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SystemSystem Posts: 12,218
edited June 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling Matters/PB Podcast: Professor John Curtice discusses the Exit Poll

In a slightly shorter version of the Polling Matters podcast (14 mins 23 secs) Keiran discusses the exit poll with Professor John Curtice. We discuss how it was done and how Professor Curtice felt when he realised it was about to say something very different to what the opinion polls had said.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FPT

    Liz Kendall got booed slightly at a hustings today.

    17:33
    Kendall says socialism is not dead, but it needs to change. We need to be as passionate about wealth creation as about inequality, she says. (There is some very quiet, murmured booing near where I’m sitting when she says this.)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jun/06/labour-leadership-hustings-at-fabian-summer-conference-politics-live
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Deficit denial has lost two elections so far. Looks like a fair few are going for the hat-trick.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Danny565 said:

    FPT

    Liz Kendall got booed slightly at a hustings today.

    17:33
    Kendall says socialism is not dead, but it needs to change. We need to be as passionate about wealth creation as about inequality, she says. (There is some very quiet, murmured booing near where I’m sitting when she says this.)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jun/06/labour-leadership-hustings-at-fabian-summer-conference-politics-live

    Utterly shocking. How can they keep getting it wrong time after time. You have to create wealth before you can redistribute. How on earth can you boo someone for saying they are passionate about wealth creation?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Previous thread. The elephant in the room for Labour is how are they going to win all the lost seats in Scotland, the country where they suffered their biggest defeat losing 98% of their seats.
    That Guardian article sums it up with .....what they are not going to do..... Just clueless.
    "Burnham has clarified his position on having a separate Scottish Labour party and said he is opposed to the idea. At one point earlier in the campaign he suggested he was open to the suggestion. Cooper also said she was opposed to the proposal, and Kendall and Mary Creagh suggested having a separate party was not the solution to Labour’s problems in Scotland."
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Why is it that the discussion on this site is so at odds with the economic reality?
    http://handandmouse.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/the-crumbling-case-for-austerity.html

    Opposing further austerity is not "deficit denial".

    (and yes, I have backed Jeremy Corbyn)
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    After 8 excruciating days in worldwide headlines due to the FBI investigating FIFA for corruption and bribery, Blatter resigns and then spends his first day back at his desk working on 'reforms'.

    Coincidentally the next day FIFA's woes are swept away from the headlines by the Chinese hacking into the Office of Personnel Management and stealing 4.4 million federal employee records.

    Coincidence?

    What chance of China getting FIFA World Cup 2026? :-)
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    handandmouse said:

    Why is it that the discussion on this site is so at odds with the economic reality?
    http://handandmouse.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/the-crumbling-case-for-austerity.html

    Opposing further austerity is not "deficit denial".

    (and yes, I have backed Jeremy Corbyn)

    It's not austerity when you are spending £90 billion a year more than you are earning. That's not austerity, that's profligacy.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    handandmouse said:

    Why is it that the discussion on this site is so at odds with the economic reality?
    http://handandmouse.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/the-crumbling-case-for-austerity.html

    Opposing further austerity is not "deficit denial".

    (and yes, I have backed Jeremy Corbyn)

    Do you read the stuff you link to? From your link to the Reuters report on The IMF: "The austerity debate has become a hot political topic in countries such as the United Kingdom and Greece as voters protest the pain of budget cuts" Guess the reporter didn't think to Google "UK election result"


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    handandmouse said:

    Why is it that the discussion on this site is so at odds with the economic reality?

    Reflective of public perception and political reality instead perhaps? The article you link to comments on the coalition policies and how the Labour leadership candidates, bar Corbyn, are not fighting austerity - therefore, it is safe to say that the two big parties plus at the least the LDs, and therefore many (though not all) of their supporters support some measure of austerity as well. Most people agree with the need to rein in spending, though they disagree on how much, where to rein it in and how quickly to do it. Even if this site were a perfect representative of the public, which obviously it is not, it would follow that most would therefore support a similar position.

    I do take issue with the summary in particular though:

    Summary: In selecting a leader, Labour must look ahead to the next election, which will surely take place after the disintegration of the current flawed economic dogma. The consequence of failure to see beyond 2015 will be irrelevance.


    I've been as guilty of this as anyone when predicting future political circumstances, but the use of 'surely' seems significant and potentially misguided. Perhaps the economic dogma is flawed, perhaps it will disintegrate, but there is no guarantee of such a thing occurring, particularly when opponents of the last government predicted things would be far worse than they are now and were wrong, even if deep problems may well remain.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    notme said:

    handandmouse said:

    Why is it that the discussion on this site is so at odds with the economic reality?
    http://handandmouse.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/the-crumbling-case-for-austerity.html

    Opposing further austerity is not "deficit denial".

    (and yes, I have backed Jeremy Corbyn)

    It's not austerity when you are spending £90 billion a year more than you are earning. That's not austerity, that's profligacy.
    When will we get austerity?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    We are just beginning to see how right the LD's were when they said hey were reining in the Tories from their "worst" ideas.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Curtice interview was interesting. Our system of small samples in a few constituencies for the regular polls look worthless unless they come up with some better weightings.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    OldKingCole said:

    We are just beginning to see how right the LD's were when they said hey were reining in the Tories from their "worst" ideas.

    am I bovvered? No.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2015
    One of the things the exit poll got wrong was putting the Greens on two seats.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Previous thread. The elephant in the room for Labour is how are they going to win all the lost seats in Scotland, the country where they suffered their biggest defeat losing 98% of their seats.
    That Guardian article sums it up with .....what they are not going to do..... Just clueless.
    "Burnham has clarified his position on having a separate Scottish Labour party and said he is opposed to the idea. At one point earlier in the campaign he suggested he was open to the suggestion. Cooper also said she was opposed to the proposal, and Kendall and Mary Creagh suggested having a separate party was not the solution to Labour’s problems in Scotland."

    Labour could be bold and offer electoral reform.
    “Let’s be honest, politics isn’t working. People have lost faith in politicians and politics. And trust is gone. Politics is broken. Its practice, its reputation and its institutions. … This generation has a chance – and a huge responsibility – to change our politics. We must seize it and meet the challenge.” http://www.lcer.org.uk/index.html
    The SNP surge only deprived them of 40 seats in Scotland, but I guess many more in England.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    OldKingCole said:

    We are just beginning to see how right the LD's were when they said hey were reining in the Tories from their "worst" ideas.

    am I bovvered? No.

    Some of are, though, admittedly clutching at straws hoping that inspired leadership of a non-socialist left leaning will party will provide a real alternative.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    One of the things the exit poll got wrong was putting the Greens on two seats.

    Was Bristol West the second seat they were projected to gain?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Good evening, everyone.

    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Mouse.

    FPT: Thanks, Mr. Sandpit.

    F1: pre-race piece will almost certainly be up tomorrow. Just going to check Twitter in case there are any weird penalties.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    notme said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT

    Liz Kendall got booed slightly at a hustings today.

    17:33
    Kendall says socialism is not dead, but it needs to change. We need to be as passionate about wealth creation as about inequality, she says. (There is some very quiet, murmured booing near where I’m sitting when she says this.)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jun/06/labour-leadership-hustings-at-fabian-summer-conference-politics-live

    Utterly shocking. How can they keep getting it wrong time after time. You have to create wealth before you can redistribute. How on earth can you boo someone for saying they are passionate about wealth creation?
    All this from "some very quiet, murmured booing near where I'm sitting"?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,238
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    One of the things the exit poll got wrong was putting the Greens on two seats.

    The
    Was Bristol West the second seat they were projected to gain?
    I think it was more of a case of having a 50% chance in a couple of seats so the model assumed they would win one of them.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2015
    One thing I'd say about PB is that there is right wing = right about about everything, anyone who disagrees = 'wrong', sentiment on this site.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    The_Apocalypse said:

    One thing I'd say about PB is that there is right wing = right about about everything, anyone who disagrees = wrong sentiment on this site.

    the right is always right
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Previous thread. The elephant in the room for Labour is how are they going to win all the lost seats in Scotland, the country where they suffered their biggest defeat losing 98% of their seats.
    That Guardian article sums it up with .....what they are not going to do..... Just clueless.
    "Burnham has clarified his position on having a separate Scottish Labour party and said he is opposed to the idea. At one point earlier in the campaign he suggested he was open to the suggestion. Cooper also said she was opposed to the proposal, and Kendall and Mary Creagh suggested having a separate party was not the solution to Labour’s problems in Scotland."

    I think establishing SLAB as a separate party won't help Labour's recovery in Scotland. However much window dressing to give the impression of a stand alone party, London will still call the shots. A national party with one leader and a MSP leading the Holyrood MSPs is the way to go.

    Should Labour decide to establish SLAB as a party, I can already see the first 2020 Tory poster - Sturgeon and Kezia standing side by side with the Labour leader in their top pocket.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    One thing I'd say about PB is that there is right wing = right about about everything, anyone who disagrees = wrong sentiment on this site.

    the right is always right
    Sounds reasonable

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The_Apocalypse said:

    One thing I'd say about PB is that there is right wing = right about about everything, anyone who disagrees = 'wrong', sentiment on this site.

    People who always think that they know everything are really annoying to those of us who do know everything!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Foxinsox, you are Isaac Asimov, and I claim my free robot.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    foxinsoxuk said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    One thing I'd say about PB is that there is right wing = right about about everything, anyone who disagrees = 'wrong', sentiment on this site.

    People who always think that they know everything are really annoying to those of us who do know everything!
    hear hear. :lol:
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    notme said:

    It's not austerity when you are spending £90 billion a year more than you are earning. That's not austerity, that's profligacy.

    This response, and in particular the use of the word "profligacy" is predicated on the notion that the government running a surplus is necessarily *good", in contrast to running a deficit. This is questionable in principle according to some economists (Steve Keen for one). Even if the underlying principle is correct, in practice forcing the deficit down through policy may be counterproductive if they impact the medium-to-long term growth of the economy. That's without even touching upon the social impact for the worst-off of the deficit-reduction policies...
    Rexel56 said:


    Do you read the stuff you link to? From your link to the Reuters report on The IMF: "The austerity debate has become a hot political topic in countries such as the United Kingdom and Greece as voters protest the pain of budget cuts" Guess the reporter didn't think to Google "UK election result"

    That's a badly-worded sentence you've highlighted in the Reuters article (the statement is obviously true of Greece, but not of the UK) but not really a relevant criticism of my blog post. It doesn't invalidate the main point of the article which is that the views expressed by Ostry et al in the IMF report were that the benefits of reducing debt-to-GDP ratio in the UK (among others) do not outweigh the costs to growth and investment.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    kle4 said:


    Reflective of public perception and political reality instead perhaps? The article you link to comments on the coalition policies and how the Labour leadership candidates, bar Corbyn, are not fighting austerity - therefore, it is safe to say that the two big parties plus at the least the LDs, and therefore many (though not all) of their supporters support some measure of austerity as well. Most people agree with the need to rein in spending, though they disagree on how much, where to rein it in and how quickly to do it. Even if this site were a perfect representative of the public, which obviously it is not, it would follow that most would therefore support a similar position.

    I do take issue with the summary in particular though:

    Summary: In selecting a leader, Labour must look ahead to the next election, which will surely take place after the disintegration of the current flawed economic dogma. The consequence of failure to see beyond 2015 will be irrelevance.


    I've been as guilty of this as anyone when predicting future political circumstances, but the use of 'surely' seems significant and potentially misguided. Perhaps the economic dogma is flawed, perhaps it will disintegrate, but there is no guarantee of such a thing occurring, particularly when opponents of the last government predicted things would be far worse than they are now and were wrong, even if deep problems may well remain.

    It's reflective of public perception and political reality now. My belief, as set out in the post, is that the perception will shift over the coming years. I might have been guilty of a bit of polemical writing with "surely"...

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    The_Apocalypse said:

    One thing I'd say about PB is that there is right wing = right about about everything, anyone who disagrees = 'wrong', sentiment on this site.

    PB Tories are always right, and we're always learning, that's the mantra.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Hard to believe this man was Chief of Staff to IDS, the worst Tory leader of the Opposition ever.

    @montie: @DAaronovitch I would rather Out won the EU referendum than the Tories win next election. Self-government is too big a prize #BetterOffOut
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    edited June 2015
    Bad News

    My thread on AV which was scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed until the following Sunday.

    I feel your pain.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    handandmouse said:

    notme said:

    It's not austerity when you are spending £90 billion a year more than you are earning. That's not austerity, that's profligacy.

    This response, and in particular the use of the word "profligacy" is predicated on the notion that the government running a surplus is necessarily *good", in contrast to running a deficit. This is questionable in principle according to some economists (Steve Keen for one). Even if the underlying principle is correct, in practice forcing the deficit down through policy may be counterproductive if they impact the medium-to-long term growth of the economy. That's without even touching upon the social impact for the worst-off of the deficit-reduction policies...
    Rexel56 said:


    Do you read the stuff you link to? From your link to the Reuters report on The IMF: "The austerity debate has become a hot political topic in countries such as the United Kingdom and Greece as voters protest the pain of budget cuts" Guess the reporter didn't think to Google "UK election result"

    That's a badly-worded sentence you've highlighted in the Reuters article (the statement is obviously true of Greece, but not of the UK) but not really a relevant criticism of my blog post. It doesn't invalidate the main point of the article which is that the views expressed by Ostry et al in the IMF report were that the benefits of reducing debt-to-GDP ratio in the UK (among others) do not outweigh the costs to growth and investment.
    Advising George Osborne how to manage his own recovery is a bit like telling Shakespeare how to improve Hamlet. Anyway, the IMF forfeited any claims to be taken seriously with their 'playing with fire' utterances - this century's equivalent to the 365 economists.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Eagles, are you questioning the wisdom of One True Voice? Heretic!

    Why's your AV thread delayed? And does it include a reference to AV leading to depression, loneliness and Ed Miliband?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    foxinsoxuk said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    One thing I'd say about PB is that there is right wing = right about about everything, anyone who disagrees = 'wrong', sentiment on this site.

    People who always think that they know everything are really annoying to those of us who do know everything!
    Agreed :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, are you questioning the wisdom of One True Voice? Heretic!

    Why's your AV thread delayed? And does it include a reference to AV leading to depression, loneliness and Ed Miliband?

    I'm not happy with it, I've been reviewing it, and it needs a bit more work on it.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    handandmouse said:

    notme said:

    It's not austerity when you are spending £90 billion a year more than you are earning. That's not austerity, that's profligacy.

    This response, and in particular the use of the word "profligacy" is predicated on the notion that the government running a surplus is necessarily *good", in contrast to running a deficit. This is questionable in principle according to some economists (Steve Keen for one). Even if the underlying principle is correct, in practice forcing the deficit down through policy may be counterproductive if they impact the medium-to-long term growth of the economy. That's without even touching upon the social impact for the worst-off of the deficit-reduction policies...
    Rexel56 said:


    Do you read the stuff you link to? From your link to the Reuters report on The IMF: "The austerity debate has become a hot political topic in countries such as the United Kingdom and Greece as voters protest the pain of budget cuts" Guess the reporter didn't think to Google "UK election result"

    That's a badly-worded sentence you've highlighted in the Reuters article (the statement is obviously true of Greece, but not of the UK) but not really a relevant criticism of my blog post. It doesn't invalidate the main point of the article which is that the views expressed by Ostry et al in the IMF report were that the benefits of reducing debt-to-GDP ratio in the UK (among others) do not outweigh the costs to growth and investment.
    But of all the 'austerity' we have had, we havent managed to get public spending to anywhere like what is was as percent of GDP in 2007.

    Government spending this year is 44 percent of gdp. In pre austerity Britain, the peak of new labour largesse it was 41%.

    The austerity is the reigning back from the turning on of the spending taps pushing up expenditure to 47% in 2009/10.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Eagles, no worries. It's not like the schedule's carved in stone.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    edited June 2015
    Cheers Morris (I'm an occasional poster, mostly lurker!)

    From a betting point of view, I think the odds against Corbyn are too long and have backed heavily. Yes there's a chance he won't get the nominations required but I think there's a decent likelihood he will: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/will-jeremy-corbyn-make-ballot

    If he does it should be borne in mind that it's one member one vote, and also that supporters can sign up to vote without having to be full members.

    There's already been considerable grassroots support, with over 10,000 likes for Jeremy Corbyn For Leader on Facebook after just three days. If he does get on the ballot and participate in debates as a genuine man of principle against 2 New Labour and 1 red Tory, that could turn into a real surge.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    notme said:

    handandmouse said:

    Why is it that the discussion on this site is so at odds with the economic reality?
    http://handandmouse.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/the-crumbling-case-for-austerity.html

    Opposing further austerity is not "deficit denial".

    (and yes, I have backed Jeremy Corbyn)

    It's not austerity when you are spending £90 billion a year more than you are earning. That's not austerity, that's profligacy.
    When will we get austerity?
    I would suspect when the state is at a much leaner 35%. Once you increase public spending it is extraordinarily hard to reign it back in.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Mouse, np.

    What're Corbyn's odds?

    I'd be surprised if he won. There's a danger in reading too much into Twitter/Facebook/Youtube. It's easy for social media to become an echo chamber.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    Illuminating thread cited by Danny on the Fabian debate, for anyone interested in the Labour leadership. But the Q&A format doesn't give me what I want - a coherent picture of where the candidates want to get to. What I liked about Blair, even when I privately disagreed with him, was that he was always clear that he was trying to take us from A to B: we could debate B (essentially Christian/social democracy) but we had a concrete project to consider. That was completely missing with Brown, admittedly partly because he was swamped by the crisis, and flickered on and off with Miliband (confront vested interests, defend public services) but never really took shape.

    My vote will go to the candidate who offers the most attractive long-term objective: we can argue about tactics after that.

    Welcome to handandmouse!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Mouse, np.

    What're Corbyn's odds?

    I'd be surprised if he won. There's a danger in reading too much into Twitter/Facebook/Youtube. It's easy for social media to become an echo chamber.

    You can still get 100/1 on Jeremy Corbyn being the next Labour leader.

    Jez we can!
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bad News

    My thread on AV which was scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed until the following Sunday.

    I feel your pain.

    One of the downsides of AV is it takes longer to count.....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, are you questioning the wisdom of One True Voice? Heretic!

    Why's your AV thread delayed? And does it include a reference to AV leading to depression, loneliness and Ed Miliband?

    I'm not happy with it, I've been reviewing it, and it needs a bit more work on it.

    This has Chilcott inquiry written all over it. We demand our AV thread, - when do we want it!, we want it etc. etc.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bad News

    My thread on AV which was scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed until the following Sunday.

    I feel your pain.

    Displaced by a Scottish independence thread?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Eagles, don't be silly. When was the last time such a long odds bet came off?

    [For those wondering, the General Election, when Mr. Calum's 125/1 tip on Scottish Labour's devastation came off].

    I still don't think it'll happen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    edited June 2015
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bad News

    My thread on AV which was scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed until the following Sunday.

    I feel your pain.

    Displaced by a Scottish independence thread?
    I have a pre-prepared* EU referendum thread for the afternoon, which may be brought forward

    *I know, I can't do that to the English language.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, don't be silly. When was the last time such a long odds bet came off?

    [For those wondering, the General Election, when Mr. Calum's 125/1 tip on Scottish Labour's devastation came off].

    I still don't think it'll happen.

    Have I ever mentioned that I tipped/retipped Liz Kendall as next Labour leader at 50/1 and 20/1 respectively?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    One of the things the exit poll got wrong was putting the Greens on two seats.

    Was Bristol West the second seat they were projected to gain?
    I think it was Norwich South, where in fact the Green vote went down compared to 2010.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Eagles, you disappoint me with your abuse of English. And you enrage the enormo-haddock.

    Have you hedged your Kendall bets?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bad News

    My thread on AV which was scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed until the following Sunday.

    I feel your pain.

    Displaced by a Scottish independence thread?
    I have a pre-prepared* EU referendum thread for the afternoon, which may be brought forward

    *I know, I can't do that to the English language.
    Goody!

    Its not something that we ever get to discuss otherwise.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you disappoint me with your abuse of English. And you enrage the enormo-haddock.

    Have you hedged your Kendall bets?

    I have hedged mine a bit, so now all green but still best off with Kendall, though not far behind with Cooper.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you disappoint me with your abuse of English. And you enrage the enormo-haddock.

    Have you hedged your Kendall bets?

    I have, and I apologise for abusing the English language, I've been using the most horrendous tautologies recently.

    The First Rule of Tautology Club is The First Rule of Tautology Club
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    I've been meaning to offer up a guest thread on the topic of "Procrastination", but I keep putting it off.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Disraeli, you're a novice compared to me.

    I have not even begun to procrastinate.

    Mr. Eagles, given your abuse of history, at least you're consistent across subjects.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    edited June 2015
    F1: Vettel has a 5 place grid penalty, will start 19th.

    Edited extra bit: or possibly 18th. Seems to be some confusion.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @kle4 Re Supergirl, it's terrible. It took two attempts to watch it and I won't try again.

    The best bit of getting into the wild 6 months early, is that the network has a chance to start from scratch with all the casting and script!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    handandmouse said:

    Cheers Morris (I'm an occasional poster, mostly lurker!)

    From a betting point of view, I think the odds against Corbyn are too long and have backed heavily. Yes there's a chance he won't get the nominations required but I think there's a decent likelihood he will: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/will-jeremy-corbyn-make-ballot

    If he does it should be borne in mind that it's one member one vote, and also that supporters can sign up to vote without having to be full members.

    There's already been considerable grassroots support, with over 10,000 likes for Jeremy Corbyn For Leader on Facebook after just three days. If he does get on the ballot and participate in debates as a genuine man of principle against 2 New Labour and 1 red Tory, that could turn into a real surge.

    A Corbyn victory would require another Edstone for the Labour Party.

    This time, requiring the stonemason to inscribe just two words: In Memorium
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Miss Plato, saw the (long) trailer. Looked bloody awful. Twitter reckoned it was misleading and the pilot was actually quite good.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    I just wrote a more in depth response but the site seems to have eaten it (perhaps because it had two links in it?)

    I'm a little baffled by Stark_Dawning's comparison of George Osborne to Shakespeare. Obviously we can only deal in counterfactuals (we can't re-run the past five years with a different chancellor). However, our recovery has not been spectacular. Our GDP per capita has not improved since the 2007/08 financial crisis. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11159277/What-does-GDP-really-tell-us-about-economic-growth.html.

    Broadly, my view is we should have been focusing much more on growth as opposed to reducing the deficit.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    handandmouse said:

    notme said:

    It's not austerity when you are spending £90 billion a year more than you are earning. That's not austerity, that's profligacy.

    This response, and in particular the use of the word "profligacy" is predicated on the notion that the government running a surplus is necessarily *good", in contrast to running a deficit. This is questionable in principle according to some economists (Steve Keen for one). Even if the underlying principle is correct, in practice forcing the deficit down through policy may be counterproductive if they impact the medium-to-long term growth of the economy. That's without even touching upon the social impact for the worst-off of the deficit-reduction policies...
    Rexel56 said:


    Do you read the stuff you link to? From your link to the Reuters report on The IMF: "The austerity debate has become a hot political topic in countries such as the United Kingdom and Greece as voters protest the pain of budget cuts" Guess the reporter didn't think to Google "UK election result"

    That's a badly-worded sentence you've highlighted in the Reuters article (the statement is obviously true of Greece, but not of the UK) but not really a relevant criticism of my blog post. It doesn't invalidate the main point of the article which is that the views expressed by Ostry et al in the IMF report were that the benefits of reducing debt-to-GDP ratio in the UK (among others) do not outweigh the costs to growth and investment.
    The report by Ostry et al expresses that countries in which public debt has stopped growing, and where there is plenty of headroom below the level at which debt damages the economy, then it may be OK not to pay off debt but to let it decline as a % of GDP... In the UK debt is still growing and, on their own analysis the UK is a country close to the danger zone for debt levels... So I'm afraid your use of their opinion to challenge the modest austerity in the UK is somewhat flawed.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    handandmouse said:

    Why is it that the discussion on this site is so at odds with the economic reality?
    http://handandmouse.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/the-crumbling-case-for-austerity.html

    Opposing further austerity is not "deficit denial".

    (and yes, I have backed Jeremy Corbyn)

    Good for you. I'm voting Corbyn with Burnham as my second preference.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Listened to the podcast. I wonder when the inquiry will be completed.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Advising George Osborne how to manage his own recovery is a bit like telling Shakespeare how to improve Hamlet. Anyway, the IMF forfeited any claims to be taken seriously with their 'playing with fire' utterances - this century's equivalent to the 365 economists.

    George Osborne as Shakespeare! I've heard some things in my time... I'm guessing I'm trying to convert the faithful here, but for a heretical perspective take a look at these two short articles by Oxford econ professor Simon Wren-Lewis... 1) http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/mediamacro-myth-6-2013-recovery.html 2) http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/how-good-has-uk-recovery-been.html
    notme said:

    But of all the 'austerity' we have had, we havent managed to get public spending to anywhere like what is was as percent of GDP in 2007.
    Government spending this year is 44 percent of gdp. In pre austerity Britain, the peak of new labour largesse it was 41%.
    The austerity is the reigning back from the turning on of the spending taps pushing up expenditure to 47% in 2009/10.

    Stating the obvious I know, but the "spending taps" were turned on in the context of the financial crisis and subsequent recession! Perhaps it would make more sense to focus on GDP growth rather than reducing public spending further...?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The casting is awful - she has nothing about her. The character acts like a cheerleader with no inner strength, the Tribune editor is a cartoonish mean woman without any panache, and the whole thing reeks of crowbarred in feminism.

    That Jimmy Olsen is now a hunky 6ft black dude just made my eyes roll. It's like someone took Superman and left the good bits out.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, saw the (long) trailer. Looked bloody awful. Twitter reckoned it was misleading and the pilot was actually quite good.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    NickPalmer said:

    Illuminating thread cited by Danny on the Fabian debate, for anyone interested in the Labour leadership. But the Q&A format doesn't give me what I want - a coherent picture of where the candidates want to get to. What I liked about Blair, even when I privately disagreed with him, was that he was always clear that he was trying to take us from A to B: we could debate B (essentially Christian/social democracy) but we had a concrete project to consider. That was completely missing with Brown, admittedly partly because he was swamped by the crisis, and flickered on and off with Miliband (confront vested interests, defend public services) but never really took shape.

    My vote will go to the candidate who offers the most attractive long-term objective: we can argue about tactics after that.

    It gives me a rather perverse pleasure to know that my vote in the Labour leadership contest counts equally with yours.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Miss Plato, yeah, that was my view on the trailer. But it's worth mentioning trailers can often be bloody awful and even misleading.

    The editor's elevator/lift line was laid on far too thick [to the extent I still remember it a week or two after seeing the trailer].
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I can't believe I passed on backing Corbyn at 900/1 after I heard he had put himself up for the leadership election.

    I am dumber than a bag of rocks
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2015
    handandmouse said:

    Perhaps it would make more sense to focus on GDP growth rather than reducing public spending further...?

    Considering that the UK under Osborne has the fastest GDP growth of major economies in the developed world just how much more growth do you think we should have?

    Talk about hubris! Magical growth above and beyond what is achievable is not an alternative to reigning in excessive spending.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    handandmouse said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Advising George Osborne how to manage his own recovery is a bit like telling Shakespeare how to improve Hamlet. Anyway, the IMF forfeited any claims to be taken seriously with their 'playing with fire' utterances - this century's equivalent to the 365 economists.

    George Osborne as Shakespeare! I've heard some things in my time... I'm guessing I'm trying to convert the faithful here, but for a heretical perspective take a look at these two short articles by Oxford econ professor Simon Wren-Lewis... 1) http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/mediamacro-myth-6-2013-recovery.html 2) http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/how-good-has-uk-recovery-been.html
    notme said:

    But of all the 'austerity' we have had, we havent managed to get public spending to anywhere like what is was as percent of GDP in 2007.
    Government spending this year is 44 percent of gdp. In pre austerity Britain, the peak of new labour largesse it was 41%.
    The austerity is the reigning back from the turning on of the spending taps pushing up expenditure to 47% in 2009/10.

    Stating the obvious I know, but the "spending taps" were turned on in the context of the financial crisis and subsequent recession! Perhaps it would make more sense to focus on GDP growth rather than reducing public spending further...?

    You talk about not being concerned about the deficit. If we were talking pre recession £50 billion then yes, it could be dismissed. But you cannot dismiss a 10% deficit at £156 billion. You can only cover that for a very short period of time, then you have to start cutting your cloth. You cant just stick your fingers in your ears and hope for the best. This is possibly the most keynsian government in peace time history, but a 10% deficit just isnt enough for you.

    You have to broadly balance your income with your expenditure. Running small deficits isnt necessarily a bad thing, as economic growth and inflation can shrink them away. But not the sheer scale of what we saw in 2010. Three years after the crash. Here we are seven years after the crash and its hard as hell to get us off the debt.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The pilot is 60 mins of my life I'll never get back. That I lost interest and/or cringed throughout made it a real slog to get to the end. I honestly can't think of a single redeeming feature.

    I'm trying to watch Sense8 on Netflix now - so far that's a gay pride travelogue stuffed down your throat masquerading as some global telepathy drama. Let's see if it manages to find some other plot lines... It's very slow going too, but I'll give it to 5 shows before binning it as the advertised premise is intriguing.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, yeah, that was my view on the trailer. But it's worth mentioning trailers can often be bloody awful and even misleading.

    The editor's elevator/lift line was laid on far too thick [to the extent I still remember it a week or two after seeing the trailer].

  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Philip_Thompson said:

    handandmouse said:

    Perhaps it would make more sense to focus on GDP growth rather than reducing public spending further...?

    Considering that the UK under Osborne has the fastest GDP growth of major economies in the developed world just how much more growth do you think we should have?

    Talk about hubris! Magical growth above and beyond what is achievable is not an alternative to reigning in excessive spending.
    handandmouse joins a long list of advocates on pb for what is known as BenMonomics, named in 2013 after BenM its most consistent proponent:

    If growth is below trend the government increases spending because it must
    If growth is above trend the government increases spending because it can

    We are currently in a phase of the latter.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Alistair said:

    I can't believe I passed on backing Corbyn at 900/1 after I heard he had put himself up for the leadership election.

    I am dumber than a bag of rocks


    No way is Corbyn going to win.

    No way is the Labour party that stupid.

    No way.

    No, wait, are they?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    edited June 2015
    Miss Plato, I think I saw that Sense8 advertised but only caught a smidgen.

    Not a fan of a political agenda leading the way when it comes to writing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Hopkins, they voted for Ed Miliband, a man whose campaign included the slogan "Ed speaks human."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    MarkHopkins said:

    Alistair said:

    I can't believe I passed on backing Corbyn at 900/1 after I heard he had put himself up for the leadership election.

    I am dumber than a bag of rocks


    No way is Corbyn going to win.

    No way is the Labour party that stupid.

    No way.

    No, wait, are they?

    The Tories chose IDS as leader over the second most popular politician in the country.

    Political activists can be bloody stupid at times.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Alistair said:

    I can't believe I passed on backing Corbyn at 900/1 after I heard he had put himself up for the leadership election.

    I am dumber than a bag of rocks

    If Labour were to select Jeremy Corbyn,, it really would be a case of Into the Valley of Death Rode the Labour Party.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    GeoffM said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Illuminating thread cited by Danny on the Fabian debate, for anyone interested in the Labour leadership. But the Q&A format doesn't give me what I want - a coherent picture of where the candidates want to get to. What I liked about Blair, even when I privately disagreed with him, was that he was always clear that he was trying to take us from A to B: we could debate B (essentially Christian/social democracy) but we had a concrete project to consider. That was completely missing with Brown, admittedly partly because he was swamped by the crisis, and flickered on and off with Miliband (confront vested interests, defend public services) but never really took shape.

    My vote will go to the candidate who offers the most attractive long-term objective: we can argue about tactics after that.

    It gives me a rather perverse pleasure to know that my vote in the Labour leadership contest counts equally with yours.
    Thank you for your £3 donation, comrade.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    I'm going out now, rather spending my entire Saturday evening at the keyboard, but I'll respond to the comments since my previous response in a follow-up blog post.

  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, I think I saw that Sense8 advertised but only caught a smidgen.

    Not a fan of a political agenda leading the way when it comes to writing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Hopkins, they voted for Ed Miliband, a man whose campaign included the slogan "Ed speaks human."

    Watching sense8 right now. Why all the excessive and in your face homosexuality? It seems relentless and unnecessary. I suppose they are trying to reinforce how the feel the world should be. It just goes on and on.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    I can't believe I passed on backing Corbyn at 900/1 after I heard he had put himself up for the leadership election.

    I am dumber than a bag of rocks

    If Labour were to select Jeremy Corbyn,, it really would be a case of Into the Valley of Death Rode the Labour Party.
    Corbyn is currently priced at 120/1, that would have been an epic trading bet.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I just read a review on IMDb and apparently one of the brothers who wrote it has recently had a sex change op.

    I think that explains a lot of it... I'm on E3 now.
    notme said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, I think I saw that Sense8 advertised but only caught a smidgen.

    Not a fan of a political agenda leading the way when it comes to writing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Hopkins, they voted for Ed Miliband, a man whose campaign included the slogan "Ed speaks human."

    Watching sense8 right now. Why all the excessive and in your face homosexuality? It seems relentless and unnecessary. I suppose they are trying to reinforce how the feel the world should be. It just goes on and on.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    This could be an exercise in similes. When I heard the exit poll I was ecstatic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Notme, being preached at isn't a nice feeling.

    Anyway, I'm off for the night.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hard to believe this man was Chief of Staff to IDS, the worst Tory leader of the Opposition ever.

    @montie: @DAaronovitch I would rather Out won the EU referendum than the Tories win next election. Self-government is too big a prize #BetterOffOut

    An admirable sentiment.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    I can't believe I passed on backing Corbyn at 900/1 after I heard he had put himself up for the leadership election.

    I am dumber than a bag of rocks

    If Labour were to select Jeremy Corbyn,, it really would be a case of Into the Valley of Death Rode the Labour Party.
    I don't think so. The Light Brigade took their objective. Corbyns Labour would be more like the dervishes charge at Omdurman.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hard to believe this man was Chief of Staff to IDS, the worst Tory leader of the Opposition ever.

    @montie: @DAaronovitch I would rather Out won the EU referendum than the Tories win next election. Self-government is too big a prize #BetterOffOut

    Something tells me that Cameron will savour his referendum victory even more than winning a majority.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    I can't believe I passed on backing Corbyn at 900/1 after I heard he had put himself up for the leadership election.

    I am dumber than a bag of rocks

    If Labour were to select Jeremy Corbyn,, it really would be a case of Into the Valley of Death Rode the Labour Party.
    I don't think so. The Light Brigade took their objective. Corbyns Labour would be more like the dervishes charge at Omdurman.
    Or the combined forces of G'Gugvuntt and Vl'hurg attacking Earth. - An unfortunate outcome.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    NickPalmer said:

    GeoffM said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Illuminating thread cited by Danny on the Fabian debate, for anyone interested in the Labour leadership. But the Q&A format doesn't give me what I want - a coherent picture of where the candidates want to get to. What I liked about Blair, even when I privately disagreed with him, was that he was always clear that he was trying to take us from A to B: we could debate B (essentially Christian/social democracy) but we had a concrete project to consider. That was completely missing with Brown, admittedly partly because he was swamped by the crisis, and flickered on and off with Miliband (confront vested interests, defend public services) but never really took shape.

    My vote will go to the candidate who offers the most attractive long-term objective: we can argue about tactics after that.

    It gives me a rather perverse pleasure to know that my vote in the Labour leadership contest counts equally with yours.
    Thank you for your £3 donation, comrade.
    My pleasure; spend it wisely.
    Buy John Prescott a pasty for me. If he throws it up I want a refund.
    I've factored the £3 in to my book as a part of my leadership betting outlay.
    It's not altruistic. obviously ... I want a return on this!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Plato said:

    The casting is awful - she has nothing about her. The character acts like a cheerleader with no inner strength, the Tribune editor is a cartoonish mean woman without any panache, and the whole thing reeks of crowbarred in feminism.

    That Jimmy Olsen is now a hunky 6ft black dude just made my eyes roll. It's like someone took Superman and left the good bits out.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, saw the (long) trailer. Looked bloody awful. Twitter reckoned it was misleading and the pilot was actually quite good.

    Unfortunate - though pilots are not always reflective of the final product's quality, even second episodes can be a big improvement as they fix things from feedback (normally just network feedback of course), so I'll probably still watch it at first at least.
    Morris_Dancer said:


    Edited extra bit: Mr. Hopkins, they voted for Ed Miliband, a man whose campaign included the slogan "Ed speaks human."

    Come now, it was an accurate slogan - he definitely spoke a language used by human beings.
    Plato said:

    @kle4 Re Supergirl, it's terrible. It took two attempts to watch it and I won't try again.

    The best bit of getting into the wild 6 months early, is that the network has a chance to start from scratch with all the casting and script!

    As I recall they did something like that with Game of Thrones - certainly there was some major recasting, so a major percentage of it was reshot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Assuming Cameron wins the Referendum, can somehow stave off the Scots having another one, and then steps down on top, I wonder how well his reputation as leader and PM would go. I mean, Blair won 3 elections but his name is poison for probably some time to come among many people, though his post-election activities have contributed to that, but I'm wondering what really major screw ups, or failure to prevent a screw up that would happen soon after he left, might mar what would otherwise be a pretty decent political record at any rate.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited June 2015
    I know from the beeping horns and fireworks outside my house that Barca must have won the Champions League. I don't need to turn the telly on to find out. There's a party going on in the streets!

    Edit: and police sirens now!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2015
    Urgh
    'We don't care if she's 98... she's not dead, so get her cash': MoS exposes tactics of cynical call centre used by Britain's biggest charities including Oxfam, Cancer Research UK and the RSPCA

    Secret filming inside the London call centre company Listen Ltd, which receives millions of pounds from the charities, exposes how:

    An instructor described people who say they are too poor to give as making ‘another excuse’;
    The firm works hand in glove with controversial so-called ‘chuggers’ or street fundraisers, who pass mobile numbers of donors to the call centre – who within minutes plague the same people with calls asking for even more money;
    Managers refused to remove telephone numbers from the charity’s database even when the people called complained of harassment;
    Staff are instructed to always ask for money three times in every call, even if the person says they don’t want to donate or cannot afford it.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3113793/We-don-t-care-s-98-s-not-dead-cash-MoS-exposes-tactics-cynical-call-centre-used-Britain-s-biggest-charities-including-Oxfam-Cancer-Research-UK-RSPCA.html#ixzz3cJpWHrpP
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Alistair said:

    I can't believe I passed on backing Corbyn at 900/1 after I heard he had put himself up for the leadership election.

    I am dumber than a bag of rocks

    Lol you know the drill by now - ANYONE announcing they are running is backable at 900-1 :D... even if it was Tony Blair !

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited June 2015
    Re Preachy entertainment, it's one reason I am a reverse snob when it comes to most award-winning media. When the most crucial thing I'm told about something is that is such an important work because it's speaks of some social issue or is just so philosophical or a deep experience...without much mention if it is actually a good story, or entertaining, I just lose interest. Of course, I may be missing out and such works are all of those things, but they get sold on the messages they try to impart, not on their quality, which may or may not be there.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hard to believe this man was Chief of Staff to IDS, the worst Tory leader of the Opposition ever.

    @montie: @DAaronovitch I would rather Out won the EU referendum than the Tories win next election. Self-government is too big a prize #BetterOffOut


    He probably was the worst Tory leader of the Opposition, but the best Secretary of State for Works and Pensions for 60 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hard to believe this man was Chief of Staff to IDS, the worst Tory leader of the Opposition ever.

    @montie: @DAaronovitch I would rather Out won the EU referendum than the Tories win next election. Self-government is too big a prize #BetterOffOut

    He probably was the worst Tory leader of the Opposition, but the best Secretary of State for Works and Pensions for 60 years.
    It must be a curious feeling to have failed at the top job, but, in some eyes at least, found much greater success in a subordinate position to someone else.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    kle4 said:

    Re Preachy entertainment, it's one reason I am a reverse snob when it comes to most award-winning media. When the most crucial thing I'm told about something is that is such an important work because it's speaks of some social issue or is just so philosophical or a deep experience...without much mention if it is actually a good story, or entertaining, I just lose interest. Of course, I may be missing out and such words are all of those things, but they get sold on the messages they try to impart, not on their quality, which may or may not be there.

    THIS
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hard to believe this man was Chief of Staff to IDS, the worst Tory leader of the Opposition ever.

    @montie: @DAaronovitch I would rather Out won the EU referendum than the Tories win next election. Self-government is too big a prize #BetterOffOut


    He probably was the worst Tory leader of the Opposition, but the best Secretary of State for Works and Pensions for 60 years.
    The nadir of his leadership for me was not the Quiet Man speech but when he told party rebels to unite or die.

    Yes, the former Maastricht rebel who helped damage the party immeasurably was now warning that disunited parties lose elections, my irony meter broke that day.

    I wonder if Ed Miliband can do an IDS and reinvent himself.
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