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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on who will finish last in the Labour leadership elections
Thinking about last night’s debate, this market is hard to call, Jeremy Corbyn did well, and seemed to be the most authentic and had a passion that others seemed to lack. Yvette Cooper came off as the safety first candidate, whilst Andy Burnham had an annoying habit of talking over Laura Kuenessberg and the other candidates which did not look good.
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Like this...
https://twitter.com/lizforleader/status/611310963346796545
How will this inform us :-)
What’s all the fuss about? - Party before Country was de rigueur for 13 years, and still is.
I might have flicked over had I known but, then again, I'm unusual.
A conclusion from the Labour internal pollster (on that pbbetting thread) was that one of the main things they needed to improve to gain voters was a sense of nationalism about Labour.
But Kendall being right does not link to attracting Lab member's votes.
Until all the candidates get this or accept that they're on the Yellow Brick Road - they're going nowhere fast.
Still being in denial more than a month later is a worry [except for Corbyn who doesn't even try].
EDIT after thinking about how I felt about the presentation of each candidate last night. I'd still give it by a margin to Corbyn [he seemed in charge/grown-up], then Kendall [woolly, but trying hard], then Yvette [she seemed cold but took it fairly seriously] then Andy who appeared to be full of sugar - overtalking, emotional, joking about at the wrong time, being a clever dick.
I was most unimpressed by him.
Also a choice on who to back at this stage by signing up to individual candidates.
Re: last night's debate. Thought both Cooper and Burnham suffered from not answering the questions and instead tried putting their policy forward. Both (as well as Corbyn) fudged the question from the lady who earned less and paid taxes than some she knew who relied on benefits - also she was paying back excess from a previous benefit which had been screwed up by the DWP when she was on maternity leave.
Corbyn, Cooper and Burnham all ignored the reality of the UK's economic situation and state of global competitiveness, by wanting to increase minimum wage etc, and not wanting to make benefits affordable and smaller than the rewards from working.
Only Kendall was at all realistic economically and she had to tread carefully in front of a left-wing audience.
Next time, Kunesburg needs a microphone cut-off switch and perhaps too many topics were covered instead of a more in depth debate on fewer subjects for the hour allowed.
EDIT: Corbyn was most impressive - but he talked rot. Burnham and Cooper had not let 2010 behind - let alone 2015 and ignored questions of how they would effect policies. Kendall needs to sharpen up but could well learn from this experience - her trouser suit was not smart enough either, compared to how Cooper was dressed. Yes I know this may be sexist, but she was up for an important interview.
I still plan to give first pref to Corbyn to 'send a message', however.
The last dinosaur is waiting for its fate.
http://tinyurl.com/pdcheyc
"According to the report, about 23% of people live in poverty in Wales, compared with 17% of the UK’s population. It says that while the number living below the poverty line has fallen in other deprived areas, such as north-east England, it has remained static in Wales. The number of people turning to food banks doubled between April 2013 and March 2014, the report says.”
Welsh Labour has done worst of all on food banks ... after all the huffing and puffing from Labour.
Imagine him more swarthy and with a 5 o'clock shadow
I was also disappointed in Kendall. If she is going to be the new Blair leading Labour back to the promised land she needs to be much sharper than that.
Corbyn came across as more of a conviction politician than any of them but this is a real problem for Labour since his convictions won't let them hold the seats they have currently got. He just might get an audience in Scotland though, not sure if any of the others would.
Cooper is just playing it too safe. She is coming across as dull and I don't think she is. Way too managerial: what does she think?
David Dimbleby presents topical debate from High Wycombe. The panel includes former leader of the SNP Alex Salmond MP, Conservative former shadow home secretary David Davis MP, Labour's shadow energy secretary Caroline Flint MP, editor of the Financial Times Lionel Barber and columnist Melanie Phillips
Of course, that luscious fruit did eventually rot. Maybe it was always rotten, but it had such a sweet scent.
I don’t see anyone on the hustings with the ability of Blair to assemble an election winning coalition of voters with disparate interests. Which is what Labour now need.
Kendall has the ambition and ruthlessness of early Blair, but not his talent nor his experience nor his influence in the party. And she faces a much more difficult electoral landscape.
Labour would be best with Yvette. I think she comes across much more consensual than Burnham, less party-driven, much more likely to build bridges with the Greens and the SNP and other allies.
It seems very likely that when Labour do return to power, it will be in a coalition (like the Tories after their long spell in opposition). They need a coalition builder who can cut a deal with Sturgeon and Lucas.
I think Henry G Manson is right and Yvette will win this.
Neither of us know how many fanatics the Kippers will have come 2020, but I would suggest that considerably more than half of white non-graduate voters are willing to listen to them.
This is a betting website - I don't come here to be swayed in my political views, but to find out how to take even more money off William Hill
I suppose in today's media-friendly environment it is an ok thing for him.
Talking over Laura Kuenssberg? The varlet!
Miss Plato, it's a bizarre waste of money, at the same a BBC bigwig (Danny someone, I think) is threatening to remove programmes from broadcast if the BBC doesn't get a licence fee increase.
I mean does anyone have to point this out?
@MSmithsonPB: In 2010 just 8.5% of LAB members gave Andy Burnham their first choice - tonight we found out why. He's a loser.
@Pitonman: @MSmithsonPB your not usually this partisan. What's changed?
@MSmithsonPB: @Pitonman In 2007 I wrote post after post on PB saying Brown would be electoral disaster for LAB. The same now applies to Burnham.
He's an utter fool.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3129004/BBC-working-technology-allow-viewers-change-TV-channel-concentrating.html#ixzz3dOaWZFil
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You chose an impressively polite four letter word for him.
It was a really odd way to behave.
But who is the Ed this time?
Cooper seems the least distinctive to me. If I was Labour I'd be asking myself, why Cooper?
She looks professional but comes across as robotic, cold and devoid of any passion. In fact, she is just that: a void. At least Kendall and Burnham were pumped up.
How is Cooper going to inspire floating voters to return to Labour?
What I can safely say is that it won't be Cooper and Burnham as they are forever tainted by the Brown Government. I've seen nothing from them except more of the same and that really doesn't solve any of Labour's problems.
Labour's problem is that they need to move in 2 opposite directions at the same time. To the left to rescue the mess that is Scottish Labour but at the same time to the right to win seats outside London and the North.. They can't do both and while Corbyn may solve the Scottish problem, and Kendall the English problem, Burnham and Cooper solve neither and probably exasperate both.
Well, the Euro is very strong this morning, although European equity markets are quite weak (down 0.3-0.5% across the board).
Not a lot to say really: the Greek Central Bank yesterday said there was a deal in place, but as I think we all know, SYRIZA won't accept the IMF demands for a rise to civil servants pension ages nor VAT reform.
Given how public this all is, I simply can't see the IMF folding, and I can't see the Eurozone heads of state breaking with the IMF. There may be a compromise available (VAT reform more limited than anticipated, phased rises to civil servant retirement age), but I think the first step is going to have to come from Athens. And I don't think think that Tsipiras is willing to do that. (For that matter, I'm not sure his government survives compromise. Nor, for that matter, am I sure it survives Grexit.)
If I didn't die of laughter first.
She reminds me of the granny in Andy Capp.
I've just received an email from Bernstein, one of the largest investment banks in the world, regarding trading in Greek securities. It's a "how we will deal with Greek securities in the event of capital controls" email.
I'm sure that all the banks are thinking this way, and suggests that the financial system is relatively well prepared for Grexit.
They write some interesting research pieces from time to time - much more thoughtful and better resources than the other independents & at least they're not a corporate shill - but definitely not "one of the largest investment banks in the world"!
I think they are probably the best research house on the street (along with Cowen)
An understatement if ever there was one.
I take there was no ‘exit poll’ after last night’s televised leadership hustings, or did I miss it? – I did find this however which I thought a tad amusing, - Tories4Corbyn appear to have occupied enemy territory…?
Daily Mirror vox poll – Corbyn 81%. Cooper 7%. Kendall 7%. Burnham 5%.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-leadership-debate-jeremy-corbyn-5902368#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Best outcome for Greek people: organised Grexit with the support of the IMF and sensible economic policies.
But I think SYRIZA has taken that option off the table. Leaving the Eurozone, while the IMF continues to hound you for unpaid debts (cutting off your access to the financial markets), and with your currency in free fall, is not an attractive option.
The tories have never had to do this, and they never will, they are the party of the establishment, and always will be will.
But, what is Labour for? Until they decide that as a party, then how can they elect a leader when they don't know what he/she should represent?
Audience in Nuneaton net said they'd be LESS likely to vote labour after seeing leadership candidates
That is just hilarious. Cheered me up this morning - fantastic!
Let's stop talking about Grexit and instead about "a currency event".
However as she is engaging first gear, GO has accelerated down the motorway - leaving her to breathe in his dirty air. As was expressed last night by members of the audience - there is not much difference between new-Labour and the centre-dominating Cons. So what is the future purpose of Labour and what message/vision should they come up with - as a lack of vision was a major reason given by some people for not voting Labour and voting for the Cons who had/have a vision for the future UK.
What do you think of Baird?
Frankly, will anyone trust our polling comapnies? Not until they explain why they got it wrong and how they will fix it. The BPC Review is urgent and for the polling companies essential before any new polls.
Dream ticket!
None of these people gets beyond the primary issue the voters will have with Labour in 2020, as they had in 2015:
Labour - why would you take the risk?
It was most noticeable that last night Corbyn, Cooper and Burnham expected the UK to carry on and pay people more, when we are not competitive or sufficiently efficient to compete with the Asians. Where they expect to get the money from to pay for their public sector demands was carefully not explained - too small a detail or too difficult?
So, nobody other than a racist would ever vote UKIP?
What about all the people from ethnic minorities who not only vote UKIP but stand as UKIP candidates for election?
None of these 4 are Blair, and they only tolerated him, rather than embracing him.
However, what it really shows is that Labour is utterly screwed and needs to find a reason for its existence. For many people who vote Labour its simply the "not the Tories party" (as we don't like them) and that is not going to be enough. Especially in places like Hartlepool and Sunderland where the Conservatives are no longer the party with the second biggest vote...
This world is not built for 7bn + people.
*However, this does require humans to stop acting like humans, which is a key flaw of most idealist and religious dogma.
As did New Lab in '97 in a similar environment. (Edit: and of course as the Cons nearly did in '10).
The rest, in the interim, is details.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-06-17/martin-schultz-britain-belongs-to-the-eu/
Would Labour die, split or be replaced as it could take them another 3 elections to recover.
However, if Liz K is chosen as leader, then we could well see Corbyn's left and the unions split away and form a new party.
But IANALPM!!