Re: 1992 Poll; if I remember rightly the exit poll was a stinker too. There was something fundamentally wrong with the polling technique overstating Labour by all pollsters.
The 92 exit poll had a range that turned out shy for the Con score. So that whiffed a tad whereas the media polls were absolute stinkers
@JackW Thanks for the clarification JackW, the omnipotent sage and all knowing presence, linked somewhere in the atomic structure of pbCOM.
Whilst SLAB have been moribund for a long time, it is interesting to ask why they have collapsed now.
After all, 9 months ago, Alistair Darling was being feted as the Saviour of the Union after he won the first debate against Alex Salmond.
The SNP have consistently provided a much more positive vision for Scotland, and the SNP leadership looks much more authentically Scottish. There is some deep soul-searching ahead for SLAB.
My own feeling is that there is absolutely no hope for SLAB, while the UK leadership of Labour looks and is so London-based. It just feeds into the ideology of a distant leadership imposing its authority on Scotland that echoes 1745 and Lochaber No More and the Highland Clearances and the Poll Tax.
Even when Labour MPs nominally represent Northern or Midlands seats (like Ed Miliband or Tristram Hunt or Caroline Flint), they are really just Londoners, born or bought up in London.
Labour is a very London party now. After the election, it will be even more so. That is a big problem for those who want to reinvent SLAB.
I don't wholly agree with the way you're putting it - in particular, I think the other Scottish parties are just as Scottish as the SNP is - but I'd agree that there is a London question and that it affects the Scottish question in a big way.
It's going to be interesting to see whether LAB (and not just SLAB) can address it. After the NO victory in the indyref they could have got the bit between their teeth, taken up the issue and run with it, but they didn't have a clue. Completely lacking in imagination and vision. I imagine that even if there's a LAB majority in the GE they will still stay reactive. If there's a hung parliament, they may possibly get their act together, probably just responding to CON, but even so, still actually recognising the London question and the English question and cobbling something together. If there's a CON-LD coalition, which seems to me quite likely, they'll find something to whinge about but are likely to go on being just as vision-free until some changes of personnel up top.
There have beenv17 YG polls since their change of methodology (startin with their poll published on April 8) and the most noticeable change has been with 2010 Lds. In March they were retaining more than losing to Labour and since the change this has in general sharply reversed.
From a longtime lurker and very occasional poster, perhaps I can leave you with my theory for the Yougov discrepancy.
With the phone polls, you are more inclined to take part in the survey when contacted, whereas with Yougov they simply send you an invitation, the incentive being 50p for 10 minutes of your time (below the minimum wage!).
So, when a busy businessman such as myself gets an invite I may or may not respond depending upon whether I've got 10 minutes and a cup of tea in my hand or if I'm dealing with some important work. If I'm busy then the invite drops off the bottom of my inbox page and forgotten about.
Therefore, since busy people are more likely to vote Conservative and are less likely to fill in online surveys on a consistent basis perhaps this can explain the variance with Yougov.
Of course I may be wrong (but that would be unusual!)
Surely balanced by the bone-idle people watching Jeremy Kyle instead who are more likely to be Labour?
'Londoners planning to vote Ukip in the election are the least proud about their choice, a survey reveals today. Just 39 per cent of those intending to back Nigel Farage’s party say they would be proud to tell friends or family, says the YouGov poll for the Standard. This contrasts with 58 per cent of Labour supporters — the most proud — 49 per cent of Conservative voters and 45 per cent of Liberal Democrat backers
The poll also showed more Lib-Dem and Ukip supporters were “shy” about telling others of their voting intentions, with eight per cent who favour either party saying this is how they felt.'
It's all a bit murky. Mr Mackinlay was actually a member of Ukip before defecting to the Tories in 2005. The couple set up the Angolmelo.com website, which is said to translates roughly as "work in England" in 2008. The web address was renewed in October 2014.
Bit embarrassing for the Tories, given star Boris Johnson was canvassing with Mr Mackinlay only this week.'
It's only embarrassing if you are a racist who hates Eastern Europeans en masse.
I am still hoping that in all seats UKIP have a shout, the anti-UKIP vote will find a candidate of any other party to support.
What a load of rubbish, your head in the sand attitude is the cause of the disquiet
You'll be left hoping. Seems you are as clueless on that as you are wilfully naive on immigration
OK
Any advice how I should tell my son his Polish friend in his class needs to be sent home if you lot win?
Trouble with UKIP is that I am hugely Eurosceptic, but you lot have totally toxified that argument by associating it with BNP-lite attitudes. You have shot yourselves in the foot so badly you have no toes left
"I pointed out to you yesterday that that collaborator tweet was a reference to a satirical website - though neither were in particularly good taste. And linked you to an analysis which raised serious issues about Kezia Dugdale and SLAB's good faith in such matters.
Thanks for that. I've just read your link to Wings over Scotland. Why did Mr Hay apologise and why did Nicola Sturgeon say she accepted his apology if the story was untrue? Also the site is an SNP propaganda site which is an odd way of refuting a story
Presumably Ed Miliband's comments on Libya are intended to move the conversation on from the SNP. I agree with the thrust of these comments, but wouldn't it have been better for the remarks to be made by Douglas Alexander (in more intemperate terms) if this was the aim? When playing chess, the king should be deployed with care; better to put a piece in peril that you can afford to lose, especially one that is already en prise.
Whilst SLAB have been moribund for a long time, it is interesting to ask why they have collapsed now.
After all, 9 months ago, Alistair Darling was being feted as the Saviour of the Union after he won the first debate against Alex Salmond.
The SNP have consistently provided a much more positive vision for Scotland, and the SNP leadership looks much more authentically Scottish. There is some deep soul-searching ahead for SLAB.
My own feeling is that there is absolutely no hope for SLAB, while the UK leadership of Labour looks and is so London-based. It just feeds into the ideology of a distant leadership imposing its authority on Scotland that echoes 1745 and Lochaber No More and the Highland Clearances and the Poll Tax.
Even when Labour MPs nominally represent Northern or Midlands seats (like Ed Miliband or Tristram Hunt or Caroline Flint), they are really just Londoners, born or bought up in London.
Labour is a very London party now. After the election, it will be even more so. That is a big problem for those who want to reinvent SLAB.
I don't wholly agree with the way you're putting it - in particular, I think the other Scottish parties are just as Scottish as the SNP is - but I'd agree that there is a London question and that it affects the Scottish question in a big way.
Don't forget in the past, labour a strong scottish identity (the so-called scottish mafia), with Brown as the big beast, but also the likes of Reid, Dewar, Cook, Darling, Robertson and probably many others.
No so now... who's the main scottish labour guy present, Douglas Alexander?? Lol
"Tried reading the Whinge several times, but found it turgid separatist propaganda and gave up on it. No reason to believe that it's changed. I'm sure I can recommend several blogs to you with a different view that you would consider similar. "
As Carnyx has also pointed out to you, Wings backs up his views by providing evidential links supporting what he says.
If you can find me a unionist website re Scotland with the same forensic approach I will be much impressed-and stunned :-) About as likely as finding a crowd of real voters around Murphy I suspect.
There have beenv17 YG polls since their change of methodology (startin with their poll published on April 8) and the most noticeable change has been with 2010 Lds. In March they were retaining more than losing to Labour and since the change this has in general sharply reversed.
Also, prior to the change, the Tory share was 35 to 37 points and this immediately dropped by 2 to 3 points after the change.
From a longtime lurker and very occasional poster, perhaps I can leave you with my theory for the Yougov discrepancy.
With the phone polls, you are more inclined to take part in the survey when contacted, whereas with Yougov they simply send you an invitation, the incentive being 50p for 10 minutes of your time (below the minimum wage!).
So, when a busy businessman such as myself gets an invite I may or may not respond depending upon whether I've got 10 minutes and a cup of tea in my hand or if I'm dealing with some important work. If I'm busy then the invite drops off the bottom of my inbox page and forgotten about.
Therefore, since busy people are more likely to vote Conservative and are less likely to fill in online surveys on a consistent basis perhaps this can explain the variance with Yougov.
Of course I may be wrong (but that would be unusual!)
v elegant.
(Welcome.)
This is also my theory. Surely they must account for this but if not?
Presumably Ed Miliband's comments on Libya are intended to move the conversation on from the SNP. I agree with the thrust of these comments, but wouldn't it have been better for the remarks to be made by Douglas Alexander (in more intemperate terms) if this was the aim? When playing chess, the king should be deployed with care; better to put a piece in peril that you can afford to lose, especially one that is already en prise.
I wouldn't have thought anyone would have reported a speech by Douglas Alexander, would they?
It's all a bit murky. Mr Mackinlay was actually a member of Ukip before defecting to the Tories in 2005. The couple set up the Angolmelo.com website, which is said to translates roughly as "work in England" in 2008. The web address was renewed in October 2014.
Bit embarrassing for the Tories, given star Boris Johnson was canvassing with Mr Mackinlay only this week.'
It's only embarrassing if you are a racist who hates Eastern Europeans en masse.
I am still hoping that in all seats UKIP have a shout, the anti-UKIP vote will find a candidate of any other party to support.
What a load of rubbish, your head in the sand attitude is the cause of the disquiet
You'll be left hoping. Seems you are as clueless on that as you are wilfully naive on immigration
OK
Any advice how I should tell my son his Polish friend in his class needs to be sent home if you lot win?
Trouble with UKIP is that I am hugely Eurosceptic, but you lot have totally toxified that argument by associating it with BNP-lite attitudes. You have shot yourselves in the foot so badly you have no toes left
Record levels of support and about to get their best election result by any measurement
Georgie Best where did it all go wrong?
You're good at writing fiction it seems from your posts, so be inventive regarding your sons friend
Presumably Ed Miliband's comments on Libya are intended to move the conversation on from the SNP. I agree with the thrust of these comments, but wouldn't it have been better for the remarks to be made.....
......at any of the multiple PMQs since the crisis started?
A pretty big story coming out from Edinburgh. The ugly face of nationalism
"NICOLA Sturgeon has refused to sack the SNP’s Edinburgh South candidate Neil Hay after he was unmasked as a cybernat who likened pro-UK supporters to Nazi collaborators and said elderly voters could “barely remember their own names”.
I pointed out to you yesterday that that collaborator tweet was a reference to a satirical website - though neither were in particularly good taste. And linked you to an analysis which raised serious issues about Kezia Dugdale and SLAB's good faith in such matters.
I find it incredible that various Nats on here use that site as some sort of basis for any sane argument. Given the blogger's views on topics such as Hillsborough and 9/11 etc. I very much doubt anyone outside the cult is going to anywhere near it..
A regular poster replied to one of my initial postings on this site - PB - by presenting evidence that Celtic fans were a bunch of mass Nazi-saluting types.
(Come to think of it, was it you who posted that? I can't remember. Apologies if not.)
Not me - and I'd say apart from a couple of bammers who got into trouble at a match in Israel then that isn't true - well not since the end of WW2.
The pro-republican element have a similar blogger who has obtained similar messiah status - a failed social worker who fled to Ireland - full of similar "facts" and "sources" but lasted just 2 days when a proper newspaper signed him up and was binned in disgrace.
Surprised the National haven't signed the Reverend up - seems a perfect match ?
My overall assessment of the polls is that CON are in the region of 2% ahead. I place more value in phone polls more than online ones.
I think most the remaining upside potential between now and next Thursday is with the tories.
There is still mileage in scaring the English horses with the SNP, although they need to be careful not to overdo this as there will be a point where it turns the electorate off. The great thing about this policy for the tories is that is potentially grabs votes from all parties south of the border thereby reducing their share at the same time.
The voter registration issue is sure to play a part. I see this affecting younger people and people not previously engaged in politics. This hurts LAB, GREEN and maybe UKIP
There may also still be a little traction in the "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed", meme, to extract a few more tory leaning UKIP voters.
I would tend to agree with most of that. The scaring of the English voters with the SNP is a surefire vote winner, if the Tories play well and mix it up getting the message over that most voters will be better off with them. Yesterday's Express and today's Mail were both themes they can use and gain from. I agree just focusing on Scotland would be too much.
Over the border into enemy Notts territory at the weekend to accept Ms Soubry's kind invitation to help with the cause. All the noises are very positive, I will report back on Amber Valley and Broxtowe Monday.
I feel much more positive for the Conservatives than I did this time last week, they seem to have got their act together after an awful previous week. Major obstacles still to overcome, I still don't have trust they will pitch the campaign to optimum effect and Mr Farage and UKIP are a huge threat, Far looks pretty confident and bullish to me and the current horrible main use won't harm him politically, far from it.
So if the migrants are from Libya they are Dave's fault any Iraqi's, Syrians or Somalians on the boats are surely Labour's fault then ?
Just checking.
Incredible lack of understanding
Of course we are training military soldiers down the road from me at Bassingbourn - but they have all been confined to barracks after a string of male on male sexual assualts...
A pretty big story coming out from Edinburgh. The ugly face of nationalism
"NICOLA Sturgeon has refused to sack the SNP’s Edinburgh South candidate Neil Hay after he was unmasked as a cybernat who likened pro-UK supporters to Nazi collaborators and said elderly voters could “barely remember their own names”.
I pointed out to you yesterday that that collaborator tweet was a reference to a satirical website - though neither were in particularly good taste. And linked you to an analysis which raised serious issues about Kezia Dugdale and SLAB's good faith in such matters.
Whinge frae Bath yet again, any reputable refutation sources? What about a quote from Alec Salmond?: “Obviously it is the right thing that somebody who insulted all of Scotland’s old age pensioners can’t stand as a candidate.”
I see that the supposedly offensive-to-OAPs tweets by the candidate (not that he was a candidate then, years back, I assume) were actually
(1) a complaint that he was told he was unfit to vote - with a fairly ironic comment that some old folk were allowed to vote even if non compos (2) a remark which would be unexceptionable in any discussion on PB, especially in view of the recent surveys of SLAB demographics: “The generation who vote the same way because they always have done are dying off.”
And that comment by Mr Salmond was back in 2010 about a Labour activist who was going on about 'coffin dodgers'.
But what is much more disturbing is the collusion between SLAB and the media to pick out and attack on pretty thin grounds even where SLAB is on such weak ground, as FMQ showed. All part of the media narrative. And a media which is very keen to go all out on one side. I wouldn't mind a balanced media - in fact I would love it - but we don't have it.
UNS is still an important predictor but it's now the all about the marginals and specifically the Con-Lab marginals.Lord Ashcroft's poll is the one to watch.
My overall assessment of the polls is that CON are in the region of 2% ahead. I place more value in phone polls more than online ones.
I think most the remaining upside potential between now and next Thursday is with the tories.
There is still mileage in scaring the English horses with the SNP, although they need to be careful not to overdo this as there will be a point where it turns the electorate off. The great thing about this policy for the tories is that is potentially grabs votes from all parties south of the border thereby reducing their share at the same time.
The voter registration issue is sure to play a part. I see this affecting younger people and people not previously engaged in politics. This hurts LAB, GREEN and maybe UKIP
There may also still be a little traction in the "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed", meme, to extract a few more tory leaning UKIP voters.
I would tend to agree with most of that. The scaring of the English voters with the SNP is a surefire vote winner, if the Tories play well and mix it up getting the message over that most voters will be better off with them. Yesterday's Express and today's Mail were both themes they can use and gain from. I agree just focusing on Scotland would be too much.
Over the border into enemy Notts territory at the weekend to accept Ms Soubry's kind invitation to help with the cause. All the noises are very positive, I will report back on Amber Valley and Broxtowe Monday.
I feel much more positive for the Conservatives than I did this time last week, they seem to have got their act together after an awful previous week. Major obstacles still to overcome, I still don't have trust they will pitch the campaign to optimum effect and Mr Farage and UKIP are a huge threat, Far looks pretty confident and bullish to me and the current horrible main use won't harm him politically, far from it.
Looks like Cameron was right to get the debates out of the way early and allow the Tory finances to have more effect.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·2 mins2 minutes ago @David_Cameron synthetic fury re @Ed_Miliband speech evidence of 1 lack of strategy 2 blindness to his and EU failings re Med and Libya
It's all a bit murky. Mr Mackinlay was actually a member of Ukip before defecting to the Tories in 2005. The couple set up the Angolmelo.com website, which is said to translates roughly as "work in England" in 2008. The web address was renewed in October 2014.
Bit embarrassing for the Tories, given star Boris Johnson was canvassing with Mr Mackinlay only this week.'
It's only embarrassing if you are a racist who hates Eastern Europeans en masse.
I am still hoping that in all seats UKIP have a shout, the anti-UKIP vote will find a candidate of any other party to support.
What a load of rubbish, your head in the sand attitude is the cause of the disquiet
You'll be left hoping. Seems you are as clueless on that as you are wilfully naive on immigration
OK
Any advice how I should tell my son his Polish friend in his class needs to be sent home if you lot win?
Trouble with UKIP is that I am hugely Eurosceptic, but you lot have totally toxified that argument by associating it with BNP-lite attitudes. You have shot yourselves in the foot so badly you have no toes left
Record levels of support and about to get their best election result by any measurement
Georgie Best where did it all go wrong?
You're good at writing fiction it seems from your posts, so be inventive regarding your sons friend
No need for invention, I will just tell him (then) that a depressingly large proportion of the population are still apparently (at best) closet racists. But that not to worry, they will mainly all be dead in 25 years time.
Societies change. Not all that long ago we didn't let women vote - no more. More recently homosexuality was a crime - no more. There are sadly still people who judge strangers based on their ethnicity.
In some pb.com of the future my son will hopefully be able to finish a similar post with "no more".
Not yet it seems. But one day, then we can get back to debating important matters.
Firstly the depth of corruption in our political, police and prosecution systems. Corruption not by bribery but of looking the other way when it is politically convenient to so do.
Secondly, in allowing the immigration - often unchecked for political purposes (votes) - of people from countries where political, legal and police corruption is the normal way of life rather than the exception.
Thirdly the failure to enforce the same law (and not to allow any other laws) for all people regardless of rank, nation or creed.
It all these had been enforced by our politicians and police - without fear or favour - then the chances of Rotherham, Rochdale and Oxford etc occurring would have been minimised. Unfortunately, by their silence on these subjects during this pre-election period, I do not see any of our leaders looking at these important matters and correcting such inaction.
Well said. Labour's open-door enthusiasm for immigration was fuelled by the desire for votes, particularly in the early stages. We have unfortunately encouraged people with very small or zero respect for civil society as we know it to colonise large areas of our nation and allowed them to think that they can continue their traditions here and displace the existing culture.
A pretty big story coming out from Edinburgh. The ugly face of nationalism
"NICOLA Sturgeon has refused to sack the SNP’s Edinburgh South candidate Neil Hay after he was unmasked as a cybernat who likened pro-UK supporters to Nazi collaborators and said elderly voters could “barely remember their own names”.
I pointed out to you yesterday that that collaborator tweet was a reference to a satirical website - though neither were in particularly good taste. And linked you to an analysis which raised serious issues about Kezia Dugdale and SLAB's good faith in such matters.
I find it incredible that various Nats on here use that site as some sort of basis for any sane argument. Given the blogger's views on topics such as Hillsborough and 9/11 etc. I very much doubt anyone outside the cult is going to anywhere near it..
A regular poster replied to one of my initial postings on this site - PB - by presenting evidence that Celtic fans were a bunch of mass Nazi-saluting types.
(Come to think of it, was it you who posted that? I can't remember. Apologies if not.)
Not me - and I'd say apart from a couple of bammers who got into trouble at a match in Israel then that isn't true - well not since the end of WW2.
The pro-republican element have a similar blogger who has obtained similar messiah status - a failed social worker who fled to Ireland - full of similar "facts" and "sources" but lasted just 2 days when a proper newspaper signed him up and was binned in disgrace.
Surprised the National haven't signed the Reverend up - seems a perfect match ?
Thanks, wasn't at all sure it was you, but wondered because of your interest IIRC in GRFC. The Celtic heiling en masse was actually perfectly true - but the news report had been clipped by the poster. It was in fact intended fully ironically, as a reception for one of their stars who had helped defeat Nazi Germany in an international ca. 1935.
Your ironic reference to "facts" and "sources" ... the point is that he specialises in using OPPOSITION or neutral facts and sources where possible to make his points ...
The National have Wee Ginger Dug, Burdseye and occasionally Lallans Peat Worrier already, as it happens, so perhaps they feel they have enough!
So it is a good idea that some rich bankers live and pay personal and corporations tax elsewhere, therefore increasing the tax burden on the rest of us.
This could only come from a left winger. Only the left could come up with the problem of relative poverty. The answer being if you expel the 10000 richest people then the statistic is improved. It doesn't actually solve any problems for someone who is poor but they don't have to exist in proximity to billionaires so they should feel a lot better
I met the next tory MP for S Cambs last night. Heidi Allen is an attractive, bright sparky girl.
I asked her afterwards if she would be joining BOO. She said she would wait to see how DC's 're-negotiations' panned out. I never knew that anybody really believe in them. I thought everybody knew they were spurious? Maybe she was she just being a cautious new girl?
I told her that her opinion would matter, seeing as she had a proper job, and was running a proper business. Her reply surprised me. "Other people have said something similar. It really isn't a very big business" (modest subtext: I'm not that clever). I told her that she underestimated how few of her new colleagues had ever had a proper job.
One of the things I was hoping to see from UKIP was a different class of MPs. Lots of small business owners/self-employed people. Their Castle Point candidate fits that description, their Thurrock candidate doesn't.
Conservative draw the bulk of their councillors from small business owners/ self employed people, or those who were, and have since retired. For Labour ive noticed the relentless growth of union conveners. Whilst it is true that traditionally Labour has drawn heavily from the public sector/ former nationalised industries, now it seems to also include professional charity workers who do work on behalf of public sector, with the bulk of those actually actively being conveners.
A council i have the occasional interaction with, just short of thirty labour councillors. Only one of them works outside of the public sector (though, some of the retired ones, had before they retired), and he runs a fast food establishment.
A pretty big story coming out from Edinburgh. The ugly face of nationalism
"NICOLA Sturgeon has refused to sack the SNP’s Edinburgh South candidate Neil Hay after he was unmasked as a cybernat who likened pro-UK supporters to Nazi collaborators and said elderly voters could “barely remember their own names”.
I pointed out to you yesterday that that collaborator tweet was a reference to a satirical website - though neither were in particularly good taste. And linked you to an analysis which raised serious issues about Kezia Dugdale and SLAB's good faith in such matters.
I find it incredible that various Nats on here use that site as some sort of basis for any sane argument. Given the blogger's views on topics such as Hillsborough and 9/11 etc. I very much doubt anyone outside the cult is going to anywhere near it..
A regular poster replied to one of my initial postings on this site - PB - by presenting evidence that Celtic fans were a bunch of mass Nazi-saluting types.
(Come to think of it, was it you who posted that? I can't remember. Apologies if not.)
Not me - and I'd say apart from a couple of bammers who got into trouble at a match in Israel then that isn't true - well not since the end of WW2.
The pro-republican element have a similar blogger who has obtained similar messiah status - a failed social worker who fled to Ireland - full of similar "facts" and "sources" but lasted just 2 days when a proper newspaper signed him up and was binned in disgrace.
Surprised the National haven't signed the Reverend up - seems a perfect match ?
The National have Wee Ginger Dug, Burdseye and occasionally Lallans Peat Worrier already, as it happens, so perhaps they feel they have enough!
Don't forget Lesley Riddoch - a Pulitzer can't be far off for her..
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·2 mins2 minutes ago @David_Cameron synthetic fury re @Ed_Miliband speech evidence of 1 lack of strategy 2 blindness to his and EU failings re Med and Libya
"I pointed out to you yesterday that that collaborator tweet was a reference to a satirical website - though neither were in particularly good taste. And linked you to an analysis which raised serious issues about Kezia Dugdale and SLAB's good faith in such matters.
Thanks for that. I've just read your link to Wings over Scotland. Why did Mr Hay apologise and why did Nicola Sturgeon say she accepted his apology if the story was untrue? Also the site is an SNP propaganda site which is an odd way of refuting a story
Because it's politics. Also because they were genuinely silly and tactless, at least for someone who later (?) found himself a candidate, so right to apologise - I think so. Doesn't mean (a) they bear the full weight placed on them by the Scotsman and Ms Dugdale, or (b) that there aren't other folk with more serious issues.
It's all a bit murky. Mr Mackinlay was actually a member of Ukip before defecting to the Tories in 2005. The couple set up the Angolmelo.com website, which is said to translates roughly as "work in England" in 2008. The web address was renewed in October 2014.
Bit embarrassing for the Tories, given star Boris Johnson was canvassing with Mr Mackinlay only this week.'
It's only embarrassing if you are a racist who hates Eastern Europeans en masse.
I am still hoping that in all seats UKIP have a shout, the anti-UKIP vote will find a candidate of any other party to support.
What a load of rubbish, your head in the sand attitude is the cause of the disquiet
You'll be left hoping. Seems you are as clueless on that as you are wilfully naive on immigration
OK
Any advice how I should tell my son his Polish friend in his class needs to be sent home if you lot win?
Trouble with UKIP is that I am hugely Eurosceptic, but you lot have totally toxified that argument by associating it with BNP-lite attitudes. You have shot yourselves in the foot so badly you have no toes left
Record levels of support and about to get their best election result by any measurement
Georgie Best where did it all go wrong?
You're good at writing fiction it seems from your posts, so be inventive regarding your sons friend
No need for invention, I will just tell him (then) that a depressingly large proportion of the population are still apparently (at best) closet racists. But that not to worry, they will mainly all be dead in 25 years time.
Societies change. Not all that long ago we didn't let women vote - no more. More recently homosexuality was a crime - no more. There are sadly still people who judge strangers based on their ethnicity.
In some pb.com of the future my son will hopefully be able to finish a similar post with "no more".
Not yet it seems. But one day, then we can get back to debating important matters.
"One economic uncertainty stands out, that of continuing UK membership of the EU. In February we published a major research study which concluded that working to complete the Single Market in services and reforming the EU to make it more competitive were far less risky than going it alone, given the importance of EU markets to British trade."
I guess they're concerned by different policies to you...
A pretty big story coming out from Edinburgh. The ugly face of nationalism
"NICOLA Sturgeon has refused to sack the SNP’s Edinburgh South candidate Neil Hay after he was unmasked as a cybernat who likened pro-UK supporters to Nazi collaborators and said elderly voters could “barely remember their own names”.
I pointed out to you yesterday that that collaborator tweet was a reference to a satirical website - though neither were in particularly good taste. And linked you to an analysis which raised serious issues about Kezia Dugdale and SLAB's good faith in such matters.
I find it incredible that various Nats on here use that site as some sort of basis for any sane argument. Given the blogger's views on topics such as Hillsborough and 9/11 etc. I very much doubt anyone outside the cult is going to anywhere near it..
A regular poster replied to one of my initial postings on this site - PB - by presenting evidence that Celtic fans were a bunch of mass Nazi-saluting types.
(Come to think of it, was it you who posted that? I can't remember. Apologies if not.)
Not me - and I'd say apart from a couple of bammers who got into trouble at a match in Israel then that isn't true - well not since the end of WW2.
The pro-republican element have a similar blogger who has obtained similar messiah status - a failed social worker who fled to Ireland - full of similar "facts" and "sources" but lasted just 2 days when a proper newspaper signed him up and was binned in disgrace.
Surprised the National haven't signed the Reverend up - seems a perfect match ?
The National have Wee Ginger Dug, Burdseye and occasionally Lallans Peat Worrier already, as it happens, so perhaps they feel they have enough!
Don't forget Lesley Riddoch - a Pulitzer can't be far off for her..
Oh yes, of course, but she was already a mainstream journo - I was thinking more of bloggers moving into the MSM.
How long do you think the Scotsman will survive, by the way?
There have beenv17 YG polls since their change of methodology (startin with their poll published on April 8) and the most noticeable change has been with 2010 Lds. In March they were retaining more than losing to Labour and since the change this has in general sharply reversed.
Also, prior to the change, the Tory share was 35 to 37 points and this immediately dropped by 2 to 3 points after the change.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·2 mins2 minutes ago @David_Cameron synthetic fury re @Ed_Miliband speech evidence of 1 lack of strategy 2 blindness to his and EU failings re Med and Libya
Forgot about Iraq, Al?
Unbelievable! Campbell should be castigated daily for ever and ever for his malign influence on our country, politics and morals.
So if the migrants are from Libya they are Dave's fault any Iraqi's, Syrians or Somalians on the boats are surely Labour's fault then ?
Just checking.
Incredible lack of understanding
Of course we are training military soldiers down the road from me at Bassingbourn - but they have all been confined to barracks after a string of male on male sexual assualts...
Just stick to saying peak kipper after the event I reckon
A regular poster replied to one of my initial postings on this site - PB - by presenting evidence that Celtic fans were a bunch of mass Nazi-saluting types.
(Come to think of it, was it you who posted that? I can't remember. Apologies if not.)
But that was - I hope - meant fully in irony/satire, as I thought at the time (though deliberately concealed in the hope I'd fall for it).
I've had a look back in the light of your specific remarks, nevertheless. The Wings 9/11 comment was very plainly ironic - and very obviously so. Even his least best Twitterfriend Duncan Hothershall of SLAB had to go on Twitter to agree. And as far as Hillsborough was concerned his remarks seem accurate enough - that members of the crowd itself had caused the deaths by its pushing from the back - but that the police and the coverup had also to be severely criticised. If you run a check for Hillsborough on his site you'll find some interesting stuff, not least that he's had a retraction, apology and damages for similar accusations from newspapers.
However, the much more important point which JPJ2 also made is that you don't actually need to worry about his opinions. He is so careful to present and document the evidence, very often from opposition sources - which is why I sometimes link to his site though I know that some on here can't bear it.
Campbell's comments on Hillsborough are idiotic, properly stupid. They are based on him trying to equate a crowd at a music gig with the crush that developed at Hillsborough and assuming the dynamics are the same, which they are not. For the individuals in the crowd to take the action he wanted them to take they would have to have been psychic. His view is also fundamentally illogical - that the crush was formed by fans pushing one another and that it would have been stopped if only the fans had pushed one another.
None of which has any bearing on the fact that he has correctly pointed out that Kezia Dugdale is an enormous hypocrite of gargantuan proportions.
It's all a bit murky. Mr Mackinlay was actually a member of Ukip before defecting to the Tories in 2005. The couple set up the Angolmelo.com website, which is said to translates roughly as "work in England" in 2008. The web address was renewed in October 2014.
Bit embarrassing for the Tories, given star Boris Johnson was canvassing with Mr Mackinlay only this week.'
It's only embarrassing if you are a racist who hates Eastern Europeans en masse.
I am still hoping that in all seats UKIP have a shout, the anti-UKIP vote will find a candidate of any other party to support.
What a load of rubbish, your head in the sand attitude is the cause of the disquiet
You'll be left hoping. Seems you are as clueless on that as you are wilfully naive on immigration
OK
Any advice how I should tell my son his Polish friend in his class needs to be sent home if you lot win?
Trouble with UKIP is that I am hugely Eurosceptic, but you lot have totally toxified that argument by associating it with BNP-lite attitudes. You have shot yourselves in the foot so badly you have no toes left
Record levels of support and about to get their best election result by any measurement
Georgie Best where did it all go wrong?
You're good at writing fiction it seems from your posts, so be inventive regarding your sons friend
No need for invention, I will just tell him (then) that a depressingly large proportion of the population are still apparently (at best) closet racists. But that not to worry, they will mainly all be dead in 25 years time.
Societies change. Not all that long ago we didn't let women vote - no more. More recently homosexuality was a crime - no more. There are sadly still people who judge strangers based on their ethnicity.
In some pb.com of the future my son will hopefully be able to finish a similar post with "no more".
Not yet it seems. But one day, then we can get back to debating important matters.
Anyway, i'm not sure much will change between now and the election, although Labour have been doing their best this week to lose the election even more.
The Tories will win the popular vote by circa 5% and will be maybe 15 seats ahead of Labour but unable to form a majority coalition with the Lib Dems. But the only story people will wake up to on 8 May is Labour being wiped out in Scotland and trying to cobble together a coalition of the losers to prise Cameron out of Downing Street.
Further re market moves think M Smithsons right about this. Heres a rationale. YG you can explain by stale polling panel & evidence for v little churn. The three 4% ers are much harder to dismiss. Sometimes good to step into diff shoes: whose would you rather be in right now? Labour or Tories? Marginally tories I think. we cld be seeing a small move. Polls today through weekend should be a marker.
It's all a bit murky. Mr Mackinlay was actually a member of Ukip before defecting to the Tories in 2005. The couple set up the Angolmelo.com website, which is said to translates roughly as "work in England" in 2008. The web address was renewed in October 2014.
Bit embarrassing for the Tories, given star Boris Johnson was canvassing with Mr Mackinlay only this week.'
It's only embarrassing if you are a racist who hates Eastern Europeans en masse.
I am still hoping that in all seats UKIP have a shout, the anti-UKIP vote will find a candidate of any other party to support.
What a load of rubbish, your head in the sand attitude is the cause of the disquiet
You'll be left hoping. Seems you are as clueless on that as you are wilfully naive on immigration
OK
Any advice how I should tell my son his Polish friend in his class needs to be sent home if you lot win?
Trouble with UKIP is that I am hugely Eurosceptic, but you lot have totally toxified that argument by associating it with BNP-lite attitudes. You have shot yourselves in the foot so badly you have no toes left
Record levels of support and about to get their best election result by any measurement
Georgie Best where did it all go wrong?
You're good at writing fiction it seems from your posts, so be inventive regarding your sons friend
No need for invention, I will just tell him (then) that a depressingly large proportion of the population are still apparently (at best) closet racists. But that not to worry, they will mainly all be dead in 25 years time.
Societies change. Not all that long ago we didn't let women vote - no more. More recently homosexuality was a crime - no more. There are sadly still people who judge strangers based on their ethnicity.
In some pb.com of the future my son will hopefully be able to finish a similar post with "no more".
Not yet it seems. But one day, then we can get back to debating important matters.
You are the greatest
Just normal actually.
nothing else to say, we're boring people.
Swap 'just' for 'ab' and 'we're' for 'I'm' and you're spot on
My overall assessment of the polls is that CON are in the region of 2% ahead. I place more value in phone polls more than online ones.
I think most the remaining upside potential between now and next Thursday is with the tories.
There is still mileage in scaring the English horses with the SNP, although they need to be careful not to overdo this as there will be a point where it turns the electorate off. The great thing about this policy for the tories is that is potentially grabs votes from all parties south of the border thereby reducing their share at the same time.
The voter registration issue is sure to play a part. I see this affecting younger people and people not previously engaged in politics. This hurts LAB, GREEN and maybe UKIP
There may also still be a little traction in the "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed", meme, to extract a few more tory leaning UKIP voters.
I would tend to agree with most of that. The scaring of the English voters with the SNP is a surefire vote winner, if the Tories play well and mix it up getting the message over that most voters will be better off with them. Yesterday's Express and today's Mail were both themes they can use and gain from. I agree just focusing on Scotland would be too much.
Over the border into enemy Notts territory at the weekend to accept Ms Soubry's kind invitation to help with the cause. All the noises are very positive, I will report back on Amber Valley and Broxtowe Monday.
I feel much more positive for the Conservatives than I did this time last week, they seem to have got their act together after an awful previous week. Major obstacles still to overcome, I still don't have trust they will pitch the campaign to optimum effect and Mr Farage and UKIP are a huge threat, Far looks pretty confident and bullish to me and the current horrible main use won't harm him politically, far from it.
Looks like Cameron was right to get the debates out of the way early and allow the Tory finances to have more effect.
Im reluctantly beginning to admit he's played a blinder on them but not about finances. The budget shouldve given back money to working class people & not banged on about cuts.
My overall assessment of the polls is that CON are in the region of 2% ahead. I place more value in phone polls more than online ones.
I think most the remaining upside potential between now and next Thursday is with the tories.
There is still mileage in scaring the English horses with the SNP, although they need to be careful not to overdo this as there will be a point where it turns the electorate off. The great thing about this policy for the tories is that is potentially grabs votes from all parties south of the border thereby reducing their share at the same time.
The voter registration issue is sure to play a part. I see this affecting younger people and people not previously engaged in politics. This hurts LAB, GREEN and maybe UKIP
There may also still be a little traction in the "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed", meme, to extract a few more tory leaning UKIP voters.
I would tend to agree with most of that. The scaring of the English voters with the SNP is a surefire vote winner, if the Tories play well and mix it up getting the message over that most voters will be better off with them. Yesterday's Express and today's Mail were both themes they can use and gain from. I agree just focusing on Scotland would be too much.
Over the border into enemy Notts territory at the weekend to accept Ms Soubry's kind invitation to help with the cause. All the noises are very positive, I will report back on Amber Valley and Broxtowe Monday.
I feel much more positive for the Conservatives than I did this time last week, they seem to have got their act together after an awful previous week. Major obstacles still to overcome, I still don't have trust they will pitch the campaign to optimum effect and Mr Farage and UKIP are a huge threat, Far looks pretty confident and bullish to me and the current horrible main use won't harm him politically, far from it.
Don't forget to shake my near namesake warmly by the throat hand should you encounter him on your Broxtowe travels. COYR!
A regular poster replied to one of my initial postings on this site - PB - by presenting evidence that Celtic fans were a bunch of mass Nazi-saluting types.
(Come to think of it, was it you who posted that? I can't remember. Apologies if not.)
But that was - I hope - meant fully in irony/satire, as I thought at the time (though deliberately concealed in the hope I'd fall for it).
I've had a look back in the light of your specific remarks, nevertheless. The Wings 9/11 comment was very plainly ironic - and very obviously so. Even his least best Twitterfriend Duncan Hothershall of SLAB had to go on Twitter to agree. And as far as Hillsborough was concerned his remarks seem accurate enough - that members of the crowd itself had caused the deaths by its pushing from the back - but that the police and the coverup had also to be severely criticised. If you run a check for Hillsborough on his site you'll find some interesting stuff, not least that he's had a retraction, apology and damages for similar accusations from newspapers.
However, the much more important point which JPJ2 also made is that you don't actually need to worry about his opinions. He is so careful to present and document the evidence, very often from opposition sources - which is why I sometimes link to his site though I know that some on here can't bear it.
Campbell's comments on Hillsborough are idiotic, properly stupid. They are based on him trying to equate a crowd at a music gig with the crush that developed at Hillsborough and assuming the dynamics are the same, which they are not. For the individuals in the crowd to take the action he wanted them to take they would have to have been psychic. His view is also fundamentally illogical - that the crush was formed by fans pushing one another and that it would have been stopped if only the fans had pushed one another.
None of which has any bearing on the fact that he has correctly pointed out that Kezia Dugdale is an enormous hypocrite of gargantuan proportions.
Maybe pointless to ask this with an election campaign on and everybody in partisan bullshit mode but non-sarcastically, does anyone have any idea what things like "provide better support" and "post-conflict planning" would have meant in practice?
My overall assessment of the polls is that CON are in the region of 2% ahead. I place more value in phone polls more than online ones.
I think most the remaining upside potential between now and next Thursday is with the tories.
There is still mileage in scaring the English horses with the SNP, although they need to be careful not to overdo this as there will be a point where it turns the electorate off. The great thing about this policy for the tories is that is potentially grabs votes from all parties south of the border thereby reducing their share at the same time.
The voter registration issue is sure to play a part. I see this affecting younger people and people not previously engaged in politics. This hurts LAB, GREEN and maybe UKIP
There may also still be a little traction in the "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed", meme, to extract a few more tory leaning UKIP voters.
I would tend to agree with most of that. The scaring of the English voters with the SNP is a surefire vote winner, if the Tories play well and mix it up getting the message over that most voters will be better off with them. Yesterday's Express and today's Mail were both themes they can use and gain from. I agree just focusing on Scotland would be too much.
Over the border into enemy Notts territory at the weekend to accept Ms Soubry's kind invitation to help with the cause. All the noises are very positive, I will report back on Amber Valley and Broxtowe Monday.
I feel much more positive for the Conservatives than I did this time last week, they seem to have got their act together after an awful previous week. Major obstacles still to overcome, I still don't have trust they will pitch the campaign to optimum effect and Mr Farage and UKIP are a huge threat, Far looks pretty confident and bullish to me and the current horrible main use won't harm him politically, far from it.
Don't forget to shake my near namesake warmly by the throat hand should you encounter him on your Broxtowe travels. COYR!
Try to avoid any contact with the 'ghastly Labour droner'.
labour seats in scotland betting suggests maybe 6 seats in total. but I can only find them as favourites in one seat (glasgow ne). makes me think that maybe labour are too big in some of the other seats. now i just have the find the right ones. or is it the 6/4 less than 5 seats that;s the value.......
Maybe pointless to ask this with an election campaign on and everybody in partisan bullshit mode but non-sarcastically, does anyone have any idea what things like "provide better support" and "post-conflict planning" would have meant in practice?
My overall assessment of the polls is that CON are in the region of 2% ahead. I place more value in phone polls more than online ones.
I think most the remaining upside potential between now and next Thursday is with the tories.
There is still mileage in scaring the English horses with the SNP, although they need to be careful not to overdo this as there will be a point where it turns the electorate off. The great thing about this policy for the tories is that is potentially grabs votes from all parties south of the border thereby reducing their share at the same time.
The voter registration issue is sure to play a part. I see this affecting younger people and people not previously engaged in politics. This hurts LAB, GREEN and maybe UKIP
There may also still be a little traction in the "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed", meme, to extract a few more tory leaning UKIP voters.
I would tend to agree with most of that. The scaring of the English voters with the SNP is a surefire vote winner, if the Tories play well and mix it up getting the message over that most voters will be better off with them. Yesterday's Express and today's Mail were both themes they can use and gain from. I agree just focusing on Scotland would be too much.
Over the border into enemy Notts territory at the weekend to accept Ms Soubry's kind invitation to help with the cause. All the noises are very positive, I will report back on Amber Valley and Broxtowe Monday.
I feel much more positive for the Conservatives than I did this time last week, they seem to have got their act together after an awful previous week. Major obstacles still to overcome, I still don't have trust they will pitch the campaign to optimum effect and Mr Farage and UKIP are a huge threat, Far looks pretty confident and bullish to me and the current horrible main use won't harm him politically, far from it.
Looks like Cameron was right to get the debates out of the way early and allow the Tory finances to have more effect.
Im reluctantly beginning to admit he's played a blinder on them but not about finances. The budget shouldve given back money to working class people & not banged on about cuts.
Not a chance the Lib Dems would have allowed that.
Maybe pointless to ask this with an election campaign on and everybody in partisan bullshit mode but non-sarcastically, does anyone have any idea what things like "provide better support" and "post-conflict planning" would have meant in practice?
I'd like to say foreign policy never plays big in general elections but Falklands 1983 and Iraq 2005 call the lie to that.
It's all a bit murky. Mr Mackinlay was actually a member of Ukip before defecting to the Tories in 2005. The couple set up the Angolmelo.com website, which is said to translates roughly as "work in England" in 2008. The web address was renewed in October 2014.
Bit embarrassing for the Tories, given star Boris Johnson was canvassing with Mr Mackinlay only this week.'
It's only embarrassing if you are a racist who hates Eastern Europeans en masse.
I am still hoping that in all seats UKIP have a shout, the anti-UKIP vote will find a candidate of any other party to support.
What a load of rubbish, your head in the sand attitude is the cause of the disquiet
You'll be left hoping. Seems you are as clueless on that as you are wilfully naive on immigration
OK
Any advice how I should tell my son his Polish friend in his class needs to be sent home if you lot win?
Trouble with UKIP is that I am hugely Eurosceptic, but you lot have totally toxified that argument by associating it with BNP-lite attitudes. You have shot yourselves in the foot so badly you have no toes left
Record levels of support and about to get their best election result by any measurement
Georgie Best where did it all go wrong?
You're good at writing fiction it seems from your posts, so be inventive regarding your sons friend
No need for invention, I will just tell him (then) that a depressingly large proportion of the population are still apparently (at best) closet racists. But that not to worry, they will mainly all be dead in 25 years time.
Societies change. Not all that long ago we didn't let women vote - no more. More recently homosexuality was a crime - no more. There are sadly still people who judge strangers based on their ethnicity.
In some pb.com of the future my son will hopefully be able to finish a similar post with "no more".
Not yet it seems. But one day, then we can get back to debating important matters.
You are the greatest
Just normal actually.
nothing else to say, we're boring people.
Swap 'just' for 'ab' and 'we're' for 'I'm' and you're spot on
That's the way to win an argument. Definitely came out on top with that...
Maybe pointless to ask this with an election campaign on and everybody in partisan bullshit mode but non-sarcastically, does anyone have any idea what things like "provide better support" and "post-conflict planning" would have meant in practice?
Off topic, but can someone explain why it "took four local individuals in this case to risk a legal bill of hundreds of thousands of pounds to get this election overturned"?
The Labour party or any other party refused to get involved. Nor did the Electoral Commission nor the police The relevant legislation provides an opportunity for an individual to do it and the Judge (a) commented on their bravery and persistence; and (b) made suggestions for improving the law.
Bluntly, the big boys were frit. It took 4 Davids to fell the Goliath.
@smarmeron That would the famous right winger Gordon Brown with balls and Miliband who devised the tripartite banking regulation / supervision. The problem of th right is that they care too much about their own wealth to see things from a normal persons perspective.
I am a centrist. If chasing all bankers and successful people out of the country means we all (those remaining) have to pay more tax and have less public services then I don't agree.
I also think that the treasury should do more predictive modelling on taxes and also release report on prediction and post action review. For example if raising top rate of tax to 50p in the pound actually means we get a negligible amount more tax income then what is the point. I am never going to earn that kind of money but I don't see the point in penalizing those that do.
Maybe pointless to ask this with an election campaign on and everybody in partisan bullshit mode but non-sarcastically, does anyone have any idea what things like "provide better support" and "post-conflict planning" would have meant in practice?
The normal inference of "post-conflict planning" is "Boots on the Ground" - which we all know Milliband would have not supported. That is the only way of delivering a plan in a dysfunctional state. Often it fails, but it can be better than nothing.
Milliband is hypocritical to criticise something he would have opposed not happening.
I've been looking at the Survation poll for Thanet and comparing it with those for the Clacton and Rochester by-elections. Survation overestimated the UKIP victory margin in both cases, however in both Rochester & Clacton they were spot on with the Kipper margin of victory when using the 'likely to vote' table. This bodes well for Nigel as he's 7% ahead in that respect. You'd also assume the undecideds might split between Tory/Lab rather than largely head towards the Tories as they did in the 2 horse races of Clacton & Rochester.
Anyway judging by Ashcroft's tweet last night we may be seeing more marginal polling today, another Thanet South poll to clear things up/muddy the waters perhaps!
Ed's going after Libya? A bold move. I guess given his stance on Syria - or rather what he has been presenting as his stance over Syria, which is one of the few instances I feel comfortable suggesting a politician is bending the truth very directly - he feels the whole area of foreign affairs is weak enough for Cameron that he can risk it.
Maybe pointless to ask this with an election campaign on and everybody in partisan bullshit mode but non-sarcastically, does anyone have any idea what things like "provide better support" and "post-conflict planning" would have meant in practice?
I don't think anyone does. Words like that are pretty meaningless without specifics. I'm sure its hard to be more specific in fairness,p these are hugely complex issues, but without that, they're just buzz words. Might as well say we need to proceed with synergistic dynamism.
I wonder if we could quantify how useful all these polls are to punters. In any case It doesn't take a guru to suggest that it has more to do with the current psychology of the betting markets than it does to the outcome, with respect to which all these polls can indeed be termed "outliers".
Maybe pointless to ask this with an election campaign on and everybody in partisan bullshit mode but non-sarcastically, does anyone have any idea what things like "provide better support" and "post-conflict planning" would have meant in practice?
I'd like to say foreign policy never plays big in general elections but Falklands 1983 and Iraq 2005 call the lie to that.
Did Iraq make a huge impact upon 2005? the lib dems only put on 10 seats from 2001.
The "gap" between Conservatives most seats and Ed Miliband PM is now extraordinarily wide.
The correct moves by my maths are to lay Ed Miliband PM and lay Conservatives most seats. It is completely counterintuitive, but Fisher's model - which predicts both 51 SNP MPs and 26 Lib Dems, which is above the spread on SPIN (And is the critical factor in this calculation) has the gap at 22%.
Con seats at 1.38 = 73% probability (A touch high perhaps)
Ed Miliband PM = 1.78 = 55% probability. So NOT Ed (This doesn't neccesarily mean Dave stays on, the field is covered too...) = 45% probability.
The gap of 28% is too large. To get there the SNP have to do the mainland sweep and Lib Dems reduced below 20.
I've laid off a touch of Ed, though I am still long on him to improve my odds and I'm leaving my Seats position as I need it skewed to Labour to counteract my mainly Tory constituency bets.
But the Ed PM/Tory seats gap is slightly too large right now.
Swap 'just' for 'ab' and 'we're' for 'I'm' and you're spot onThat's the way to win an argument. Definitely came out on top with that...
I suspect it may not be worth further posts on the subject! A 0-0 draw with both sides claiming a win, like almost all internet forum arguments. Will i never learn
Edit: (Also I can't learn how to selectively quote it seems)
Brave call from Damian Lyons Lowe in the Express. Good on him for backing his methodology, but it strikes me as an unnecessary risk to the business to go out on quite such a limb.
Presumably Ed Miliband's comments on Libya are intended to move the conversation on from the SNP. I agree with the thrust of these comments, but wouldn't it have been better for the remarks to be made by Douglas Alexander (in more intemperate terms) if this was the aim? When playing chess, the king should be deployed with care; better to put a piece in peril that you can afford to lose, especially one that is already en prise.
I wouldn't have thought anyone would have reported a speech by Douglas Alexander, would they?
Hence my point about more intemperate terms. No one had ever heard of Michael Fallon, but he managed to move the conversation on from non-doms.
@smarmeron That would the famous right winger Gordon Brown with balls and Miliband who devised the tripartite banking regulation / supervision. The problem of th right is that they care too much about their own wealth to see things from a normal persons perspective.
I am a centrist. If chasing all bankers and successful people out of the country means we all (those remaining) have to pay more tax and have less public services then I don't agree.
I also think that the treasury should do more predictive modelling on taxes and also release report on prediction and post action review. For example if raising top rate of tax to 50p in the pound actually means we get a negligible amount more tax income then what is the point. I am never going to earn that kind of money but I don't see the point in penalizing those that do.
I expect burglars claim to "earn" their money, too. Try thinking before you post.
I'd long been of the opinion that Miliband is an opportunistic, conniving, untrustworthy, two-faced shit, but I've still been taken aback by the unbelieeeevable front in trying to pin migrant drownings on Cameron. Quite, quite astonishing.
My overall assessment of the polls is that CON are in the region of 2% ahead. I place more value in phone polls more than online ones.
I think most the remaining upside potential between now and next Thursday is with the tories.
There is still mileage in scaring the English horses with the SNP, although they need to be careful not to overdo this as there will be a point where it turns the electorate off. The great thing about this policy for the tories is that is potentially grabs votes from all parties south of the border thereby reducing their share at the same time.
The voter registration issue is sure to play a part. I see this affecting younger people and people not previously engaged in politics. This hurts LAB, GREEN and maybe UKIP
There may also still be a little traction in the "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed", meme, to extract a few more tory leaning UKIP voters.
I would tend to agree with most of that. The scaring of the English voters with the SNP is a surefire vote winner, if the Tories play well and mix it up getting the message over that most voters will be better off with them. Yesterday's Express and today's Mail were both themes they can use and gain from. I agree just focusing on Scotland would be too much.
Over the border into enemy Notts territory at the weekend to accept Ms Soubry's kind invitation to help with the cause. All the noises are very positive, I will report back on Amber Valley and Broxtowe Monday.
I feel much more positive for the Conservatives than I did this time last week, they seem to have got their act together after an awful previous week. Major obstacles still to overcome, I still don't have trust they will pitch the campaign to optimum effect and Mr Farage and UKIP are a huge threat, Far looks pretty confident and bullish to me and the current horrible main use won't harm him politically, far from it.
Don't forget to shake my near namesake warmly by the throat hand should you encounter him on your Broxtowe travels. COYR!
Probably unlikely, whisper it quietly but all the evidence suggests the two heavyweights in this fight see this as a grudge re-match. No love lost I am told.
It would be nice to meet Nick, very few who have reached the level in politics he has would wish to come on here and talk, it would be beneath them. For that he has my respect.
Personally I think the general opinion of the GBP is that the middle east is such a sh*thole/basket case that no matter what you do it's not going to make things either better or worse....
No one wants to see migrants drowning, but no one wants them either, at least in the numbers coming.
I've been looking at the Survation poll for Thanet and comparing it with those for the Clacton and Rochester by-elections. Survation overestimated the UKIP victory margin in both cases, however in both Rochester & Clacton they were spot on with the Kipper margin of victory when using the 'likely to vote' table. This bodes well for Nigel as he's 7% ahead in that respect. You'd also assume the undecideds might split between Tory/Lab rather than largely head towards the Tories as they did in the 2 horse races of Clacton & Rochester.
Anyway judging by Ashcroft's tweet last night we may be seeing more marginal polling today, another Thanet South poll to clear things up/muddy the waters perhaps!
Getting the likelihood to vote very wrong is possibly largely behind the errors in Survation's by-election and EU election polling. Whether it gets corrected by increased turnout or they still include too many 'never-voted' may be key to how accurate they are.
Comments
Re: 1992 Poll; if I remember rightly the exit poll was a stinker too. There was something fundamentally wrong with the polling technique overstating Labour by all pollsters.
The 92 exit poll had a range that turned out shy for the Con score. So that whiffed a tad whereas the media polls were absolute stinkers
@JackW
Thanks for the clarification JackW, the omnipotent sage and all knowing presence, linked somewhere in the atomic structure of pbCOM.
Just checking.
It's going to be interesting to see whether LAB (and not just SLAB) can address it. After the NO victory in the indyref they could have got the bit between their teeth, taken up the issue and run with it, but they didn't have a clue. Completely lacking in imagination and vision. I imagine that even if there's a LAB majority in the GE they will still stay reactive. If there's a hung parliament, they may possibly get their act together, probably just responding to CON, but even so, still actually recognising the London question and the English question and cobbling something together. If there's a CON-LD coalition, which seems to me quite likely, they'll find something to whinge about but are likely to go on being just as vision-free until some changes of personnel up top.
There have beenv17 YG polls since their change of methodology (startin with their poll published on April 8) and the most noticeable change has been with 2010 Lds. In March they were retaining more than losing to Labour and since the change this has in general sharply reversed.
'Londoners planning to vote Ukip in the election are the least proud about their choice, a survey reveals today.
Just 39 per cent of those intending to back Nigel Farage’s party say they would be proud to tell friends or family, says the YouGov poll for the Standard. This contrasts with 58 per cent of Labour supporters — the most proud — 49 per cent of Conservative voters and 45 per cent of Liberal Democrat backers
The poll also showed more Lib-Dem and Ukip supporters were “shy” about telling others of their voting intentions, with eight per cent who favour either party saying this is how they felt.'
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-voting-londoners-least-proud-to-declare-their-political-allegiance-10200421.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3048822/They-cut-head-shoot-Christian-migrants-reveal-fled-Libya-perilous-journey-Med-escape-ISIS.html
Any advice how I should tell my son his Polish friend in his class needs to be sent home if you lot win?
Trouble with UKIP is that I am hugely Eurosceptic, but you lot have totally toxified that argument by associating it with BNP-lite attitudes. You have shot yourselves in the foot so badly you have no toes left
"I pointed out to you yesterday that that collaborator tweet was a reference to a satirical website - though neither were in particularly good taste. And linked you to an analysis which raised serious issues about Kezia Dugdale and SLAB's good faith in such matters.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-serious-case-of-hypocrisy/"
Thanks for that. I've just read your link to Wings over Scotland. Why did Mr Hay apologise and why did Nicola Sturgeon say she accepted his apology if the story was untrue? Also the site is an SNP propaganda site which is an odd way of refuting a story
No so now... who's the main scottish labour guy present, Douglas Alexander?? Lol
"Tried reading the Whinge several times, but found it turgid separatist propaganda and gave up on it. No reason to believe that it's changed. I'm sure I can recommend several blogs to you with a different view that you would consider similar. "
As Carnyx has also pointed out to you, Wings backs up his views by providing evidential links supporting what he says.
If you can find me a unionist website re Scotland with the same forensic approach I will be much impressed-and stunned :-) About as likely as finding a crowd of real voters around Murphy I suspect.
Georgie Best where did it all go wrong?
You're good at writing fiction it seems from your posts, so be inventive regarding your sons friend
The pro-republican element have a similar blogger who has obtained similar messiah status - a failed social worker who fled to Ireland - full of similar "facts" and "sources" but lasted just 2 days when a proper newspaper signed him up and was binned in disgrace.
Surprised the National haven't signed the Reverend up - seems a perfect match ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32443930
Time to de regulate and tax less?
Over the border into enemy Notts territory at the weekend to accept Ms Soubry's kind invitation to help with the cause. All the noises are very positive, I will report back on Amber Valley and Broxtowe Monday.
I feel much more positive for the Conservatives than I did this time last week, they seem to have got their act together after an awful previous week. Major obstacles still to overcome, I still don't have trust they will pitch the campaign to optimum effect and Mr Farage and UKIP are a huge threat, Far looks pretty confident and bullish to me and the current horrible main use won't harm him politically, far from it.
(1) a complaint that he was told he was unfit to vote - with a fairly ironic comment that some old folk were allowed to vote even if non compos
(2) a remark which would be unexceptionable in any discussion on PB, especially in view of the recent surveys of SLAB demographics: “The generation who vote the same way because they always have done are dying off.”
And that comment by Mr Salmond was back in 2010 about a Labour activist who was going on about 'coffin dodgers'.
But what is much more disturbing is the collusion between SLAB and the media to pick out and attack on pretty thin grounds even where SLAB is on such weak ground, as FMQ showed. All part of the media narrative. And a media which is very keen to go all out on one side. I wouldn't mind a balanced media - in fact I would love it - but we don't have it.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·2 mins2 minutes ago
@David_Cameron synthetic fury re @Ed_Miliband speech evidence of 1 lack of strategy 2 blindness to his and EU failings re Med and Libya
Societies change. Not all that long ago we didn't let women vote - no more. More recently homosexuality was a crime - no more. There are sadly still people who judge strangers based on their ethnicity.
In some pb.com of the future my son will hopefully be able to finish a similar post with "no more".
Not yet it seems. But one day, then we can get back to debating important matters.
Your ironic reference to "facts" and "sources" ... the point is that he specialises in using OPPOSITION or neutral facts and sources where possible to make his points ...
The National have Wee Ginger Dug, Burdseye and occasionally Lallans Peat Worrier already, as it happens, so perhaps they feel they have enough!
Iain Martin@iainmartin1·41 secs41 seconds ago
First big slip in this campaign by Miliband, on Libya.
This could only come from a left winger. Only the left could come up with the problem of relative poverty. The answer being if you expel the 10000 richest people then the statistic is improved. It doesn't actually solve any problems for someone who is poor but they don't have to exist in proximity to billionaires so they should feel a lot better
A council i have the occasional interaction with, just short of thirty labour councillors. Only one of them works outside of the public sector (though, some of the retired ones, had before they retired), and he runs a fast food establishment.
"One economic uncertainty stands out, that of continuing UK membership of the EU. In February we published a major research study which concluded that working to complete the Single Market in services and reforming the EU to make it more competitive were far less risky than going it alone, given the importance of EU markets to British trade."
I guess they're concerned by different policies to you...
How long do you think the Scotsman will survive, by the way?
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/08/labour-lead-2/
Only the "Right" could come up with the solution of bending over, and handing the banks the lubricant on demand.
None of which has any bearing on the fact that he has correctly pointed out that Kezia Dugdale is an enormous hypocrite of gargantuan proportions.
nothing else to say, we're boring people.
Anyway, i'm not sure much will change between now and the election, although Labour have been doing their best this week to lose the election even more.
The Tories will win the popular vote by circa 5% and will be maybe 15 seats ahead of Labour but unable to form a majority coalition with the Lib Dems. But the only story people will wake up to on 8 May is Labour being wiped out in Scotland and trying to cobble together a coalition of the losers to prise Cameron out of Downing Street.
Not bad for a "coin toss "...
Cameron: English Manifesto.
Milliband: Cameron caused migrants to drown.
How will they shift views of the Great British Public?
ONS say the 28th.
COYR!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/24/migrant-deaths-miliband-allegation-cameron-libya-mediterranean
Maybe pointless to ask this with an election campaign on and everybody in partisan bullshit mode but non-sarcastically, does anyone have any idea what things like "provide better support" and "post-conflict planning" would have meant in practice?
Oh wait....
Tory source on Med deaths "Few bad polls and Miliband accuses PM of murder. We can see who's running desperate, negative, personal campaign"
Indeed.....
Bluntly, the big boys were frit. It took 4 Davids to fell the Goliath.
That would the famous right winger Gordon Brown with balls and Miliband who devised the tripartite banking regulation / supervision. The problem of th right is that they care too much about their own wealth to see things from a normal persons perspective.
I am a centrist. If chasing all bankers and successful people out of the country means we all (those remaining) have to pay more tax and have less public services then I don't agree.
I also think that the treasury should do more predictive modelling on taxes and also release report on prediction and post action review. For example if raising top rate of tax to 50p in the pound actually means we get a negligible amount more tax income then what is the point. I am never going to earn that kind of money but I don't see the point in penalizing those that do.
Milliband is hypocritical to criticise something he would have opposed not happening.
Anyway judging by Ashcroft's tweet last night we may be seeing more marginal polling today, another Thanet South poll to clear things up/muddy the waters perhaps!
Labour Press Team retweeted
Ian Katz@iankatz1000·5 mins5 minutes ago
Is row over Miliband's Libya attack on Cam another Lynton Crosby "dead cat". @AndrewSparrow's analysis worth a read. http://gu.com/p/47z4v/stw#block-5539f8abe4b0d91953a647e0 …
But do Labour really want to risk opening the lid on the box marked 'Iraq'?
The correct moves by my maths are to lay Ed Miliband PM and lay Conservatives most seats. It is completely counterintuitive, but Fisher's model - which predicts both 51 SNP MPs and 26 Lib Dems, which is above the spread on SPIN (And is the critical factor in this calculation) has the gap at 22%.
Con seats at 1.38 = 73% probability (A touch high perhaps)
Ed Miliband PM = 1.78 = 55% probability. So NOT Ed (This doesn't neccesarily mean Dave stays on, the field is covered too...) = 45% probability.
The gap of 28% is too large. To get there the SNP have to do the mainland sweep and Lib Dems reduced below 20.
I've laid off a touch of Ed, though I am still long on him to improve my odds and I'm leaving my Seats position as I need it skewed to Labour to counteract my mainly Tory constituency bets.
But the Ed PM/Tory seats gap is slightly too large right now.
I suspect it may not be worth further posts on the subject! A 0-0 draw with both sides claiming a win, like almost all internet forum arguments. Will i never learn
Edit: (Also I can't learn how to selectively quote it seems)
It would be nice to meet Nick, very few who have reached the level in politics he has would wish to come on here and talk, it would be beneath them. For that he has my respect.
Do I detect a Forest fan!!
No one wants to see migrants drowning, but no one wants them either, at least in the numbers coming.