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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on Osborne’s plan for the civil service
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Labour should cut public spending QUICKER than they plan: 34%
Labour should cut public spending SLOWER than they plan: 39%
Labour is too TOUGH on big business and banks: 22%
Labour is too SOFT on big business and banks: 42%
Labour should be more left-wing: 19%
Labour should be more right-wing: 21%
Labour should increase taxes on the rich: 46%
Labour is too tough on investors and wealthy people: 35%
The idea that people thought Miliband was some raving dangerous socialist just isn't borne out by these poll results. The basic competence issues were much more prevalent (as well as welfare and immigration to some extent). And competence in the public mind seems to be different to actual intentions, since people were worried Labour would inadvertently overspend even at the same time they wanted Labour to cut less.
The rise in private sector jobs has more than made up for public sector job losses.
Not only that, private sector jobs are all net contributors to the Treasury, whereas taxpayers' money is used to fund public sector jobs, so the shift also means we're better off as a country.
Also, if you wish to assist the self-employed I enthusiastically recommend this up-and-coming author:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/
Cut those any further and it will backfire. There seems to be an idea that "civil servants" are "pen pushers"....
'The Tory and Labour voteshares were a bit lower, but the gap between them, 7%, was exactly the same as 1992, as was the egg on the face of the pollsters '
Actually the Tory lead over Labour in 1992 was 7.6% . In 2015 it turned out to be 6.6% - despite the Labour collapse in Scotland. Had the Labour lead over the Tories in Scotland remained unchanged the GB Tory lead would have been barely 5%.
An office cleaner employed by the council is classified as a public sector worker. An office cleaner who cleans the council offices that is employed by a staffing agency is a private sector worker.
"The election result has made many students at my university more politically engaged – so I invited them to express themselves through art"
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/may/21/students-angry-general-election-colouring-in
Anybody who has worked in public service as I did for 33 years will know that there is an almost infinite scope for cuts - especially at the management level. Indeed you could almost define many of the administrative jobs as unreal - diversity officer, HR, equality officer, transexual officer ....... the list is endless of people whose jobs exist to fulfil somebody's nonsensical idea.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/21/thatcher-cut-george-osborne-david-cameron-welfare-government
25%. 23%. Who cares. CUT CUT CUT. DESTROY the horrible Labour state. Starve the asylum seekers. Kick the benefit scroungers into the Irish Sea. PUNCH the pathetic bleating social working feminists in the FALLOPIANS, and make sure rapists are protected by ANONYMITY. Ooh, Dave gives Good Governance. He's dryer than Thatch. Lovin' it."
http://bit.ly/1dmYZxj
That means 10-20 years in Opposition regaining their "none of the above" voters...
Where has Vince said this BTW? I didn't think he's been seen or heard from since his 5am defeat shocker.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32832191
What has undermined the left's case in 2015 as much as anything has been the Lazy, emotional, inaccurate hyperbole with with it has attacked the tories.
Toynbee accuses the tories of taking the country back to pre-war, pre welfare state Britain.
I mean FFS a child can see that isn't the case. Just read a few simple facts about pre war Britain.
"It is just possible that disillusionment with the Tories and with the nationalists in England and Scotland will set in so fast and go so deep that, as in the mid-1990s, there could be a pincer movement from the centre and centre left under plausible new leaders. Merely to state the hypothesis suggests, however, how far away it is. But to make it even possible, a lot has to happen, including our two parties deciding whether they are for ever locked in mortal tribal combat or, more sensibly, whether they are potential allies in a wider, progressive purpose of constitutional reform; a liberal approach to civil liberties; anti-nationalist and internationalist; and with a modern fusion of social democracy and market economics."
First they have got to restore their Councillors and Councils, then they can start thinking about regaining some MP's, but we're talking years in terms of the former and a decade or two in terms of the later, IMO.
I would expect 2020 to lift them back into the teen's in terms of MP's if they are lucky, so they will, literally, regain a "few" seats.
@TeleComment: Will Ed Miliband's cheerleaders ever admit they were wrong? @DPJHodges is still waiting for those three easy words... http://t.co/A8gIMBuwej
Obviously better than these people being on the dole queue, or employed by HMG to fill in forms, but the narrowness of our tax base should be of a concern.
Cameron is very proud of taking the lowest earners out of paying tax, but it would be preferable if the lowest earners were paid enough that they could also pay tax and contribute to paying for public services.
It's called VAT...
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ibec-boss-warns-of-irish-exit-from-eu-after-brexit-1.2213938
Infact, the meltdown that the Lib-Dems suffered has been foretold by the opinion polls for a couple of years. The 8% they secured was around where many polls were putting them especially from the European elections.
The polls wee clearly at sea when it came to Lab/Con but in terms of the Lib-Dems, SNP and UKIP they didn't do badly.
The council results had also been implying that the Lib-Dems were heading for oblivion for years.
The fact we all (myself included) refused to discuss what would happen if the Lib-Dems actually polled 8% in a FPTP general election makes us all look silly now but the writing had been on the wall for a long time.
If anyone's got a link, I'd appreciate if
Poor darlings.
I suppose it's possible some of the defeated Lib-Dem MP's might turn up as Tory (or Labour?) members?
Jeremy Browne and Danny Alexander could easily find a place with the Tories for example...
Vince would be far more home with Labour...
You can do various sums about income inequality that show the same total income divided more evenly over a population gives a higher tax take to the treasury (200 people earning minimum wage with 2 people earning a million each vs 2 people earning 500,000 each and the 200 people earning an extra £5000 a year increases overall tax take in scenario 2).
Ed Miliband will be a malignant force in the Labour party as long as he stays. If they fail to recognise this they truly are doomed.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/oct/04/osborne-child-benfit-war-families
IVR?
However, not since China's one-child rule has there been such a penalty for having kids.
And I guarantee that every single comment thread about the Tories has several retards wittering "they only got 24% of the vote!!!" in an orgy of denial and remedial logic (and, given 2005, very poor memory).
Our green policies for example are merely pointlessly offshoring carbon use at the expense of British businesses and people. Turn real - calculate carbon use in terms of the full impact of British activity and decide policy on the basis of how to feasibly (and in real terms) reduce it whilst maintaining energy security and not needlessly harming our economy.
Turn 'real' in international affairs - our various military adventures with Uncle Sam over the years have done more harm than good. We must first and foremost be able to defend our Island from foreign attack. Stop supporting the Saudis (85 executions so far this year) then pretending other Middle East dictators are a pressing problem. Accept that the centre of gravity will inevitably shift from the US to other countries and try to adapt to that situation as other nations are.
http://t.co/pamift2It8
Ed, the gift that refuses to stop giving...
I don;t see those factions reconciling.
@iainmartin1: Beyond parody" "Miliband is said to have emphasised that his party lost due to the failure of millions of notional supporters to turn out."
You could see them picking up a couple of Scottish seats as the SNP subsides back to the 40% level in Scotland, as unionist tactical voting returns (say, East Dumbartonshire, one other).
The LibDems retain their councillor base in Eastleigh, and Eastbourne, and in much of SW London. (The LibDems actually gained seats in both Eastleigh and Eastbourne in the locals this year.) So you could expect these seats to be vulnerable to any LibDem resurgence in 2020.
But a lot is out of the LibDems hands. A by-election in Richmond-upon-Thames caused by a third runway at Heathrow could throw up a surprise result (there is no shortage of LibDem councillors in SW London.) Likewise, the LDs would benefit from either an "Out" vote, or a narrow "In", but would big losers in the event of a comfortable win for "In". Furthermore, the LibDems need UKIP to remain a force. If UKIP is in the teens, it "lowers the bar" for what the LibDems need to get to gain seats.
2012 was the highpoint for local election shares for the LibDems in the last electoral cycle, so 2016 locals will be tough for them (I think they got 16 or 17% last time around). The big question is whether they'll gain decent numbers of councillors in 2017 and 2018, when there are easy "comps" for them.
We'll see... but I'd guess you'll see decent council results for the LDs in '17 and '18, but who knows...
From what we've heard today, Ed and Kendall aren't in the same universe, politically.
Miliband ==> Burnham
Hmmm. Looks good.
What price an SDP comeback!!!
I saw Shirley Williams boarding a train the other day. It's an omen, I tell you, an omen!!