Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
Morning all. Popping in for a bit of discussion. Labour - fiscal responsibility a risky approach, but they have started the better campaign wise. The main risks are will anyone believe them, and if they do, will those intending Labour because of anti-austerity, or desire for more investment abandon them and go elsewhere or think 'might as well stick with the Tories then, they have the austerity track record'. I'd say their best bet is probably to go on a positive footing, stay above the melee if they can and go for 35-36% which will see Ed in number 10.
Tories - IHT is a bit disappointing. Promised and not delivered already, a bit like Clegg going on tuition fees, although not quite as uturnable! Disappointing campaign so far south of the border, they look 97 dog tired to me, not 92 hungry, coalition and compromise has taken the fire out of their bellies a little too much. NHS is wise, distance themselves from the preconception, but needs George to have his sums better prepped for interviews with wobbly arms Marr. They need to be far more brazen and try and rather disingenuously 'own' the personal allowance and hammer on simplification of the tax system. They also need to run silent on welfare. They will win no votes on it, as people want the bill down but don't want the stigma of being benefit bashers, or to be seen to be trumpeting it. They also need to grow a set on defence and stump up the cash if they don't want the Tufton Buftons to decamp en masse to Farage. They need 36-37% realistically to be able to govern without it all falling apart quickly. Hammering on the Labour economic chaos door will help to weaken the effect of the Budget responsibility lock of the reds.
Scotland - SNP to take 40 plus, Tories will get 2 seats - Mundell to cling on and Blues take Berwickshire etc. IF they can get 19% they might squeak a tactical win in Dumfries and Galloway., but I think the SNP tide is too strong there (although see Indy ref result etc)
London - Tory bloodbath. There's your PM decider - can the Tories stop their Capital capitulation and shore up the Lib Dems where they are out of it? It's going to come down to a dozen London seats for me with the big two on around 275 each, plus or minus 15.
As for me, count me out of Red, Blue, Yellow or Purple, I'm done with politics as usual. Labour betrayed the working classes, The Liberals area busted flush, UKIP are not worth considering and the Tory philosophy of trickle down economics whether they truly believe in it or not, does not work. It's tough out here, and rich buggers are getting richer without passing down the growth and benefit, Banks are not playing ball, lending is through the floor and the whole thing is waiting to come crashing down around whoever is PMs ears by late 2016 (at the latest IMO). So I'm with Natalie for this one, Greens to have as many seats in England as Tories in Scotland, you heard it here first .
P.s. Betting tip - get on Jess Asato for Norwich North/Lab
He's on course to make sure that in Scotland the Tories have only four fewer MPs than Labour.
Who could have predicted that when he became party leader in 2005, when Scottish Labour had 40 more MPs than the Tories?
A bit of efficiency in the SNP and the Scot Tory vote, and the dream is alive - Labour with less seats in Scotland than the Tories....
Labour's demise in Scotland makes it REALLY helpful to push the "Ed in Alex's pocket" line on the doorstep for the next 3 weeks. So a double whammy for Labour.
In a grown-up country (or one with a PR electoral system) the NHS would be something that would be taken out of the cut and thrust of political discourse. There are a number of areas where the parties could be working together to develop long-term plans that everyone would buy into and which would enable serious long-term planning. It could and should be the same with constitutional issues. Instead, FPTP encourages confrontation, which in turn means continuous chopping and changing. It really is no way to run a country.
This.
Very good post. Some issues with time horizons considerably longer then 5 years need to be looked at outside the bear pit of party politics. The sacred cow that is the NHS, which paralyses all politicians into making open ended funding commitments to a system which is in dire need of reform and a clear long term strategy, deserves better.
And almost everyone in the country is a massive fan of the NHS in principle, so would this really be so difficult or controversial?
Of course the LDs as a third party had 62 seats in 2005 and were in opposition - so the SNP with 54 and out of power won't be anything new - although they will probably claim they need some sort of special dispensation.
At the request of employees we held a company conference this weekend. Being a small, hi-tech company and leading globally in our technology, all our people have post graduate degrees. Our clients are multinational and only 10% of our business comes from the UK and about 20% if western Europe is included. At the conference wives and partners had the right to express their opinions and wishes.
Our employees are well rewarded for both the business they bring in and for the projects they manage/undertake. (We also use specialist contractors where required). All are employees are innovators and are highly motivated.
They decided that the company should look to relocate out of the UK and preferably outside western Europe and probably organise on a regional global basis.
Their reasons for this change are:
(i) As they work very hard they wish to be able to retain the vast majority of their earnings. (ii) They do not wish to subsidise the lazy, the feckless and those who expect to have as many children as they wish at the state's expense. (iii) They want their families to have access to the best education and best health care. (iv) They want to live in a country where the aspiration for excellence is prized and where governments/local authorities are not happy to remain with average or less than average standards. (v) They are very unhappy at the political parties seeming intent to level down rather than level up.
Bye then
Unbridled individualism may not be the most attractive of qualities. But when 28% of the tax take is paid by 1% of taxpayers you have to recognise that the public good does depend on wealth creation and wealth creators. You don't have to like them, associate with them or approve of them - but you absolutely need them. In that context 'bye then' seems a rather inadeqaute response to serious issue.
Bogus stat.
Income tax is not "the tax take".
Also you can get the share of income tax paid by the 1pc to rise by allowing inequality to let rip.
@Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?
You are about to become a PB legend!!!
If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.
I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
Not just that. If the SNP end up with an absolute majority of votes as well as seats, in contrast to whoever rules in London with only abut a third of UK votes, then the democratic contrast will be endlessly highlighted.
Which would presumably produce pretty much the same result as the first one. Except UKIP would have a bunch of close seconds to milk for tactical votes to snaffle some seats off Con and Lab, mainly Con.
@davidjhgardiner: Stewart Hosie economics £90bn spent on Trident over 30 years: "unaffordable" £180bn extra spending over 4 years: "very modest" #VictoriaLive
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
Glasgow NE Dunfermline West Fife East Renfrewshire Rutherglen & Hamilton West Edinburgh South Edinburgh North & Leith East Lothian Glenrothes.
You can get 7/2 with Coral for the SNP in Glasgow North East. Quite apart from the fact that you can hedge that bet for a profit elsewhere, it's good value in and of itself.
The SNP has the most simple message of anyone in this election.
"Make Westminster honour their Vow. Vote Scotland. Vote SNP."
It appeals to the YESsers. It appeals to the "No, but...." brigade, who didn't want independence but wanted more autonomy. Together they will total a very significant majority of Scots.
@NadineDorriesMP: Labour supporters screaming at me as I get post op Mum into wheelchair in Bedford hospital . Screamed at lifelong teacher Mum #shameful
@NadineDorriesMP: Patrick Hall, you need to control you sticker wearing activists
@NadineDorriesMP: Literally screamed at top of voices at Mum, 'should be ashamed using NHS ' Disgusting. Left her shaken and upset 3 weeks post heart surgery
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.
The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
I have an open mind, and it's true Ms Stugeon tended to do a wee bit better than him in persona ratings IIRC, but he did bring indy support from about 22% to 45% in the teeth of the establishment, and a very nasty media hate campaign which had a great deal to do with the matter.
And I wonder if you underestimate the achievement of Messrs Brown, Cameron and Miliband with their Vow, and Mr Cameron's tearing it up the morning after the indyref vote. That is on the same timescale and worth considering as a factor.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.
The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
So rubbish he lost the Yes vote up from 25% to 45%, and lost his way to a majority in 2011 from 15% down in the polls. I wish David Cameron was as useless as that.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.
The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
I have an open mind, and it's true Ms Stugeon tended to do a wee bit better than him in persona ratings IIRC, but he did bring indy support from about 22% to 45% in the teeth of the establishment, and a very nasty media hate campaign which had a great deal to do with the matter.
And I wonder if you underestimate the achievement of Messrs Brown, Cameron and Miliband with their Vow, and Mr Cameron's tearing it up the morning after the indyref vote. That is on the same timescale and worth considering as a factor.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.
The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
I have an open mind, and it's true Ms Stugeon tended to do a wee bit better than him in persona ratings IIRC, but he did bring indy support from about 22% to 45% in the teeth of the establishment, and a very nasty media hate campaign which had a great deal to do with the matter.
And I wonder if you underestimate the achievement of Messrs Brown, Cameron and Miliband with their Vow, and Mr Cameron's tearing it up the morning after the indyref vote. That is on the same timescale and worth considering as a factor.
I forgot to add, Mr C teed off not only the pro-ind but the pro-devo max folk at once, which I am sure is one main reason for the rise.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats. Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
In a grown-up country (or one with a PR electoral system) the NHS would be something that would be taken out of the cut and thrust of political discourse. There are a number of areas where the parties could be working together to develop long-term plans that everyone would buy into and which would enable serious long-term planning. It could and should be the same with constitutional issues. Instead, FPTP encourages confrontation, which in turn means continuous chopping and changing. It really is no way to run a country.
This.
Very good post. Some issues with time horizons considerably longer then 5 years need to be looked at outside the bear pit of party politics. The sacred cow that is the NHS, which paralyses all politicians into making open ended funding commitments to a system which is in dire need of reform and a clear long term strategy, deserves better.
And almost everyone in the country is a massive fan of the NHS in principle, so would this really be so difficult or controversial?
There is something to be said for a Grand Coalition that would put an agreed Health and Education policy in place for a generation. But if you take them out the game - what has Labour got left to entice the voters with?
At what point does Ed cut SLab loose in terms of resources & policy? Perhaps Balls's 'cuts in Scotland' admission this morning a sign it's already happening.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.
The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
So rubbish he lost the Yes vote up from 25% to 45%, and lost his way to a majority in 2011 from 15% down in the polls. I wish David Cameron was as useless as that.
Still a loser - Sturg is going to multiply the number of MPs by 5 fold.
Probably time to start ignoring UNS within Scotland too - on these figures the SNP are going to get 110% of the vote in Dundee.
The disgraceful scenes at yesterday's cycle race in France deserve prosecution. Any cyclist who crossed after the barriers went down should be disqualified from the race and banned for a number of months.
I have talked to drivers who have hit people on the tracks, and it lives with them forever. Likewise, a friend had to pick up the pieces - literally - from trackside and from under trains.
Letting them get away with this sends utterly the wrong message
Our four million pound turnover company that employs over 20 people and that has been built from scratch since 2003 will not be leaving no matter who wins next month. Good luck to Financier and others, though, in their never-ending quest to find the lowest taxes and least regulation.
Given your previous words on how you would not vote Labour if Balls was involved (as a result of your disgust at the McBride scandal), how do you explain your increasingly shrill support for Labour?
And are you really sure that Ed Miliband and Ed Balls understands enough about business to create an environment under which your business will continue to prosper?
(And 'OK' is not an answer).
I disagree with your fundamental premise. I am not a Labour shrill. My vote is not for Labour, but against the Tories, with whom I have a fundamental philosophical difference. In my constituency to get rid of the Tory MP you vote Labour. I do it with the belief that Labour will not form the next government, but that every vote is vital to prevent a de facto Tory majority that will take this country down a path that I don't want it to follow. FPTP forces these choices. I don't think any government will make much difference to our business. We are UK based and are committed to the UK but operate globally, mostly outside the UK and the decisions we make will determine how we fare. We began and thrived under the last Labour government and have continued to do well under the Coalition.
@Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?
You are about to become a PB legend!!!
If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.
I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
Mr. Timmo, if the SNP and Lib Dems get 40 apiece, that only leaves 550 or so for the two largest parties (80 removed, along with Northern Ireland). Then there's Plaid, Greens, UKIP and a few Speaker/deputy roles, so perhaps down to 540.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
Glasgow NE Dunfermline West Fife East Renfrewshire Rutherglen & Hamilton West Edinburgh South Edinburgh North & Leith East Lothian Glenrothes.
And at best for Labour, every one of those is hyper-marginal....
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.
The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
You're probably being sarcastic, but I suspect the Salmond did depress the SNP's vote and him leaving is part of the reason for SNP surge. Sturgeon seems a lot less divisive than Salmond.
I'm coming to feel that it would make more sense to have CGT on the value added to all houses, whether primary residences or not, at the time of sale. And to abolish IHT. It's increasingly a tax to catch out middling folk who haven't had the money or the confidence to indulge in tax evasion.
I do like this proposal. Might get me back in the Conservative camp... Dunno though. I'll be voting with about the same enthusiasm as clearing up cat vomit.
Mr. Timmo, if the SNP and Lib Dems get 40 apiece, that only leaves 550 or so for the two largest parties (80 removed, along with Northern Ireland). Then there's Plaid, Greens, UKIP and a few Speaker/deputy roles, so perhaps down to 540.
@Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?
You are about to become a PB legend!!!
If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.
I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
I agree. I can't see a reason for voting Labour in Scotland.
I'm coming to feel that it would make more sense to have CGT on the value added to all houses, whether primary residences or not, at the time of sale. And to abolish IHT. It's increasingly a tax to catch out middling folk who haven't had the money or the confidence to indulge in tax evasion.
I do like this proposal. Might get me back in the Conservative camp... Dunno though. I'll be voting with about the same enthusiasm as clearing up cat vomit.
I concur.
With gains rollable over into the next primary residence? Major clog on mobility if not.
Of course the LDs as a third party had 62 seats in 2005 and were in opposition - so the SNP with 54 and out of power won't be anything new - although they will probably claim they need some sort of special dispensation.
The SNP currently receive just over £140k per year in Short money. With 54 MPs and 1.2 million votes they would receive about £925,000 per year.
@Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?
You are about to become a PB legend!!!
If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.
I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
Any recommendations?
You can get 13/8 on the SNP in East Lothian. It was a low Yes vote area, but the swing required is only 14.3% and all the polling so far seems to show the SNP averaging around 19% swings in low Yes areas, so there would need to be a lot of tactical voting in favour of Labour for the SNP to be defeated on their normal swing.
You can get 4/6 on the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts. This requires a 17.3% swing, but Lord Ashcroft's poll suggested that they would get this, and the local MP came close to deselection even before the polling earthquake.
I'm coming to feel that it would make more sense to have CGT on the value added to all houses, whether primary residences or not, at the time of sale. And to abolish IHT. It's increasingly a tax to catch out middling folk who haven't had the money or the confidence to indulge in tax evasion.
I do like this proposal. Might get me back in the Conservative camp... Dunno though. I'll be voting with about the same enthusiasm as clearing up cat vomit.
I concur.
The Cat Vomit Brigade will be welcomed back as if they were the Imperial Guard themselves.....
Of course the LDs as a third party had 62 seats in 2005 and were in opposition - so the SNP with 54 and out of power won't be anything new - although they will probably claim they need some sort of special dispensation.
The SNP currently receive just over £140k per year in Short money. With 54 MPs and 1.2 million votes they would receive about £925,000 per year.
Not sure they are short of cash - but if it's at the expense of Labour then few tears..
O/T, what do people think about the potential for the Conservatives to take Barrow-in-Furness, given last week's announcement re new nuclear subs and the uncertainty over what would happen in a Lab government given the SNP's views?
O/T, what do people think about the potential for the Conservatives to take Barrow-in-Furness, given last week's announcement re new nuclear subs and the uncertainty over what would happen in a Lab government given the SNP's views?
Not a chance.
But the Barrow MP is alongside Danczuk to be top of my awkward squad list come Ed's reign.
@Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?
You are about to become a PB legend!!!
If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.
I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
Any recommendations?
You can get 13/8 on the SNP in East Lothian. It was a low Yes vote area, but the swing required is only 14.3% and all the polling so far seems to show the SNP averaging around 19% swings in low Yes areas, so there would need to be a lot of tactical voting in favour of Labour for the SNP to be defeated on their normal swing.
You can get 4/6 on the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts. This requires a 17.3% swing, but Lord Ashcroft's poll suggested that they would get this, and the local MP came close to deselection even before the polling earthquake.
I'm coming to feel that it would make more sense to have CGT on the value added to all houses, whether primary residences or not, at the time of sale. And to abolish IHT. It's increasingly a tax to catch out middling folk who haven't had the money or the confidence to indulge in tax evasion.
I do like this proposal. Might get me back in the Conservative camp... Dunno though. I'll be voting with about the same enthusiasm as clearing up cat vomit.
I concur.
The Cat Vomit Brigade will be welcomed back as if they were the Imperial Guard themselves.....
Our four million pound turnover company that employs over 20 people and that has been built from scratch since 2003 will not be leaving no matter who wins next month. Good luck to Financier and others, though, in their never-ending quest to find the lowest taxes and least regulation.
Given your previous words on how you would not vote Labour if Balls was involved (as a result of your disgust at the McBride scandal), how do you explain your increasingly shrill support for Labour?
And are you really sure that Ed Miliband and Ed Balls understands enough about business to create an environment under which your business will continue to prosper?
(And 'OK' is not an answer).
I disagree with your fundamental premise. I am not a Labour shrill. My vote is not for Labour, but against the Tories, with whom I have a fundamental philosophical difference. In my constituency to get rid of the Tory MP you vote Labour. I do it with the belief that Labour will not form the next government, but that every vote is vital to prevent a de facto Tory majority that will take this country down a path that I don't want it to follow. FPTP forces these choices. I don't think any government will make much difference to our business. We are UK based and are committed to the UK but operate globally, mostly outside the UK and the decisions we make will determine how we fare. We began and thrived under the last Labour government and have continued to do well under the Coalition.
I said you were being 'shrill', not that you were a 'shill'. There's an important difference which I think you know, despite your mangled sentence.
There are plenty of other choices. You said you would not vote for Labour in this situation, and now you will, and your only excuse is hatred.
@Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?
You are about to become a PB legend!!!
If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.
I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
Any recommendations?
You can get 13/8 on the SNP in East Lothian. It was a low Yes vote area, but the swing required is only 14.3% and all the polling so far seems to show the SNP averaging around 19% swings in low Yes areas, so there would need to be a lot of tactical voting in favour of Labour for the SNP to be defeated on their normal swing.
You can get 4/6 on the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts. This requires a 17.3% swing, but Lord Ashcroft's poll suggested that they would get this, and the local MP came close to deselection even before the polling earthquake.
Many thanks. Will take a look.
Cumbernauld Kilsyth, Kirkintilloch East @ 1-2 and Dunbartonshire East @ 4-5 are two seats still worth backing the SNP in.
The tactical problem in Dunbartonshire is hilarious for unionist voters.
Mr. Dave, a fair point, although low sales means lower impact and I imagine it'll be a point of pride that Ashcroft will want his book to perform well, even though financially it doesn't really matter to him.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.
The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
I haven't seen the demographics, but IIRC Salmond always had a problem with women voters - something Sturgeon may not suffer from.....
I've been keeping an eye on this, I think ignoring the female vote and chasing the lost 120,000 male votes has been SLAB/Murphy's biggest mistake. Historically SLAB's vote was 55% female and 45% male, the SNP being the other way around. Now SLAB is 50/50, I think Murphy's increasingly aggressive approach will lose SLAB yet more of it's female base.
Incidentally, my near silence recently has been caused by me ploughing through the seat markets to put up some pre-election party seat markets organised by prices. The first of these should be up in the next couple of days.
Mr. Dave, a fair point, although low sales means lower impact and I imagine it'll be a point of pride that Ashcroft will want his book to perform well, even though financially it doesn't really matter to him.
Alternative was a March launch - surely better for sales - however potential to be seen as very disloyal and to interfere with his polling.
I guess now he can add a few chapters on the election - but if Ed is PM then it will be all about Boris and this book will sell 3 copies.
@Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?
You are about to become a PB legend!!!
If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.
I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
I agree. I can't see a reason for voting Labour in Scotland.
I was speaking to a family member in Scotland over the weekend on this subject. Life long labour voter, came from a working class, union background in the ayrshire mining villages.
I jokingly suggested that they'd be voting for Ed, I was stunned at the response, it was angry loathing, hatred even. Said they'd never vote for Labour as long as they lived, said there wasn't a single working class person in the labour party.
Real anger behind it, it was the same tone of voice they used 30 years ago to speak about Thatcher.
All doubt about the death of the Scottish labour party has been removed for me; there's no recovery or redemption for them. Wouldn't shock me to see them <20% on election day.
Pulpstar - do not much about how popular the local MP is in Barrow, but the town does have a history of voting out Labour if it worries about their commitment to nuclear subs (1983) and his majority is not enormous (5,200). Are there any other factors that would rule out a shock loss for Labour?
@Antifrank - I know it's very rude to ask, but how many noughts are you looking at if all your SNP eggs come home to roost?
You are about to become a PB legend!!!
If all my SNP eggs come home to roost, I don't think I'll make as much money as Calum, but it should be in five figures.
I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
I agree. I can't see a reason for voting Labour in Scotland.
I'm continuing to build my SLAB wipe-out position, last time I looked 0-5 SLAB seats was still 5/1 with WH.
Mr. Dave, a fair point, although low sales means lower impact and I imagine it'll be a point of pride that Ashcroft will want his book to perform well, even though financially it doesn't really matter to him.
I suspect he'll enjoy the process of researching, and shaping the book.
I believe he owns ConHome, Dods publishing, and all/part of Biteback so promoting the book to other political anoraks will not be a problem.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
That Alex Salmond, what an ineffectual failure.
Alex Salmond is rubbish and a vote loser.
The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
I haven't seen the demographics, but IIRC Salmond always had a problem with women voters - something Sturgeon may not suffer from.....
I've been keeping an eye on this, I think ignoring the female vote and chasing the lost 120,000 male votes has been SLAB/Murphy's biggest mistake. Historically SLAB's vote was 55% female and 45% male, the SNP being the other way around. Now SLAB is 50/50, I think Murphy's increasingly aggressive approach will lose SLAB yet more of it's female base.
Glasgow has 2 highest female population constituencies in UK, according to a tweet by Gerry Hasan yesterday.
Pulpstar - do not much about how popular the local MP is in Barrow, but the town does have a history of voting out Labour if it worries about their commitment to nuclear subs (1983) and his majority is not enormous (5,200). Are there any other factors that would rule out a shock loss for Labour?
The local MP has been very very vocal in his support for Trident. If Labour ditch it I can see him running and winning as an independent or possibly UKIP.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats. Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
Pulpstar - do not much about how popular the local MP is in Barrow, but the town does have a history of voting out Labour if it worries about their commitment to nuclear subs (1983) and his majority is not enormous (5,200). Are there any other factors that would rule out a shock loss for Labour?
The local MP has been very very vocal in his support for Trident. If Labour ditch it I can see him running and winning as an independent or possibly UKIP.
John Woodcock would not be seen dead running as UKIP
Lib Lab Coalition not likely whilst Nick is in charge?
I wouldn't read that into it. The LibDem position is that Labour would mortgage The Queen and the Tories would feed the NHS to pigs, but you can stop either of these calamities happening by giving the LibDems a blocking minority.
In reality Labour would be constrained by the financial markets and are doomed to disappoint their base, so it wouldn't be a problem for them having the LibDems there taking the credit/blame for tight public spending.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
Glasgow NE Dunfermline West Fife East Renfrewshire Rutherglen & Hamilton West Edinburgh South Edinburgh North & Leith East Lothian Glenrothes.
And at best for Labour, every one of those is hyper-marginal....
Scottish seats sorted in order of predicted majority if SNP get 46% Scottish seats sorted by predicted majority At 52% even Glasgow NE and Orkney & Shetland would be vulnerable..
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats. Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
I am still sticking to 38 LD seats
My switching model is currently showing 33 LD seats, including 3 in Scotland.
Con 255 Lab 284 including 2 in Scotland (Renfrew and Glasgow NE) UKIP 2 Grn 1 SNP 54
Apols for not responding to PBers but there are such people as clients.
Our people are mainly from western Europe, with one from India, one from West Africa and one from USA. Their problems are twofold:
(i) If you work really hard to earn more and put in the extra hpurs, why should that extra effort be taxed disproportionately. If it is then there is no purpose in working hard - just do your 9-5.
(ii) They are horrified by the lack of aspiration for excellence in much of the state education and health systems. As both our African and Indian people asked, "Why do you employ truancy officers?", as often in their countries education is not free and children just crave education.
Pulpstar - do not much about how popular the local MP is in Barrow, but the town does have a history of voting out Labour if it worries about their commitment to nuclear subs (1983) and his majority is not enormous (5,200). Are there any other factors that would rule out a shock loss for Labour?
The local MP has been very very vocal in his support for Trident. If Labour ditch it I can see him running and winning as an independent or possibly UKIP.
John Woodcock would not be seen dead running as UKIP
Independent then. He won't countenance the abandonment of trident.
Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour · 58s59 seconds ago Labour will protect the principle of media plurality so that no media outlet can get too big Sent from my iPhone specially for you
An increase of 4.2% per annum from the current rate. Roughly speaking I thought the long-term assumption was that wages grow at 4% per year (though that hasn't been the case for a while), so it's a relatively modest commitment.
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
To be fair to Scottish Labour, in which order would you prioritise their seats? The nature of the psephological upheaval is that it's hard to tell which are their safest seats now.
Glasgow NE Dunfermline West Fife East Renfrewshire Rutherglen & Hamilton West Edinburgh South Edinburgh North & Leith East Lothian Glenrothes.
And at best for Labour, every one of those is hyper-marginal....
Scottish seats sorted in order of predicted majority if SNP get 46% Scottish seats sorted by predicted majority At 52% even Glasgow NE and Orkney & Shetland would be vulnerable..
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats. Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
I am still sticking to 38 LD seats
My switching model is currently showing 33 LD seats, including 3 in Scotland.
Con 255 Lab 284 including 2 in Scotland (Renfrew and Glasgow NE) UKIP 2 Grn 1 SNP 54
Chuffing Nora. All our bases are belong to Nicola.
59 out of 59 on that?
The Lib Dems have doubled their support...
Their targetting efforts are probably a damn sight better than Labours's too. They'll be working the following priority with any sense:
Orkney (It is NOT safe)... Ross Skye Berwickshire Roxburgh Caithness Gordon
I was pilloried on here last week when i mentioned that a LibDem big wig had told we that they confidently expected to win at least 35 seats. On saturday i had another conversation with a libdem Lord who informed me that they seriously think they can get 42 seats. Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
I am still sticking to 38 LD seats
My switching model is currently showing 33 LD seats, including 3 in Scotland.
Con 255 Lab 284 including 2 in Scotland (Renfrew and Glasgow NE) UKIP 2 Grn 1 SNP 54
Our four million pound turnover company that employs over 20 people and that has been built from scratch since 2003 will not be leaving no matter who wins next month. Good luck to Financier and others, though, in their never-ending quest to find the lowest taxes and least regulation.
Given your previous words on how you would not vote Labour if Balls was involved (as a result of your disgust at the McBride scandal), how do you explain your increasingly shrill support for Labour?
And are you really sure that Ed Miliband and Ed Balls understands enough about business to create an environment under which your business will continue to prosper?
(And 'OK' is not an answer).
I disagree with your fundamental premise. I am not a Labour shrill. My vote is not for Labour, but against the Tories, with whom I have a fundamental philosophical difference. In my constituency to get rid of the Tory MP you vote Labour. I do it with the belief that Labour will not form the next government, but that every vote is vital to prevent a de facto Tory majority that will take this country down a path that I don't want it to follow. FPTP forces these choices. I don't think any government will make much difference to our business. We are UK based and are committed to the UK but operate globally, mostly outside the UK and the decisions we make will determine how we fare. We began and thrived under the last Labour government and have continued to do well under the Coalition.
I said you were being 'shrill', not that you were a 'shill'. There's an important difference which I think you know, despite your mangled sentence.
There are plenty of other choices. You said you would not vote for Labour in this situation, and now you will, and your only excuse is hatred.
He should go further if he wants to win commuting seats.
Ticket prices should be going up, not down, in order to pay Network Rail a bigger network subsidy.
Supply cannot meet demand. Artificially keeping prices low whilst demand continues to escalate - and is forecast to continue escalating - is economic madness whilst NR has a £40-50 billion albatross around its neck.
(Edit: and before anyone says, I said exactly the same thing when th Conservatives announced it).
Our four million pound turnover company that employs over 20 people and that has been built from scratch since 2003 will not be leaving no matter who wins next month. Good luck to Financier and others, though, in their never-ending quest to find the lowest taxes and least regulation.
Given your previous words on how you would not vote Labour if Balls was involved (as a result of your disgust at the McBride scandal), how do you explain your increasingly shrill support for Labour?
And are you really sure that Ed Miliband and Ed Balls understands enough about business to create an environment under which your business will continue to prosper?
(And 'OK' is not an answer).
I disagree with your fundamental premise. I am not a Labour shrill. My vote is not for Labour, but against the Tories, with whom I have a fundamental philosophical difference. In my constituency to get rid of the Tory MP you vote Labour. I do it with the belief that Labour will not form the next government, but that every vote is vital to prevent a de facto Tory majority that will take this country down a path that I don't want it to follow. FPTP forces these choices. I don't think any government will make much difference to our business. We are UK based and are committed to the UK but operate globally, mostly outside the UK and the decisions we make will determine how we fare. We began and thrived under the last Labour government and have continued to do well under the Coalition.
I said you were being 'shrill', not that you were a 'shill'. There's an important difference which I think you know, despite your mangled sentence.
There are plenty of other choices. You said you would not vote for Labour in this situation, and now you will, and your only excuse is hatred.
Comments
This poll is bad for Dave's chances as the yellow peril and Conservatives go to possibly 1 or 2 seats.
Labour - fiscal responsibility a risky approach, but they have started the better campaign wise. The main risks are will anyone believe them, and if they do, will those intending Labour because of anti-austerity, or desire for more investment abandon them and go elsewhere or think 'might as well stick with the Tories then, they have the austerity track record'. I'd say their best bet is probably to go on a positive footing, stay above the melee if they can and go for 35-36% which will see Ed in number 10.
Tories - IHT is a bit disappointing. Promised and not delivered already, a bit like Clegg going on tuition fees, although not quite as uturnable! Disappointing campaign so far south of the border, they look 97 dog tired to me, not 92 hungry, coalition and compromise has taken the fire out of their bellies a little too much. NHS is wise, distance themselves from the preconception, but needs George to have his sums better prepped for interviews with wobbly arms Marr. They need to be far more brazen and try and rather disingenuously 'own' the personal allowance and hammer on simplification of the tax system. They also need to run silent on welfare. They will win no votes on it, as people want the bill down but don't want the stigma of being benefit bashers, or to be seen to be trumpeting it. They also need to grow a set on defence and stump up the cash if they don't want the Tufton Buftons to decamp en masse to Farage. They need 36-37% realistically to be able to govern without it all falling apart quickly. Hammering on the Labour economic chaos door will help to weaken the effect of the Budget responsibility lock of the reds.
Scotland - SNP to take 40 plus, Tories will get 2 seats - Mundell to cling on and Blues take Berwickshire etc. IF they can get 19% they might squeak a tactical win in Dumfries and Galloway., but I think the SNP tide is too strong there (although see Indy ref result etc)
London - Tory bloodbath. There's your PM decider - can the Tories stop their Capital capitulation and shore up the Lib Dems where they are out of it? It's going to come down to a dozen London seats for me with the big two on around 275 each, plus or minus 15.
As for me, count me out of Red, Blue, Yellow or Purple, I'm done with politics as usual. Labour betrayed the working classes, The Liberals area busted flush, UKIP are not worth considering and the Tory philosophy of trickle down economics whether they truly believe in it or not, does not work. It's tough out here, and rich buggers are getting richer without passing down the growth and benefit, Banks are not playing ball, lending is through the floor and the whole thing is waiting to come crashing down around whoever is PMs ears by late 2016 (at the latest IMO). So I'm with Natalie for this one, Greens to have as many seats in England as Tories in Scotland, you heard it here first .
P.s. Betting tip - get on Jess Asato for Norwich North/Lab
Labour's demise in Scotland makes it REALLY helpful to push the "Ed in Alex's pocket" line on the doorstep for the next 3 weeks. So a double whammy for Labour.
Very good post. Some issues with time horizons considerably longer then 5 years need to be looked at outside the bear pit of party politics. The sacred cow that is the NHS, which paralyses all politicians into making open ended funding commitments to a system which is in dire need of reform and a clear long term strategy, deserves better.
And almost everyone in the country is a massive fan of the NHS in principle, so would this really be so difficult or controversial?
The SNP only started surging after he quit as leader.
Income tax is not "the tax take".
Also you can get the share of income tax paid by the 1pc to rise by allowing inequality to let rip.
Basically what happens under Tories.
I keep wondering whether I should start hedging, but I've yet to see anything that makes me feel that I should. The odds on the SNP all over the place still look good to me.
@MrHarryCole: Interesting analogy from a LibDem leader... https://t.co/HS6GmgtcS6
£90bn spent on Trident over 30 years: "unaffordable"
£180bn extra spending over 4 years: "very modest" #VictoriaLive
Dunfermline West Fife
East Renfrewshire
Rutherglen & Hamilton West
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh North & Leith
East Lothian
Glenrothes.
"Make Westminster honour their Vow. Vote Scotland. Vote SNP."
It appeals to the YESsers. It appeals to the "No, but...." brigade, who didn't want independence but wanted more autonomy. Together they will total a very significant majority of Scots.
@NadineDorriesMP: Labour supporters screaming at me as I get post op Mum into wheelchair in Bedford hospital . Screamed at lifelong teacher Mum #shameful
@NadineDorriesMP: Patrick Hall, you need to control you sticker wearing activists
@NadineDorriesMP: Literally screamed at top of voices at Mum, 'should be ashamed using NHS ' Disgusting. Left her shaken and upset 3 weeks post heart surgery
And I wonder if you underestimate the achievement of Messrs Brown, Cameron and Miliband with their Vow, and Mr Cameron's tearing it up the morning after the indyref vote. That is on the same timescale and worth considering as a factor.
But can the Lab get more than Con without Scotland.
They did so decisively in 97,01 and 05.
Make of it what you will but their confidence is a bit scary...
Blair did.
@robfordmancs: % agree "when people criticise my party it feels like a personal insult" SNP 52% all GB wide parties 25% or below
Probably time to start ignoring UNS within Scotland too - on these figures the SNP are going to get 110% of the vote in Dundee.
The disgraceful scenes at yesterday's cycle race in France deserve prosecution. Any cyclist who crossed after the barriers went down should be disqualified from the race and banned for a number of months.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/32284180
I have talked to drivers who have hit people on the tracks, and it lives with them forever. Likewise, a friend had to pick up the pieces - literally - from trackside and from under trains.
Letting them get away with this sends utterly the wrong message
http://www.lordashcroft.com/2015/04/presenting-my-unauthorised-biography-of-cameron-call-me-dave-2/
Also there are barely any tacticals - so with this in mind
I've gone back in on Coatbridge (@6-5) , shifting all my green back onto the SNP there...
I'll regard the 2% overround and liquidity loss paid between 8-11 and 6-5 as the feartie tax.
You can get 4/6 on the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts. This requires a 17.3% swing, but Lord Ashcroft's poll suggested that they would get this, and the local MP came close to deselection even before the polling earthquake.
Looking through the regionals, labour's uptick since 2010 seems largely in SE, E and SW - 10% - but a lot of it is pretty futile.
Miliband Minor needs the right wing to remain split to have any chance of becoming PM Minor.
If the Tory defectors to UKIP go back, may 7th will be carnage for Labour.
But the Barrow MP is alongside Danczuk to be top of my awkward squad list come Ed's reign.
There are plenty of other choices. You said you would not vote for Labour in this situation, and now you will, and your only excuse is hatred.
The tactical problem in Dunbartonshire is hilarious for unionist voters.
Lib Lab Coalition not likely whilst Nick is in charge?
I guess now he can add a few chapters on the election - but if Ed is PM then it will be all about Boris and this book will sell 3 copies.
Labour won't be winning this and neither will the Tories.
I jokingly suggested that they'd be voting for Ed, I was stunned at the response, it was angry loathing, hatred even. Said they'd never vote for Labour as long as they lived, said there wasn't a single working class person in the labour party.
Real anger behind it, it was the same tone of voice they used 30 years ago to speak about Thatcher.
All doubt about the death of the Scottish labour party has been removed for me; there's no recovery or redemption for them. Wouldn't shock me to see them <20% on election day.
I believe he owns ConHome, Dods publishing, and all/part of Biteback so promoting the book to other political anoraks will not be a problem.
In reality Labour would be constrained by the financial markets and are doomed to disappoint their base, so it wouldn't be a problem for them having the LibDems there taking the credit/blame for tight public spending.
Con 255
Lab 284 including 2 in Scotland (Renfrew and Glasgow NE)
UKIP 2
Grn 1
SNP 54
Our people are mainly from western Europe, with one from India, one from West Africa and one from USA. Their problems are twofold:
(i) If you work really hard to earn more and put in the extra hpurs, why should that extra effort be taxed disproportionately. If it is then there is no purpose in working hard - just do your 9-5.
(ii) They are horrified by the lack of aspiration for excellence in much of the state education and health systems. As both our African and Indian people asked, "Why do you employ truancy officers?", as often in their countries education is not free and children just crave education.
Labour will protect the principle of media plurality so
that no media outlet can get too big
Sent from my iPhone specially for you
Presumably this does not include the BBC though.
Supply cannot meet demand. Artificially keeping prices low whilst demand continues to escalate - and is forecast to continue escalating - is economic madness whilst NR has a £40-50 billion albatross around its neck.
(Edit: and before anyone says, I said exactly the same thing when th Conservatives announced it).