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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON gain from UKIP the highlight of this week’s local by-
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON gain from UKIP the highlight of this week’s local by-elections
Rothwell on Kettering
Result: Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives: Jelley 771, Sumpter 853 E, Talbot 777 E
Labour: Harris 614, Jones 623, Mills 951 E
United Kingdom Independence Party: Hogston 370
Green Party: Heath 82, Jones 119, Reeves 89
No change from 2011
0
Comments
http://www.whitingandpartners.co.uk/Pages/ImageManager/Locations/welch.jpg
Fen Folk can be a little "interesting"!
Myxomatosis took care of it however.
As an aside, many moons ago myself and my ex-gf went further downriver to Sutton Bridge to see a ship that had split into three parts when they had tried to turn it on an ebb tide - the bow and stern stuck in the mud, and as the water dropped, it broke into three.
Major chaos ensued.
Edit: report here, including pictures:
https://assets.digital.cabinet-office.gov.uk/media/547c712de5274a429000010f/lagik.pdf
I think one between Peterborough and Dog-in-a-Doublet on the Nene is particularly bad.
http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/travel/latest-travel-news/speed-limit-reduced-on-north-bank-in-whittlesey-following-crashes-1-5724271
Dog-in-a-Doublet has to be one of my favourite place names in the UK.
http://www.shetland.gov.uk/elections/documents/CertifiedCopyofElectionPetition.pdf
They are basing it on section 106(1) of the Representation of the People Act 1983:
" 106 - False statements as to candidates.
(1)A person who, or any director of any body or association corporate which—
(a)before or during an election,
(b)for the purpose of affecting the return of any candidate at the election,makes or publishes any false statement of fact in relation to the candidate’s personal character or conduct shall be guilty of an illegal practice, unless he can show that he had reasonable grounds for believing, and did believe, that statement to be true."
They had their chance and blew it.
A narrow win for "In" on the other hand could potentially flip the Tories to also being a party of "Out", which would not be good for UKIP.
A win for "Out" would be a triumph as far as UKIP achieving its goals. But it would almost certainly destroy the party as an electoral force.
There appear to be three grounds for the defence.
1. That the facts are untrue. This seems quite unlikely, he's already admitted what happened and it's well established.
2. That the lie about knowledge does not attempt to affect a reasonable person's view of the personal character of Alistair Carmichael. The defence can try this, I think it would be quite a weak defence.
3. That the Act is not framed in a way that the character of the accused candidate themselves can be grounds for an offence under the Act. That will likely be the core of the defence, from the wording it is unclear (which would normally mean that it would include Carmichael), so they will be relying on persuading the judge that it was not the intention of the Act to apply to the individual themselves. This is not a completely reliable defense.
However it turns out, I am sure it will be a lot of fun. Unless your name is Alistair Carmichael or you are a Liberal Democrat hoping to resurrect a dead party.
But come on: money where your mouth is.
Put your own house in order before focusing on others.
http://www.ousewashes.info/sluices/denver-sluice.htm
Whilst looking for information on the 1937 floods, I came across the following article in the Spectator by a certain Dorothy L. Sayers:
http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/2nd-april-1937/8/the-fen-floods-fiction-and-fact
And pictures of the 1947 floods:
https://ousewasheslps.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/2014-02-03.pdf
I've been fascinated by these rivers for years. Which is probably a little sad. ;-)
I do not automatically assume the use of the term "man" or "woman" to be sexist. That he's used the same term in relation to a man indicates it is not.
Perhaps the Libs and Labs displaying such levels of faux outrage should review the election campaign that has just been run and reflect on how faux outrage has worked for their respective parties.
I should again point out, I am not a member of the SNP.
Many new members have joined since the debacle. I hope that this is a sign of better things to come. Highest membership down this way in many years now.
No judge is going to open that can of worms.
When it gets thrown out, or two years, whichever is earliest?
To those think that UKIP has passed it's peak.
To those think that UKIP is sliding to oblivion.
THINK AGAIN!
UKIP will be reshaping itself, rebuilding itself and learning hard lessons.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/06/05/ed-miliband-is-too-fg-good-for-this-country-says-guy-live-on-bbc-daily-politics_n_7518220.html?icid=maing-grid7|ukt2|dl1|sec3_lnk5&pLid=356449
To those think that UKIP has passed it's peak.
To those think that UKIP is sliding to oblivion.
THINK AGAIN!
UKIP will be reshaping itself, rebuilding itself and learning hard lessons.
Yes like not picking terrible candidates.. The media will pick up on any UKIP candidate who misbehaves or is a crook.. the past history sets it up.
UKIP's bolt is shot GE wise, they may have a say in the referendum, but it wont be decisive IMHO.
UKIP's bolt is shot GE wise, they may have a say in the referendum, but it wont be decisive IMHO.
They did better at selecting candidates this GE than they did at 2010; there was just a load of media attention on them (and rightly so). Their 2015 manifesto was incomparably more professional than the 2010 one as well.
The lessons they really need to learn is to stop being the Farage party. That won't happen though, unless he chooses to go.
The 2020 election will not be about Europe.
In other words the lefts hatred of this country and those bastard voters shing through yet again.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33020420
Greece is going for broke, and the reason is the government will fall if it doesn't.
The only slight chink for the Euro is that the IMF is starting to agree with Syriza. We shall see.
Meanwhile, the rest of us will get on with trying to build up the country we've got.
To those think that UKIP has passed it's peak.
To those think that UKIP is sliding to oblivion.
THINK AGAIN!
UKIP will be reshaping itself, rebuilding itself and learning hard lessons.
Has anybody said that UKIP is sliding to oblivion?
"That new Labour Party. Just a protest vote. They'll never beat the Liberals."
The IMF is not agreeing with SYRIZA/Tsipiras. The IMF is the hardliner here.
So in a way I think you're right - I'm not sure the Out campaign can win it, but I do think the In campaign could lose it.
On topic: I wonder if the kipper dragon may have been partially slain against the Tories - but still potent against Labour unless they get their act together. Just a feeling, not backed up by much polling evidence of course - but something to watch. My feeling is simply that they shine against crap - and Cameron has proved now to most of the doubters that he ain't crap. Two very impressive wins against Labour, the second in very difficult economic circumstances may well help the tories for quite a while.
Danny565 An Out campaign led by Daniel Hannan, Kate Hoey, Frank Field, Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell and Zac Goldsmith would be a formidable one
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33023123
FFs...it wasn't fiendishly difficult. It was extremely straight forward, using very very basic maths. I didn't even have to think how to do this, it was just blatantly obvious. This is just reinforcing all the cry baby nonsense on twitter. My god if Gove had actually really and truly followed through with proper reform to the standard of exams what would the reaction have been?
Compare this one to the question asked in Singapore, now that was a far more challenging question as it required some real problem solving skills and clear well thought out logic. I had to sit for quite a long time to cut through the text, write out clearly the knowns / unknowns and deduce the answer.
http://www.scottishconstitutionalfutures.org/OpinionandAnalysis/ViewBlogPost/tabid/1767/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/5663/Heather-Green-The-Alistair-Carmichael-Election-Petition-the-Leak-the-Lie-and-Legal-Remedies.aspx
As this week's events show Scottish judges are prepared to look at the overall big picture. However you analyse the facts, Carmichaels failure to come clean before the election casts doubt over the result. He can bring this whole sorry affair to an end by giving the electorate a second chance. Otherwise he could be facing a messy trial, which could result in many key players being called into the witness box, and all of this taking place in the run up to Holyrood 2016.
They are being asked to consider if it is an offence under the Representation of the People Act. Which it may be.
Considering that Mundell will be called and have to give testimony under oath, then it may be that the Liberals are willing to sacrifice Carmichael in order to garner Tory votes and (they must hope) be the best placed challenger to the SNP in more seats than they could otherwise expect to be.
I doubt that the Liberals will be willing to offer any help to the Tories given recent events.
"This is the first parliamentary election petition to be brought in Scotland since the colourful if ultimately unsuccessful attempt by poet and defeated Communist candidate Hugh McDiarmid to unseat the Conservative Prime Minister in Grieve v Douglas-Home 1965 S.C. 315."
For what it is worth I think "dear" is on the sexist side "women" certainly isn't. Neither is a "disgrace" as our host put it.
Also Mike if you think Salmond's "offence" whatever that may be is on the same universe as Carmichael's lie then Liberal defeast have robbed you of any semblence of a sense of perspective.
n sweets in the bag.
6 are orange
The rest are yellow therefore (n-6) are yellow.
The probability of picking two orange sweets (when the first one is not replaced) is (6/n)(5/(n-1)).
Multiply that out gives 30/(n^2 - n).
We are told that the probability of that occurrence is 1/3 and asked to prove that n^2 - n - 90 = 0.
Therefore 30/(n^2 - n) = 1/3.
Multiply both sides by 1/3 and by (n^2 - n) gives 90 = n^2 - n.
Simply subtract 90 from each side to provide the solution.
Solve for n can be done by inspection. It's 10.
Doddle.
As an aside, the IMF has the same requirements for reform that the ECB and the EU have
Yes Cameron will probably be gone but there is plenty of talent to replace him with - clearly not the case with Labour. Looking at the north of England Labour did not do well outside the urban strongholds and it looks like they are mistakenly thinking that they lost because they had a crap leader. Their poor result goes much deeper than EdM. Things are trending against them in parts of the north and also in Wales and their success in some parts of London was just that - quite patchy - huge majorities where they are already strong, not many big gain seats beyond that. Apart from Muslims the ethnic vote is trending away from them as well.
I think the obvious disdain they have for many of their white w/c vote will continue to help UKIP, while elsewhere they are under serious threat from the Tories. they could be facing a perfect storm in the next few years. I no longer know, as with the LDs just what their USP is - beyond more spend , more debt and more benefits. Good luck with those.
Where is the evidence? He had 40 per cent women in his Cabinet, Brown finished with 14 per cent, Cameron has a low percentage. He also shaped a women as his successor.
Also he came up against many women opponents over the years Goldie, Alexander, Lamont. He was accused of many things but not once to my recall of sexism.
So is this meant to be a trait he has just developed?
It is all a lot of hooey trumpted up by a MSM which hates Salmond because he is a threat. That some men on this site are daft enough to give it credence speaks volumes.
Real gender politics and discrimination are a great deal more fundamental than this. This rubbish just demeans the issue.
You suspect it'll all end in tears at some point but we've been saying that for four years and it hasn't yet (but then the knowledge of precisely that point is the sort of thing that leads to overconfidence and a failure).
Any white working class voters for whom immigration was the primary concern will already have voted UKIP in 2015, if Burnham, educated at a St Helens comp and a northerner through and through, becomes leader that will be a big change from North London intellectual Ed. Polls also consistently showed Ed Miliband running behind his party, Cameron ran ahead of his
In other words neither Cameron or Salmond has behaved inappropriately.