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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459
    Neil said:

    The Japan - Italy game cannot get any more ridiculous.

    Japan should have won it just now!
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    And yet they look like losing it in the end - crazy game!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459
    Italy win it surely 4-3!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    4-4 no wait, offside.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I'm glad I didnt go to bed at halftime...

    Wonderful football from Japan.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    edited June 2013
    Neil said:

    I'm glad I didnt go to bed at halftime...

    Wonderful football from Japan.

    I thought you only stayed up this late when

    1) There's an American Presidential Primary debate

    2) To say rude things to me for backing Ireland to beat Australia in the 2011 World Cup.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited June 2013
    I'm practicing for next year and 2016!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2013
    James Gandolfini has sadly died at the age of 51.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2013
    "Many of the poor children being left behind in schools now are in suburbs, market towns and seaside resorts rather than big cities, England's chief inspector of schools is to say."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-22970674

    Just the places where UKIP is doing well at the moment.

    Any connection, I wonder?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    I fear this will swing tim behind the Mexican government:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/19/cat-stands-election-mexican-city
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited June 2013

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Bobajob said:

    Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    Are you sure the net effect will be billions of savings?

    Yes - in the short, medium and long-term. And it's not a redistribute from high earners to low earners thing. It's redistribute from people with no pension provision to people in public service pension schemes. Exactly the kind of thing that pbers will just love when they find out the details!


    What's your prediction for the Lions match on Saturday?

    Now that the vile cheat Cian Healy is out, I'm cheering for the Lions.
    I like my rugby and I'll follow the tour, but I don't really see the logic of the British Lions - a sort of quasi-international exhibition side. It would be rather odd if the Aussies and Kiwis joined forces and toured here.
    The purpose of the British and Irish Lions is to allow the Irish, Scots and Welsh players to get some experience of playing alongside world class players that the English produce.

    Bobajob said:

    Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    Are you sure the net effect will be billions of savings?

    Yes - in the short, medium and long-term. And it's not a redistribute from high earners to low earners thing. It's redistribute from people with no pension provision to people in public service pension schemes. Exactly the kind of thing that pbers will just love when they find out the details!


    What's your prediction for the Lions match on Saturday?

    Now that the vile cheat Cian Healy is out, I'm cheering for the Lions.
    I like my rugby and I'll follow the tour, but I don't really see the logic of the British Lions - a sort of quasi-international exhibition side. It would be rather odd if the Aussies and Kiwis joined forces and toured here.
    The purpose of the British and Irish Lions is to allow the Irish, Scots and Welsh players to get some experience of playing alongside world class players that the English produce.
    In the last 75 years, only two Englishman have ever been named captain of the Lions. (9 Irish, 5 Welsh, 4 Scots).

    It's basically a nice way of getting English players front row seats to watch rugby, more recently it's a way for them to play on the same pitch as the Welsh players and still have a chance of winning.
    The last winning captain of the Lions was an Englishman of course, who went on to win the World Cup.

    Was also the last English captain to win a Six Nations grand slam. How fast a decade goes by.
    When was the last time Wales did this to the All Blacks ?



    In fact , when is the last time Wales beat the All Blacks ?
    We haven't had the advantage of playing them when they were all sick with Norovirus. (It was an excellent performance by England, depending on how ill the All Blacks were).
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    James Gandolfini has sadly died at the age of 51.

    Sad. The dangers of being "heavy-set"...
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    AndyJS said:

    "Many of the poor children being left behind in schools now are in suburbs, market towns and seaside resorts rather than big cities, England's chief inspector of schools is to say."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-22970674

    Just the places where UKIP is doing well at the moment.

    Any connection, I wonder?

    Given UKIPs greatest success tends to be in eastern coastal counties you might find the following characteristics (a profile if you like) have something to do with it

    i) Direct transport links (rail / ferry) from Europe

    ii) Noticeable European work force and presence.

    iii) Grammar Schools (Kent, Lincolnshire and parts of Essex)

    iv) A historical heritage (e.g. RAF bases, Castles, war defences etc etc) of being on the frontline during Britain's conflict with Europe (Roman Invasion, Norman Conquest, Napoleonic Wars, World War II ~ Battle of Britain, Dunkirk etc etc etc)

    v) Sympathetic demographics (Seaside towns tend to attract retirees whilst the young tend to gravitate to the bright lights of large cities especially in the South East).

    Kent ticks all those boxes which probably explains why UKIP did so well there.
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    And they wonder why UK industry lags so far behind Germany:

    UK electricity prices almost twice as expensive as Germany within three years

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10130970/UK-electricity-prices-almost-twice-as-expensive-as-Germany-within-three-years.html

    Posturing is so much more important to the Westminster elite than prosperity
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    And this may be the most significantstory of them all:

    If Bernanke really shakes the tree, half the world may fall out

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100024895/if-bernanke-really-shakes-the-tree-half-the-world-may-fall-out/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2013
    @smithersjones2013

    UKIP winning the most votes in Forest of Dean was the odd one out so-to-speak although it does have some of the characteristics you describe.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    The Cameron -> BoJo > switchers thing here (http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/06/from-stephanshaxper.html) tell us everything except the one important thing.

    Where do these people live? A sub sample on Cameron vs Boris in seats where the Tories are +/- 3,000 votes of winning is all that really matters.

    My gut tells me that Boris as leader will help the Tories run up bigger majorities in safer seats in the south but wouldn't play well in the north and midlands where most of the marginals are. Having the hard data on this with regional sub samples would be interesting.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Carola said:

    'EXCL: Barack Obama called George Osborne 'Jeffrey' by mistake 3 times at the G8 summit - a crushing blow to the Chancellor's ego.' tomnewtondunn

    'Jeffrey'??? Is Cameron Bungle?

    Shurely it's more likely that he called him "Geoffrey", not "Jeffrey"?
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 19th June - CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%, APP -33 - See more at: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/06/20/update-labour-lead-6/#sthash.g850Grwk.dpuf
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Which of these would make the best Prime
    Minister?
    DC: 35 (+5)
    EM: 20 (-3)
    NC: 5(-1)
    DK: 40 (-1)

    If you had to choose, which of the following
    options would be best for Britain?
    A majority Conservative government: 31(+3)
    Con/LD coalition: 8(-1)
    LAB/LD coalition: 12(0)
    Majority Labour: 29(+1)
    DK: 19(-5)
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 19th June - CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%, APP -33 - See more at: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/06/20/update-labour-lead-6/#sthash.g850Grwk.dpuf

    Crossover by Christmas.

    2015 Con Maj Nailed On.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 19th June - CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%, APP -33 - See more at: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/06/20/update-labour-lead-6/#sthash.g850Grwk.dpuf

    Would make best PM:
    Cameron 35 (+5)
    Miliband 20 (-3)

    Only 58% of Labour VI think Miliband would make best PM and 48% of Lab 2010.

    If you had to choose:
    Maj Con: 31 (+3)
    Con/LD: 8 (-1)
    Lab/LD: 12 (-)
    Maj Lab: 29 (+1)

    UKIP voters split 48/17 Maj Con vs Maj Lab
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,402
    Firstly, it is only 1 poll.

    Secondly, it is a Yougov poll.

    Thirdly, 6% behind isn't that great.

    Having said all that it does seem that Labour have strategic difficulties. Having spent 2 years not having any policies they have basically adopted the Coalition policies on spending limits (with a trivial £10bn of capital spending as a supposed difference), education and health.

    This was an interesting article that was linked in the overnight thread: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/06/18/labour-is-still-headed-for-trouble-in-next-week’s-spending-review/

    It points out the problems that Labour are likely to have next week in respect of the spending review. When it is increasingly part of the consensus that austerity will last through the next Parliament as well hard choices would have to be made. Newsnight last night indicated by the middle of the next Parliament 1/3 of all government spending will be on health. The price of ring fencing for all other spending is massive.

    Does Labour have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
This discussion has been closed.