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The average swing in these seats is around 3.5%, which contrasts to the 2% found in last week’s batch of marginal polling. But the swing isn’t uniform in these seats, ranging from a 7.5% Con to Lab swing in Crewe & Nantwich and a 3.5% Lab to Con swing in Harlow.

Read the full story here

Ishmael_X

1

Pulpstar

Back the Mogg for a 40% return in 28 days.

Dair

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

JGC

The surprise for me is the Finchley seat, thought this would be a tory hold. If Labour really are doing this well in London then Ilford North, Battersea & Croyden Central are probably very similar. Not much beyond those, Enfield Southgate seems a very long shot. All the other tory seats are very safe. Simon Hughes could well be struggling in Bermondsey. What is often forgotten is the huge level of demographic change which has driven much of the recent labour success in London

Pulpstar

Labour must be picking up a tremendous amount of ethnic non Jewish vote in London looking at Finchley and the JC poll.

TheScreamingEagles

Most of the fieldworks straddled the Easter holidays.

ThomasNashe

FPT.

Re. Finchley & Golders Green: London appears to be the only place where we can be fairly sure that Labour will improve significantly on their 2010 showing. Recently, I have been wondering about Putney, where Labour were 20/1 the last time I looked. Yes, Justine Greening has a very big majority, but Labour have a decent candidate and they did hold the seat from 1997-2005. A long-shot indeed but it does seem to be within the bounds of possibility?

Freggles

Tick tock.

JackW

Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

33 minutes 33 seconds

Scrapheap_as_was

Entirely happy with these polls.

surbiton

@TSE

Actually, the swing in NE Somerset changes the "average" considerably. I am not sure how many constituencies are behaving like that.

CarlottaVance

As in the previous round, Labour seem to be having the better of the ground war in all ten of these seats. Between 55% and 78% had had literature, letters, visits, phone calls or emails from Labour; between 34% and 62% said they heard from the Tories.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/more-conservative-labour-marginals

GIN1138

So what's the overall swing here?

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Most of the fieldworks straddled the Easter holidays.

Not the tories on holibobs issue?

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Most of the fieldworks straddled the Easter holidays.

Tories came back from the slopes just to pick up the phone for Mogg.

2-5 at Boylesports available now.

surbiton

CarlottaVance said:

As in the previous round, Labour seem to be having the better of the ground war in all ten of these seats. Between 55% and 78% had had literature, letters, visits, phone calls or emails from Labour; between 34% and 62% said they heard from the Tories.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/more-conservative-labour-marginals/?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=bbc8ec6857-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-bbc8ec6857-50043421

It's difficult to make canvass calls with a stick or even in wheelchairs. That's the Tory Party for you.

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

So what's the overall swing here?

3.5% - is in the thread header

Morris_Dancer

Lots of those are very close, and could easily go either way.

Maybe the Conservatives should clone Mogg.

richardDodd

So all those Brits on the slopes at Easter are tories...amazing...gonna come as a shock to some of my Labour voting friends who are also out there

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

So what's the overall swing here?

3.5% - is in the thread header

How about without the Mogg ?

I think he is a special case.

JonCisBack

7% LD share in NE Somerset is abysmal for them! Most LD seats in the SW are goners surely? Maybe just Yeovil left...??

SquareRoot

What is the history of polling in marginals. single seat polls are fraught with difficulty.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Lots of those are very close, and could easily go either way.

Maybe the Conservatives should clone Mogg.

I might do a Moggster for Tory Leader/PM Thread

surbiton

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

In the end they will not lose more than 30 to the SNP.

Bob__Sykes

Yet more polling evidence putting Ed in No 10.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Most of the fieldworks straddled the Easter holidays.

Tories came back from the slopes just to pick up the phone for Mogg.

2-5 at Boylesports available now.

I'm trying to remember my password.

I think still worth backing the Tories in Crewe

Pulpstar

JonCisBack said:

7% LD share in NE Somerset is abysmal for them! Most LD seats in the SW are goners surely? Maybe just Yeovil left...??

Makes my Wells and Frome positions look delicious.

Tissue_Price

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

Please can I sell Lab gains from Con at 60? Or even 55, to give you an edge?

surbiton

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Lots of those are very close, and could easily go either way.

Maybe the Conservatives should clone Mogg.

I might do a Moggster for Tory Leader/PM Thread

...complete with that manner of speech !

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

So what's the overall swing here?

3.5% - is in the thread header

How about without the Mogg ?

I think he is a special case.

4.3%. The calc I did earlier removed the only Con to Lab swing as an mogg-related outlier.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Most of the fieldworks straddled the Easter holidays.

Tories came back from the slopes just to pick up the phone for Mogg.

2-5 at Boylesports available now.

I'm trying to remember my password.

I think still worth backing the Tories in Crewe

I am on at err 1-2. For £20

It's one of my pseudo-hedges to PM Ed.

surbiton

JonCisBack said:

7% LD share in NE Somerset is abysmal for them! Most LD seats in the SW are goners surely? Maybe just Yeovil left...??

Most LD seats are goners everywhere !

ThomasNashe

Morris_Dancer said:

Lots of those are very close, and could easily go either way.

Maybe the Conservatives should clone Mogg.

Yes, he comes across as authentic and independent-minded, whether you agree or don't with what he says. These days that in itself is enough to win the respect of many voters.

I think it's also why Simon Hughes will possibly buck the pro-Labour trend in London and hold on in Bermondsey. Going to be very close though.

Financier

FPT

AndyJS said:

I'm pretty sure the Tories will hold all the seats that Ashcroft has polled in today's release.

There does seem to be a Bristol effect where the Tories are doing very well in that general area: Kingswood, Bristol NW, NE Somerset.

The Bristol/Bath/N Somerset area is doing well economically, being a diverse economy and is installing new transport infrastructure to cope with demand (e.g. re-opening former railway lines).

Its airport is growing and there are now 12 daily coaches to and from the airport to Cardiff.

It is the economic centre for the SW and for near S Wales.

Pulpstar

surbiton said:

JonCisBack said:

7% LD share in NE Somerset is abysmal for them! Most LD seats in the SW are goners surely? Maybe just Yeovil left...??

Most LD seats are goners everywhere !

So long as Frome and Wells are toast

rottenborough

The ties are interesting. Expect to see the battle buses heading for the North West.

JackW

JonCisBack said:

7% LD share in NE Somerset is abysmal for them! Most LD seats in the SW are goners surely? Maybe just Yeovil left...??

No.

Look at the Ashcroft polls in the LibDem seats. Essentially where the yellow peril are not competitive or putting in an effort their scores will fall through the floor - around 600 seats. In the other 50 they will throw their last sandal into the fight.

AlastairMeeks

Have the pb Tories mentioned yet that the BBC reports yesterday's polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus, but not ICM?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32295970

CarlottaVance

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

As in the previous round, Labour seem to be having the better of the ground war in all ten of these seats. Between 55% and 78% had had literature, letters, visits, phone calls or emails from Labour; between 34% and 62% said they heard from the Tories.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/more-conservative-labour-marginals/?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=bbc8ec6857-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-bbc8ec6857-50043421

It's difficult to make canvass calls with a stick or even in wheelchairs. That's the Tory Party for you.

The pensioners who got Thatcher elected must be over 100 by now...

Easterross

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

No it doesn't. If Labour gains 20 seats from the Tories they will be doing exceedingly well.

Gadfly

TheScreamingEagles said:

Most of the fieldworks straddled the Easter holidays.

There are plenty of school children either truanting on still on holiday in my touristy neck of the woods. This suggests that some parts of the country continue to enjoy the Easter break, which could add some uncertainty to the polling results until next week.

Tissue_Price

antifrank said:

Have the pb Tories mentioned yet that the BBC reports yesterday's polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus, but not ICM?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32295970

Nice. #foam

Sean_F

Tissue_Price said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

Please can I sell Lab gains from Con at 60? Or even 55, to give you an edge?

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

Labour are nowhere close to 60 gains, on either these or last week's numbers.

SouthamObserver

Plenty of votes for the Tories to squeeze in most of those seats, so the ground game is going to be vital. They all look winnable for the Blues if they are organised enough.

I am no fan of Rees-Mogg's politics, but he does add to the gaiety of the nation. His presence in the Commons makes it a better place.

The LD/UKIP positions are fascinating. It does suggest that a decent proportion of UKIP's vote is from the None of the Above party.

Tissue_Price

antifrank said:

Have the pb Tories mentioned yet that the BBC reports yesterday's polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus, but not ICM?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32295970

I think the mentality amongst the media [not just the Beeb] is genuinely "it's a +6 outlier, so we can throw it out completely" rather than "it's a +6 outlier, so we should mentally dial it back a little to maybe +4".

This is because most journalists are practically innumerate.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Price, #foam?

Also, well-spotted, Mr. Antifrank.

AllyPally_Rob

ThomasNashe said:

FPT.

Re. Finchley & Golders Green: London appears to be the only place where we can be fairly sure that Labour will improve significantly on their 2010 showing. Recently, I have been wondering about Putney, where Labour were 20/1 the last time I looked. Yes, Justine Greening has a very big majority, but Labour have a decent candidate and they did hold the seat from 1997-2005. A long-shot indeed but it does seem to be within the bounds of possibility?

Putney/Battersea has become far more 'yuppified' than areas like Finchley, which is more traditional wealth and champagne socialism, which I'd suggest make them a lot less likely to fall to LAB .

SouthamObserver

Sean_F said:

Tissue_Price said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

Please can I sell Lab gains from Con at 60? Or even 55, to give you an edge?

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

Labour are nowhere close to 60 gains, on either these or last week's numbers.

Yep, Labour will do very well to advance even slightly beyond its current seat tally.

Sean_F

UKIP would reach 10,000 votes in Dover, 8,000 in Dudley South, and 7,000 in Cleethorpes on these numbers, so I don't think they'd be too disappointed. Note, though, how a big UKIP vote doesn't hurt the Conservatives at all, here, or in Harlow.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

Have the pb Tories mentioned yet that the BBC reports yesterday's polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus, but not ICM?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32295970

I think the mentality amongst the media [not just the Beeb] is genuinely "it's a +6 outlier, so we can throw it out completely" rather than "it's a +6 outlier, so we should mentally dial it back a little to maybe +4".

This is because most journalists are practically innumerate.

The most shockingly innumerate bit of poll reporting I've seen recently was quite a few journalists saying the ComRes Scottish Labour seats polls was great for Lab, as they were only 6% behind the SNP, unlike the 20% lead other polls showed

Slackbladder

Pulpstar said:

JonCisBack said:

7% LD share in NE Somerset is abysmal for them! Most LD seats in the SW are goners surely? Maybe just Yeovil left...??

Makes my Wells and Frome positions look delicious.

which is an important point. There will be seats which the tories gain from the Lib Dems..

Garethofthevale

There's also demographic

Morris_Dancer said:

Lots of those are very close, and could easily go either way.

Maybe the Conservatives should clone Mogg.

There is also demographic change in NE Somerset in that it was an ex-coal mining area (although the last pits shut in the 70s before the miners strike)

I expect the Cons to hold all their seats in the former county of Avon with the only change being Lab gain Bristol W

Tissue_Price

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Price, #foam?

Also, well-spotted, Mr. Antifrank.

As in "I'm foaming at the mouth at this latest example of outrageous bias from the liberal lefty moneywasting parasites."

ydoethur

Gadfly said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Most of the fieldworks straddled the Easter holidays.

There are plenty of school children either truanting on still on holiday in my touristy neck of the woods. This suggests that some parts of the country continue to enjoy the Easter break, which could add some uncertainty to the polling results until next week.

Schools in Staffordshire broke up on Maundy Thursday and return to school next week. Can't speak for the rest of the country but think it is the same in Herefs and Glos.

That way, we had 2 six-week half terms before Easter which made everything a bit neater.

MaxPB

All of these seats should be Blue on the night. In none are they so far behind that they are unwinnable. I would say this is a solid poll for the Tories. Labour are not getting the swings needed for an English majority let alone a UK majority now that Scotland is out for them.

SouthamObserver

Sean_F said:

UKIP would reach 10,000 votes in Dover, 8,000 in Dudley South, and 7,000 in Cleethorpes on these numbers, so I don't think they'd be too disappointed. Note, though, how a big UKIP vote doesn't hurt the Conservatives at all, here, or in Harlow.

It's hurting the LibDems most of all and does suggest that in many marginal seats there is not a big Red LD vote for Labour to squeeze. That makes sense if you see things in terms of anti-Tory instead of Red LD. Nick Palmer may want to ponder that :-)

NickPalmer

Taken as a whole these reinforce the impression of a finely-balanced election in terms of vote share. If the national race has the parties exactly tied (which despite ICM remains the polling consensus), then the swing is 3.5, exactly the same as in this batch. As Andy points out on the last thread, you'd expect random sample variation to produce some outliers within a group of 12, so I wouldn't read too much into comparing any two seats here.

Of course, if the parties end up with equal vote share, EdM will be Prime Minister. Tick, tock. We should have a clearer view of that by next week when we've had any manifesto bounces settling and the "opposition leaders'" debate.

Incidentally, we had a huge local hustings last night in the local church - must have been 250 or so people there and an intense debate lasting two hours. I was getting the edge on applause, but it was in Beeston, which is usually Labour-leaning. The LibDem candidate absent-mindedly called me Nick Clegg (I may sue).

Slackbladder

Garethofthevale said:

There's also demographic

Morris_Dancer said:

Lots of those are very close, and could easily go either way.

Maybe the Conservatives should clone Mogg.

There is also demographic change in NE Somerset in that it was an ex-coal mining area (although the last pits shut in the 70s before the miners strike)

I expect the Cons to hold all their seats in the former county of Avon with the only change being Lab gain Bristol W

Area's like Midsomer Norton and Radstock seems very much more like northern towns if you visit them, but I expect over time they will be gentrifed as they are good commuter towns for both Bristol and Bath.

JackW

Sean_F said:

UKIP would reach 10,000 votes in Dover, 8,000 in Dudley South, and 7,000 in Cleethorpes on these numbers, so I don't think they'd be too disappointed. Note, though, how a big UKIP vote doesn't hurt the Conservatives at all, here, or in Harlow.

Sean - What's your latest projection for UKIP seats?

ydoethur

SouthamObserver said:

Plenty of votes for the Tories to squeeze in most of those seats, so the ground game is going to be vital. They all look winnable for the Blues if they are organised enough.

I am no fan of Rees-Mogg's politics, but he does add to the gaiety of the nation. His presence in the Commons makes it a better place.

The LD/UKIP positions are fascinating. It does suggest that a decent proportion of UKIP's vote is from the None of the Above party.

Same could be said of Dennis Skinner in many ways. Politics would be EVEN MORE boring if it wasn't for the occasional colourful character.

Smarmeron

May Day

BBC Radio 5 Live
Posted at 08:10

Theresa May has been pressed on BBC Radio 5 Live about what happens to council housing levels as the Conservatives force local authorities to sell off their most expensive properties. “Housing associations will want to ensure they are replacing the stock,” the home secretary says. Won’t there be a time lag, though? Mrs May isn’t entirely clear in her response. What she actually said, verbatim, is: “The way the scheme operates in terms of - obviously the tenant has an opportunity to buy their own home, has to take that opportunity up, and the housing association obviously will be able to as I’ve said because the funding will be released from local authorities’ more expensive homes, will also have that.” Erm, pardon?

Freggles

MaxPB said:

All of these seats should be Blue on the night. In none are they so far behind that they are unwinnable. I would say this is a solid poll for the Tories. Labour are not getting the swings needed for an English majority let alone a UK majority now that Scotland is out for them.

LAB majority was written off long ago. What this tells us is the Blues aren't doing enough to prevent EICIPM

Plato

That was my feeling too.

MaxPB said:

All of these seats should be Blue on the night. In none are they so far behind that they are unwinnable. I would say this is a solid poll for the Tories. Labour are not getting the swings needed for an English majority let alone a UK majority now that Scotland is out for them.

rcs1000

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

Intrigued how you get to 15 LibDem to Labour losses.

I see the LibDems holding up better against labour than the Tories

Plato

Surely all the residents will be murdered before 7th May?

Slackbladder said:

Garethofthevale said:

There's also demographic

Morris_Dancer said:

Lots of those are very close, and could easily go either way.

Maybe the Conservatives should clone Mogg.

There is also demographic change in NE Somerset in that it was an ex-coal mining area (although the last pits shut in the 70s before the miners strike)

I expect the Cons to hold all their seats in the former county of Avon with the only change being Lab gain Bristol W

Area's like Midsomer Norton and Radstock seems very much more like northern towns if you visit them, but I expect over time they will be gentrifed as they are good commuter towns for both Bristol and Bath.

SouthamObserver

MaxPB said:

All of these seats should be Blue on the night. In none are they so far behind that they are unwinnable. I would say this is a solid poll for the Tories. Labour are not getting the swings needed for an English majority let alone a UK majority now that Scotland is out for them.

Absolutely. With Scotland gone there is no way that Labour are going to be the biggest party in the Commons. And outside of London and the NW (and perhaps Wales) the party's gains will be very few and far between. The only serious issue is how close the Tories get to an overall majority.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Price, fair enough.

Mr. Max, intriguing to consider whether blue or red supporters are more likely to turn out, or to be shy. Governments, I would guess, are more likely to have grudging support, perhaps especially the Conservatives (not a soft and fluffy brand), but then, Ed Miliband isn't necessarily the most beloved leader in British political history.

MarqueeMark

SouthamObserver said:

I am no fan of Rees-Mogg's politics, but he does add to the gaiety of the nation. His presence in the Commons makes it a better place.

Ress-Mogg was excellent on the 3-parents DNA change. I was 100% opposed to the position he took, but he articulated it in a very convincing way. He is a real asset to the House.

If all legislation - especially tax laws - got explored with a similar clarity, we would have far fewer loopholes for people to use.

ydoethur

NickPalmer said:

Of course, if the parties end up with equal vote share, EdM will be Prime Minister. Tick, tock. We should have a clearer view of that by next week when we've had any manifesto bounces settling and the "opposition leaders'" debate.

Incidentally, we had a huge local hustings last night in the local church - must have been 250 or so people there and an intense debate lasting two hours. I was getting the edge on applause, but it was in Beeston, which is usually Labour-leaning. The LibDem candidate absent-mindedly called me Nick Clegg (I may sue).

You don't think then that there's any risk of tactical unwind with Labour starting to pile up votes in seats they already hold or seats the LDs hold that Labour can't possibly win? Because that would surely make a difference from the Blair years where Labour won huge majorities on very low shares of the vote (although Tory balloting inefficiency dated from 1992) I've no hard data either way, I'm just curious to know what you think.

Ouch, on your LD opponent. That's a facepalm moment.

AllyPally_Rob

NickPalmer said:

Taken as a whole these reinforce the impression of a finely-balanced election in terms of vote share. If the national race has the parties exactly tied (which despite ICM remains the polling consensus), then the swing is 3.5, exactly the same as in this batch. As Andy points out on the last thread, you'd expect random sample variation to produce some outliers within a group of 12, so I wouldn't read too much into comparing any two seats here.

Of course, if the parties end up with equal vote share, EdM will be Prime Minister. Tick, tock. We should have a clearer view of that by next week when we've had any manifesto bounces settling and the "opposition leaders'" debate.

Incidentally, we had a huge local hustings last night in the local church - must have been 250 or so people there and an intense debate lasting two hours. I was getting the edge on applause, but it was in Beeston, which is usually Labour-leaning. The LibDem candidate absent-mindedly called me Nick Clegg (I may sue).

Sounds like an excellent turnout Nick. Would I be right in saying Beeston is the wealthiest part of the constituency? Also Off topic but is the Crown Inn still going in Beeston? Used to be a decent pub when i visited that part of the world

Sean_F

Garethofthevale said:

There's also demographic

Morris_Dancer said:

Lots of those are very close, and could easily go either way.

Maybe the Conservatives should clone Mogg.

There is also demographic change in NE Somerset in that it was an ex-coal mining area (although the last pits shut in the 70s before the miners strike)

I expect the Cons to hold all their seats in the former county of Avon with the only change being Lab gain Bristol W

A very good point. Ex-mining seats tend to shift heavily rightwards after a generation.

SMukesh

Confirms the general view that Labour are doing much better in the metropolitan areas and the North and Con in rural areas and the South.

ThomasNashe

AllyPally_Rob said:

ThomasNashe said:

FPT.

Re. Finchley & Golders Green: London appears to be the only place where we can be fairly sure that Labour will improve significantly on their 2010 showing. Recently, I have been wondering about Putney, where Labour were 20/1 the last time I looked. Yes, Justine Greening has a very big majority, but Labour have a decent candidate and they did hold the seat from 1997-2005. A long-shot indeed but it does seem to be within the bounds of possibility?

Putney/Battersea has become far more 'yuppified' than areas like Finchley, which is more traditional wealth and champagne socialism, which I'd suggest make them a lot less likely to fall to LAB .

Yes, I'm not making any claim beyond the fact that there are less likely 20/1 shots. I would say, however, that socio-economic profile appears to be much less of a determiner of the outcome of London seats than elsewhere.

Tissue_Price

NickPalmer said:

Taken as a whole these reinforce the impression of a finely-balanced election in terms of vote share. If the national race has the parties exactly tied (which despite ICM remains the polling consensus), then the swing is 3.5, exactly the same as in this batch. As Andy points out on the last thread, you'd expect random sample variation to produce some outliers within a group of 12, so I wouldn't read too much into comparing any two seats here.

Of course, if the parties end up with equal vote share, EdM will be Prime Minister. Tick, tock. We should have a clearer view of that by next week when we've had any manifesto bounces settling and the "opposition leaders'" debate.

Incidentally, we had a huge local hustings last night in the local church - must have been 250 or so people there and an intense debate lasting two hours. I was getting the edge on applause, but it was in Beeston, which is usually Labour-leaning. The LibDem candidate absent-mindedly called me Nick Clegg (I may sue).

Hi Nick

Is there still a proposal for a Broxtowe PB get-together pre-ecletion? If so could you post details?

Cheers

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

So what's the overall swing here?

3.5% - is in the thread header

You expect me to read the thread headers before I've had my fourth cup of coffee?

Anyway, interesting that it's smaller than the 5% swing Ashcroft has been finding? The marginals and national picture beginning to align?

bigjohnowls

Todays BJESUS

14.4.15 LAB 292 (292) CON 271(272) LD 31(30) UKIP 2(2) Others 54(54) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 22 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

SouthamObserver

NickPalmer said:

Taken as a whole these reinforce the impression of a finely-balanced election in terms of vote share. If the national race has the parties exactly tied (which despite ICM remains the polling consensus), then the swing is 3.5, exactly the same as in this batch. As Andy points out on the last thread, you'd expect random sample variation to produce some outliers within a group of 12, so I wouldn't read too much into comparing any two seats here.

Of course, if the parties end up with equal vote share, EdM will be Prime Minister. Tick, tock. We should have a clearer view of that by next week when we've had any manifesto bounces settling and the "opposition leaders'" debate.

Incidentally, we had a huge local hustings last night in the local church - must have been 250 or so people there and an intense debate lasting two hours. I was getting the edge on applause, but it was in Beeston, which is usually Labour-leaning. The LibDem candidate absent-mindedly called me Nick Clegg (I may sue).

Not sure about that at all. It is quite possible that Labour will see bigger majorities in existing seats as Red LDs return home - having voted in 2010 for the LDs in the knowedge that it would make no difference. In the marginals, the dynamic may well have been very different. Looking ta the UKIP and LD votes above, that does seem to be the case.

JonCisBack

JackW said:

JonCisBack said:

7% LD share in NE Somerset is abysmal for them! Most LD seats in the SW are goners surely? Maybe just Yeovil left...??

No.

Look at the Ashcroft polls in the LibDem seats. Essentially where the yellow peril are not competitive or putting in an effort their scores will fall through the floor - around 600 seats. In the other 50 they will throw their last sandal into the fight.

Yes I'm sure you're right, but that is a collapse in support.

However I had erroneously assumed the LDs were 2nd in that seat last time. I have family in Wells constituency so assumed Somerset was all CON/LD fights with Lab nowhere.

Financier

Slackbladder said:

Garethofthevale said:

There's also demographic

Morris_Dancer said:

Lots of those are very close, and could easily go either way.

Maybe the Conservatives should clone Mogg.

There is also demographic change in NE Somerset in that it was an ex-coal mining area (although the last pits shut in the 70s before the miners strike)

I expect the Cons to hold all their seats in the former county of Avon with the only change being Lab gain Bristol W

Area's like Midsomer Norton and Radstock seems very much more like northern towns if you visit them, but I expect over time they will be gentrifed as they are good commuter towns for both Bristol and Bath.

As an ex- N Somerset man, I still visit the area regularly. Bristol/Bath have become even greater commuter centres than they always were. People regularly commute from as far as Wells, Weston-S-Mare to the south and even Gloucester to the north. So certainly the former ex-mining areas have moved up-market. The old railway to Portishead is being re-opened as well as more dualling on local lines north of Bristol centre.

MarqueeMark

Labour still has to endure a three week kicking over its economic policy - or, rather, its lack of one.

I really felt that yesterday was a significant event in the way this election will pan out. Labour has nothing positive to offer on the economy. Nothing at all. They have not made the case for change.

It will come own to the voters deciding "Labour - why should I take the risk?"

They are going to spend the 8th of May looking like Israeli pollsters..... "How did THAT happen?"

Alanbrooke

I never quite get the ground war theme. Maybe it's because I'm in a rural constituency.

Bei Brooke leaflets go straight to recycling and are never read, canvassers get politely told to go away, telephone calls get told to go away less politely.

The only thing I can see where ground war is meaningful is taking known supporters to the polling station, but increasingly postal voting makes that irrelevant, and it only matters in marginal consitituencies.

Or is it simply the ground war theme is to make politcal activists think their doing something effective when in fact it's of questionable value ?

ydoethur

SouthamObserver said:

Absolutely. With Scotland gone there is no way that Labour are going to be the biggest party in the Commons. And outside of London and the NW (and perhaps Wales) the party's gains will be very few and far between. The only serious issue is how close the Tories get to an overall majority.

What seats do you see Labour gaining in Wales? The ones I hear mentioned most often are Arfon and Carmarthen West from Plaid Cymru, Cardiff North from the Tories and Cardiff Central from the LDs. However, I would be very surprised indeed if Labour took anything in Carmarthenshire given that the local (Labour) council is currently mired in a major corruption scandal and both the Labour candidates are implicated in it. They may even lose Llanelli. Arfon is unlikely to kick out a sitting MP. That leaves the two Cardiff seats, and the whispers I am hearing from my friends in Cardiff are that Labour's very nervous about its prospects in both of them and is actually worried about Cardiff West (due to gentrification) as well. I'd be surprised if Labour failed to make a clean sweep in Cardiff, but it sounds as though it's not impossible.

weejonnie

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

Have the pb Tories mentioned yet that the BBC reports yesterday's polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus, but not ICM?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32295970

Nice. #foam

What time is the official launch of the Tory manifesto - you know the one where the BBC effuse on how great David Cameron is and how well he has done for the country?

Sean_F

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

UKIP would reach 10,000 votes in Dover, 8,000 in Dudley South, and 7,000 in Cleethorpes on these numbers, so I don't think they'd be too disappointed. Note, though, how a big UKIP vote doesn't hurt the Conservatives at all, here, or in Harlow.

Sean - What's your latest projection for UKIP seats?

I think there are c.15 seats where a UKIP victory wouldn't surprise me. Clacton, Rochester, Thanet North and South, Thurrock, Castle Point, Basildon South, Boston, Great Yarmouth, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Plymouth Moor View, Dudley North, Grimsby, Sittingbourne, Chatham, but UKIP won't win 15. So, I go with the consensus of 4-6.

Carnyx

Easterross said:

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

No it doesn't. If Labour gains 20 seats from the Tories they will be doing exceedingly well.

Just noticed this - SCUP leader doesn't like Tories voting for LDs. Ok, I know Bears support Rangers, Pope not a weekly visitor to Mallaig Free Kirk, etc., but what price tactical voting in Scotland now?

'The Liberal Democrats are "finished" in Scotland with Alistair Carmichael likely to be the "last man standing" after the General Election, according to the Scottish Conservative leader.

Ruth Davidson launched an attack on the "desperate" Lib Dems after that party said its candidates were the only challengers to take on the SNP in their 11 seats.

Campaigning in Edinburgh, Ms Davidson said only Mr Carmichael, the Scottish Secretary and Lib Dem candidate for Orkney and Shetland, would survive the vote on May 7.'


http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/davidson-the-lib-dems-are-finishd-in-scotland-alistair-carmichael-will-be.1428930715

Plato

11am - Cameron speech.

weejonnie said:

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

Have the pb Tories mentioned yet that the BBC reports yesterday's polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus, but not ICM?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32295970

Nice. #foam

What time is the official launch of the Tory manifesto - you know the one where the BBC effuse on how great David Cameron is and how well he has done for the country?

TGOHF

bigjohnowls said:

Todays BJESUS

14.4.15 LAB 292 (292) CON 271(272) LD 31(30) UKIP 2(2) Others 54(54) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 22 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

ICM means nothing to Jesus .

JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 11th April Projection) :

Con 305 (-3) .. Lab 252 (+2) .. LibDem 30 (+2) .. SNP 38 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 21 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - TCTC
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 11 Apr - No Changes

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

Casino_Royale

CarlottaVance said:

As in the previous round, Labour seem to be having the better of the ground war in all ten of these seats. Between 55% and 78% had had literature, letters, visits, phone calls or emails from Labour; between 34% and 62% said they heard from the Tories.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/more-conservative-labour-marginals

I honestly don't know what the Tories are playing at with their ground game. This used to be a strength of theirs.

But, then again, they've lost an awful lot of members under Cameron.

Andy_Cooke1

Have had to register a new account to comment on my phone...

Looks compatible with a dead heat at about 33.5 points each.

I'd expect Labour to pick up 30-40 seats from the Tories and 10-12 from the Lib Dems, while losing 30-35 to the SNP if things stayed exactly the same (and lose 0-2 to UKIP)

Tories to gain a similar amount from the Lib Dems and lose 30-40 to Labour and 0-5 to UKIP.

LDs to lose 7-9 to the SNP.

Giving an exciting area of 270-285 Con, 260-280 Lab, 40-50 SNP and 25-30 LDs (and 2-9 UKIP)

Bear in mind that a lot of those seats are really close anyway, and a tilt in the polls of a couple of perxent could make a big difference.

Dadge

Dair said:

surbiton said:

SMukesh said:

These are Labour target seats 70-90.

Bad news for Con:That means 1 in 2 seats requiring 5 % swing are open for Labour.

Nicola Sturgeon won't be liking this.

This confirms that a reasonable expectation is Labour gaining 60 seats from the Tories, add in the 10-15 Liberal seats they will take and the 40 they lose to the SNP and you have Labour comfortably in teh 280-290 range which is where ONLY the SNP can make Ed PM.

EICINPIPM.

Almost goes without saying that Lab and the SNP will do a deal to form the next government. But Labour have slipped back considerably in England of late, so it's touch ad go whether Lab+SNP will be a majority. My latest prediction is that they'll have 322 seats altogether. ukelect.wordpress.com ... And I think the Tories have now climbed back to being the largest party, which will make the post-election period more fraught.

JackW

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

UKIP would reach 10,000 votes in Dover, 8,000 in Dudley South, and 7,000 in Cleethorpes on these numbers, so I don't think they'd be too disappointed. Note, though, how a big UKIP vote doesn't hurt the Conservatives at all, here, or in Harlow.

Sean - What's your latest projection for UKIP seats?

I think there are c.15 seats where a UKIP victory wouldn't surprise me. Clacton, Rochester, Thanet North and South, Thurrock, Castle Point, Basildon South, Boston, Great Yarmouth, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Plymouth Moor View, Dudley North, Grimsby, Sittingbourne, Chatham, but UKIP won't win 15. So, I go with the consensus of 4-6.

Thank you Sean.

JGC

NickPalmer said:

Taken as a whole these reinforce the impression of a finely-balanced election in terms of vote share. If the national race has the parties exactly tied (which despite ICM remains the polling consensus), then the swing is 3.5, exactly the same as in this batch. As Andy points out on the last thread, you'd expect random sample variation to produce some outliers within a group of 12, so I wouldn't read too much into comparing any two seats here.

Of course, if the parties end up with equal vote share, EdM will be Prime Minister. Tick, tock. We should have a clearer view of that by next week when we've had any manifesto bounces settling and the "opposition leaders'" debate.

Not sure you are quite correct about not comparing seats, look at Finchley & Harlow which are not far from each other with an almost identical result last time out. These figures very much confirm the subjective feelings that Labour is doing well (very well?) in London but not so well at all in the surrounding areas especially to the east.

I thought Labour might be doing a bit better in Dudley but the other places seem to be broadly in line with general expectations.

AndyJS

IMO 5 of these polls are very good for the Tories: Dover, Harlow, Dudley South, NE Somerset, Cleethorpes. But 3 are very good for Labour: Finchley, South Ribble, Milton Keynes South. Crewe isn't surprising because of by-election unwind.

Financier

ydoethur said:

SouthamObserver said:

Absolutely. With Scotland gone there is no way that Labour are going to be the biggest party in the Commons. And outside of London and the NW (and perhaps Wales) the party's gains will be very few and far between. The only serious issue is how close the Tories get to an overall majority.

What seats do you see Labour gaining in Wales? The ones I hear mentioned most often are Arfon and Carmarthen West from Plaid Cymru, Cardiff North from the Tories and Cardiff Central from the LDs. However, I would be very surprised indeed if Labour took anything in Carmarthenshire given that the local (Labour) council is currently mired in a major corruption scandal and both the Labour candidates are implicated in it. They may even lose Llanelli. Arfon is unlikely to kick out a sitting MP. That leaves the two Cardiff seats, and the whispers I am hearing from my friends in Cardiff are that Labour's very nervous about its prospects in both of them and is actually worried about Cardiff West (due to gentrification) as well. I'd be surprised if Labour failed to make a clean sweep in Cardiff, but it sounds as though it's not impossible.

As Plaid is to the left of Labour, they are really fishing in the same stream and so I suspect that they will stay the same. The LDs could lose Brecon and their Cardiff seat, and the Cons might lose their Cardiff seat, but I would be surprised to see any further movement.

MaxPB

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

All of these seats should be Blue on the night. In none are they so far behind that they are unwinnable. I would say this is a solid poll for the Tories. Labour are not getting the swings needed for an English majority let alone a UK majority now that Scotland is out for them.

Absolutely. With Scotland gone there is no way that Labour are going to be the biggest party in the Commons. And outside of London and the NW (and perhaps Wales) the party's gains will be very few and far between. The only serious issue is how close the Tories get to an overall majority.

I think they are in trouble in Wales as well. A lot of my uni friends are taking a serious look at PC after the debate and all are going to watch the next one on Thursday. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a big Lab > PC swing in these last few weeks. People have seen what the SNP accomplished even without independence and they know Labour won't deliver that for Wales in a million years eohtout pressure from their own nationalist movement. What Leanne Wood did was make PC credible for a lot of Labour core voters after years of failure.

Tabman

ydoethur said:

Gadfly said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Most of the fieldworks straddled the Easter holidays.

There are plenty of school children either truanting on still on holiday in my touristy neck of the woods. This suggests that some parts of the country continue to enjoy the Easter break, which could add some uncertainty to the polling results until next week.

Schools in Staffordshire broke up on Maundy Thursday and return to school next week. Can't speak for the rest of the country but think it is the same in Herefs and Glos.

That way, we had 2 six-week half terms before Easter which made everything a bit neater.

They're also off in Nottinghamshire

Plato

Has Bolton West or Solihull been included in marginals polling before? The Lab and LD maj's there are tiny.

GIN1138

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 11th April Projection) :

Con 305 (-3) .. Lab 252 (+2) .. LibDem 30 (+2) .. SNP 38 (NC) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 21 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - TCTC
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

Changes From 11 Apr - No Changes

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

Your ARSE is getting worse all the time...

Sean_F

ThomasNashe said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

ThomasNashe said:

FPT.

Re. Finchley & Golders Green: London appears to be the only place where we can be fairly sure that Labour will improve significantly on their 2010 showing. Recently, I have been wondering about Putney, where Labour were 20/1 the last time I looked. Yes, Justine Greening has a very big majority, but Labour have a decent candidate and they did hold the seat from 1997-2005. A long-shot indeed but it does seem to be within the bounds of possibility?

Putney/Battersea has become far more 'yuppified' than areas like Finchley, which is more traditional wealth and champagne socialism, which I'd suggest make them a lot less likely to fall to LAB .

Yes, I'm not making any claim beyond the fact that there are less likely 20/1 shots. I would say, however, that socio-economic profile appears to be much less of a determiner of the outcome of London seats than elsewhere.

Everything is pointing to a very strong performance for Labour in London, and a dismal performance for Labour in Kent, Herts., and Essex.