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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: June 18th 2015

SystemSystem Posts: 12,218
edited June 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: June 18th 2015

North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences)
Result of last full election (2011): Conservatives 21, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 18)
Result of ward at last full election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,136, 1,001 (75%)
Labour: 381 (25%)
Candidates duly nominated:
Labour:

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    1st?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Andy, your link seems to be for a single consittuency. Are there official results for the country as a whole? (with x% counted)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    FPT The other blue parties support Rasmussen and not Dahl, so he will be supported by a majority of the majority to be Prime Minister.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    EPG said:

    FPT The other blue parties support Rasmussen and not Dahl, so he will be supported by a majority of the majority to be Prime Minister.

    Is it a proscribed vote, or political reality, that forces a coalition leader out?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Christchurch was a ludicrous 1-8 at the GE !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2015
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Andy, your link seems to be for a single consittuency. Are there official results for the country as a whole? (with x% counted)

    This links to every constituency. Doesn't have a national share:

    http://www.kmdvalg.dk/main
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FPT @ MyBurningEars

    Thanks for the link. So the lady in question was probably born over a hundred years after the death of her first husband's first wife's first husband, so she has no first hand knowledge of the person with the first hand knowledge of Cromwell.

    How is that different from me saying my grandfather's grandfather's grandfather sailed with Drake around the world (as far as I know, he did not but the maths work) and said Drake was an absolute sh*t?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    If we give votes to 16 year olds, how long is it before the left starts pushing for votes at 14?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    edited June 2015
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    EPG said:

    FPT The other blue parties support Rasmussen and not Dahl, so he will be supported by a majority of the majority to be Prime Minister.

    Is it a proscribed vote, or political reality, that forces a coalition leader out?
    Er... I don't think proscribed means what you think it means.

    Political reality is that the other blue parties want Rasmussen for a lot of reasons. Not least, they don't want a far-right figure as PM. (A funny kind of far-right though which is in practice closer to the left on some topics. So a bizarre fit for the Tories really, but anti-Europe headbanging overruled common sense there.)

    Remember than Danish political reality is not British political reality, and they have historically had occasions when even the top two parties were excluded from government, even when they supported the government! (1973)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2015
    "Many pundits here are left speechless by the way the exit polls and forecasts are heading."

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/jun/18/denmark-general-election-2015-results-live
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    David Williams @dwilliamsHSJ
    disappointingly, it's a secret ballot, so we can't name the 64 MPs who thought Tredinnick would be a good health cttee chair.
    Shame!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,238
    JEO said:

    If we give votes to 16 year olds, how long is it before the left starts pushing for votes at 14?

    Introducing an upper age limit at 70 is a higher priority for Labour.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Perhaps the Conservative Party should support and promote reform of the Lords, if you resent it so much? Oh, wait.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Have pollsters overstated the Left and understated the right AGAIN ?!

    Israel, UK, Denmark...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    There's a theme running here.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited June 2015
    Thanks to Harry, as ever, for the summaries.

    @MTimT: problem is us plebs aren't historically well-connected enough, are we? I do wonder what kind of folk memory exists within the Great & The Good. What the Queen Mum could remember ... did she really talk to courtiers who told her first-hand about The Duchess of Richmond's Ball to celebrate the victory at Waterloo, as I seem to recall seeing somewhere after her death?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Have pollsters overstated the Left and understated the right AGAIN ?!

    Israel, UK, Denmark...

    Bit soon for them to have modified their methods...
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    On topic. Holmwoods looks the more interesting election. I would expect the Conservatives to be reasonably happy to make one gain, though two are quite possible. The UKIP ward is the most likely IMHO, because the LDs in third place can be squeezed.

    Any idea when the results can be expected?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    "Many pundits here are left speechless by the way the exit polls and forecasts are heading."

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/jun/18/denmark-general-election-2015-results-live

    Perhaps the next Danish PM would not be named Rasmussen after all.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    EPG said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    EPG said:

    FPT The other blue parties support Rasmussen and not Dahl, so he will be supported by a majority of the majority to be Prime Minister.

    Is it a proscribed vote, or political reality, that forces a coalition leader out?
    Er... I don't think proscribed means what you think it means.

    Political reality is that the other blue parties want Rasmussen for a lot of reasons. Not least, they don't want a far-right figure as PM. (A funny kind of far-right though which is in practice closer to the left on some topics. So a bizarre fit for the Tories really, but anti-Europe headbanging overruled common sense there.)

    Remember than Danish political reality is not British political reality, and they have historically had occasions when even the top two parties were excluded from government, even when they supported the government! (1973)
    In terms of supporters' outlook, DPP are naturally a better fit with UKIP, as are Law and Justice in Poland.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Now you know how the Liberals felt, when the Conservative dominated Lords threw out their bills!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Live danish results, maps included:
    http://www.politiko.dk/valgresultat#/
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    EPG said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    EPG said:

    FPT The other blue parties support Rasmussen and not Dahl, so he will be supported by a majority of the majority to be Prime Minister.

    Is it a proscribed vote, or political reality, that forces a coalition leader out?
    Er... I don't think proscribed means what you think it means.

    Political reality is that the other blue parties want Rasmussen for a lot of reasons. Not least, they don't want a far-right figure as PM. (A funny kind of far-right though which is in practice closer to the left on some topics. So a bizarre fit for the Tories really, but anti-Europe headbanging overruled common sense there.)

    Remember than Danish political reality is not British political reality, and they have historically had occasions when even the top two parties were excluded from government, even when they supported the government! (1973)
    Typo for prescribed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    3 Tory victories for these by-elections I reckon.

    "We'll keep the blue flag flying high"
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    EPG said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    EPG said:

    FPT The other blue parties support Rasmussen and not Dahl, so he will be supported by a majority of the majority to be Prime Minister.

    Is it a proscribed vote, or political reality, that forces a coalition leader out?
    Er... I don't think proscribed means what you think it means.

    Political reality is that the other blue parties want Rasmussen for a lot of reasons. Not least, they don't want a far-right figure as PM. (A funny kind of far-right though which is in practice closer to the left on some topics. So a bizarre fit for the Tories really, but anti-Europe headbanging overruled common sense there.)

    Remember than Danish political reality is not British political reality, and they have historically had occasions when even the top two parties were excluded from government, even when they supported the government! (1973)
    It's clear that a lot of the European Right feel no affinity towards the European Peoples' Party and are, to a greater or lesser extent, eurosceptic.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    3 Tory victories for these by-elections I reckon.

    "We'll keep the blue flag flying high"

    I agree, they will win all 3.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I think it's not very surprising that the DPP is doing so well in Denmark, they have huge problems with imported muslim terrorists from Sweden.
    The DPP has promised to build a wall on the Copenhagen-Malmo bridge to prevent muslims immigrating to Denmark from Sweden.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,238
    Speedy said:

    I think it's not very surprising that the DPP is doing so well in Denmark, they have huge problems with imported muslim terrorists from Sweden.
    The DPP has promised to build a wall on the Copenhagen-Malmo bridge to prevent muslims immigrating to Denmark from Sweden.

    Well that will throw a spanner in the works for the next series of The Bridge.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited June 2015
    Speedy said:

    I think it's not very surprising that the DPP is doing so well in Denmark, they have huge problems with imported muslim terrorists from Sweden.
    The DPP has promised to build a wall on the Copenhagen-Malmo bridge to prevent muslims immigrating to Denmark from Sweden.

    The DPP made no such promise. It was a flippant (indeed illjudged) remark: "If they want to turn Stockholm, Gothenburg or Malmö into a Scandinavian Beirut, with clan wars, honour killings and gang rapes, let them do it. We can always put a barrier on the Øresund Bridge" in 2005(!).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    85.7% turnout !
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2015
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    I think it's not very surprising that the DPP is doing so well in Denmark, they have huge problems with imported muslim terrorists from Sweden.
    The DPP has promised to build a wall on the Copenhagen-Malmo bridge to prevent muslims immigrating to Denmark from Sweden.

    The DPP made no such promise. It was a flippant (indeed illjudged) remark: "If they want to turn Stockholm, Gothenburg or Malmö into a Scandinavian Beirut, with clan wars, honour killings and gang rapes, let them do it. We can always put a barrier on the Øresund Bridge" in 2005(!).
    That was an eerily accurate prophecy of modern Sweden.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Popular vote for the first 13 constituencies to declare, (a bit meaningless since I don't have changes):

    SD 26.35%
    Venstre 23.50%
    DPP 23.00%
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Speedy said:

    Live danish results, maps included:
    http://www.politiko.dk/valgresultat#/

    Probably just coincidence, but Radio 3 is currently playing Nielsen's Symphony n.3 (espansiva), having earlier played his sixth symphony.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Border controls seems to be the main demand of the DPP in coalition talks.

    http://www.thelocal.dk/20150618/live-denmark-goes-to-the-polls

    " “If these results hold up that would be sensational,” DF MP Søren Espersen told journalists.
    Among things that the Danish People’s Party MP mentioned that his party would fight for was bringing back border control. “But it’s for Kristian to decide what happens next [if DF becomes Denmark’s second-largest party]."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
    How many % of registered electors did the Lib Dems get?

    You will be getting a thread on the Salisbury Addison Convention shortly though
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
    The Tories won. They have their mandate.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
    How many % of registered electors did the Lib Dems get?

    You will be getting a thread on the Salisbury Addison Convention shortly though
    You don´t mean..... really mean...... at long last..... the Salisbury Addison Convention?

    I can heardly wait..... Wow!!!!

    Meanwhile, we have to recognise that our electoral system is not fit for purpose, and that no single political party has any moral justification for imposing its views on the rest of us.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,238
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Any suggestions for the hundred-odd UKIP peers he also needs to create?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Speedy said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    I think it's not very surprising that the DPP is doing so well in Denmark, they have huge problems with imported muslim terrorists from Sweden.
    The DPP has promised to build a wall on the Copenhagen-Malmo bridge to prevent muslims immigrating to Denmark from Sweden.

    The DPP made no such promise. It was a flippant (indeed illjudged) remark: "If they want to turn Stockholm, Gothenburg or Malmö into a Scandinavian Beirut, with clan wars, honour killings and gang rapes, let them do it. We can always put a barrier on the Øresund Bridge" in 2005(!).
    That was an eerily accurate prophecy of modern Sweden.
    Sweden's immigration/multiculturalism policies are bonkers.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Any suggestions for the hundred-odd UKIP peers he also needs to create?
    Any senior kipper who's fallen out with Farage - should be at least 100 of them.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    edited June 2015
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Any suggestions for the hundred-odd UKIP peers he also needs to create?
    Edit - beaten to it by Mr Nashe
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Sean_F said:

    EPG said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    EPG said:

    FPT The other blue parties support Rasmussen and not Dahl, so he will be supported by a majority of the majority to be Prime Minister.

    Is it a proscribed vote, or political reality, that forces a coalition leader out?
    Er... I don't think proscribed means what you think it means.

    Political reality is that the other blue parties want Rasmussen for a lot of reasons. Not least, they don't want a far-right figure as PM. (A funny kind of far-right though which is in practice closer to the left on some topics. So a bizarre fit for the Tories really, but anti-Europe headbanging overruled common sense there.)

    Remember than Danish political reality is not British political reality, and they have historically had occasions when even the top two parties were excluded from government, even when they supported the government! (1973)
    It's clear that a lot of the European Right feel no affinity towards the European Peoples' Party and are, to a greater or lesser extent, eurosceptic.
    Perhaps. But on the detail, the Danish People's Party combine nasty sectarianism against Muslims with pro-welfare chauvinism. So a bad fit for the Tories, who have no problems with either Muslims or welfare cuts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    edited June 2015
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
    Will be a temporary.

    The 400 new peers help pass a law that abolishes the Lords or a 100% elected Senate.

    The undemocratic Lib Dems need to realise the election showed Tory Party is Christian Grey to their Anastasia Steele
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
    Now there's a suggestion for the renovation work.

    Wembley Stadium.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Speedy said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    I think it's not very surprising that the DPP is doing so well in Denmark, they have huge problems with imported muslim terrorists from Sweden.
    The DPP has promised to build a wall on the Copenhagen-Malmo bridge to prevent muslims immigrating to Denmark from Sweden.

    The DPP made no such promise. It was a flippant (indeed illjudged) remark: "If they want to turn Stockholm, Gothenburg or Malmö into a Scandinavian Beirut, with clan wars, honour killings and gang rapes, let them do it. We can always put a barrier on the Øresund Bridge" in 2005(!).
    That was an eerily accurate prophecy of modern Sweden.
    No.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
    Now there's a suggestion for the renovation work.

    Wembley Stadium.
    Good idea.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    PClipp said:

    Meanwhile, we have to recognise that our electoral system is not fit for purpose, and that no single political party has any moral justification for imposing its views on the rest of us.

    Nonsense. This government has the confidence and supply of the House of Commons. It is legitimate. On your argument, no British government since 1935, and perhaps not even that has been legitimate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    edited June 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
    Will be a temporary.

    The 400 new peers help pass a law that abolishes the Lords or a 100% elected Senate.

    The undemocratic Lib Dems need to realise the election showed Tory Party is Christian Grey to their Anastasia Steele
    How about having the Crossbenchers + hereditaries drawn in proportion to the support of their party at the election?

    I'm less concerned about the size of the second chamber. A bigger chamber makes room for specialists on a wide range of issues.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,238
    Labour hustings news - I've been sent an e-mail to say that the Newcastle event is over-subscribed, so I'm not guaranteed a ticket. I blame all of these £3 Jonny-come-lately types. I think priority should go to those with 20 years or more membership.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    I feel sorry for the outers, having an egotistical thin skinned moron trying to be their front man.

    Ukip's deputy chairman Suzanne Evans has effectively been sacked as a party spokeswoman after saying leader Nigel Farage was perceived as "very divisive".

    She said Mr Farage should not lead the campaign to leave the European Union ahead of the referendum promised by the end of 2017 because of the way he was viewed.

    http://bit.ly/1Gv73Wu
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,238
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
    Now there's a suggestion for the renovation work.

    Wembley Stadium.
    The Millenium Dome has the appropriate history to house the House of Commons.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    edited June 2015
    MyBurningEars said:

    Thanks to Harry, as ever, for the summaries.

    @MTimT: problem is us plebs aren't historically well-connected enough, are we? I do wonder what kind of folk memory exists within the Great & The Good. What the Queen Mum could remember ... did she really talk to courtiers who told her first-hand about The Duchess of Richmond's Ball to celebrate the victory at Waterloo, as I seem to recall seeing somewhere after her death?

    the Duchess of Richmond's ball was held on the eve of Quatre Bras, ie three days before Waterloo. As it took place in 1815, and the Queen Mother was born in 1900, the witness would have had to have been very old and attended the ball as a child.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,238
    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    SandyRentool said:

    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.

    I hope this means we will also get at least one Jedi Master (or Sith Lord, who already have an appropriate title).
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SandyRentool said:

    Labour hustings news - I've been sent an e-mail to say that the Newcastle event is over-subscribed, so I'm not guaranteed a ticket. I blame all of these £3 Jonny-come-lately types. I think priority should go to those with 20 years or more membership.


    You were the future once.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    SandyRentool said:

    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.

    NO. Get rid of all religious people from the Lords..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PClipp said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
    How many % of registered electors did the Lib Dems get?

    You will be getting a thread on the Salisbury Addison Convention shortly though
    You don´t mean..... really mean...... at long last..... the Salisbury Addison Convention?

    I can heardly wait..... Wow!!!!

    Meanwhile, we have to recognise that our electoral system is not fit for purpose, and that no single political party has any moral justification for imposing its views on the rest of us.
    We would have a Con/UKIP coalition under PR. They got more than 50% combined.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    SquareRoot said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.

    NO. Get rid of all religious people from the Lords..
    Wouldn't be very proportional then would it?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for the outers, having an egotistical thin skinned moron trying to be their front man.

    Ukip's deputy chairman Suzanne Evans has effectively been sacked as a party spokeswoman after saying leader Nigel Farage was perceived as "very divisive".

    She said Mr Farage should not lead the campaign to leave the European Union ahead of the referendum promised by the end of 2017 because of the way he was viewed.

    http://bit.ly/1Gv73Wu

    Farage is going to lose the referendum single handedly.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    DPP come first in Fredericia:

    http://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2015/F710.htm
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.

    NO. Get rid of all religious people from the Lords..
    Wouldn't be very proportional then would it?
    I will not tolerate any Bishop bashing
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    PClipp said:

    Meanwhile, we have to recognise that our electoral system is not fit for purpose, and that no single political party has any moral justification for imposing its views on the rest of us.

    Nonsense. This government has the confidence and supply of the House of Commons. It is legitimate. On your argument, no British government since 1935, and perhaps not even that has been legitimate.
    Well this is the least legitimate, derived from the least representative parliament of them all.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    AndyJS said:

    DPP come first in Fredericia:

    http://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2015/F710.htm

    If the seats are 46/39 S/O, they are going to come first in a lot of places.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.

    NO. Get rid of all religious people from the Lords..
    Wouldn't be very proportional then would it?
    I will not tolerate any Bishop bashing
    You'll burn in hell TSE!

    For added effect, channel the late Ian Paisley when reading that.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.

    NO. Get rid of all religious people from the Lords..
    Wouldn't be very proportional then would it?
    I will not tolerate any Bishop bashing
    Can we bash Archbishop Wealthy of Canterbury?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    edited June 2015
    AndyJS said:

    PClipp said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
    How many % of registered electors did the Lib Dems get?

    You will be getting a thread on the Salisbury Addison Convention shortly though
    You don´t mean..... really mean...... at long last..... the Salisbury Addison Convention?

    I can heardly wait..... Wow!!!!

    Meanwhile, we have to recognise that our electoral system is not fit for purpose, and that no single political party has any moral justification for imposing its views on the rest of us.
    We would have a Con/UKIP coalition under PR. They got more than 50% combined.
    Left Wing supporters of PR should be careful what they wish for.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.

    NO. Get rid of all religious people from the Lords..
    Wouldn't be very proportional then would it?
    Well No bishops or any religious figures representation is absolutely proportional;. NIL for everybody.. NO Imans , no Bishops or Jedi Knights.. not one of them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Social Democrat vote has been flatlining or falling slightly in most of the seats I've seen so far. I guess it's expected they're going to do much better in Copenhagen where no results have been declared yet.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    EPG said:

    AndyJS said:

    DPP come first in Fredericia:

    http://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2015/F710.htm

    If the seats are 46/39 S/O, they are going to come first in a lot of places.
    There are a lot of scattered places where they are first but most of them are in southern Jutland.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    MyBurningEars said:

    Thanks to Harry, as ever, for the summaries.

    @MTimT: problem is us plebs aren't historically well-connected enough, are we? I do wonder what kind of folk memory exists within the Great & The Good. What the Queen Mum could remember ... did she really talk to courtiers who told her first-hand about The Duchess of Richmond's Ball to celebrate the victory at Waterloo, as I seem to recall seeing somewhere after her death?

    My two closest examples of that were my father's piano teacher was a student of Franz Listz, and my work colleagues' grammar school English lit teacher was William Golding.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for the outers, having an egotistical thin skinned moron trying to be their front man.

    Ukip's deputy chairman Suzanne Evans has effectively been sacked as a party spokeswoman after saying leader Nigel Farage was perceived as "very divisive".

    She said Mr Farage should not lead the campaign to leave the European Union ahead of the referendum promised by the end of 2017 because of the way he was viewed.

    http://bit.ly/1Gv73Wu

    Farage is going to lose the referendum single handedly.

    Dave truly is a lucky general.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
    Now there's a suggestion for the renovation work.

    Wembley Stadium.
    Wembley Stadium is my suggested location for the Imperial Senate for an expanded "Commonwealth Plus" including the whole Anglosphere. I would also create a "Grand Army of the Commonwealth" :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.

    NO. Get rid of all religious people from the Lords..
    Wouldn't be very proportional then would it?
    I will not tolerate any Bishop bashing
    You'll burn in hell TSE!

    For added effect, channel the late Ian Paisley when reading that.
    I'm already going to burn in hell
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Hmm Are there any European capitals where the soft left doesn't outperform slightly ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Were the DPP expected to come first in Ringsted? Not far from Copenhagen.

    http://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2015/F511.htm
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    PClipp said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
    How many % of registered electors did the Lib Dems get?

    You will be getting a thread on the Salisbury Addison Convention shortly though
    You don´t mean..... really mean...... at long last..... the Salisbury Addison Convention?

    I can heardly wait..... Wow!!!!

    Meanwhile, we have to recognise that our electoral system is not fit for purpose, and that no single political party has any moral justification for imposing its views on the rest of us.
    We would have a Con/UKIP coalition under PR. They got more than 50% combined.
    Left Wing supporters of PR should be careful what they wish for.
    I think left-wing people would probably prefer to see Con-Ukip in action so that Cam could be discredited.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    AndyJS said:

    PClipp said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
    How many % of registered electors did the Lib Dems get?

    You will be getting a thread on the Salisbury Addison Convention shortly though
    You don´t mean..... really mean...... at long last..... the Salisbury Addison Convention?

    I can heardly wait..... Wow!!!!

    Meanwhile, we have to recognise that our electoral system is not fit for purpose, and that no single political party has any moral justification for imposing its views on the rest of us.
    We would have a Con/UKIP coalition under PR. They got more than 50% combined.
    50.5% for Con+UKIP+DUP+UUP+TUV
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
    Now there's a suggestion for the renovation work.

    Wembley Stadium.
    Wembley Stadium is my suggested location for the Imperial Senate for an expanded "Commonwealth Plus" including the whole Anglosphere. I would also create a "Grand Army of the Commonwealth" :)
    Something like this, from the Royal Box (assuming Wembley has one):

    http://www.theforce.net/swtc/Pix/dvd/aotc/parade16.jpg
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    See under AV the winning party always gets over 50%.

    AV truly is a democratic and fair voting system.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    edited June 2015
    Yvette is kicked out!

    (...of Masterchef)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    #Denmark: 80% of results in so far. Danish People's Party exceeding expectations

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/jun/18/denmark-general-election-2015-results-live?CMP=twt_gu
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Jonathan said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    PClipp said:

    Meanwhile, we have to recognise that our electoral system is not fit for purpose, and that no single political party has any moral justification for imposing its views on the rest of us.

    Nonsense. This government has the confidence and supply of the House of Commons. It is legitimate. On your argument, no British government since 1935, and perhaps not even that has been legitimate.
    Well this is the least legitimate, derived from the least representative parliament of them all.
    The 2005-10 Parliament was more disproportionate. Labour won 55% of seats with 36% of the vote.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited June 2015
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
    Now there's a suggestion for the renovation work.

    Wembley Stadium.
    Wembley Stadium is my suggested location for the Imperial Senate for an expanded "Commonwealth Plus" including the whole Anglosphere. I would also create a "Grand Army of the Commonwealth" :)
    I thought that was crushed by the Russians in the 18th century?
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    The Greens, Labour, Lib Dems (SNP?) all included the proposal to give 16 and 17 years olds the vote in their manifestos.

    Cameron can claim (with some justification) that if the Lords insist on giving 16 and 17 years olds the vote then they are effectively implementing the manifestos of opposition parties via the back door.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,238
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm Are there any European capitals where the soft left doesn't outperform slightly ?

    Moscow?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2015
    Well I leave you tonight with Adventures in Trumpland, episode 3, Trump attacks Bush and Rubio:

    http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/trump--jeb-bush-is-an-unhappy-person-467440195739

    Have fun.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2015
    The American shooter suspect looks about 14 years old.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm Are there any European capitals where the soft left doesn't outperform slightly ?

    Stockholm, and there was Madrid until a few days ago... but I don't know why we would be surprised that large cities are less right-wing than suburbs and rural areas!
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Jonathan said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    PClipp said:

    Meanwhile, we have to recognise that our electoral system is not fit for purpose, and that no single political party has any moral justification for imposing its views on the rest of us.

    Nonsense. This government has the confidence and supply of the House of Commons. It is legitimate. On your argument, no British government since 1935, and perhaps not even that has been legitimate.
    Well this is the least legitimate, derived from the least representative parliament of them all.
    You were happy enough with your disproportionate landslide 97. You were happy with your 355 seats in 05 despite a 35% vote share.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
    The Commons far better represent the right-left split on this issue than the Lords, with its enormous left wing bias.

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    SquareRoot said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the House of Lords is to be proportional, we need fewer Bishops and more Imams.

    NO. Get rid of all religious people from the Lords..
    That Iran comparison is always (a bit unfairly) wheeled out for the argument against the bishops. Even though I'm not at all religious, I feel the bishops offer a useful voice. I wouldn't mind popping a couple of other poo-bahs with funny hats in there too, if it came to it.

    A bit like the Lords as a whole. In principle it's a terrible idea, but in practice it sort of works, on the whole. Plus, even though I'm a republican and a committed democrat (both uncapitalised, obvs), a part of me would really hate to do away with all of the history and general gaiety, pomp and whatnot. Like the old girl they sit in. I'd happily ditch a nuclear deterrent (an issue on which I'm still not wholly decided) to fix up the HoP.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Who are the Lords, an unelected House, to try to rig the electorate for democratic elections, over the heads of the democratic Commons that has just been put in by the people? Especially when the Lords is unrepresentative of the people due to massive Lib Dem overrepresentation and UKIP underrepresentation?

    Ha, ha, ha, JEO. The Tories could not even get the votes of 25% of the registered electors. They have no "democratic" mandate for anything. The Lords, albeit unelected, are probably more nearly representative of the population.

    I think we need a thread about voting reform.
    If you do not vote you do not care. The registered electors who do not vote do not vote for anybody. Bringing them into it is an admission of defeat.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    edited June 2015
    SandyRentool said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm Are there any European capitals where the soft left doesn't outperform slightly ?

    Moscow?
    Moscow was the only region where he got less than 50% of the vote in the last presidential election.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    SandyRentool said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm Are there any European capitals where the soft left doesn't outperform slightly ?

    Moscow?
    I was going to say Minsk.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    See under AV the winning party always gets over 50%.

    No.

    Stop. Right There.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BTW - Dave I know you read PB.

    If you need to create say 400 new Tory peers to deal with the undemocratic Lab and Lib Dems imbalance in the Lords, I'm willing to serve as a peer.

    Where are all those peers going to fit?
    The House of Lords isn't a stadium you know.
    Now there's a suggestion for the renovation work.

    Wembley Stadium.
    Wembley Stadium is my suggested location for the Imperial Senate for an expanded "Commonwealth Plus" including the whole Anglosphere. I would also create a "Grand Army of the Commonwealth" :)
    I thought that was crushed by the Russians in the 18th century?
    I've included the EU in the Commonwealth, by virtue of English being an official language and also more than half of EU citizens having some knowledge of English.

    I'm toying with expanding the EU's border to that Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, or at least to that of the Treaties of Brest-Litovsk/Riga/Tartu :)
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