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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just a week to go before voting starts Corby is back as favourite

I’m not convinced that the bulk of the new names are necessarily part of the Corbyn camp. Many, I’m told, are former members who have now returned.

Read the full story here

DanSmith

Former members are going to skew left as well.

Philip_Thompson

Andy Burnham will never be leader. He's crap, he came fourth behind two Milibands and a Balls last time. He's crap who has lost the left to Corbyn. He's crap who won't get transfers from Kendall so won't even beat Cooper to the final round..

Andy Burnham is crap and will never be Labour Leader let alone PM.

Danny565

Speaking personally, I'll probably wait until the very last minute to send my vote in. I'm still totally undecided on whether to jump over the Corbyn precipice or not.

Toms

Yvette seems to be focussing on opposition politics. I'm convinced.

MonikerDiCanio

Surprised to see Kendall breaking 1%.

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy Burnham will never be leader. He's crap, he came fourth behind two Milibands and a Balls last time. He's crap who has lost the left to Corbyn. He's crap who won't get transfers from Kendall so won't even beat Cooper to the final round..

Andy Burnham is crap and will never be Labour Leader let alone PM.

Burnham has led every poll of the public so far. Yougov had him second to Corbyn on preferences. Reagan and John Howard and Mitterand and Chirac all lost earlier party leadership elections

Speedy

Corbyn so far is only one of the 4 that is campaigning and the only one that has shown competence, add his popularity inside the labour party about his policies and that he is not a plank of wood like the other 3 and voila he's the frontrunner.

He's winning because he's the only one actually running in the race.

rottenborough

Speedy said:

Corbyn so far is only one of the 4 that is campaigning and the only one that has shown competence, add his popularity inside the labour party about his policies and that he is not a plank of wood like the other 3 and voila he's the frontrunner.

He's winning because he's the only one actually running in the race.

It seems difficult to tell, unless one is deeply involved in the party. On the face of it all the media interest has been with Corbyn and he has done hundreds of rallies and so on.

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy Burnham will never be leader. He's crap, he came fourth behind two Milibands and a Balls last time. He's crap who has lost the left to Corbyn. He's crap who won't get transfers from Kendall so won't even beat Cooper to the final round..

Andy Burnham is crap and will never be Labour Leader let alone PM.

Burnham has led every poll of the public so far. Yougov had him second to Corbyn on preferences. Reagan and John Howard and Mitterand and Chirac all lost earlier party leadership elections

ABISCAWNBLLLAP?

HYUFD

Cornyn will come first in round 1, the question is can Burnham or Cooper beat him on preferences

rottenborough

Hitchhiker's Guide to Entryism:

http://labourlist.org/2015/08/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-labour-leadership-contest-and-entryism/

rottenborough

From LabourList:

Q. Is the process going to be postponed?

A. There are rumours that it could be, but nothing is set in stone.

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy Burnham will never be leader. He's crap, he came fourth behind two Milibands and a Balls last time. He's crap who has lost the left to Corbyn. He's crap who won't get transfers from Kendall so won't even beat Cooper to the final round..

Andy Burnham is crap and will never be Labour Leader let alone PM.

Burnham has led every poll of the public so far. Yougov had him second to Corbyn on preferences. Reagan and John Howard and Mitterand and Chirac all lost earlier party leadership elections

ABISCAWNBLLLAP?

ABISCCBYCJCOPGOPEUR

ydoethur

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy Burnham will never be leader. He's crap, he came fourth behind two Milibands and a Balls last time. He's crap who has lost the left to Corbyn. He's crap who won't get transfers from Kendall so won't even beat Cooper to the final round..

Andy Burnham is crap and will never be Labour Leader let alone PM.

Don't hold back Mr Thompson, tell us what you really think. We can take it!

BTW, WTF with all the acronyms?

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

From LabourList:

Q. Is the process going to be postponed?

A. There are rumours that it could be, but nothing is set in stone.

A week before voting opens, they talk about postponing it?

A phrase about breweries springs to mind...

Financier

@Plato FPT

We have a fleet agreement with Toyota - and have used their Aygos which we have found reliable and get 60+ mpg on motorway and good A roads and 50mpg around the country lanes. Also the Aygo is group 2 insurance and no road tax, but expect GO will be changing that. Service is every 10k miles.

We tend to buy cars on 0% interest rate over 3 years, as often get a dealer deal towards the end of the year. They are pre-registered and get anything from £2k-£3k off the new price. In fact one of ours is due up in November and so expect the phone to start ringing from the dealer. Also we find that with one of these cars they have all the extras fitted (bluetooth, rear camera, riding lights etc) which is in the price. They come with a 5 year guarantee.

We also use Yaris, Prius etc. It all depends on the boot/luggage size required - how much shopping, dogs etc.

HYUFD

What do you call an Australian who's good with a bat? A vet

Sandpit

rottenborough said:

Hitchhiker's Guide to Entryism:

http://labourlist.org/2015/08/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-labour-leadership-contest-and-entryism/

Move along please, nothing to see here (apart from the occasional Conservative MP and a few Trots).
They really couldn't run the proverbial gathering in the alehouse.

Sandpit

HYUFD said:

What do you call an Australian who's good with a bat? A vet

Can we all from now on refer to a bet of £60 as an Australian Test Score, or Aussie for short?

Plato

I'm amazed that the rest are so embarrassingly poor on messaging, campaigning and presentation.

If I hadn't winessed how crap they all are, I'd never believe it. I can imagine PBers in ten years saying Nah, that can't be true.

Speedy said:

Corbyn so far is only one of the 4 that is campaigning and the only one that has shown competence, add his popularity inside the labour party about his policies and that he is not a plank of wood like the other 3 and voila he's the frontrunner.

He's winning because he's the only one actually running in the race.

isam

From a couple o threads ago

ydoethur • Posts: 1,003
11:15AM • edited 11:16AM

@isam (for when you are around)

Just heard on the commentary England are indeed the first ever team to have four different bowlers take six wickets in an innings in four consecutive innings.

Thought you might appreciate knowing that!


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Finally! If you clutch at enough straws.....

A tangible measurement of strength in depth I would say

Thanks @ydoethur

ydoethur

Q. I’ve tweeted criticisms of the Labour Party – will I be blocked?

A. This quote from a Labour source quoted in The Times has been doing the rounds on Twitter: “Anybody identified as a public critic of the party or seen to do it down will not be given a ballot paper.”

Many Labour supporters have pointed out that this could be them done for if the rules are as strict as they sound, but my sources tell me there is a far more level-headed approach. Despairing about the Labour Party online is acceptable, as is liking the Facebook page of an opposition party or politician, but if they find you come across as against the Labour Party, you’ll be knocked off the list.

By that logic, Jeremy Corbyn himself would surely be disqualified given all the rude things he has said about the party ever since the defeat of Tony Benn in 1988. And Shaun Woodward certainly would be, as he was formerly an MP for another party. Ed Balls was a Young Conservative - do they not realise the sheer dumbness of this process?

Good to know that the High Command of the Labour Party have telepathic though so they can tell what you really think, rather than just what you sometimes say.

Plato

Is that in Wales?

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy Burnham will never be leader. He's crap, he came fourth behind two Milibands and a Balls last time. He's crap who has lost the left to Corbyn. He's crap who won't get transfers from Kendall so won't even beat Cooper to the final round..

Andy Burnham is crap and will never be Labour Leader let alone PM.

Burnham has led every poll of the public so far. Yougov had him second to Corbyn on preferences. Reagan and John Howard and Mitterand and Chirac all lost earlier party leadership elections

ABISCAWNBLLLAP?

ABISCCBYCJCOPGOPEUR

HYUFD

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

What do you call an Australian who's good with a bat? A vet

Can we all from now on refer to a bet of £60 as an Australian Test Score, or Aussie for short?

Sounds like it could enter the lexicon

Plato

Oh, will do when I've had a dig about.

Financier said:

@Plato FPT

We have a fleet agreement with Toyota - and have used their Aygos which we have found reliable and get 60+ mpg on motorway and good A roads and 50mpg around the country lanes. Also the Aygo is group 2 insurance and no road tax, but expect GO will be changing that. Service is every 10k miles.

We tend to buy cars on 0% interest rate over 3 years, as often get a dealer deal towards the end of the year. They are pre-registered and get anything from £2k-£3k off the new price. In fact one of ours is due up in November and so expect the phone to start ringing from the dealer. Also we find that with one of these cars they have all the extras fitted (bluetooth, rear camera, riding lights etc) which is in the price. They come with a 5 year guarantee.

We also use Yaris, Prius etc. It all depends on the boot/luggage size required - how much shopping, dogs etc.

calum

Ken still talking up his chances - result due on 15th August - I think all betting markets are now closed - Ladbrokes last odds Kezia 1/50 and Ken 12/1:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13583421.Scottish_Labour_leadership_hopeful_Ken_Macintosh_confident_of_win/

ydoethur

calum said:

Ken still talking up his chances - result due on 15th August - I think all betting markets are now closed - Ladbrokes last odds Kezia 1/50 and Ken 12/1:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13583421.Scottish_Labour_leadership_hopeful_Ken_Macintosh_confident_of_win/

Does it actually matter who wins that race? If Jim Murphy couldn't arrest SLAB's decline, it's difficult to see how either of these two could do it instead. Whatever his shortcomings, compared to him they are definitely makeweights.

MikeSmithson

Financier said:

@Plato FPT

We have a fleet agreement with Toyota - and have used their Aygos which we have found reliable and get 60+ mpg on motorway and good A roads and 50mpg around the country lanes. Also the Aygo is group 2 insurance and no road tax, but expect GO will be changing that. Service is every 10k miles.

We tend to buy cars on 0% interest rate over 3 years, as often get a dealer deal towards the end of the year. They are pre-registered and get anything from £2k-£3k off the new price. In fact one of ours is due up in November and so expect the phone to start ringing from the dealer. Also we find that with one of these cars they have all the extras fitted (bluetooth, rear camera, riding lights etc) which is in the price. They come with a 5 year guarantee.

We also use Yaris, Prius etc. It all depends on the boot/luggage size required - how much shopping, dogs etc.

I've just bought a Yaris hybrid today. As you say the equipment level, particularly the rear camera,is amazing an they feel comfortable as well.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

Hitchhiker's Guide to Entryism:

http://labourlist.org/2015/08/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-labour-leadership-contest-and-entryism/

Move along please, nothing to see here (apart from the occasional Conservative MP and a few Trots).
They really couldn't run the proverbial gathering in the alehouse.

There was probably just as much entryism going on in 2010 when iirc they reduced membership to a quid.

reverend_cat

I am still surprised Burnham is such low odds. Everything points to a toss up between him and cooper if Corbyn is not the winner.

Somebody said before that people seem to forget this is done under AV and that falls greatly in favour of Cooper regarding Kendal's second preferences.

rottenborough

Plato said:

I'm amazed that the rest are so embarrassingly poor on messaging, campaigning and presentation.

If I hadn't winessed how crap they all are, I'd never believe it. I can imagine PBers in ten years saying Nah, that can't be true.

Speedy said:

Corbyn so far is only one of the 4 that is campaigning and the only one that has shown competence, add his popularity inside the labour party about his policies and that he is not a plank of wood like the other 3 and voila he's the frontrunner.

He's winning because he's the only one actually running in the race.

It does seem very weak from a distance, I'm on Cooper, but bit surprised how unready she has appeared from what I've seen. I think she'll be better leader than candidate. Surely these candidates could see what was coming to Ed M and had been prepping for months? Maybe not.

rottenborough

reverend_cat said:

I am still surprised Burnham is such low odds. Everything points to a toss up between him and cooper if Corbyn is not the winner.

Somebody said before that people seem to forget this is done under AV and that falls greatly in favour of Cooper regarding Kendal's second preferences.

Unless Corbyn gets 50% of first prefs. If he does then it will be extremely difficult for the coup to be mounted before a couple of years have gone by - huge mandate. This will all be down as far as I can see to new members, new registrations via unions etc. Talk about taking a gun and shooting yourself.

rottenborough

Wow! Fiorina now at 25s on betfair for GOP. Hope some of you chaps took my tip a couple of months ago!

Plato

Good point.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

Hitchhiker's Guide to Entryism:

http://labourlist.org/2015/08/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-labour-leadership-contest-and-entryism/

Move along please, nothing to see here (apart from the occasional Conservative MP and a few Trots).
They really couldn't run the proverbial gathering in the alehouse.

There was probably just as much entryism going on in 2010 when iirc they reduced membership to a quid.

rottenborough

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-months-of-obscurity-carly-fiorina-emerges-as-a-gop-contender/2015/08/07/52ed04fa-3d29-11e5-9c2d-ed991d848c48_story.html

foxinsoxuk

@RCS

I couldn't get enough signal to lock on to your app at the game. I shall try again at the Spurs game next up at King Power.

Could I just point out: Leicester City are top of the league.

reverend_cat

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

Hitchhiker's Guide to Entryism:

http://labourlist.org/2015/08/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-labour-leadership-contest-and-entryism/

Move along please, nothing to see here (apart from the occasional Conservative MP and a few Trots).
They really couldn't run the proverbial gathering in the alehouse.

There was probably just as much entryism going on in 2010 when iirc they reduced membership to a quid.

This. I paid up as a member in 2010 after no previous association to Labour as I wanted anyone but David Milliband, I wanted a departure from the Blair years and saw that as more likely under Ed than David.

Interesting how that panned out...

reverend_cat

Is there a plan for more YouGov polling in the next week?

Remembering last leadership election, YouGov did one mid July and one mid August which was essentially an exit poll as many votes had been cast.

Expecting similar this time? So perhaps next poll will be 'exit poll'.

Cromwell

I would be interested to know when the ballots are actually counted ; is it when they start to come in or are they counted together just before sept 12 th ...will the LP know who is ahead , say , in two weeks time ?

Plato

Stephen Bush said he'd heard of YouGov polling Labour members in the last few days - sounds like a final one before voting begins.

reverend_cat said:

Is there a plan for more YouGov polling in the next week?

Remembering last leadership election, YouGov did one mid July and one mid August which was essentially an exit poll as many votes had been cast.

Expecting similar this time? So perhaps next poll will be 'exit poll'.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

reverend_cat said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

Hitchhiker's Guide to Entryism:

http://labourlist.org/2015/08/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-labour-leadership-contest-and-entryism/

Move along please, nothing to see here (apart from the occasional Conservative MP and a few Trots).
They really couldn't run the proverbial gathering in the alehouse.

There was probably just as much entryism going on in 2010 when iirc they reduced membership to a quid.

This. I paid up as a member in 2010 after no previous association to Labour as I wanted anyone but David Milliband, I wanted a departure from the Blair years and saw that as more likely under Ed than David.

Interesting how that panned out...

I wanted to support my lay bet on DM.

reverend_cat

Plato said:

Stephen Bush said he'd heard of YouGov polling Labour members in the last few days - sounds like a final one before voting begins.

reverend_cat said:

Is there a plan for more YouGov polling in the next week?

Remembering last leadership election, YouGov did one mid July and one mid August which was essentially an exit poll as many votes had been cast.

Expecting similar this time? So perhaps next poll will be 'exit poll'.

Nice. Thanks.

I'm sitting

+£5k Burnham
+£14k Corbyn
+£9k Cooper

So inclined to sit and wait and maybe reposition after this next YouGov poll.

Cromwell

Andy Burnham is hopeless ; he almost came last in the 2010 Leadership race and I expect him to come almost last again , just ahead of Liz kendall...it seems to me that this contest is between Corbyn and Cooper ...Corbyn could win it on the first ballot , but I suspect the LP to get its act together and get behind Cooper to make her the first female leader
I just don't have a vivid enough imagination to imagine Corbyn as leader ...gawd , that would be a true Darwin Award

Corbyn never wanted to be leader and I suspect the mere thought of it will give him nightmares ; it seems to me that he will deliberately hang himself with comments about Blair being a war criminal or sympathetic comments towards the IRA or Hamas ...either way I expect his support to cool

reverend_cat

Cromwell said:

Andy Burnham is hopeless ; he almost came last in the 2010 Leadership race and I expect him to come almost last again , just ahead of Liz kendall...it seems to me that this contest is between Corbyn and Cooper ...Corbyn could win it on the first ballot , but I suspect the LP to get its act together and get behind Cooper to make her the first female leader
I just don't have a vivid enough imagination to imagine Corbyn as leader ...gawd , that would be a true Darwin Award

Corbyn never wanted to be leader and I suspect the mere thought of it will give him nightmares ; it seems to me that he will deliberately hang himself with comments about Blair being a war criminal or sympathetic comments towards the IRA or Hamas ...either way I expect his support to cool

See I initially thought Corbyn never wanted to be leader but as the competition has gone on I think he has increasingly warmed to the idea and may actually want it now.

His campaign paid for a full back page spread advert on the Guardian this weekend urging people to sign up and vote for him. If he didn't want to win I doubt they'd be pushing sign ups that hard.

HenryGManson

If it hasn't been commented on I thought I'd mention that the Corbyn campaign has a full page colour advert in today's Guardian encouraging people to sign up and to welcome them to the Labour party. Bold and clever because this is a favourable audience for his breed of politics. A week ago the Guardian said they polled 630 of its 'core readers' and found that they backed him two and a half times more than all the other candidates added together. (51% supported Jeremy Corbyn compared to 7% for Yvette and 6% for Andy and Liz.) http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/03/analysing-the-balance-of-our-jeremy-corbyn-coverage

Now we all know that Guardian readers are far from representative of the public and newspapers are in decline, but they still get 180,000 readers a day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_circulation

It just struck me as a smart campaign move for this internal contest with just a few days to go. Given there was a positive front page interview with Corbyn I reckon that's got to be worth 1000 new sign ups for him?

Plato

I totally agree. His impish smiles and very energetic campaigning are not signs of a reluctant hero of the Left.

reverend_cat said:

Cromwell said:

Andy Burnham is hopeless ; he almost came last in the 2010 Leadership race and I expect him to come almost last again , just ahead of Liz kendall...it seems to me that this contest is between Corbyn and Cooper ...Corbyn could win it on the first ballot , but I suspect the LP to get its act together and get behind Cooper to make her the first female leader
I just don't have a vivid enough imagination to imagine Corbyn as leader ...gawd , that would be a true Darwin Award

Corbyn never wanted to be leader and I suspect the mere thought of it will give him nightmares ; it seems to me that he will deliberately hang himself with comments about Blair being a war criminal or sympathetic comments towards the IRA or Hamas ...either way I expect his support to cool

See I initially thought Corbyn never wanted to be leader but as the competition has gone on I think he has increasingly warmed to the idea and may actually want it now.

His campaign paid for a full back page spread advert on the Guardian this weekend urging people to sign up and vote for him. If he didn't want to win I doubt they'd be pushing sign ups that hard.

Charles

Cromwell said:

I would be interested to know when the ballots are actually counted ; is it when they start to come in or are they counted together just before sept 12 th ...will the LP know who is ahead , say , in two weeks time ?

And who is counting them...sure the Corbyn team would want a scrutineer...

Cromwell

If Corbyn does win I'm not even sure he'll accept the leadership of the LP ; it may well be that he allows himself to be talked out of it ''for the good of the party ''..if he does take it and manages to find enough MPs to put a shadow cabinet together he's surely in for a rough ride ..he'll be humiliated before being yanked out of there within a few months , after all , why should the LP accept a loony leftist leader hoisted upon them who could only realistically expect support from about10% of them

HenryGManson

They're counted independently by Electoral Reform Services. Little chance Labour will know until the end.

Cromwell said:

I would be interested to know when the ballots are actually counted ; is it when they start to come in or are they counted together just before sept 12 th ...will the LP know who is ahead , say , in two weeks time ?

Cromwell

Nice. Thanks.

I'm sitting

+£5k Burnham
+£14k Corbyn
+£9k Cooper

So inclined to sit and wait and maybe reposition after this next YouGov poll.

To bet large amounts of money like this do you go to an exchange like Betfair or do you go directly to the high street bookies ?

Cromwell

HenryGManson said:

They're counted independently by Electoral Reform Services. Little chance Labour will know until the end.

Cromwell said:

I would be interested to know when the ballots are actually counted ; is it when they start to come in or are they counted together just before sept 12 th ...will the LP know who is ahead , say , in two weeks time ?

HenryGManson said:

They're counted independently by Electoral Reform Services. Little chance Labour will know until the end.

Cromwell said:

I would be interested to know when the ballots are actually counted ; is it when they start to come in or are they counted together just before sept 12 th ...will the LP know who is ahead , say , in two weeks time ?

--------------------------------------

Thanks for the info ; it seems to me that fear of cobynmania will concentrate a lot of Labour minds and as such I expect a late surge for Cooper , but without any reliable polling I'm only guessing ...I could very well be wrong

reverend_cat

Cromwell said:

Nice. Thanks.

I'm sitting

+£5k Burnham
+£14k Corbyn
+£9k Cooper

So inclined to sit and wait and maybe reposition after this next YouGov poll.

To bet large amounts of money like this do you go to an exchange like Betfair or do you go directly to the high street bookies ?



Most of it is Betfair Exchange. Only bought in with £100 on Corbyn at 250/1, and been slowly repositioning that. I guess I just got extremely lucky. I'd never usually be dealing with this amount...

Plato

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

HYUFD

Cromwell said:

Andy Burnham is hopeless ; he almost came last in the 2010 Leadership race and I expect him to come almost last again , just ahead of Liz kendall...it seems to me that this contest is between Corbyn and Cooper ...Corbyn could win it on the first ballot , but I suspect the LP to get its act together and get behind Cooper to make her the first female leader
I just don't have a vivid enough imagination to imagine Corbyn as leader ...gawd , that would be a true Darwin Award

Corbyn never wanted to be leader and I suspect the mere thought of it will give him nightmares ; it seems to me that he will deliberately hang himself with comments about Blair being a war criminal or sympathetic comments towards the IRA or Hamas ...either way I expect his support to cool

No Cooper polls terribly, sometimes worse than Corbyn. Burnham consistently polls best with the public and was runner-up to Corbyn with members with yougov

Cromwell

reverend_cat said:

Cromwell said:

Andy Burnham is hopeless ; he almost came last in the 2010 Leadership race and I expect him to come almost last again , just ahead of Liz kendall...it seems to me that this contest is between Corbyn and Cooper ...Corbyn could win it on the first ballot , but I suspect the LP to get its act together and get behind Cooper to make her the first female leader
I just don't have a vivid enough imagination to imagine Corbyn as leader ...gawd , that would be a true Darwin Award

Corbyn never wanted to be leader and I suspect the mere thought of it will give him nightmares ; it seems to me that he will deliberately hang himself with comments about Blair being a war criminal or sympathetic comments towards the IRA or Hamas ...either way I expect his support to cool

See I initially thought Corbyn never wanted to be leader but as the competition has gone on I think he has increasingly warmed to the idea and may actually want it now.

His campaign paid for a full back page spread advert on the Guardian this weekend urging people to sign up and vote for him. If he didn't want to win I doubt they'd be pushing sign ups that hard.

--------------------------
sounds about right , maybe he really does have a messiah complex and now considers himself the ''anointed one ''...a real Walter Mitty ..one thing is for sure , if he does win and is foolish enough to accept the mantle of leadership then he truly deserves his fate

Slackbladder

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

How bizzare, he certainly didnt hang around long

tlg86

Cromwell said:

reverend_cat said:

Cromwell said:

Andy Burnham is hopeless ; he almost came last in the 2010 Leadership race and I expect him to come almost last again , just ahead of Liz kendall...it seems to me that this contest is between Corbyn and Cooper ...Corbyn could win it on the first ballot , but I suspect the LP to get its act together and get behind Cooper to make her the first female leader
I just don't have a vivid enough imagination to imagine Corbyn as leader ...gawd , that would be a true Darwin Award

Corbyn never wanted to be leader and I suspect the mere thought of it will give him nightmares ; it seems to me that he will deliberately hang himself with comments about Blair being a war criminal or sympathetic comments towards the IRA or Hamas ...either way I expect his support to cool

See I initially thought Corbyn never wanted to be leader but as the competition has gone on I think he has increasingly warmed to the idea and may actually want it now.

His campaign paid for a full back page spread advert on the Guardian this weekend urging people to sign up and vote for him. If he didn't want to win I doubt they'd be pushing sign ups that hard.

--------------------------
sounds about right , maybe he really does have a messiah complex and now considers himself the ''anointed one ''...a real Walter Mitty ..one thing is for sure , if he does win and is foolish enough to accept the mantle of leadership then he truly deserves his fate

I think Corbyn has wanted everyone to think that he wasn't serious, but actually he is deadly serious.

HYUFD

Plato said:

Is that in Wales?

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy Burnham will never be leader. He's crap, he came fourth behind two Milibands and a Balls last time. He's crap who has lost the left to Corbyn. He's crap who won't get transfers from Kendall so won't even beat Cooper to the final round..

Andy Burnham is crap and will never be Labour Leader let alone PM.

Burnham has led every poll of the public so far. Yougov had him second to Corbyn on preferences. Reagan and John Howard and Mitterand and Chirac all lost earlier party leadership elections

ABISCAWNBLLLAP?

ABISCCBYCJCOPGOPEUR

Welsh borders

Danny565

calum said:

Ken still talking up his chances - result due on 15th August - I think all betting markets are now closed - Ladbrokes last odds Kezia 1/50 and Ken 12/1:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13583421.Scottish_Labour_leadership_hopeful_Ken_Macintosh_confident_of_win/

What has Dugdale actually done to justify being such an overwhelming favourite? She's always seemed rather average whenever I've seen her.

Charles

Slackbladder said:

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

How bizzare, he certainly didnt hang around long

I can see why he'd want a new life, though. And the weather's good

Slackbladder

Danny565 said:

calum said:

Ken still talking up his chances - result due on 15th August - I think all betting markets are now closed - Ladbrokes last odds Kezia 1/50 and Ken 12/1:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13583421.Scottish_Labour_leadership_hopeful_Ken_Macintosh_confident_of_win/

What has Dugdale actually done to justify being such an overwhelming favourite? She's always seemed rather average whenever I've seen her.

Last woman standing

Cromwell

reverend_cat said:

Cromwell said:

Nice. Thanks.

I'm sitting

+£5k Burnham
+£14k Corbyn
+£9k Cooper

So inclined to sit and wait and maybe reposition after this next YouGov poll.

To bet large amounts of money like this do you go to an exchange like Betfair or do you go directly to the high street bookies ?

Most of it is Betfair Exchange. Only bought in with £100 on Corbyn at 250/1, and been slowly repositioning that. I guess I just got extremely lucky. I'd never usually be dealing with this amount...
======================

Good for you , you have ben very lucky ...I used to trade a lot on INTRADE ..I really miss their markets

I will simply be simply astonished if the LP elect an anachronistic fool like Corbyn as leader ; I will not believe it until I see it with my very own eyes , and even then it'll take time to actually absorb it

HurstLlama

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

I always thought Mrs. Brown had her head screwed on. She certainly isn't going to let her children grow up and be educated in the UK that her husband buggered up. Sensible woman.

flightpath01

Charles said:

Slackbladder said:

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

How bizzare, he certainly didnt hang around long

I can see why he'd want a new life, though. And the weather's good

Heaven forbid anyone should defend Brown - but the fact is he and his wife and family spent a few months in California. They are now back in the UK and have been for a little while. He has not 'moved' to America. Well not yet anyway - and if he did I reckon it would be to Cape Cod.

The interesting bit in the report was seeing how Brown plagiarised MacMillan's remark about 'events' being what a politician needs to manage.
Brown of course does do probably just as much globetrotting, trying to sound important, as Blair.

Danny565

HurstLlama said:

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

I always thought Mrs. Brown had her head screwed on. She certainly isn't going to let her children grow up and be educated in the UK that her husband buggered up. Sensible woman.

She has instead gone to a country where the government isn't in the grip of hysterical Austerity-mania.

HYUFD

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

Now he is next door to Hollywood perhaps he could get a role in the next Avengers movie, after all he saved the world in 2008

William_H

If Corbyn didn't want to be leader he wouldn't have said he'd back "Yes" in the EU referendum.

calum

Danny565 said:

calum said:

Ken still talking up his chances - result due on 15th August - I think all betting markets are now closed - Ladbrokes last odds Kezia 1/50 and Ken 12/1:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13583421.Scottish_Labour_leadership_hopeful_Ken_Macintosh_confident_of_win/

What has Dugdale actually done to justify being such an overwhelming favourite? She's always seemed rather average whenever I've seen her.

The odds do seem a bit out of kilter, we now know that as well as 15,500 members SLAB has also had 6000 supporters/affiliates sign up to vote. Kezia is the party machine candidate and under the guidance of John McT has been slagging off Corbyn and helping fight Blairisim's last stand with Kendal.

The last time Ken stood for leader he secured over 50% of the membership vote in the 1st round but lost out in the electoral college. If Ken does manage to pull it off Ladbrokes will be left looking like a bunch of numpties, as with the political commentators who are mainly calling it for Kezia.

MonikerDiCanio

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

Isn't that an earthquake zone ?
Brown's dreadful presence would be most unwelcome if his neighbours knew what had just entered their lives.

HurstLlama

Danny565 said:

HurstLlama said:

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

I always thought Mrs. Brown had her head screwed on. She certainly isn't going to let her children grow up and be educated in the UK that her husband buggered up. Sensible woman.

She has instead gone to a country where the government isn't in the grip of hysterical Austerity-mania.

Gosh, has he? He could have stayed here for that.

flightpath01

reverend_cat said:

Plato said:

Stephen Bush said he'd heard of YouGov polling Labour members in the last few days - sounds like a final one before voting begins.

reverend_cat said:

Is there a plan for more YouGov polling in the next week?

Remembering last leadership election, YouGov did one mid July and one mid August which was essentially an exit poll as many votes had been cast.

Expecting similar this time? So perhaps next poll will be 'exit poll'.

Nice. Thanks.

I'm sitting

+£5k Burnham
+£14k Corbyn
+£9k Cooper

So inclined to sit and wait and maybe reposition after this next YouGov poll.

If the bourgeoisie have so much money sloshing around with nothing better to do, then I think I might be tempted to spend my £3 and vote for Corbyn...

HurstLlama

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

Isn't that an earthquake zone ?
Brown's dreadful presence would be most unwelcome if his neighbours knew what had just entered their lives.

We do need the like button back.

Cromwell

If the LP end up with say 400,000 voters , split roughly 50/50 between old and new members , then I suspect that about 60-70% of those new voters to be Corbynites ; I also expect at least 20-25% of old members to be voting for Corbyn too ....the LP have got to quickly unify behind Cooper if they are to have any chance of stopping this runaway train

MyBurningEars

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/03/analysing-the-balance-of-our-jeremy-corbyn-coverage

This is really quite interesting. According to the Guardian's own figures, about a third of its under-35 readership regard themselves as "right of centre" politically. Older Guardian readers are substantially more likely to identify as left-wing. This despite the electoral demographics pointing the other way, in that older people are more likely to vote right-wing in general.

Plato

I find that statistic really rather hard to believe re right of centre readers. 10-15% is plausible, but 33%?

MyBurningEars said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/03/analysing-the-balance-of-our-jeremy-corbyn-coverage

This is really quite interesting. According to the Guardian's own figures, about a third of its under-35 readership regard themselves as "right of centre" politically. Older Guardian readers are substantially more likely to identify as left-wing. This despite the electoral demographics pointing the other way, in that older people are more likely to vote right-wing in general.

MyBurningEars

It's a consumer survey of "total readership", apparently, so may well be dominated by the online edition, especially for younger readers. With the Times behind a paywall, the Mail online rather downmarket compared to the paper itself, and the Telegraph's web offering a bit of a mess, there is a shortage of "serious" centre or centre-right news content online. I guess many of those readers would have been more naturally at home with one of the other papers I mentioned.

Plato said:

I find that statistic really rather hard to believe re right of centre readers. 10-15% is plausible, but 33%?

MyBurningEars said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/03/analysing-the-balance-of-our-jeremy-corbyn-coverage

This is really quite interesting. According to the Guardian's own figures, about a third of its under-35 readership regard themselves as "right of centre" politically. Older Guardian readers are substantially more likely to identify as left-wing. This despite the electoral demographics pointing the other way, in that older people are more likely to vote right-wing in general.

HYUFD

Cromwell said:

If the LP end up with say 400,000 voters , split roughly 50/50 between old and new members , then I suspect that about 60-70% of those new voters to be Corbynites ; I also expect at least 20-25% of old members to be voting for Corbyn too ....the LP have got to quickly unify behind Cooper if they are to have any chance of stopping this runaway train

Why? Cooper polls worse than Burnham and Corbyn and yougov had her third with members too

foxinsoxuk

Plato said:

I find that statistic really rather hard to believe re right of centre readers. 10-15% is plausible, but 33%?

MyBurningEars said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/03/analysing-the-balance-of-our-jeremy-corbyn-coverage

This is really quite interesting. According to the Guardian's own figures, about a third of its under-35 readership regard themselves as "right of centre" politically. Older Guardian readers are substantially more likely to identify as left-wing. This despite the electoral demographics pointing the way, in that older people are more likely to vote right-wing in general.

Its self definition, so it all depends on where you belive the centre to be; e.g. the Communists are the sensible centre ground between the extremes of bourgois democracy and Anarcho-syndicalism.

foxinsoxuk

Cromwell said:

If the LP end up with say 400,000 voters , split roughly 50/50 between old and new members , then I suspect that about 60-70% of those new voters to be Corbynites ; I also expect at least 20-25% of old members to be voting for Corbyn too ....the LP have got to quickly unify behind Cooper if they are to have any chance of stopping this runaway train

With AV they do not have to choose, as long as they all put Corbyn last.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

HurstLlama said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

Isn't that an earthquake zone ?
Brown's dreadful presence would be most unwelcome if his neighbours knew what had just entered their lives.

We do need the like button back.

Seconded.

FrancisUrquhart

MyBurningEars said:

It's a consumer survey of "total readership", apparently, so may well be dominated by the online edition, especially for younger readers. With the Times behind a paywall, the Mail online rather downmarket compared to the paper itself, and the Telegraph's web offering a bit of a mess, there is a shortage of "serious" centre or centre-right news content online. I guess many of those readers would have been more naturally at home with one of the other papers I mentioned.

Plato said:

I find that statistic really rather hard to believe re right of centre readers. 10-15% is plausible, but 33%?

MyBurningEars said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/03/analysing-the-balance-of-our-jeremy-corbyn-coverage

This is really quite interesting. According to the Guardian's own figures, about a third of its under-35 readership regard themselves as "right of centre" politically. Older Guardian readers are substantially more likely to identify as left-wing. This despite the electoral demographics pointing the other way, in that older people are more likely to vote right-wing in general.

I think is spot on analysis of the situation, plus how did they determine left / right. To many old school Guardian readers somebody like David Cameron is massively right wing.

The only problem for the Guardian managing to attract people outside of its traditional demographic readership, is a bit like twitter vs Facebook...the young might all be into their twitter but they haven't got much money and Facebook is making oodles as it is the tool that 30-40 years old use.

I bet the eyeball of a standard Mail / Times user is significantly more valuable than Guardian.

calum

ydoethur said:

calum said:

Ken still talking up his chances - result due on 15th August - I think all betting markets are now closed - Ladbrokes last odds Kezia 1/50 and Ken 12/1:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13583421.Scottish_Labour_leadership_hopeful_Ken_Macintosh_confident_of_win/

Does it actually matter who wins that race? If Jim Murphy couldn't arrest SLAB's decline, it's difficult to see how either of these two could do it instead. Whatever his shortcomings, compared to him they are definitely makeweights.

On balance Ken would be best, Kezia doesn't interview well - any question is answered SNP BAD, which may work for the political commentators, but doesn't come over well coming from an opposition leader.

In terms of Murphy, the MSM are still struggling with the concept that he was probably the worst possible leader for SLAB in Scotland, with most folks thinking he was virtually a Tory.

You'll recollect that when Murphy was elected in late 2014 he was promising to establish a independent SLAB free from London's influence - he made the same promises as he was departing in June 2015. To put Murphy in perspective, he made the exact same comments 4 years ago when he was appointed to review SLAB post the May 2011 defeat:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-14865745

I think SLAB have got themselves into a spot where nobody trusts a word they say, sadly this also applies to their own supporters. That said they'll still scrape a 2nd place In Holyrood 2016, difficult for them to get below 20 seats due to the workings of the AMS.

MikeK

'Community cohesion'The kind of crazy rhetoric that resulted in 1400+ children in Rotherham being continually abused https://t.co/5aYbLK0y9f

— Rich A S (@Rich_A_S) August 5, 2015

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

David Schneider ‏@davidschneider 22h22 hours ago

Concerns rise that Labour may well have been infiltrated by people hell-bent on spreading hope and social justice.

calum

Corbyn is playing a pretty good social media game, his 4 city tour of Scotland next week will be interesting, I think he'll receive a warm welcome and be mobbed, while the SLAB party machine folks lurk around in the shadows. Looks like you can sign up as a supporter by text !!

https://twitter.com/Corbyn4Leader/status/630082874486718464

NickPalmer

I'm still in the US (returning tomorrow) and went for a stroll in the park with friends today - we were stopped by two Sanders enthusiasts urging us to register to vote and sign up for Bernie.

The parallels between the Sanders and Corbyn campaigns are pretty striking, though the Sanders camp is more willing to entertain the prospect of losing to "the Clinton machine" (interestingly the two today were more sanguine about beating the GOP).

NickPalmer

Creasy overtaking Watson?

http://labourlist.org/2015/08/stella-creasy-takes-the-lead-in-the-deputy-leadership-race-according-to-latest-labourlist-survey/

foxinsoxuk

calum said:

Corbyn is playing a pretty good social media game, his 4 city tour of Scotland next week will be interesting, I think he'll receive a warm welcome and be mobbed, while the SLAB party machine folks lurk around in the shadows. Looks like you can sign up as a supporter by text !!

https://twitter.com/Corbyn4Leader/status/630082874486718464

Has Corbyn expressed a view on the SLAB leader? If he came out for Ken, could make some useful dosh.

foxinsoxuk

NickPalmer said:

Creasy overtaking Watson?

http://labourlist.org/2015/08/stella-creasy-takes-the-lead-in-the-deputy-leadership-race-according-to-latest-labourlist-survey/

I saw that. I see Shadsy has her as 33/1 for leading Labour at the next election. I think that worth a punt, assuming Corbyn does not last the distance. Stella seems not to have wound up the party as much as the small yet perfectly formed Liz K. She also seems to have support both in Parliament and in Constituencies.

MonikerDiCanio

NickPalmer said:

I'm still in the US (returning tomorrow) and went for a stroll in the park with friends today - we were stopped by two Sanders enthusiasts urging us to register to vote and sign up for Bernie.

The parallels between the Sanders and Corbyn campaigns are pretty striking, though the Sanders camp is more willing to entertain the prospect of losing to "the Clinton machine" (interestingly the two today were more sanguine about beating the GOP).

Bernie and Jeremy opposed the Iraq fiasco. Unlike Hillary and New Labour hacks.

MP_SE

A councillor for the Scottish Nasty Party has quit after claiming she has been the victim of racial abuse:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/chinese-snp-councillor-quits-amid-racism-claims-1-3852813

TheScreamingEagles

Private polling klaxon

Private polling by the Burnham camp shows outsider Ms Kendall only five points behind Ms Cooper.

Ms Kendall is expected to drop out after the first round and her second preference votes be distributed among the others.

Mr Burnham’s supporters say that if the Shadow Health Secretary is the next to go, Mr Corbyn will win.

But if Shadow Home Secretary Ms Cooper falls instead, then Mr Burnham will triumph.

http://bit.ly/1f0r79t

Sunil_Prasannan

flightpath01 said:

The interesting bit in the report was seeing how Brown plagiarised MacMillan's remark about 'events' being what a politician needs to manage.

Except that MacMillan likely never ever said "Events"!

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Harold_Macmillan#Disputed

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, I am monumentally surprised that polling for Burnham shows he's the best placed alternative to Corbyn. Gasp! Gosh!

calum

foxinsoxuk said:

calum said:

Corbyn is playing a pretty good social media game, his 4 city tour of Scotland next week will be interesting, I think he'll receive a warm welcome and be mobbed, while the SLAB party machine folks lurk around in the shadows. Looks like you can sign up as a supporter by text !!

https://twitter.com/Corbyn4Leader/status/630082874486718464

Has Corbyn expressed a view on the SLAB leader? If he came out for Ken, could make some useful dosh.

As far as I can tell Corbyn hasn't expressed a view either way. That said Kezia who is being guided by John McT etc has been slagging off Corbyn, whereas Ken has been expressing support for Corbyn and will no doubt be at each of Corbyn's rallies in Scotland. With a week to go before the SLAB poll closes, this could make a difference.

JEO

Plato said:

I find that statistic really rather hard to believe re right of centre readers. 10-15% is plausible, but 33%?

MyBurningEars said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/03/analysing-the-balance-of-our-jeremy-corbyn-coverage

This is really quite interesting. According to the Guardian's own figures, about a third of its under-35 readership regard themselves as "right of centre" politically. Older Guardian readers are substantially more likely to identify as left-wing. This despite the electoral demographics pointing the other way, in that older people are more likely to vote right-wing in general.

I think it's quite plausible. A lot of people who would like Blair, Clegg and Ken Clarke would call themselves centre-right. They're pro-EU, pro-gay marriage, pro-multiculturalism but also believe in balancing the books, making them feel very right wing among metropolitan media types, so they describe themselves as centre-right.

JEO

Danny565 said:

HurstLlama said:

Plato said:

Wondered why Gordon hasn't commented? He's moved his family to LA California, really. Their kids are at school in San Fernando Valley.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4521143.ece

I always thought Mrs. Brown had her head screwed on. She certainly isn't going to let her children grow up and be educated in the UK that her husband buggered up. Sensible woman.

She has instead gone to a country where the government isn't in the grip of hysterical Austerity-mania.

Jerry Brown, the Democrat governor of California, has substantially cut spending in recent years. They have more sensible leftists than we do.

http://madashelland.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/19992012CaliforniaStateSpending.png

Morris_Dancer

Mr. JEO, saying someone's more sensible than Miliband and Corbyn is damning with faint praise.

SandyRentool

JEO said:

Plato said:

I find that statistic really rather hard to believe re right of centre readers. 10-15% is plausible, but 33%?

MyBurningEars said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/03/analysing-the-balance-of-our-jeremy-corbyn-coverage

This is really quite interesting. According to the Guardian's own figures, about a third of its under-35 readership regard themselves as "right of centre" politically. Older Guardian readers are substantially more likely to identify as left-wing. This despite the electoral demographics pointing the other way, in that older people are more likely to vote right-wing in general.

I think it's quite plausible. A lot of people who would like Blair, Clegg and Ken Clarke would call themselves centre-right. They're pro-EU, pro-gay marriage, pro-multiculturalism but also believe in balancing the books, making them feel very right wing among metropolitan media types, so they describe themselves as centre-right.

That sounds like a description of Liz K.

MyBurningEars

foxinsoxuk said:

Plato said:

I find that statistic really rather hard to believe re right of centre readers. 10-15% is plausible, but 33%?

MyBurningEars said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/03/analysing-the-balance-of-our-jeremy-corbyn-coverage

This is really quite interesting. According to the Guardian's own figures, about a third of its under-35 readership regard themselves as "right of centre" politically. Older Guardian readers are substantially more likely to identify as left-wing. This despite the electoral demographics pointing the way, in that older people are more likely to vote right-wing in general.

Its self definition, so it all depends on where you belive the centre to be; e.g. the Communists are the sensible centre ground between the extremes of bourgois democracy and Anarcho-syndicalism.

As a sometime communist/sometime Green voter (would probably be more at home voting TUSC, if one had stood in my constituency) I love that, Dr Fox!