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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer Yes and the Tories never fully recovered the level they were at in many polls before that Budget

    Not that I pay too much attention to these things, but didn't the Tories hit 39 or 40% in a post 2015 election opinion poll?
    After the pollsters updated their methodologies!

    By this time after GE2010, we had already had about thirty new polls. So far after GE2015, we've had five.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Nice teaching staff they have in The Islamic State of Lancs

    'A junior school teacher has been banned from the classroom for life after posting dozens of sick, racist tweets encouraging the murder of non-Muslims and praising the beheading of British aid worker Alan Henning.

    Mother-of-one Nargs Bibi, 31, who worked at Knowsley Junior School in Oldham for three years, posted 40 offensive and malicious messages immediately after Mr Henning's brutal murder by Jihadi John.'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3147288/Junior-school-teacher-banned-LIFE-spewing-racist-bile-Twitter-including-praising-beheading-Alan-Henning-urging-murder-non-Muslims.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Mortimer As RobD states that was 2 years into the Parliament, this is in the government's 'honeymoon' period and with pollsters having changed their methodogies
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    EPG Indeed and some ringfencing is not even popular, like ringfencing overseas aid
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited July 2015
    EPG said:

    calum said:

    It would be interesting to periodically survey PB users political leanings using one of the NOJAM tables, as opposed to party affiliations I think the following should cover most basis:

    - left wing
    - centre left
    - centrist
    - centre right
    - right wing

    I would guess it is very different.

    Readers would be like the British public, a mild centre-right plurality but with very few at all self-identifying as right-wing.
    Commenters would be about 75 centre-right or right-wing.
    I guess because betting is an individualistic activity.
    Not sure it makes so much sense to think the PB is "inherently" right-wing, either because of the betting or for any other reason. The below-the-line commentariat here used to have a pretty strong left/centre-left/liberal tendency, though things had evened themselves out by - hm, 2010ish? (Sean Fear would be one of the best people to ask on this.)

    Incidentally the recent guest posts have all been very good. I would love to see the likes of Morus (Greg Callus) or Yellow Submarine resurface again, if you're lurking out there folks. TSE and David Herdson are Tories, as is their right, and are very good at what they do, but some more above-the-line counterbalance would be welcome. Don Brind was a nice pick by OGH; I wish we saw more of Henry G Manson as his "Labour internals" pieces are obviously well-informed.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,737
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer They recovered enough to win in 2015 but even then they did not poll the 38%, 39% and 40% they recorded in several polls in early 2012

    The Tories did poll 38% (37.8% to be precise) in GB in the election. Polls typically exclude NI, so that is the fairer comparison.
    And let us not forget, Rob is the King of Crossover. Or should it be, the Pilot of Crossover? If anyone would know the polls, it would be Rob.

    The Beast of Crossover surely? (With apologies to Dennis Skinner)

  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stodge Yes ringfencing has been Blair's greatest mistake

    Five and a bit years is enough time to take responsibility for one's party's actions in government.
    The radicalism and purpose of Thatcher is completely absent from Cameron, who has no idea why he wants to be Prime Minister, except that it is an Eton lark (I mean this in the nicest possible way).
    Ringfencing is a good way to appear nice while accepting that a long-term fiscal direction doesn't exist for this government, except welfare cuts that nobody has any idea how to implement.
    Rubbish. Ringfencing health has not stopped it undergoing 20 billion of efficiency savings and health inflation is much higher than the norm.
    http://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/NAO_briefing_Delivering_efficiency_savings_NHS.pdf

    http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/sites/files/kf/field/field_publication_file/the-nhs-productivity-challenge-kingsfund-may14.pdf
    ''The unprecedented slowdown in the growth of NHS funding in England
    since 2010 has meant that the NHS has had to pursue the most ambitious
    programme of productivity improvement since its foundation in order to
    close the gap between need and available funding.''
    Misrepresenting Cameron vis a vis Thatcher is pretty pathetic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    O/T.. not sure that I approve of the iPads being used to record the English MPs votes. Why not have the tellers do this? Should be obvious which ones the SNP are due to their incessant clapping :p
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    edited July 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer As RobD states that was 2 years into the Parliament, this is in the government's 'honeymoon' period and with pollsters having changed their methodogies

    They had to change their methodologies because they were inaccurate reflections of the real result. You probably don't want to be conflating policies with the polls from the last five years with any degree of accuracy.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    A wonderfully pleasant and fresh evening in London Town after the heat of the past 36 hours.

    My critique of Osborne (and I have to say Coalition) economic policy was the absurdity of ring-fencing certain areas of Government expenditure. The concept of "sacred cows" notwithstanding, it seems hard to argue that if local Government can make efficiency savings without, so some say, impairing front-line service delivery, the same should be true of the NHS, Police Authorities and everyone else.

    As for benefits, we spend around £160 billion of which £75 billion is or are pensions. If that is sacrosanct, the proposed cut is £12 billion off a budget of £85 billion which will be interesting.

    The issue with the NHS is that demand is going up every year so while the spending is ringfenced, it still is making, and needs to make, efficiencies each year just to stay still.

    In my view, a lot of Councils waste money. A lot of them put Council Tax up by the maximum amount each year. If you look at how a few councils have been able to cut Council Tax by making smart savings it shows you what can be done.

    As for pensioners, I don't see why they don't fold all the various benefits into the state pension. That way they wouldn't have to worry about means testing as it would be taxable.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer As RobD states that was 2 years into the Parliament, this is in the government's 'honeymoon' period and with pollsters having changed their methodogies

    They had to change their methodologies because they were inaccurate reflections of the real result. You probably don't want to be conflating policies with the polls from the last five years with any degree of accuracy.
    Yeah, my point was to suggest that the Tories were probably higher prior to GE2015, and it is only by changing their methodologies, that they have gotten closer to the truth.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    RobD said:

    O/T.. not sure that I approve of the iPads being used to record the English MPs votes. Why not have the tellers do this? Should be obvious which ones the SNP are due to their incessant clapping :p

    Are they still doing that? How dreadfully naff.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142

    EPG said:

    calum said:

    It would be interesting to periodically survey PB users political leanings using one of the NOJAM tables, as opposed to party affiliations I think the following should cover most basis:

    - left wing
    - centre left
    - centrist
    - centre right
    - right wing

    I would guess it is very different.

    Readers would be like the British public, a mild centre-right plurality but with very few at all self-identifying as right-wing.
    Commenters would be about 75 centre-right or right-wing.
    I guess because betting is an individualistic activity.
    Not sure it makes so much sense to think the PB is "inherently" right-wing, either because of the betting or for any other reason. The below-the-line commentariat here used to have a pretty strong left/centre-left/liberal tendency, though things had evened themselves out by - hm, 2010ish? (Sean Fear would be one of the best people to ask on this.)

    Incidentally the recent guest posts have all been very good. I would love to see the likes of Morus (Greg Callus) or Yellow Submarine resurface again, if you're lurking out there folks. TSE and David Herdson are Tories, as is their right, and are very good at what they do, but some more above-the-line counterbalance would be welcome. Don Brind was a nice pick by OGH; I wish we saw more of Henry G Manson as his "Labour internals" pieces are obviously well-informed.
    I too miss YS's comments, and even, strangely, the tender ramblings of BenM. Has he gone too?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Mortimer Survation's final, unpublished poll, actually got the result almost spot on, 37% Tory, 31% Labour. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/ampp3d/survation-unpublished-poll-conservative-lead-5667287

    More final polls had the Tories ahead than Labour even if they failed to predict a Tory majority
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    O/T.. not sure that I approve of the iPads being used to record the English MPs votes. Why not have the tellers do this? Should be obvious which ones the SNP are due to their incessant clapping :p

    Are they still doing that? How dreadfully naff.
    To be fair, I don't think so, not after the Speaker's intervention.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL That was true until 2005, but he lost some of his base then to the LDs and Respect, other than Iraq he did not too badly on the economy etc and started some public service reforms. He also pushed through legislation expanding homosexual rights and introduced the minimum wage

    Blair actually lost a lot of his base in 2001 as shown in the huge drop in the Labour vote - though somewhat masked by the collapse in turnout to 59%. His second landslide owed everything to Tory weakness and the lack of an alternative rather than any continuing enthusiasm for him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited July 2015
    justin124 The Labour vote fell slightly by 2.5% in 2001 most of which went to Kennedy's LDs who rose 1.5%, true, however the bigger change was 2005 when the Labour vote fell by 5.5% and the LD vote rose by 3.7%
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    The diminishing power of the MSM to influence political events laid bare. Would be interesting to see the analysis of all of the parties.

    https://twitter.com/LivUniPol/status/616529252268310528
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    calum said:

    The diminishing power of the MSM to influence political events laid bare. Would be interesting to see the analysis of all of the parties.

    https://twitter.com/LivUniPol/status/616529252268310528

    Really? The SNP may have got 70% of the vote without those columns!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 The Labour vote fell slightly by 2.5% in 2001 most of which went to Kennedy's LDs who rose 1.5%, true, however the bigger change was 2005 when the Labour vote fell by 5.5% and the LD vote rose by 3.7%

    But the actual Labour vote dropped by several million - the modest fall in % share was due to the collapse in turnout. The signs of disillusionment and disappointment were already very clear.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited July 2015






    Blair well concealed the extent of his inner evil. Not for a minute did people believe they were voting for a war criminal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    justin124 The fall in turnout mean the Tory vote fell by 1.3 million in 2001 too
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    RobD said:

    calum said:

    The diminishing power of the MSM to influence political events laid bare. Would be interesting to see the analysis of all of the parties.

    https://twitter.com/LivUniPol/status/616529252268310528

    Really? The SNP may have got 70% of the vote without those columns!
    That's not newspapers changing minds. Its people choosing to read newspapers that reflect their views.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 The Labour vote fell slightly by 2.5% in 2001 most of which went to Kennedy's LDs who rose 1.5%, true, however the bigger change was 2005 when the Labour vote fell by 5.5% and the LD vote rose by 3.7%

    But the actual Labour vote dropped by several million - the modest fall in % share was due to the collapse in turnout. The signs of disillusionment and disappointment were already very clear.
    I agree with all your points, but I'd like to add another factor. We have a dig at opinion polls, but when they consistently showed big leads for Labour in 2001 I don't think that anyone was in the slightest doubt that Labour would win, and win big (which they did).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2001

    I think that many Labour voters just didn't bother to vote because they knew that Labour would win anyway.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD
    I am not suggesting that the Tories were popular in 2001 - rather that Blair had lost much of his appeal to the traditional Labour base as reflected in their failure to turnout for him.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Mortimer said:

    EPG said:

    calum said:

    It would be interesting to periodically survey PB users political leanings using one of the NOJAM tables, as opposed to party affiliations I think the following should cover most basis:

    - left wing
    - centre left
    - centrist
    - centre right
    - right wing

    I would guess it is very different.

    Readers would be like the British public, a mild centre-right plurality but with very few at all self-identifying as right-wing.
    Commenters would be about 75 centre-right or right-wing.
    I guess because betting is an individualistic activity.
    Not sure it makes so much sense to think the PB is "inherently" right-wing, either because of the betting or for any other reason. The below-the-line commentariat here used to have a pretty strong left/centre-left/liberal tendency, though things had evened themselves out by - hm, 2010ish? (Sean Fear would be one of the best people to ask on this.)

    Incidentally the recent guest posts have all been very good. I would love to see the likes of Morus (Greg Callus) or Yellow Submarine resurface again, if you're lurking out there folks. TSE and David Herdson are Tories, as is their right, and are very good at what they do, but some more above-the-line counterbalance would be welcome. Don Brind was a nice pick by OGH; I wish we saw more of Henry G Manson as his "Labour internals" pieces are obviously well-informed.
    I too miss YS's comments, and even, strangely, the tender ramblings of BenM. Has he gone too?
    I miss Ash, who would be loving the Greek situation. I only delurked after years of passive activity, because he posted something particularly daft about the Irish bailout. He'd be in his element, bless him.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Disraeli said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 The Labour vote fell slightly by 2.5% in 2001 most of which went to Kennedy's LDs who rose 1.5%, true, however the bigger change was 2005 when the Labour vote fell by 5.5% and the LD vote rose by 3.7%

    But the actual Labour vote dropped by several million - the modest fall in % share was due to the collapse in turnout. The signs of disillusionment and disappointment were already very clear.
    I agree with all your points, but I'd like to add another factor. We have a dig at opinion polls, but when they consistently showed big leads for Labour in 2001 I don't think that anyone was in the slightest doubt that Labour would win, and win big (which they did).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2001

    I think that many Labour voters just didn't bother to vote because they knew that Labour would win anyway.
    Yes - I am sure it was a factor just as it was in 1983 when the Tory landslide fell well short of the poll predictions. Same perhaps true of Labour's win back in 1966.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    justin124 Indeed but it was 2005 where the real disillusion set in post-Iraq
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited July 2015
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 Indeed but it was 2005 where the real disillusion set in post-Iraq

    I don't disagree. In my view Blair misread the mood of the electorate in 1997. People were ready - and expecting - a much sharper reversal of Thatcherism than he was offering or inclined to implement. When the reality became clear that his programme amounted to little more than 'Thatcherism with a human face' a significant section of left of centre voters gave up on him. A more radical set of policies - say similar to what John Smith might have offered - could well have antagonised some middle-England voters but would almost certainly have kept his core support loyal for much longer.By 2001 many people were not convinced that much had really changed - so they stopped voting!
This discussion has been closed.