CON 40 (+2) LAB 31 (-3) LIB 7 (+1) UKIP 10 (-3) GRN 4 (=) SNP 5 (+1)
Note: New methodology
At this rate Labour will be down to 27% by the time the next leader is appointed. It will make it very easy to portray his or her stewardship as a success, as an increase in likely.
CON 40 (+2) LAB 31 (-3) LIB 7 (+1) UKIP 10 (-3) GRN 4 (=) SNP 5 (+1)
Note: New methodology
Boo - MOE!
I know it's being greedy so soon after a GE and the very entertaining Labour contest (I hope the next Tory one is this good, the LD one was so sombre due to how bad a situation there are in that it wasn't fun), but I want somew major shifts!
Also, are the LDs officially back to just being Liberals, hence being LIB?
Wonder which will happen first, Labour becoming electable or the heat death of the universe...
There are still on 31! It's not a million miles from electability - they seem to have a very decent floor of support, though they are testing it right now.
CON 40 (+2) LAB 31 (-3) LIB 7 (+1) UKIP 10 (-3) GRN 4 (=) SNP 5 (+1)
Note: New methodology
Boo - MOE!
I know it's being greedy so soon after a GE and the very entertaining Labour contest (I hope the next Tory one is this good, the LD one was so sombre due to how bad a situation there are in that it wasn't fun), but I want somew major shifts!
Also, are the LDs officially back to just being Liberals, hence being LIB?
A two word title seems a little extravagant for a party with 8 MPs.
CON 40 (+2) LAB 31 (-3) LIB 7 (+1) UKIP 10 (-3) GRN 4 (=) SNP 5 (+1)
Note: New methodology
The Greens are at the same level they were in the election, and UKIP are only back three points. And they both have the dissatisfaction with government that builds up over five years. UKIP especially could have a major effect on the next election. I think the main new development is that a Corbyn-led Labour will be highly vulnerable.
Mr. L, really? Labour on 31 seems eminently possible.
Well I am obviously being facetious since I have no idea but every Labour supporter I know seems pretty close to despair and really doubtful if they will vote for their party again. Of course in Scotland the problems of the party are particularly acute and it may be better in London, for example.
This leadership campaign seems designed to test the old saw about all publicity being good publicity to destruction.
CON 40 (+2) LAB 31 (-3) LIB 7 (+1) UKIP 10 (-3) GRN 4 (=) SNP 5 (+1)
Note: New methodology
Labour on 31? I think the new methodology may still need some tweaking.
Wait till Corbyn gets going.
I wouldn't be surprised if the figure wasn't 25-27% by the time of next year's local elections.
I was speaking to some politically active people today, one Labour, one Tory, they said, they reckon Labour will be polling around 30% if Corbyn is elected leader.
What they think will happen is a huge chunk of the Con to UKIP switchers will go back to the Tories, and the Tories will be polling in the mid 40s.
CON 40 (+2) LAB 31 (-3) LIB 7 (+1) UKIP 10 (-3) GRN 4 (=) SNP 5 (+1)
Note: New methodology
Labour on 31? I think the new methodology may still need some tweaking.
Wait till Corbyn gets going.
I wouldn't be surprised if the figure wasn't 25-27% by the time of next year's local elections.
I was speaking to some politically active people today, one Labour, one Tory, they said, they reckon Labour will be polling around 30% if Corbyn is elected leader.
What they think will happen is a huge chunk of the Con to UKIP switchers will go back to the Tories, and the Tories will be polling in the mid 40s.
Do you think that's possible?
I actually think the opposite. I think labour will get a big bump in the polls. Fresh new ideas, broken consensus, man to lead out of the neo liberal quagmire, all that kind of gunk.
He will have simple (and plausible) solutions to very difficult problems.
There is not a problem out there that cant be solved by gigantic dollops of public money (the argument will go), even those problems that are quite obviously only exist because of too many dollops of public money, will again, only be solved be even more.
As I said, he will get a bump in the polls, and if the country enters into a recession or another financial crisis expect him to have significant poll leads.
It will all crumble away in the build up to 2020, but not until then.
@NCPoliticsUK: 9 points is the biggest CON lead in an ICM poll while in government since May 1992, and the second biggest ever, according to @markpack's db
@NCPoliticsUK: 9 points is the biggest CON lead in an ICM poll while in government since May 1992, and the second biggest ever, according to @markpack's db
If it wasn’t for the Tory honeymoon, Labour would be on at least 32%.
CON 40 (+2) LAB 31 (-3) LIB 7 (+1) UKIP 10 (-3) GRN 4 (=) SNP 5 (+1)
Note: New methodology
Labour on 31? I think the new methodology may still need some tweaking.
Wait till Corbyn gets going.
I wouldn't be surprised if the figure wasn't 25-27% by the time of next year's local elections.
I was speaking to some politically active people today, one Labour, one Tory, they said, they reckon Labour will be polling around 30% if Corbyn is elected leader.
What they think will happen is a huge chunk of the Con to UKIP switchers will go back to the Tories, and the Tories will be polling in the mid 40s.
Do you think that's possible?
I actually think the opposite. I think labour will get a big bump in the polls. Fresh new ideas, broken consensus, man to lead out of the neo liberal quagmire, all that kind of gunk.
He will have simple (and plausible) solutions to very difficult problems.
There is not a problem out there that cant be solved by gigantic dollops of public money (the argument will go), even those problems that are quite obviously only exist because of too many dollops of public money, will again, only be solved be even more.
As I said, he will get a bump in the polls, and if the country enters into a recession or another financial crisis expect him to have significant poll leads.
It will all crumble away in the build up to 2020, but not until then.
That's kinda my thinking.
Aided and abetted by the Tories tearing themselves over the EU and the economy going south in this parliament.
Mr. L, really? Labour on 31 seems eminently possible.
Well I am obviously being facetious since I have no idea but every Labour supporter I know seems pretty close to despair and really doubtful if they will vote for their party again. Of course in Scotland the problems of the party are particularly acute and it may be better in London, for example.
This leadership campaign seems designed to test the old saw about all publicity being good publicity to destruction.
Of course, just to confuse matters, Jesus' initials were JbJ (Joshua bar Joesph). Jesus is the Greek version of his name, while Christ is a title ('Messiah, Saviour').
I've been away without internet access for two weeks. I have come backto discover that my £50 on the Labour party not being stupid enough to elect Andy Burnham appears to be somewhat safer than than I might have thought a few weeks ago.
There is not a problem out there that cant be solved by gigantic dollops of public money (the argument will go), even those problems that are quite obviously only exist because of too many dollops of public money, will again, only be solved be even more.
Another Soviet joke (sorry, but I do love them):
Q: Why is communism superior to capitalism?
A: Because it heroically overcomes problems that do not exist in any other system.
Talking about Christianity, as someone who generally mocks religion, can I say, the teacher stabbed in Bradford, using his faith, has shown dignity and forgiveness towards the kid that tried to kill him/wound him that I probably would never be able to show.
"My only worry is that Corbs may prove massively more popular with the wider electorate than anyone ever envisaged....."
I was introduced to an 86 year old woman in a cafe this morning with a strong German/Austrian accent. She came to the UK from Vienna in '48 and regaled me with stories of how the Austrians were worse than the Germans and how to this day they're still racists who refuse to accept their history.
She felt great affection for the English. For their friendliness and lack of corruption. She also hated the Tories with a passion almost equalling her loathing for her ex compatriots. She joined the Lib Dems because of Blair and has stuffed envelopes for them when required ever since.
She said if Corbyn won the leadership she would rejoin Labour and die happy!
It almost tempted me to pay my £3
Shame that she didn't recognise:
- it was a Tory administration that declared war on Germany - it was a Tory PM who won the war - the majority of her years of living in England have been under Tory rule
I'd be pretty thankful to the Tories in that situation.
Quite. It was the Jeremy Corbyn's of this world that were trying get on with Germany by appealing to the Nazis better nature. Just as the man himself does with Chavez and Hamas.
Hamas are just an armed group. Terrorists, revolutionaries, insurgents, freedom fighters - the designation is entirely subjective. Most of the groups we support in Syria are worse - and those are the nicer ones.
I've been away without internet access for two weeks. I have come backto discover that my £50 on the Labour party not being stupid enough to elect Andy Burnham appears to be somewhat safer than than I might have thought a few weeks ago.
Yes, your money is safe. It was £10 @7-1 that I had with you iirc, I'll send the site (Or yourself) £20 if Jezza does it
Mr. L, really? Labour on 31 seems eminently possible.
Mr. Dancer, I know you have a jolly good memory so I think your comment is disingenuous to say the least.
On the run up to the GE there were according to the pollsters two opposite and mutually exclusive movements happening amongst the voters. One group of polling companies detected a movement from Labour towards the Conservatives whilst at the same time another group detected a movement from the Conservatives towards Labour. By polling day all these companies' figures had coalesced at about the same place, the election was too close to call but probably a Labour minority government.
They were, of course, all wrong but that wouldn't matter as they were ALL wrong, and probably nobody would remember the contradictory trends. Except that one company, probably inadvertently, let the cat out of the bag. We had a poll, they said, which was remarkably close to the actual result, but we didn't publish it because it didn't "feel right". And there you have British polling fully exposed. Never mind, the careful attempts to obtain a representative sample, never mind the clever "scientific" weighting (a process that looks ever more dubious), if the answer doesn't come out "right" well then it can get sat on (or perhaps re-weighted).
So Labour on 31 does seem eminently possible. Labour on anything anyone is willing to pay for or which "seems right" to a polling company is eminently possible.
Mr. Eagles, even auto-correct has a better grasp of classical history than you
Auto-correct once turned "Hermes" in to "Herpes"
Auto-correct is the bane of my life
My father was once writing a report on animal welfare on a particular farm. Auto correct managed to turn every incident of 'pigs' into 'piss' and references to a Charolais bull into a 'Cheerless' bull.
Mr. Eagles, even auto-correct has a better grasp of classical history than you
Auto-correct once turned "Hermes" in to "Herpes"
Auto-correct is the bane of my life
My father was once writing a report on animal welfare on a particular farm. Auto correct managed to turn every incident of 'pigs' into 'piss' and references to a Charolais bull into a 'Cheerless' bull.
It was a very early version, but even so...
A few years ago, I was planning to visit my parents, but ended up having to delay, one day, I texted her
"All being well, I should be coming home tonight"
Except the phone turned it into
"All being well, I should be coming good tonight"
My sweet innocent mother, rang me up and said, what did your text mean, that you'd be coming good tonight
"My only worry is that Corbs may prove massively more popular with the wider electorate than anyone ever envisaged....."
I was introduced to an 86 year old woman in a cafe this morning with a strong German/Austrian accent. She came to the UK from Vienna in '48 and regaled me with stories of how the Austrians were worse than the Germans and how to this day they're still racists who refuse to accept their history.
She felt great affection for the English. For their friendliness and lack of corruption. She also hated the Tories with a passion almost equalling her loathing for her ex compatriots. She joined the Lib Dems because of Blair and has stuffed envelopes for them when required ever since.
She said if Corbyn won the leadership she would rejoin Labour and die happy!
It almost tempted me to pay my £3
Shame that she didn't recognise:
- it was a Tory administration that declared war on Germany - it was a Tory PM who won the war - the majority of her years of living in England have been under Tory rule
I'd be pretty thankful to the Tories in that situation.
Wasn't it also a Tory administration who believed in appeasement, as well? Chamberlain declaring 'peace for our time' and all that. I also recall learning that upon his election in January 1933, many Conservatives thought of Hitler as a counter-weight to USSR.
And wasn't Churchill leading a coalition government during the war? In any case, a single man did not singlehandedly 'win the war'. Unless you really believe that Russian and American involvement was minor.
A majority of her years may well have been under Tory rule, but it doesn't mean that those years have been beneficial for her personally, or indeed the country.
"My only worry is that Corbs may prove massively more popular with the wider electorate than anyone ever envisaged....."
I was introduced to an 86 year old woman in a cafe this morning with a strong German/Austrian accent. She came to the UK from Vienna in '48 and regaled me with stories of how the Austrians were worse than the Germans and how to this day they're still racists who refuse to accept their history.
She felt great affection for the English. For their friendliness and lack of corruption. She also hated the Tories with a passion almost equalling her loathing for her ex compatriots. She joined the Lib Dems because of Blair and has stuffed envelopes for them when required ever since.
She said if Corbyn won the leadership she would rejoin Labour and die happy!
It almost tempted me to pay my £3
Shame that she didn't recognise:
- it was a Tory administration that declared war on Germany - it was a Tory PM who won the war - the majority of her years of living in England have been under Tory rule
I'd be pretty thankful to the Tories in that situation.
Quite. It was the Jeremy Corbyn's of this world that were trying get on with Germany by appealing to the Nazis better nature. Just as the man himself does with Chavez and Hamas.
Hamas are just an armed group. Terrorists, revolutionaries, insurgents, freedom fighters - the designation is entirely subjective. Most of the groups we support in Syria are worse - and those are the nicer ones.
The designation is subjective but there's a clear difference between groups which are driven to use violence in an oppressive regime that offers no alternative but are willing to talk if that alternative is offered, and groups which use violence as a means of imposing a settlement on a people.
Mr. Eagles, even auto-correct has a better grasp of classical history than you
Auto-correct once turned "Hermes" in to "Herpes"
Auto-correct is the bane of my life
My father was once writing a report on animal welfare on a particular farm. Auto correct managed to turn every incident of 'pigs' into 'piss' and references to a Charolais bull into a 'Cheerless' bull.
@JohnRentoul: "Life expectancy gap between rich & poor areas fell under [neoliberal crypto-Tories]" http://t.co/3LbglH7TQq Vote Corbyn: stop this nonsense
I've been away without internet access for two weeks. I have come backto discover that my £50 on the Labour party not being stupid enough to elect Andy Burnham appears to be somewhat safer than than I might have thought a few weeks ago.
Oh no, it's quite stupid enough to do that if it's stupid enough to elect Corbyn. It just isn't going to.
Mr. Eagles, even auto-correct has a better grasp of classical history than you
Auto-correct once turned "Hermes" in to "Herpes"
Auto-correct is the bane of my life
My father was once writing a report on animal welfare on a particular farm. Auto correct managed to turn every incident of 'pigs' into 'piss' and references to a Charolais bull into a 'Cheerless' bull.
It was a very early version, but even so...
A few years ago, I was planning to visit my parents, but ended up having to delay, one day, I texted her
"All being well, I should be coming home tonight"
Except the phone turned it into
"All being well, I should be coming good tonight"
My sweet innocent mother, rang me up and said, what did your text mean, that you'd be coming good tonight
Oh good grief, I concede the field.
That's even better than the time at Aberystwyth that a young female student, who had much enjoyed herself with her boyfriend the previous night, sent him an email saying how much she had enjoyed herself and how much she loved him. Unfortunately she forgot that student emails had a number on the end, and sent it to a very senior member of staff instead.
EDIT - I was not involved, in any way, shape or form. I just got told about it by one of the people who WAS involved.
@Plato's early venison and bonds going native are very impressive too!
The team doctor for the U.S. squad at last week’s World Junior Rowing Championships says she believes 13 team members suffered stomach illnesses after competing in the polluted Rio lake that will host aquatic events at next year’s Olympics.
In some ways it was always going to happen - partly because the membership (well a lot of the new ones anyway) and activists are more left-wing than MPs and the Labour party establishment. But it is also a consequence of other fractions of the party - the moderate Labour Left, Brownites, Blairites - not being able to put up any inspiring candidates, who can conduct competent campaigns, and who can offer a credible alternative to the Tories. Liz Kendall isn't really offering an alternative; she is simply conceding ground on certain issues - but she has very little ideas of her own that would actually differentiate Labour as a different party from the Tories. Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham have said literally nothing since the campaign started. Corbyn is the only one running a competent campaign, the only one outlining any ideas, and the only one offering an alternative. He is literally in a race by himself, and that's why he is winning.
Of course YG could be wrong. But that seems doubtful.
CON 40 (+2) LAB 31 (-3) LIB 7 (+1) UKIP 10 (-3) GRN 4 (=) SNP 5 (+1)
Note: New methodology
Labour on 31? I think the new methodology may still need some tweaking.
Wait till Corbyn gets going.
I wouldn't be surprised if the figure wasn't 25-27% by the time of next year's local elections.
I was speaking to some politically active people today, one Labour, one Tory, they said, they reckon Labour will be polling around 30% if Corbyn is elected leader.
What they think will happen is a huge chunk of the Con to UKIP switchers will go back to the Tories, and the Tories will be polling in the mid 40s.
Do you think that's possible?
I think it's only likely if Labour looked like it could win, under Corbyn. I don't think that would be a realistic possibility. Back in 1983, the Conservatives were almost on 50%, three weeks out from the election, but the expectation of an easy victory allowed some more leftward Conservatives to vote for the Alliance instead. They knew they weren't risking anything, and I expect most UKIP supporters would take the same view.
I think that in some Conservative-held marginals, though, UKIP supporters would switch to the Conservatives to ensure Labour didn't get back in. In turn, I think some Conservatives would switch behind UKIP to knock out Labour, in seats where UKIP are in second place to Labour, and the Conservatives are third.
A Corbyn lead Labour party probably increases it's majorities in Liverpool Wavertree, East Ham and Glasgow North East too, meaning that the likes of Gedling; Barrow and Plymouth Moor View could well go.
I'd agree with those who'd foresee a Lab bump for awhile if Corbyn takes over, at least initially once he gets going. He's not very impressive as far as I can see, but he is different and there are things for the Tories to trip up on. But how long it would last is another matter - the leaders are samey as usually it works.
@JohnRentoul: "Life expectancy gap between rich & poor areas fell under [neoliberal crypto-Tories]" http://t.co/3LbglH7TQq Vote Corbyn: stop this nonsense
On Corbyn: I can't vote for someone who has that kind of attitude to Russia. That's Kippersque, FGS.
That piece says he campaigned against the deportation of a Chechen rebel to Russia, clearly he doesn't have *that* attitude to Russia, he's simply taking a balanced and statesmanlike view of the situation in contrast to our mainsteam press and political class. But then I suppose that is Kipperesque.
@JohnRentoul: "Life expectancy gap between rich & poor areas fell under [neoliberal crypto-Tories]" http://t.co/3LbglH7TQq Vote Corbyn: stop this nonsense
I think Labour will be down on the betting, whilst half the party runs round like headless chickens, and will then realise things aren't quite as bad as they'd imagined.
We'll then have a few years to wait for the party to be over.
@JohnRentoul: "Life expectancy gap between rich & poor areas fell under [neoliberal crypto-Tories]" http://t.co/3LbglH7TQq Vote Corbyn: stop this nonsense
"My only worry is that Corbs may prove massively more popular with the wider electorate than anyone ever envisaged....."
I was introduced to an 86 year old woman in a cafe this morning with a strong German/Austrian accent. She came to the UK from Vienna in '48 and regaled me with stories of how the Austrians were worse than the Germans and how to this day they're still racists who refuse to accept their history.
She felt great affection for the English. For their friendliness and lack of corruption. She also hated the Tories with a passion almost equalling her loathing for her ex compatriots. She joined the Lib Dems because of Blair and has stuffed envelopes for them when required ever since.
She said if Corbyn won the leadership she would rejoin Labour and die happy!
It almost tempted me to pay my £3
Shame that she didn't recognise:
- it was a Tory administration that declared war on Germany - it was a Tory PM who won the war - the majority of her years of living in England have been under Tory rule
I'd be pretty thankful to the Tories in that situation.
Quite. It was the Jeremy Corbyn's of this world that were trying get on with Germany by appealing to the Nazis better nature. Just as the man himself does with Chavez and Hamas.
Hamas are just an armed group. Terrorists, revolutionaries, insurgents, freedom fighters - the designation is entirely subjective. Most of the groups we support in Syria are worse - and those are the nicer ones.
The designation is subjective but there's a clear difference between groups which are driven to use violence in an oppressive regime that offers no alternative but are willing to talk if that alternative is offered, and groups which use violence as a means of imposing a settlement on a people.
No there isn't. The degree to which a regime is oppressive is also entirely subjective.
Talking about Christianity, as someone who generally mocks religion, can I say, the teacher stabbed in Bradford, using his faith, has shown dignity and forgiveness towards the kid that tried to kill him/wound him that I probably would never be able to show.
What links this young kid and lee rigbys murderers more than their religion is their heavy cannabis use
@pulpstar Glad you've kept a record - I wrote it down somewhere but it was so long ago that I have lost the details. I really never thought it would be Corbyn that beat Burnham - I had in mind Chuka Umunna or Alan Johnson i.e. a sensible candidate.
@JohnRentoul: "Life expectancy gap between rich & poor areas fell under [neoliberal crypto-Tories]" http://t.co/3LbglH7TQq Vote Corbyn: stop this nonsense
If the fading star of Boris wants to shine again it is obvious what he should do.
He'll do nothing. A bit of huffing and puffing, and then back to his other jobs.
He'll do nothing as there's nothing that can be done , at least safely. If you get rid of the drivers, then they'll just have to be replaced with DLR-style 'train captains' / 'Passenger Service Agent', who'll just go on strike.
Is that right, Mr. J? I am fairly certain I have travelled on the DLR when there was nobody in the front cab? Whether one needs "rain captains"/"passenger service agents" or, as we used to call them, "guards", is a matter for local legislation not safety. The metro-thing in Miami (aka the Mugger Mover) never had them and I am sure there are other metro systems around the word that don't either.
I remember when it was suggested that the London Underground could function quite safely without guards. There was hell to pay, but it happened eventually and even the RMT is not campaigning to bring them back. Drivers will go the same way.
Crikey, my son and I have a bet on which driver of a road motor vehicle job will be the first to be rendered obsolete by the driverless technology Google and others now have under development. He, full of the idealism of youth, reckons it will be HGV drivers. I, being old and cynical, think it will be taxi drivers. I fully expect to be alive long enough to collect my winnings.
The skills required of London Underground drivers pale into insignificance in comparison to what Google have already achieved. They will be gone inside 10 years.
Yep, it's right. They don't have to be in the front cab, and will usually be found with their keys ready to open / close the doors.
As for Google: AIUI they've done little except clock up hundreds of thousands of miles on freeways, with very little complex inner-city driving. Smoke 'n mirrors.
@JohnRentoul: "Life expectancy gap between rich & poor areas fell under [neoliberal crypto-Tories]" http://t.co/3LbglH7TQq Vote Corbyn: stop this nonsense
Don't know whether this has already been mentioned, but it seems that Kids Company may have been running unregulated schools. This would be a criminal offence, if true.
I though the allegation of the day regarding that so-called charity was that two of the trustees had children on the payroll to the tune of fifty grand. That is just so mind-bogglingly wrong that, if it were true, one would hope that said trustees would be dropped from any and all other posts they may have and be shunned from polite society. They will not be of course and the whole KC debacle will be brushed under the carpet - far too many of the "great and the good" and friends of the "great and the good" are involved.
What's astonishing is that there are so many issues, and that none of them surfaced before the charity went tits up.
They did but much like Mr Maxwell, whom she increasingly seems to resemble, CB was adept at using expensive lawyers to quash any unflattering stories.
"My only worry is that Corbs may prove massively more popular with the wider electorate than anyone ever envisaged....."
I was introduced to an 86 year old woman in a cafe this morning with a strong German/Austrian accent. She came to the UK from Vienna in '48 and regaled me with stories of how the Austrians were worse than the Germans and how to this day they're still racists who refuse to accept their history.
She felt great affection for the English. For their friendliness and lack of corruption. She also hated the Tories with a passion almost equalling her loathing for her ex compatriots. She joined the Lib Dems because of Blair and has stuffed envelopes for them when required ever since.
She said if Corbyn won the leadership she would rejoin Labour and die happy!
It almost tempted me to pay my £3
Shame that she didn't recognise:
- it was a Tory administration that declared war on Germany - it was a Tory PM who won the war - the majority of her years of living in England have been under Tory rule
I'd be pretty thankful to the Tories in that situation.
Quite. It was the Jeremy Corbyn's of this world that were trying get on with Germany by appealing to the Nazis better nature. Just as the man himself does with Chavez and Hamas.
Hamas are just an armed group. Terrorists, revolutionaries, insurgents, freedom fighters - the designation is entirely subjective. Most of the groups we support in Syria are worse - and those are the nicer ones.
The designation is subjective but there's a clear difference between groups which are driven to use violence in an oppressive regime that offers no alternative but are willing to talk if that alternative is offered, and groups which use violence as a means of imposing a settlement on a people.
No there isn't. The degree to which a regime is oppressive is also entirely subjective.
Comments
I know it's being greedy so soon after a GE and the very entertaining Labour contest (I hope the next Tory one is this good, the LD one was so sombre due to how bad a situation there are in that it wasn't fun), but I want somew major shifts!
Also, are the LDs officially back to just being Liberals, hence being LIB?
Yvette Cooper needs to step up her campaign if she is to win the contest to become Labour's next leader, ex-cabinet minister Peter Hain has said.
He told the BBC he had switched his support from Andy Burnham to the Pontefract and Castleford MP.
http://bbc.in/1J1KDi6
I wouldn't be surprised if the figure wasn't 25-27% by the time of next year's local elections.
Like Jesus Christ and Julius Caesar, he has the same initials.
Having the initials is the sign of greatness
This leadership campaign seems designed to test the old saw about all publicity being good publicity to destruction.
Presumably JC supports the new tube strikes....???
What they think will happen is a huge chunk of the Con to UKIP switchers will go back to the Tories, and the Tories will be polling in the mid 40s.
Do you think that's possible?
EDIT - but perhaps he has most in common with John Clare, an incurable romantic lamenting how much better things were in the good ol' days.
@montie not sure I'd want to go there. Very risky polling it, particularly in current rather anti-polling environment.
To the tune of madonnas vogue
He will have simple (and plausible) solutions to very difficult problems.
There is not a problem out there that cant be solved by gigantic dollops of public money (the argument will go), even those problems that are quite obviously only exist because of too many dollops of public money, will again, only be solved be even more.
As I said, he will get a bump in the polls, and if the country enters into a recession or another financial crisis expect him to have significant poll leads.
It will all crumble away in the build up to 2020, but not until then.
Aided and abetted by the Tories tearing themselves over the EU and the economy going south in this parliament.
Bar Owen and a handful of no-names, almost everyone thinks it's an impending disaster to elect Corbyn.
And yet here we are. IDS had nothing on this. He was just the wrong man for the job, not a throwback loony.
Now I'm being picky, of course.
Auto-correct is the bane of my life
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/631121092309086208
On the run up to the GE there were according to the pollsters two opposite and mutually exclusive movements happening amongst the voters. One group of polling companies detected a movement from Labour towards the Conservatives whilst at the same time another group detected a movement from the Conservatives towards Labour. By polling day all these companies' figures had coalesced at about the same place, the election was too close to call but probably a Labour minority government.
They were, of course, all wrong but that wouldn't matter as they were ALL wrong, and probably nobody would remember the contradictory trends. Except that one company, probably inadvertently, let the cat out of the bag. We had a poll, they said, which was remarkably close to the actual result, but we didn't publish it because it didn't "feel right". And there you have British polling fully exposed. Never mind, the careful attempts to obtain a representative sample, never mind the clever "scientific" weighting (a process that looks ever more dubious), if the answer doesn't come out "right" well then it can get sat on (or perhaps re-weighted).
So Labour on 31 does seem eminently possible. Labour on anything anyone is willing to pay for or which "seems right" to a polling company is eminently possible.
It was a very early version, but even so...
I do think Labour on 31 is entirely credible. It's a tiny bit up on the General Election, which wasn't so long ago.
Jasper Carrot.....
"All being well, I should be coming home tonight"
Except the phone turned it into
"All being well, I should be coming good tonight"
My sweet innocent mother, rang me up and said, what did your text mean, that you'd be coming good tonight
And wasn't Churchill leading a coalition government during the war? In any case, a single man did not singlehandedly 'win the war'. Unless you really believe that Russian and American involvement was minor.
A majority of her years may well have been under Tory rule, but it doesn't mean that those years have been beneficial for her personally, or indeed the country.
I once managed to autocorrect all mentions of *initiative* into *natives* in a £50m bid document.
....well, Ave It will like the Bootle result!
That's even better than the time at Aberystwyth that a young female student, who had much enjoyed herself with her boyfriend the previous night, sent him an email saying how much she had enjoyed herself and how much she loved him. Unfortunately she forgot that student emails had a number on the end, and sent it to a very senior member of staff instead.
EDIT - I was not involved, in any way, shape or form. I just got told about it by one of the people who WAS involved.
@Plato's early venison and bonds going native are very impressive too!
The team doctor for the U.S. squad at last week’s World Junior Rowing Championships says she believes 13 team members suffered stomach illnesses after competing in the polluted Rio lake that will host aquatic events at next year’s Olympics.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2015/08/11/u-s-rowing-coach-says-american-team-got-sick-from-rios-contaminated-water/
Of course YG could be wrong. But that seems doubtful.
I think that in some Conservative-held marginals, though, UKIP supporters would switch to the Conservatives to ensure Labour didn't get back in. In turn, I think some Conservatives would switch behind UKIP to knock out Labour, in seats where UKIP are in second place to Labour, and the Conservatives are third.
Twenty-eight athletes who competed at the 2005 and 2007 World Championships
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/33867962
In other words most likely to be now retired / over the hill athletes then...just a bit of a minor oversight there by the IAAF.
We'll then have a few years to wait for the party to be over.
If Corybn becomes leader, then it will be a sea change in British politics. That will end up changing the tory party as well, it has to.
Campbell v Corbyn.
What fun.
As for Google: AIUI they've done little except clock up hundreds of thousands of miles on freeways, with very little complex inner-city driving. Smoke 'n mirrors.
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/530276/hidden-obstacles-for-googles-self-driving-cars/
Nuneaton and Bedworth to NOC....
@HTScotPol: SNP had record £7m income last year and still ended up £500k in the red, new accounts show http://t.co/Kj2upUZEjR http://t.co/qLdGfiRCGh