Ivan Massow v Peter Stringfellow now on Daily Politics
I turned it off a long while ago when it had an aussie woman reminiscent of the Leader of the Greens (and just as grating) along with a deadbeat lib Dem (Brake) and a rabbitintheheadlights young Conservative. Cuts, cuts and more cuts was the line with a bit of opposition to leaving the EC. Usual BBC nonsense.
RD Osborne polls far worse than Cameron, he is less likeable and less charismatic and Chancellors do not have a great record taking over as leader, see Brown and Callaghan and while Major did win 1 election he lost the second. The next Labour leader will be better than Ed M and Osborne will also have to deal with the fallout from EUref, even if he has achieved a surplus and the economy is still growing that does not guarantee a Tory victory either, see 1997
Actually Osborne is/was outpolling Cameron for quite some time.
DecrepitJohnL Liam Fox beat Ken Clarke in the 2005 leadership ballot amongst MPs and very nearly beat David Davis to enter the run-off members ballot against Cameron
Yes, but that was then. I'm (genuinely) wondering what is his current status. He seemed to disappear after the Werrity affair; now he pops up from time to time but is anyone listening?
HYFUD..Due to recent circumstances my faith in the infallibility of polls is understandably shaken... as in they do not reflect total reality.. Osborne will wipe them
But, there is no such consensus. A left wing Eurosceptic is likely to want something very different from a right wing Eurosceptic.
You are right, but that is part of the problem. By ignoring it, and failing to do anything to build a consensus or define a coherent Brexit strategy, the Out side will allow the In side to define what leaving the EU would look like. And it's pretty clear what the In side will use as their principal argument, namely the loss of countless jobs. That will be a very effective argument - almost certainly a killer argument - even if it's a load of nonsense (I make no judgment on that point), which could only be countered by putting forward a robust programme for Brexit.
As to the rest, it's incorrect that if you don't vote Conservative, you must want Labour to win. Actually, there's no reason at all to vote Conservative, even tactically in c.500 seats. Either they're safe for Labour or SNP, or there's no chance of Labour winning them.
Unfortunately it was quite clear that UKIP's entire strategy (if that's not too strong a word) was about destroying the Conservative Party, with lots of silly fantasy about then forming a new alliance under a 'proper' Conservative leader:
In other words they wanted Miliband to become PM. That's up to them, of course - there's no God-given right for the Conservative Party to be in government - but as a means of furthering what UKIP claimed to want, it was bonkers.
He also mocked a BBC leaflet in which it said its target radio listeners were ‘Dave and Sue’ who had friends from many different ethnic backgrounds.
In his memoirs published in the Times, Mr Mosey said: ‘It must have been something of a shock to the writers of this leaflet when many real-life Daves and Sues went off and joined Ukip
Ivan Massow v Peter Stringfellow now on Daily Politics
I turned it off a long while ago when it had an aussie woman reminiscent of the Leader of the Greens (and just as grating) along with a deadbeat lib Dem (Brake) and a rabbitintheheadlights young Conservative. Cuts, cuts and more cuts was the line with a bit of opposition to leaving the EC. Usual BBC nonsense.
DecrepitJohn He still has a following on the right, it will be between him and Hammond to be the next standard bearer of the right in a future Tory leadership contest
TCPB Neil is normally good but was missing, Stringfellow and Massow are both Tories and Massow is running for the Tory Mayoral Nomination
Charles Allegedly debating, though Peter S did invite Ivan to his club later for a drink and further discussions, though I think the dancers in question may not really be his thing
TSE No, as Osborne had a net approval of 0 in the poll you linked to, ie hardly a ringing endorsement and the poll I linked to had a significantly lower favourable rating for Osborne than Cameron
We (*) make such confident predictions about the future on PB. If we were as good as we think we are the bookies would all have gone bust by now! :-)
(*) I say "we" because I not only include myself in this, but I am probably the biggest sinner of all.
You don't make the mistake of putting all your predictions together in one place where they can be easily found and laughed at. It takes a special sort of idiot to do that.
I can't think of any reason for UKIP to continue as a party now we have a referendum, with one exception: if England narrowly votes to leave the EU but a big pro-Europe vote in Scotland and Wales pushes the overall Yes vote over 50%.
[Liam Fox] still has a following on the right, it will be between him and Hammond to be the next standard bearer of the right in a future Tory leadership contest
No, I don't think that is correct. I'm not sure that Hammond is particularly seen as on the right of the party, but either way Fox is surely a busted flush after the farce of his time as Defence Secretary.
Look, instead, to Owen Paterson, who is not only positioning himself to be the standard-bearer of the right, but is also a serious and credible figure - much more so than Fox IMO.
TSE No, as Osborne had a net approval of 0 in the poll you linked to, ie hardly a ringing endorsement and the poll I linked to had a significantly lower favourable rating for Osborne than Cameron
Yeah, your poll is from 2012, when the coalition/Osborne was at his Nadir, mine was a bit more recent that.
Literally nobody is anxious to see Greece leave the euro. So it won't happen.
All that is true, but the other side of the coin is that the other main Eurozone countries, and Germany in particular, are desperate not to establish a precedent whereby a Eurozone country can run up irresponsible Euro-denominated debts and effectively rely on Germany to pick up the tab.
They are faced with two possible outcomes both of which are totally unacceptable to them.
Looking at which route will limit the loss in domestic support (i.e. votes), I'd say that picking up the tab and keeping them in the Euro is less probable than a fudge and a Germany-funded bailout. "Less probable" - I'm not daft enough to predict which way this one will actually fall with any certaintly.
DecrepitJohnL Liam Fox beat Ken Clarke in the 2005 leadership ballot amongst MPs and very nearly beat David Davis to enter the run-off members ballot against Cameron
Yes, but that was then. I'm (genuinely) wondering what is his current status. He seemed to disappear after the Werrity affair; now he pops up from time to time but is anyone listening?
Fox was a recognised right winger in charge of Defence. Despite right wing tories regularly shooting themselves in the foot its Cameron who dimwitted right wingers regularly accuse of betrayal. Sadly it has all the appearances of the right wing of the Tory party taking their political lessons from Clegg and the libdems.
[Liam Fox] still has a following on the right, it will be between him and Hammond to be the next standard bearer of the right in a future Tory leadership contest
No, I don't think that is correct. I'm not sure that Hammond is particularly seen as on the right of the party, but either way Fox is surely a busted flush after the farce of his time as Defence Secretary.
Look, instead, to Owen Paterson, who is not only positioning himself to be the standard-bearer of the right, but is also a serious and credible figure - much more so than Fox IMO.
If the EU referendum is a close run thing, it is likely that the majority of the Conservative membership will vote out. That could matter a lot for the next leadership election. Whoever is the biggest beast recommending out would be in very good stead.
"Only a few [pro-Europeans] even entertained what is increasingly obvious: that monetary union without fiscal union, properly grounded in a European demos, is wrong in its fundamentals not just its timing and details. Britain’s European movement cannot pretend that it sensed these realities at the time.
With a referendum on EU membership due in the coming years, there are tactical benefits to a mea maxima culpa. It would help voters separate the euro and the EU in their minds, freeing them to be against the first and for the second. It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves.
A measure of contrition from grandees who have spent their careers speaking de haut en bas would go a long way in a country that will, like clockwork, revert to a viciously anti-establishment mood by midterm.
For all the advantages to be eked out of an apology, the most pressing case for it is moral."
AndyJS If it is an In vote of course UKIP will continue, especially if In is over 40%, not to mention UKIP was the only party that opposed overseas aid spending increases, opposed gay marriage and wants more grammar schools
RN Fox got over 50 MPs to back him in 2005 I would not write him off, Patterson may also be a force but is too much of a maverick like Redwood, Hammond, as the Foreign Secretary, is most likely to lead the mainstream right within the Tory Party
"Only a few [pro-Europeans] even entertained what is increasingly obvious: that monetary union without fiscal union, properly grounded in a European demos, is wrong in its fundamentals not just its timing and details. Britain’s European movement cannot pretend that it sensed these realities at the time.
With a referendum on EU membership due in the coming years, there are tactical benefits to a mea maxima culpa. It would help voters separate the euro and the EU in their minds, freeing them to be against the first and for the second. It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves.
A measure of contrition from grandees who have spent their careers speaking de haut en bas would go a long way in a country that will, like clockwork, revert to a viciously anti-establishment mood by midterm.
For all the advantages to be eked out of an apology, the most pressing case for it is moral."
"It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves. "
If arrogant people were capable of recognising and admitting the mistakes they make, then they wouldn't be arrogant.
Therefore the odds of (real) apologies coming seem slim to none.
"Only a few [pro-Europeans] even entertained what is increasingly obvious: that monetary union without fiscal union, properly grounded in a European demos, is wrong in its fundamentals not just its timing and details. Britain’s European movement cannot pretend that it sensed these realities at the time.
With a referendum on EU membership due in the coming years, there are tactical benefits to a mea maxima culpa. It would help voters separate the euro and the EU in their minds, freeing them to be against the first and for the second. It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves.
A measure of contrition from grandees who have spent their careers speaking de haut en bas would go a long way in a country that will, like clockwork, revert to a viciously anti-establishment mood by midterm.
For all the advantages to be eked out of an apology, the most pressing case for it is moral."
He is becoming one of our more consistently interesting commentators. I really enjoyed his biography of Osborne as well. He writes very well.
TSE I expect even on your poll Osborne had lower favourables than Cameron, it may be in that poll Cameron had more unfavourables, but Osborne only had a zero net approval rating even on that poll anyway
Good speech by Cameron today,this is why I like the guy but lets just hope the real reason of this speech isn't just about 12bn welfare cuts and is more about changing peoples life's.
I don't know where all these "sixth month extension" rumours come from. I am on a call with a a senior Greek politician (from Potami) this afternoon, and will let everyone know what they say.
So that's why you are usually always wrong these past few months about the eurocrisis, it is your sources like those that feed you with crap and then you panic.
"Leave aside the strange idea that something as mechanical as a currency can be right in principle, which is rather like seeing inherent goodness in a particular tank formation or rate of sales tax."
One could say something similar about customs unions like the EU, yet we still hear constantly about "the sort of country we want to be". No, our membership of the EU should be based on an objective assessment of the benefits and costs. If Cameron brings back a good renegotiation, we stay. If he brings us back mutton dressed up as lamb, we leave.
"Only a few [pro-Europeans] even entertained what is increasingly obvious: that monetary union without fiscal union, properly grounded in a European demos, is wrong in its fundamentals not just its timing and details. Britain’s European movement cannot pretend that it sensed these realities at the time.
With a referendum on EU membership due in the coming years, there are tactical benefits to a mea maxima culpa. It would help voters separate the euro and the EU in their minds, freeing them to be against the first and for the second. It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves.
A measure of contrition from grandees who have spent their careers speaking de haut en bas would go a long way in a country that will, like clockwork, revert to a viciously anti-establishment mood by midterm.
For all the advantages to be eked out of an apology, the most pressing case for it is moral."
"It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves. "
If arrogant people were capable of recognising and admitting the mistakes they make, then they wouldn't be arrogant.
Therefore the odds of (real) apologies coming seem slim to none.
These people are arrogant. Therefore they wont apologise. Therefore they are arrogant. Therefore...
Hmm... As a piece of logic chopping it has certain attractions but not completely convincing.
You don't make the mistake of putting all your predictions together in one place where they can be easily found and laughed at. It takes a special sort of idiot to do that.
LOL
You have your triumphs, though. Your recent piece comparing the 1992 and 2015 Elections has been deservedly praised.
Well that was short and sweet. Eurogroup meeting over.
May I make a prediction: "Talks were constructive, we are going to meet again at X date"
I was close:
Valdis Dombrovskis @VDombrovskis 5m5 minutes ago #Greece proposals a welcome step but more work together with institutions needed. @EG to reconvene this week. We need a deal in coming days.
This isn't the time for mea culpas about the Euro. If Greece drops out and goes back to military dictatorship or joins the Russian sphere of influence then you can say the single currency was a historic mistake, but so far all we have is the pain of a misgoverned country being forced to put its house in order.
Pierre Moscovici @pierremoscovici · 2h2 hours ago Arrivée à l'#Eurogroupe : les discussions d'aujourd'hui doivent permettre de progresser pour finaliser un accord #Grèce @EU_Commission
BJB Rubbish, I could certainly see Burnham, Cooper or Kendall beating Osborne in 2020. There was an above average swing to the Tories in marginals in 2015 to stop the SNP holding the balance of power, there could easily be an above average swing back there if voters want a Labour government and prefer the Labour leader to ensure a Labour majority, or at least a deal with the LDs and that is presupposing Labour do not win back some seats from the SNP anyway which is not impossible
I make that five ifs:
- if voters want a Labour government - if they prefer the Labour leader - if they want a Labour majority (doesn't follow from the previous; see 2010) - if there are LDs to do a deal with - if they win back some seats from the SNP.
Quite the optimist.
You also forgot the 'if you believe in faeries' -- ie, ''I could certainly see Burnham, Cooper or Kendall beating Osborne in 2020''
"Only a few [pro-Europeans] even entertained what is increasingly obvious: that monetary union without fiscal union, properly grounded in a European demos, is wrong in its fundamentals not just its timing and details. Britain’s European movement cannot pretend that it sensed these realities at the time.
With a referendum on EU membership due in the coming years, there are tactical benefits to a mea maxima culpa. It would help voters separate the euro and the EU in their minds, freeing them to be against the first and for the second. It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves.
A measure of contrition from grandees who have spent their careers speaking de haut en bas would go a long way in a country that will, like clockwork, revert to a viciously anti-establishment mood by midterm.
For all the advantages to be eked out of an apology, the most pressing case for it is moral."
"It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves. "
If arrogant people were capable of recognising and admitting the mistakes they make, then they wouldn't be arrogant.
Therefore the odds of (real) apologies coming seem slim to none.
These people are arrogant. Therefore they wont apologise. Therefore they are arrogant. Therefore...
Hmm... As a piece of logic chopping it has certain attractions but not completely convincing.
They haven't retracted or reconsidered their position in the light of the stunning problems with the Euro - which failed for exactly the reasons the detractors said it would.
Such arrogance suggests that they are not going to start apologising today.
FlightpathL Well who would have thought Labour would have won a majority of 160 in 1997 in 1992? After 10 years voters are normally in the mood for change and Osborne is neither particularly charismatic or likeable, and that is crucial in today's political leaders, however good he is behind the scenes
Pierre Moscovici @pierremoscovici · 2h2 hours ago Arrivée à l'#Eurogroupe : les discussions d'aujourd'hui doivent permettre de progresser pour finaliser un accord #Grèce @EU_Commission
For those readers who are not as educated, international and sophisticated as antifrank:
Arrived at Eurogroup: today's discussions must enable progress towards a final agreement
Burnham is promising him a shadow cabinet position. Maybe in charge of policy development? (This is a joke by the way).
Does someone wash the cups after shadow cabinet meetings? I do not think we need worry too much about poor old Ed; he has already rationalised the defeat away. It was nothing to do with him.
Pierre Moscovici @pierremoscovici · 2h2 hours ago Arrivée à l'#Eurogroupe : les discussions d'aujourd'hui doivent permettre de progresser pour finaliser un accord #Grèce @EU_Commission
For those readers who are not as educated, international and sophisticated as antifrank:
Arrived at Eurogroup: today's discussions must enable progress towards a final agreement
Google translate: today's discussions should enable progress to finalize agreement
An important difference between 'must' and 'should', in English at least. Any native (or fluent) French speaker care to explain?
[apologies in advance to Charles if he falls into the above category!]
Pierre Moscovici @pierremoscovici · 2h2 hours ago Arrivée à l'#Eurogroupe : les discussions d'aujourd'hui doivent permettre de progresser pour finaliser un accord #Grèce @EU_Commission
For those readers who are not as educated, international and sophisticated as antifrank:
Arrived at Eurogroup: today's discussions must enable progress towards a final agreement
Google translate: today's discussions should enable progress to finalize agreement
An important difference between 'must' and 'should', in English at least. Any native (or fluent) French speaker care to explain?
[apologies in advance to Charles if he falls into the above category!]
The Google translation is better. 'Devoir' can mean an obligation on a person, but in this case the subject is the discussions, and in that context 'should' is a better translation.
"It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves. "
If arrogant people were capable of recognising and admitting the mistakes they make, then they wouldn't be arrogant.
Therefore the odds of (real) apologies coming seem slim to none.
These people are arrogant. Therefore they wont apologise. Therefore they are arrogant. Therefore...
Hmm... As a piece of logic chopping it has certain attractions but not completely convincing.
They haven't retracted or reconsidered their position in the light of the stunning problems with the Euro - which failed for exactly the reasons the detractors said it would.
Such arrogance suggests that they are not going to start apologising today.
I am not sure it can be said that the Euro has not been a success. It has proven itself to be far, far more resilient than its detractors predicted. Surviving the worst financial crises since the 1930s was a notable success. The fact that the Greeks are delusional and think they are entitled to other peoples' money simply because they vote for it can't really be laid at the door of the Euro or the ECB.
The euro has reduced the borrowing costs of most of its members by removing the risk of currency devaluation. There have been huge economic benefits from that even if some of these have been squandered by some of the members. It has facilitated trade within the EZ. It has created a genuine world rival to the dollar for the first time since the British Empire went pretty well bust paying for WW1. It is used as an international currency and indeed even as an equivalent local currency in a wide range of countries beyond the EZ itself.
A rather different and much more difficult question is whether it would have been good for us. I would say not. When you look at the consequences of pretty much unlimited cheap credit in Eire and apply that to the British housing market I think you would have the right to be deeply nervous. Those who think that Britain should have joined the Euro are probably wrong but it is not as if we did not manage the mother and father of credit booms without being members.
He also mocked a BBC leaflet in which it said its target radio listeners were ‘Dave and Sue’ who had friends from many different ethnic backgrounds.
In his memoirs published in the Times, Mr Mosey said: ‘It must have been something of a shock to the writers of this leaflet when many real-life Daves and Sues went off and joined Ukip
Ivan Massow v Peter Stringfellow now on Daily Politics
I turned it off a long while ago when it had an aussie woman reminiscent of the Leader of the Greens (and just as grating) along with a deadbeat lib Dem (Brake) and a rabbitintheheadlights young Conservative. Cuts, cuts and more cuts was the line with a bit of opposition to leaving the EC. Usual BBC nonsense.
Just read thanks. The current Chairman of the BBC is almost delusional in expecting the BBC to be funded out of Govt taxes. Unless he is prepared for a hair cut of 80%.
Ganesh wrote: "With a referendum on EU membership due in the coming years, there are tactical benefits to a mea maxima culpa. It would help voters separate the euro and the EU in their minds, freeing them to be against the first and for the second. It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves. "
"It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves." The real "trustiest weapon" that the Out campaign will use when talking about the Euro issue is not that the pro-Europeans were arrogant but that they were WRONG. (1)
The pro-Euro camp made use of project fear in arguing that we should join. (Inward investment dry up, Companies would quite Britain for Eurozone etc etc.)
The Out campaign will use the line "They were wrong about the Euro, and they are wrong about the EU"
(1) I include myself in the WRONG camp. I was pro-Euro when it was launched..
Pierre Moscovici @pierremoscovici · 2h2 hours ago Arrivée à l'#Eurogroupe : les discussions d'aujourd'hui doivent permettre de progresser pour finaliser un accord #Grèce @EU_Commission
For those readers who are not as educated, international and sophisticated as antifrank:
Arrived at Eurogroup: today's discussions must enable progress towards a final agreement
Google translate: today's discussions should enable progress to finalize agreement
An important difference between 'must' and 'should', in English at least. Any native (or fluent) French speaker care to explain?
[apologies in advance to Charles if he falls into the above category!]
I am not a language expert, but the verb devoir means "must / to have to", so it looks like Charles is right.
This isn't the time for mea culpas about the Euro. If Greece drops out and goes back to military dictatorship or joins the Russian sphere of influence then you can say the single currency was a historic mistake, but so far all we have is the pain of a misgoverned country being forced to put its house in order.
LOL. There are none so blind as those that will not see.
In am truly impressed to find there is still someone out there willing to even consider that the Euro has been anything other than a failure.
[Liam Fox] still has a following on the right, it will be between him and Hammond to be the next standard bearer of the right in a future Tory leadership contest
No, I don't think that is correct. I'm not sure that Hammond is particularly seen as on the right of the party, but either way Fox is surely a busted flush after the farce of his time as Defence Secretary.
Look, instead, to Owen Paterson, who is not only positioning himself to be the standard-bearer of the right, but is also a serious and credible figure - much more so than Fox IMO.
If the EU referendum is a close run thing, it is likely that the majority of the Conservative membership will vote out. That could matter a lot for the next leadership election. Whoever is the biggest beast recommending out would be in very good stead.
"Only a few [pro-Europeans] even entertained what is increasingly obvious: that monetary union without fiscal union, properly grounded in a European demos, is wrong in its fundamentals not just its timing and details. Britain’s European movement cannot pretend that it sensed these realities at the time.
With a referendum on EU membership due in the coming years, there are tactical benefits to a mea maxima culpa. It would help voters separate the euro and the EU in their minds, freeing them to be against the first and for the second. It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves.
A measure of contrition from grandees who have spent their careers speaking de haut en bas would go a long way in a country that will, like clockwork, revert to a viciously anti-establishment mood by midterm.
For all the advantages to be eked out of an apology, the most pressing case for it is moral."
"It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves. "
If arrogant people were capable of recognising and admitting the mistakes they make, then they wouldn't be arrogant.
Therefore the odds of (real) apologies coming seem slim to none.
There is plenty of arrogance on the other side too. Such is politics...
The Google translation is better. 'Devoir' can mean an obligation on a person, but in this case the subject is the discussions, and in that context 'should' is a better translation.
David Cameron today vowed to end the culture of handing people 'a few more extra pounds' in benefits as he set attacked the 'merry-go-round' of Britain's welfare state.
The Prime Minister set out his vision for an 'Opportunity Society', saying he wanted to help fulfil voters' aspirations 'whoever you are' - even those who voted against him.
He singled out tax credits for criticism, with workers taxed and then handed back benefits to top up low pay packets.
In a major speech on reforming the benefits system, Mr Cameron called for a move from a 'low wage, high tax, high welfare society to a higher wage, lower tax, lower welfare society'
FlightpathL Well who would have thought Labour would have won a majority of 160 in 1997 in 1992? After 10 years voters are normally in the mood for change and Osborne is neither particularly charismatic or likeable, and that is crucial in today's political leaders, however good he is behind the scenes
You don't understand HYUFD. The 1,000 year Tory Reich will last forever! The Tories losing GEs is now officially a thing of the past
Surely it is likely we would've been Ireland writ large. Through most of the early to mid noughties weren't UK interest rates around 5%? Had we been in the Euro their 2-3% (can't remember exactly) would've been the case, with house prices peaking at even higher rates than they did and attendant construction megaboom (see Irish ghost estates etc). I suspect we might've broken the whole system given we are approx 15 times Ireland's size, and too big to bail out.
Also I suspect we would've joined at something nearing Euro 1.5 =£1 with less than healthy outcomes for exporters. Ok at 1.5 exchange rate it's just possible we would've come over all Tuetonic and limited unit wages costs, but I doubt it. Maxing out on the credit card to deck out our expensive new house was more likely (again see Ireland).
Bottom line is I cannot see how you make it work well (as opposed to muddling along at best) without transfers of tax and benefits, redistributive central Govt spending (army bases in Wales, DSS headquarters in Newcastle etc), and ideally a properly unified labour market, which is pretty difficult on a mass level without a single lingua franca. Two out of three might work (Switzerland's not exactly a basket case), but the Euro has none out of three, and no democratic backing of the people(s) for doing anything seriously about the other two.
FlightpathL Well who would have thought Labour would have won a majority of 160 in 1997 in 1992? After 10 years voters are normally in the mood for change and Osborne is neither particularly charismatic or likeable, and that is crucial in today's political leaders, however good he is behind the scenes
You don't understand HYUFD. The 1,000 year Tory Reich will last forever! The Tories losing GEs is now officially a thing of the past
I could believe that Labour winning them is a thing of the past....
In all seriousness, I don't get this almost devout belief in Osborne as a successful Conservative leader. The traits necessary to be a successful behind-the-scenes guy, and political strategist are not necessarily the same traits in being a successful frontman, a successful leader. History has done rather well to point this out to us - no Chancellor, has really gone on to be a successful PM in our recent history. Callaghan and Brown were both disasters, and although Major won 1992, his term also became an absolute disaster.
FlightpathL Well who would have thought Labour would have won a majority of 160 in 1997 in 1992? After 10 years voters are normally in the mood for change and Osborne is neither particularly charismatic or likeable, and that is crucial in today's political leaders, however good he is behind the scenes
You don't understand HYUFD. The 1,000 year Tory Reich will last forever! The Tories losing GEs is now officially a thing of the past
I could believe that Labour winning them is a thing of the past....
Well that says a lot about Conservative hubris then. Tories staying in power 'forever'.....
Comments
cage-fighting?
chest-beating?
http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1412616487872/ICM__WEB_0710.svg
Incredible moment cat wakes up on glider wing http://dailym.ai/1K5Y0xD
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638377/Now-I-destroy-Tory-party-In-crowing-interview-Nigel-Farage-reveals-quit-politics-hes-got-UK-EU.html
In other words they wanted Miliband to become PM. That's up to them, of course - there's no God-given right for the Conservative Party to be in government - but as a means of furthering what UKIP claimed to want, it was bonkers.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/aug/27/george-osborne-liability-tories-poll-reveals
If we were as good as we think we are the bookies would all have gone bust by now! :-)
(*) I say "we" because I not only include myself in this, but I am probably the biggest sinner of all.
Charles Allegedly debating, though Peter S did invite Ivan to his club later for a drink and further discussions, though I think the dancers in question may not really be his thing
*If you ignore all the ones that were wrong.
Look, instead, to Owen Paterson, who is not only positioning himself to be the standard-bearer of the right, but is also a serious and credible figure - much more so than Fox IMO.
Sadly it has all the appearances of the right wing of the Tory party taking their political lessons from Clegg and the libdems.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ccc05ef8-18c1-11e5-8201-cbdb03d71480.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3dnH43w1K
"Only a few [pro-Europeans] even entertained what is increasingly obvious: that monetary union without fiscal union, properly grounded in a European demos, is wrong in its fundamentals not just its timing and details. Britain’s European movement cannot pretend that it sensed these realities at the time.
With a referendum on EU membership due in the coming years, there are tactical benefits to a mea maxima culpa. It would help voters separate the euro and the EU in their minds, freeing them to be against the first and for the second. It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves.
A measure of contrition from grandees who have spent their careers speaking de haut en bas would go a long way in a country that will, like clockwork, revert to a viciously anti-establishment mood by midterm.
For all the advantages to be eked out of an apology, the most pressing case for it is moral."
http://uk.businessinsider.com/survation-unpublished-poll-general-election-result-2015-5
"It would also disarm the Out campaign of its trustiest weapon, which is the perceived arrogance of pro-Europeans themselves. "
If arrogant people were capable of recognising and admitting the mistakes they make, then they wouldn't be arrogant.
Therefore the odds of (real) apologies coming seem slim to none.
"Talks were constructive, we are going to meet again at X date"
"Leave aside the strange idea that something as mechanical as a currency can be right in principle, which is rather like seeing inherent goodness in a particular tank formation or rate of sales tax."
One could say something similar about customs unions like the EU, yet we still hear constantly about "the sort of country we want to be". No, our membership of the EU should be based on an objective assessment of the benefits and costs. If Cameron brings back a good renegotiation, we stay. If he brings us back mutton dressed up as lamb, we leave.
Hmm... As a piece of logic chopping it has certain attractions but not completely convincing.
You have your triumphs, though. Your recent piece comparing the 1992 and 2015 Elections has been deservedly praised.
Valdis Dombrovskis @VDombrovskis 5m5 minutes ago
#Greece proposals a welcome step but more work together with institutions needed. @EG to reconvene this week. We need a deal in coming days.
Arrivée à l'#Eurogroupe : les discussions d'aujourd'hui doivent permettre de progresser pour finaliser un accord #Grèce @EU_Commission
They haven't retracted or reconsidered their position in the light of the stunning problems with the Euro - which failed for exactly the reasons the detractors said it would.
Such arrogance suggests that they are not going to start apologising today.
Arrived at Eurogroup: today's discussions must enable progress towards a final agreement
An important difference between 'must' and 'should', in English at least. Any native (or fluent) French speaker care to explain?
[apologies in advance to Charles if he falls into the above category!]
Edit: Meaning 8 here:
https://fr.wiktionary.org/wiki/devoir
The euro has reduced the borrowing costs of most of its members by removing the risk of currency devaluation. There have been huge economic benefits from that even if some of these have been squandered by some of the members. It has facilitated trade within the EZ. It has created a genuine world rival to the dollar for the first time since the British Empire went pretty well bust paying for WW1. It is used as an international currency and indeed even as an equivalent local currency in a wide range of countries beyond the EZ itself.
A rather different and much more difficult question is whether it would have been good for us. I would say not. When you look at the consequences of pretty much unlimited cheap credit in Eire and apply that to the British housing market I think you would have the right to be deeply nervous. Those who think that Britain should have joined the Euro are probably wrong but it is not as if we did not manage the mother and father of credit booms without being members.
Just read thanks.
The current Chairman of the BBC is almost delusional in expecting the BBC to be funded out of Govt taxes. Unless he is prepared for a hair cut of 80%.
The real "trustiest weapon" that the Out campaign will use when talking about the Euro issue is not that the pro-Europeans were arrogant but that they were WRONG. (1)
The pro-Euro camp made use of project fear in arguing that we should join. (Inward investment dry up, Companies would quite Britain for Eurozone etc etc.)
The Out campaign will use the line "They were wrong about the Euro, and they are wrong about the EU"
(1) I include myself in the WRONG camp. I was pro-Euro when it was launched..
Very short Eurogroup press conference since no progress made. IMF's Christine Lagarde didn't even turn up.
I am not a language expert, but the verb devoir means "must / to have to", so it looks like Charles is right.
In am truly impressed to find there is still someone out there willing to even consider that the Euro has been anything other than a failure.
There is no such thing as "failure" any more - there are only varying degrees of success.
New Thread
Can one have a negative value of success?
The Prime Minister set out his vision for an 'Opportunity Society', saying he wanted to help fulfil voters' aspirations 'whoever you are' - even those who voted against him.
He singled out tax credits for criticism, with workers taxed and then handed back benefits to top up low pay packets.
In a major speech on reforming the benefits system, Mr Cameron called for a move from a 'low wage, high tax, high welfare society to a higher wage, lower tax, lower welfare society'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3133823/David-Cameron-vows-stop-benefits-merry-round-consigned-thousands-scrapheap.html
@DavidL
Surely it is likely we would've been Ireland writ large. Through most of the early to mid noughties weren't UK interest rates around 5%? Had we been in the Euro their 2-3% (can't remember exactly) would've been the case, with house prices peaking at even higher rates than they did and attendant construction megaboom (see Irish ghost estates etc). I suspect we might've broken the whole system given we are approx 15 times Ireland's size, and too big to bail out.
Also I suspect we would've joined at something nearing Euro 1.5 =£1 with less than healthy outcomes for exporters. Ok at 1.5 exchange rate it's just possible we would've come over all Tuetonic and limited unit wages costs, but I doubt it. Maxing out on the credit card to deck out our expensive new house was more likely (again see Ireland).
Bottom line is I cannot see how you make it work well (as opposed to muddling along at best) without transfers of tax and benefits, redistributive central Govt spending (army bases in Wales, DSS headquarters in Newcastle etc), and ideally a properly unified labour market, which is pretty difficult on a mass level without a single lingua franca. Two out of three might work (Switzerland's not exactly a basket case), but the Euro has none out of three, and no democratic backing of the people(s) for doing anything seriously about the other two.
"il faut" or "on faut" is definitely must, no wriggle room.
MM Same was said of Labour in 1992, the Tories in 2001