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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two interesting UKIP defences, one against CON the other LA
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two interesting UKIP defences, one against CON the other LAB, in tonight’s local by-elections
Greystoke and Hesket on Cumbria (Con defence)
Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 35, Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrats 16, Independents 7 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 8)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 723 (53%), United Kingdom Independence Party 331 (24%), Liberal Democrats 312 (23%)
Candidates duly nominated:
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Comments
(And sorry to Harry H: a good post.)
Do we have any stats on the various parties' defensive records in local byelections since [insert arbitrary date]? Is it just me or are UKIP generally pretty poor at this lark?
What was that about 'perfidious Albion'?
Miss Cyclefree, we need a no nonsense leader. Hannibal would invade via the Channel Tunnel, Aurelian would conquer the EU by next Thursday, and Alexander would conquer it by Thursday, then keep going until he hit India.
More seriously, I've long said the EU's undemocratic and generally horrendously indefensible. The last few weeks have just borne that out. I wonder what Farron's view is of us being taken for £850m is.
Are we past Peak Corbyn?
@Morris_Dancer
Did you see my post earlier following on to your comments about Alexander the Great?
Edited extra bit: sorry for running off, incidentally. I have heard of JFC Fuller's book, but have never read it. I do know that Philip II was a top chap and would've invaded Persia if he hadn't been killed. His military innovations were phenomenally intelligent, and transformed Macedonia from a backwater to the world's foremost military power.
This is worth a look as well. An old BBC documentary (running time about one hour):
In the footsteps of Alexander the Great [BBC] - Son of God (1 of 4)
https://vimeo.com/45275170
Oh, wait - most people will have voted before the result of the leadership ballot was announced. Better to call it as Clegg's final set of defeats.
Cheers for the recommendation. Not enough time to watch it now, but I'll try and remember to check it tomorrow.
In this case, do we need to "uprate" success in London when judging nationwide chances?
Also, apparently, although Yvette is way behind Burnham and Corbyn on nominations, she is apparently getting a LOT of second places so she also might be in with a stronger chance than it seems.
I've had some dealings with local Labour Councillors over the years and certainly wouldn't think of them as "hard Left" (whatever that means). Indeed, hard working local representatives would fit the description nicely. I'm not sure how well Newham is run though the services themselves are very good, the LOBO situation is financially catastrophic and the Borough has to find £50 million in savings.
For all that, Labour won all 60 seats in 2014 and won them easily. In my Ward, the three Labour candidates polled 75% of the vote.
There is no concept of estoppel in EU law. Reasoning akin to estoppel has been adopted by the Court of Justice to explain why directives can have direct effect against member states, since otherwise a state could rely in national courts on its own failure to implement a directive (Pubblico Ministero v Ratti [1980] 1 CMLR 96, 110). It is, however, often said that the protection of legitimate expectations is a general principle of EU law (Di Lenardo Adriano Srl v Ministero Del Commercio Con l'Estero [2006] 3 CMLR 33). However, the concept has generally been confined to the expectations of private individuals, rather than member states. The circumstances must give rise to an unequivocal expectation. It has also been said that no legitimate expectation can arise where the substantive benefit is capable of being altered by the EU institutions in the exercise of their discretionary power.
None of the conditions for a legitimate expectation under EU law seems present in this case. The UK is a state, not an individual. If article 122(2)'s initial use for Eurozone bailouts was lawful, then no one could have a legitimate expectation it would not be lawfully used for the same purpose again. The recital was to the effect that the use of article 122(2) was no longer necessary because of the creation of the ESM, but the ESM cannot be used in this urgent case. Likewise, the recital stated article 122(2) "should not be used for such purposes". It did not state that it would not.
In any event, it is possible to defeat a legitimate expectation where it is necessary and proportionate etc..
' Ed Miliband declares he was ahead of his time as a PM - like gay rights used to be; http://t.co/U2GVHW7TtO'
Didn't realize Ed did comedy.
Genuine question: What should I know about Jowell to put me off her?
Aren't you in Birmingham now?
Do you know why the locals (who I have a lot of time for) call it "Brummagem"?
2 Galloway
3 Bibi
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/uk.transport.london/kenley/uk.transport.london/S6EDzPHWQds/_1nnI0Cb8HoJ
I kind of split my time between Coventry, Brum and London (well, by London I mean Ilford!).
Not heard of Brummagem before!
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17460263.2014.926287?journalCode=rsih20#.VaglEblRGAI
You obviously did my bit of London in November - not at its best then.
My grandad(1) was from Brum - he told me why the locals call it Brummagem (at least among themselves).
It's a slurred version of "Bromwichham" or something. Note that you'll find "West Bromwich" in the vicinity, and "Castle Bromwich".
(1) The best grandad ever - no discussion.
EDIT: @runnymede - well done that man!
My goodness, she really doesn't get it.
Labour's problem is that they think they are right and believe that either everyone secretly agrees with them, or should do and will eventually come round to their senses.
They are wrong. On all counts.
Seem to recall her doing a Newsnight thing where she got to talk to women at a Tory conference, and her brain just couldn't seem to cope with the fact women could be in any way conservative at all since this was somehow inherently contradictory.
I find it hard to imagine going through life so caught up in a bubble like that, but perhaps I've been unusual in having always been surrounded by "diverse" viewpoints (in the genuine meaning of the word, rather than superficially that people have different skin colours).
Corbyn - 53
Burnham - 51
Cooper - 39
Kendall - 10
Kendall is now fast closing in on Diane Abbott's tally of nominations from 2010.
Be afraid. Be very afraid. Unbelievable as it may seem, Boris Johnson has a real chance of being elected London mayor today. Zoe Williams and other Londoners imagine what it would be like if this bigoted, lying, Old Etonian buffoon got his hands on our diverse and liberal capital
http://bit.ly/1PAvysE
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/621805686146600961
And a lot of people don't mix much outside their social and work stratum. Although I have friends from many backgrounds, I'm often the "odd one out" in my friends' friendship groups - I'm surprised by just how homogeneous they are for a lot of my friends in London, bearing in mind that cities in particular bring a big mix of people into very close proximity. But it's quite possible to spend your life hanging out with investment bankers and management consultants, and just as possible to be surrounded by arts graduates in insecure employment who spend a big chunk of their free time out at SWP-organised demos. And that's before considering religious/ethnic self-segregation, which is pretty prevalent.
For them, it's the other way round; they think the only people that are 'normal' are the ones who share the same opinions.
Boris as mayor? Unthinkable. It just exposes democracy as a sham, especially if people don't vote for Ken - he's the best thing in politics
If people don't vote for your preferred candidate, democracy is a sham - good to know!
Bonnie Greer's take is also interesting, in that it's not that Boris is a racist in her eyes that is the really bad thing, not as such, it's that London is racist and he'd make it worse by being open about being racist.
How they must feel about him winning a second time, the poor devils, and if not for Cameron doing better than expected, he'd have been running for leadership of a political party by now, and placing well even if he didn't win.
Some people have to go on-line, to be in an echo chamber – with Zoe, it follows her around.
Or imagine living in the world of the Telegraph commentariat. There is vigorous debate...but between blue and purple.
So there is an impression of heterogeneity, but only in a narrow spectrum. Anything which lies beyond that spectrum is just insane or stupid or can't really exist ... it is somehow beyond human comprehension.
The "Boris becoming mayor means the sky would fall in" piece that TSE links to is a great example of that: it polls the view of a cross-section of Londoners, of various hues, but for all of whom Mayor Bojo was unthinkable. Put them in a room with each other and they would believe they are all normal (even if they disagree with each other to some extent) and diverse and therefore somehow representative. And yet they would be so far disconnected from what the "average" Londoner is like, that they couldn't even comprehend how the most popular politician in London could win an election (albeit narrowly).
Ouch, that's gotta hurt?
*My math isn't great.
Tim Farron = Buzz Lightyear
I can't believe that Telegraph comments' section think Cameron is some liberal lefty. They appear to think anything to left of UKIP is socialism. It's quite bizarre. Likewise with CIF, whose readers always seem like they are about to rise up and start a workers' revolution, seem to think anyone whose politics does not match Jeremy Corbyn's is a Tory FGS.
"The Streatham MP said Labour should not be "screaming at the electorate" after its poor general election performance. He spoke out after Labour was hit by a row over its stance on welfare cuts.
He also criticised Jeremy Corbyn, amid reports that he is doing well in the race to be Labour leader."
Arf - The force is strong with Obi Wan Kenorbyn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33561504
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-33541502?SThisFB&&fb_ref=Default#38;fb_ref=Default?SThisFB ! Arf.
I hear - from LD sources - that Labour owes its surprise loss there this year to UKIP.
'Lib Dems smash the Tories in byelection in Kingston.'
Consolation prize for losing the parliamentary seat.
I can't think of any other reason why she'd forget a mortgage.
http://metro.co.uk/2011/01/19/jermaine-pennant-forgot-he-owned-porsche-629935/
In Gower, the former Labour MP Martin Caton stood down.
In the Vale of Clwyd, Chris Ruane was a well-liked former headmaster of a school in the constituency. He had however a spot of expenses bother in 2012 (“I have acted completely within the rules”). Maybe that is what did for him, as these North Walian constituencies are usually very loyal.
I had thought the seat was Labour’s till Ruane retired.