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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the UKIP-Lib Dem fight at GE2015 both in terms o

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the UKIP-Lib Dem fight at GE2015 both in terms of seats and votes?

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  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2013
    Brighton Kemptown Labour selection:
    Nancy Platts 126 votes Katie Ghose 48

    I think we should get Warrington South selection today too.

    Next week-end we should have Calder Valley, Bury North, Halesowen, Hornsey, South Basildon & East Thurrock, Cardiff North, Enfield North and Sheffield Hallam (on Monday).
    30th June for Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
    First weekend of July for Colne Valley, Hendon, Nuneaton, Stourbridge
    Mid July (13-14th) for Cardiff Central, Kingswood, Crawley, Rugby, Hampstead
    Weekend of 20-21th July: Croydon Central, Battarsea, Pavillion

  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429
    My guess at the next election is C32,L32,LD16,UKIP12,O8.

    What it means in terms of seats I'm not sure, probably L largest but without a majority.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I doubt that UKIP will be in double figures in vote share. The Lib Dems will almost certainly far outpace them in both vote share and seats.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited June 2013

    My guess at the next election is C32,L32,LD16,UKIP12,O8.

    What it means in terms of seats I'm not sure, probably L largest but without a majority.

    I agree with your numbers although I think Labour would be able to form a majority government with 32 %. The consequences for the Labour movement could be extremely negative.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    LDs should get the higher share with each easily, but UKIP could still get a significant amount. Breaking through and gaining a seat remains a huge challenge though.

    OT just saw Man of Steel - really good, beautifully shot, if a bit oddly paced at times. Not being a comic reader I'm not sure how they have Superman be on someone's team and it not be a massive irrelevance to have a team, when his fights with people can basically level cities, and he's not even so dumb that he'll always be outsmarted. But as a movie, holds up very well, and I've never been a fan of most previous superman movies.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 9m

    Can it be true that Met Office’s temperature forecasts in 12 out of the last 13 years have been too warm? None issued ended up too cold?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited June 2013
    O/T:

    Yellow Duckmarine tour bus in Liverpool sinks with 30 people on board. Reports are that everyone has been rescued:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1104125/tourist-bus-sinks-with-30-people-on-board
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good evening, everyone.

    Lib Dems will beat UKIP on both counts.
  • Robert_EveRobert_Eve Posts: 31
    I'll certainly be voting UKIP.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    How many seats will the Kippers actually stand in? I can see them outpolling the LDs where they stand, but getting fewer votes overall.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Okay - after finding Inception unbearable tosh, I'm about to watch The Matrix - how I managed to avoid it for 14yrs is a mystery but I'm wondering if I'm going to hate this film as well...

    I saw this review [one of many saying much the same] and LOL

    "This is one of the worst attempts I have seen at film-making. Without the special effects, there would be nothing except a bunch of guys dressed as the Blues Brothers following Keanu Reeves around a blue screen.

    But then, without the special effects they wouldn't have used all the slow motion either, and so the film would have been about five minutes long. And believe me, five minutes of the Blues Brothers against a blue backdrop would have been much more entertaining."

    I can recommend Wolverine Origins if you fancy some good CGI, fight scenes, a bit of wit and lots of baddies vs goodies. Nice mindless action with uber eye candy re Mr Jackman who has his shirt off most of the time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    The original Matrix film is pretty good IMO.

    This is interesting — phone boxes in urban areas are apparently still used a lot with 65,000 calls a day:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22861389
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    Okay - speaking of unbearable tosh.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXKPBny5JOc

    and LOL ;^ )



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    How many seats will the Kippers actually stand in? I can see them outpolling the LDs where they stand, but getting fewer votes overall.

    They're planning to stand everywhere in GB and maybe in NI as well. They've selected 43 candidates so far compared to 24 for the LDs:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Miss Plato, I thought that the first Matrix film was quite enjoyable. Especially considering Keanu Reeves plays the protagonist.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    On Topic. More MPs and votes for the lib dems though keeping Clegg as leader is as good a way to push the votes down as you could find.

    If the swivel-eyed loons in the tory party decide to go berserk on Europe during the election campaign that would obviously push up the kipper vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Plato said:

    Okay - after finding Inception unbearable tosh, I'm about to watch The Matrix - how I managed to avoid it for 14yrs is a mystery but I'm wondering if I'm going to hate this film as well...

    I saw this review [one of many saying much the same] and LOL

    "This is one of the worst attempts I have seen at film-making. Without the special effects, there would be nothing except a bunch of guys dressed as the Blues Brothers following Keanu Reeves around a blue screen.

    But then, without the special effects they wouldn't have used all the slow motion either, and so the film would have been about five minutes long. And believe me, five minutes of the Blues Brothers against a blue backdrop would have been much more entertaining."

    I can recommend Wolverine Origins if you fancy some good CGI, fight scenes, a bit of wit and lots of baddies vs goodies. Nice mindless action with uber eye candy re Mr Jackman who has his shirt off most of the time.

    You can recommend Wolverine Origins for good CGI? His adamantium claws looked preposterously bad in that one.

    The first Matrix is a fun movie, especially if you have affinity for everything been green tinted. Although I actually watched Blues Brothers a few weeks ago and it wasn't anywhere near as fun as I remembered. Ah, nostalgia. Now I'm in my late 20s I find it is cropping up more and more.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    Carola said:
    Worth posting that more fully though it sadly has nothing to do with somebody wittering on endlessly about films which is a bit of a disadvantage for a political betting site.
    David Cameron is no longer regarded more favourably than the Conservative Party, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror tomorrow. Both the leader and the party are rated favourably by 23 per cent and unfavourably by 52 per cent of voters.

    Labour has a nine-point lead as the Conservatives have dropped to their lowest rating in a ComRes poll when people were asked how they would vote:

    Con 26% (-3)
    Lab 35% (0)
    UKIP 19% (0)
    LD 10% (+2)
    Others 10% (+1)

    (Change since last ComRes online poll last month.)

    The leadership ambitions of Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayor of London, will be boosted by the finding that he is regarded favourably by 44 per cent of votes and unfavourably by only 27 per cent, the only positive rating of the five politicians tested.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Miss Plato, I thought that the first Matrix film was quite enjoyable. Especially considering Keanu Reeves plays the protagonist.

    @Andy_JS @MorrisDancer

    I'm waiting to see how it goes - only a few mins in so far... I do have pizza on my mind though so the omens aren't good :^ )

    Now I think about - I avoided it because IMO Keanu Reeves is a pretty face and a terrible actor. Then again I can't bear Leonardo Di Caprio but loads rave about him - I can't think of a film of his I've taken to, I just endure him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    SeanT said:

    Has the site died? 18 comments in 3 hours? Did tim successfully drive everyone away?

    Will it help if I post the views from my hotel?


    http://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/345949867576811520/photo/1


    http://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/345949947046268928/photo/1

    Seriously. This is a bit sad.

    PB needs

    1 an election

    2 a way of controlling tim so that his energy is preserved but his offputting unpleasantness is defanged.

    It's Saturday afternoon.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. kle4, I've just written a First Impressions piece about The Last of Us, and realised that the last time I played a zombie game was probably Resident Evil 2, 15 years ago.

    [It's here, if you're interested: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/the-last-of-us-first-impressions.html]
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    More from the ComRes.
    NHS

    The problems with NHS Accident and Emergency services are mostly the fault of the last Labour government rather than the current Coalition Government
    Agree 32% Disagree 40% Don’t know 28%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Miss Plato, stick with it. I'm not a Reeves fan either, but the film's worth watching.

    Mr. T/kle4, whilst true it's not exactly peak traffic time the site's still quiet.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pork, I dislike that question. Better to ask two:
    Labour is to blame for the NHS A&E situation
    and
    The Coalition is to blame for the NHS A&E situation

    'Mostly' is a bad term. Could mean Labour's 99% or 51% to blame, or that Labour's to blame but the Coalition isn't.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Okay - after finding Inception unbearable tosh, I'm about to watch The Matrix - how I managed to avoid it for 14yrs is a mystery but I'm wondering if I'm going to hate this film as well...

    I saw this review [one of many saying much the same] and LOL

    "This is one of the worst attempts I have seen at film-making. Without the special effects, there would be nothing except a bunch of guys dressed as the Blues Brothers following Keanu Reeves around a blue screen.

    But then, without the special effects they wouldn't have used all the slow motion either, and so the film would have been about five minutes long. And believe me, five minutes of the Blues Brothers against a blue backdrop would have been much more entertaining."

    I can recommend Wolverine Origins if you fancy some good CGI, fight scenes, a bit of wit and lots of baddies vs goodies. Nice mindless action with uber eye candy re Mr Jackman who has his shirt off most of the time.

    You can recommend Wolverine Origins for good CGI? His adamantium claws looked preposterously bad in that one.

    The first Matrix is a fun movie, especially if you have affinity for everything been green tinted. Although I actually watched Blues Brothers a few weeks ago and it wasn't anywhere near as fun as I remembered. Ah, nostalgia. Now I'm in my late 20s I find it is cropping up more and more.
    I thought the claws on Wolverine were terrible but the rest of it was quite entertaining and it moved along at a nice pace - I didn't feel I needed to rewind it or had time to make a cup of tea. After Inception, I needed reassuring that I hadn't developed ADHD!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    @Plato

    Although it has to be said one of the main selling points of The Matrix was the truly amazing special effects for the time, which was 1999. They might fail to make an impact these days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2013

    Mr. kle4, I've just written a First Impressions piece about The Last of Us, and realised that the last time I played a zombie game was probably Resident Evil 2, 15 years ago.

    [It's here, if you're interested: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/the-last-of-us-first-impressions.html]

    Many thanks indeed, I've been wondering if it might be worth a look.

    Come to think of it, I don't think I've played a zombie game since playing RE 2 with my elder brother, although I did load up the first Walking Dead episode (the game that is) the other day, which is very much not a typical zombie game experience.

    Speaking of Zombies with a twist, has anyone checked out the Newsflesh trilogy? I heard decent things and l liked the idea of a savvy kind of zombie response in the modern age that was promised (George Romero is considered a saint in the setting, as his movies unwittingly predicted the measures we would all need in a zombie apocalypse), but I found the characters too unbearably smug and self satisfied, and a forced new-media vs old-media idea that was implemented very pooly indeed (apparently everyone relies on blogging culture for news now, and yet the new-media protagonists are still somehow part of a new-media influence that is not respected by the old-media and so marginalised, despite it apparently being dead. So is it dead or not?)

    The second book I've not managed to finish, as I just cannot get over the POV protagonist being obviously crazy (that is, breakdowns and hallucinations) and yet no-one seems to care and still does what they say all the time, handwaved away as though it's something everyone has to let go, because he's just crazy so deal with it.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Feed-The-Newsflesh-Trilogy-Book/dp/035650056X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1371319494&sr=8-1&keywords=feed
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Keiran Pedley ‏@keiranpedley 4m

    More bad news for David Cameron as public favour Boris http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/06/15/comres-poll-boris-beckons/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Not really that bad news for Cammie since Boris is no closer to being in the commons nor does there seem to be anything at all on the horizon yet. That won't stop him having some fun and trading insults with Clegg though. ;)

    Boris Johnson: Nick Clegg Is Just David Cameron's 'Cup Bearer'

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4SJsTj1XTg


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    UKIP must be breathing a sigh of relief with this latest poll putting them on 19%. We'd had a serious of surveys putting them on just 12%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    That's a fair point, Mr. JS. It's not so long ago we were using floppy disks with 1.44MB of storage space. I've got a cheap and slightly old flashdrive with 8GB of memory (1GB = 1,024MB).

    Another useful comparison is console storage. I think the Playstation has 120kb memory cards, the PS2 8MB memory cards and the small PS3 hard drive is 40GB. It's a phenomenal rate of technological progress.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Andy_JS said:

    UKIP must be breathing a sigh of relief with this latest poll putting them on 19%. We'd had a serious of surveys putting them on just 12%.

    12 would still be good, so likely not relief at the 19, but happiness they have a chance to keep the momentum going a bit more.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013

    Mr. Pork, I dislike that question. Better to ask two:
    Labour is to blame for the NHS A&E situation
    and
    The Coalition is to blame for the NHS A&E situation

    'Mostly' is a bad term. Could mean Labour's 99% or 51% to blame, or that Labour's to blame but the Coalition isn't.

    Agreed. It does seem to stack the deck in multiple ways but it's salience as an issue is hardly going to diminish given the continuing news stories around that subject and the NHS.
    Many GPs 'Can't Promise Safe Care'

    Family doctors warn their profession is in crisis as they battle huge workloads, with some seeing up to 60 patients a day

    http://news.sky.com/story/1103954/many-gps-cant-promise-safe-care
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Miss Plato, stick with it. I'm not a Reeves fan either, but the film's worth watching.

    Mr. T/kle4, whilst true it's not exactly peak traffic time the site's still quiet.

    Politics seems a bit dull right now, even the twists expected. Mid term fatigue?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited June 2013
    Mr. Pork, as you may be aware of, 'cup bearer' was a task often given to a handsome youth, whose master would become intimately acquainted with him. That's a very Boris way of saying that Clegg is Cameron's bitch.

    Mr. kle4, I've seen bits of that Walking Dead game. It sounds more interesting than the usual fare. I'd not heard of the Newsflesh trilogy or read any of it.

    I still have fond memories of the terrible voice-acting in Resident Evil 2. And the licker creeped me out a bit.

    Edited extra bit: Miss Plato, Con Air's on BBC3 at 10pm. Not sure if that's your kind of thing, but I rather liked it.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Andy_JS said:

    @Plato

    Although it has to be said one of the main selling points of The Matrix was the truly amazing special effects for the time, which was 1999. They might fail to make an impact these days.

    I can't knock for being very stylish - if a bit coolier-than-thou/poseurish. I must find out who did the costume design...

    The CGI seems to be holding up well - if it wasn't for the giant cathode ray monitors and green dot matrix type, I wouldn't notice it was made in 1999.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    UKIP holding up with Opinium as well:

    LAB 36% (-1%)
    CON 27%(+1%)
    UKIP 20% (-1%)
    Lib Dems 7% (+1%)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Mr. Pork, as you may be aware of, 'cup bearer' was a task often given to a handsome youth, whose master would become intimately acquainted with him. That's a very Boris way of saying that Clegg is Cameron's bitch.

    Mr. kle4, I've seen bits of that Walking Dead game. It sounds more interesting than the usual fare. I'd not heard of the Newsflesh trilogy or read any of it.

    I still have fond memories of the terrible voice-acting in Resident Evil 2. And the licker creeped me out a bit.

    Edited extra bit: Miss Plato, Con Air's on BBC3 at 10pm. Not sure if that's your kind of thing, but I rather liked it.

    Con Air = with Mel Gibson? Crikey, I saw that at the cinema! It's rather a good romp - I'm rather fond of Mr Gibson, such a shame he self-destructed. Have you seen him in Payback? The only role I can think of where he's actually a nasty character - it was quite controversial at the time... and he's marvellous in What Women Want/Lethal Weapon et al.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    edited June 2013
    Mick_Pork said:


    Many GPs 'Can't Promise Safe Care'
    Family doctors warn their profession is in crisis as they battle huge workloads, with some seeing up to 60 patients a day
    Not sure I understand that story. GPs are independent businesses and choose how many people they employ. There's nothing stopping a practice employing more doctors. OK the partners would have to accept lower salaries but as we're told they're on an average of £100K+ I don't think most people would have much sympathy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited June 2013
    Farage comes out against arming rebels in Syria:

    "Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 8h

    Very worried about the escalation of events in Syria but we should not be arming either side."


    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    That's a very Boris way of saying that Clegg is Cameron's bitch.

    Obviously and there are few more potent attacks on Clegg than that given the continual hemorrhaging of his base.

    Just as interesting is the prospect of 'Boris FM' as that hardly speaks of someone preparing for a quiet life. Quite the opposite. Boris will also be more apt to speak his mind than Clegg and I doubt that will fill Cammie with joy.

    I still can't see any way into the commons for him this side of 2015 though things could still change I suppose depending on certain MPs and their calculations about future leadership scenarios.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Is Mel Gibson in it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    UKIP sub-10% come 2015. As has been well-rehearsed on here, it's all about LD=>Lab returnees.

    My $0.02 is that a lot of that LD support will be sticky.

    Labour weren't fit to govern in 2010 and won't be in 2015.

    @SeanT? Watching re-run of the Birthday Parade on BBC2.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Andy_JS said:

    Farage comes out against arming rebels in Syria:

    "Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 8h

    Very worried about the escalation of events in Syria but we should not be arming either side."


    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage

    Shouldn't we be arming both sides? Not only would it almost certainly result in a quicker end to hostilities, but it would mean that a generation of Middle Eastern fighters are accustomed to British weapons.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Is Mel Gibson in it?

    Nope its me - I'm thinking of Air America with Mel with an incredibly young Robert Downey Jnr
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Mick_Pork said:


    Many GPs 'Can't Promise Safe Care'
    Family doctors warn their profession is in crisis as they battle huge workloads, with some seeing up to 60 patients a day
    Not sure I understand that story. GPs are independent businesses and choose how many people they employ. There's nothing stopping a practice employing more doctors. OK the partners would have to accept lower salaries but as we're told they're on an average of £100K+ I don't think most people would have much sympathy.


    I think it's a reaction to being hit by the Daily Mail/Jeremy Hunt double team (nurses and managers had it previously).

    I do understand there is a shortage of people training to be GPs though.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    Re Boris

    I do find it a strange feature of our (largely unwritten) constitution that the Mayor of a conurbation numbering some 8 million souls is not considered a candidate for Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minsiter, whereas he would be if he happened to be MP for West Fuckwitshire. Especially as there is nothing constitutionally which demands that the PM is a member of Parliament, and it would be easy enough to find him a seat if he was elected.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    re Libya

    The ideal of course would be to arm the rebels, overthrow Assad, and then get the moderates to sell the salafists down the river and induce them to enter a convenient free fire zone...

    Whatever happened to diplomacy?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013

    There's nothing stopping a practice employing more doctors. OK the partners would have to accept lower salaries but as we're told they're on an average of £100K+ I don't think most people would have much sympathy.

    A brave calculation given the polling on trust and where GPs and doctors fall compared to say politicians.

    Wages are an issue, no question about that.
    Recession prompted 'unprecedented' fall in wages

    Wages have fallen more in real terms in the current economic downturn than ever before, according to a report.

    On top of the rising cost of living, a third of workers who stayed in the same job saw a wage cut or freeze between 2010 and 2011, said the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22860320
    But whether Cammie and Osbrowne really want to start lecturing GPs or doctors on pay cuts (given what is coming) is debatable to say the least.
    MPs may get £10k pay rise: But they say: 'It's not snouts in the trough - if you pay peanuts you get monkeys'

    Annual salaries would increase from £65,738 to £75,000

    May be staged of five years from 2015, after the General Election

    Officials could also demand that they give up their guaranteed pensions

    One senior MP describes salary as a 'pitiful pay cheque'


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326816/MPs-10k-pay-rise-But-say-Its-snouts-trough--pay-peanuts-monkeys.html



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Re Boris

    I do find it a strange feature of our (largely unwritten) constitution that the Mayor of a conurbation numbering some 8 million souls is not considered a candidate for Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minsiter, whereas he would be if he happened to be MP for West Fuckwitshire. Especially as there is nothing constitutionally which demands that the PM is a member of Parliament, and it would be easy enough to find him a seat if he was elected.

    As popular as Boris is, for a politician, I think he'd have to be revolutionarily popular to reverse that convention of the PM or party leader having to be in parliament. He could be another Beppe Grillo!

    I think eventually Boris will just stick with being Mayor of London as long as he can. Too many people in the parliamentary party will not want him as leader, and by the time he has a real opportunity I think he'll have been on the scene for long enough that his popularity will start to wane.

    On another note, I see the other day Ken Clarke entered the top 5 longest serving cabinet ministers in the modern era. Don't think he'll get 6 more years to break the record.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013

    Re Boris

    I do find it a strange feature of our (largely unwritten) constitution that the Mayor of a conurbation numbering some 8 million souls is not considered a candidate for Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minsiter, whereas he would be if he happened to be MP for West Fuckwitshire. Especially as there is nothing constitutionally which demands that the PM is a member of Parliament, and it would be easy enough to find him a seat if he was elected.


    Kind of misses the point that any prospective leader still has to win over much of the commons and tory MPs anyway given the process for electing a leader. You can't really do that very effectively from the outside and popular as Boris is he would still be at a big disadvantage unless he had put some time in as an MP again. The longer the better.

    You could theoretically make changes that would make it far easier for those like a Mayor to get into the commons or take part but changes to the leadership election process and elegibility rules are never easy to push through for any party leader and are usually regarded with suspicion from backbenchers.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Freggles said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    Many GPs 'Can't Promise Safe Care'
    Family doctors warn their profession is in crisis as they battle huge workloads, with some seeing up to 60 patients a day
    Not sure I understand that story. GPs are independent businesses and choose how many people they employ. There's nothing stopping a practice employing more doctors. OK the partners would have to accept lower salaries but as we're told they're on an average of £100K+ I don't think most people would have much sympathy.
    I think it's a reaction to being hit by the Daily Mail/Jeremy Hunt double team (nurses and managers had it previously).

    I do understand there is a shortage of people training to be GPs though.


    There is certainly a shortage of Trained GPs, particularly in inner cities, where it is often impossible to appoint anyone.

    While Partners often earn £100 000, salaried GPs are on £60 000 or so. Many are part time, particularly due to the feminisation of medicine over recent decades, so on correspondingly reduced salaries. Not bad money, but not quite the sums occasionally quoted in the papers.

    The payscales for GPs and Consultants are here:

    http://bma.org.uk/practical-support-at-work/pay-fees-allowances/pay-scales-salaried-gps

    The fact that it is hard to find a GP over 55 shows how unhappy the workforce is. When I qualified 25 years ago many GPs worked on into their late sixties or even seventies.

    It is not as easy as it sounds to simply take on more staff. There needs to be a consulting room, clerical support, equipment, parking, supervisory and quality control supervision etc.

    The most overcrowded practices are often so because of an adjacent practice closing, often because of being unable to appoint, and the patients being sent to the overcrowded one by the powers that be.

    Pulse today has some scary figures in its news this week:

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/political/gp-leader-calls-for-parliamentary-debate-over-gp-burnout/20003208.article#.Uby5PbtZ5I8

  • Blofelds_CatBlofelds_Cat Posts: 154

    Mick_Pork said:


    Many GPs 'Can't Promise Safe Care'
    Family doctors warn their profession is in crisis as they battle huge workloads, with some seeing up to 60 patients a day
    Not sure I understand that story. GPs are independent businesses and choose how many people they employ. There's nothing stopping a practice employing more doctors. OK the partners would have to accept lower salaries but as we're told they're on an average of £100K+ I don't think most people would have much sympathy.


    Mr Lilburne, you're absolutely right: GPs are independent businessmen. The problem is there are just not the qualified GPs around to be employed.

    At our last recruitment, we had 2 applicants and neither were UK graduates. We followed references and were unable to appoint. And our practice would be considered to be in the desirable top 10%.

    This just means that the senior doctors have to spend much more time seeing patients and less in training the 10,000 extra GPs :) that we are promised!
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