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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember the Saturday when the Telegraph and Sky News both
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember the Saturday when the Telegraph and Sky News both declared that Alan Johnson had won the deputy leader election
Remember June 2007? So many Labour MPs had chickened out of doing other than nominate Brown for leader that there weren’t enough left for another candidate to go on the ballot. The result – the party got what the polling indicated was a leader who was an electoral liability – not someone who could lead them into a fourth successive general election victory.
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@HurstLlama - loved your Jethro Tull pen-pic, I last saw them in about 1984.
FPT: Mr. Tyson, not offended at all. Some years ago [which does make me feel old...] I was almost certainly the youngest chap in a certain chatroom. Upon enquiry, I found the others thought (on average) I was 30-40, a few that I might be an OAP. I was about 17-18 at the time.
FPT: Ms. Apocalypse, dare I ask how old you thought I might be?
Also, Harriet Harman is calling for the government to get compensation from France for the British businesses that are in danger of going out of business. While that's unexpected from Labour, it still seems fair. The French can't go on not policing crime and expect it's ok that British companies just suffer the damage. What is the EU for if British companies can't get redress from France not doing its basic government responsibilities?
Re: minimum age for HoL: I hesitated between 35 then 40 and then 45. It is really based on interviewing candidates for jobs. Many a younger person's education today has left them without a wide general knowledge (certainly far less than I had at 18) or even a wide knowledge of their specialism We need people with wide knowledge and experience and so tend to be recruiting those with grey hair or no hair.
I well appreciate the problems of those having loans for tuition fees and maintenance but remain amazed at those who seem to spend a lot of money on alcohol and going out - something I could never afford on my uni scholarships.
Re: Gigs: Had to rescue family from the mud at WOMAD last weekend, but that place felt weird - a time-warp of would-be hippies. Presume the Proms don't count as a gig.
Re: Older men and younger women: Interesting how it changes over time - in the 1700s and 1800s it was quite common for men of 50 or 60 to marry ladies in the early 20s - the men had made their fortune by then. Of course it is said, that many lades like to 'mate' with the bad and thrilling guys but want the steady and secure ones as fathers for their children. However, it is not unknown nowadays when a man loses a well paid job, that he is divorced if he can no longer keep his wife in the manner to which she has become accustomed.
I do seem to have made a habit of advanced ageing. Started shaving when I was 12, and recently started shaving my head (hair was thinning and it was starting to enter the realms of comedy).
Some of the girls in my primary school had already begun wearing bras by year 5/6, so I think advanced aging may be not be rare....
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting that girls do mature more quickly than boys (plus there's a desire, at that age, to be as grown-up as possible).
Anyway, I hope it levels off. I'd prefer to outlive Alexander the Great, if possible.
Golly, that sounds weird. I think I was 11 and one of the first in my class in the late 70s.
Even if Burnham manages to come second on first preferences, Kendall will break for Cooper and so its Cooper-Corbyn for the final round. Cooper could yet win this despite being third place in round one and potentially 15 points below Corbyn on first preferences.
I understand that tariffs are less important these days than non-tariff barriers, which your 1% issue does not covered. I was under the impression that Iceland was very big into financial services, that it was what they had effectively replaced fishing with as their primary industry. Would you mind discussing the pros and cons of the ISDS issue a little more? I would like to form an opinion on it, but most of the commentary has been simplistic. I have heard the argument that it is need to prevent the sort of shadowy protectionism that France does. Is there some middle way that could be done?
I'm also surprised that the US is in a position to do a take it or leave it deal. It seems like Obama needs a win on this more than anyone else does, at least for global geopolitics reasons.
@The_Apocalypse @Philip_Thomson
When I was at university, there was a friend of mine who was just 18 who had a relationship with an army man in his 30s. She was very naive and he clearly manipulated her lack of experience. Eventually it turned out he was married with children, and had several of these student mistresses. It all made me very uncomfortable. I would maybe have a sliding scale starting with a one year exception for 15 year olds to maybe a six year one for 20 year olds. I know 18 is now the accepted definition of adulthood, but I think the evidence is increasingly showing that the adolescent brain does not stop developing until their early 20s. Certainly a lot of university graduates these days do not seem ready for adulthood. Modern helicopter parenting does not help.
Don't judge everyone by a category. That's like Ed Milliband asking a Sikh Conservative will he be ensuring "we "(Labour) get the Sikh vote.
@Plato Yeah, though tbf the girls were around the age of 10/11 (year 5 is 9-10 years, year 6 10-11 for clarification).
I still don't quite feel like an 'adult' and I'm 21! I think many who are 18, may be adult in age but they are nowhere near an adult in mentality. I felt like a child until about 20 - so only a year ago
On your story, I'm not remotely surprised. This is why I'm very wary when older guys are interested.
I think a lot of adults (not just young adults) are not ready to be adults either. The welfare state has infantilised a lot of people, if the government pays for your home and expenses and basically doles out pocket money regularly to live on without ever working then there's almost no reason for some people to grow up.
But while I don't think the government needs to get involved as far as a sliding scale as to what I find comfortable, the general rule of thumb I've heard is 50% of the oldest partners age plus seven. At 16 that means 15, at 18 that means 16, at 24 it means 19 and at 30 means 22.
I reflexively assume its a lot of media hyperbole and a bit of truth [that's no different to how it was when I was a teenager], but what do I know.
If I had young female children, they'd never be allowed to dress in the highly provocative ways many do today. And I'm no prig.
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CCMQyCkwAGoVChMI8cPr756IxwIVJS_bCh2BEQnu&url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bZjKC0EaY0&ei=Vuu8VfHAJ6Xe7AaBo6TwDg&usg=AFQjCNFUkFCwJatdfQ0E4JCDNG9Vn0S4tg&sig2=lrKTpZISW5dMqDn55dUNbQ&bvm=bv.99261572,d.ZGU
They were brilliant. Far better than I had expected or hoped. I am a big fan anyway in all their incarnations but they certainly didn't disappoint. Lindsey Buckingham showed just what an under-rated guitarist he is and Mick Fleetwood was just astonishing in his energy given he is 68. Of the two female singers Stevie Nicks has probably been the one who has struggled most to retain her voice and can't hit the high notes anymore but it kind of didn't matter given her style of singing. Christine McVie was incredible and her voice lived up to her maiden name.
The set list (23 tracks in total) has a lot of Rumours in it of course but also a wide spread across all of the 70s-90s Fleetwood Mac albums.
Highlight - in spite of all the great Rumour's stuff has to have been Lindsey Buckingham guitar solo on I'm So Afraid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDwg28bSjoI
You can hold onto the fashions, keep up with the music scene etc, but the hardest thing to hold onto is the idealism of youth. It is far too easy to become cynical, and nothing ages a person faster.
http://www.scotland.org/about-scotland/government-timeline/
But I know it's pointless to argue facts with people of faith....
I never had that. I recall being pro-corporal punishment as a child (I've since mellowed on that particular front, largely because I think it's open to abuse).
Corbyn mania has spooked and is in the process of unifying the opposition...Burnham is a limp and pathetic weather vane who lacks confidence and has a personality unsuitable for a leadership role
The voters are going to sober up to the dangers that Corbyn represents and are going to elect Cooper as the compromise candidate and the first female leader ...mark my words !
I think a lot of young boys, at the very least want to recreate some of things they see in porn, in real life. Quite a few are obsessed with anal and 'facials'. I don't think wanting to do these things is necessarily a bad thing, but I think a lot of girls feel under pressure to do things that they aren't comfortable with, and I think that's more worrying.
A world without wars is only possible in a world which has seen the human race extirpated.
I don't know about this re-enacting part though. I would say it was probably a fairly rare thing occurrence. I don't think it's a tidal wave, certainly. After all, porn-type scenarios don't exactly come up every day.
Perhaps the more difficult question is whether there is a more subtle effect whereby it creates some sort of general level of disrespect. But contrary to press reports, all the stats say that is getter better - not worse.
I don't actually think stuff like anal happens that often, just that a lot of boys want that kind of stuff. As for girls, it's difficult - most girls seem fairly coy as to whether they've viewed porn or not. On the stats - do know where you saw/got them?
In year 5 you turn 10, and in year 6 you turn 11...
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_352362.pdf
Not the sort of figure you'd expect if the greater accessibility of hardcore pornography (the availablity of softer forms being high for many years) were leading to a big problem.
Ok. Hoovering done, herself home and didn't shout at me and now settled with a cup of tea and a warm cat. A fair question, Mr. D., for preference something on the Beagle line would do very well. However to be fair on the hound and our neighbours to say nothing of our sanity I would need to find the right breeder. That said, HD2, much missed from this site, reminds me that pet dogs should be obtained from Rescue Centres and he has a very good point. So it will probably be something beagle(ish) size or, more likely, the mutt that Herself falls in love with.
In fact, both the male candidates do better with women than men in that poll on first preference, and there's no marked differences between gender in the deputy leadership
Them there's things like this: http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/22/number-rapes-police-england-wales-rises-31-percent#comments
We got very lucky with the first, who was the best of dogs. The second was a bit noisy and hyper, and she had fleas which we discovered the very night we got her (despite the RSPCA signing off that she was entirely fine).
A slightly older (one year plus) dog may have the advantage of being house-trained [one hopes] but also might have the drawback of having picked up bad habits. A good rescue place will advise you honestly about this.
When herself had her cancer my (then) firm's welfare dept. arranged and paid for "Ladies that Do", a domestic services company, to take on all housework, including washing and ironing, until Herself had fully recovered on the grounds that as a man I was incapable and anyway I had a seven year old to look after and a job to do.
Herself went into hospital on the Sunday evening, had a mastectomy on the Monday, was home on Wednesday and digging the garden on Thursday. On the Friday she phoned Welfare Dept. and told them to cancel Ladies that Do because her husband was more than capable of doing all that was required.
Sexual crimes also tend to be under-reported in victim surveys, too.
As for the link: I'd say that's the police line. How do they know that the number of rapes aren't genuinely increasing, as opposed to simply more women coming forward? They are just basing it on victim surveys.
EDIT: Also as far as I'm aware, the CSEW, like other crime surveys don't include under 16s.
How are the kittens getting on? I saw that first picture of two balls of fur but nothing since.
I don't know that we will go the full cat and dog route. The dog can certainly only happen after Thomas the Rescue has gone through the final cat flap (which, alas, I don't think will be too long). Could I really cope with two new kittens and a pup? Dunno and I am not sure I would want to find out.
My cat regularly bosses around my Border Terrier having been brought up together. They often play together too, and he is protective of her by chasing off other cats. They sometimes even hunt squirrels together, with him flushing the varmints towards her.
I'd wait if it were my kitty.
But that's not my point. Even if we have to take each year's figure and double it, the trend would still be downwards.
The level and vehemence of the Guilt Tripping on the various charity's TV adverts is just abhorrent. It needs regulated just as much as the crackdown on advertising sugary foods to kids.
If I ever acquire sufficient income that I actually have an excess, any charitable giving will be based on my own research, not guilt-tripping adverts.
Agreed. The "Third Sector" really does need a shake out which has to start by a clear out of the Charity Commission. Dump the lovies out of the latter and replace them with some honest people. Then introduce a rule that says any charity that pays anyone more than £100k isn't, it is a business. I'd also ban charities from receiving any funds from HMG xor from lobbying parliament/parliamentarians.
I find the MSM's new attack line of the SNP being a cult somewhat puzzling, particularly given support levels are now in the 60% area - if anything it's the political commentators who are showing cult like behaviour as they continue to believe their own rhetoric. At GE2015 we had the "Cult of Jim Murphy" :
http://wingsoverscotland.com/sometimes-its-just-a-spade/
The commentators have now also been caught out by Corbyn and think they can push a "Cult of Anyone but Corbyn" - these guys are becoming increasingly irrelevant as they struggle to adapt to life outside the Westminster bubble.
I've seen this: The largest difference between the sexes was shown for sexual assault, with 19.1% of women and
2.7% of men having experienced sexual assault (including attempts) since the age of 16 (Appendix
table 4.01 (1.38 Mb Excel sheet); Figure 4.1).
As for the figures, as I've said before:
The CSWE excludes under-16s.
There has been a rise in the number of rapes being reported, which shows the trend is no longer downwards in any case.
THe comparable figure for the 65% is the 30% in this report, which gives an indiciation that underreporting is not so significant as to make a mockery of the figures, although no doubt it is there. (The 65% includes other types of sexual assault outside the domestic setting.)
You can get longer content other than short-extracts, but they are usually from sites you have to sign up to/pay for. It seems that porn from these pay sites (which can range from 5 minutes to an hour or so) are being uploaded onto the 'free' sites. Narratives do exist - see cuckold porn, nannies, incest etc. That said I think the biggest change in porn (having seen some 'old' porn) is the increase in the aggressive nature towards women.
Scenario porn has always been mysogynistic, that's not changed. Outside of that, the problem now is that porn is increasingly controlled by the female performer and there is a strong feminist ideology which does not allow any form of female sexual expression which does not fit within their own agenda - so no BDSM, no rape fantasy, no DD/LG, etc. And all three of those are very, very common female paraphilias (in fact none of them would even qualify as paraphilias given how commonplace they are).
The_Apocalypse and Dair are right (although Dair, I don't think our points were the same).
The largest sites by number of hits are still YouTube-style clip sites.
There are still pay-per-view sites, catering to an older and wealthier market; frequently those with more specific interests.
The sort of camsites Dair talks about are the new entrants, and a significant part of the market (only recently would it have been appropriate to have seen them as part of the ass market). The vast majority of them are solo performers so I'm not sure it really matches TA's argument that modern porn is more aggressive, although it is clear that the YouTube-style site caries more hardcore pornography accessible to the teenager than the top shelf ever did.
A large proportion of the extra "reports" are related to historic allegations, rather than contemporary assaults. And only a tiny proportion of those are being charged and found true in the courts.
There are very good reasons why most of Europe has a stature of limitations on this stuff.
That's one of the reasons why the Guardian "Shock horror! 30% increase in rape!" referenced earlier is both misleading and irresponsible.
I'd make a comparison with the feminist drones who come on Newsnight regularly to tell us that 2 women a week are murdered by their intimate partners. That stat is a lie.
The number now rounds down to one being currently under 1.5, having been about 2.5 12-15 years ago iirc.
Not only is the number misrepresented; the direction of travel is hidden.
It would presumably be very damaging or the likes of the Fawcett Society if all their supporters suddenly realised they were becoming much safer. My hope is that the feminist windbag is about blown out.
BTW (& fpt).r Llama, I think we might have been at the same Jethro Tull concert in Southampton! One of Mrs J's favourite bands.
As for the downward trend; again the CSWE doesn't include under-16s - and given that much of changes regarding attitudes towards sex affect this demographic, that is pretty significant. The survey pretty much admits that young women in particular, are at most at risk of sexual assault. The main evidence sighted that the rise in the number of reports in rape isn't a genuine rise is victim surveys - and given that they are affected by the fact sensitive crimes tend to be under-reported, this is not an appropriate basis to claim that the rise in reported rapes isn't genuine. Otherwise, we have to ask why suddenly have reported rapes risen in the last year or so, but not over a long period if it's merely a case that reporting has improved.