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  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    David Cameron truly is a great Tory leader.

    He's on course to make sure that in Scotland the Tories have only four fewer MPs than Labour.

    Who could have predicted that when he became party leader in 2005, when Scottish Labour had 40 more MPs than the Tories?

    We're too used to seeing the only MPs who vote against the Conservatives, always and ever as Labour.

    This poll is bad for Dave's chances as the yellow peril and Conservatives go to possibly 1 or 2 seats.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Morning all. Popping in for a bit of discussion.
    Labour - fiscal responsibility a risky approach, but they have started the better campaign wise. The main risks are will anyone believe them, and if they do, will those intending Labour because of anti-austerity, or desire for more investment abandon them and go elsewhere or think 'might as well stick with the Tories then, they have the austerity track record'. I'd say their best bet is probably to go on a positive footing, stay above the melee if they can and go for 35-36% which will see Ed in number 10.

    Tories - IHT is a bit disappointing. Promised and not delivered already, a bit like Clegg going on tuition fees, although not quite as uturnable! Disappointing campaign so far south of the border, they look 97 dog tired to me, not 92 hungry, coalition and compromise has taken the fire out of their bellies a little too much. NHS is wise, distance themselves from the preconception, but needs George to have his sums better prepped for interviews with wobbly arms Marr. They need to be far more brazen and try and rather disingenuously 'own' the personal allowance and hammer on simplification of the tax system. They also need to run silent on welfare. They will win no votes on it, as people want the bill down but don't want the stigma of being benefit bashers, or to be seen to be trumpeting it. They also need to grow a set on defence and stump up the cash if they don't want the Tufton Buftons to decamp en masse to Farage. They need 36-37% realistically to be able to govern without it all falling apart quickly. Hammering on the Labour economic chaos door will help to weaken the effect of the Budget responsibility lock of the reds.

    Scotland - SNP to take 40 plus, Tories will get 2 seats - Mundell to cling on and Blues take Berwickshire etc. IF they can get 19% they might squeak a tactical win in Dumfries and Galloway., but I think the SNP tide is too strong there (although see Indy ref result etc)

    London - Tory bloodbath. There's your PM decider - can the Tories stop their Capital capitulation and shore up the Lib Dems where they are out of it? It's going to come down to a dozen London seats for me with the big two on around 275 each, plus or minus 15.

    As for me, count me out of Red, Blue, Yellow or Purple, I'm done with politics as usual. Labour betrayed the working classes, The Liberals area busted flush, UKIP are not worth considering and the Tory philosophy of trickle down economics whether they truly believe in it or not, does not work. It's tough out here, and rich buggers are getting richer without passing down the growth and benefit, Banks are not playing ball, lending is through the floor and the whole thing is waiting to come crashing down around whoever is PMs ears by late 2016 (at the latest IMO). So I'm with Natalie for this one, Greens to have as many seats in England as Tories in Scotland, you heard it here first .

    P.s. Betting tip - get on Jess Asato for Norwich North/Lab
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949

    David Cameron truly is a great Tory leader.

    He's on course to make sure that in Scotland the Tories have only four fewer MPs than Labour.

    Who could have predicted that when he became party leader in 2005, when Scottish Labour had 40 more MPs than the Tories?

    A bit of efficiency in the SNP and the Scot Tory vote, and the dream is alive - Labour with less seats in Scotland than the Tories....

    Labour's demise in Scotland makes it REALLY helpful to push the "Ed in Alex's pocket" line on the doorstep for the next 3 weeks. So a double whammy for Labour.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    In a grown-up country (or one with a PR electoral system) the NHS would be something that would be taken out of the cut and thrust of political discourse. There are a number of areas where the parties could be working together to develop long-term plans that everyone would buy into and which would enable serious long-term planning. It could and should be the same with constitutional issues. Instead, FPTP encourages confrontation, which in turn means continuous chopping and changing. It really is no way to run a country.

    This.

    Very good post. Some issues with time horizons considerably longer then 5 years need to be looked at outside the bear pit of party politics. The sacred cow that is the NHS, which paralyses all politicians into making open ended funding commitments to a system which is in dire need of reform and a clear long term strategy, deserves better.

    And almost everyone in the country is a massive fan of the NHS in principle, so would this really be so difficult or controversial?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Of course the LDs as a third party had 62 seats in 2005 and were in opposition - so the SNP with 54 and out of power won't be anything new - although they will probably claim they need some sort of special dispensation.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    PeterC said:

    BenM said:

    Financier said:

    At the request of employees we held a company conference this weekend. Being a small, hi-tech company and leading globally in our technology, all our people have post graduate degrees. Our clients are multinational and only 10% of our business comes from the UK and about 20% if western Europe is included. At the conference wives and partners had the right to express their opinions and wishes.

    Our employees are well rewarded for both the business they bring in and for the projects they manage/undertake. (We also use specialist contractors where required). All are employees are innovators and are highly motivated.

    They decided that the company should look to relocate out of the UK and preferably outside western Europe and probably organise on a regional global basis.

    Their reasons for this change are:

    (i) As they work very hard they wish to be able to retain the vast majority of their earnings.
    (ii) They do not wish to subsidise the lazy, the feckless and those who expect to have as many children as they wish at the state's expense.
    (iii) They want their families to have access to the best education and best health care.
    (iv) They want to live in a country where the aspiration for excellence is prized and where governments/local authorities are not happy to remain with average or less than average standards.
    (v) They are very unhappy at the political parties seeming intent to level down rather than level up.

    Bye then
    Unbridled individualism may not be the most attractive of qualities. But when 28% of the tax take is paid by 1% of taxpayers you have to recognise that the public good does depend on wealth creation and wealth creators. You don't have to like them, associate with them or approve of them - but you absolutely need them. In that context 'bye then' seems a rather inadeqaute response to serious issue.

    Bogus stat.

    Income tax is not "the tax take".

    Also you can get the share of income tax paid by the 1pc to rise by allowing inequality to let rip.

    Basically what happens under Tories.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Fieldwork Mar 18th to April 8th

    Before Ed went to Scotland......
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    @Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?

    You are about to become a PB legend!!!

    If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.

    I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Not just that. If the SNP end up with an absolute majority of votes as well as seats, in contrast to whoever rules in London with only abut a third of UK votes, then the democratic contrast will be endlessly highlighted.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @S0Long: Ed Milliband's claim like an alcoholic who drinks a bottle everyday and claims have no plans to buy more vodka says @nick_clegg #ge2015

    @MrHarryCole: Interesting analogy from a LibDem leader... https://t.co/HS6GmgtcS6
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Artist said:

    SNP landslide= Second election

    Which would presumably produce pretty much the same result as the first one. Except UKIP would have a bunch of close seconds to milk for tactical votes to snaffle some seats off Con and Lab, mainly Con.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @davidjhgardiner: Stewart Hosie economics
    £90bn spent on Trident over 30 years: "unaffordable"
    £180bn extra spending over 4 years: "very modest" #VictoriaLive
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
    Glasgow NE
    Dunfermline West Fife
    East Renfrewshire
    Rutherglen & Hamilton West
    Edinburgh South
    Edinburgh North & Leith
    East Lothian
    Glenrothes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Woolie, nice to see you back.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    antifrank said:

    You can get 7/2 with Coral for the SNP in Glasgow North East. Quite apart from the fact that you can hedge that bet for a profit elsewhere, it's good value in and of itself.

    The SNP has the most simple message of anyone in this election.

    "Make Westminster honour their Vow. Vote Scotland. Vote SNP."

    It appeals to the YESsers. It appeals to the "No, but...." brigade, who didn't want independence but wanted more autonomy. Together they will total a very significant majority of Scots.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
    I haven't seen the demographics, but IIRC Salmond always had a problem with women voters - something Sturgeon may not suffer from.....
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    How can people say this is a dull election with numbers like that coming though from Scotland?!
  • Labour the truly vile party

    @NadineDorriesMP: Labour supporters screaming at me as I get post op Mum into wheelchair in Bedford hospital . Screamed at lifelong teacher Mum #shameful

    @NadineDorriesMP: Patrick Hall, you need to control you sticker wearing activists

    @NadineDorriesMP: Literally screamed at top of voices at Mum, 'should be ashamed using NHS ' Disgusting. Left her shaken and upset 3 weeks post heart surgery
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
    I have an open mind, and it's true Ms Stugeon tended to do a wee bit better than him in persona ratings IIRC, but he did bring indy support from about 22% to 45% in the teeth of the establishment, and a very nasty media hate campaign which had a great deal to do with the matter.

    And I wonder if you underestimate the achievement of Messrs Brown, Cameron and Miliband with their Vow, and Mr Cameron's tearing it up the morning after the indyref vote. That is on the same timescale and worth considering as a factor.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
    So rubbish he lost the Yes vote up from 25% to 45%, and lost his way to a majority in 2011 from 15% down in the polls. I wish David Cameron was as useless as that.
  • Carnyx said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
    I have an open mind, and it's true Ms Stugeon tended to do a wee bit better than him in persona ratings IIRC, but he did bring indy support from about 22% to 45% in the teeth of the establishment, and a very nasty media hate campaign which had a great deal to do with the matter.

    And I wonder if you underestimate the achievement of Messrs Brown, Cameron and Miliband with their Vow, and Mr Cameron's tearing it up the morning after the indyref vote. That is on the same timescale and worth considering as a factor.

    Irony doesn't translate well on the interweb.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Woolie, nice to see you back.

    Nice to be back, been lurking of course ;-)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    Carnyx said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
    I have an open mind, and it's true Ms Stugeon tended to do a wee bit better than him in persona ratings IIRC, but he did bring indy support from about 22% to 45% in the teeth of the establishment, and a very nasty media hate campaign which had a great deal to do with the matter.

    And I wonder if you underestimate the achievement of Messrs Brown, Cameron and Miliband with their Vow, and Mr Cameron's tearing it up the morning after the indyref vote. That is on the same timescale and worth considering as a factor.

    I forgot to add, Mr C teed off not only the pro-ind but the pro-devo max folk at once, which I am sure is one main reason for the rise.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    SNP looks like 40+assured.

    But can the Lab get more than Con without Scotland.

    They did so decisively in 97,01 and 05.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats.
    Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949

    In a grown-up country (or one with a PR electoral system) the NHS would be something that would be taken out of the cut and thrust of political discourse. There are a number of areas where the parties could be working together to develop long-term plans that everyone would buy into and which would enable serious long-term planning. It could and should be the same with constitutional issues. Instead, FPTP encourages confrontation, which in turn means continuous chopping and changing. It really is no way to run a country.

    This.

    Very good post. Some issues with time horizons considerably longer then 5 years need to be looked at outside the bear pit of party politics. The sacred cow that is the NHS, which paralyses all politicians into making open ended funding commitments to a system which is in dire need of reform and a clear long term strategy, deserves better.

    And almost everyone in the country is a massive fan of the NHS in principle, so would this really be so difficult or controversial?
    There is something to be said for a Grand Coalition that would put an agreed Health and Education policy in place for a generation. But if you take them out the game - what has Labour got left to entice the voters with?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,165
    At what point does Ed cut SLab loose in terms of resources & policy? Perhaps Balls's 'cuts in Scotland' admission this morning a sign it's already happening.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    SMukesh said:

    SNP looks like 40+assured.

    But can the Lab get more than Con without Scotland.

    They did so decisively in 97,01 and 05.

    Labour didn't.

    Blair did.
  • I'm shocked by this polling stat. Shocked I tell you

    @robfordmancs: % agree "when people criticise my party it feels like a personal insult" SNP 52% all GB wide parties 25% or below
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
    So rubbish he lost the Yes vote up from 25% to 45%, and lost his way to a majority in 2011 from 15% down in the polls. I wish David Cameron was as useless as that.
    Still a loser - Sturg is going to multiply the number of MPs by 5 fold.

    Probably time to start ignoring UNS within Scotland too - on these figures the SNP are going to get 110% of the vote in Dundee.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    Off-topic:

    The disgraceful scenes at yesterday's cycle race in France deserve prosecution. Any cyclist who crossed after the barriers went down should be disqualified from the race and banned for a number of months.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/32284180

    I have talked to drivers who have hit people on the tracks, and it lives with them forever. Likewise, a friend had to pick up the pieces - literally - from trackside and from under trains.

    Letting them get away with this sends utterly the wrong message
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited April 2015
    Strange that the Scots are averse to voting for EdM, a multimillionaire Londoner who has barely set foot in their country.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Our four million pound turnover company that employs over 20 people and that has been built from scratch since 2003 will not be leaving no matter who wins next month. Good luck to Financier and others, though, in their never-ending quest to find the lowest taxes and least regulation.

    Given your previous words on how you would not vote Labour if Balls was involved (as a result of your disgust at the McBride scandal), how do you explain your increasingly shrill support for Labour?

    And are you really sure that Ed Miliband and Ed Balls understands enough about business to create an environment under which your business will continue to prosper?

    (And 'OK' is not an answer).

    I disagree with your fundamental premise. I am not a Labour shrill. My vote is not for Labour, but against the Tories, with whom I have a fundamental philosophical difference. In my constituency to get rid of the Tory MP you vote Labour. I do it with the belief that Labour will not form the next government, but that every vote is vital to prevent a de facto Tory majority that will take this country down a path that I don't want it to follow. FPTP forces these choices. I don't think any government will make much difference to our business. We are UK based and are committed to the UK but operate globally, mostly outside the UK and the decisions we make will determine how we fare. We began and thrived under the last Labour government and have continued to do well under the Coalition.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?

    You are about to become a PB legend!!!

    If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.

    I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
    Any recommendations?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Timmo, if the SNP and Lib Dems get 40 apiece, that only leaves 550 or so for the two largest parties (80 removed, along with Northern Ireland). Then there's Plaid, Greens, UKIP and a few Speaker/deputy roles, so perhaps down to 540.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
    Glasgow NE
    Dunfermline West Fife
    East Renfrewshire
    Rutherglen & Hamilton West
    Edinburgh South
    Edinburgh North & Leith
    East Lothian
    Glenrothes.
    And at best for Labour, every one of those is hyper-marginal....
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
    You're probably being sarcastic, but I suspect the Salmond did depress the SNP's vote and him leaving is part of the reason for SNP surge. Sturgeon seems a lot less divisive than Salmond.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956

    I'm shocked by this polling stat. Shocked I tell you

    @robfordmancs: % agree "when people criticise my party it feels like a personal insult" SNP 52% all GB wide parties 25% or below

    I'm surprised that figure is so low.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:


    I'm coming to feel that it would make more sense to have CGT on the value added to all houses, whether primary residences or not, at the time of sale. And to abolish IHT. It's increasingly a tax to catch out middling folk who haven't had the money or the confidence to indulge in tax evasion.

    I do like this proposal. Might get me back in the Conservative camp... Dunno though. I'll be voting with about the same enthusiasm as clearing up cat vomit.
    I concur.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Mr. Timmo, if the SNP and Lib Dems get 40 apiece, that only leaves 550 or so for the two largest parties (80 removed, along with Northern Ireland). Then there's Plaid, Greens, UKIP and a few Speaker/deputy roles, so perhaps down to 540.

    Well thats possible isnt it?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?

    You are about to become a PB legend!!!

    If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.

    I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.

    I agree. I can't see a reason for voting Labour in Scotland.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Strange that the Scots are averse to voting for EdM, a multimillionaire Londoner, who has barely set foot in their country.

    When will the North of England wake up to the same realisation ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Timmo, it's certainly possible, I'm just wondering how odd a Parliament we could have.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:


    I'm coming to feel that it would make more sense to have CGT on the value added to all houses, whether primary residences or not, at the time of sale. And to abolish IHT. It's increasingly a tax to catch out middling folk who haven't had the money or the confidence to indulge in tax evasion.

    I do like this proposal. Might get me back in the Conservative camp... Dunno though. I'll be voting with about the same enthusiasm as clearing up cat vomit.
    I concur.
    With gains rollable over into the next primary residence? Major clog on mobility if not.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Monday morning..I could do with a laugh..when does Labour launch its Manifesto..that should do the trick...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Betting Post: It might have the biggest majority in the world, but the seismic shifts are greatest in the DE west of Scotland.

    Also there are barely any tacticals - so with this in mind

    I've gone back in on Coatbridge (@6-5) , shifting all my green back onto the SNP there...

    I'll regard the 2% overround and liquidity loss paid between 8-11 and 6-5 as the feartie tax.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TGOHF said:

    Of course the LDs as a third party had 62 seats in 2005 and were in opposition - so the SNP with 54 and out of power won't be anything new - although they will probably claim they need some sort of special dispensation.

    The SNP currently receive just over £140k per year in Short money. With 54 MPs and 1.2 million votes they would receive about £925,000 per year.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?

    You are about to become a PB legend!!!

    If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.

    I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
    Any recommendations?
    You can get 13/8 on the SNP in East Lothian. It was a low Yes vote area, but the swing required is only 14.3% and all the polling so far seems to show the SNP averaging around 19% swings in low Yes areas, so there would need to be a lot of tactical voting in favour of Labour for the SNP to be defeated on their normal swing.

    You can get 4/6 on the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts. This requires a 17.3% swing, but Lord Ashcroft's poll suggested that they would get this, and the local MP came close to deselection even before the polling earthquake.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Surprised at the timing - if he loses it could hammer sales.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:


    I'm coming to feel that it would make more sense to have CGT on the value added to all houses, whether primary residences or not, at the time of sale. And to abolish IHT. It's increasingly a tax to catch out middling folk who haven't had the money or the confidence to indulge in tax evasion.

    I do like this proposal. Might get me back in the Conservative camp... Dunno though. I'll be voting with about the same enthusiasm as clearing up cat vomit.
    I concur.
    The Cat Vomit Brigade will be welcomed back as if they were the Imperial Guard themselves.....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Of course the LDs as a third party had 62 seats in 2005 and were in opposition - so the SNP with 54 and out of power won't be anything new - although they will probably claim they need some sort of special dispensation.

    The SNP currently receive just over £140k per year in Short money. With 54 MPs and 1.2 million votes they would receive about £925,000 per year.
    Not sure they are short of cash - but if it's at the expense of Labour then few tears..
  • O/T, what do people think about the potential for the Conservatives to take Barrow-in-Furness, given last week's announcement re new nuclear subs and the uncertainty over what would happen in a Lab government given the SNP's views?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    TGOHF said:

    Strange that the Scots are averse to voting for EdM, a multimillionaire Londoner, who has barely set foot in their country.

    When will the North of England wake up to the same realisation ?
    Ed will be a popular kind of guy in places like Hove rather than Hartlepool.

    Looking through the regionals, labour's uptick since 2010 seems largely in SE, E and SW - 10% - but a lot of it is pretty futile.

    Miliband Minor needs the right wing to remain split to have any chance of becoming PM Minor.

    If the Tory defectors to UKIP go back, may 7th will be carnage for Labour.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    "my book, a collaboration with former Sunday Times Political Editor Isabel Oakeshott". More rebadging.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    O/T, what do people think about the potential for the Conservatives to take Barrow-in-Furness, given last week's announcement re new nuclear subs and the uncertainty over what would happen in a Lab government given the SNP's views?

    Not a chance.

    But the Barrow MP is alongside Danczuk to be top of my awkward squad list come Ed's reign.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?

    You are about to become a PB legend!!!

    If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.

    I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
    Any recommendations?
    You can get 13/8 on the SNP in East Lothian. It was a low Yes vote area, but the swing required is only 14.3% and all the polling so far seems to show the SNP averaging around 19% swings in low Yes areas, so there would need to be a lot of tactical voting in favour of Labour for the SNP to be defeated on their normal swing.

    You can get 4/6 on the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts. This requires a 17.3% swing, but Lord Ashcroft's poll suggested that they would get this, and the local MP came close to deselection even before the polling earthquake.
    Many thanks. Will take a look.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:


    I'm coming to feel that it would make more sense to have CGT on the value added to all houses, whether primary residences or not, at the time of sale. And to abolish IHT. It's increasingly a tax to catch out middling folk who haven't had the money or the confidence to indulge in tax evasion.

    I do like this proposal. Might get me back in the Conservative camp... Dunno though. I'll be voting with about the same enthusiasm as clearing up cat vomit.
    I concur.
    The Cat Vomit Brigade will be welcomed back as if they were the Imperial Guard themselves.....
    You are very kind, Sir!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Surprised at the timing - if he loses it could hammer sales.
    Politics is the man's _hobby_. He's already a billionaire.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500

    Our four million pound turnover company that employs over 20 people and that has been built from scratch since 2003 will not be leaving no matter who wins next month. Good luck to Financier and others, though, in their never-ending quest to find the lowest taxes and least regulation.

    Given your previous words on how you would not vote Labour if Balls was involved (as a result of your disgust at the McBride scandal), how do you explain your increasingly shrill support for Labour?

    And are you really sure that Ed Miliband and Ed Balls understands enough about business to create an environment under which your business will continue to prosper?

    (And 'OK' is not an answer).

    I disagree with your fundamental premise. I am not a Labour shrill. My vote is not for Labour, but against the Tories, with whom I have a fundamental philosophical difference. In my constituency to get rid of the Tory MP you vote Labour. I do it with the belief that Labour will not form the next government, but that every vote is vital to prevent a de facto Tory majority that will take this country down a path that I don't want it to follow. FPTP forces these choices. I don't think any government will make much difference to our business. We are UK based and are committed to the UK but operate globally, mostly outside the UK and the decisions we make will determine how we fare. We began and thrived under the last Labour government and have continued to do well under the Coalition.

    I said you were being 'shrill', not that you were a 'shill'. There's an important difference which I think you know, despite your mangled sentence.

    There are plenty of other choices. You said you would not vote for Labour in this situation, and now you will, and your only excuse is hatred.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?

    You are about to become a PB legend!!!

    If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.

    I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
    Any recommendations?
    You can get 13/8 on the SNP in East Lothian. It was a low Yes vote area, but the swing required is only 14.3% and all the polling so far seems to show the SNP averaging around 19% swings in low Yes areas, so there would need to be a lot of tactical voting in favour of Labour for the SNP to be defeated on their normal swing.

    You can get 4/6 on the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts. This requires a 17.3% swing, but Lord Ashcroft's poll suggested that they would get this, and the local MP came close to deselection even before the polling earthquake.
    Many thanks. Will take a look.
    Cumbernauld Kilsyth, Kirkintilloch East @ 1-2 and Dunbartonshire East @ 4-5 are two seats still worth backing the SNP in.

    The tactical problem in Dunbartonshire is hilarious for unionist voters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Dave, a fair point, although low sales means lower impact and I imagine it'll be a point of pride that Ashcroft will want his book to perform well, even though financially it doesn't really matter to him.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
    I haven't seen the demographics, but IIRC Salmond always had a problem with women voters - something Sturgeon may not suffer from.....
    I've been keeping an eye on this, I think ignoring the female vote and chasing the lost 120,000 male votes has been SLAB/Murphy's biggest mistake. Historically SLAB's vote was 55% female and 45% male, the SNP being the other way around. Now SLAB is 50/50, I think Murphy's increasingly aggressive approach will lose SLAB yet more of it's female base.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Incidentally, my near silence recently has been caused by me ploughing through the seat markets to put up some pre-election party seat markets organised by prices. The first of these should be up in the next couple of days.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Lab launch at 11am.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Clegg: Labour pledging not to borrow is like an alcoholic pledging not to drink http://www.itv.com/news/story/2015-04-12/miliband-pledge-to-cut-deficit-in-britains-finances/

    Lib Lab Coalition not likely whilst Nick is in charge?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Dave, a fair point, although low sales means lower impact and I imagine it'll be a point of pride that Ashcroft will want his book to perform well, even though financially it doesn't really matter to him.

    Alternative was a March launch - surely better for sales - however potential to be seen as very disloyal and to interfere with his polling.

    I guess now he can add a few chapters on the election - but if Ed is PM then it will be all about Boris and this book will sell 3 copies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    In Edinburgh West, SNP @ 4-5 and Lib Dems @ 8-1 are both worth backing imo.

    Labour won't be winning this and neither will the Tories.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited April 2015

    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?

    You are about to become a PB legend!!!

    If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.

    I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.

    I agree. I can't see a reason for voting Labour in Scotland.

    I was speaking to a family member in Scotland over the weekend on this subject. Life long labour voter, came from a working class, union background in the ayrshire mining villages.

    I jokingly suggested that they'd be voting for Ed, I was stunned at the response, it was angry loathing, hatred even. Said they'd never vote for Labour as long as they lived, said there wasn't a single working class person in the labour party.

    Real anger behind it, it was the same tone of voice they used 30 years ago to speak about Thatcher.

    All doubt about the death of the Scottish labour party has been removed for me; there's no recovery or redemption for them. Wouldn't shock me to see them <20% on election day.
  • Pulpstar - do not much about how popular the local MP is in Barrow, but the town does have a history of voting out Labour if it worries about their commitment to nuclear subs (1983) and his majority is not enormous (5,200). Are there any other factors that would rule out a shock loss for Labour?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?

    You are about to become a PB legend!!!

    If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.

    I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.


    I agree. I can't see a reason for voting Labour in Scotland.

    I'm continuing to build my SLAB wipe-out position, last time I looked 0-5 SLAB seats was still 5/1 with WH.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The Scottish TNS sample was face-to-face interviewing.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Mr. Dave, a fair point, although low sales means lower impact and I imagine it'll be a point of pride that Ashcroft will want his book to perform well, even though financially it doesn't really matter to him.

    I suspect he'll enjoy the process of researching, and shaping the book.

    I believe he owns ConHome, Dods publishing, and all/part of Biteback so promoting the book to other political anoraks will not be a problem.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,165
    edited April 2015
    calum said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
    Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.

    The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
    I haven't seen the demographics, but IIRC Salmond always had a problem with women voters - something Sturgeon may not suffer from.....
    I've been keeping an eye on this, I think ignoring the female vote and chasing the lost 120,000 male votes has been SLAB/Murphy's biggest mistake. Historically SLAB's vote was 55% female and 45% male, the SNP being the other way around. Now SLAB is 50/50, I think Murphy's increasingly aggressive approach will lose SLAB yet more of it's female base.
    Glasgow has 2 highest female population constituencies in UK, according to a tweet by Gerry Hasan yesterday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar - do not much about how popular the local MP is in Barrow, but the town does have a history of voting out Labour if it worries about their commitment to nuclear subs (1983) and his majority is not enormous (5,200). Are there any other factors that would rule out a shock loss for Labour?

    The local MP has been very very vocal in his support for Trident. If Labour ditch it I can see him running and winning as an independent or possibly UKIP.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    timmo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats.
    Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
    I am still sticking to 38 LD seats
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar - do not much about how popular the local MP is in Barrow, but the town does have a history of voting out Labour if it worries about their commitment to nuclear subs (1983) and his majority is not enormous (5,200). Are there any other factors that would rule out a shock loss for Labour?

    The local MP has been very very vocal in his support for Trident. If Labour ditch it I can see him running and winning as an independent or possibly UKIP.
    John Woodcock would not be seen dead running as UKIP
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited April 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Clegg: Labour pledging not to borrow is like an alcoholic pledging not to drink http://www.itv.com/news/story/2015-04-12/miliband-pledge-to-cut-deficit-in-britains-finances/

    Lib Lab Coalition not likely whilst Nick is in charge?

    I wouldn't read that into it. The LibDem position is that Labour would mortgage The Queen and the Tories would feed the NHS to pigs, but you can stop either of these calamities happening by giving the LibDems a blocking minority.

    In reality Labour would be constrained by the financial markets and are doomed to disappoint their base, so it wouldn't be a problem for them having the LibDems there taking the credit/blame for tight public spending.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    "Trader" having a look at my £5.29 on SLAB seats...
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    £8/hr minimum wage by Oct 2019.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
    Glasgow NE
    Dunfermline West Fife
    East Renfrewshire
    Rutherglen & Hamilton West
    Edinburgh South
    Edinburgh North & Leith
    East Lothian
    Glenrothes.
    And at best for Labour, every one of those is hyper-marginal....
    Scottish seats sorted in order of predicted majority if SNP get 46% Scottish seats sorted by predicted majority At 52% even Glasgow NE and Orkney & Shetland would be vulnerable..
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    edited April 2015

    timmo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats.
    Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
    I am still sticking to 38 LD seats
    My switching model is currently showing 33 LD seats, including 3 in Scotland.

    Con 255
    Lab 284 including 2 in Scotland (Renfrew and Glasgow NE)
    UKIP 2
    Grn 1
    SNP 54
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited April 2015
    Apols for not responding to PBers but there are such people as clients.

    Our people are mainly from western Europe, with one from India, one from West Africa and one from USA. Their problems are twofold:

    (i) If you work really hard to earn more and put in the extra hpurs, why should that extra effort be taxed disproportionately. If it is then there is no purpose in working hard - just do your 9-5.

    (ii) They are horrified by the lack of aspiration for excellence in much of the state education and health systems. As both our African and Indian people asked, "Why do you employ truancy officers?", as often in their countries education is not free and children just crave education.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar - do not much about how popular the local MP is in Barrow, but the town does have a history of voting out Labour if it worries about their commitment to nuclear subs (1983) and his majority is not enormous (5,200). Are there any other factors that would rule out a shock loss for Labour?

    The local MP has been very very vocal in his support for Trident. If Labour ditch it I can see him running and winning as an independent or possibly UKIP.
    John Woodcock would not be seen dead running as UKIP
    Independent then. He won't countenance the abandonment of trident.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour · 58s59 seconds ago
    Labour will protect the principle of media plurality so
    that no media outlet can get too big
    Sent from my iPhone specially for you

    Presumably this does not include the BBC though.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Labour are matching the Tories rail price freeze.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Artist said:

    Labour are matching the Tories rail price freeze.

    He should go further if he wants to win commuting seats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Looks like Ed B has had his hands all over the manifesto. Locking, locking, locking...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    BenM said:

    £8/hr minimum wage by Oct 2019.

    An increase of 4.2% per annum from the current rate. Roughly speaking I thought the long-term assumption was that wages grow at 4% per year (though that hasn't been the case for a while), so it's a relatively modest commitment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    ukelect said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
    Glasgow NE
    Dunfermline West Fife
    East Renfrewshire
    Rutherglen & Hamilton West
    Edinburgh South
    Edinburgh North & Leith
    East Lothian
    Glenrothes.
    And at best for Labour, every one of those is hyper-marginal....
    Scottish seats sorted in order of predicted majority if SNP get 46% Scottish seats sorted by predicted majority At 52% even Glasgow NE and Orkney & Shetland would be vulnerable..
    Much appreciated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Ed M seems to be doing well. Clear sound bites. Pretty passionate. Some good lines.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    Barnesian said:

    timmo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats.
    Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
    I am still sticking to 38 LD seats
    My switching model is currently showing 33 LD seats, including 3 in Scotland.

    Con 255
    Lab 284 including 2 in Scotland (Renfrew and Glasgow NE)
    UKIP 2
    Grn 1
    SNP 54
    =596 so what about the other 36 (excluding NI)..
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    eek said:

    Barnesian said:

    timmo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TNS Scotland poll

    SNP 52% (+6), Lab 24% (-6), Con 13% (-1), LD 6% (+3), Green 3% (-1).

    http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll

    Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
    59 out of 59 on that?
    The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
    Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:

    Orkney (It is NOT safe)...
    Ross Skye
    Berwickshire Roxburgh
    Caithness
    Gordon
    I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats.
    Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
    I am still sticking to 38 LD seats
    My switching model is currently showing 33 LD seats, including 3 in Scotland.

    Con 255
    Lab 284 including 2 in Scotland (Renfrew and Glasgow NE)
    UKIP 2
    Grn 1
    SNP 54
    =596 so what about the other 36 (excluding NI)..
    33 LD and 3 PC
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Thus far this speech by EdM is just embarrassing..
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Our four million pound turnover company that employs over 20 people and that has been built from scratch since 2003 will not be leaving no matter who wins next month. Good luck to Financier and others, though, in their never-ending quest to find the lowest taxes and least regulation.

    Given your previous words on how you would not vote Labour if Balls was involved (as a result of your disgust at the McBride scandal), how do you explain your increasingly shrill support for Labour?

    And are you really sure that Ed Miliband and Ed Balls understands enough about business to create an environment under which your business will continue to prosper?

    (And 'OK' is not an answer).

    I disagree with your fundamental premise. I am not a Labour shrill. My vote is not for Labour, but against the Tories, with whom I have a fundamental philosophical difference. In my constituency to get rid of the Tory MP you vote Labour. I do it with the belief that Labour will not form the next government, but that every vote is vital to prevent a de facto Tory majority that will take this country down a path that I don't want it to follow. FPTP forces these choices. I don't think any government will make much difference to our business. We are UK based and are committed to the UK but operate globally, mostly outside the UK and the decisions we make will determine how we fare. We began and thrived under the last Labour government and have continued to do well under the Coalition.

    I said you were being 'shrill', not that you were a 'shill'. There's an important difference which I think you know, despite your mangled sentence.

    There are plenty of other choices. You said you would not vote for Labour in this situation, and now you will, and your only excuse is hatred.

    OK.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Artist said:

    Labour are matching the Tories rail price freeze.

    He should go further if he wants to win commuting seats.
    Ticket prices should be going up, not down, in order to pay Network Rail a bigger network subsidy.

    Supply cannot meet demand. Artificially keeping prices low whilst demand continues to escalate - and is forecast to continue escalating - is economic madness whilst NR has a £40-50 billion albatross around its neck.

    (Edit: and before anyone says, I said exactly the same thing when th Conservatives announced it).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500

    Our four million pound turnover company that employs over 20 people and that has been built from scratch since 2003 will not be leaving no matter who wins next month. Good luck to Financier and others, though, in their never-ending quest to find the lowest taxes and least regulation.

    Given your previous words on how you would not vote Labour if Balls was involved (as a result of your disgust at the McBride scandal), how do you explain your increasingly shrill support for Labour?

    And are you really sure that Ed Miliband and Ed Balls understands enough about business to create an environment under which your business will continue to prosper?

    (And 'OK' is not an answer).

    I disagree with your fundamental premise. I am not a Labour shrill. My vote is not for Labour, but against the Tories, with whom I have a fundamental philosophical difference. In my constituency to get rid of the Tory MP you vote Labour. I do it with the belief that Labour will not form the next government, but that every vote is vital to prevent a de facto Tory majority that will take this country down a path that I don't want it to follow. FPTP forces these choices. I don't think any government will make much difference to our business. We are UK based and are committed to the UK but operate globally, mostly outside the UK and the decisions we make will determine how we fare. We began and thrived under the last Labour government and have continued to do well under the Coalition.

    I said you were being 'shrill', not that you were a 'shill'. There's an important difference which I think you know, despite your mangled sentence.

    There are plenty of other choices. You said you would not vote for Labour in this situation, and now you will, and your only excuse is hatred.

    OK.

    Exactly what I expected you to say. ;-)
This discussion has been closed.