Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GrEUxit?

2

Comments

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Plato said:

    Saw that earlier - very impressive. Went to a 1066 enactment down here nr Battle and it wasn't so spectacular, but great fun.

    IIRC there were 115k troops at Waterloo.

    Moses_ said:

    Just saw on Sky news part of the reenactment of the Battle of Waterloo. They had 5000 participants a lot less than the actual battle of course but absolutely stunning and really really shows how confusing such a battlefield could be. The amount of smoke generated that obscured large areas would have led to additional confusion as to what was happening on many parts of the battlefield.

    A comment from a WW1 veteran came to mind where he pointed out that a battlefield could have action in one area and the rest were waiting for something to happen. You can actually see this in this reenactment.

    Well done to them all.

    I noticed during the reenactment they all had bayonets on their rifles (muskets?) as well. I should imagine in that melee even though not an actual battle it could get quite dangerous.

    23,000 British troops with 44,000 allied troops and 160 guns against 74,000 French troops and 250 guns.

    http://www.britishbattles.com/waterloo/waterloo-june-1815.htm
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited June 2015
    After the initial shock and crisis of leaving, I think Greece will probably thrive outside the Euro...

    One things for sure - Thank goodness we didn't listen to the following morons:

    Tony Blair, Kenneth Clarke, Michael Hesaltine, Charles Kennedy, Nick Clegg, Alex Slamond, the Financial Times, CBI, Etc... Etc... Etc...

    And join the Euro.

    These people have been wrong about pretty much everything... And it should be noted that they will be the same people urging us to STAY rather than GO (the late Charles Kennedy excepted)!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Moses_ said:

    Sky news...

    Head of Oxfam just demanded open boarders so we can take many more refugees and states it's our humanitarian duty.

    Auto spell.... I meant "borders" but the original spelling probably was not far from the truth either.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited June 2015

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    Two explanations:

    1. The British people have lost their minds.

    2. The same pollsters who have been embarrassingly hopeless and useless for the past five years are getting it catastrophically wrong once again.

    I know which one I think is most likely...
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Practice about to get under way. And Button has a 25 place grid penalty. The grid is 20 cars.

    Starts in the public car park then?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. Moses, I think he starts last, then gets a stop-and-go penalty (I think the bands are something like 5s, 10s and 25s, or thereabouts).
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    David H - thank you. Just a couple of points:

    You say,"Greece is a semi-sovereign country". Please could you explain exactly what you mean by that definition - is it due to its membership of the EU plus the EZ?

    Also, it is quite apparent that Greece does not want to reform its public sector. So how far will it go in threatening say to allow Russia to stable its Med fleet at Piraeus or even sell off say Rhodes to China - which is busy acquiring assets in Europe.?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    After the initial shock and crisis of leaving, I think Greece will probably thrive outside the Euro...

    One things for sure - Thank goodness we didn't listen to the following morons:

    Tony Blair, Kenneth Clarke, Michael Hesaltine, Charles Kennedy, Nick Clegg, Alex Slamond, the Financial Times, CBI, Etc... Etc... Etc...

    And join the Euro.

    These people have been wrong about pretty much everything... And it should be noted that they will be the same people urging us to STAY rather than GO!

    I would have thought there would be massive civil strife and economic collapse if Greece could not pay its bills. Greece imports a lot of food. It would double in price. For a country with tourism as a major earner it would be a tailspin.

    Syrizia has told the Greeks that they can have the Euro without Austerity. That lie will be exposed.

    And as the header points out: unless Greece reforms internally it will turn into Argentina rather than a tiger economy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,169
    Moses_ said:

    Sky news...

    Head of Oxfam just demanded open boarders

    B&B or all inclusive?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,663
    @Sean_Fear,

    I'd take the PPP numbers with a pinch of salt too, largely because of the concept of Owners Equivalent Rent, which essentially says that if house prices are rising, then what you can buy with your Euro has declined. So, countries which saw housing booms - such as Spain - are artificially depressed.

    If you look at Spain: from 1999 to 2007, employment rose from 15 million to 21 million (http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=119.ESA.Q.ES.Y.1000.TOTEMP.0000.TTTT.N.P.A) - a staggering 35% increase in the number of people employed. For PPP GDP per head to have declined, you would have to have every employed person being approximately a third worse off in 2007 than they were in 1999 - something that is flatly contradicted by household income data.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Wet in Austria. Probably no accurate qualifying simulations. May mean some mis-pricing, with any luck.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,663
    GIN1138 said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    Two explanations:

    1. The British people have lost their minds.

    2. The same pollsters who have been embarrassingly hopeless and useless for the past five years are getting it catastrophically wrong once again.

    I know which one I think is most likely...
    75% of people never think about the EU.

    But they do see Nigel Farage on the TV all the time. And if they don't like Nigel Farage(1), they will tend - in the absence of all other evidence - to like what Nigel Farage dislikes.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Mr. Moses, I think he starts last, then gets a stop-and-go penalty (I think the bands are something like 5s, 10s and 25s, or thereabouts).


    Ha!
    Thanks. Just broke the news to Mrs Moses and she is a bit upset as she is quite a fan of Jenson. She was also born in the same town Frome , Somerset.

    Did you know just on the outskirts of Frome is a pub called "The Frome Flyer" named after JB

    The Frome Flyer, Commerce Park Jenson Ave, Frome, Somerset BA11 2LD
    http://www.bookatable.co.uk/table-table-frome-flyer-frome-somerset
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Indeed, Mr. 1000.

    When Cameron gets his deal, there'll be concrete proposals for the Out side to attack. That may change things.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,663
    Charles said:

    (As an aside, I was told last night by a very plugged in friend of mine in Paris that part of the issue is that Tspiras is being advised by a specific Lazard banker who delights in chaos for its own sake and therefore might be encouraging him to take a hard line for very odd reasons!)

    I think Tsipiras knows that he cannot get anything past his own party unless he is seen to have fought to the very end.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    I did not know that, Mr. Moses.

    At least McLaren's got new updates, and will have more for Silverstone.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Financier said:

    David H - thank you. Just a couple of points:

    You say,"Greece is a semi-sovereign country". Please could you explain exactly what you mean by that definition - is it due to its membership of the EU plus the EZ?

    Also, it is quite apparent that Greece does not want to reform its public sector. So how far will it go in threatening say to allow Russia to stable its Med fleet at Piraeus or even sell off say Rhodes to China - which is busy acquiring assets in Europe.?

    ou say,"Greece is a semi-sovereign country". Please could you explain exactly what you mean by that definition - is it due to its membership of the EU plus the EZ?

    According to the EU president the UK belongs to the EU so Greece probably does as well hence a semi sovereign country

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    Two explanations:

    1. The British people have lost their minds.

    2. The same pollsters who have been embarrassingly hopeless and useless for the past five years are getting it catastrophically wrong once again.

    I know which one I think is most likely...
    75% of people never think about the EU.

    But they do see Nigel Farage on the TV all the time. And if they don't like Nigel Farage(1), they will tend - in the absence of all other evidence - to like what Nigel Farage dislikes.
    Immigration is as unpopular as ever and Farage is more closely connected with that, the EU is as you say not thought about. The In vote is low information status quo supporting.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    (As an aside, I was told last night by a very plugged in friend of mine in Paris that part of the issue is that Tspiras is being advised by a specific Lazard banker who delights in chaos for its own sake and therefore might be encouraging him to take a hard line for very odd reasons!)

    I think Tsipiras knows that he cannot get anything past his own party unless he is seen to have fought to the very end.
    The last 11 words of that post may be superfluous.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    I assume Greece has a large tourist industry. Isn't that being adversely affected by the uncertainty? I know of one family who have already dropped plans to visit this year.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Sky news...

    Head of Oxfam just demanded open boarders

    B&B or all inclusive?

    Touche' and quite!

    already corrected see previous post to yours :-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,663
    I have a Canadian friend at the IMF in Washington. She email me to ask if Ambrose Evans-Pritchard smokes crack. Apparently, they find his Telegraph columns incredibly amusing.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    The UK public's perception of how much we spend on the EU is interesting:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/09/public-attitudes-tax-distribution/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,663
    FalseFlag said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    Two explanations:

    1. The British people have lost their minds.

    2. The same pollsters who have been embarrassingly hopeless and useless for the past five years are getting it catastrophically wrong once again.

    I know which one I think is most likely...
    75% of people never think about the EU.

    But they do see Nigel Farage on the TV all the time. And if they don't like Nigel Farage(1), they will tend - in the absence of all other evidence - to like what Nigel Farage dislikes.
    Immigration is as unpopular as ever and Farage is more closely connected with that, the EU is as you say not thought about. The In vote is low information status quo supporting.
    In that Farage has brought an immigrant in through marriage? I don't think most of the public knows about that.

    I do agree the percentages now are low information. Hopefully we'll have a proper debate. But I'm not optimistic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited June 2015
    Moses_ said:

    Mr. Moses, I think he starts last, then gets a stop-and-go penalty (I think the bands are something like 5s, 10s and 25s, or thereabouts).


    Ha!
    Thanks. Just broke the news to Mrs Moses and she is a bit upset as she is quite a fan of Jenson. She was also born in the same town Frome , Somerset.

    Did you know just on the outskirts of Frome is a pub called "The Frome Flyer" named after JB

    The Frome Flyer, Commerce Park Jenson Ave, Frome, Somerset BA11 2LD
    http://www.bookatable.co.uk/table-table-frome-flyer-frome-somerset
    I was there a few months ago as I live about 5 miles away, and I was surprised there wasn't Jenson stuff all over the place, as far as I could see - no, it's just an ordinary pub that happens to be named that way.

    I will say it was annoying for like the first 5 years of Jenson's career when the commentators insisted on saying he came from Frome in Somerset (with Frome rhyming with Home, not Room)

    A pleasant afternoon to all.
  • linkriderlinkrider Posts: 13
    OT. Just scanned through the comments on the last piece (Local By-Election Results : June 18th 2015 ). Would it be a record that there didn't seem to be one comment referring to that piece, all were on other issues?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited June 2015
    CD13 said:


    I assume Greece has a large tourist industry. Isn't that being adversely affected by the uncertainty? I know of one family who have already dropped plans to visit this year.

    My daughter goes to Corfu for a week departing tomorrow. It's go or lose the money... What to do?

    Great timing but I am hoping that the islands will be unaffected (initially anyway) but it is a worry.

    she has euros to avoid having to go to a bank but all the same a concern.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. Rider, welcome to pb.com.

    Might be. I wasn't on at the time, but do usually thank Mr. Hayfield for his ongoing contributions.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    linkrider said:

    OT. Just scanned through the comments on the last piece (Local By-Election Results : June 18th 2015 ). Would it be a record that there didn't seem to be one comment referring to that piece, all were on other issues?

    There were most definitely a few! At the very start, granted, but in fairness that was because the results were known the night before. It's more a nice follow up to the pre result post than a topic of conversation I say.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited June 2015
    Normal Lamon (who along with John Major - And a certain Mr D. Cameron - Bankrupted thousands of home owners in one day and destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years - All on the alter of the ERM) doesn't think much to the current shambles...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11686679/The-euro-was-doomed-from-the-start.html
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Moses_ said:

    CD13 said:


    I assume Greece has a large tourist industry. Isn't that being adversely affected by the uncertainty? I know of one family who have already dropped plans to visit this year.

    My daughter goes to Corfu for a week departing tomorrow. It's go or lose the money... What to do?

    Great timing but I am hoping that the islands will be unaffected (initially anyway) but it is a worry.

    she has euros to avoid having to go to a bank but all the same a concern.
    If they get kicked out of the Euro then it will be a great place to go next year.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Cherie Blair's bid to match her husband's riches met with disaster yesterday when her chain of healthcare shops went bust.

    Eleven stores have closed with the loss of dozens of jobs.

    Staff told bosses to 'rot in hell' during a heated conference call announcing the business was going into liquidation.

    It is a massive setback for Mrs Blair, who launched Mee Healthcare with her American business partner Gail Lese in 2011 to exploit reforms opening up the NHS to private competition.

    Mrs Blair, 60, a lifelong socialist, has always rejected claims that she was cashing in on NHS privatisation – even though Mee Healthcare was funded via an investment company in the tax haven of the Cayman Islands.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3132166/Cherie-Blair-s-chain-health-shops-funded-Cayman-Islands-goes-bust-sacks-dozens-staff-mass-conference-call.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    (As an aside, I was told last night by a very plugged in friend of mine in Paris that part of the issue is that Tspiras is being advised by a specific Lazard banker who delights in chaos for its own sake and therefore might be encouraging him to take a hard line for very odd reasons!)

    I think Tsipiras knows that he cannot get anything past his own party unless he is seen to have fought to the very end.
    Did you see that the former CEO of PAI (retired beginning of this year) has just been made Prime Minister of Benin?

    What could possibly go wrong...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    GIN1138 said:

    Normal Lamon (who along with John Major - And a certain Mr D. Cameron - Bankrupted thousands of home owners in one day and destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years - All on the alter of the ERM) doesn't think much to the current shambles...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11686679/The-euro-was-doomed-from-the-start.html

    I would dispute that. Lamont inherited the disaster that had been started by Major when as chancellor he persuaded Thatcher to join the ERM. Lamont was the one left holding the bomb when it went off and had the added problem of having the architect of the whole mess as his boss.

    Major is a classic case of reaping what he sowed and does not deserve the Elder Statesman profile he enjoys today. It was he rather than Lamont who "destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years" .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited June 2015
    Financier said:

    Cherie Blair's bid to match her husband's riches met with disaster yesterday when her chain of healthcare shops went bust.

    Eleven stores have closed with the loss of dozens of jobs.

    Staff told bosses to 'rot in hell' during a heated conference call announcing the business was going into liquidation.

    It is a massive setback for Mrs Blair, who launched Mee Healthcare with her American business partner Gail Lese in 2011 to exploit reforms opening up the NHS to private competition.

    Mrs Blair, 60, a lifelong socialist, has always rejected claims that she was cashing in on NHS privatisation – even though Mee Healthcare was funded via an investment company in the tax haven of the Cayman Islands.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3132166/Cherie-Blair-s-chain-health-shops-funded-Cayman-Islands-goes-bust-sacks-dozens-staff-mass-conference-call.html

    A tragedy for those facing the sack but.... LOL @ Blair.inc :smiley:

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    GIN1138 said:

    Normal Lamon (who along with John Major - And a certain Mr D. Cameron - Bankrupted thousands of home owners in one day and destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years - All on the alter of the ERM) doesn't think much to the current shambles...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11686679/The-euro-was-doomed-from-the-start.html

    That poll looks interesting.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited June 2015

    GIN1138 said:

    Normal Lamon (who along with John Major - And a certain Mr D. Cameron - Bankrupted thousands of home owners in one day and destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years - All on the alter of the ERM) doesn't think much to the current shambles...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11686679/The-euro-was-doomed-from-the-start.html

    I would dispute that. Lamont inherited the disaster that had been started by Major when as chancellor he persuaded Thatcher to join the ERM. Lamont was the one left holding the bomb when it went off and had the added problem of having the architect of the whole mess as his boss.

    Major is a classic case of reaping what he sowed and does not deserve the Elder Statesman profile he enjoys today. It was he rather than Lamont who "destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years" .
    I have always had sympathy for Lamont's position, but in the end he was the one shoving up interest rate's on a seemingly hourly basis, when it was obvious to everyone that we should just get the %^&* out of the thing...
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: EXCL David Blunkett and Alistair Darling to get peerages - but not Jack Straw. http://t.co/jjGsR4cMQZ

    That Alistair Darling decision will greatly help the future of the Union....
    The latest final nail in the Union's coffin, I suppose? :D
    The coffin was nailed shut early on the 19th September.

    The rest is just a question of timing.
    You mean how fast does the oil run out and 20% of Scotland's economy disappear presumably ?
    Two words. Clair Ridge.


    titter.......
    Ah! Why the Northern Isles will demand independence from Scotland.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Normal Lamon (who along with John Major - And a certain Mr D. Cameron - Bankrupted thousands of home owners in one day and destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years - All on the alter of the ERM) doesn't think much to the current shambles...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11686679/The-euro-was-doomed-from-the-start.html

    I would dispute that. Lamont inherited the disaster that had been started by Major when as chancellor he persuaded Thatcher to join the ERM. Lamont was the one left holding the bomb when it went off and had the added problem of having the architect of the whole mess as his boss.

    Major is a classic case of reaping what he sowed and does not deserve the Elder Statesman profile he enjoys today. It was he rather than Lamont who "destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years" .
    I have always had sympathy for Lamont's position, but in the end he was the one shoving up interest rate's on a seemingly hourly basis, when it was obvious to everyone that we should just get the %^&* out of the thing...
    And yet it was the getting the %^&* out (which was obviously the right thing to do I hasten to add) that resulted in the consequent complete loss of economic reputation for the Tories. Lamont was screwed whatever he did from the moment he accepted the position of Chancellor under a PM who had made such a catastrophic decision from that post a few years earlier.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Moses_ said:

    CD13 said:


    I assume Greece has a large tourist industry. Isn't that being adversely affected by the uncertainty? I know of one family who have already dropped plans to visit this year.

    My daughter goes to Corfu for a week departing tomorrow. It's go or lose the money... What to do?

    Great timing but I am hoping that the islands will be unaffected (initially anyway) but it is a worry.

    she has euros to avoid having to go to a bank but all the same a concern.
    I was in Corfu during a previous phase of the Greek crisis. Wouldn't have known it was a problem. The trouble will be in the cities.

    Mind you everyone wanted paying in cash! But that may have been tax dodging rather than a fear of default.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,309

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,663

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Normal Lamon (who along with John Major - And a certain Mr D. Cameron - Bankrupted thousands of home owners in one day and destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years - All on the alter of the ERM) doesn't think much to the current shambles...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11686679/The-euro-was-doomed-from-the-start.html

    I would dispute that. Lamont inherited the disaster that had been started by Major when as chancellor he persuaded Thatcher to join the ERM. Lamont was the one left holding the bomb when it went off and had the added problem of having the architect of the whole mess as his boss.

    Major is a classic case of reaping what he sowed and does not deserve the Elder Statesman profile he enjoys today. It was he rather than Lamont who "destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years" .
    I have always had sympathy for Lamont's position, but in the end he was the one shoving up interest rate's on a seemingly hourly basis, when it was obvious to everyone that we should just get the %^&* out of the thing...
    And yet it was the getting the %^&* out (which was obviously the right thing to do I hasten to add) that resulted in the consequent complete loss of economic reputation for the Tories. Lamont was screwed whatever he did from the moment he accepted the position of Chancellor under a PM who had made such a catastrophic decision from that post a few years earlier.
    I think it's a bit more complicated than that. I think a great deal of the "incompetence" narrative comes from the massive profits reaped from Soros and others. The Tories - rightly or wrongly - were seen to have given 10s of billions of pounds to hedge fund managers. Had Lamont been better advised, he would have recognised that the UK government and the Bank of England could not have "bucked the market".

    Like with Greece, it would have been better for the UK not to have joined the EMU in the first place (although it was probably less bad than the shadow DM peg that Nigel Lawson instituted). However, the moment it was recognised that the peg was doomed, it should have been abandoned.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. Financier, just from the headline, it sounds pathetic.

    The Fallout games are a massive videogame series, but I was unimpressed when the firm involved had lawyers force a small indie game to change its name from something like Fallout Apocalypse (it was completely different, and nobody could've confused the series with the smaller game).

    Sometimes similar naming is a serious issue (if I adopted the pen name JRR Tolkien, I dare say a lawyer might say hello) but sometimes organisations just throw their weight around.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    Watching the last match of this magnificent series I was reflecting that it is only a few months since England thought that Cook, Trott and Bell were essential to have a solid start and build a proper base in an ODI.

    Now 60 in the first 10 is really a minimum and as we saw in the last match 350 is not even par. This game is evolving as we watch and NZ (and Australia of course) are leading the way. It is marvellous entertainment.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    rcs1000 said:

    @Sean_Fear,

    I'd take the PPP numbers with a pinch of salt too, largely because of the concept of Owners Equivalent Rent, which essentially says that if house prices are rising, then what you can buy with your Euro has declined. So, countries which saw housing booms - such as Spain - are artificially depressed.

    If you look at Spain: from 1999 to 2007, employment rose from 15 million to 21 million (http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=119.ESA.Q.ES.Y.1000.TOTEMP.0000.TTTT.N.P.A) - a staggering 35% increase in the number of people employed. For PPP GDP per head to have declined, you would have to have every employed person being approximately a third worse off in 2007 than they were in 1999 - something that is flatly contradicted by household income data.

    The numbers show Spanish GDP per capita growing smartly up to 2007. I don't think the overall message from those tables of low economic growth, in the UK, Western Europe, and Southern Europe, since 2000, is incorrect.

    How do you think national income per head is best measured?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
    You think he's had a good month in the media?
  • Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: EXCL David Blunkett and Alistair Darling to get peerages - but not Jack Straw. http://t.co/jjGsR4cMQZ

    Any guesses what titles they'll take? Baron Blunkett of Brightside, perhaps?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Mr. Financier, just from the headline, it sounds pathetic.

    The Fallout games are a massive videogame series, but I was unimpressed when the firm involved had lawyers force a small indie game to change its name from something like Fallout Apocalypse (it was completely different, and nobody could've confused the series with the smaller game).

    Sometimes similar naming is a serious issue (if I adopted the pen name JRR Tolkien, I dare say a lawyer might say hello) but sometimes organisations just throw their weight around.


    I think the problem with Trademark is that it has to be defended; if you don't then you can lose it.

    Therefore they sometimes go over the top on minor issues.

    Of course, some people go over the top just because they can.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,663
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Sean_Fear,

    I'd take the PPP numbers with a pinch of salt too, largely because of the concept of Owners Equivalent Rent, which essentially says that if house prices are rising, then what you can buy with your Euro has declined. So, countries which saw housing booms - such as Spain - are artificially depressed.

    If you look at Spain: from 1999 to 2007, employment rose from 15 million to 21 million (http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=119.ESA.Q.ES.Y.1000.TOTEMP.0000.TTTT.N.P.A) - a staggering 35% increase in the number of people employed. For PPP GDP per head to have declined, you would have to have every employed person being approximately a third worse off in 2007 than they were in 1999 - something that is flatly contradicted by household income data.

    The numbers show Spanish GDP per capita growing smartly up to 2007. I don't think the overall message from those tables of low economic growth, in the UK, Western Europe, and Southern Europe, since 2000, is incorrect.

    How do you think national income per head is best measured?
    Oh, you're absolutely right. I am just very cautious about using any metric in isolation. GDP growth fuelled by massive increases in debt or by a big current account deficit is very worrying.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Normal Lamon (who along with John Major - And a certain Mr D. Cameron - Bankrupted thousands of home owners in one day and destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years - All on the alter of the ERM) doesn't think much to the current shambles...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11686679/The-euro-was-doomed-from-the-start.html

    I would dispute that. Lamont inherited the disaster that had been started by Major when as chancellor he persuaded Thatcher to join the ERM. Lamont was the one left holding the bomb when it went off and had the added problem of having the architect of the whole mess as his boss.

    Major is a classic case of reaping what he sowed and does not deserve the Elder Statesman profile he enjoys today. It was he rather than Lamont who "destroyed the Tory Party as an election winning force for 20 years" .
    I have always had sympathy for Lamont's position, but in the end he was the one shoving up interest rate's on a seemingly hourly basis, when it was obvious to everyone that we should just get the %^&* out of the thing...
    And yet it was the getting the %^&* out (which was obviously the right thing to do I hasten to add) that resulted in the consequent complete loss of economic reputation for the Tories. Lamont was screwed whatever he did from the moment he accepted the position of Chancellor under a PM who had made such a catastrophic decision from that post a few years earlier.
    I think it's a bit more complicated than that. I think a great deal of the "incompetence" narrative comes from the massive profits reaped from Soros and others. The Tories - rightly or wrongly - were seen to have given 10s of billions of pounds to hedge fund managers. Had Lamont been better advised, he would have recognised that the UK government and the Bank of England could not have "bucked the market".

    Like with Greece, it would have been better for the UK not to have joined the EMU in the first place (although it was probably less bad than the shadow DM peg that Nigel Lawson instituted). However, the moment it was recognised that the peg was doomed, it should have been abandoned.
    As you say we should never have joined the ERM in the first place.Of course I have a similar view of the EU as a whole. I expect to be proved equally correct on that point in time as well.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
    You think he's had a good month in the media?
    He hasn't had a good time since he went way OTT during the debates with his appalling attack on HIV sufferers.

    I don't see how that has made leaving the EU 'worse and worse' though.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
    You think he's had a good month in the media?
    He hasn't had a good time since he went way OTT during the debates with his appalling attack on HIV sufferers.

    I don't see how that has made leaving the EU 'worse and worse' though.
    You aren't considering it from the position of how to best signal your virtue. Rubbishing Farage and Euroscepticism in the same sentence, what is not to like...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
    You think he's had a good month in the media?
    He hasn't had a good time since he went way OTT during the debates with his appalling attack on HIV sufferers.

    I don't see how that has made leaving the EU 'worse and worse' though.
    Nigel Farage is the personification of leaving the EU. The public react accordingly.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
    You think he's had a good month in the media?
    He hasn't had a good time since he went way OTT during the debates with his appalling attack on HIV sufferers.

    I don't see how that has made leaving the EU 'worse and worse' though.
    Nigel Farage is the personification of leaving the EU. The public react accordingly.
    UKIP did poorly in the Byelections on Thursday and were below the LDs for the first time in ages in the Evening Standard poll last week.

    UKIP and Farage are a tarnished brand.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Indigo said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
    You think he's had a good month in the media?
    He hasn't had a good time since he went way OTT during the debates with his appalling attack on HIV sufferers.

    I don't see how that has made leaving the EU 'worse and worse' though.
    You aren't considering it from the position of how to best signal your virtue. Rubbishing Farage and Euroscepticism in the same sentence, what is not to like...
    That depends on whether you consider the whole 'Out' campaign will focus around Farage, which I pray it does not. There are many other far less divisive characters that will be campaigning for out.

    I'm not one for following polls like the sheep on here, but for those that do that Ipses Mori poll linked below looks interesting.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    DavidL said:

    Watching the last match of this magnificent series I was reflecting that it is only a few months since England thought that Cook, Trott and Bell were essential to have a solid start and build a proper base in an ODI.

    Now 60 in the first 10 is really a minimum and as we saw in the last match 350 is not even par. This game is evolving as we watch and NZ (and Australia of course) are leading the way. It is marvellous entertainment.

    The impact of T20 was always going to have this sort of effect (and it appears to be happening in Tests as well). With the generational change, the players schooled in T20 will make a clear difference to how the game is played in all formats.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Dair said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching the last match of this magnificent series I was reflecting that it is only a few months since England thought that Cook, Trott and Bell were essential to have a solid start and build a proper base in an ODI.

    Now 60 in the first 10 is really a minimum and as we saw in the last match 350 is not even par. This game is evolving as we watch and NZ (and Australia of course) are leading the way. It is marvellous entertainment.

    The impact of T20 was always going to have this sort of effect (and it appears to be happening in Tests as well). With the generational change, the players schooled in T20 will make a clear difference to how the game is played in all formats.
    It's been a brilliant ODI series, I have done well backing multi-sixes and multi-wides, just on the multi-sixes today but it has not started well, only one so far.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.

    "Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades"

    True. But Europe <> The EU.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
    You think he's had a good month in the media?
    He hasn't had a good time since he went way OTT during the debates with his appalling attack on HIV sufferers.

    I don't see how that has made leaving the EU 'worse and worse' though.
    Nigel Farage is the personification of leaving the EU. The public react accordingly.
    UKIP did poorly in the Byelections on Thursday and were below the LDs for the first time in ages in the Evening Standard poll last week.

    UKIP and Farage are a tarnished brand.
    I agree, and Farage in particular.

    But the likes of Kate Hoey will be campaigning for out, if you think it's all down to Farage you may be surprised.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    Dair said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching the last match of this magnificent series I was reflecting that it is only a few months since England thought that Cook, Trott and Bell were essential to have a solid start and build a proper base in an ODI.

    Now 60 in the first 10 is really a minimum and as we saw in the last match 350 is not even par. This game is evolving as we watch and NZ (and Australia of course) are leading the way. It is marvellous entertainment.

    The impact of T20 was always going to have this sort of effect (and it appears to be happening in Tests as well). With the generational change, the players schooled in T20 will make a clear difference to how the game is played in all formats.
    Agreed. When 700+ runs in 100 overs becomes the norm how can we only have 250 off 90 in a test? Modern bats give the batters a huge advantage with even edges sailing for 6 on occasions. Australia has led the way (again) but surely tests are going to edge up to 5+ an over in the next few years.

    My son is a keen bowler but I am encouraging him to keep on at his batting. Being a bowler is going to need psychological counselling as much as physios over the next few years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,309

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
    You think he's had a good month in the media?
    He hasn't had a good time since he went way OTT during the debates with his appalling attack on HIV sufferers.

    I don't see how that has made leaving the EU 'worse and worse' though.
    Nigel Farage is the personification of leaving the EU. The public react accordingly.
    UKIP did poorly in the Byelections on Thursday and were below the LDs for the first time in ages in the Evening Standard poll last week.

    UKIP and Farage are a tarnished brand.
    I agree, and Farage in particular.

    But the likes of Kate Hoey will be campaigning for out, if you think it's all down to Farage you may be surprised.
    It's deliciously ironic that it will end up being the Out campaign who complain most bitterly about how much undeserved coverage Farage gets on TV.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    F1: Austria, pre-qualifying musing:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/austria-pre-qualifying.html

    I hope there's rain. Could help jumble the grid.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    I've always suspected Farage desperately want's to stay in the EU, as leaving sort of destroy's his future (not to mention booting him and Mrs F off the gravy train)

    I'm quite confident someone will "grasp the nettle" for NO though and take control of the campaign...

    YES already looks very complacent...
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    If Greece does get booted out of the Euro and does begin to prosper before our referendum then it will lend support to the Out campaign. Some even think they may be kicked out of the EU, I can't see it but it would be a barometer for the UK.

    Probably too short a timespan for them to start recovering but it would be interesting.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    The alternative, personified by Nigel Farage, is looking worse and worse.
    Really? Why?
    You think he's had a good month in the media?
    He hasn't had a good time since he went way OTT during the debates with his appalling attack on HIV sufferers.

    I don't see how that has made leaving the EU 'worse and worse' though.
    Nigel Farage is the personification of leaving the EU. The public react accordingly.
    UKIP did poorly in the Byelections on Thursday and were below the LDs for the first time in ages in the Evening Standard poll last week.

    UKIP and Farage are a tarnished brand.
    I agree, and Farage in particular.

    But the likes of Kate Hoey will be campaigning for out, if you think it's all down to Farage you may be surprised.
    It's deliciously ironic that it will end up being the Out campaign who complain most bitterly about how much undeserved coverage Farage gets on TV.
    Do you reckon Farage obsesses as much about you as you do him?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    GIN1138 said:

    I've always suspected Farage desperately want's to stay in the EU, as leaving sort of destroy's his future (not to mention booting him and Mrs F off the gravy train)

    I'm quite confident someone will "grasp the nettle" for NO though and take control of the campaign...

    YES already looks very complacent...

    I think people are attaching far too much importance to whether voters are pro or anti-Farage.

    The government's enjoying its honeymoon, people are prepared to give Cameron the benefit of the doubt, the dire headlines of 2011/12 have receded, and the MORI poll is in any case way out of line with other pollsters.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    You make the classic error - I suppose on purpose - of equating opposition to the EU with anti-European feeling. They are not the same thing and are not promoted to the public as the same thing.

    If that is to be the basis of your support for the EU then you really are very misguided.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,139
    edited June 2015
    " “Greece’s problems are four-fold: they have one of the least flexible labour markets in the developed world, they collect too little tax, they think it is OK for civil servants to retire in their mid-50s, and corruption is rife. Leaving the Euro will not solve any of those issues.”

    And he’s right. Indeed, there’s every reason to expect that a Greek government outside the Euro would use the flexibility that comes with an independent currency to put off solving those problems."

    Huh? rcs was only listing Greece's supply-side problems (and not even all of those: lack of a credible land registry, for instance, is an important one). And nobody has argued that pulling out of the euro would solve those. What it would do, if default and devaluation work as they should in the best case scenario, is create a more bouyant economic climate for solving them, so that not every reform is associated with economic pain and failure. Greece COULD still mess up outside the eurozone, but it undoubtedly IS messing up inside it.

    The demand-side problems are what are screwing Greece right now. The main ones are: a highly overvalued exchange rate, an insanely tight fiscal squeeze (from this point of view, Greece collects far too much tax) and a collapsing banking system (this is a supply-side problem, but its implications are mostly on the demand side). These simply not soluble within the eurozone, without an unthinkable level of charity from northern Europe.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've always suspected Farage desperately want's to stay in the EU, as leaving sort of destroy's his future (not to mention booting him and Mrs F off the gravy train)

    I'm quite confident someone will "grasp the nettle" for NO though and take control of the campaign...

    YES already looks very complacent...

    I think people are attaching far too much importance to whether voters are pro or anti-Farage.

    The government's enjoying its honeymoon, people are prepared to give Cameron the benefit of the doubt, the dire headlines of 2011/12 have receded, and the MORI poll is in any case way out of line with other pollsters.
    Currently, Cameron has a 49% approval rating, and the government has 43%. It's fair to assume that both numbers will be well down by Autumn 2016.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    JEO said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
    Much of what the 'In' posters claim is not true, TSE being a prime example.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    GIN1138 said:

    I've always suspected Farage desperately want's to stay in the EU, as leaving sort of destroy's his future (not to mention booting him and Mrs F off the gravy train)

    I'm quite confident someone will "grasp the nettle" for NO though and take control of the campaign...

    YES already looks very complacent...

    It is already happening. There is a Parliamentary Cross Party OUT campaign being organised at the moment with initial meetings to discuss who would be best placed to lead and how to get the widest possible spread of support. Currently involved are Steve Baker (Con), Douglas Carswell (UKIP), Kate Hoey (Lab), Kelvin Hopkins (Lab), Bernard Jenkin (Con), Owen Paterson (Con), and Graham Stringer (Lab). Also involved is Dominic Cummings.

    They are already in talks with many of the long standing anti-EU groups who seem so far to be happy to work under their potential banner.

    The key here will be getting a solid campaign group running that can rightly claim to be cross party. In that instance they have far more chance of sidelining Farage and so reducing the damage he might do.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    JEO said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
    Support for In and Out has fluctuated sharply over the years.

    The MORI poll finds the most popular position (a free trade area) is not the one that's on offer.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    GIN1138 said:

    (not to mention booting him and Mrs F off the gravy train)

    I think that's unfair. It's not Ukip and Farage's fault that PR is used for the Euro Elections and not for Westminster. I am sure Mr Farage would much rather be in the Commons.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    We used to fret about the Euro Sausage. I yearn for the days of merely straight bananas.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpipqJNFDOQ
    JEO said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,243
    "Vote Out and get your duty free allowance back"

    A certain vote winner.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited June 2015

    JEO said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
    Much of what the 'In' posters claim is not true, TSE being a prime example.
    So come on, Mr "The EDL are the voice of Reason" England, give an example or two, with links.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    edited June 2015
    Fishing said:

    "

    The demand-side problems are what are screwing Greece right now. The main ones are: a highly overvalued exchange rate, an insanely tight fiscal squeeze (from this point of view, Greece collects far too much tax) and a collapsing banking system (this is a supply-side problem, but its implications are mostly on the demand side). These simply not soluble within the eurozone, without an unthinkable level of charity from northern Europe.

    I think you are right.

    Greece needs to defer its debt repayments until it can afford them, and reflate its economy.
    Its creditors will not allow it to do this.

    So Greece should take unilateral action. It should declare its own debt repayment schedule - take it or leave it - and start issuing Euro IOUs (I promise to pay the bearer one euro from 1 Jan 2020). These will trade at a discount to real Euros but that is fine. It can pay pensions, salaries, invest in infrastructure and generally boost demand.

    It will be in technical default so it won't be able to borrow Euros but it can print its own IOUs. It will be a dual currency economy - still in the Eurozone but reflating its economy.

    It should tell its creditors to take a jump. I guess that is what it is doing.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    JEO said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
    Fox you really should consider changing the last two letters of your moniker to EU rather than UK, you clearly think the former is better than the latter and won't be happy until we are part of a federal United States of Europe, since that is the stated aim of the EU, which you are so keen to tie us ever closer to. You talk as if there is an option to continue as we are "just good friends" with the EU, but that isn't on the table, the two options available are "out" or "ever closer union", but dishonest Europhiles, which I hope you are not amongst would prefer the voters to believe that continuing as we are with that nice Mr Juncker is the end result of an IN referendum, where as every pronouncement from EU leaders, not to mention that founding articles of the EU show this to be a false and dangerous assumption.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    Sean_F said:


    Support for In and Out has fluctuated sharply over the years.

    The MORI poll finds the most popular position (a free trade area) is not the one that's on offer.

    Indeed. It is interesting to dig into the figures of that poll that TSE was so keen to trumpet yesterday.

    Given a choice of what they would like to see as far as the UK relationship with the EU goes:

    13% said they want to leave
    14% said they want closer union.

    They are the ones with a clear black and white view

    33% said they wanted a return to a economic Community with no political links
    31% said they wanted the relationship to stay as it is now.

    I don't think there is anyone on either side who is informed about the EU who believes either of these things are possible. They are not being offered and will not happen as long as we remain inside the EU.

    So we have 27% of the electorate equally split who have a realistic view of the EU and 64% who are are wanting something they simply cannot have. Rather similar I suppose to the situation in Greece where people want their cake and eat it.

    Oh and those numbers are no where near as bad as the headline figures TSE was pushing.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited June 2015

    JEO said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
    Much of what the 'In' posters claim is not true, TSE being a prime example.
    So come on, Mr "The EDL are the voice of Reason" England, give an example or two, with links.
    The biggest lie would be to say that you know where the EU will be in ten years time, there is just as much uncertainty in IN as there is in OUT. Would you guarantee we would not be in the euro ? Would you stake your life on there not being a single European Army ? Would you put your hand on your heart and promise there will be no single European police force ? Would you swear that there will be no EU Commission oversight and/or veto of national budgets ? You have no idea, and neither do the rest of us, all we know is it will be closer than it is now, because that is the fundamental purpose of the EU, and the explicit mission of the ECJ and the Commission.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,309
    edited June 2015


    Indeed. It is interesting to dig into the figures of that poll that TSE was so keen to trumpet yesterday.

    Given a choice of what they would like to see as far as the UK relationship with the EU goes:

    13% said they want to leave
    14% said they want closer union.

    They are the ones with a clear black and white view

    33% said they wanted a return to a economic Community with no political links
    31% said they wanted the relationship to stay as it is now.

    I don't see anything encouraging for your position in those numbers. If, as you say, the status quo is really 'closer union' then on these figures 45% would vote for it with a further 33% not wanting to be left out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Indigo said:

    JEO said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
    Much of what the 'In' posters claim is not true, TSE being a prime example.
    So come on, Mr "The EDL are the voice of Reason" England, give an example or two, with links.
    The biggest lie would be to say that you know where the EU will be in ten years time, there is just as much uncertainty in IN as there is in OUT. Would you guarantee we would not be in the euro ? Would you stake your life on there not being a single European Army ? Would you put your hand on your heart and promise there will be no single European police force ? Would you swear that there will be no EU Commission oversight and/or veto of national budgets ? You have no idea, and neither do the rest of us, all we know is it will be closer than it is now, because that is the fundamental purpose of the EU, and the explicit mission of the ECJ and the Commission.
    So no examples of me saying that eh?

    My mantra has always been we live in uncertain times, and predicting the future even in the short term is difficult, that's why I did a piece earlier on this week, saying that Grexit could have all sorts of consequences for In and Out.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamesTapsfield: Jeremy Corbyn suggests EU renegotiation should be used to bolster union rights & rules on working conditions. Maybe in a parallel universe
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    DavidL said:

    ...Modern bats give the batters a huge advantage....

    Yes, we know you are not English: So why shout your igornace? They are 'batsmen'....

    :expressionless:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690


    Indeed. It is interesting to dig into the figures of that poll that TSE was so keen to trumpet yesterday.

    Given a choice of what they would like to see as far as the UK relationship with the EU goes:

    13% said they want to leave
    14% said they want closer union.

    They are the ones with a clear black and white view

    33% said they wanted a return to a economic Community with no political links
    31% said they wanted the relationship to stay as it is now.

    I don't see anything encouraging for your position in those numbers. If, as you say, the status quo is really 'closer union' then on these figures 45% would vote for it with a further 33% not wanting to be left out.
    No. The point is that the status quo is not on offer and it then depends on how those voters split when they realise that is the case. The final choice is OUT or closer union. Neither of the other options is on offer.

    That is the message that the OUT campaign will be concentrating on. There is no status quo option.

    So how would you and the others on here waiting to see what Cameron delivers vote if that were the choice?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited June 2015

    Sean_F said:


    Support for In and Out has fluctuated sharply over the years.

    The MORI poll finds the most popular position (a free trade area) is not the one that's on offer.

    Indeed. It is interesting to dig into the figures of that poll that TSE was so keen to trumpet yesterday.

    Given a choice of what they would like to see as far as the UK relationship with the EU goes:

    13% said they want to leave
    14% said they want closer union.

    They are the ones with a clear black and white view

    33% said they wanted a return to a economic Community with no political links
    31% said they wanted the relationship to stay as it is now.

    I don't think there is anyone on either side who is informed about the EU who believes either of these things are possible. They are not being offered and will not happen as long as we remain inside the EU.

    So we have 27% of the electorate equally split who have a realistic view of the EU and 64% who are are wanting something they simply cannot have. Rather similar I suppose to the situation in Greece where people want their cake and eat it.

    Oh and those numbers are no where near as bad as the headline figures TSE was pushing.
    You mean the poll I heavily caveated and said was down in part to the Cameron/Tory honeymoon?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:

    JEO said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
    Fox you really should consider changing the last two letters of your moniker to EU rather than UK, you clearly think the former is better than the latter and won't be happy until we are part of a federal United States of Europe, since that is the stated aim of the EU, which you are so keen to tie us ever closer to. You talk as if there is an option to continue as we are "just good friends" with the EU, but that isn't on the table, the two options available are "out" or "ever closer union", but dishonest Europhiles, which I hope you are not amongst would prefer the voters to believe that continuing as we are with that nice Mr Juncker is the end result of an IN referendum, where as every pronouncement from EU leaders, not to mention that founding articles of the EU show this to be a false and dangerous assumption.
    The UK on my moniker is because on the Leicester city site there is another foxinsox.

    I am proud to be British, which is one of several overlapping identities including being English, Leicesterian (by choice) and European.

    I feel strong affinity with other Europeans and am perfectly capable of being fully British and fully European.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    Sean_F said:


    Support for In and Out has fluctuated sharply over the years.

    The MORI poll finds the most popular position (a free trade area) is not the one that's on offer.

    Indeed. It is interesting to dig into the figures of that poll that TSE was so keen to trumpet yesterday.

    Given a choice of what they would like to see as far as the UK relationship with the EU goes:

    13% said they want to leave
    14% said they want closer union.

    They are the ones with a clear black and white view

    33% said they wanted a return to a economic Community with no political links
    31% said they wanted the relationship to stay as it is now.

    I don't think there is anyone on either side who is informed about the EU who believes either of these things are possible. They are not being offered and will not happen as long as we remain inside the EU.

    So we have 27% of the electorate equally split who have a realistic view of the EU and 64% who are are wanting something they simply cannot have. Rather similar I suppose to the situation in Greece where people want their cake and eat it.

    Oh and those numbers are no where near as bad as the headline figures TSE was pushing.
    You mean the poll I heavily caveated and said was down to the Cameron/Tory honeymoon?
    I reread your thread header before I posted just to make sure I was right. Not once did you mention the underlying figures which frankly transform that poll.

    Why was that? Couldn't be bothered or didn't like what it showed?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    Indigo said:

    JEO said:

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    Thats not true at all. 20 years ago the EU was just a single market with few if any demans on sovereignty. Now its integrating on matters monetary, fiscal and political. And trying for military unification too. Your claims also do not back up the polling. Support for out is lower than a few years ago but far higher than a decade or two ago.
    Fox you really should consider changing the last two letters of your moniker to EU rather than UK, you clearly think the former is better than the latter and won't be happy until we are part of a federal United States of Europe, since that is the stated aim of the EU, which you are so keen to tie us ever closer to. You talk as if there is an option to continue as we are "just good friends" with the EU, but that isn't on the table, the two options available are "out" or "ever closer union", but dishonest Europhiles, which I hope you are not amongst would prefer the voters to believe that continuing as we are with that nice Mr Juncker is the end result of an IN referendum, where as every pronouncement from EU leaders, not to mention that founding articles of the EU show this to be a false and dangerous assumption.
    The UK on my moniker is because on the Leicester city site there is another foxinsox.

    I am proud to be British, which is one of several overlapping identities including being English, Leicesterian (by choice) and European.

    I feel strong affinity with other Europeans and am perfectly capable of being fully British and fully European.
    It's impossible to be both British and European?

    But, of course, they'll also tell you it's totally possible to be British and Scottish.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    So come on, Mr "The EDL are the voice of Reason" England, give an example or two, with links.

    You can't flag a moderator's post
    One-or-t'other: Debate or moderate. Do not insult the clientele with such [MODERATED]...!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    EPG said:


    It's impossible to be both British and European?

    But, of course, they'll also tell you it's totally possible to be British and Scottish.

    "European" as an identity is artificial and meaningless.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,309

    No. The point is that the status quo is not on offer and it then depends on how those voters split when they realise that is the case. The final choice is OUT or closer union. Neither of the other options is on offer.

    That is the message that the OUT campaign will be concentrating on. There is no status quo option.

    Your own view is that the last 40 years has been all about creeping eurofederalism. I'd say that's a long enough period to define what the status quo is and you appear to believe that this is very much on offer in the referendum.

    You can't expect every single voter to analyse the options in the same way you do.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So at the very time the EU is at its worst, and the whole thing looks like being in danger of collapse, the poll ratings for staying IN are the highest they have been for ages..?

    WTF?

    I really don't get it.

    In some ways I think it's a proxy approval rating for Angela Merkel. The polls would look very different if Germany had a different leader.
    I had an interesting conversation with a patient this week (a lull in the final Med School exams). His view (at the age of 70 and with two grandparents interned as Italian aliens) was that much British anti-europeanism dated from the emphasis in Britain on the two world wars. As these fade into history, and with the Cold war ending 3 decades ago, attitudes to Europe will become more positive.

    I think that he had a point. Angel Merkel is not to be feared, and neither is Juncker. Europe is a different and more positive place than in previous decades.
    I think it's much more deep-seated than that. There's a streak of bloddy-minded independence in the average Brit that simply doesn't like being told what to do. Even London is at best grudgingly accepted. And as you get further and further away, they are more and more resisted.

    Whereas Europeans have had tiers of princelings for multiple generations and basically just ignore them rather than resist.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    No. The point is that the status quo is not on offer and it then depends on how those voters split when they realise that is the case. The final choice is OUT or closer union. Neither of the other options is on offer.

    That is the message that the OUT campaign will be concentrating on. There is no status quo option.

    Your own view is that the last 40 years has been all about creeping eurofederalism. I'd say that's a long enough period to define what the status quo is and you appear to believe that this is very much on offer in the referendum.

    You can't expect every single voter to analyse the options in the same way you do.

    If people believed that the status quo meant ever closer union then why did only 14% say they wanted that?

    95% of the time 95% of the people don't think about politics. That fraction becomes even more extreme when you consider EU politics.

    But when they do think about it they often have their preconceptions shattered. That is what the OUT campaign aim to do. To make it clear that what people might want cannot be achieved inside the EU; that the claims that have long been whispered in the background about trading links free of political or judicial interference are not and never have been on offer.

Sign In or Register to comment.