Calum Indeed, that will be too late for EUref, this is the best news UKIP and the No/Out campaign have had since the election
The Dunlop factory in Wolves, electrification of Leeds-Sheffield rail being canned and Dave's "admission" made for grim economic/political news this evening.
An 'English Labour Party' is set to be launched next month in order to win back working-class voters, a former adviser to Ed Miliband has revealed.
Jon Cruddas said Labour 'lost everywhere to everyone' in the general election, and that senior party members had been 'mad' to think Ukip would only take votes from the Tories.
The new 'English' faction would play a 'significant' role in the party, and will be formally recognised in the same way the Scottish and Welsh divisions are, he added.
The MP for Dagenham and Rainham said that three-quarters of the supporters the party had lost since 1997 were working-class.
Mr Cruddas, who is leading an independent review into Labour's election failure, also revealed that a senior figure had warned there were a 'couple of years to save' the party.
Nick Robinson often uses Eurocrats as his sources, so it's quite possible that he is being spun a line by a German/EU side source over Cameron's supposed change in position. The wording of "may not be possible" is also very non-committal. It would be such a huge u-turn for Cameron, I don't really believe it.
Needs a bit work though, for example only shows migration from EU countries into UK, no account taken on migration from the UK to the EU. Hopefully they'll build this up over the next few months.
Any ideas what has happened to the poster known as @Neil?
Not a peep from him since May 12 and not a penny of the money owed either after his GE bets w me
Apologies if he is ill or something traumatic has happened to explain it
I sent him an email a few days ago asking how he was. No reply yet. I sent him message a few weeks prior on vanilla. No reply to that.
Before the election, He did say he was going to be busy after the election but he'd be back.
I think he's owed more a lot more money than he owes after the election from PBers.
So I am a little concerned about how he is. He's been on PB since 2005.
He emailed me on May 12 to ask for my bank details and also said that you and Mark Senior owed him so maybe one of you would pay. Failing that he said he would go to the bank and transfer the dosh that day, but as I say, nothing has arrived.
Not a kings ransom anyway, lets hope he is ok
How much does he owe you ? He and I had a small bet of £20. I can send that to you as a part payment.
£150.
It's ok, thanks for the offer but let's see if he turns up in the next month or so. I assumed it was for roughly the same amount
I won a couple of bets as well, one with Peter from Putney for £25 which I asked him to donate to the site, can you check if he did please.
Also won a football bet with JonnyJimmy(?), haven't heard from him and don't know if he is still on the site. If you are reading this, can you please also donate to the site.
As a euro area resident and watcher, the one thing that is cast-iron about the current EU leadership is that they don't want any treaty change. Observe the "Five Presidents" document released this week: they recommended as many euro area reforms as they could, up to and excluding any mention of treaty change! The fear seems to be that it would be impossible for many Western European governments to ratify any kind of European treaty whatsoever in the current political climate.
They're delaying starting production till 2017, no doubt hoping for an increase in oil prices. Although the price of oil and its impact on the Scottish economy has died down in the MSM. The Cyberunionists and SLAB keep banging on about it, other than political nerds like me, there's no one paying attention other than themselves.
Given how unstable the world is at the moment with Middle East turmoil and problems with Russia and now Venezuela, any significant reduction in supply could impact oil prices, leaving much of these guys analysis open to attack.
They're not delaying production because of oil prices.
Off-shore oil production is hard. It requires a huge investment in platforms, many wells, water injection and separation.
And this all takes time. Simply put Clair Ridge will not be ready to begin production until 2017.
There seems a reasonable chance if the EU campaign is a bitter one and like the last parliament the Tories are at their nadir at that point that the party won't be the well oiled machine it currently is and tears into itself or veers to the right. In that case, there would clearly be space for a pro-EU economically liberal party. In fact, for all Labour's troubles it may be a better bet than trying to win back voters who aren't the most reliable, actively despise your party and whose primary aim might be to kick out the Tories rather than vote for you.
This is almost certainly the best strategy for the Lib Dems to bounce back.
Another factor which is that if Cameron continues to be successful in shifting the centre-ground to the right, some of the debates which currently generate a lot of heat will lose relevance. The Lib Dems should be anticipating what the political spectrum will look like in 2020 and positioning themselves accordingly, not looking back to the past.
There seems a reasonable chance if the EU campaign is a bitter one and like the last parliament the Tories are at their nadir at that point that the party won't be the well oiled machine it currently is and tears into itself or veers to the right. In that case, there would clearly be space for a pro-EU economically liberal party. In fact, for all Labour's troubles it may be a better bet than trying to win back voters who aren't the most reliable, actively despise your party and whose primary aim might be to kick out the Tories rather than vote for you.
This is almost certainly the best strategy for the Lib Dems to bounce back.
Another factor which is that if Cameron continues to be successful in shifting the centre-ground to the right, some of the debates which currently generate a lot of heat will lose relevance. The Lib Dems should be anticipating what the political spectrum will look like in 2020 and positioning themselves accordingly, not looking back to the past.
It's not clear that he has.
£12bn welfare cuts didn't generate election debate because nobody would say who was going to lose, so opposing them just sounded like being "soft on welfare in general". More specific, with actual people losing out? Try it on and see.
"Last-ditch debt talks between Greece and its international creditors collapsed for the second time in less than 24 hours on Thursday, pushing the country towards the abyss of an unprecedented default in five days' time."
David Cameron should know better than to rely on promises from the EU.
"There is still anger that Tony Blair agreed to surrender a large portion of the British rebate in return for a promise of Common Agriculture Policy (CAP ) reform — a promise that was never kept. The Prime Minister, David Cameron , recently announced " it is absolutely extraordinary that the last Government gave away almost half of [our] rebate."
The Telegraph coverage of Greece has been woeful. There is a deal, the only question is whether SYRIZA will accept it. And if SYRIZA splits over the issue, will the deadlock be broken by a referendum, by new elections, or something else.
Oh, neither UK nor euro area but still EU. Apparently the Danish People's Party did worse overall in urban areas, both in terms of their pre- and post-election support, as well as getting smaller (positive) swings in urban areas. However, the increase in rural support was enough to leave them the largest pro-government party. And will Greenland be the next Scotland? (See https://welections.wordpress.com/2015/06/25/guest-post-denmark-2015/)
On topic, I believe more populous constituencies help incumbency as it is harder to mobilise united local community opposition versus the advantages of office in media coverage. Contrast with the seats of the early 1800s which could be swung by simply buying the tiny electorate.
We had a lot of bets on the election, some of which I won and some of which you won. Have you done a tally, or should I?
I make it IOU £58.50
You backed £20@11/10 Cons Rochester +21 £100 @EVS Cons +6.5 Thanet South +100 I backed £15@EVS LD under 10% -15 £5 @11/2 LD under 8% -27.5 that £20 I bet being the money you owed from backing UKIP in Wythenshawe... -20
An 'English Labour Party' is set to be launched next month in order to win back working-class voters, a former adviser to Ed Miliband has revealed.
Jon Cruddas said Labour 'lost everywhere to everyone' in the general election, and that senior party members had been 'mad' to think Ukip would only take votes from the Tories.
The new 'English' faction would play a 'significant' role in the party, and will be formally recognised in the same way the Scottish and Welsh divisions are, he added.
The MP for Dagenham and Rainham said that three-quarters of the supporters the party had lost since 1997 were working-class.
Mr Cruddas, who is leading an independent review into Labour's election failure, also revealed that a senior figure had warned there were a 'couple of years to save' the party.
They're delaying starting production till 2017, no doubt hoping for an increase in oil prices. Although the price of oil and its impact on the Scottish economy has died down in the MSM. The Cyberunionists and SLAB keep banging on about it, other than political nerds like me, there's no one paying attention other than themselves.
Given how unstable the world is at the moment with Middle East turmoil and problems with Russia and now Venezuela, any significant reduction in supply could impact oil prices, leaving much of these guys analysis open to attack.
They're not delaying production because of oil prices.
Off-shore oil production is hard. It requires a huge investment in platforms, many wells, water injection and separation.
And this all takes time. Simply put Clair Ridge will not be ready to begin production until 2017.
The really surprising thing about that article is the fact that there are 7 billion barrels OiP (Oil in Place) but BP are only expecting extraction of around 640 million barrels. That's a recovery rate of less than 10% which is remarkably low these days.
As a euro area resident and watcher, the one thing that is cast-iron about the current EU leadership is that they don't want any treaty change. Observe the "Five Presidents" document released this week: they recommended as many euro area reforms as they could, up to and excluding any mention of treaty change! The fear seems to be that it would be impossible for many Western European governments to ratify any kind of European treaty whatsoever in the current political climate.
Apparently, Malta came out today and said they would not support treaty change:
In such circumstances, how can we accept any promise of treaty change? What happens if they simply don't do another treaty? If we get some sort of legally binding settlement to put it into treaty form, it would need to have some time limit attached that guarantees it would be done by a certain date.
HYUFD quotes:- AF "David Cameron has accepted it may not be possible to change the EU's treaties before the UK's in/out referendum on the EU, the BBC understands.
There is nothing new or news about this. And the sooner the referendum then the less likely any treaty change would be ready. Anyone trying to talk this up is seriously desperate.
Comments
One of today's most interesting articles IMO:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4479167.ece
Jenni Russell — "Narcissism has killed the art of conversation"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11698556/EU-referendum-What-does-every-European-leader-think-about-Britains-demands.html
Needs a bit work though, for example only shows migration from EU countries into UK, no account taken on migration from the UK to the EU. Hopefully they'll build this up over the next few months.
Also won a football bet with JonnyJimmy(?), haven't heard from him and don't know if he is still on the site. If you are reading this, can you please also donate to the site.
Off-shore oil production is hard. It requires a huge investment in platforms, many wells, water injection and separation.
And this all takes time. Simply put Clair Ridge will not be ready to begin production until 2017.
Another factor which is that if Cameron continues to be successful in shifting the centre-ground to the right, some of the debates which currently generate a lot of heat will lose relevance. The Lib Dems should be anticipating what the political spectrum will look like in 2020 and positioning themselves accordingly, not looking back to the past.
£12bn welfare cuts didn't generate election debate because nobody would say who was going to lose, so opposing them just sounded like being "soft on welfare in general". More specific, with actual people losing out? Try it on and see.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11699699/Greece-talks-to-go-down-to-the-wire-amid-fears-of-imminent-banking-collapse.html
"Last-ditch debt talks between Greece and its international creditors collapsed for the second time in less than 24 hours on Thursday, pushing the country towards the abyss of an unprecedented default in five days' time."
"There is still anger that Tony Blair agreed to surrender a large portion of the British rebate in return for a promise of Common Agriculture Policy (CAP ) reform — a promise that was never kept. The Prime Minister, David Cameron , recently announced " it is absolutely extraordinary that the last Government gave away almost half of [our] rebate."
http://forbritain.org/140518_eu_rebate_blair.pdf
The Telegraph coverage of Greece has been woeful. There is a deal, the only question is whether SYRIZA will accept it. And if SYRIZA splits over the issue, will the deadlock be broken by a referendum, by new elections, or something else.
We had a lot of bets on the election, some of which I won and some of which you won. Have you done a tally, or should I?
You backed £20@11/10 Cons Rochester +21
£100 @EVS Cons +6.5 Thanet South +100
I backed £15@EVS LD under 10% -15
£5 @11/2 LD under 8% -27.5
that £20 I bet being the money you owed from backing UKIP in Wythenshawe... -20
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b54f3bba-1b12-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.html#axzz3e6QRNN1M
http://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2015-06-25/local-news/Malta-will-not-accept-any-changes-to-EU-treaty-Joseph-Muscat-tells-UK-PM-David-Cameron-6736137918
In such circumstances, how can we accept any promise of treaty change? What happens if they simply don't do another treaty? If we get some sort of legally binding settlement to put it into treaty form, it would need to have some time limit attached that guarantees it would be done by a certain date.
New Thread
AF "David Cameron has accepted it may not be possible to change the EU's treaties before the UK's in/out referendum on the EU, the BBC understands.
There is nothing new or news about this. And the sooner the referendum then the less likely any treaty change would be ready. Anyone trying to talk this up is seriously desperate.