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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We are more than six months away from the primaries yet the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We are more than six months away from the primaries yet the betting suggests that WH16 is almost all settled
With all the focus on the British general election and its aftermath we’ve tended to ignore what’s set to be massive political betting event – the 2016 White House race. What I like about them is the whole series of events and elections that lead to the first Tuesday in November when the voters actually decide.
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Just like it was 1992 all over again in Blighty this year
The 2.1% increase in primary numbers is equivalent to six more pupils for every school.
"Minority ethnic pupils made up 71% of the increase," says the Department for Education's school census report.
The annual figures show there are now more super-sized primary schools.
It will mean more funding demands to create extra places and pressure on places for families looking for schools.
There are now 87 primary schools with more than 800 pupils, up from 77 in 2014 and 58 in 2013.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33094304
Shouldn't be a surprise to anyone except Labour, when almost uncontrolled immigration is allowed.
Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham today said he was prepared to offer a “helping hand” to rivals without enough nominations to stand in the contest.
Mr Burnham said he would agree to push some of his backers towards other contenders to ensure they made the final shortlist if they needed help to get “over the line”.
It came as the shadow health secretary’s support grew even further to 60 MPs — almost double the required number of 35
http://bit.ly/1FUOZ4u
I'm exceedingly proud of UKIP for speaking sense on Russia. It would be very easy for them to wrap themselves in the flag 'Fox News' style and Russia-bash even more than everyone else to get some positive press. Instead they've decided to speak truth to power and challenge the utter absurdity of our American-dictated posture toward Russia.
I will give 5-1 on the United Kingdom ceasing to be a part of Europe within the next ten years**.
I'm happy to take bets of any size.
** For the purposes of this bet, "ceasing to be a part of Europe" refers to the geographical location of the United Kingdom. So long as the distance between London, England and Brussels, Belgium is less than the distance between London, England and Washington DC, USA, then the United Kingdom will be considered to be a part of Europe.
Does he look happy or sad?
This is the best thread ever
wherein the author uses some spurious stats to support her argument about trafficked women in nail bars.
And the best comment:
Just over 30% of primary school kids are from an ethnic minority
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33094304
Does this include Poles/Latvians etc? If so it's not that surprising
If NOT, it seems a very large number to my untrained eyes. Total numbers of pupils increasing a lot, over 2% in a year.
Not to politicians: EXPECT THESE PUPILS TO ALSO GO TO SECONDARY SCHOOL IN A FEW YEARS AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY
(Capitals because history tells us they are a bit slow on the uptake and to plan for these things...)
Awesome...
Lover of the Russian queen
There was a cat that really was gone
Vladimir Putin
Russia's greatest love machine
It was a shame how he carried on
NH Walker or Paul
SC ?
Nevada Paul
Bush has no chance. NH will be key.
The focus groups of republican voters in Iowa and N.Hampshire are strongly against Bush as they think he is unelectable, also he is the second most unpopular republican after Chris Christie within his own party.
And there are more nails on his coffin today:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/06/10/shaming-unwed-moms-was-the-law-in-jeb-bush-s-florida.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/09/jeb-bush-1995-book_n_7542964.html
"Public shaming would be an effective way to regulate the “irresponsible behavior” of unwed mothers, misbehaving teenagers and welfare recipients, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) argued in his 1995 book Profiles in Character.
In a chapter called "The Restoration of Shame,” the likely 2016 presidential candidate made the case that restoring the art of public humiliation could help prevent pregnancies “out of wedlock.”
"Bush points to Nathaniel Hawthorne's 1850 novel The Scarlet Letter, in which the main character is forced to wear a large red "A" for "adulterer" on her clothes to punish her for having an extramarital affair that produced a child, as an early model for his worldview. "Infamous shotgun weddings and Nathaniel Hawthorne's Scarlet Letter are reminders that public condemnation of irresponsible sexual behavior has strong historical roots,” Bush wrote."
So Bush is in favour to force people to wear symbols on their clothes to point them as social outcasts, what's next? Will jews be forced to wear the star of david?
Presumably the concern is that supporters of those who don't get on will plump for one of the others who do get on?
Typical scheming socialist!
30% BME then, on average. I would have thought only a few inner city areas hit that level anywhere, but that implies it's well above that in many places. Must be to balance out the <<5% in most rural areas.
Can anyone name them?
Bush, unlikely I'd say. Can't really see why he'd stand out over other 2016 GOP contenders. He's not a very good speech maker, he hasn't won an election since 2002, and his last name is Bush.
Rand Paul would be the best shout for the GOP in terms of the general election, however I think they are going to pick Walker of Rubio.
With help from unlikely sources, Diane Abbott made it on to the ballot to contest the Labour leadership, where the backbencher – admittedly Cambridge educated herself – will take on four white, male Oxbridge educated ex-cabinet ministers who were all special advisers before becoming MPs.
David Miliband, one of the contenders, transferred his nomination to Abbott, the leftwing MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington, this morning, 24 hours after acting Labour leader Harriet Harman did the same in an attempt to get a woman on to the ballot.
http://bit.ly/1S7zZsN
Of course, this far out, many a slip twist cup and lip.
Argentina president attacks 'ill-mannered' Cameron over Falklands
http://bit.ly/1GvCrFn
Rubio would beat her, but I have this sneaking feeling that the Republicans won't choose him.
Rand Paul would be an incredible result from a betting perspective...
Fiorina could be a good bet to be on the ticket.
Walker will have higher negatives than Rubio or any other GOP frontrunner, but he'll drive the base better, and probably win over many more independents than most would predict, who will discount his conservatism in favour of his realism on the (un)sustainability of benefits and wages in the public sector.
(In case anyone is in contact with him, it was his bet with me that Labour would get more than 34% of the UK wide vote at the General Election. Entered into around the time of the "Omnishambles" budget.... You know, that one that laid the groundwork for winning the election. Or losing it on the Pasty Tax, depending on your position.)
Lower class whites in the upper Midwest will be the key, Walker has staked out positions on immigration, even name checking Jeff Sessions, that will help aside from the fact he doesn't have Romney's background. I wouldn't underestimate him.
"The International Monetary Fund is pulling out of negotiations with Greece in Brussels at least temporarily, citing "major differences" and a lack of progress in key areas."
Deputy First Minister John Swinney has leapt to the defence of the SNP's plan for full fiscal autonomy despite Scottish Parliament analysis which found that plummeting oil prices could lead to a £9.7 million cut in public spending.
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/snp-defends-fiscal-autonomy-plan-1.883171
I still think Cameron would be PM even if DM had beaten his brother.
Also, the unions he exempted were unions the general public has most sympathy for - IIRC firefighters and police.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/11/george-osborne-pressure-slow-welfare-cuts
I was flying that day.......LHR-HKG
"In a significant blow to the Scottish National party’s quest for full fiscal autonomy, the OBR said it now believed the sector could only generate a total of about £2bn in tax revenues over the 20 years from 2020 to 2041, compared with its forecast last year of £37bn for the same period."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/11/scotland-fiscal-autonomy-north-sea-oil-tax-forecast-slashed-obr
Must be a lonely world you inhabit.
And it would be such an open goal for Labour, the Lib Dems and SNP.
There must be other ways of making cuts to the welfare budget?
But OAPs vote so no chance of them being cut.
There have been so many......
The 'Russian' version has had so many iterations I've lost track - do you have a favourite?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/22/mh17-five-bizarre-conspiracy-theories-zionist-plots-illuminati-russian-tv
Prezza has it right.
Putin is spending lots of money on an online army of Pro Russian trolls/sock puppets and we get the Roubleland versions.
I don't pretend to know what happened, and since the official reports haven't yet concluded anything, neither can you.
I agree. Clinton-Bush isn't carved in stone.
http://m.spiegel.de/international/world/a-1037125.html
Germans again using Spiegel to brief against the US. Interestingly the US hasn't updated their analysis since the event.
The report said MH17 crashed due to a "large number of high-energy objects" penetrating the fuselage. "There are no indications that the MH17 crash was caused by a technical fault or by actions of the crew...
Russian authorities have suggested in the past that other theories were possible, including that the plane may have been shot down from the air. However, the report found no military aircraft in the vicinity.
"It's consistent with a hit by a ground missile," said Joris Melkert, a lecturer in aerospace engineering at the Technical University of Delft. "What could cause a pattern of high velocity particles 10 kilometers up in the sky?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/09/us-ukraine-crisis-mh17-investigation-idUSKBN0H40LM20140909
That does not mean cuts are unnecessary or unavoidable though.
Hopefully changes in the law such as the CSA (if it was ever improved after the farces of the early days) should help your sister. Is the b-i-l paying CSA?
But I would suspect the first reaction to Grexit would be a sell off in the Euro, as there would be an immediate concern that Portugal or Spain could follow.
When Portugal and Spain did not follow, and the Eurozone found itself not worrying about the problems in Greece, then I'd think it might strengthen, perhaps considerably.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainian_aircraft_losses_during_the_Ukrainian_crisis
They killed 49 people on an IL76 military transport a month before.
The rebels had the means, the track record, and the motive to be shooting down aircraft.
But Hillary will win easily in probably the most loopsided result since 1988 or 1996 against all republican candidates with the exception of Rand Paul.
Using the old rule book of republicans never nominating the most electable candidate it excludes Rand Paul from the nomination.