly remarkable figures.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/lara-brown/2015/08/13/carly-fiorinas-2016-gop-rise-has-just-begun
Now 6th GOP fav on Betfair. She's value at 17.
The proposed deal involves tax rises and spending cuts in return for a third international bailout of about €85bn (£61bn).
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said he is confident he will win the vote, but some senior members of his Syriza party are defying the government.
The debate itself was preceded by hours of often angry exchanges in parliament."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33914956
I didn't know they were still debating the bailout! When will it end...
"Supercobynisticlabourareatrocious"
With thanks Ms Poppins.
(Beat the sun to it)