Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Next Prime Minister betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Next Prime Minister betting
Boris & Theresa May now 12/1 joint 2nd favourites to be next PM. EdM 8/11 favourite. http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K See pic.twitter.com/YiclNEMU6b
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The shame till he could bear no more.
He rallied his declining powers,
Summoned the youth to Brackley Towers,
And bitterly addressed him thus--
"Sir! you have disappointed us!
We had intended you to be
The next Prime Minister but three:
I can't envisage any circumstances where he would be PM
Reasoning: If Dave stays PM the 2015 GE he won't be going anywhere. Ed will be replaced, most likely by Yvette Cooper. I think their odds are the wrong way round.
Will be Ed though.
He doesn't want to be leader again though.
LOL major clanger...still think he's rubbish value at 16s
But I have Clegg at 100/1 as next PM.
1) On what planet am I responsible for the BBC's reporting?
- Have you complained to the BBC, since it seems to upset you so?
2) If you think YouGov are in breach of the BPC - take it up with Anthony Wells - not me.
- Have you complained to Anthony Wells?
Meanwhile, we are none the wiser about the identity of the SNP's 'secret Santa' Polling Company, that may, or may not, be a member of the BPC - do you know?
I think we should be told.....don't you?
Also why would anyone want to tie their money up until 2020 ?
It is just waiting 'til 2025 that puts me off.
Well unless you're Gordon Brown.
If there were sufficient time to elect a successor as Leader then I would expect Hague to accept.
So I agree Osborne is value at 33/1.
Strange Gove
Strange highs and strange lows
Strange Gove
That's how my Gove goes
Ozzy Osbourne has a better chance.
*ok we're the party that elected IDS.
Possibly given Labour most seats is about 4-9 right now.
Kind of shows as ridiculous the "two brothers" quote of Mr Thompson (no relation). David shouldn't be on that list at all.
I think May looks very good value in that scenario. Hague would only be a stand in and Osborne is not leader material. She is head and shoulders above the rest as leader and has an extremely rounded CV now.
So I think, although there is some risk of the curse of the Home Office, that a bet on Ms May is effectively a 12/1 bet on the tories winning the next election. I like those odds.
I'll be your long haired Gover from Liverpool
Little Jimmy Osmond
I would have put his odds closer to 330/1.
But he never fought a GE.
(Note - this has been a riposte in the style of Sunil.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-rkpgchJOA
True. And Sir Peter Tapsell never lost a general election either. He was a cracking leader.
The Gove Shack is a little old place where
We can get together
Gove Shack baby!
Obviously they should have picked Clarke in 2003, but other than him I'm struggling to think of any other alternative that would have done much better than Howard. IDS would certainly have done considerably worse.
We can get together
Gove Shack baby!
Aerosmith
Gove in an elevator,
livin' it up while I'm goin' down
(Mindbleach...)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2343318/37-years-Village-cricketers-banned-practising-hard-balls-decades-playing-field-health-safety-fears.html
I haven't checked but I would bet any amount of money that a woman is behind this.
"When routine bites hard
And ambitions are low
And resentment rides high
But emotions won't grow
And we're changing our ways
Taking different roads
Gove, Gove will tear us apart... Again
Gove, Gove will tear us apart....Again"
Joy division!
In addition I suspect if looked into this isn't the hse itself but some overzealous council wonk deciding it could be a health and safety issue.
According to the Parish Council, the officers of the Cricket Club have been very naughty boys:
Take for example the following alleged offences contained in the draft minutes of the Parish Council for June 2013:
Use of mechanical equipment - this is not used before 10.00am on a Sunday. The Council informed that the roller was used on Sunday at 9.20am without authority.
The collection of balls hit off the field onto the bowling greens is also an issue:
The Cricket Club requested that the Bowls Club combination be changed so that Mr Gale did not know it; only the 2 Captains would know the number and would then be responsible for retrieving the ball.
The Council undertook to pass on this this request to the Bowls Club. The Council has noted its concern at the manner in which members of the Cricket Club have undertaken negotiations with the Council: The Council has ruled that:
Offensive and aggressive behaviour is unacceptable and bad manners will not be allowed and The Chair outlined that the Council understood that it was important to have a Cricket Club in Bacton. However abusive and intransigent behaviour and a resolve to make everything difficult and to bad mouth the Council and Clerk in the village is not acceptable.
Clearly there is a crisis in Bacton which needs urgent resolution.
Perhaps antifrank should offer his services as arbitrator.
Unfortunately, not quite so straightforward as Fraser Nelson paints it, though as an ex OFSTED inspector with plenty of experience of scrutinising both outstanding and failing schools I'm convinced we should be uncompromisingly setting ourselves to transforming the outcomes of state education to ensure that the best is the target for all, and absolutely no excuses...
1. For all the excellent things Gove is doing, he made a huge and disastrous concession to the heads' union when he agreed not to insist on no-notice inspections. That really was selling the pass. It almost made me throw up to see him saying schools should get the chance to "put their best face forward". Absolutely not. It enables the poor and the complacent, underachieving schools to do things like drafting in star teachers from other schools, have staff up all night faking records, send disruptive and failing pupils off on bogus field trips, so the school gets a better outcome. It's also essential to break the link between complaints about inspections and judgements about inspection contractor firms. It's in contractor firms' interest to ensure they get as few complaints as possible. That can only mean contractors choose those inspectors who never get complaints. Any inspector who leads a team that fails a school will face a barrage of complaints. I have had that happen to me each time I led an inspection of a school that was failed. Especially where they were schools that were previously deemed to be doing well. I still remember the very senior OFSTED inspector responsible for fielding the complaints ringing me after he'd gone through the paperwork and saying, "Thank you for having the courage to do what you did.". That tells you so much
2. Changing the pupil culture of schools, particularly where there is a history of a dominant anti-school culture, even if there is a brand new academy being set up, is one of the most difficult tasks, and one that most often defeats the staff. But Michael Wilshaw with Mossbourne Academy in the heart of the most downtrodden bits of Hackney, and on the ashes of a disastrously failing comprehensive showed how it can be done. That Academy now scores way above national average exam results and gets disproportionate numbers of pupils into Oxbridge. It's one of Gove's best ever decisions to make him head of OFSTED. He is and will remain under attack from the teacher unions and the local authorities. Gove and the government have got to give him unflinching support and keep publicising to parents what he achieved.
3. Because of the vested interest campaigns against "privatised" and "for profit" state schools-- which unfortunately the Tories have gone along with, there's a failure to look very hard at why we don't do more to create branded schools controlled by one nationwide management group, so that we get the quality and uniformity of delivery we get with an M&S, a Waterstone's or even a Deloitte's.It's like we still have an unthinking belief that the old style single-owner individual cornershop is our model for school delivery. Why should it be? I would like to see Wilshaw or someone with as high an achievement record as him as the overall Director of a chain of nationwide secondary schools. The old guild-financed schools are something of an historical model, like the Haberdashers' schools. And some of the Academy groups, like Ark could be developed into such a model. If they were given financial incentives for showing that they deliver uniform quality and achievement across their brand group.
4. Boris rightly stresses that part of the reason we have such high immigration levels is that the EU migrant workforce is so much more work-oriented and capable than the London-born and educated kids being turned out of our schools. I would like to see him being the figurehead and public advocate for a Londonwide school rebrand group of all the schools not in the top sixty percent. Maybe led by someone like Seb Coe or one of the Olympic delivery executives who proved their delivery track record. Look at what was achieved in a short time with the Olympics volunteers. It can be done.
5. More union reform is also needed to help take off the brakes being applied by the teacher unions. Of course that applies to other fields vital to the UK's future. We do need to introduce as soon as possible compulsory voting by all union members for their executives and leaders as well as for strikes.
6. Last not least, we need to unshackle schools from local authorities for good. The good schools don't need them, and they have a vested interest in covering up for or propping up the bad ones. The money needs to go to the schools, and the roles and duties of the governors need to be toughened up, including greater civil liability for tolerating failure. The introduction of nationwide high quality groups led by people like Wilshaw and with governors of equivalent calibre to those of our best company directors would be one way forward.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/06/the-economic-case-for-sacking-bad-teachers/
"the first archaeological Knights Templar Meso-American whodunit Dan-Brown-send-up international drug-cartel Mafia splatter-fest of a cult thriller"
It's a distinction.
Classic stuff.
I'm blind on YouGov,
That EU-bints on my mind!
Labour shills educating;
Yet Gove still holds the line!
:shill:
Eds are amazing,
Ozzie but a fool.
Chris Huhne is...,
Bugger criminal!
:/shill:
I'm blind on YouGov,
OGH says it's true!
Vince and his puppet,
Will show that Gove is through!
Education reform;
Teachers will complain!
Why listen to consumers:
Only Gove to blame!
:shill:
Dodgy party-funding,
Lord Rennard too!
Portsmouth has a problem;
But condemn Gove too!
:/shill:
I'm blind on Cameron,
My 150-1 bet won't be true!
I'm blind on Gove,
An eejit through-and-through...!
Still spinning a story,
Giving some a little vim.
Noone really listens,
Cos' Gove is all but "bling"!
:shill:
I am a 'Liberal',
Challenged yet not true.
I blame that Tory,
A threaded Gove too!
I'm blind on YouGov,
Education is a such waste.
Gove is wasting money,
As Ed Balls has more taste....
:/shill:
In YouGov....
Apologies to a decent song....
The point about Blair and Brown is that there was years of internecine internal war because Brown had support in the labout party and was seen as the natural successor. Where is this Osborne faction in the tory party lining up to back him as a future leader? They are notable by their almost complete absence outside Osborne's head.
Hammond and Gove are deep inside the chumocracy and would be far more likely to be seen as continuity candidates who would try and keep the detoxification and modernisation agenda of Cammie's going.
Boris would almost certainly do so as well but he has the advantage of not being seen as a chumocracy candidate close to Cammie. Theresa May also does not have that disadvantage.
http://jay.law.ou.edu/faculty/Tabb/Remedies/Miller v Jackson.pdf
Looking at Wikipedia, these are the recent occasions when a party has changed Prime Ministers while still in office:
Eden -> MacMillan: Former Chancellor
MacMillan -> Douglas-Home: Not Chancellor
Wilson -> Callaghan: Former Chancellor
Thatcher -> Major: Chancellor
Blair -> Brown: Chancellor
So four out of five were previous chancellors, and the last two out of five went straight from the Chancellor job to the PM job.
The hitch is that if he wins, except as the caretaker suggested by Antifrank, it's as the successor to a successful Cameron, so it doesn't pay out for ages.
Hence him being unopposed when he became leader after Blair stepped down.
If Cammie won, and even if he decided to step down after serving just one full term, the chances of the tory party letting Osborne become leader uncontested are slim to say the least. Particularly with Europe and IN/OUT likely to dominate any future leadership contest.
In any case, parties in government don't seem to take much notice of the available polling. What matters is who has the best political machine, or who gets to take over the controls of the existing one.
" New car sales across Europe fell to their lowest level in two decades for May as the deepening recession hurt demand.
Registrations dropped 5.9% to 1.04m in May, compared to a year ago, according to the industry body, the ACEA.
This is the lowest level for May since 1993 when new registrations plunged below one million.
The UK was the only country to report a rise in sales, with sales up 11%. "
With David M he's just trying to lure the unwary by making it look like he is a credible candidate
Labour targets where they failed to win the most votes include Waveney, Morecambe, Stroud, Gloucester, Worcester, Great Yarmouth, Dover, South Ribble, Stafford, Watford, Bristol North West, Rugby, Burton, Tamworth, Derbyshire South, Staffordshire Moorlands, Bristol West:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGRabkF6R2dtNkxqZnRHUHk0cE5fM0E#gid=0
(Incidentally, I think you are basing your view of the strength of the Treasury political machine on a sample of one. Brown was an anomaly)
Was Osborne a serious leadership contender in 2005? My recollection is that Michael Howard supported David Cameron and basically endorsed him against David Davis. I'm not sure there were many other contenders at that time.
On-topic, you are betting on three possibilities - a sudden unexpected resignation, an election defeat or a planned handover. The former can't ever be ruled out but is the least likely of the three contingencies. An election defeat means in all probablilty the Labour leader taking over so you're betting on being Ed Miliband rather than anyone else.
If Cameron wins, how long does he serve? He's already been Conservative leader for ten years - if he serves a full second term as PM, he will pretty much outlast Margaret Thatcher which would be unusual. The experience of Thatcher and Blair suggests that Cameron might see 8-10 years as optimum so a handover in 2017-18 (perhaps after a "successful" EU referendum) but to whom?
I just don't see him wanting that kind of tenure in office. I suspect Blair would have preferred to stand down in 2005 and Thatcher in 1989. It's all too easy for leaders to overstay and Cameron will be aware of this.
As for whether Cammie would like to continue being PM, I'd agree he doesn't seem to have the 'hunger' for the job that some have had, but that's not quite the same as being willing to step down after just one term. He's only ever been a coalition PM as well so that also has to be taken into account.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfhLwi6fvcc
James Bond does feature in tonight's nighthawks.