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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Apathy and the older voters might be the key for Out winnin

SystemSystem Posts: 12,218
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Apathy and the older voters might be the key for Out winning the referendum

Looking at this month’s Ipsos Mori issues index above, as usual, the  EU isn’t in the top 10 issues, whilst I sympathise, with those that say that Immigration is a proxy for the  EU, when we look at the specific EU tracker below, by Ipsos Mori, the EU isn’t a priority as it has been in the past.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First ..... yet again!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.
  • Turnout is going to be north of 60% in the referendum. For the next two years, it will be the main political story. The comparison with the police and crime commissioner elections is inapt. That said, it appears that some Conservative MPs are planning to vote with the opposition to give children a vote in the referendum. Given that 7 Conservative MPs voted for children voting in the last Parliament (see HC Deb 24 Jan 2013, col. 525), that would be enough to lose the vote in the Commons if the Opposition Parties were unanimously in favour. The Tories will be able to rely on the Ulster Unionists and the Democratic Unionists, but it still looks as if it will be a very close vote.

    Two further points should be noted, about the quote from the Independent article. (1) The referendum will occur on a date appointed by the Secretary of State, not later than 31 December 2017 (clause 1(2)-(3)). Clause 4(2) of the Bill allows the Secretary of State or the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster to make provision combining the referendum with another poll, but not so as to alter the date of the latter. (2) The notion that there must be a minimum period of six months between Royal Assent and the referendum is not the case, as the government has a discretion to allow administrative preparations for the referendum to begin before Royal Assent (see section 101(4) of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2015

    Turnout is going to be north of 60% in the referendum. For the next two years, it will be the main political story.

    Getting voters to turn out is potentially going to be very tough for the "yes" side. Not only do they have epically non-voting demographics, hardly anyone (maybe 5% or 10%) is actually positively enthusiastic about the EU, and even those people will be potentially narked off by something in Cameron's "renegotiation", as will be left-wing voters if he does something on the Social Chapter or whatever.
  • Getting voters to turn out is potentially going to be very tough for the "yes" side. Not only do they have epically non-voting demographics, hardly anyone (maybe 5% or 10%) is actually positively enthusiastic about the EU, and even those people will be potentially narked off by something in Cameron's "renegotiation", as will be left-wing voters if he does something on the Social Chapter or whatever.

    The last general election (outside Scotland) was characterised by an apathetic electorate, yet turnout was still 66.1%. Given the immense amount of media coverage this referendum is bound to attract, there is no reason to think turnout will not in the same range.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    When the referendum campaign gets going, people will realise that the impact of EU membership on UK law and society is extensive in a large number of areas, and that the EU is not a separate / niche / minor issue, somehow separate from other bread-and-butter issues. As in 1975, there will be a very substantial turnout.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    FA Cup final:

    Arsenal 4
    Aston Villa 0

    or, to put it another way:

    Team supported by Prince Harry 4
    Team supported by Prince William 0

    that sounds about right
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    JohnLoony said:

    When the referendum campaign gets going, people will realise that the impact of EU membership on UK law and society is extensive in a large number of areas, and that the EU is not a separate / niche / minor issue, somehow separate from other bread-and-butter issues. As in 1975, there will be a very substantial turnout.

    Turnout in 1975 was 65%. Surrounding general elections were 78.8% (Feb 1974), 72.8% (Oct 1974), 76% (1979) which averages out at 75.9%, so the referendum was over 10% lower.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Yep, it is going to be very close indeed. The Out side will be much more motivated. There are relatively few passionate Europhiles.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited May 2015
    The No side will need a very visible big tent. Being able to portray the No side as UKIP and right wing Tory fellow travellers is probably one of the Yes side's best ways to galvanise its vote. This goes back to the point Richard Tyndall was making yesterday. Fox and Farage will not cut it as the faces of No, but I'm not sure there are many (any?), mainstream, non-marmite centre or left of centre politicians that will campaign with the right - especially when it comes to defining the alternative to EU membership. I guess Boris might if he sees an opportunity, but it would be a huge, career-defining call for him to campaign against Cameron and Osborne. And even Boris is marmite the further north you go.

    Overall, we should expect a mid-point between an EU and a general election - so 45% to 50% is most likely. Of course, the closer it gets to GE levels the better it will be for Yes.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    At least somebody still cares.....the Russians have banned Nick Clegg:

    http://www.yle.fi/tvuutiset/uutiset/upics/liitetiedostot/RUS_Einreiseverbotsliste.pdf
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @SO - Boris would not just be campaigning against Cameron and Osborne - but against London - the most pro-EU part of the UK. Talk about burning bridges!
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    JohnLoony said:

    When the referendum campaign gets going, people will realise that the impact of EU membership on UK law and society is extensive in a large number of areas, and that the EU is not a separate / niche / minor issue, somehow separate from other bread-and-butter issues. As in 1975, there will be a very substantial turnout.

    Turnout in 1975 was 65%. Surrounding general elections were 78.8% (Feb 1974), 72.8% (Oct 1974), 76% (1979) which averages out at 75.9%, so the referendum was over 10% lower.
    So you're agreeing with me then.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Good morning, everyone.

    I agree with Mr. Town that turnout will be decent, and Mr. Observer that No needs some sensible non-rightwingers on board (Frank Field?).

    If Out is seen as the right, it'll lose, because all leftists will vote In [well, almost all] whereas the right is more split.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Harman does something sensible:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-32944886

    She's rejected the break clause idea for the new leader.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    If we left, I doubt if we'd be coming back.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Harman does something sensible:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-32944886

    She's rejected the break clause idea for the new leader.

    Harman would have been the best candidate last time and this time.

    The Daily Mail and other right wing newspapers would have had a go for a while and then the people would have got bored of it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    I think that the EU is going to be the issue of the next couple of years (barring a major economic downturn). I expect turnout to be at least 60% on the day, possibly more if it is combined with some other poll.

    The idea of differential turnout arising from more motivated and generally older No voters seems sensible but I suspect the effect of that will simply be to make the result a little closer than it otherwise would have been, not change it.

    Short of the other EU states basically humiliating Cameron and giving him nothing he can sell resulting in him campaigning for No I really cannot see a No vote.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Harman does something sensible:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-32944886

    She's rejected the break clause idea for the new leader.

    So, if as seems likely, they elect another duffer, they are stuck with that leader till after 2020 GE.. Yup That'll do nicely....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    "All that is necessary for evil to triumph is that good men do nothing!"

    Or something like that. Edmund Burke, IIRC.

    I recall local committees being set up by the European Movement last time, with pro-EU activities. I would hope/expect that to happen again! Looks like they’re doing the same again, although the website doesn’t seem to have been updated very recently. Still refers to Laura Sandys as MP.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JohnLoony said:

    FA Cup final:

    Arsenal 4
    Aston Villa 0

    or, to put it another way:

    Team supported by Prince Harry 4
    Team supported by Prince William 0

    that sounds about right

    Yes. Two pubs played a football match. One of them beat the other 4 - 0.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    How many Premiership football teams come from Tory areas apart from Chelsea ?

    Bournemouth
    Half of Norwich
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    surbiton said:

    How many Premiership football teams come from Tory areas apart from Chelsea ?

    Bournemouth
    Half of Norwich

    Watford.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    edited May 2015
    Mr. Root, if they had a 2018 break clause then they'd have three years of intra-party manoeuvrings as the leader tried to shore up his/her position and potential rivals tried to get themselves in place to take over.

    Labour's problem is they're bloody incompetent and cowardly when it comes to regicide. Having two awful leaders in a row didn't help either.

    Edited extra bit: interesting piece on militant Buddhism here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32929855
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Mr. Root, if they had a 2018 break clause then they'd have three years of intra-party manoeuvrings as the leader tried to shore up his/her position and potential rivals tried to get themselves in place to take over.

    Labour's problem is they're bloody incompetent and cowardly when it comes to regicide. Having two awful leaders in a row didn't help either.

    Edited extra bit: interesting piece on militant Buddhism here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32929855

    Yes I know, I was just being contrary. I cannot see any of the possible leaders outsmarting Dave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    surbiton said:

    How many Premiership football teams come from Tory areas apart from Chelsea ?

    Bournemouth
    Half of Norwich

    The Gower is one of the the 3 Swansea seats.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Root, assuming Cameron's still there in 2020.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    At least somebody still cares.....the Russians have banned Nick Clegg:

    http://www.yle.fi/tvuutiset/uutiset/upics/liitetiedostot/RUS_Einreiseverbotsliste.pdf

    But no doubt still welcoming Farage.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    And Southampton Itchen covers the east of Southampton.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    It is worth remembering that one of the reasons turnout in 1975 was only 65% was because the 2:1 result was so well telegraphed.

    Because this referendum will be so much closer, I think a similar turnout level should be on the cards.

    As an aside, and regarding immigration. My feeling - and this is just a feeling - is that people get much more incensed by low-skilled immigration from the commonwealth (especially from people who don't speak English) than by the pretty Polish girl serving them at Starbucks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. 1000, the vote may be no closer.

    Something which may affect turnout is doubt over the polling. Pollsters will be very keen to get it close [even moreso than usual] and I'd expect them to be more willing to diverge from the average.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    edited May 2015
    What I want to know from the BOO team: can they guarantee my (Portuguese passport wielding) Mother-in-Law will have to leave the country in the event of a "No" win?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    And the nearest league ground to Dudley South would be West Bromwich..... Nearer than Walsall or Wolves.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. Root, if they had a 2018 break clause then they'd have three years of intra-party manoeuvrings as the leader tried to shore up his/her position and potential rivals tried to get themselves in place to take over.

    Labour's problem is they're bloody incompetent and cowardly when it comes to regicide. Having two awful leaders in a row didn't help either.

    On regicide, while the Conservatives and LibDems might be more brutal in defenstrating old leaders, it is hard to see they've been better at electing new ones.

    No, Labour's problem is that saying nothing for the past five years has allowed no new stars to emerge. What has any of the new generation actually achieved? Chuka and Dan Jarvis have vaguely interesting biographies but that's about it. Aside from Stella Creasy on payday loans, where she arguably prompted government action, it is hard to pin anything on any of them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    On Topic

    Funnily enough the older I get the more of an inner I become.

    But the having been very left wing as a teenager I drifted right and even voted LD in my 40s only to revert to type in my 50s and can see by my 60s i can only see me voting for parties to the left of Lab.

    Clearly not following the normal age profile trend.

    I really do need to move to Scotland.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    surbiton said:

    How many Premiership football teams come from Tory areas apart from Chelsea ?

    Bournemouth
    Half of Norwich

    I''m glad that you've noticed the string correlation between the top national level of a corrupt sport and Labour-supporting areas. ;-)

    I *think* the nearest premiership team to me is Arsenal, although Norwich and Leicester must be options as well. That poses another question: where in mainland England and Wales is furthest away from a premiership ground as the crow flies? Initial thoughts have Land's End, but Swansea might qualify for them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Owls, I know speak it in jest, but if Scotland becomes a euphemism for leftwing, that presents Labour with a serious problem, because England becomes a euphemism for rightwing by comparison.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    edited May 2015

    surbiton said:

    How many Premiership football teams come from Tory areas apart from Chelsea ?

    Bournemouth
    Half of Norwich

    I''m glad that you've noticed the string correlation between the top national level of a corrupt sport and Labour-supporting areas. ;-)

    I *think* the nearest premiership team to me is Arsenal, although Norwich and Leicester must be options as well. That poses another question: where in mainland England and Wales is furthest away from a premiership ground as the crow flies? Initial thoughts have Land's End, but Swansea might qualify for them.
    Lots of West Ham supporters in Essex.

    West Coast of Cumbria’s a long way from a Premier League club; Newcastle’s about the nearest I would think, now Burnley have been relegated.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Even in the oldest age group there is only a 9% Out lead, so not decisive. The support for In in the under 40's is pretty clear.

    I would think that a turnout of 60+% is on the cards, at least for this stage of what appears to be another neverendum.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    On Topic

    Funnily enough the older I get the more of an inner I become.

    But the having been very left wing as a teenager I drifted right and even voted LD in my 40s only to revert to type in my 50s and can see by my 60s i can only see me voting for parties to the left of Lab.

    Clearly not following the normal age profile trend.

    I really do need to move to Scotland.

    , I have never wanted to vote Labour or any left wing party, but I would vote LD if it meant keeping Labour out.

    Perhaps that's why I could never live in a town as they are hotbeds for lefties.
  • Those of us who believe in BOO must be careful to always correct our opponenets when they say that we are 'anti-Europe'. We are not---we are very pro-Europe. We are anti the EU, or the govt of Europe. It is the EU that is corrupt, bureacratic and unnecessary.

    You can be anti-football, but it is silly to be anti-football only because FIFA is bent.

    It is obvious that you can love this country, without reference to what you feel about the current govt.

    I used to think the conflation between Europe and the EU was merely careless---now I think it is cynical.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    rcs1000 said:

    What I want to know from the BOO team: can they guarantee my (Portuguese passport wielding) Mother-in-Law will have to leave the country in the event of a "No" win?

    LOL, you're a brave man.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    The low point on turnout is probably the AV referendum, which had 42% on what was seen as a technical matter. The highpoint is probably the GE, at 65%. Both sides will have difficulties in GOTV: Out is strongest among the elderly (very high) and the lowest income groups (very low).

    The joker for referendums in Britain is that they are rare enough that people are tempted to use them to bash the Government of the day, which will help Out. But the structural weight of nearly every major politician that people have heard of recommending In makes it hard to see how Out can win: people will have Cameron+Lab leader+LibDem leader+SNP leader+Plaid leader+the CBI+the TUC vs... Farage... some Tory dissidents and ... the head of JCB diggers. In 1975, people thought it would be close and Out assembled an array of non-politicians to back up Benn and Powell, but it wasn't remotely enough.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721

    surbiton said:

    How many Premiership football teams come from Tory areas apart from Chelsea ?

    Bournemouth
    Half of Norwich

    I''m glad that you've noticed the string correlation between the top national level of a corrupt sport and Labour-supporting areas. ;-)

    I *think* the nearest premiership team to me is Arsenal, although Norwich and Leicester must be options as well. That poses another question: where in mainland England and Wales is furthest away from a premiership ground as the crow flies? Initial thoughts have Land's End, but Swansea might qualify for them.
    One of the most heartening things about modern football is the continuing success story which is FC United; Man U supporters who got fed up with the Glazers etc.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Sean_F said:

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    If we left, I doubt if we'd be coming back.
    It's polling 2:1 "in" among the under 40s. Admittedly they could become more BOO as they get older, but I doubt it - more likely it's a basic world-view thing.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    Yep, just like if Labour keep waiting long enough, they'll eventually get a pensioner cohort to vote for them. Keep dreaming big dreams!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Tokyo, must disagree with the suggestion that EU views are largely set in stone. The EU will continue to degenerate into economic insanity. Some ideological types will always be pro-EU, but as the EU sinks into the mire I'd expect the sceptics to rise.

    Mind you, during the Greek sovereign debt crisis and [inexplicably] the rise of UKIP the Out numbers [according to the polls] have steadily declined. That might be because economic uncertainty makes people wary of change, whereas prosperity would instil greater confidence.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited May 2015
    This could very well finish up like Election 2015 with the pollsters generally calling it wrong due to IN supporters being less inclined to turn out and OUT supporters being much more motivated and crucially the demographic that actually vote's.

    Remember, it's older voters who were lied to and voted YES in 1975... I don't think they'll let themselves be manipulated again...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Cooper on Marr.

    Perfectly acceptable unlike Blair Witch Project.

    Liz Kendall has "swallowed the Tory Manifesto"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Mr. Tokyo, must disagree with the suggestion that EU views are largely set in stone. The EU will continue to degenerate into economic insanity. Some ideological types will always be pro-EU, but as the EU sinks into the mire I'd expect the sceptics to rise.

    Mind you, during the Greek sovereign debt crisis and [inexplicably] the rise of UKIP the Out numbers [according to the polls] have steadily declined. That might be because economic uncertainty makes people wary of change, whereas prosperity would instil greater confidence.

    Not sure about that. It looks as if the very disappointing Q1 figures was something of a blip: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11639916/Confidence-high-as-UK-economy-steps-up-several-gears.html

    If the economy is rattling along at the time of the referendum I suspect the Ins will be arguing don't ruin it. Also if the EZ picks up (with or without Greece) the argument that we are stuck with a millstone will have some effect. At the moment, and subject to revisions, the EZ growth in Q1 exceeded ours. The argument that we are stuck in a declining trading group as the world marches ahead was quite a good one and could lose some force if the EZ picks up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    Mr. Tokyo, must disagree with the suggestion that EU views are largely set in stone. The EU will continue to degenerate into economic insanity. Some ideological types will always be pro-EU, but as the EU sinks into the mire I'd expect the sceptics to rise.

    Mind you, during the Greek sovereign debt crisis and [inexplicably] the rise of UKIP the Out numbers [according to the polls] have steadily declined. That might be because economic uncertainty makes people wary of change, whereas prosperity would instil greater confidence.

    Or because as UKIP have risen, the views of some of its supporters have gained publicity as well. As UKIP are seen as being the party of out, they might act as a drag on support for out.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2015
    maaarsh said:

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    Yep, just like if Labour keep waiting long enough, they'll eventually get a pensioner cohort to vote for them. Keep dreaming big dreams!
    Well, there are some issues where people shift rightwards as they get older and some where they don't. A lot of economic issues are probably in the former category, but social issues tend to be in the latter. For example, gay marriage has been pretty much a generational thing: If you support it at 40, you're still going to support it at 50.

    I'm open to evidence that support for the EU is the former kind not the latter, but I'm guessing the difference is mainly about social attitudes and comfort zones.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    Those of us who believe in BOO must be careful to always correct our opponenets when they say that we are 'anti-Europe'. We are not---we are very pro-Europe. We are anti the EU, or the govt of Europe. It is the EU that is corrupt, bureacratic and unnecessary.

    (snip)

    That's a good point that out supporters should make more of. "We want the best from, and for, Europe. That's not the EU." or somesuch.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    The low point on turnout is probably the AV referendum, which had 42% on what was seen as a technical matter. The highpoint is probably the GE, at 65%. Both sides will have difficulties in GOTV: Out is strongest among the elderly (very high) and the lowest income groups (very low).

    The joker for referendums in Britain is that they are rare enough that people are tempted to use them to bash the Government of the day, which will help Out. But the structural weight of nearly every major politician that people have heard of recommending In makes it hard to see how Out can win: people will have Cameron+Lab leader+LibDem leader+SNP leader+Plaid leader+the CBI+the TUC vs... Farage... some Tory dissidents and ... the head of JCB diggers. In 1975, people thought it would be close and Out assembled an array of non-politicians to back up Benn and Powell, but it wasn't remotely enough.

    Turnout for Scotref was in the 80s.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    surbiton said:

    How many Premiership football teams come from Tory areas apart from Chelsea ?

    Bournemouth
    Half of Norwich

    I''m glad that you've noticed the string correlation between the top national level of a corrupt sport and Labour-supporting areas. ;-)

    I *think* the nearest premiership team to me is Arsenal, although Norwich and Leicester must be options as well. That poses another question: where in mainland England and Wales is furthest away from a premiership ground as the crow flies? Initial thoughts have Land's End, but Swansea might qualify for them.
    One of the most heartening things about modern football is the continuing success story which is FC United; Man U supporters who got fed up with the Glazers etc.
    Went to an FC United home game last season. Awesome set up and atmosphere
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Owls, sounds like Kendall's in touch with the electorate ;)

    Mr. Jessop, indeed. UKIP will frighten off more voters than they entice. I also think Farage's interest is Farage, not an exit [from the EU], which I did say some time ago, long before his hokey-cokey resignation.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited May 2015

    Cooper on Marr.

    Perfectly acceptable unlike Blair Witch Project.

    Perfectly acceptable = Perfectly unelectable? :smiley:
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    I think that the Issues table set out by TSE gives a misleading result.

    Regarding the EU (or Europe as most people see it), apart from getting their Euros for summer holiday, until recently they were mostly ignorant or agnostic about its effects on the UK.

    However to many people's minds, Immigration is part of the Europe problem. However if the question became split into non-EU immigration and EU immigration, the answers would vary according to geographical location.

    Europe also crosses people's awareness on subjects like Human Rights and fishing (more location based).

    So perhaps if all the implications of being part of the EU and the out-options available are simply explained to the electorate, then perhaps the electorate could become more engaged on this matter. However, could we trust HMG and the civil service to put forward, unbiased, all the potential options and implications for both IN and OUT. Somehow I think not - and this conclusion is not party political.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    GIN1138 said:

    Cooper on Marr.

    Perfectly acceptable unlike Blair Witch Project.

    Perfectly acceptable = Perfectly unelectable? :smiley:
    LKWNBPM or LOTO!!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    GIN1138 said:

    Cooper on Marr.

    Perfectly acceptable unlike Blair Witch Project.

    Perfectly acceptable = Perfectly unelectable? :smiley:
    LKWNBPM or LOTO!!
    Dead cert then.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Sean_F said:

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    If we left, I doubt if we'd be coming back.
    It's polling 2:1 "in" among the under 40s. Admittedly they could become more BOO as they get older, but I doubt it - more likely it's a basic world-view thing.
    If we left, I doubt if any government would want to spend years negotiating terms of entry (and I doubt if the EU would either).

    WRT age, the evidence does point to people getting more eurosceptic as they age. The older age cohort who favour leaving were very supportive of EU membership in 1975.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    The low point on turnout is probably the AV referendum, which had 42% on what was seen as a technical matter. The highpoint is probably the GE, at 65%. Both sides will have difficulties in GOTV: Out is strongest among the elderly (very high) and the lowest income groups (very low).

    The joker for referendums in Britain is that they are rare enough that people are tempted to use them to bash the Government of the day, which will help Out. But the structural weight of nearly every major politician that people have heard of recommending In makes it hard to see how Out can win: people will have Cameron+Lab leader+LibDem leader+SNP leader+Plaid leader+the CBI+the TUC vs... Farage... some Tory dissidents and ... the head of JCB diggers. In 1975, people thought it would be close and Out assembled an array of non-politicians to back up Benn and Powell, but it wasn't remotely enough.

    But... Politicians are as popular at the bowl of last night's cold sick on a Sunday morning...

    If you don't mind me saying I remember that sort of certainty (complacency?) about a nailed on Lab victory just a few week's ago...
  • Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cooper on Marr.

    Perfectly acceptable unlike Blair Witch Project.

    Perfectly acceptable = Perfectly unelectable? :smiley:
    LKWNBPM or LOTO!!
    Dead cert then.
    BJTB=Bet against his forecast.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    If we left, I doubt if we'd be coming back.
    It's polling 2:1 "in" among the under 40s. Admittedly they could become more BOO as they get older, but I doubt it - more likely it's a basic world-view thing.
    If we left, I doubt if any government would want to spend years negotiating terms of entry (and I doubt if the EU would either).

    WRT age, the evidence does point to people getting more eurosceptic as they age. The older age cohort who favour leaving were very supportive of EU membership in 1975.
    When the political class lied an scaremongered them to vote IN...

    I think those lie's are going to come back to haunt the politicians this time.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    If we left, I doubt if we'd be coming back.
    It's polling 2:1 "in" among the under 40s. Admittedly they could become more BOO as they get older, but I doubt it - more likely it's a basic world-view thing.
    If we left, I doubt if any government would want to spend years negotiating terms of entry (and I doubt if the EU would either).

    WRT age, the evidence does point to people getting more eurosceptic as they age. The older age cohort who favour leaving were very supportive of EU membership in 1975.
    But remember the 1975 voters were keen on a Common Market and not on political union. They were not aware of the implications for our fishing industry as the Heath and Wilson did not reveal all the truth and implications prior to the Referendum.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Gin, nice idea, but I doubt it. Most of those old enough to remember will either have passed away or not have their minds changed by remembering what happened in 1975.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    edited May 2015

    Even in the oldest age group there is only a 9% Out lead, so not decisive. The support for In in the under 40's is pretty clear.

    I would think that a turnout of 60+% is on the cards, at least for this stage of what appears to be another neverendum.

    Where our entire terms of trade are at stake I would think there would be a good turn out of workers. Where an agreement has been made which offers a security of future as opposed to total uncertainty then I would have thought the vote would be for IN. The vote would of course also enshrine the Pound since it would be built around an agreement which kept us out of ever closer union within the eurozone.
    The best opportunity to win an OUT vote would be to point out we can still trade with the EU if we stay in the EEA. This would of course mean little change for all the foreigner haters who prop up the likes of ukip.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    maaarsh said:

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    Yep, just like if Labour keep waiting long enough, they'll eventually get a pensioner cohort to vote for them. Keep dreaming big dreams!
    Well, there are some issues where people shift rightwards as they get older and some where they don't. A lot of economic issues are probably in the former category, but social issues tend to be in the latter. For example, gay marriage has been pretty much a generational thing: If you support it at 40, you're still going to support it at 50.

    I'm open to evidence that support for the EU is the former kind not the latter, but I'm guessing the difference is mainly about social attitudes and comfort zones.
    Peter Kellner has argued that polling since the 1960s has shown age cohorts shifting to more eurosceptic and anti-immigration viewpoints as they age.

    Were it not so, we would expect to see steadily increasing support for the EU and immigration as older generations are replaced by younger.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    At least somebody still cares.....the Russians have banned Nick Clegg:

    http://www.yle.fi/tvuutiset/uutiset/upics/liitetiedostot/RUS_Einreiseverbotsliste.pdf

    But no doubt still welcoming Farage.
    And any other useful idot that comes along.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Mr. Tokyo, must disagree with the suggestion that EU views are largely set in stone. The EU will continue to degenerate into economic insanity. Some ideological types will always be pro-EU, but as the EU sinks into the mire I'd expect the sceptics to rise.

    Mind you, during the Greek sovereign debt crisis and [inexplicably] the rise of UKIP the Out numbers [according to the polls] have steadily declined. That might be because economic uncertainty makes people wary of change, whereas prosperity would instil greater confidence.

    Well sure, if civilization had broken down across the EU and its citizens were all wandering around eating each other's brains the UK wouldn't rejoin.

    As far as British attitudes go I'd say the main driver is the _British_ economy improving. Recessions feed populist parties, and once the economy recovers they gradually come off the boil. The same thing has happened in the US, where the Tea Party has largely lost its mojo.
  • Lib Dem Chances of a Revival?
    "Lib Dem Runners-Up: Just How Bad Things Are"
    "while the party came fourth nationally, on a constituency level the results were even more sobering, with 54% of Lib Dem candidates coming fourth; and an even more galling 26.5% actually coming fifth; and more sixth places than first places. In numerous cases where the party came fourth or fifth, there were only four or five candidates standing, and so the Lib Dems came bottom of the poll. "
    http://www.socialliberal.net/lib_dem_runners_up_just_how_bad_things_are
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Harman does something sensible:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-32944886

    She's rejected the break clause idea for the new leader.

    So, if as seems likely, they elect another duffer, they are stuck with that leader till after 2020 GE.. Yup That'll do nicely....
    There is no reason not to change a leader they do not like.But if they elect a duffer, why then how can we expect them to do better second time around. Who would be the non duffer candidate from the available pool?
  • "the Lib Dems’ 335 lost deposits in 2015 exceed the all-time record of 303 Liberal lost deposits in 1950, but as Mullaney pointed out, the goalposts have changed: prior to 1983, candidates had to poll under 12.5% to lose a deposit – since then, the figure has been 5%. If the goalpost were still at 12.5%, then 543 Lib Dem candidates would have lost their deposits in 2015. By this yardstick, the party failed to mount a viable challenge in 86% of the constituencies it contested."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Tokyo, those who wish to leave the EU and the Tea Party are not similar.

    The eurozone countries are too diverse to be united under a single interest and exchange rate. Deepening integration will only further entrench the problem, exacerbating the pain for the countries who end up with the shit end of the stick and fostering nationalist movements.

    Whilst it has proved more resilient than I expected (Greece remaining in for so long), the fundamental problem has not been remotely resolved. I expect to outlive the eurozone, and probably the EU as well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    "the Lib Dems’ 335 lost deposits in 2015 exceed the all-time record of 303 Liberal lost deposits in 1950, but as Mullaney pointed out, the goalposts have changed: prior to 1983, candidates had to poll under 12.5% to lose a deposit – since then, the figure has been 5%. If the goalpost were still at 12.5%, then 543 Lib Dem candidates would have lost their deposits in 2015. By this yardstick, the party failed to mount a viable challenge in 86% of the constituencies it contested."

    Those are dreadful numbers.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    edited May 2015

    Mr. Tokyo, must disagree with the suggestion that EU views are largely set in stone. The EU will continue to degenerate into economic insanity. Some ideological types will always be pro-EU, but as the EU sinks into the mire I'd expect the sceptics to rise.

    Mind you, during the Greek sovereign debt crisis and [inexplicably] the rise of UKIP the Out numbers [according to the polls] have steadily declined. That might be because economic uncertainty makes people wary of change, whereas prosperity would instil greater confidence.

    Well sure, if civilization had broken down across the EU and its citizens were all wandering around eating each other's brains the UK wouldn't rejoin.

    As far as British attitudes go I'd say the main driver is the _British_ economy improving. Recessions feed populist parties, and once the economy recovers they gradually come off the boil. The same thing has happened in the US, where the Tea Party has largely lost its mojo.
    Not if there is a disparity between an improving British economy and a stagnatic EU one, with the threat of ever-closer union and Eurozone membership.

    If In win, that's exactly where the more enthusiastic EU supporters will want to head.

    On another point: Nick, what is it about Labour and JCB? Roger hates Bamford with a passion (seemingly for the cardinal sin of being a Conservative donor), and you seemed to dismiss him rather lightly below. Which is odd, as he's done more for the country than either of you have or ever will.

    We should listen to Bamford because he runs exactly the sort of company we need more of in this country, and which, according to the EU feshishists, should be in support of the EU. The fact he is not is important.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2015
    Sean_F said:

    "the Lib Dems’ 335 lost deposits in 2015 exceed the all-time record of 303 Liberal lost deposits in 1950, but as Mullaney pointed out, the goalposts have changed: prior to 1983, candidates had to poll under 12.5% to lose a deposit – since then, the figure has been 5%. If the goalpost were still at 12.5%, then 543 Lib Dem candidates would have lost their deposits in 2015. By this yardstick, the party failed to mount a viable challenge in 86% of the constituencies it contested."

    Those are dreadful numbers.
    Worse?
    "Presently, the party is in first or second place in just 71 constituencies, or 11.3%."
    Boasting about all these thousands of new members may be a comfort but are they where they have chances of winning?
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    Gaijin:

    Europe has the same demographic time-bomb as Nippon: England does not due to its tolerance of immigration (sans UKIP). Why do you think Europe will be in a position to dictate terms in some distant furture (outside of a plethora of parallel-universes)...?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    The No side will need a very visible big tent. Being able to portray the No side as UKIP and right wing Tory fellow travellers is probably one of the Yes side's best ways to galvanise its vote. This goes back to the point Richard Tyndall was making yesterday. Fox and Farage will not cut it as the faces of No, but I'm not sure there are many (any?), mainstream, non-marmite centre or left of centre politicians that will campaign with the right - especially when it comes to defining the alternative to EU membership. I guess Boris might if he sees an opportunity, but it would be a huge, career-defining call for him to campaign against Cameron and Osborne. And even Boris is marmite the further north you go.

    Overall, we should expect a mid-point between an EU and a general election - so 45% to 50% is most likely. Of course, the closer it gets to GE levels the better it will be for Yes.

    So you think that a campaign led by Farage and ukip waving a shroud at what are euphemistically referred to as the WWC will leave everyone else unengaged?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The low point on turnout is probably the AV referendum, which had 42% on what was seen as a technical matter. The highpoint is probably the GE, at 65%. Both sides will have difficulties in GOTV: Out is strongest among the elderly (very high) and the lowest income groups (very low).

    The joker for referendums in Britain is that they are rare enough that people are tempted to use them to bash the Government of the day, which will help Out. But the structural weight of nearly every major politician that people have heard of recommending In makes it hard to see how Out can win: people will have Cameron+Lab leader+LibDem leader+SNP leader+Plaid leader+the CBI+the TUC vs... Farage... some Tory dissidents and ... the head of JCB diggers. In 1975, people thought it would be close and Out assembled an array of non-politicians to back up Benn and Powell, but it wasn't remotely enough.

    One of the many bad aspects of referenda is that they are used to kick mid term governments. The AV referendum was used to kick the LibDems for example.

    The Conservatives will have a lot of BOOers amongst their MPs and often rather unappealing ones. The other parties will be pretty solid for In. The temptation to kick Tory Europhobes and Nigel Farage will be hard to resist.

    I think this factor points to In not Out.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    The low point on turnout is probably the AV referendum, which had 42% on what was seen as a technical matter. The highpoint is probably the GE, at 65%. Both sides will have difficulties in GOTV: Out is strongest among the elderly (very high) and the lowest income groups (very low).

    The joker for referendums in Britain is that they are rare enough that people are tempted to use them to bash the Government of the day, which will help Out. But the structural weight of nearly every major politician that people have heard of recommending In makes it hard to see how Out can win: people will have Cameron+Lab leader+LibDem leader+SNP leader+Plaid leader+the CBI+the TUC vs... Farage... some Tory dissidents and ... the head of JCB diggers. In 1975, people thought it would be close and Out assembled an array of non-politicians to back up Benn and Powell, but it wasn't remotely enough.

    One of the many bad aspects of referenda is that they are used to kick mid term governments. The AV referendum was used to kick the LibDems for example.

    The Conservatives will have a lot of BOOers amongst their MPs and often rather unappealing ones. The other parties will be pretty solid for In. The temptation to kick Tory Europhobes and Nigel Farage will be hard to resist.

    I think this factor points to In not Out.
    For orange book Liberals, Blairites, and leftish Conservatives, undoubtedly. For the rest of the electorate, not so much.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Foxinsox, I think AV was kicked due to its daftness, rather than as a proxy for whacking Lib Dems [perhaps an added bonus for some].

    Also, you're making two separate arguments: stating a referendum can be used to kick a mid-term government and then saying it could be used against BOO Conservatives and UKIP, whereas the 'official' Conservative position is near certain to be In. I agree some on the right [Farage] will put off many, but if people want to kick the Government/Cameron, they'll vote Out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    Mr. Foxinsox, I think AV was kicked due to its daftness, rather than as a proxy for whacking Lib Dems [perhaps an added bonus for some].

    Also, you're making two separate arguments: stating a referendum can be used to kick a mid-term government and then saying it could be used against BOO Conservatives and UKIP, whereas the 'official' Conservative position is near certain to be In. I agree some on the right [Farage] will put off many, but if people want to kick the Government/Cameron, they'll vote Out.

    What's the possibility of the government's official position being neutral, or even out?
  • GIN1138 said:

    The low point on turnout is probably the AV referendum, which had 42% on what was seen as a technical matter. The highpoint is probably the GE, at 65%. Both sides will have difficulties in GOTV: Out is strongest among the elderly (very high) and the lowest income groups (very low).

    The joker for referendums in Britain is that they are rare enough that people are tempted to use them to bash the Government of the day, which will help Out. But the structural weight of nearly every major politician that people have heard of recommending In makes it hard to see how Out can win: people will have Cameron+Lab leader+LibDem leader+SNP leader+Plaid leader+the CBI+the TUC vs... Farage... some Tory dissidents and ... the head of JCB diggers. In 1975, people thought it would be close and Out assembled an array of non-politicians to back up Benn and Powell, but it wasn't remotely enough.

    But... Politicians are as popular at the bowl of last night's cold sick on a Sunday morning...

    If you don't mind me saying I remember that sort of certainty (complacency?) about a nailed on Lab victory just a few week's ago...
    Was that based on their superior ground game, or the 50 million contacts, or the fact that the local Conservatives had given up?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708


    One of the many bad aspects of referenda is that they are used to kick mid term governments. The AV referendum was used to kick the LibDems for example.

    Another reason for the Tories to get this out of the way quickly is that it gives backbench BOOers an incentive to destabilize their own government and make people want to kick it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Jessop, Out requires the EU to effectively have the other 27 heads of government defecate in a bucket and have it delivered to Number Ten.

    I can't believe they'd do that. If they persuaded Cameron to vote Out, they'd also persuade millions of Britons.

    Neutral's more possible. If Cameron allows ministers to campaign for Out then neutral might be the position [but as the Prime Minister and probably most of the Cabinet will be for In then In will still be seen to have the Government's stamp of approval, I think].
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    Lib Dem Chances of a Revival?
    "Lib Dem Runners-Up: Just How Bad Things Are"
    "while the party came fourth nationally, on a constituency level the results were even more sobering, with 54% of Lib Dem candidates coming fourth; and an even more galling 26.5% actually coming fifth; and more sixth places than first places. In numerous cases where the party came fourth or fifth, there were only four or five candidates standing, and so the Lib Dems came bottom of the poll. "
    http://www.socialliberal.net/lib_dem_runners_up_just_how_bad_things_are

    183 seats where the LibDems were fifth or worse.

    They were 7th in two.... Scrapping with Bus-Pass Elvis.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    Cooper on Marr.

    Perfectly acceptable unlike Blair Witch Project.

    Liz Kendall has "swallowed the Tory Manifesto"

    Having just read Bagehot I have some sympathies for Ms Kendall. I would not vote for a socialist so would suggest that the young lady defects to the Lib-Dhimmies.

    In such a situation I am sure that the likes of DrFoxNSox would be happy to vote for such a party. I would also assume that the - post-BrExit - Tory party would be happy to co-operate with their erstwhile allies again.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    If we left, I doubt if we'd be coming back.
    It's polling 2:1 "in" among the under 40s. Admittedly they could become more BOO as they get older, but I doubt it - more likely it's a basic world-view thing.
    If we left, I doubt if any government would want to spend years negotiating terms of entry (and I doubt if the EU would either).

    WRT age, the evidence does point to people getting more eurosceptic as they age. The older age cohort who favour leaving were very supportive of EU membership in 1975.
    If we left we would have to spend years negotiating the terms of leaving and the terms of a new trade agreement and have a referendum on that or them. We would get all sorts of objections from all sorts of numpties about just what the trade deals should be and have referendums on those. Who is to say all the outers are going to agree with what out means?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Financier said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This is obviously right. Low turnout could easily win this for "out".

    The demographics also point to the obvious strategy for other EU countries looking at what to do here: Let the UK leave, develop the EU as you see fit without the pesky Brits trying to hold things up, wait for the old people to die then let them back in on your own terms in 15 or 20 years.

    If we left, I doubt if we'd be coming back.
    It's polling 2:1 "in" among the under 40s. Admittedly they could become more BOO as they get older, but I doubt it - more likely it's a basic world-view thing.
    If we left, I doubt if any government would want to spend years negotiating terms of entry (and I doubt if the EU would either).

    WRT age, the evidence does point to people getting more eurosceptic as they age. The older age cohort who favour leaving were very supportive of EU membership in 1975.
    But remember the 1975 voters were keen on a Common Market and not on political union. They were not aware of the implications for our fishing industry as the Heath and Wilson did not reveal all the truth and implications prior to the Referendum.
    Indeed – the argument for the next EU referendum will not be based on the chimera of a common market place, it will be based on the dangers of an ‘ever closer union’ and the loss of Sovereign independence.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mr. Foxinsox, I think AV was kicked due to its daftness, rather than as a proxy for whacking Lib Dems [perhaps an added bonus for some].

    Also, you're making two separate arguments: stating a referendum can be used to kick a mid-term government and then saying it could be used against BOO Conservatives and UKIP, whereas the 'official' Conservative position is near certain to be In. I agree some on the right [Farage] will put off many, but if people want to kick the Government/Cameron, they'll vote Out.

    What's the possibility of the government's official position being neutral, or even out?
    In the Out camp will be half the Tories and the near entirety of UKIP, plus the odd unrepresentative maverick in other parties.

    The In camp will have a few Tories (though most either grudgingly or agnostic) and the near entirety of other parties in the country.

    Combined with the fact that it was the Tories that wanted the referendum (why have it at all if truly a party of In?), the referendum will be an opportunity to kick the Tories where it hurts, perhaps bringing about a fatal split.

    Suits me!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    GIN1138 said:

    The low point on turnout is probably the AV referendum, which had 42% on what was seen as a technical matter. The highpoint is probably the GE, at 65%. Both sides will have difficulties in GOTV: Out is strongest among the elderly (very high) and the lowest income groups (very low).

    The joker for referendums in Britain is that they are rare enough that people are tempted to use them to bash the Government of the day, which will help Out. But the structural weight of nearly every major politician that people have heard of recommending In makes it hard to see how Out can win: people will have Cameron+Lab leader+LibDem leader+SNP leader+Plaid leader+the CBI+the TUC vs... Farage... some Tory dissidents and ... the head of JCB diggers. In 1975, people thought it would be close and Out assembled an array of non-politicians to back up Benn and Powell, but it wasn't remotely enough.

    But... Politicians are as popular at the bowl of last night's cold sick on a Sunday morning...

    If you don't mind me saying I remember that sort of certainty (complacency?) about a nailed on Lab victory just a few week's ago...
    Was that based on their superior ground game, or the 50 million contacts, or the fact that the local Conservatives had given up?
    The polls....the polls.....

    If the last election taught us anything, it was to believe in your political instincts.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    edited May 2015

    Cooper on Marr.

    Perfectly acceptable unlike Blair Witch Project.

    Liz Kendall has "swallowed the Tory Manifesto"

    Arguably it's one way to get elected :dizzy:

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    On Topic

    Funnily enough the older I get the more of an inner I become.

    But the having been very left wing as a teenager I drifted right and even voted LD in my 40s only to revert to type in my 50s and can see by my 60s i can only see me voting for parties to the left of Lab.

    Clearly not following the normal age profile trend.

    I really do need to move to Scotland.

    Or North Korea.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Foxinsox, at least the Conservatives are keeping their promise on a referendum, unlike Labour's deceit over Lisbon.

    Also, it's not really kicking them to give Cameron a third referendum triumph on the bounce.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    DavidL said:


    ...
    If the economy is rattling along at the time of the referendum I suspect the Ins will be arguing don't ruin it. Also if the EZ picks up (with or without Greece) the argument that we are stuck with a millstone will have some effect. At the moment, and subject to revisions, the EZ growth in Q1 exceeded ours. The argument that we are stuck in a declining trading group as the world marches ahead was quite a good one and could lose some force if the EZ picks up.

    Ok,

    You are both Scottish and a lawyer: Do not emphasise your ignorance. The UK has - historically - been linked to the US economic-cycle and not that of the EU. We enter earlier and recover sooner: 2015 should be a slow-down (if you follow a seven-year cycle). The fact that we are doing quite well is due to the idoicy of your fellow country; one Gormless McBruin; over-inflating things prior to 2008.

    :STFU:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Apathy may be key, but paradoxically I think turnout could be pretty decent. The thing is that not many people put the EU as a key issue for them, so as the header states the certain to votes will be mostly definitely for Out, but those who might be swayed from the vast apathetic masses will tilt more heavily toward not liking the EU than liking it, because very few people like it. As such, those that can be convinced to vote may lean more Out than In as well. I put myself in that category, as I have reached the point where unless Cameron wins some very good substantive concessions - which I regard as a near impossibility - then I will vote Out as I am so sick and tired of the EU, the direction of travel and the contempt for anyone not on board with that, that I don't much care now if it may well be a mistake to leave.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    Mr. Jessop, Out requires the EU to effectively have the other 27 heads of government defecate in a bucket and have it delivered to Number Ten.

    I can't believe they'd do that. If they persuaded Cameron to vote Out, they'd also persuade millions of Britons.

    Neutral's more possible. If Cameron allows ministers to campaign for Out then neutral might be the position [but as the Prime Minister and probably most of the Cabinet will be for In then In will still be seen to have the Government's stamp of approval, I think].

    Off the top of my head, a neutral position for the Conservatives:

    Pros:
    *) Will allow Conservatives to debate their true views.
    *) Will make Labour + SNP 'own' the in campaign, which may cause them problems.
    *) Might make the party less likely to fracture.
    *) Might be seen as honest (politicians giving their true, unwhipped, views).

    Cons:
    *) Will be painted as weakness (too split to have a position)
    *) May be dishonest, at least from Cameron's POV.
    *) May (or may not) lead to more arguments within the party.
    *) It may seem weak for the ruling party not to have an official position on such an important topic.
    *) it may be hard for the government to be seen as genuinely neutral.

    Personally, I'd like to see them take a neutral position, but I doubt it will happen.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Cooper on Marr.

    Perfectly acceptable unlike Blair Witch Project.

    Liz Kendall has "swallowed the Tory Manifesto"

    Having just read Bagehot I have some sympathies for Ms Kendall. I would not vote for a socialist so would suggest that the young lady defects to the Lib-Dhimmies.

    In such a situation I am sure that the likes of DrFoxNSox would be happy to vote for such a party. I would also assume that the - post-BrExit - Tory party would be happy to co-operate with their erstwhile allies again.
    Liz Kendall's parents are LibDems, her mother was even a councillor. Her politics are not very different (there is considerable overlap with centrists of both Tories and Labour), but I think Ms Kendall has ambitions well beyond being a backbench MP in a third party.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Jessop, the problem of an officially Conservative In position is whether ministers will be able to campaign for Out without breaching collective responsibility.
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