I don't know what's holding his price up. Corbyn should be odds-on now IMHO
There's an expectation among punters that Labour surely won't be that bat shit crazy. Mind you he is up against Andy Burnham who is more tit than titan
This is an internal battle, and most punters are outsiders in this, that is why Liz Kendall was the favourite even though it was clear that no one would vote for her from early on.
Also a 2016 update (there is a lot of news coming out today from america, after all it's Monday), Fox News has surrendered to Trump:
This was a big personal victory for Trump. Many said that Fox News would crush him and in the space of a weekend they actually surrendered to him.
In 2012 betting on the GOP nomination, it was profitable, to lay the loon, as the GOP has a history of choosing, relatively speaking, the most centrist candidate.
I wonder if that strategy will be profitable in 2016?
I think it was because the "loons" always didn't have the money, the "loons" almost always make it in the GOP but never win it because of lack of money. Imagine Pat Buchanan with 10 billion dollars:
""There is a religious war going on in our country for the soul of America. It is a cultural war, as critical to the kind of nation we will one day be as was the Cold War itself."
"The agenda Bill and Hillary would impose on America — abortion on demand, a litmus test for the Supreme Court, homosexual rights, discrimination against religious schools, women in combat units — that's change, all right. But it is not the kind of change America wants. It is not the kind of change America needs. And it is not the kind of change we can tolerate in a nation that we still call God's country."
Healey, Ken Clarke, David Miliband all lost their party leadership elections and would have been far more dangerous opponents in the general election. However, if members are in an ideological mood they will vote for IDS and Corbyn regardless
All of them tolerable by the general public (expect David Miliband for huge Iraq War baggage) but unpopular inside their own parties.
A 17% difference in three weeks seems a bit unrealistic. The killer figures for me were the new sign ups earlier in the week, they point conclusively to a Corbyn win. Labour could have done with 'pausing' the contest before this poll when the perception was that it was seemingly quite close after second preferences.
I don't know what's holding his price up. Corbyn should be odds-on now IMHO
There's an expectation among punters that Labour surely won't be that bat shit crazy. Mind you he is up against Andy Burnham who is more tit than titan
This is an internal battle, and most punters are outsiders in this, that is why Liz Kendall was the favourite even though it was clear that no one would vote for her from early on.
Also a 2016 update (there is a lot of news coming out today from america, after all it's Monday), Fox News has surrendered to Trump:
This was a big personal victory for Trump. Many said that Fox News would crush him and in the space of a weekend they actually surrendered to him.
In 2012 betting on the GOP nomination, it was profitable, to lay the loon, as the GOP has a history of choosing, relatively speaking, the most centrist candidate.
I wonder if that strategy will be profitable in 2016?
I think it was because the "loons" always didn't have the money, the "loons" almost always make it in the GOP but never win it because of lack of money. Imagine Pat Buchanan with 10 billion dollars:
""There is a religious war going on in our country for the soul of America. It is a cultural war, as critical to the kind of nation we will one day be as was the Cold War itself."
"The agenda Bill and Hillary would impose on America — abortion on demand, a litmus test for the Supreme Court, homosexual rights, discrimination against religious schools, women in combat units — that's change, all right. But it is not the kind of change America wants. It is not the kind of change America needs. And it is not the kind of change we can tolerate in a nation that we still call God's country."
So Labour will have a Corbyn/Watson team. So far by the evidence of campaigning they are certainly the most competent among those running. It will be interesting to see how they measure up with the other party leaders from now on.
Watson's the weak link. He's already had to step down from front / shadow front bench roles on two occasions for deep Labour internal politicking. If he becomes deputy leader, I foresee it happening again.
He's Mandelson, but without the likeability or skill.
On any conceivable MoE, Corbyn easily walks this. Yet his price is still hovering just under Evens on Betfair.
Free money. I'd be backing down to 1.25 now.
He might win this on first preferences at this rate.
Interesting you say 1.25 Casino.
That's the price Ladbrokes will give you on him leading after the first round. No second preference stuff to worry about.
I think everyone's still spooked by the GE experience. But:
(1) This electorate is the Labour party, bolstered by the self-selecting fantasists who've chosen to join them (2) This lead is so whoppingly large - much, much greater than expected - that under any conceivable margin of error, Corbyn would still win convincingly. Over 95% of the time.
So you're betting on a <1:20 chance that it's wrong. Unless YouGov have got their sampling and method totally and utterly wrong, I'll take that.
This is consistent with every single other piece of evidence we've had on the Corbopalypse. We should stop viewing these polls through the prism of the GE2015 UK result and more the GE2015 Scotland result.
I'll put this in a thread header - if Mike allows me to another one soon after last time's - but I'd say backing Goldsmith (plenty of cash up at 3.25) is now a strong option.
The way I see it, Labour have a fifty percent or more chance of electing Corbyn - which will boost Zac's chances considerably. Jowell polls the best in London and they hardly see eye to eye on anything.
Even if they don't, the 31% chance implied seems about right for Not Corbyn and Jowell, it seems a smidgen too low for Khan and considerably too lower for Abbott (although I doubt she'll win if Corbyn doesn't.
So come the big weekend in September those odds can go out only slightly, but could come in very substantially.
Betting tip - probably worth a trading on Fiorina, currently at 20 on Betfair.
I will be covering myself on Fiorina, having taken the plunge a couple of months ago at 160, although could still be value here as only woman and fiesty (Veep material?).
On any conceivable MoE, Corbyn easily walks this. Yet his price is still hovering just under Evens on Betfair.
Free money. I'd be backing down to 1.25 now.
He might win this on first preferences at this rate.
Interesting you say 1.25 Casino.
That's the price Ladbrokes will give you on him leading after the first round. No second preference stuff to worry about.
I think everyone's still spooked by the GE experience. But:
(1) This electorate is the Labour party, bolstered by the self-selecting fantasists who've chosen to join them (2) This lead is so whoppingly large - much, much greater than expected - that under any conceivable margin of error, Corbyn would still win convincingly. Over 95% of the time.
So you're betting on a <1:20 chance that it's wrong. Unless YouGov have got their sampling and method totally and utterly wrong, I'll take that.
This is consistent with every single other piece of evidence we've had on the Corbopalypse. We should stop viewing these polls through the prism of the GE2015 UK result and more the GE2015 Scotland result.</p>
Absolutely right. And as you say it isn't just the polls. Corbyn leads in CLP nominations, a strong indicator last time around, and the surge of new members should boost him. These polls aren't isolated data points, they fit with other sources of data including nominations which are (fairly) hard evidence (as they involve people having actually voted).
It's been out over half-an-hour, and yet Corbyn is still available at 1.73.
Insane. Totally insane. Fill yer boots (or up to your daily Betfair deposit limit, which I've sadly now reached)
I'm not entirely convinced. One poll, how do they reach the people who can vote, everyone is on holiday etc etc. And... will someone now drop out and help save their party?
I'll put this in a thread header - if Mike allows me to another one soon after last time's - but I'd say backing Goldsmith (plenty of cash up at 3.25) is now a strong option.
The way I see it, Labour have a fifty percent or more chance of electing Corbyn - which will boost Zac's chances considerably. Jowell polls the best in London and they hardly see eye to eye on anything.
Even if they don't, the 31% chance implied seems about right for Not Corbyn and Jowell, it seems a smidgen too low for Khan and considerably too lower for Abbott (although I doubt she'll win if Corbyn doesn't.
So come the big weekend in September those odds can go out only slightly, but could come in very substantially.
Voters are quite capable of distinguishing between Jowell and Corbyn, they can even vote for her for Mayor and Tory for the Assembly
Those that watched Monday night football will have noticed that Corbynite fellow traveller James McLean got booed so badly by both sets of supporters that he was hooked at half time.
Popular my arsenal.
It's worth nothing that he publicly supported pIRA and disrespected British Soldiers in November 2014 and continued playing with some but not overwhelming protest.
Only when he disrespects Liz Windsor does the English public really turn on him.
Such a servile nation, demonstrating an utterly repugnant culture of serfdom.
Nah his antics were under the radar but now he's pooped where he eats - hates the crown loves the half crown - he'll be playing at Torbett Towers by next August.
It's been out over half-an-hour, and yet Corbyn is still available at 1.73.
Insane. Totally insane. Fill yer boots (or up to your daily Betfair deposit limit, which I've sadly now reached)
I'm not entirely convinced. One poll, how do they reach the people who can vote, everyone is on holiday etc etc. And... will someone now drop out and help save their party?
It won't make a difference if someone drops out, that election is under AV and besides Corbyn gets a majority of votes anyway and wins on the first round.
Interesting, age seems to make almost no difference and yet we keep being told the youth are rising up. Labour members who are old enough to remember the 1980s are pitching in for JC. This makes me a little bit more sceptical about the poll.
Problem is the bit the pollster got wrong is the hard lefties Milifans were the ones overrepresented and who just didn't vote. Who wants to bank on that again ?
Killer stat: Corbyn gets 67% of female votes if it goes to second preferences against Cooper who despite being a woman gets fewer female votes than male ones.
It's been out over half-an-hour, and yet Corbyn is still available at 1.73.
Insane. Totally insane. Fill yer boots (or up to your daily Betfair deposit limit, which I've sadly now reached)
I'm not entirely convinced. One poll, how do they reach the people who can vote, everyone is on holiday etc etc. And... will someone now drop out and help save their party?
I'm glad there are many gamblers like you. Good for my wallet!
Killer stat: Corbyn gets 67% of female votes if it goes to second preferences against Cooper who despite being a woman gets fewer female votes than male ones.
I'm not really surprised since Corbyn is the candidate who has been making all the running in August and really does have an impressive GOTV team. For what it's worth, several friends have decided after much hesitation to go for Cooper, but I've gone the other way and I'm leaning Corbyn myself. I think that if he's going to win it's important that he has a good mandate, so we avoid squabbling over whether a Tory in Hemel Hempstead might have sneaked in a vote.
It's worth noting that the huge increase of membership is contrary to most recent trends for all parties. The only recent comparable rise has been the leap in SNP membership...
Healey, Ken Clarke, David Miliband all lost their party leadership elections and would have been far more dangerous opponents in the general election. However, if members are in an ideological mood they will vote for IDS and Corbyn regardless
All of them tolerable by the general public (expect David Miliband for huge Iraq War baggage) but unpopular inside their own parties.
David Miliband still had more people saying they would vote for Labour under his leadership than any other of the present leadership contendors in the last yougov of the public
Sanders has slashed Hillary's lead in New Hampshire though to less than 10%
Hilary may not win every single state, but the fact that Sanders can only challenge at the moment in Vermont and neighbouring states is a sign of her strength. Only one non-POTUS has won every state in the primaries (Gore in 2000), judging Clinton by that standard is unnecessarily high.
It's been out over half-an-hour, and yet Corbyn is still available at 1.73.
Insane. Totally insane. Fill yer boots (or up to your daily Betfair deposit limit, which I've sadly now reached)
I'm not entirely convinced. One poll, how do they reach the people who can vote, everyone is on holiday etc etc. And... will someone now drop out and help save their party?
It isn't only one poll, Corbyn has had massive leads in three or four now - and growing every time. He has a 5:1 advantage in Union endorsements. Leads in CLPs. What more do you want?
I'm not saying he will 100% win, but I am saying he will 75% or 80% win. And that means massive value is out there.
It's been out over half-an-hour, and yet Corbyn is still available at 1.73.
Insane. Totally insane. Fill yer boots (or up to your daily Betfair deposit limit, which I've sadly now reached)
I'm not entirely convinced. One poll, how do they reach the people who can vote, everyone is on holiday etc etc. And... will someone now drop out and help save their party?
I'm glad there are many gamblers like you. Good for my wallet!
You've probably had my money already (effectively) then, as I am heavily on Cooper :-)
I don't know what's holding his price up. Corbyn should be odds-on now IMHO
There's an expectation among punters that Labour surely won't be that bat shit crazy. Mind you he is up against Andy Burnham who is more tit than titan
This is an internal battle, and most punters are outsiders in this, that is why Liz Kendall was the favourite even though it was clear that no one would vote for her from early on.
Also a 2016 update (there is a lot of news coming out today from america, after all it's Monday), Fox News has surrendered to Trump:
This was a big personal victory for Trump. Many said that Fox News would crush him and in the space of a weekend they actually surrendered to him.
In 2012 betting on the GOP nomination, it was profitable, to lay the loon, as the GOP has a history of choosing, relatively speaking, the most centrist candidate.
I wonder if that strategy will be profitable in 2016?
I think it was because the "loons" always didn't have the money, the "loons" almost always make it in the GOP but never win it because of lack of money. Imagine Pat Buchanan with 10 billion dollars:
""There is a religious war going on in our country for the soul of America. It is a cultural war, as critical to the kind of nation we will one day be as was the Cold War itself."
"The agenda Bill and Hillary would impose on America — abortion on demand, a litmus test for the Supreme Court, homosexual rights, discrimination against religious schools, women in combat units — that's change, all right. But it is not the kind of change America wants. It is not the kind of change America needs. And it is not the kind of change we can tolerate in a nation that we still call God's country."
I'm not really surprised since Corbyn is the candidate who has been making all the running in August and really does have an impressive GOTV team. For what it's worth, several friends have decided after much hesitation to go for Cooper, but I've gone the other way and I'm leaning Corbyn myself. I think that if he's going to win it's important that he has a good mandate, so we avoid squabbling over whether a Tory in Hemel Hempstead might have sneaked in a vote.
It's worth noting that the huge increase of membership is contrary to most recent trends for all parties. The only recent comparable rise has been the leap in SNP membership...
I'm not really surprised since Corbyn is the candidate who has been making all the running in August and really does have an impressive GOTV team. For what it's worth, several friends have decided after much hesitation to go for Cooper, but I've gone the other way and I'm leaning Corbyn myself. I think that if he's going to win it's important that he has a good mandate, so we avoid squabbling over whether a Tory in Hemel Hempstead might have sneaked in a vote.
It's worth noting that the huge increase of membership is contrary to most recent trends for all parties. The only recent comparable rise has been the leap in SNP membership...
Dear God - sounds like you have ruled out running in 2020 then !?
I'm not really surprised since Corbyn is the candidate who has been making all the running in August and really does have an impressive GOTV team. For what it's worth, several friends have decided after much hesitation to go for Cooper, but I've gone the other way and I'm leaning Corbyn myself. I think that if he's going to win it's important that he has a good mandate, so we avoid squabbling over whether a Tory in Hemel Hempstead might have sneaked in a vote.
It's worth noting that the huge increase of membership is contrary to most recent trends for all parties. The only recent comparable rise has been the leap in SNP membership...
I think that explains it.
Labour think Corbyn is the English Nicola Sturgeon, and that the rUK electorate will be as enthralled by him as the Scots are by her.
Are Corbyn supporters aware of the sort of constituencies where the next election will be decided? Places like Gloucester, Worcester, Swindon, Nuneaton, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Stourbridge, etc.
Those that watched Monday night football will have noticed that Corbynite fellow traveller James McLean got booed so badly by both sets of supporters that he was hooked at half time.
Popular my arsenal.
It's worth nothing that he publicly supported pIRA and disrespected British Soldiers in November 2014 and continued playing with some but not overwhelming protest.
Only when he disrespects Liz Windsor does the English public really turn on him.
Such a servile nation, demonstrating an utterly repugnant culture of serfdom.
Nah his antics were under the radar but now he's pooped where he eats - hates the crown loves the half crown - he'll be playing at Torbett Towers by next August.
Apparently the West Brom fee was only £1.5m and I can't believe his wages would be all that extravagent so if they wanted him they could have got him in the summer. Maybe both he and the fiddlers are thinking they can get him to the paedodrome on loan and only end up stumping a portion of the wages.
It's been out over half-an-hour, and yet Corbyn is still available at 1.73.
Insane. Totally insane. Fill yer boots (or up to your daily Betfair deposit limit, which I've sadly now reached)
I'm not entirely convinced. One poll, how do they reach the people who can vote, everyone is on holiday etc etc. And... will someone now drop out and help save their party?
I'm glad there are many gamblers like you. Good for my wallet!
You've probably had my money already (effectively) then, as I am heavily on Cooper :-)
I read that the majority of Labour's membership (before the latest changes) was in London, Corbyn according to this gets 62% of 1st preference votes in London.
Also applying the GE model that the rich and the old have higher turnout still doesn't make much of a difference, he gets 51% of ABC1 and 49% with over 60's.
Are Corbyn supporters aware of the sort of constituencies where the next election will be decided? Places like Gloucester, Worcester, Swindon, Nuneaton, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Stourbridge, etc.
But Yvette Cooper's actions seem to indicate that she thinks she's in a better position than the poll suggests. Wouldn't she be doing just a bit more running if she thought she was on 19% first preferences and nowhere near in the run off?
So Labour will have a Corbyn/Watson team. So far by the evidence of campaigning they are certainly the most competent among those running. It will be interesting to see how they measure up with the other party leaders from now on.
Watson's the weak link. He's already had to step down from front / shadow front bench roles on two occasions for deep Labour internal politicking. If he becomes deputy leader, I foresee it happening again. He's Mandelson, but without the likeability or skill.
Actually I think Watson would fancy himself as the man pulling Corbyn's strings. Should be interesting because neither are as sharp as they would like to think. Will Watson take a leaf out of the SNPs umm... parliamentary ethics code ??
Those that watched Monday night football will have noticed that Corbynite fellow traveller James McLean got booed so badly by both sets of supporters that he was hooked at half time.
Popular my arsenal.
It's worth nothing that he publicly supported pIRA and disrespected British Soldiers in November 2014 and continued playing with some but not overwhelming protest.
Only when he disrespects Liz Windsor does the English public really turn on him.
Such a servile nation, demonstrating an utterly repugnant culture of serfdom.
Nah his antics were under the radar but now he's pooped where he eats - hates the crown loves the half crown - he'll be playing at Torbett Towers by next August.
Apparently the West Brom fee was only £1.5m and I can't believe his wages would be all that extravagent so if they wanted him they could have got him in the summer. Maybe both he and the fiddlers are thinking they can get him to the paedodrome on loan and only end up stumping a portion of the wages.
I think Pulis underestimated what an utter nugget he is - must be regretting it now.
Have we any inkling of Jezzas thoughts on royalty ? Is he a fan ?
Are Corbyn supporters aware of the sort of constituencies where the next election will be decided? Places like Gloucester, Worcester, Swindon, Nuneaton, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Stourbridge, etc.
Winning isn't important according to leading Corbynite, Brian Eno, among many others.
Are Corbyn supporters aware of the sort of constituencies where the next election will be decided? Places like Gloucester, Worcester, Swindon, Nuneaton, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Stourbridge, etc.
They couldn't give a toss.
They're more upset by the destruction of their base in Scotland, and telling the English electorate what they think of them, than winning power.
But Yvette Cooper's actions seem to indicate that she thinks she's in a better position than the poll suggests. Wouldn't she be doing just a bit more running if she thought she was on 19% first preferences and nowhere near in the run off?
I believe she took a holiday. The candidates had apparently all agreed a week or two of low campaigning so they could take their kids on holiday etc. Appears that no one stuck to this deal.
Are Corbyn supporters aware of the sort of constituencies where the next election will be decided? Places like Gloucester, Worcester, Swindon, Nuneaton, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Stourbridge, etc.
They couldn't give a toss.
They're more upset by the destruction of their base in Scotland, and telling the English electorate what they think of them, than winning power.
No, as most of them live in Camden and Islington and are more likely to have been to Cuba than Nuneaton and Stourbridge!
I'm not really surprised since Corbyn is the candidate who has been making all the running in August and really does have an impressive GOTV team. For what it's worth, several friends have decided after much hesitation to go for Cooper, but I've gone the other way and I'm leaning Corbyn myself. I think that if he's going to win it's important that he has a good mandate, so we avoid squabbling over whether a Tory in Hemel Hempstead might have sneaked in a vote.
It's worth noting that the huge increase of membership is contrary to most recent trends for all parties. The only recent comparable rise has been the leap in SNP membership...
Listen to your friends :-)
If Labour are not going for Burnham or Kendall they may as well go for Corbyn, he would at least help them in Scotland, Cooper seems to poll pretty poorly north and south of the border
@DAaronovitch: Can it really be true that the Labour Party is weeks away from electing Don Quixote and Sancho Panza to lead it?
"to dream the impossible dream..."
I am so jubilant at the moment. Finally, the Labour party is to be destroyed, or at least turned into the rump socialist party it ought to be. Our thanks goes to UKIP, the SNP, the Greens, and now of course the thousands who have chipped in £3 to help finish the job.
@DAaronovitch: Can it really be true that the Labour Party is weeks away from electing Don Quixote and Sancho Panza to lead it?
"to dream the impossible dream..."
I am so jubilant at the moment. Finally, the Labour party is to be destroyed, or at least turned into the rump socialist party it ought to be. Our thanks goes to UKIP, the SNP, the Greens, and now of course the thousands who have chipped in £3 to help finish the job.
Peter Hitchen's prophecy is coming true! I always thought the Tories would be the first ones to go though...
Those that watched Monday night football will have noticed that Corbynite fellow traveller James McLean got booed so badly by both sets of supporters that he was hooked at half time.
Popular my arsenal.
It's worth nothing that he publicly supported pIRA and disrespected British Soldiers in November 2014 and continued playing with some but not overwhelming protest.
Only when he disrespects Liz Windsor does the English public really turn on him.
Such a servile nation, demonstrating an utterly repugnant culture of serfdom.
Nah his antics were under the radar but now he's pooped where he eats - hates the crown loves the half crown - he'll be playing at Torbett Towers by next August.
Apparently the West Brom fee was only £1.5m and I can't believe his wages would be all that extravagent so if they wanted him they could have got him in the summer. Maybe both he and the fiddlers are thinking they can get him to the paedodrome on loan and only end up stumping a portion of the wages.
I think Pulis underestimated what an utter nugget he is - must be regretting it now.
Have we any inkling of Jezzas thoughts on royalty ? Is he a fan ?
Sanders has slashed Hillary's lead in New Hampshire though to less than 10%
Hilary may not win every single state, but the fact that Sanders can only challenge at the moment in Vermont and neighbouring states is a sign of her strength. Only one non-POTUS has won every state in the primaries (Gore in 2000), judging Clinton by that standard is unnecessarily high.
It's been out over half-an-hour, and yet Corbyn is still available at 1.73.
Insane. Totally insane. Fill yer boots (or up to your daily Betfair deposit limit, which I've sadly now reached)
I'm not entirely convinced. One poll, how do they reach the people who can vote, everyone is on holiday etc etc. And... will someone now drop out and help save their party?
It isn't only one poll, Corbyn has had massive leads in three or four now - and growing every time. He has a 5:1 advantage in Union endorsements. Leads in CLPs. What more do you want?
I'm not saying he will 100% win, but I am saying he will 75% or 80% win. And that means massive value is out there.
No, but if she loses New Hampshire anything can happen
The Kendall video was hilarious. "I can pace around a darkened room looking like I need the loo, then demonstrate my keyboard skills while staring at a monitor..." Leadership material - not...
You are being excessively harsh on Kendal as all the candidates look useless. That said, the only quasi rational almost normal person left gasping for breath and crawling to the finish line is, much to my surprise, Cooper. It does not say much for her or her competition that I think she has achieved this dubious distinction by doing absolutely nothing.
@DAaronovitch: Can it really be true that the Labour Party is weeks away from electing Don Quixote and Sancho Panza to lead it?
"to dream the impossible dream..."
I am so jubilant at the moment. Finally, the Labour party is to be destroyed, or at least turned into the rump socialist party it ought to be. Our thanks goes to UKIP, the SNP, the Greens, and now of course the thousands who have chipped in £3 to help finish the job.
Subsample notes: - The selectorate is dubious whether Labour would win with Corbyn (47-42 think not) but that's not true of Corbyn supporters (70-19). Thus a fifth of Corbyn's supporters don't think he'd win but plan to suppoort him anyway. That isn't decisive (even if all of these defected he'd still win) but it shows the limits of "vote X because they've got a better chance of winning". The selectorate also have doubts about Cooper (45-45) but think Burnham would win an election (52-38). There is huge scepticism in all quarters of the poll about Kendall (19-71) except her own supporters. - Support for Corbyn is highest in London (62%), followed by "rest of south" and Scotland (55 and 53) and highest with newer members: 63% among post-2015 members, 52% among those who joined after Ed became leader, 39% among pre-Ed members. Corbyn would narrowly lose if nobody was allowed to vote except those who were members before 2010. - There isn't a big age factor - Corbyn wins easily in all age groups.
Are Corbyn supporters aware of the sort of constituencies where the next election will be decided? Places like Gloucester, Worcester, Swindon, Nuneaton, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Stourbridge, etc.
They couldn't give a toss.
They're more upset by the destruction of their base in Scotland, and telling the English electorate what they think of them, than winning power.
No, as most of them live in Camden and Islington and are more likely to have been to Cuba than Nuneaton and Stourbridge!
This is actually probably the truth. Which is why Labour are finished.
On Youtube I've just watched the Honda advert ("to dream the impossible dream") and now I'm on to The Final Countdown.
Subsample notes: - The selectorate is dubious whether Labour would win with Corbyn (47-42 think not) but that's not true of Corbyn supporters (70-19). Thus a fifth of Corbyn's supporters don't think he'd win but plan to suppoort him anyway. That isn't decisive (even if all of these defected he'd still win) but it shows the limits of "vote X because they've got a better chance of winning". The selectorate also have doubts about Cooper (45-45) but think Burnham would win an election (52-38). There is huge scepticism in all quarters of the poll about Kendall (19-71) except her own supporters. - Support for Corbyn is highest in London (62%), followed by "rest of south" and Scotland (55 and 53) and highest with newer members: 63% among post-2015 members, 52% among those who joined after Ed became leader, 39% among pre-Ed members. Corbyn would narrowly lose if nobody was allowed to vote except those who were members before 2010. - There isn't a big age factor - Corbyn wins easily in all age groups.
Is it still the case that a significant percentage of Labour members live in London? Which might go a long way to explain how that metropolitan elite is driving the Corbyn lead!
Comments
JCIDILLMPM
Jeremy Corbyn Is Different, Is Labour Leader, Maybe PM.
As I've said all along, the Conservatives may not be taking him seriously enough at this stage.
"I can pace around a darkened room looking like I need the loo, then demonstrate my keyboard skills while staring at a monitor..."
Leadership material - not...
He's Mandelson, but without the likeability or skill.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html
Main beneficiaries are Carson, Cruz and especially Fiorina. Neither Walker nor Bush making progress. Clinton steady with a 2-1 lead over Sanders - no movement at all there:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
Care to comment on the yougov Corbyn stuff?
(1) This electorate is the Labour party, bolstered by the self-selecting fantasists who've chosen to join them
(2) This lead is so whoppingly large - much, much greater than expected - that under any conceivable margin of error, Corbyn would still win convincingly. Over 95% of the time.
So you're betting on a <1:20 chance that it's wrong. Unless YouGov have got their sampling and method totally and utterly wrong, I'll take that.
This is consistent with every single other piece of evidence we've had on the Corbopalypse. We should stop viewing these polls through the prism of the GE2015 UK result and more the GE2015 Scotland result.
If Corbyn wins on first preferences, AV becomes rather pointless.
The way I see it, Labour have a fifty percent or more chance of electing Corbyn - which will boost Zac's chances considerably. Jowell polls the best in London and they hardly see eye to eye on anything.
Even if they don't, the 31% chance implied seems about right for Not Corbyn and Jowell, it seems a smidgen too low for Khan and considerably too lower for Abbott (although I doubt she'll win if Corbyn doesn't.
So come the big weekend in September those odds can go out only slightly, but could come in very substantially.
Insane. Totally insane. Fill yer boots (or up to your daily Betfair deposit limit, which I've sadly now reached)
1/2 Corbyn
3/1 Burnham
4/1 Cooper
100/1 Kendall http://t.co/Ln2Dj6ftKV
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/08/10/comment-corbyn-extends-lead/
'Roll up that map of British politics, it will not be wanted these ten years'
I will laugh my nipples of if he wins.
That's before you add in the Trade Union and £3 sign-ups, where he has even bigger leads.
"Pulpstar said:
Is there some sort of liveblog for Corbyn and his nominations ? I need to know whether to lay at 75s or try for shorter... "
"Tissue_Price said:
OK, £30 @ 100.0 on Corbyn. Trading bet, obvs..."
"EPG Posts: 980 June 3 Because he's not going to win."
It's worth noting that the huge increase of membership is contrary to most recent trends for all parties. The only recent comparable rise has been the leap in SNP membership...
I'm not saying he will 100% win, but I am saying he will 75% or 80% win. And that means massive value is out there.
I just meant Burnham's lead over Cooper was too little for comfort.
Although to be fair, as I understand it, evolution relies on great extinctions to make progress.
Labour think Corbyn is the English Nicola Sturgeon, and that the rUK electorate will be as enthralled by him as the Scots are by her.
Episode 1: "2007 - Helped into Power"
Narrated by Sam West.
On Freeview 12 "Yesterday Channel" right now
Also applying the GE model that the rich and the old have higher turnout still doesn't make much of a difference, he gets 51% of ABC1 and 49% with over 60's.
Should be interesting because neither are as sharp as they would like to think.
Will Watson take a leaf out of the SNPs umm... parliamentary ethics code ??
Have we any inkling of Jezzas thoughts on royalty ? Is he a fan ?
They're more upset by the destruction of their base in Scotland, and telling the English electorate what they think of them, than winning power.
Burnham
Yes 52%
No 38%
Cooper
Yes 45%
No 45%
Corbyn
Yes 42%
No 47%
Kendall
Yes 19%
No 71%
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/14x8p1al7n/TimesResults150810LabourMembers.pdf
A 20-32% lead though is difficult to ignore.
And on that goodnight.
Corbyn to win by a street.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfHnzYEHAow
Kendall doesn't look impressed though....
- The selectorate is dubious whether Labour would win with Corbyn (47-42 think not) but that's not true of Corbyn supporters (70-19). Thus a fifth of Corbyn's supporters don't think he'd win but plan to suppoort him anyway. That isn't decisive (even if all of these defected he'd still win) but it shows the limits of "vote X because they've got a better chance of winning". The selectorate also have doubts about Cooper (45-45) but think Burnham would win an election (52-38). There is huge scepticism in all quarters of the poll about Kendall (19-71) except her own supporters.
- Support for Corbyn is highest in London (62%), followed by "rest of south" and Scotland (55 and 53) and highest with newer members: 63% among post-2015 members, 52% among those who joined after Ed became leader, 39% among pre-Ed members. Corbyn would narrowly lose if nobody was allowed to vote except those who were members before 2010.
- There isn't a big age factor - Corbyn wins easily in all age groups.
On Youtube I've just watched the Honda advert ("to dream the impossible dream") and now I'm on to The Final Countdown.
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2015/08/detecting_betra.html
- both stabbers and stabbees increase politeness before the evil deed!