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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfeld’s Local By-Election Preview : July 9th 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfeld’s Local By-Election Preview : July 9th 2015
Thorniewood on North Lanarkshire (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 41, Scottish National Party 26, Independents 2, Cumbernauld Independent Councillors Alliance 1 (Labour majority of 12)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour: 1,623, 1,443 (71%)
Scottish National Party: 1,057 (24%)
Conservative:
0
Comments
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/619195203128303617
Plaid Cymru and Llais Gwynedd the only candidates in Gwynedd?
Well, we had a surprise LD gain from Tories last week I think it was, so maybe the SNP can not win something right now, even if its only a council seat.
No matter what people think about unemployed people, people REALLY hate the sense that low-paid people in work are being singled out for harsh treatment (people who are "doing the right thing" but just haven't had enough luck), and if Labour are even a semi-decent opposition (a big "if" admittedly) and relentlessly point out the effects of the Budget, I think the perceptions of the Budget will be different by the time the changes take effect.
http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/Budgets 2015/Summer/Crawford_public_finances.pdf
My favourite bullet point:
" New fiscal mandate
– surplus on public sector net borrowing in 2019–20
– once this is achieved in 2019–20, run a surplus each subsequent year
as long as the economy remains in ‘normal times "
I think Osbo has 3 excuses already in the bag:
Option A - Greece
Option B - China
Option C - SNP's fault, if the Daily Mail ran a leader - Alex Salmond was responsible for the fall in world oil prices, I fear many of it's readers would believe it.
Option D - If all else fails blame it on Labour and their failure to control public spending.
Is that 3 or 4 excuses, I'm not sure as my crap Scottish education is kicking in again. Can I get a job at the Treasury or the OBR please ?
Who can forget the 2007 budget, when Gordon Brown decided to punch poor people in the knackers to give the middle classes a tax cut being loudly cheered by Labour MPs on the day.
Ditto the 2012 Omnishambles budget. Led to a period of over 2 years where the Tories didn't lead in the polls.
Tax credit changes in 2017 can't be measured against whatever the personal tax allowance or living wage is because we don't know the rates and amounts on one side of the equation that far in advance.
The political danger of banging on incessantly about tax credits is that it emphasises an image of the 'welfare party'; a party that wants everyone on some form of dole.
Mind you, writing a thread for Sunday, I've found an astonishing polling stat
That poll was in April 2015, by ICM.
A poll that was rubbished by the likes of May2015 who said ICM should rerun that poll as it was clearly nonsense, as it had the Tories with a 6% lead.
I think once wage rises are taken into account across the board, there won't be many people who find themselves worse off.
We need to drop this idea of a static economy and jobs market.
Someone who is earning the minimum wage is set to see their wages rise by 6.5% per year. A couple working full time (75h/w between them) would see their gross income rise from £25,350 today to £35,100 in 2020, a full 39% increase in their joint income. If Labour are going to try and attack this as somehow hitting the poor then they had better be prepared to look like idiots.
IDS accused of unfairly targeting Catholics with 'two-child' tax credit policy
http://ind.pn/1KYQ0yK
They just have to be aware like everyone else two and it's over. Their faith is fine, feel free, follow your belief just don't expect me and others to pay for it.
In the Last 30 mins Greece has handed over a new reform plan....
In the absence of professional polling of members, CLP nominations are the best clue we have as to how the voting will go, and JC is now 2nd, behind Andy and ahead of Yvette, with 19 nominations. Liz is miles behind on just 4. While I think you're right to ignore social media polls, I think CLP noms are likely to be much better predictors.
But, if anything, going purely on CLPs underestimates JC's chances, because non-members such as Greens and TUSC (as well as left-wingers not aligned with any party) are much more likely to sign up to vote for JC, who's offering radical anti-austerity policies, than for more of the same with Burnham or Cooper.
JC is value at these odds IMO, Liz is still too pricey at 6.
Disclaimer: I'm still heavily long on JC, slightly green on Yvette & Andy, slightly red on Liz
It would help if they built a front bench on merit, instead of forcing themselves to have a 50-50 gender split.
Why do they shoot themselves in the foot like this? It's like Spurs having a policy of always having a quota of local players in the team, even though they are not as good as other players on the bench. (Wait a minute, they do this already - which is why we are crap)
'FULL STATEMENT FROM THE MANNAN FAMILY IN SYRIA
We release this statement to confirm that, indeed we are in the Islamic State.
A land that is free from the corruption and oppression of man made law and is governed by the shariah, the perfect and just laws of Allah subhanAllah wa Ta'la.
All 12 of us and why should this number be shocking, when there are thousands and thousands of Muslims from all corners of the world that are crossing over land and sea everyday to come to the Islamic State?
That are willingly leaving the so called freedom and democracy that was forced down our throat in the attempt to brainwash Muslims to forget about their powerful and glorious past and now present.
Or is it shocking that those attempts have clearly failed? That regardless of being born and bred in the west, the epitome of democracy, our Islam was not washed away? And despite the totalitarian rules that are in place, Muslims are still awaking to their obligations?
Don't be shocked when we say that none of us were forced against our will. In fact it is outrageous to think that an entire family could be kidnapped and made to migrate like this. It wasn't by the command of a single person in the family but by the command of the Khalifah of the Muslims.
Who has called all Muslims, whether young or old, single or in families, to make hijrah to the state of Islam. A land that has established the Shariah, in which a Muslim doesn't feel oppression when practising their religion.
In which a parent doesn't feel the worry of losing their child to the immorality of society. In which the sick and elderly do not wait in agony, tolerating the partiality of race or social class.
Alhamdulillah for the establishment of the Khilafah.
We say to those that are concerned for our safety to put your hearts at rest for we feel safer than we have ever felt before.
We call all Muslims, to rush to the command of your khalif. Race to your state. Race to what will give you honour in this life and the hereafter. Hasten to the obedience of Allah.
Do not fear losing the life you built for yourselves by making hijrah but fear losing your Imaan and Islam whilst residing in darul kufr and not making hijrah.
We pray Allah saves from such a fate and guides us all to be obedient to His commands. Ameen.
The Mannan Family in the Islamic State'
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/619246558698012672
Bloomberg - First Sighting of Drachma in the Wild, Via Credit-Card Mystery http://bloom.bg/1HQ8Nxg
Compared with maintaining or increasing tax credits, Increasing the minimum wage increases the baseline costs of taking on a new employee. Doesn't this raise barriers to competition with large firms that have economies of scale on their side?
True. But "reducing welfare benefit" isn't quite as polemic as "stealing much-loved candy from poor defenceless babies".
Source is a Greek friend.
As I say, I'm not opposed to it, but even as uncareful language is indeed used to tug on peoples' emotions to get them angry about removing something, so outrage at that attempt at manipulation can get so overblown (particularly where no one is really getting that mad because of the slant in terminology) used I think people need to calm down at some of that uncareful language, as it can just be bloody irritating. Yes, even when it is blatant - I support the idea of the bedroom tax, and I don't have to insist on calling it what it actually is to do so. I'm not even saying don't object or point out if something is incorrect, but it's not always unreasonable for people to mix things up, and all sides rename things to try to gain partisan advantage from it, so some of those (I said, 'some' not all or all on here!) who get upset at it have no right to complain.
@LadPolitics: Could any of these be the new BBC Political Editor?
10/1 @joeyjonessky
33/1 @IsabelHardman
33/1 @stephenkb http://t.co/OH9l10ZsnS
Are the German's softening their stance yet? I assume a statement out soon will be all 'welcome new proposals, much to consider in coming days' etc, regardless of whether a deal is coming or not.
UKIP continue transitioning far to the left of Labour. No bandwagon they won't jump on?
Watching QT, Anna Soubry scrubs up well!
(Couldn't work out if she was in favour or opposed)
On the one hand you have the SNP/Labour public sector welfarists who don't give damn about the 80% + who work in the private sector, and on the other you have the very wealthy pretending they understand the vast majority's circumstances.
I'll await her subtle dig at Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/ibigdazz/status/618940752400396288
Nah.. nothing can beat EMWNBPM....
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/07/09/burnham-backs-living-wage-for-under-25s_n_7763324.html?icid=maing-grid7|ukt2|dl1|sec3_lnk6&pLid=364360
A 50% increase in national minimum wage with no reduction in tax credits introduced immediately is absurd.
I just can't wrap my head around the "bedroom tax" all of zero impact in the real world - where did you get this idea from? For many of the people it affected, who tended to be living a lifestyle based on very tight budgets, it has had a serious impact. Although in principle it encouraged downsizing, in practice suitable accommodation was rarely available. Besides, if you're such a fan of the policy, sure you can see that if it really was of "zero impact" (because it didn't affect anybody, or didn't save any money, or didn't encourage any downsizing) then it was utterly pointless?
(I also don't buy "Most people were in favour of it with a few exceptions" - where is your evidence for that? Polling? We all know that polling has its flaws but it still beats anecdotal evidence "Few exceptions" is surely hyperbole?)
A bit like watching Paul Merson on Soccer. Saturday
I think it's pretty optimistic to assume that this is going to get past his own party, not to mention the difficulty of getting the whole package endorsed by the other Eurozone countries at this late stage.
Sometimes politicians reiterate rubbish because it's just the kind of nonsense they heard second- or third-hand themselves, and because they have no practical experience and haven't done the hard slog.
The lack of practical experience is a common problem across all parties but UKIP seem to have particular difficulty with the hard slog. Inexperience? Paucity of talent? I sometimes wonder if they are so far from the outskirts of power that they simply can't identify credible sources, and don't even know what to bone up on or where to turn to get to grips with it.
What does she think that will do to EU immigration?
Agree he has been impressive tonight.
Seeing vox pops on this it really seems to have got people thinking about whether they really can afford a larger family.
The result of this is that fewer children will be born directly into "poverty" - however you choose to measure it. Surely a good thing?
It's cretinous to put one of the highest minimum wages in Europe into action if you are trying to cut immigration.