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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given the messages that have been coming out PaddyPower’s 7
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given the messages that have been coming out PaddyPower’s 7/4 2016 EU referendum price looks like a good bet
All the signs are that the new Tory government wants to move fast with the EU referendum. We should get an idea on the timing in the upcoming Queen’s Speech.
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Of course formal negotiations haven't concluded, but the groundwork of knowing what's up for negotiation and what isn't, as well as what your negotiating partner wants is the most important part of any negotiation. That will be known.
Presumably a Grexit might complicate things - possibly hindering an early referendum - who can really tell?. Still those odds sounds good value
"Islamic State (IS) fighters in Syria are said to have seized part of the town next to Palmyra, one of the Middle East's greatest archaeological sites.
Pro-government forces have evacuated local residents and are confronting the militants, Syrian state TV reported.
Activists say IS holds much of north Tadmur after overcoming militias loyal to President Bashar al-Assad."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-32807858
Ex CIA analyst supports Seymour Hersh's account of Bin Laden killing.
That is probably enough acronyms until September when DUABA gets under way.
Only 352 till AICIPM!!!
https://twitter.com/JamesClayton5/status/601091546507833344
http://despair.com/collections/t-shirts/products/vote-whig
There is still areas of fighting where pockets of Assad forces are left but evacuations are going on and Assad forces are broadly working on a relatively orderly withdrawal with a fair slice of the population following. The airbase on the Eastern outskirts still looks to be an area of contention but IS are approaching in increasing numbers.
Things are not going well for Assad on a number of fronts and this is just the latest.
The maps showing areas of IS control has a increasing centre pool straddling Eastern Syria and Western Iraq, much of it admittedly fairly empty space.
Around that, however are a series lines of communication between that centre and smaller pools. If there was a concerted military strategy, those smaller pools and the lines between them are obvious targets. It may look impressive but in effect IS have built themselves a highly landlocked area of major control.
The problem in Iraq is that IS isn't just IS doing the fighting, there are other Sunni elements aligned.
In Syria though IS is much more a foreign legion, it just isn't as indigenous in nature as it is Iraq, and it is very much IS and more importantly the IS Einsatzgruppen disproportionately in Syria. This makes Syria the better place for a stronger military route short term, whilst in Iraq there is a much greater need to integrate a political strategy short term.
For the West though, there lack of taking a firm position 3+ years ago has left them with little leverage in Syria.
Even on your very optimistic notion that half the Conservatives will go against Cameron wanting In and 30% of Labour votes will go against Labour wanting In, you're only getting the Out vote up to 40%. 40-60 isn't close, that's an In lead of 20%.
If less than half the Tory voters go for out then we're looking at sub-40% as the most plausible Out ratio. Any Out share in the 30s definitely isn't a "close vote".
I agree with those downthread who say that some of the preparatory work will already have been done. I'd be surprised if there wasn't a draft Treaty / agreement already drawn up by the FCO while Hague was Foreign Secretary, though until Cameron has had his talks with his opposite numbers, I doubt there'll be anything circulated.
But the agreement still has to be made and while I believe the EU can and will move faster than some expect - this is not some trivial policy matter than can be deferred for years; this is a core Union political challenge that will concentrate minds - it would be pushing it to have it all sorted within ten months. Indeed, I suspect that changing the deadline from 2017 to early 2016 would be resented by foreign governments who may conclude the whole thing's a sham and that the Tories, including Cameron, really want out and are putting up impossible demands to that end.
The fact is that Dave needs both a Yes and to be able to lead a united party afterwards. Neither will be possible if he's tried to fiddle the referendum off differential turnout (which I think would backfire anyway - turnout will be high either way and as I've said, hackles may be raised by that kind of manoeuvre). What he has to get is a decent deal that at least 60% of his party will back at the polls and that most of the rest won't regard as a trick afterwards. To reunite the party beyond the poll will mean the losers have to accept their defeat with, if not good grace then at least as representing a legitimate outcome.
In addition, a successful negotiation and referendum would not be a bad springboard for the Tories in 2020, which might not matter personally to Cameron but he'll want to hand over a decent legacy to his successor.
" We have it now. Only a few pockets of resistance are left. "
I already fear the progress of UKIP in parts of Wales. I could see them making big gains at the Assembly at the expense of Labour if it clashed with the Euro referendum.
http://www.c-span.org/video/?326084-1/senator-rand-paul-rky-nsa-surveillance&live
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/242684-paul-begins-patriot-act-filibuster
Last time he talked for 13 hours in 2013 filibustering the CIA director appointment.
Was ranting about LK earlier though
That's at least two of us - Britain's fastest growing political movement.
I am in no matter what.
I have given it some thought and conclude you used too many letters...
EIC would have sufficed.
DTGIPM
Dave The Great Is PM.
It will be months before we get our act together and the Assembly elections will be on top of us before we know it.
Carwyn is about our only asset at th moment. I hope we see a lot more of him than we did at the GE, where he was very low key
http://bit.ly/1Hv3ano
Yes
Probably cannot be rushed, and today the Germans are saying that our negotiations should be linked to eurozone reform. This puts us into a good position. Plus it's what the euro needs, certainly what it needed in the first place. And it's what I suggested would happen.
If a horse doesn't want to run, it ain't going to run !
The precarious nature of the Conservatives majority should also mean that Labour be ready for an election at any time during this term, even if it is very unlikely.
Senior Labour MP Sadiq Khan has lashed out at Ed Miliband’s defeat to brand Britain’s voters “bastards”.
The close friend of the disastrous former Labour leader tore into the electorate on polling day night as the scale of his party’s defeat emerged.
In an impromptu speech to local Labour Party members in Battersea, south west London, one of the angry attacks Mr Khan made on the public was: “Voters are bastards”.
http://bit.ly/1Pxskpz
To be fair, the Tory party only started electing their leaders in 1965.
Prior to that, they emerged following consultations by the Men In Grey Suits.
Edit: Actually the favourite won the 2003 Tory leadership election, granted, he was the only one who ran.
The experience of Scotland will also make him pause. Suppose that the Out vote was as high as 45% (to pick a figure) and there was other elections shortly after it. We all know how that works out. So the referendum will be after UKIP has not done very well in the locals, not at the time or immediately before. Looks like late 2016 to me.
A shortening price means he's less likely to win, right ?
Lay:
BoJo (wouldn't get to final two & was inept at building bridges the last times he was in the Commons)
May (bland and uninspiring)
Hammond and Fallon (unlikely to run let alone win the members' vote)
Back:
Hunt (a good performer w/experience)
Osbourne (if the recovery continues and his northern powerhouse ideas work he'll be very well placed)
Javid (same reasons as usual)
Halfon (would address the Conservative's image problem & has a genuine ideology of working class conservatism)
Patel (fiery Thatcherite, 'nuff said)
Big gamble.
Hunt had an excellent election campaign and is extremely smooth. Javid is pretty smooth too and funnier. He seems to have Osborne's backing which may well be decisive. It all depends who shines most over the next few years. If I was putting money on it (and I am not because it is just too far away) I would go Javid.
Boris will get a more senior job when he stops being Mayor but he has a long, long way to go to catch up with either of these two.
Hold it on the 18th of June 2016 or the 25th of October 2016
201st Anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo/601st Anniversary of Agincourt.
Seems apt.
If we're talking heir-apparent then you'd have to go back to Eden. Macmillan was probably just about favourite in 1957 but up until Suez turned into a shambles, he'd have been seen as too old to be next leader, when a vacancy wouldn't have been anticipated until 1960 if the Tories lost.
An Eton educated Tory Prime Minister uniting Europe to give the French a damn good thrashing.
We know Cameron likes to leave people in post for a long time, and he's only just appointed a whole bunch of people to replace the Lib Dems, so whose bum is keeping a seat warm for Boris - or will he be left to kick his heels?
I guess I was pretty surprised that Letwin made the Cabinet, and he already has an Osborne favourite to hold hands of whoever is in charge there, but Cabinet Office for Boris?
Any ideas?
IDS was 60 last year. If he does not get a finger out he will be a lot more dispensable once the referendum is out the way and it is no longer necessary to protect the right flank to the same degree.
@Samuelsdale: @maitlis really? Both Scot & AV referendums both won by No campaigns in last parliament.
EDIT: Wait, apparently she was only quoting Salmond, not giving her own opinion.
Labour should put its thinking head on before it is too late. It should have agreed on an experienced interim leader who commands general confidence to take the party past the Scottish elections and the European referendum and into 2017, while preparing Labour – and its electoral system – for a proper contest between its next generation of leadership candidates in time for 2020. Ideally it should still do this.
Fine - except that there is no mechanism to do so.
Essentially, we all want what we want irrespective of whether the means of getting there are ideal. It's not principled but there it is.
Luckily they had more sense than most pundits expected.
And, no, I don't want what I want irrespective of the means. Only the left think that way in modern Britain.