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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pick Corbyn now and do it all again in three years time?
Always look on the bright side of life. That’s me. So, here’s my reason for saying Jeremy Corbyn is the best choice for Labour leader now. Because he’s the most easily dumpable in two or three years time.
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Does “Solidarity” = relinquishing even more national Sovereignty ?
"Let’s Hope For A Syriza Victory!"
http://www.socialeurope.eu/2015/01/lets-hope-syriza-victory/
Time to trade the old crystal ball in for a new one.
'The risk that the Chancellor probably has in mind is not a mild economic downturn but another major crisis, like a new global financial crash. He wants the government to be able to run up large deficits in such a crisis and to have the resources to be able to bail out financial institutions once again. However, presumably the Chancellor also thinks that the banking measures he has implemented should prevent such a crisis happening in the next decade or two, so we are talking about something 30 or 40 years hence. In that case we do not need budget surpluses: modest deficits will be sufficient to cut the current debt-to-GDP ratio by half in 30 years’ time.'
Yes, 30 to 40 years with modest deficits. Except, of course, economists like Simon Wren-Lewis argue we need large deficits to fuel spending during a recession, which we will likely have several of over the next 40 years. Given debt doubled during just one recession post-2008, this course of action will mean an ever spiralling government debt over the next 40 years.
It would be too delicious if Corbyn won and then tacked rightwards quicker than a dinghy in gale.
If, however, the nation takes to a Corbynite Labour Party a la Syriza, then JC4PM it is.
And then it got even better.
Yes.
Remind me how that turned out?
Although he might be able to get back support in Scotland, I doubt Labour can hope to gain more than about 20 seats. Which means 80+ gains in England and Wales.
I can imagine strong support here in Leyton but there is no underground hoard waiting to spring up in support of Labour across the marginals.
Then he must pull out now and not wait for the result. He can just about defend entering purely to broaden the debate, and a job well done from that perspective, but if he has no interest in actually doing the job, there is no point to him even waiting for the votes, which theoretically at least he could win.
I hope the poll will make party colleagues remember how you felt when you saw the exit poll at 10 o’clock on May 7th and look at the smirk on George Osborne’s face.
In partial defence of Mr Osborne, I really don't think he smirks as people think he does; that's just what his face looks like. He has resting smirkface.
He says he wants his party's MPs to have a free vote on everything. So essentially he won't lead...
I also find the argument that we need to be "borrowing to invest" right now interesting. What investment in wealth-generating assets should we be doing? A couple of cross-London rail schemes, perhaps? Maybe a high-speed line from north to south? Large roll-out of broadband? A trebling of road investment? Runway expansions at London and Birmingham airports? Linking the northern cities into a powerhouse hub?
We're doing all of this already, while being fiscally prudent.
So, here’s my reason for saying Jeremy Corbyn is the best choice for Labour leader now. Because he’s the most easily dumpable in two or three years time
That doesn't take account of the damage that will be done to Labour in the meantime. Firstly sane members and, especially, the saner senior figures in the party, will drift away, accelerating a process which began under Ed M. Secondly the public will, quite rightly, look on in amazement that Labour managed to find someone even less electable than Ed, which is going it a bit. You can't repair damage like that in just a few months before the election. Come to that, perhaps the Conservatives will find a way of side-stepping the Fixed Term Act and provoking an earlier election, catching Labour completely off guard at their moment of greatest weakness. It must be a temptation, and it's one which could be dressed up as a democratic good following Cameron's replacement. Even in the best scenario for Labour, do they really want to go through all this again, but this time not too long before the election?
If Labour voters want to dump their leader partway through and get a new one, they need someone as similar as possible to Ed Miliband. That someone is Andy Burnham.
Labour define themselves by what they aren't they are the anti-tory party.
The only thing the Tories think what is 'how do we get into/stay in power'.
That wasn't the case in the late 90s, through the to mid 00s.
Between now and 2020, there are plenty of elections to fight - locals and Europeans. Political parties have to be constantly campaigning - not just opposing. You have to propose an alternative - otherwise you end up being defined by what you won't do rather than what you would.
But a Corbyn who has tacked to the right would still be pretty left.
Is Burnham sigifigantly better/more electable than Ed Miliband?
Is Cooper sigifigantly better/more electable than Ed Miliband?
If the answer to both of those questions is NO then Labour have a big f-ing problem.
So there is not necessarily any expectation of 'ever spiralling debt', we must keep our spending under control and at the same time sustain the economy for the future. Spending restraint is the key to eventually controlling debt. Within that then the normal economic cycles will continue. Its not easy. Which is why the govt - the only govt with the intent - should be supported.
http://youtu.be/TwLp4GJeVl0
Maybe worth looking up on iPlayer.
I hope you're all grateful for Labour putting on such a good show over those slow summer months.
Miliband should have stayed on until September and then started the leadership campaign. It would have allowed time for reflection. But by jetting off to the sun immediately, he set in motion a process that is ripping the party apart.
I'm sure she's very nice, though.
Corbyn's flirtation is because he sees (he is afraid?) that the EU/ Eurozone are pressing for spending restraint and economic discipline.
I do not have a problem with helping Greece, whether it be bilaterally or via the IMF - a happy economically sound Greece is to our benefit. But there is the rub - any help must be matched by Greece recognising its responsibility to sound money.
*turns off evil voice*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogeOqw4dTAA
I totally fail to see the logic of the Labour Party pressing the Self-Destruct Button for 2 or 3 yrs = whilst everyone else moves onwards to the ballot box.
How can such a strategy possibly help them? Purge the moderates, have a complete meltdown, alarm every electoral horse and then decide on rehab with two yrs to go?
And that's without the Tories playing a massive Fooled You! sucker punch re the 5yr Parly thingy you mentioned.
It's insane.
In Scotland, he need to persuade Labour voters who voted SNP to come back to Labour.
I have run this scenario on Electoral Calculus:
In Scotland, I have assumed Labour gets back half the Labour defectors to SNP.
This gives LAB 28 extra seats in Scotland.
In England and Wales, I have assumed that there is effective tactical voting between Lab, LD and Grn in respective marginals. I have also assumed that Corbyn appeals to 30% of the UKIP vote that is disillusioned WWC. I haven't made any assumption about getting Labour DNVs to actually vote. That would be a bonus.
This gives LAB 37.0% to CON 37.8%.
In terms of seats CON are 12 short of a majority.
CON 314
LAB 282
LD 14
SNP 18
PC 3
Running the model on the 600 seats proposed, the Tories are 19 short of a majority (CON 282 seats, LAB 275 seats) which is strange as I thought the new 600 seats werer supposed to give the Tories an advantage.
Seems an awful lot of work considering she’ll probably be first out of the race.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11726695/Spoof-Liz-Kendall-for-Conservative-leader-campaign-opens-up-fresh-Labour-divisions.html
*innocent face*
That was a party political broadcast on behalf of Jeremy Corbyn.
That was another party political broadcast on behalf of Jeremy Corbyn.
Is everyone today in the Labour party working to ensure a Corbyn landslide?
She was so impressed she said "a future PM".. Seriously.. One to watch . I trust her judgement...(occasionally:-)
And no she's not a Labour voter..
'Does “Solidarity” = relinquishing even more national Sovereignty ?'
Solidarity = when someone has lost the argument.
Another week of this and I will have to call it for Corbyn too.
If it's between 3 useless and incompetent people vs Corbyn, I would choose Corbyn too.
Ho hum. Meantime every single person of a centrist and right wing tendency is sitting on their hands are they? Your notion of Corbyn 'winning' is for the Tories to be just short of an overall majority - thereby leaving Labour to form a loopy loop left wing alliance with the SNP. Yeah - brilliant how that worked last time.
You also suggest that Corbyn's views on immigration will go down well with the euphemistically named 'WWC'
This is Corbyn's view as expressed in a question - ''Will the Minister for once acknowledge the massive contribution made to our economy and our society by those who have migrated to live here and who have sought and gained asylum in this country, which we are bound to offer under the Geneva convention? Given his rhetoric about EU and other migration, what would he say if EU countries as a whole decided to stop British people from going there to study and to work? What would he say if they all decided that British people were a drain on their economy and put their shutters up against us? What would the rhetoric be from him and, perhaps more importantly, from his colleagues in the Daily Mail?''
All this without his friendship with middle east terrorist organisations.
The chappy is charming and so grateful to British taxpayers... He's recommending it to his friends. http://www.channel5.com/shows/benefits-britain-life-on-the-dole/episodes/episode-3-621
you should get a google on your internet, you can find out all sorts of things
It may be too late for any other outcome, but Labour need a candidate who can provide a semblance of unity to the party while giving it the space to air policy differences and while offering a firm hand of leadership. Of the four candidates, the only one who looks to me to be remotely likely to be able to do that is Yvette Cooper. Even she does not stand very good chances, but right now Labour have to take what they can find.
Unlike the next Tory leadership contest, where Priti is a shoo-in!
If I had a quid for every time I read on this site that PB tories were always wrong, never learned.
Labour are committing suicide.
"...and you end up in the grotesque chaos of a Labour member - a Labour member! - suggesting the top rate be cut to 35 per cent..."