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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stand by for this morning seat polling from Lord Ashcroft
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stand by for this morning seat polling from Lord Ashcroft
I’m on Radio 4’s Today programme this morning followed by a breakfast briefing on the election so won’t be in a position to report and post on the latest round of Ashcroft seat polling.
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Is this the guy who used to lecture in economics ?
Wikipedia:
So, unsourced quote, with no names of people involved. Yep, sounds totally legit to me.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2012/03/19/steve-jobs-wouldnt-have-paid-a-dividend-3/
http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/news/1342353/can-miliband-convince-voters-trust-economy/
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9494602/ed-miliband-could-still-win-heres-what-would-happen-next/
3 hours 3 minutes 3 seconds
The Management today article you linked to, just references the Spectator article by Dan Hodges you also quoted. The order order article had no attribution at all.
So what we had is, "Dan Hodges said someone told him that someone else said........"
Do you really think this is good journalistic standards, hearsay from an unnamed source, at an unnamed time
I'd have questioned it the other way around as well
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-3032255/At-cure-baldness-Scientists-discover-regrow-hair-long-prepared-pull-first.html
I hope that your ARSE has recovered from your curry.
For a long-term investor, if you sell shares, you may have to buy them back later, and if the target company is successful that will probably be at a higher price.
And the Apple-clause should be invoked: few companies are as successful as Apple, and they are very atypical.
I rarely buy shares that pay no dividends.
That said Lord A's unseemly breakfast dump of Con/Lab marginal polling will only add to a more frenzied digestion within my ARSE less than an hour later.
Dover 2nd place could be interesting mind
Don't be cheeky.
Like the Coalition it acts as one in the interests of the nation.
Titter
If Jack is around yet, yesterday I received a personalised letter from the Viscount. Nothing yet from SNP or Labour. The score so far is therefore Liberal 10, Tory 1, SNP and SLAB 0.
6 con, 6 lab: 5% average swing
7 con 5 lab: 3-4% average swing
8 con, 4 lab, 2% average swing
9-10 con, 2-3 lab, 0.5% average swing.
11-12 con, 0-1 lab, 1% pro-con swing
In short, howver many:
50-50 indicates 5% swing
5-eighthss to 3 eights indicates 0.5sd short of 5% (ie about 3.5%)
2-thirds to 1 third indicates 1sd swing short of 5%(c. 3% less than 5%, so 2%)
4-fifths to 1 fifth (ish) is about 1.5sd short of 5%
19-twentieths to one-twentieth ish is about 2 sd short of 5%
(All calculated on a tablet while feeling muzzy, so worth checking my maths!)
SeanT had best be on his guard !!
50-50 is still 5% swing (6-6; more Lab indicates a greater than 5% swing as below in reverse)
one quarter Lab is o.67sd short of 5% (3% swing); 9-3 to the Tories on 12 seats
one-sixth Lab is 1sd short (2% swing); 10-2 Tory
Around one tenth is 1.3 sd short (1% swing) 10-11 to 1-2 Lab Tory
Around one-twentieth is 1.67 sd short (no swing) 11-12 Tory to 0-1 Lab - and judging the difference between this last three wouldl be a trick.
Though a lot may depend on the geographical spread of the Ashcroft seats, if indeed there is a bigger swing to Labour in London and SE as seemed to be the case in earlier polls.
Because it did not affect existing tenants,only new tenancies from that date.
A nowcast vs a projection. I expect them to be different and both could be right.
Is it the Tory manifesto today? Is there anything left to announce after yesterday? They played Labour well yesterday with some chunky policy detail j that kept Labour from getting any positive traction from the manifesto launch.
Though I am near my limit for this election, with over £600 staked, albeit some of the stakes laying each other off.
If it turns out that the true narrative of this election was materially different from what we have been led to believe by the internet pollsters there will be some serious disgruntlement, particularly amongst those who have more than fun sums at stake.
Whilst I continue to have reservations about the accuracy and reliability of Lord Ashcroft's efforts, particularly at constituency level, today just might give us an indication as to whether or not there is support for ICM. If the Tories are even in the MoE of the ICM figure very few seats needing a 5% swing should be going red, even on Andy's helpful analysis.
See that Sporting Index has not moved.
Surely, swing to Con could only be implied if Con retains all 12 [ indeed may also increase majorities ].
@David_Cameron: This is the cover of our manifesto.
At its heart is a simple proposition: security at every stage of your life. http://t.co/qOQxJGAndo
I'm not counting on it paying out at 66-1 for my book.
@SunPolitics: Manifest-d'oh! Labour's deficit plan doesn't add up: http://sunpl.us/60184tgu
Edit. On reading your post again I was talking about the Sporting Index figures not the moving averages which I agree have been fairly static with a modest squeeze on the smaller parties (except the SNP of course) and minimal changes for the big 2.
One might say "protection from the cradle to the grave".
The former London Mayor — notorious during his entire political career for his hard-Left leanings — was a key figure in drafting the document, and so crucial he attended the final manifesto meeting with Miliband at London’s Church House last Thursday.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3037813/How-Red-Ken-helped-write-Ed-s-manifesto-ANDREW-PIERCE-stories-spin-doctors-DON-T-want-read.html#ixzz3XGR4fcPt
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587872526862311424
This works both ways. Firstly, every time he is challenged about it it allows him to boast about his seriously impressive economic record and demonstrate that he is promising no more than he has already delivered over the last 5 years.
Secondly, when Labour and Ed Balls in particular are trying to be oh so grown up and responsible (fingers crossed behind their backs or otherwise) it has the delightful side effect of reducing them to spluttering incoherence like we saw yesterday. Labour still get shot down on their slightly fanciful if superficially more complete arithmetic and Osborne gets to say "we will find a way, again."
If he did not have the superior economic credibility he could not possibly get away with this but he does and he is using it to maximum effect.
Are we getting comparable polls about seats with small Labour majorities?
Each party seems to be using their manifesto purely to address their perceived weaknesses. No doubt this will contribute further to the dead-heat in the polls we are seeing (unless ICM turn out to be a canary and not a canard).
All the rest well within MoE, except Dover and Harlow.