politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a reshuffle said to be in the offing it’s time to look again at Cabinet exit betting.
If more than one cabinet leaves on the same Ladbrokes operate their dead heat rules. Thus if three of the 23 members settlement would be based on a third of your stake at the odds that you originally got.
"A Gulf source has told Reuters that Saudi Arabia had equipped fighters for the first time with shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, their most urgent request.
Rebels said Riyadh had also sent them anti-tank missiles."
The prices on the women leaving reflect the fact that Osborne briefs the press that they are at risk. Can't see the party being that stupid, but if the rumours about Liam FoxWerritty coming back are true they need to have a serious look at themselves.
It tells us - if in fact it is true - that Cammo is ever afraid of big reshuffles, scared of promoting non-cameroons who he does not know personally, and like all the things he has done, in and out of power, he acts as a big girls blouse.
Not sure why Moore is so high. I'm sure before the last reshuffle there was much talk of him going. Surely Clegg needs to bring a women into cabinet for libs given all that is going on within his party?
If Moore goes, another Scottish Lib Dem would have to replace him (unless they do the sensible thing and scrap the Scottish Secretary role altogether).
Apropos the French approach to their industries, see this quote from the Chief Executive of their financial regulator:-
There has in the past been the feeling that the French regulator not only applies regulations to the letter but, when transposing European rules, seeks to apply more stringent or protective versions," Rameix told journalists at a media event.
"This is no longer our strategy ... Our role is to avoid adding more to European regulations that might trigger a transfer of operations elsewhere."
It tells us - if in fact it is true - that Cammo is ever afraid of big reshuffles, scared of promoting non-cameroons who he does not know personally, and like all the things he has done, in and out of power, he acts as a big girls blouse.
Other than promoting betting opportunities, do big reshuffles objectively do any good? In my experience, it's a rare organisation which benefits from significant and regular changes.
@Marches That's generally true, but when you have several hundred ambitious people whose support you need, it's important to be able to give them hope of advancement. One reason that David Cameron is having trouble with his backbenches is that he has nothing to offer them.
As it happens, there's not all much he can do on this front anyway because the coalition is so explicitly brokered.
It tells us - if in fact it is true - that Cammo is ever afraid of big reshuffles, scared of promoting non-cameroons who he does not know personally, and like all the things he has done, in and out of power, he acts as a big girls blouse.
Other than promoting betting opportunities, do big reshuffles objectively do any good? In my experience, it's a rare organisation which benefits from significant and regular changes.
No. But it does tell us a lot about MikeK that he immediately uses this to reinforce his own prejudicies about Cameron without a pause for thought.
@Marches That's generally true, but when you have several hundred ambitious people whose support you need, it's important to be able to give them hope of advancement. One reason that David Cameron is having trouble with his backbenches is that he has nothing to offer them.
As it happens, there's not all much he can do on this front anyway because the coalition is so explicitly brokered.
I'm well used to post-combination law firm management, thank you.
It was the snide way of expressing it that amused me.
@Marches That's generally true, but when you have several hundred ambitious people whose support you need, it's important to be able to give them hope of advancement. One reason that David Cameron is having trouble with his backbenches is that he has nothing to offer them.
As it happens, there's not all much he can do on this front anyway because the coalition is so explicitly brokered.
I'm well used to post-combination law firm management, thank you.
It was the snide way of expressing it that amused me.
Well, for heaven's sake don't let yourself get distracted, Richard. Your creative output could be doubled simply by cutting out all the gazing at the Slovenian mountains.
It tells us - if in fact it is true - that Cammo is ever afraid of big reshuffles, scared of promoting non-cameroons who he does not know personally, and like all the things he has done, in and out of power, he acts as a big girls blouse.
I have always wondered what a big girls blouse was.
I assume that a Big Girls blouse keeps the Tits in their place - which would seem to be a compliment to Mr Cameron.
Jeez, I log on after a days graft, and the place is still more about personal point scoring than discussing the topic of a brand new thread. We need animal videos, and film and TV recommendations.
"Bob Buchan, who was born in Aberdeen and was installed as Chancellor of Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh last week, said: "Generally speaking we Scots Canadians are aware [of the independence campaign] but our view is coloured after three decades of ongoing debate on Quebec's independence which has been a tiresome project for us all."
He said: "A number of political decisions made by the separatist government in the Quebec administration have resulted in the country being laughed at," citing the work of the Quebecois "language police" as evidence of independence campaigners making Canada a "laughing stock" and a "circus"."
It tells us - if in fact it is true - that Cammo is ever afraid of big reshuffles, scared of promoting non-cameroons who he does not know personally, and like all the things he has done, in and out of power, he acts as a big girls blouse.
It tells us - if in fact it is true - that Cammo is ever afraid of big reshuffles, scared of promoting non-cameroons who he does not know personally, and like all the things he has done, in and out of power, he acts as a big girls blouse.
Cameron's preference is to keep appointed ministers in place for a longer time so that they can master their brief and implement the changes they brought about. I am reminded of the stories of high flyers in industry where people were moved on at a fast pace. My view always has been that people need a year in their new job to understand the problems, a second year to implement solutions and a third year to live with their changes.
I truly wonder about the whole concept of 're-shuffles'. In my job as 'head of something or other' I don't imagine for a moment that even if I failed in an astonishing way that the 'head of something entirely different' would be a plausible replacement.
Cameron, quite rightly, wants his ministers to get to know their departments. Unless they really run into issues or show themselves as incapable of delivering then I think that change is unlikely.
The concept of re-shuffles like this is rooted in 70s politics isn't it? Such a stupid decade.
"Arrived"? I was born in Scotland, and have never lived anywhere else. Are you saying it would have been better if I, as someone of the "wrong" ethnicity, had never been born? MODERATED
Mr. Buchan sounds like you, Moniker - full of hate against an uppity nation that dares to try to assert its own identity and place in the world.
An assertion of total irrelevance? Assert away. The UK has a shared history that gives it some influence, and perhaps more importantly it houses one of the few great cities of the world. A devolved Scotland will have no-one listening, and worse still a great many laughing. How much credence would you give to a breakaway republic of Alaska on the world stage?
A devolved Scotland will have no-one listening, and worse still a great many laughing.
Scotland is devolved, ergo by the logic of your assertion of total irrelevance, no-one is listening and a great many laughing now. Nothing to lose then.
I hesitate to dip a toe in the water of Scottish politics but - deep breath - here goes:-
There's nothing "uppity" about the Scots wanting independence. Maybe they would prefer independence for not having a big voice in the world. Maybe being able to make decisions for themselves is what counts - and hooray for that!
I don't have a dog in this fight but, really, those who want to maintain the Union need better arguments.
Well I hope it is Phil Hammond, as I've got him at 33/1, Lord Hill and all the Ladies, and Vince Cable, as you never know he might accidentally detonate his nuclear weapon.
I hesitate to dip a toe in the water of Scottish politics but - deep breath - here goes:-
There's nothing "uppity" about the Scots wanting independence. Maybe they would prefer independence for not having a big voice in the world. Maybe being able to make decisions for themselves is what counts - and hooray for that!
I don't have a dog in this fight but, really, those who want to maintain the Union need better arguments.
It was Kelly who used the word " uppity " to describe Scots Canadian Buchan's attitude to Quebec's quest to partition Canada. Scots Canadians generally have a low opinion of the neverendum and by extension the SNP.
Omnium, take a deep breath and tell me if you find the status of Denmark and Norway as independent countries "funny".
Honest answer only please.
Clearly not. Their status didn't change in modern times though. A better example perhaps would be the devolved Yugoslav states. Let's face it despite astoundingly good reasons to go it on their own and very little history within a Yugoslavian framework they are predominantly dealt with as a sympathy case.
Mr Firestopper asked for a review - here's a quick one re Stargate Universe.
I like it. It's not Stargate - more Lost crossed with Battlestar Galactica.
Shame it got cancelled, this seems to be because it tried to use the Stargate brand and went off piste re the core fans and its a lot darker. Rather like a band who decides to do something new and fans hate the album, everyone who may like it is put off by the bitching and then it falls out of the charts...
Pity really. Reminds me of Firefly - just didn't get the time to establish itself with another older demographic.
George/OGH - I like George Young but he is totally unsuited to being chief whip and has overseen numerous damaging rebellions, it is a role which requires a thuggish personality or Machiavellian manipulation to be done well. He would be useful in many other roles, someone like the ex-fireman Mike Penning would be far better!
Last thread - Looked at another way as most remaining LDs clearly support the Coalition could not an absence of LD campaigning in a Tory-Lab marginal not leave some of them as ripe pickings for the Tories?
A devolved Scotland will have no-one listening, and worse still a great many laughing.
Scotland is devolved, ergo by the logic of your assertion of total irrelevance, no-one is listening and a great many laughing now. Nothing to lose then.
Almost everything that characterises Scotland is defined with reference to the Union. Scotland isn't currently an independent state. Of course there have been some diplomatic actions that have taken place to put Scotland on the world stage from time-to-time. The odd Libyan connection for example.
A devolved Scotland will have no-one listening, and worse still a great many laughing.
Scotland is devolved, ergo by the logic of your assertion of total irrelevance, no-one is listening and a great many laughing now. Nothing to lose then.
Almost everything that characterises Scotland is defined with reference to the Union. Scotland isn't currently an independent state. Of course there have been some diplomatic actions that have taken place to put Scotland on the world stage from time-to-time. The odd Libyan connection for example.
Interesting report on last thread too on how more Chinese graduates are out of work than even some without secondary education. According to the OECD graduates are much less likely to be unemployed in OECD countries, so why is China different at present?
"As the crisis ramped up in 2008 and continued in 2009, unemployment rates increased across the board in OECD countries. However, the impact was much greater for adults without an upper secondary education. Among this group, unemployment rates rose from an already high 8.7% to 11.5%, and jumped five percentage points or more in Estonia, Ireland, Spain and the United States.
"Adults with an upper secondary or equivalent level of education fared somewhat better: among this group, unemployment rates rose from 4.9% to 6.8% between 2008 and 2009 across the OECD zone. However, in Estonia, Ireland, Spain and Turkey, jobless rates reached 10% or more for this group of people - a mark generally regarded as troublingly high territory for unemployment."
University graduate unemployment rose by 1,1%
"By contrast, people with a tertiary education were the best protected against unemployment during the thick of the global recession. Overall, unemployment rates in OECD countries ticked up just 1.1 percentage points for this group between 2008 and 2009, from 3.3% to 4.4%. Moreover, 2009 unemployment rates remained at 5% or less for tertiary-educated people in 24 out of 34 OECD countries, and surpassed 8% in only two - Spain and Turkey." http://www.scienceguide.nl/201201/oecd-data-university-degrees-are-crisis-proof.aspx
Almost everything that characterises Scotland is defined with reference to the Union. Scotland isn't currently an independent state. Of course there have been some diplomatic actions that have taken place to put Scotland on the world stage from time-to-time. The odd Libyan connection for example.
Britnat bingo - Megrahi - House!
The fact that you seem unable to differentiate between devolution and independence probably means that you should cut back on the orotund pronouncements on the subject.
Omnium, take a deep breath and tell me if you find the status of Denmark and Norway as independent countries "funny".
Clearly not. Their status didn't change in modern times though.
As it happens, Norway only became independent of Sweden in 1905 and it hadn't been independent since 1521 (or maybe earlier, depending on how you see the Union of Kalmar). Apart from a couple of years during the Napoleonic Wars when it escaped from Denmark and hadn't quite got snaffled up by Sweden.
Personally, James, Scottish independence would amuse me greatly, although I wouldn't let that put you off.
A devolved Scotland will have no-one listening, and worse still a great many laughing.
Scotland is devolved, ergo by the logic of your assertion of total irrelevance, no-one is listening and a great many laughing now. Nothing to lose then.
Almost everything that characterises Scotland is defined with reference to the Union. Scotland isn't currently an independent state. Of course there have been some diplomatic actions that have taken place to put Scotland on the world stage from time-to-time. The odd Libyan connection for example.
and pandas.
I fear for the pandas . Close association with Salmond is malignant as Goodwin , RBS , Murdoch and now Hearts can ruefully testify ;
Are the conservatives trying to see how low they can drive their vote? I see they have loosed the Perry woman and her mad filtering idea on the nation again. I thought that had died a death. So much for all Camerons lies about supporting civil liberties.
Just got a ticket to see PSB at the O2 arena tomorrow night. I'm going to have to drive down because of work (possibly in a bit of a hurry), and all the bookable car park spaces have gone.
So: does anyone have any idea the best places to park around the O2? I'm an O2 virgin...
Omnium, take a deep breath and tell me if you find the status of Denmark and Norway as independent countries "funny".
Clearly not. Their status didn't change in modern times though.
As it happens, Norway only became independent of Sweden in 1905 and it hadn't been independent since 1521 (or maybe earlier, depending on how you see the Union of Kalmar). Apart from a couple of years during the Napoleonic Wars when it escaped from Denmark and hadn't quite got snaffled up by Sweden.
Personally, James, Scottish independence would amuse me greatly, although I wouldn't let that put you off.
Actually Denmark was forced to cede Norway to Sweden in 1814 by the Treaty of Kiel, before Napoleon's final defeat. There was a brief conflict with Sweden, as well as an Allied blockade, when the Norwegians declared Independence in May but by November their parliament felt they had no choice but to elect Swedish King Charles XIII as King of Norway, in personal union.
I have no idea, to be honest I think England would probably be better off without you. I certainly don't have a strong opinion either way. What would really amuse me would be for England to leave the Union first, but that's not going to happen (although I believe it wouldn't be an unreasonable response to a Scottish "Yes" in the referendum).
A devolved Scotland will have no-one listening, and worse still a great many laughing.
Scotland is devolved, ergo by the logic of your assertion of total irrelevance, no-one is listening and a great many laughing now. Nothing to lose then.
Almost everything that characterises Scotland is defined with reference to the Union. Scotland isn't currently an independent state. Of course there have been some diplomatic actions that have taken place to put Scotland on the world stage from time-to-time. The odd Libyan connection for example.
and pandas.
I fear for the pandas . Close association with Salmond is malignant as Goodwin , RBS , Murdoch and now Hearts can ruefully testify ;
Just got a ticket to see PSB at the O2 arena tomorrow night. I'm going to have to drive down because of work (possibly in a bit of a hurry), and all the bookable car park spaces have gone.
So: does anyone have any idea the best places to park around the O2? I'm an O2 virgin...
@Theuniondivvie I just say what I think. You knew entirely what I meant by my comment and yet you chose to nit-pick. @Sunil_Prasannan,@JohnLilburne I'm fully aware (for conversational purposes) of Norway's history, and have some understanding of the rather complex history of Denmark too. Perhaps the confusion is in the word modern - I mean by that within our lifetimes. Isn't that the accepted definition?
A devolved Scotland will have no-one listening, and worse still a great many laughing.
Scotland is devolved, ergo by the logic of your assertion of total irrelevance, no-one is listening and a great many laughing now. Nothing to lose then.
Almost everything that characterises Scotland is defined with reference to the Union. Scotland isn't currently an independent state. Of course there have been some diplomatic actions that have taken place to put Scotland on the world stage from time-to-time. The odd Libyan connection for example.
and pandas.
I fear for the pandas . Close association with Salmond is malignant as Goodwin , RBS , Murdoch and now Hearts can ruefully testify ;
Good god! The curse of Salmond is worse than the curse of Gordon.
Salmond is what is known in Italy as a portasfiga.
" AN INDEPENDENT Scotland would become part of a northern European "arc of prosperity", the Scottish National Party promised yesterday.
Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, claimed that Ireland, Iceland and Norway demonstrated that small independent countries were amongst the richest in the world. "
" With RBS and HBOS - two of the world's biggest banks - Scotland has global leaders today, tomorrow and for the long-term. "
"As you know, we're in sterling and sterling is sinking like a stone. It's now about parity with the euro."
“Dear Fred, It is in Scottish interests for RBS to be successful, and I would like to offer any assistance my office can provide. Good luck with the bid. Yours for Scotland, Alex.”
A devolved Scotland will have no-one listening, and worse still a great many laughing.
Scotland is devolved, ergo by the logic of your assertion of total irrelevance, no-one is listening and a great many laughing now. Nothing to lose then.
Almost everything that characterises Scotland is defined with reference to the Union. Scotland isn't currently an independent state. Of course there have been some diplomatic actions that have taken place to put Scotland on the world stage from time-to-time. The odd Libyan connection for example.
and pandas.
Those Pandas you sold me, they won't mate. They just walk around, eating, and not mating. You sold me... queer Pandas. I want my money back.
What sort of a numpty, by the way, prices Gove at 12/1?
Osborne is more likely and there are about 10 tory cabinet ministers more likely than him. Quite absurd. If the tories had 4 cabinet members they would be Cameron, Gove, Osborne and Hague. Everyone else is negotiable and they should remember it when they want to chirp about Syria or anything else.
And much more seriously, are the Aussies going to give us a game this summer? After England have lost to SA this week we don't play anyone else for ages. It is going to be really dull if they play like they have in this tournament.
Comments
"A Gulf source has told Reuters that Saudi Arabia had equipped fighters for the first time with shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, their most urgent request.
Rebels said Riyadh had also sent them anti-tank missiles."
There we go. Saudis arm their side. Iran theirs.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/06/what-david-camerons-decision-to-keep-sir-george-young-as-chief-whip-tells-us/
Do you fit that in between writing those best-selling novels, Richard?
If Moore goes, another Scottish Lib Dem would have to replace him (unless they do the sensible thing and scrap the Scottish Secretary role altogether).
There has in the past been the feeling that the French regulator not only applies regulations to the letter but, when transposing European rules, seeks to apply more stringent or protective versions," Rameix told journalists at a media event.
"This is no longer our strategy ... Our role is to avoid adding more to European regulations that might trigger a transfer of operations elsewhere."
Pennies - or cents - dropping there.......
As it happens, there's not all much he can do on this front anyway because the coalition is so explicitly brokered.
It was the snide way of expressing it that amused me.
I assume that a Big Girls blouse keeps the Tits in their place - which would seem to be a compliment to Mr Cameron.
"Bob Buchan, who was born in Aberdeen and was installed as Chancellor of Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh last week, said: "Generally speaking we Scots Canadians are aware [of the independence campaign] but our view is coloured after three decades of ongoing debate on Quebec's independence which has been a tiresome project for us all."
He said: "A number of political decisions made by the separatist government in the Quebec administration have resulted in the country being laughed at," citing the work of the Quebecois "language police" as evidence of independence campaigners making Canada a "laughing stock" and a "circus"."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/tiresome-independence-fight.21352380
I see that Farage will be in Aberdeen tomorrow to support Otto Inglis in the fight for genuine independence.
I am reminded of the stories of high flyers in industry where people were moved on at a fast pace. My view always has been that people need a year in their new job to understand the problems, a second year to implement solutions and a third year to live with their changes.
Five minutes' walk from here there's a lovely view of Campsie Fells. I think. Either that or the Kilsyth Hills.
Cameron, quite rightly, wants his ministers to get to know their departments. Unless they really run into issues or show themselves as incapable of delivering then I think that change is unlikely.
The concept of re-shuffles like this is rooted in 70s politics isn't it? Such a stupid decade.
Honest answer only please.
There's nothing "uppity" about the Scots wanting independence. Maybe they would prefer independence for not having a big voice in the world. Maybe being able to make decisions for themselves is what counts - and hooray for that!
I don't have a dog in this fight but, really, those who want to maintain the Union need better arguments.
I like it. It's not Stargate - more Lost crossed with Battlestar Galactica.
Shame it got cancelled, this seems to be because it tried to use the Stargate brand and went off piste re the core fans and its a lot darker. Rather like a band who decides to do something new and fans hate the album, everyone who may like it is put off by the bitching and then it falls out of the charts...
Pity really. Reminds me of Firefly - just didn't get the time to establish itself with another older demographic.
"As the crisis ramped up in 2008 and continued in 2009, unemployment rates increased across the board in OECD countries. However, the impact was much greater for adults without an upper secondary education. Among this group, unemployment rates rose from an already high 8.7% to 11.5%, and jumped five percentage points or more in Estonia, Ireland, Spain and the United States.
"Adults with an upper secondary or equivalent level of education fared somewhat better: among this group, unemployment rates rose from 4.9% to 6.8% between 2008 and 2009 across the OECD zone. However, in Estonia, Ireland, Spain and Turkey, jobless rates reached 10% or more for this group of people - a mark generally regarded as troublingly high territory for unemployment."
University graduate unemployment rose by 1,1%
"By contrast, people with a tertiary education were the best protected against unemployment during the thick of the global recession. Overall, unemployment rates in OECD countries ticked up just 1.1 percentage points for this group between 2008 and 2009, from 3.3% to 4.4%. Moreover, 2009 unemployment rates remained at 5% or less for tertiary-educated people in 24 out of 34 OECD countries, and surpassed 8% in only two - Spain and Turkey."
http://www.scienceguide.nl/201201/oecd-data-university-degrees-are-crisis-proof.aspx
The fact that you seem unable to differentiate between devolution and independence probably means that you should cut back on the orotund pronouncements on the subject.
Personally, James, Scottish independence would amuse me greatly, although I wouldn't let that put you off.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/hearts-become-latest-scottish-football-club-to-enter-administration.1371485073
Just got a ticket to see PSB at the O2 arena tomorrow night. I'm going to have to drive down because of work (possibly in a bit of a hurry), and all the bookable car park spaces have gone.
So: does anyone have any idea the best places to park around the O2? I'm an O2 virgin...
Argentina - Primera B Nacional
17:06 June 17
FT Douglas Haig 1 - 0 Atletico Tucuman
I have no idea, to be honest I think England would probably be better off without you. I certainly don't have a strong opinion either way. What would really amuse me would be for England to leave the Union first, but that's not going to happen (although I believe it wouldn't be an unreasonable response to a Scottish "Yes" in the referendum).
I was giving people the tabloid version!
http://www.way2bet.com.au/news/article/rudd-odds-on-to-lead-alp-into-election#medium
Have just put a small wager on the ALP at 13/2, Rudd-led Labor is 50/50 in the polls against the Coalition
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wqfcwgT0Ds
I just say what I think. You knew entirely what I meant by my comment and yet you chose to nit-pick.
@Sunil_Prasannan,@JohnLilburne
I'm fully aware (for conversational purposes) of Norway's history, and have some understanding of the rather complex history of Denmark too. Perhaps the confusion is in the word modern - I mean by that within our lifetimes. Isn't that the accepted definition?
" AN INDEPENDENT Scotland would become part of a northern European "arc of prosperity", the Scottish National Party promised yesterday.
Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, claimed that Ireland, Iceland and Norway demonstrated that small independent countries were amongst the richest in the world. "
" With RBS and HBOS - two of the world's biggest banks - Scotland has global leaders today, tomorrow and for the long-term. "
"As you know, we're in sterling and sterling is sinking like a stone. It's now about parity with the euro."
“Dear Fred, It is in Scottish interests for RBS to be successful, and I would like to offer any assistance my office can provide. Good luck with the bid. Yours for Scotland, Alex.”
Osborne is more likely and there are about 10 tory cabinet ministers more likely than him. Quite absurd. If the tories had 4 cabinet members they would be Cameron, Gove, Osborne and Hague. Everyone else is negotiable and they should remember it when they want to chirp about Syria or anything else.
"Castles in the air tend to do that."
So does the word 'devolution' to a man who clearly doesn't understand what it means.