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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB leadership race: Burnham appears in commanding posi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB leadership race: Burnham appears in commanding position in the betting & MP declarations
Not long now before the formal process for electing Labour’s next leader kicks into place. To appear on the ballot a contender has to have nominations from 35 fellow MPs and, as the chart shows, just Shadow Health Secretary, Andy Burnham, has managed to get more than that number to declare for him.
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But it does seem to me that Burnham and Cooper are the ones who will be most acceptable to the membership. Kendall seems to keen to tell them things that they do not want to hear. Whether they are true or not is probably irrelevant.
Burnham and Kendall will do best in the hustings. Cooper is a very dull speaker and never seems to make the connection to the audience. She would be Ed revisited.
If Kendall does not make it, I would hope to see her in a senior role outside of health and social care. It would be interesting to see her stretch herself.
If Burnham is the answer, then Labour is well and truly....
But at least if it is, we can be sure he won't follow Ed's habit of calling for inquiries into everything. Especially the NHS.
With the caveat that he will if it involves Liverpool ...
He's scum.
Henry told us a while ago that Cooper was the most organised and I agree with Scrapheap that her biggest problem has always been her husband. If he follows through on his apparent intention to seek a job outwith politics I think that will give her a considerable boost. Burnham is just the Tory dream ticket. Labour really should think about that.
It was mentioned this morning that it could take into 2016 for the FIFA Congress to be reconvened - is this to allow time for the shredding machines to work overtime and hard drives to be smashed?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXXj6-VkZt0
‘They abolished the Human Rights Act” sounds like the first sentence of an Aldous Huxley novel. The Conservatives actually campaigned on a manifesto pledge to get rid of human rights and people voted for it. As electoral choices go, it’s not far off choosing to be ruled by a dry, whispering voice taunting you from an antique mirror.
What if David Cameron is an evil genius?
Good news about Blatter's departure. I do wonder if Qatar's now open to doubt.
http://bit.ly/1MjW8Ro
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x11yk0h_burnham-and-hunt-clash-over-hospital-staffing-levels_news
And another good reason for him not to be leader (and I don't mean the affectation with the scarf) http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/01/burnhams-bill-for-hollow-hunt-legal-threat/
Cameron is said to be a lucky general. Can he really be that lucky?
If you want, I can think of comparisons that do work (secretive, excessive powers in the hands of unelected officials, not exactly democratically answerable, etc.), but I think the FIFA scandal - by the time it is fully played out - is going to be the largest corruption scandal ever.
I mean, how many UKIP MEPs ended up doing porridge? Will it be fewer than the number of FIFA executives in the next few years?
It's been interesting to hear the experts talk about the Alton Towers incident yesterday. Apparently it should have been 'impossible' for it to happen, and the 'automated systems' and computers should have prevented it.
As an (ex-)engineer, those sort of phrases are the biggest warning signs you can have.
@ChukaUmunna: I will be leading the Queen's Speech debate on devolution and growth in the House of Commons straight after PMQs today from around 12.30.
Ummm
@ChukaUmunna: I'll be leading the Queen's Speech debate on devolution and growth in the House of Commons after tributes to Charles Kennedy from around 1pm
*Yes, yes, it's one weird European Court or other. For people who aren't anoraks, it falls under the umbrella of interference from Brussels.
The Tories do have form for this.
Throughout, stealth was key to the Conservatives’ success. Not only did they know the public polls were wrong, but Tory insiders now admit they deliberately encouraged Labour to build up the myth that Mr Miliband and his union allies had the superior street campaigning machine.
http://bit.ly/1Ac8eu6
Boris’s score falls by six points and May drops to fourth place.
http://bit.ly/1EUBBN3
If that doesn't get traffic up, then I don't know what will.
However the EU accounts have not be signed off for many a year and part of that is due to corrupt claims by individual countries that are not disallowed by EU officials. So how do you know that bribery is not happening?
.
The issue with Kendall is not that she tears up existing policy, we're up for that: it's that we want to hear something really attractive that she stands for, rather than just the vague "whatever works" thing. Maybe it's coming.
Cooper is witty and clever in private and the candidate with the most obvious gravitas of the four, and is positioning herself well on the centre-left, but needs to open up in public. Longer-standing members who've met her rate her highly; the newer ones are more sceptical.
Burnham is the most-liked of the candidates personally by many members and I think the Tories underestimate him; he's interestingly open-minded and would surprise people with his revisionism (Tories expect it from Kendall but haven't spotted it with him). But I wonder about the gravitas aspect.
In short, it's the contest with the least dug-in views that I can remember in the party. The hustings are going to be widely-watched by members and crucial. Really any of the candidates, including Creagh, could get a decisive breakthrough if they do well. Punters who lay the favourites should do well for some time.
What will Harriet and Angus raise, and does Clegg get to ask a question, if so will be poignant
Andy Burnham's weakness is not his past or his unwillingness to move beyond Milibandism, it's his lack of heft. A leftwing William Hague as Opposition leader, if you like.
The Conservatives are underestimating both him and Yvette Cooper. Both would be capable.
Paradoxically, they are overestimating Liz Kendall, who is raw, barely tested and would struggle to keep Labour's left flank on board.
But most importantly, no one should be odds on yet, so laying the favourite seems clear cut.
Labour would be sensible to steer well clear, those clashes highlighted with Hunty show how limited Burnham is, any of the 3 lady candidates would be a much better choice for Labour, Cooper is solid enough, Kendall certainly looks good, a decent starting point.
@LabourList: "Wanting to make a profit doesn’t make you evil" - Stella Creasy deputy leader hopeful speaks on Labour and business http://t.co/E182nEMFPX
Labour are now going to tear themselves apart trying to separate "good profit" from "bad profit"
@dixon_pete: @LabourList We just need to know the difference between 'profit' and 'profiteering'. The Tories don't.
A better example is the German Maglev crash that killed 23 people. If I recall correctly, they said the automated systems and the entire design itself would prevent a collision between two trains. ISTR there were claims that maglev crashes were impossible.
What all the experts and designers amazingly ignored was that the track would require cleaning and repairs, so a manually-operated maintenance train would be allowed on the tracks. A maintenance train that was invisible to the automated systems unless a switch was flicked, and they relied on human radio messages to state the line was clear.
You can guess what happened next.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lathen_train_collision
A massive problem with computerised systems is the interface between humans and the systems. Edge and corner cases are particularly troublesome. It would not surprise me if this is what happened yesterday.
The wording of this suggests you don't either, mate.
I really need to get some more popcorn.
I understand (I think) an edge case, but what is a corner case please??
* The centre-right still lead in all but one recent poll, by 1-3%, and that's been the position for a very long time.
* 22% of voters say they're unsure, but when pressed 42-34% of these say they're leaning left rather than right. A lot of that is down to the leaders: they rate Thorning (centre-left) as "best PM" by 39% to a mere 10% for her opponent, and she wins 48-5 on "most credible" (he's had expenses issues and is accused of misquoting economic figures).
* Turnout in Denmark is always extremely high (88% last time) so the uncertain voters will probably vote.
Genuinely hard to call because the polls are so static, but the professional commentators seem to think Thorning will edge it.
Arguably, worse than edge cases simply because the combinatorial explosion makes testing hard and/or impractical.
Did not Nick Palmer once say that he thought one of Miliband’s achievements was a united party ? (Apologies if I have misremember this).
I think Kendall would stand a very good chance of breaking the Labour Party in two. This prospect would be a serious concern if she only just reached 35 MPs, less so if she managed 50.
But, I suspect Henry G may well be right and Yvette will come through the middle.
For instance, in chip design they (should!) look at corner cases of temperature and voltage. A chip might work well at the maximum rated temperature, or the maximum rated voltage, but if you have both at once it fails.
This means customers understandably get annoyed. Your tests shows it works according to specification at the highest voltage, but it fails for them in their tests. It turns out that they're driving another characteristic at a maximum.
Can you tell I've spent a little too much of my life sitting around environment and anechoic chambers ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_case
But often the myths are more interesting than the reality (and say much more about us and what we like to believe.....)
Talking about 'myths' the Danes are doing a wonderful demolition job on 'manifest destiny' in 1864.......gripping stuff - even if it is slightly odd recognising some of the actors from Borgen.....
But you can design against foolishness to a certain extent. But that does not make the system 'safe'.
Therefore when you have anything that deals with large sums of money - whether it is sport, banking, politics, business - you need internal systems and rules, and external openness, audits and clarity, to try to deter people from committing fraud. I'd also add equality to that list, as cliques seem to be a significant problem.
Sadly, many of the very largest organisations, and especially international ones, take exactly the opposite view that their dealings need to be kept secret.
Interesting compare & contrast over the responses to Kennedy's death - the current SNP leader delivered a touching and eloquent response - and despite protestations of Nats that 'Unionists are just out to get the SNP', has suffered no criticism for it. Unlike her predecessor. Who must be defended at all costs.
Electing Burnham is a core vote strategy, not a winning one. - Kendall, just might be.
Labour will win when it realises that the interests of women, BME Britons, the WWC, Scotland, Wales and Middle England are actually fairly closely aligned. There is far more that unites us than divides us. It is putting together a coherent and believable set of policies that needs to be the priority for the new leader, not refighting the 2005-2010 parliament. It is why Kendall is the best candidate, with Andy Burnham second. Incidentally these two seem to get on well together, and I can see that Burnham may make a good shadow CoE. He was good as Chief Sec to the Treasury.
Labour are however, not far from government, despite being unpopular. A gain of 35 Conservative seats would be enough to form a left wing coalition.
Cameron won having been forced to/allowed to run a centrist government. I'd suggest that the LibDems lost out and the Tories benefitted because people thought that a Labour/SNP government was likely and they didn't want that.
err.... Nick... really?
Attending journalists shuffle uneasily in their seats, as do one or two members of the parliamentary Labour party. Just one hand goes up.
“Who’s that?” one of the attending activists hisses to their neighbour.
“I think it’s Liz Kendall.”
“Who’s Liz Kendall?”
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/i-didnt-see-any-point-pretending-profile-labour-leadership-candidate-liz-kendall
Rules are helpful, but if they become an end in themselves then they can become counterproductive as people play to the rules rather than the spirit of the legislation.
ISTR a Russian spy in an American agency who got caught because of his spending patterns. Although I might have that confused with a Tom Clancy book ...
Edit: ah, it was Ames:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldrich_Ames
I would like to see a proper left wing candidate standing, just to give us a wider choice. I don't think I really know enough about people like Jarvis to say whether or not they would be any better than those who are standing.
The CIA finally focused on Ames after it realized that despite a salary of only $60,000, Ames had been able to afford:
A $540,000 house in Arlington, Virginia, paid for in cash;[30]
A $50,000 Jaguar automobile;[31]
Home remodeling and redecoration costs of $99,000;[30]
Monthly phone bills exceeding $6,000, mostly calls by Ames's wife to her family in Bogotá, Colombia;
Tailored suits that replaced Ames's former "bargain basement" clothes, conspicuously finer than those of his CIA colleagues; and
Premium credit cards whose minimum monthly payment exceeded his monthly salary.[32]
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldrich_Ames
Kinnock is the first one i remember, he seemed genuine enough, likeable but a bit gaffe-prone. Impressive against Militant which was in theory good for the centre ground vote. Smith annoyed me, seemed too sanctimonious. Blair was just always 100% repulsive to me. So they declined over time in my estimation
yet electorally the reverse was true (or polls-wise at least in Smith's case). So I am Rogerdamus on Labour leaders!
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Where are you tim?
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/03/andy-coulson-cleared-of-perjury-in-scottish-court
Get in line!
Some of us thought Brown would be an improvement on Blair......