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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four hours and 26 minutes after exit poll Betfair punters rated a CON majority as a 28% shot
Two months to the day after the election and people are still talking about the outcome which I would argue was a bigger shock than what happened in 1992. Then there was just one poll that was showing a Tory leader. In the run up to May 7th quite a number of the phone polls had reasonable CON margins including a couple which had a blue lead of 6%.
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Let's all talk about how clever we were on a bet two months ago instead
Tax free lump sum on pensions abolished from tomorrow???
Rather the real story is the failure or refusal of a sufficient number of Muslims (however much of a minority they may be) in the UK (and in other countries) to integrate into the West such that those people constitute a real threat to the rest of us. And what we can and should be doing about this.
However: the movements in that video seem rather over the top. Perhaps they need to do that to simulate the G-forces?
My son is flying to the US on Thursday. He's made his ESTA application. Currently the site is not allowing him to pay - technical issues. If this continues, any idea how else one can pay?
Or my three winning tips the last weekend
[Admittedly, I fluked all of those three. But if a man is pushed out of a plane and lands in the Playboy mansion swimming pool, he ought not complain].
Miss Plato, that looks crazy. I do think VR could work well with racing games, as it's primarily forward-facing, but checking mirrors and getting rain on the visor could fit nicely.
Mr. Jessop, thanks. Just over a day since I first knew anything was wrong. All rather sudden.
On ESTA: if you get no joy here and are on Twitter, try asking there. Firms/organisations do monitor it and often offer advice quickly (tweets about something being rubbish are bad publicity). Sorry I can't offer more direct help.
I do wish there was a contact number one could call in these situations. All this online stuff is all very well but if it doesn't work one's stuffed.
As for the second paragraph, that is an impossibility. When you have the levels of immigration that have led to the number of Muslims in the UK, there will be a certain amount that won't integrate. That was what Enoch Powell was saying and the demonisation of him and the refusal to listen is why we are where we are
It's a question of numbers arriving, not anything to do with the Koran or Islam particularly. Too many immigrants too quickly and this is what happens and would have happened if it had been Hindus, Jews, Mormons or any other religion you care to name
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/248125
"Citigroup Is Testing Its Own Bitcoin: 'Citicoin' "
Wowzers - one of the reforms in the budget tomorrow is a real curve ball. More to be revealed on #Newsnight tonight.
'The scene of the 'no' greek is good for the electoral interests of the PP always endures Brussels to Athens. Otherwise, what could be understood as a drop of pants - Accept a haircut and unconditional restructuring...of the debt it would have a clear rebound effect in Spain.'
It's as good as English as She is Spoke.
The quotes in his speech were true and he encouraged temporary workers for jobs that needed filling rather than immigration en masse
It is the combination of those 3 factors which has led us to the mess we're in because they happened at a time when the Muslim world as a whole was being riven by the development and spread of a particularly vile strain of fundamentalist thought which has led to many Muslim countries being riven with hatred and violence.
As for ISIS flags outside Parliament, while British phlegm is to be applauded sometimes this sort of stiff upper lip/keep calm and carry on approach is not praiseworthy but just plain weakness and fear. A bit more "we're not going to put up with your bullying nonsense" would be welcome, frankly.
Powell was a very able speaker and parliamentarian, a capable minister and an outstanding linguist. He was also not somebody whose unsupported word should be trusted.
Peter Spiegel @SpiegelPeter 1h1 hour ago
Just noticed my summit press credentials don't have today's date. Says "July 2015". Bad sign? Month of summits?
Raoul Ruparel @RaoulRuparel 1h1 hour ago
Raoul Ruparel retweeted CNBC Now
Interesting if its an EU summit not Euro summit seems far more likely to be about #Grexit
Cameron might be away for a long time.
I wonder what his position would be, Grexit is the only solution to the crisis and it's a hand grenade that can explode anytime, politically it will be better for the Tories to have the Grexit explosion now rather than closer to the next election.
Sarcasm and laughter are quite good responses to such people. There is plenty of material available to undermine them. What we lack are people with the courage to say what needs saying.
Chris Mullin when he was a journalist and campaigning for the Birmingham 6 and others was wonderful at pricking the self-importance and pomposity of retired judges and other lawyers completely unable or unwilling to accept that the legal system had failed in that and other cases. It was a joy to watch. He was sharp, merciless and funny. Someone with that approach and real knowledge about the nonsense these people speak could demolish most of the "Muslim" spokesmen in no time.
I say this because, without agreeing with the 'they're not Muslims' line from Cameron et al, they obviously are Muslims, I don't think it is fair to blame the Koran any more than out is to blame atheism for Stalins gulags
It is the nature of conflict that causes the trouble we have, and that will never go away as long as humans exist. That's not the fault of the Muslims, ive no doubt it would be the same if a similar number of Christians migrated to Pakistan. The madness is we literally invited it, despite warnings spelling out the precise nature of the danger.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/08/jim-murphy-loses-his-seat-now-in-what-is-now-scotterdammerung/
This was after the Conservatives had held their top four most vulnerable seats and taken a string of seats off the Lib Dems.
7/7 was initially being reported as an electrical power surge. I was staggered to see the power of home made explosives,even now we have very limited defence against a tube attack.
I do of course still use the tubes, and fly, so no win for the terrorists.I was in London the day after the attacks, and it was very sombre, and moving.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
The Daily Mail identified the constituent as being Druscilla Cotterill. Looks like Powell was largely truthful with the exception of the excrement through the letterbox which happened to someone else on the street and was possibly unrelated to race.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
What is needed is people spelling out facts e.g. Mohammed using beheading to kill his enemies and why this is now being copied by IS and others and asking "Is this something to be copied?" (if indeed Mohammed is the exemplar of the perfect life) and, if not, why not? Are there other things which he did which should not now be copied? And so on. Pressing people (like the Oxford professor who refused to criticise stoning of women) why they are unable to do that and how they reconcile that with the university's code of ethics which will doubtless have some gender equality guff in it which everyone will ignore when it suits them. There is no end to the hypocrisies and intellectual contortions these people would get tied up in if only they were exposed.
But underneath all the politeness, reason and integrity, there needs to be real anger at these people, cold anger at the vileness of their views, and a ferocious determination to expose them and not let them get away with the lies, half-truths, evasions and self-pitying bullying and grievance-mongering that we've put up with for far too long.
And you can certainly blame Communism for Stalin's gulags.
To deny this is to fly in the face of facts. Facts don't go away, even if they are inconvenient.
We've given government too much power over the last 100 odd years, and it's time to take it back.
I remember that it was my daughter's end of term day and hugging her and my other children very tightly when I got home.
And I remember learning in the following days that one of the victims was a young trainee hairdresser at my mother's hairdresser, Sanrizz, and her saying how sad it was to see an In Memoriam poster: a young man like many others just caught in the wrong place at the wrong time because worthless scum chose evil.
Tom Nuttall @tom_nuttall 11m11 minutes ago
Rumours flying of all sorts of summitology - EG phone call tomo, physical EG Fri/Sat, euro summit and poss full EU summit Sunday. #whoknows
And what if your vendor refuses it and demands money issued only by Barclay's ?
And what happens to the money issued by the bank if that bank collapses ?
There were many reasons why banks were not allowed to issue their own money.
We all have a memory and a tale to tell,and the quote is accurate, but how do we stop it, I have no idea or suggestions.
Should be on replay - stunning first person accounts.
BTW, Gaddafi for all his buffoonery also was a moderate Muslim who rejected the Hadith although he corrected himself later under pressure from religious scholars and look where Libya is today... Who opened the door to fundamentalism in that country? In my view somebody like McCain is just as much a fundamentalist as Al Baghdadi. They are like two symbiotic parasites that feed off each other.
I would predict by the latter part of this century there will be an official Muslim enclave somewhere in Britain
The incident that had the most immediate effect on me was the Hatfield train crash. I had recently met an Australian lass in Edinburgh, and she had come down to stay with me. I had seen her off to Cambridge station that morning, and she was going south to change to an Edinburgh train.
That lunchtime, I heard of a train crash on the ECML. I tried phoning her, but could get no answer. My colleagues in the cubicle all searched the web for news, and it was a good ten minutes before we discovered the accident was south of where she would have joined the train. But those minutes were hell.
As it happens she had caught two trains prior to the one that crashed.
We survived the Blitz. Terrorist outrages are hideous, and the deaths lamented. But the easiest way for them to destroy us as a society is if we descend to their level.
(dons flameproof coat).
Agree that the Libya intervention has turned out to be very ill-judged. Was McCain very much in favour? I thought the US was rather hands off. I'm not sure I agree that he is the same as Al Baghdadi: I don't think McCain has ever advocated stoning or the murder of homosexuals or the rape and enslavement of women.
I can't see us defeating Isis that way, we won't even bang up people who go to Syria for training and come back here, or drape themselves in Isis flags outside parliament
The problem is the enemy is in our society as well as in the Middle East.
Liz Kendall @leicesterliz 8h8 hours ago
The Sunday Trading Act works: retailers can trade, customers can shop, shopworkers can spend time with families. Why change it? @UsdawUnion
Changing the rules to disrupt the lives of millions of non extremist believers is exactly the sort of over reaction the extremists want.
We have to remember that Labour will be facing some of the challenges as the last election; The SNP question and the competence question.
As an aside, I've recently learnt that fabric softener can make washing less flame retardant.
Thanks. I think all countries have a sort of exceptionalist view about themselves, to a greater or lesser extent. Think about La Gloire and France, for instance.
And all of them turn a blind eye to bits of their own history which don't match the myth, sometimes a necessary myth.
Still, I don't think McCain is to blame. The idea of American exceptionalism, of America as a "shining city on a hill" came from the original Puritan settlers back in the 17th century.
Mind you stopping CofE teaching may stem socialisms last refuge (a joke).
It does make me wonder how Tories in 2005 and Labour supporters in 1992 felt - losing three elections or more has to be really rough, to recognise even if the opposition are not great you failed to beat them.
First Communion and Bar Mitzvahs are a fundamental part of two major religions in the UK and they do no harm (putting aside my own antipathetical view of religions as a whole for a moment). To ban them is counter to everything we are supposed to believe in in this country.
What we have to do is say: these are our beliefs. We are tolerant, but if your beliefs go against our fundamental beliefs, then perhaps you would be best living elsewhere. Unfortunately we have, in my mind at least, gone too far in placating people whose beliefs conflict with ours. The cartoons being a classic example.
There are things we can do: whilst improving the life of the poor and/or immigrants will give some in those communities less reason to feel aggrieved, we will never get rid of the lone nutters rallying for a cause.
I think the recent horrific murders in Tunisia were done by an engineering student, and some of the 9/11 terrorists were similarly trained. Sadly it isn't even about intelligence.
Basically: we will never get rid of terrorism, sadly. We can try to stop the cancer becoming fatal.
But.
The easiest way for them to destroy us as a society is if we let them destroy our society. And the way to do that is to allow those who would limit what we can say to do so, to allow those who want separate enclaves subject to different laws to create them, to allow those who want to be treated as "community leaders" to be treated as such, to allow those who want to limit what their daughters can do and be to have such control etc. That is how a society gets undermined - not by bombs - but by an insidious undermining of our laws and values and ideas for some of our citizens so that there are communities who are here physically but in all important respects are not part of British society and are living according to norms and values so different, so incompatible that it is like having drops of oil in water.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/making-lemonade/#more-72698
Most of the political commentators were also wrong footed in Scotland, the Guardian’s Kevin McKenna was one of the few who understood what was happening in Scotland from the outset of the GE2015 campaign. I think the commentators fell into the trap of listening to each other and party strategists and failing to engage with voters at a grassroots level.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/give-all-isis-sympathisers-a-free-flight-to-syria-and-youve-solved-the-problem-says-ukip-candidate-10144886.html
Former Scotland Yard counter terror chief today
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11722736/77-anniversary-Britain-should-charter-flight-to-take-wannabe-jihadists-to-Syria-says-former-counter-terror-chief.html
And all of them turn a blind eye to bits of their own history which don't match the myth, sometimes a necessary myth.
Still, I don't think McCain is to blame. The idea of American exceptionalism, of America as a "shining city on a hill" came from the original Puritan settlers back in the 17th century.
For sure. Every nation/ group is an "invention" predicated on "myths"... Some are more flexible in their mindset and tolerant than others... I think the most deluded are those that believe themselves to be completely "free" but are most constrained in their thinking... To return to Islam - Muhammad was a statesman, a social reformer, a businessman, a general and a prophet... Baghdadi is an intellectual worm that slinks in the mud of false Hadiths surrounded by zombies.
Ah, should have clicked the link!
But your second sentence does not logically follow from the first. Where you have A, B and C (items in the same category e.g. food) and C is harmful but A and B are not, a sensible risk assessment would be to get rid of C and leave A and B alone. It is one of the more foolish delusions of our age to elevate non-discrimination as the most important value, especially when discrimination is on the basis of relevant matters and necessary.
At least in WW2 the enemy was 'over there' and it was agreed (eventually) that something had to be done. Perhaps we should be viewing IS similarly, but as long as we think there is a sufficient buffer between us and them it's unlikely that we'll do anything of consequence.
I think it's why the Med migrant crisis is potentially catastrophic for any incumbent government. An attack committed by someone born here is one thing; an attack carried out by someone allowed to enter the country from overseas is quite another.
What I would like to come out of today is acceptance that four selfish goons have just spent ten years dead. Not in the company of their allotted virgins. But if their religion has any purpose, then in agonising torment. The first ten years of an eternity of such torment.
And for today to have any meaning, I would want that to be spelt out in every mosque in Friday prayers.
@JGForsyth: How Cameron intends to ease the hunting ban by @melissakite1 http://t.co/1qSdX4Xyar
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/muslim-leader-isis-supporting-brits-disenfranchised-6018357