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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The new one member one vote rules will transform Labour’s leadership election
Well we are off in the race to find the next LAB leader. Last night one of the most heavily tipped possible runners, ex-army Major Dan Jarvis, announced that he would not be putting his name forward. A few hours earlier the relatively unknown Liz Kendall told Andrew Neil in a live TV interview that she would (link above).
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It is of course also possible that the rise of the SNP has led English and Welsh voters to swing in greater numbers to get the government they want, they swung to the Tories last Thursday, if they want a Labour government and the eventual Labour Party leader looks like a credible PM candidate they could swing even more so to ensure it gets a majority or at least can do a deal with the LDs, night
Gosh, as a foreigner, I learn so much watching the news.
https://www.change.org/p/uk-government-remove-michael-gove-as-secretary-of-state-for-justice
What matters these days is Twitter and YouTube...
...and if the ignorant ungrateful proles get their votes wrong, you deface war memorials......
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/10/european-commission-migrant-quota-plan-mediterranean-crisis
The EU’s executive body is to unveil radical new proposals on immigration, imposing migrant quotas on the 28 countries of the union under a distribution “key” system set by Brussels. The plan, which is supported by Germany and will be fiercely resisted by the new Conservative government, will be launched by the European commission on Wednesday in response to migrant boat crisis in the Mediterranean
The real Michael Green picked up 216 votes
“Labour leadership: A scan of runners and riders reveals poor form - or no form at all.”
[..] in 1992 there was more than a natural successor to Neil Kinnock. In the portly, Sergeant Bilko-esque form of John Smith, there was an inevitable successor with experience, intellect, gravitas, a coherent political philosophy, and both the brogue and leftish perspective to appeal to Scotland.
As the latest battle for what might charitably be called Labour’s soul commences, things are different. All the candidates are either established second-raters or unknown quantities, while the problems they face are incalculably more immense. Whichever poor sod ends up winning will find him- or herself grappling with questions to which there are no obvious answers, and possibly no answers at all.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/labour-leadership-a-scan-of-runners-and-riders-reveals-poor-form--or-no-form-at-all-10240103.html
FWIW, I think Labour are ill-served by people petitioning for the removal of new ministers, etc. They may not be Labour-people, but the association of the "left" being unwilling to accept the verdict of the people is quite striking
As for the contenders to the crown, there are none that strike me as having the necessarily skills, experience or gravitas. Labour may get lucky - as the Tories did when they selected the unproven Cameron in 2005 - but they may not. Please let it be Chuka though!! I might even join to vote for him.
As an aside, I think someone said 50% of Labour members are in London. This could be a challenge for them to the extent that Londoners prefer a candidate who speaks to their interests/style rather than someone with a nationwide appeal
What has he done ?
The specific complaint here seems to be about cover-ups of child sex abuse by the Establishment. The connection with defaced war memorials is spurious.
Stepping back, clearly the model from the Tories is 'posh public school boys rock' - so why not The Honourable Tristram Julian William Hunt, FRHistS. I mean, he's got an 'The Honourable' in front of his name and is a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society - must be posher than Cameron, if such a thing is possible.....
British Chambers of Commerce have sent Cameron their shopping list. Exactly the same as in 2010. Shows just how little Osborne has done.
What is clear, however, is that the next Labour leader needs to build a broader coalition. That doesn't necessarily mean moving left or right, it means having a sense of purpose that persuades more people. That can be built in multiple ways, but requires above all a leader who recognises that. It should not be about ticking boxes marked Blairite or left-winger.
AndyJS's work overnight shows that Labour is more likely than not to require two terms as a minimum to return to power. The choice of leader should reflect that. It would be better to choose someone less experienced but with more vision than someone polished in the familiar losing ways. They're going to have the time to get the experience.
As a moderately friendly outsider, I believe that the Labour Party has more than one candidate who could do this job well. I also believe that they aren't among most of the frontrunners. Liz Kendall is a possible in my view.
As we are talking about Labour here, we can pretty much count on all the wrong choices being made. So expect a July contest with Burnham coming out on top.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11590772/Who-won-the-Twitter-campaign-battle.html
As with SindyRef - Twitter is a giant echo chamber where supporters of a particular view tweet and retweet each other working themselves into paroxysms of excitement - convinced they are changing the world. Meanwhile, the world is changing around them.....
What has been very notable is that no-one who counts has come out for Burnham, Cooper or Umunna. They've all been damaged by their association with the Miiband strategy, and I suspect (and very much hope) the new leader will be someone from the next generation.
Ed was never going to win or be PM. His strategy meant that the middle ground was ceded before the campaign started and that's before you talk about him as a person.
I proposed a bet on here that he would get under 25,000 votes which no-one took me up on.
I would have very narrowly lost - He got 25,281.
Other factors to bear in mind: Scotland is likely to be far less of a factor next time - either the Tories will have lost the Union or there will be a new constitutional settlement, with all that implies for the SNP; we will have a Tory majority government with no-one else to blame for the decisions it makes - that could work out well for them, or a lot of people may switch back to the anti-Tory camp; Ed will not be Labour leader, Dave will not be Tory leader; higher interest rates and, therefore, mortgage payments; the likelihood of a recession; the UK's poor economic fundamentals - productivity, low exports, etc - cannot continue to be hidden by other factors; and so on.
For me, the big issue was the economy. Ed seemed to have 2 responses to the economy. Firstly he wanted to regulate it, whether it was energy bills, rents, banks, ZHCs, wage levels, it just went on and on.
Secondly, if it was making money (or actually whether it was making money or not) he wanted to tax it, especially our successful banking sector.
What he never seemed to have was any vision of how to help it grow and create jobs for people. Indeed there was a constant decrying and belittling of the growth of employment during the Coalition, one of their indisputable successes. He was not really helped in this by Balls who was obsessed with fiscal policy and the same sorts of sleight of hand that had worked so well under Brown. We will balance the current budget in the next Parliament was a typical example.
Surely there are people in the Labour party who care about the real economy. We still have over 4m working in the public sector but we have more than 26m working in the private sector. Many of these are poorly paid, poorly trained, poorly qualified and dependent on state benefits to get anywhere near a living wage. A Labour leader can find a lot to say about this and get a hearing if they make it clear that they recognise the importance of making money to pay for public services.
For me Burnham not only doesn't get this, he simply has no concept of it. He is entirely concerned with the 4m instead of the 26m, with the protection of and featherbedding of the public sector workforce. Labour cannot win elections that way.
Chuka seems to have a better understanding of business but he is another London metropolitan. I think this makes him a good bet given that 50% of the electorate fall into that category but it will not necessarily make him a good leader.
The lack of talent in Labour's ranks is painful. They are not alone in this respect. Politics has become ever more brutal and unattractive to those with talent to match their ego. But I think that Labour really need not to rush to judgement on this choice.
We didn't spend too much, it was just too soon and it was the papers fault. That appears to be part of their.attitude. Could be true I guess but not helpful if that guess is wrong
It is a pointer that David Cameron does not intend Justice to be a quiet department.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/10-delusions-about-labour-defeat-watch-out
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/dont-give-angry-population-hard-govern-depressed-population-easy
Perhaps Theresa May was right after all :-)
http://labourlist.org/2015/05/what-should-we-expect-from-harriet-harmans-mini-reshuffle/
I'm all for more exposure of Captain Underpants Chris Bryant (may be ambiguous - ed.)
How's that working out for you, hun?
@politicshome: Alistair Darling: We had no economic policy under Miliband http://t.co/y8meW3sGVG http://t.co/Tr1I2C1aFc
The European Referendum.(5/5 tripability). Unbelievably difficult. Dave has to put together a coherent package that he can sell to the British public. He will have to do so when his government is less popular and when he is on the way out. And he has to find a way that allows him to campaign for In without losing his small majority. If he manages this he will truly and properly regarded as a genius for the ages.
The economy (4/5). Economic competence was the key to success but the economic cycle helped a great deal in that. In this Parliament there will be a recession, hopefully a mild one, during which borrowing will again increase from whatever level it is then at. Will probably adversely affect Osborne's chances.
Scotland. (4/5). Doing a deal with the SNP and holding the Union together is going to be incredibly difficult. I don't think anyone appreciates how irrational and profound the hatred of tories is in the SNP. Sturgeon is much more comfortably in that mind set than Salmond ever was. She will be very, very hard to deal with.
ECHR (2/5). The policy of withdrawing from the ECHR always struck me as one of the tories' silliest. There are limits about the extent to which it can be done within the EU for which it has always been a proxy amongst the minority who appreciated that it was not in fact the same. I like Gove but I recognise this puts me in a minority. His ability to wreak chaos in this area is not to be underrated.
Team management (3/5). Party management was never a particular strength of Cameron's. He really cannot be bothered with the irrational and the obsessive. With a comfortable Coalition majority he got away with it, mainly. Now with a small majority and less of a ready excuse in the Lib Dems he will have problems in this area, especially because of 1 and 4 above. The fact that he will stand down in this Parliament won't help either.
The problem is that they did overspend.
If a person has racked up lots of debt, then loses their job, until they find a new one they will have to make significant cutbacks on what they spend.
If a person has put a little bit of money away, then loses their job, they will have a bit more money to support themselves, to help them before they get a new job.
The public gets this. Labour doesn't. Of course economics doesn't work quite the same way as a personal or household budget.. But there are enough parallels that it becomes very useful in shaping public narrative.
At Justice, withdrawal from the ECHR is bound to be controversial even in the Conservative Party as well as amongst lawyers and you will of course be aware that in the Hungarian language, ECHR is an anagram of Eurosausage.
I said on the previous thread that as a Kipper all I want is a fair referendum, if the country votes to stay in then fair enough, that's deomcracy.
The party to suffer the most was the Greens who lost 444 deposits after the votes had been counted
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/merseyside-candidates-general-election-2015-9218904
Stood in 568 seats overall.
Not sure of the EW/Scottish split though...
@Mike
I have just contributed 10% of my winnings to your excellent site. Thanks for all the effort that you put into it.
A man clearly grieving over the loss of the election. Not.
Surprised I lost that bet...
Just don't dwell on it. Fight the next battle not the last.
HH will want a strong female leadership contender. Will it be Liz?
I trust your fellow Kippers are as accepting of the will of the people.....
.....just like the Nats.....
When she stands down, Labour will have lost a very strong media performer - she's not my cup of tea, but she's got steel in her spine - Margaret Beckett was another.
Surprised I got as high as 28th on the previous thread's table.
EU migrant quota scheme proposed:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32685942
Not sure how that works with freedom of movement. I do not think it will necessarily be cheered by the 1922 Committee.
I wonder if getting the referendum done in 2016, and Cameron presumably standing down at that point, thereby before any cyclical recession, might benefit anyone in particular?
All we ask for is a fair referendum, that's all.
On a related note, it was fun to read a lot of wailing in the Solicitors Journal about the big drop in Employment Tribunal claims.
@BBCNormanS: Its understood that @ARobertsonSNP will be re-elected leader of @theSNP at Westminster unopposed
@BBCNormanS: In the Commons @thesnp will take up the front row benches formerly taken by @LibDems
Smart move by Eck. Now that the SNP are impotent, doesn't want to be seen as a duffer. I wonder if there is a market on the timing of his inevitable Palace coup?
@IainMcGill: British press hunt giant Miliband tablet dubbed 'heaviest suicide note in history' - The Times of India http://t.co/c3bP4KvwZ3
She also says she doesn't know where the EdStone is.
The gift that will keep on giving long after Ed's name has been forgotten