"Sources said between around 50 Conservative MPs were likely to back the changes which the rebels insist are necessary to ensure that the European Union referendum is fair to both sides. The rebels' amendments ensure that the Government cannot publish pro-European reports on the eve of the vote, nor hold the in/out referendum on the same day as other elections."
Apparently, the government just wants to make sure ministers can "make their case". Well, fine, but do it out of the funds of the In campaign - not taxpayer money.
Surely when the vote is open to the public Corbyn has a genuine chance of getting enough support from rank and file members of the Labour Party. The leadership and MPs might be dominated by the Islington Clique but surely the wider party want a genuine left wing alternative?
...fewer than two out of ten of ordinary Conservative party members would vote for the UK to leave the EU regardless of whatever reforms Prime Minister David Cameron manages to obtain in the run-up to a referendum. In marked contrast, nearly two-thirds of them say that their vote depends on the outcome of negotiations, while one in five say they would vote to stay in the EU no matter what.
Kind of weird way of presenting it. Surely '2 in 10' and '1 in 5' are the same thing. Why use different wording for two groups who are effectively equally balanced in their amount of support?
Their graph shows that they aren't balanced, it looks like 15% for OUT regardless and 19% for IN regardless. In other words "fewer than two out of ten" really means "one and a half out of ten". Just an odd choice of words, why not use the percentages throughout?
...fewer than two out of ten of ordinary Conservative party members would vote for the UK to leave the EU regardless of whatever reforms Prime Minister David Cameron manages to obtain in the run-up to a referendum. In marked contrast, nearly two-thirds of them say that their vote depends on the outcome of negotiations, while one in five say they would vote to stay in the EU no matter what.
Kind of weird way of presenting it. Surely '2 in 10' and '1 in 5' are the same thing. Why use different wording for two groups who are effectively equally balanced in their amount of support?
The numbers are:
BOO: 15.3 BOI: 19.4 Depends: 63.3
Base size was ±1200 - so BOI probably just ahead, but the overwhelming majority 'depends'
Presumably Jeremy Corbyn will siphon off some of Andy Burnham's first preferences. On the other hand, Andy Burnham will look correspondingly more centrist and be able to triangulate better to attract first and second preferences more easily from the centre and the right of the party membership. A net positive for him overall?
Corbyn cut it fine... Posted at 12:09 Reports suggest that Jeremy Corbyn received that crucial 35th nomination to get on the ballot paper as Big Ben chimed at 12:00 BST.
Presumably Jeremy Corbyn will siphon off some of Andy Burnham's first preferences. On the other hand, Andy Burnham will look correspondingly more centrist and be able to triangulate better to attract first and second preferences more easily from the centre and the right of the party membership. A net positive for him overall?
Let's hope so! For the sake of the country and my betting slips. I'm still voting Corbyn first preference though.
Presumably Jeremy Corbyn will siphon off some of Andy Burnham's first preferences. On the other hand, Andy Burnham will look correspondingly more centrist and be able to triangulate better to attract first and second preferences more easily from the centre and the right of the party membership. A net positive for him overall?
I don't really see Corbyn's presence making any difference, TBH.
The key to this is whether it is Liz or Yvette who gets eliminated in the second round. The way things are panning out, it looks as though it will be Liz. Her second prefs will probably go largely to Yvette.
My reading is therefore that the current odds are wrong. Liz should certainly be longer than the market currently shows, and the odds on Yvette should be much shorter; perhaps she should even be the favourite.
Presumably Jeremy Corbyn will siphon off some of Andy Burnham's first preferences. On the other hand, Andy Burnham will look correspondingly more centrist and be able to triangulate better to attract first and second preferences more easily from the centre and the right of the party membership. A net positive for him overall?
The net benefit for Burnham must be in getting new voters into the contest. They'll join for Corbyn but put Burnham 2.
Comments
Jeremy Corbyn550 £2.00 £1,098.00
Lay
Jeremy Corbyn283.9 £2.00 £565.80
"Sources said between around 50 Conservative MPs were likely to back the changes which the rebels insist are necessary to ensure that the European Union referendum is fair to both sides.
The rebels' amendments ensure that the Government cannot publish pro-European reports on the eve of the vote, nor hold the in/out referendum on the same day as other elections."
Apparently, the government just wants to make sure ministers can "make their case". Well, fine, but do it out of the funds of the In campaign - not taxpayer money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11674174/Fifty-Conservative-MPs-to-challenge-David-Cameron-over-rigged-EU-referendum-rules.html
So, so, stupid.
BOO: 15.3
BOI: 19.4
Depends: 63.3
Base size was ±1200 - so BOI probably just ahead, but the overwhelming majority 'depends'
George Eaton✔@georgeeaton - Corbyn is the most left-wing candidate in a Labour leadership election since Tony Benn in 1988.
Piers Morgan✔@piersmorgan - If Jeremy Corbyn's the future of the Labour Party, they won't win back power for another 100 years.
Dan Hodges✔@DPJHodges - Across the nation people are saying "Jeremy Corbyn is on the ballot. Finally, the Labour party is listening to us".
Posted at 12:09
Reports suggest that Jeremy Corbyn received that crucial 35th nomination to get on the ballot paper as Big Ben chimed at 12:00 BST.
I'm still voting Corbyn first preference though.
Andy Burnham - 59
Yvette Cooper - 56
Liz Kendall - 37
Jeremy Corbyn - 35
The key to this is whether it is Liz or Yvette who gets eliminated in the second round. The way things are panning out, it looks as though it will be Liz. Her second prefs will probably go largely to Yvette.
My reading is therefore that the current odds are wrong. Liz should certainly be longer than the market currently shows, and the odds on Yvette should be much shorter; perhaps she should even be the favourite.
Of course this is largely hunch at the moment.
Oh please let there be a god.
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