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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying a poll that shows them losing a seat they are expected to win

This polling doesn’t come as a surprise, prior to the by-election last year, Lord Ashcroft’s polling found Reckless winning the by-election but losing at the general election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited April 2015
    Hmm. Ukip certainly haven't peaked up in the polls in the way that I expected them to.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    7-2 for UKIP to win 1 seat is too short.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Carswell will hold Clacton even when hell suffers a catastrophic climate event.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mr Reckless has already won that seat twice. Once under Conservative Party colours, and once as the UKIP candidate.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    @TCP - FYI, in 2012, the average cost of a land plot for a single build in London (1/15 of a hectare) was £430,000.

    http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-the-shaky-foundations-of-the-governments-latest-grand-design/10583

    I doubt prices have fallen that much since.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    anotherDave said:

    Mr Reckless has already won that seat twice. Once under Conservative Party colours, and once as the UKIP candidate.

    He's also lost the predecessor seat twice.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    anotherDave said:

    Mr Reckless has already won that seat twice. Once under Conservative Party colours, and once as the UKIP candidate.

    He's also lost the predecessor seat twice.
    Then he's improving rather than declining!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    7th yeah
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The Greens seem a bit confused as to whether they are proposing a 60% tax rate of tax to raise money, or as a "deterrent" to paying high salaries.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Grandiose said:

    Carswell will hold Clacton even when hell suffers a catastrophic climate event.

    Certainly. He is a genuinely popular MP and speaks very well on all manner of subjects. One of Robin Hunter-Clarke, Farage, Aker, Reckless, Ayling or Luder should be able to hose up too though.

    Ayling is important in this analysis, essentially because if Labour fade she is more likely to get in than some of the others facing principally Conservative opponents.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    FPT
    JohnLilburne said:

    » show previous quotes
    I live on the Surrey/Hanmpshire border and it is quite nice round here too, in fact Hart district council keeps on getting voted the best place to live in the UK. Good transport links, and it is good having Dorset as the next county and the West Country a couple of hours' drive away. It certainly feels that you are just on the edge of the London built-up area.

    If I had to move I think it would be to Dorset. Mind you I would not be able to afford it most likely , I doubt property there is very reasonable.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited April 2015
    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    The French Funk Federation, FFF, AKA the Federation Francaise de Funk

    EDIT. First heard them on Radio Forth, on a show with Bruce Findlay (One time manager of Simple Minds et al)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    Plastic Bertrand is a cracker
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

    In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    Carswell to end up as the lonely representative in Westminster. Going to make it difficult for UKIP to stop him making their policy on the hoof.

    It will end in tears.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    We've come a long way haven't we. Some excitable souls were predicting 10-20 Ukip gains.

    I wonder how long Carswell will stay in the party when he realises he will be on his own.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    DavidL said:

    UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

    In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.

    Might reach panda level then David
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Worth noting that UKIP numbers have stabilised/increased slightly since the last debate, and with another debate to come a further small boost seems likely. Clacton is of course in the bag and Thanet and Thurrock are looking likely bar a collapse. I'm hearing from Castle Point that they're easing ahead there too.
    Rochester though will be very tough for UKIP and the only saving grace is how weak Tolhurst is. Is there any evidence of this poll? Be interested to know which pollster it is with.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I agree we need to see figures, if "narrowly behind" is 1/2% with UKIP ahead amongst all respondents, it would make it too close to call, which is what the betting odds indicate anyway.

    The geography of Rochester and Strood is that Strood is now a fiercely UKIP area, whilst Rochester and the outer areas are Conservative, GOTV on the day will be crucial.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Surely not yet another picture of a mirthful Farage in a Pub clutching the inevitable pint glass of beer? Clearly he's not going after the teetotal vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Only thing funnier than Nicola Sturgeon losing this BBC debate so spectacularly, is Nats on Twitter saying defeat unfair.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @daily_politics: Scottish #leadersdebate with @NicolaSturgeon @RuthDavidsonMSP @JimForScotland @willie_rennie can be seen UK-wide at 3.35pm on @bbcdemlive
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    DavidL said:

    UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

    In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.

    I heard that line being pushed. It is even more ridiculous than Scottish Labour's largest party bollocks. That at least has some very extreme edge case relevance. The average voter probably wouldn't put these scenarios in the sub 1% category where they belong though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

    In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.

    Might reach panda level then David
    I am just relieved that they have been as successful at procreating as the SNP are at economics. We certainly would not have wanted the bar to get any higher.

    Ruth said in her speech at the Christmas dinner in Dundee that her priority for this year was to "get rid of the bloody panda joke".

    But I don't see UKIP, especially with that embarrassment of an MEP, being any help.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    By the way I still don't understand some Tory pessimism in the papers and the media's latest narrative that "the Tory campaign is in tatters". The party has been unlucky in that so many online polls came out shortly after Labour's non-scrapping of non-doms (they generally dominated the first half of the week) and Labour have been pushing at the "panicky" and "turmoil" line ever since.

    But I suppose it suits the Tories for some in the electorate to believe the race is closer than it appears.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2015
    malcolmg said:

    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    Plastic Bertrand is a cracker
    Depending on what "French" you like ;) Denez Prigent singing in Breton is rather special.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    @ Malcolm and Scott
    Thanks, I'll look into those two.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited April 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Only thing funnier than Nicola Sturgeon losing this BBC debate so spectacularly, is Nats on Twitter saying defeat unfair.

    I thought Sturgeon was dismal in the first debate and was discombobulated when she was widely praised.
    I'm relieved to see that it's now generally recognized that she's useless and not up to it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    Scott_P said:

    @daily_politics: Scottish #leadersdebate with @NicolaSturgeon @RuthDavidsonMSP @JimForScotland @willie_rennie can be seen UK-wide at 3.35pm on @bbcdemlive

    To anyone with a braincell, do not watch it , 3 losers haranguing someone they don't like with a useless buffoon as ringmaster. You will have more fun cutting your toes off, just a shouting match. Can only be good for SNP as people see how nasty the unionists really are, what they lack in style and charisma they make up for in noise levels.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    If you think UKIP are off the boil, there are some better bets out there.

    Great Grimsby Labour @ 4-6

    Thurrock Labour @ 12-5 and Conservative @ 5-1.

    The 7-2 on 1 seat is skinny at the moment, G Grimsby is a 105% book if you include the Tories or 100% if you don't, Thurrock has a 4% under-round on Lab, Con, UKIP.

    Conservative @ 5-1 in Thurrock might be the best individual value bet of the lot, but it is hard to tell and you can take both that and Labour if you like.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    Indigo said:

    malcolmg said:

    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    Plastic Bertrand is a cracker
    Depending on what "French" you like ;) Denez Prigent singing in Breton is rather special.
    I was being a bit tongue in cheek , though the one song was very pleasant.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Scott_P

    Not Iain Martin again. Remember Scot P you cited him saying exactly the same thing about the TV debates during the week. However the result according to YouGov from the public was 56 PER CENT Sturgeon victory, 13 PER CENT Davidson and 12 PER CENT Murphy!

    This one of BBC would have exactly the same order. Sturgeon would be first, Davidson second Murphy third and Rennie statistically insignificant. The reason is obvious. Sturgeon is pleasant and plain spoken, Davidson comes across realatively well for a Tory and Murphy is simply obnoxious.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Only thing funnier than Nicola Sturgeon losing this BBC debate so spectacularly, is Nats on Twitter saying defeat unfair.

    I thought Sturgeon was dismal in the first debate and was discombobulated when she was widely praised.
    I'm relieved to see that it's now generally recognized that she's useless and not up to it.
    LOL, Only someone as dim as Monica could come out with bilge like that. Discombobulation is too good for you.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    My slightly hesitant suggested Bet of the Week (posted last night) was for the LibDems to out vote UKIP in the GE, available from Ladbrokes at odds of 5/2.
    DYOR.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    Brom said:

    Worth noting that UKIP numbers have stabilised/increased slightly since the last debate, and with another debate to come a further small boost seems likely. Clacton is of course in the bag and Thanet and Thurrock are looking likely bar a collapse. I'm hearing from Castle Point that they're easing ahead there too.
    Rochester though will be very tough for UKIP and the only saving grace is how weak Tolhurst is. Is there any evidence of this poll? Be interested to know which pollster it is with.

    The Thanet South poll was conducted by ComRes.

    UKIP/Alan Bown generally use Survation
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    Before rushing to fill your boots with Tory bets, the following may be worth noting:

    https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/587159799349043200

    It will undoubtedly be close though.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    edited April 2015
    anotherDave said:

    @ Malcolm and Scott
    Thanks, I'll look into those two.

    Vanessa Paradis is French , she must have material in her native language.

    PS you could go back to the past and have charles Aznavour or Serge gainsbourg thogh depends what you are looking for
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    malcolmg said:

    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    Plastic Bertrand is a cracker
    Depending on what "French" you like ;) Denez Prigent singing in Breton is rather special.
    I was being a bit tongue in cheek , though the one song was very pleasant.
    I wasn't having a go, I was joking that my suggestion who sings in Breton which is an all but dead language with about a quarter the number of native speakers as Welsh might not be everyone's definition of French ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    MP_SE said:

    Before rushing to fill your boots with Tory bets, the following may be worth noting:

    https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/587159799349043200

    It will undoubtedly be close though.

    I've got a fairly balanced book on Rochester and I'm keeping it that way.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    If you think UKIP are off the boil, there are some better bets out there.

    Great Grimsby Labour @ 4-6

    Thurrock Labour @ 12-5 and Conservative @ 5-1.

    The 7-2 on 1 seat is skinny at the moment, G Grimsby is a 105% book if you include the Tories or 100% if you don't, Thurrock has a 4% under-round on Lab, Con, UKIP.

    Conservative @ 5-1 in Thurrock might be the best individual value bet of the lot, but it is hard to tell and you can take both that and Labour if you like.

    Thanks for that - Grimsby looks like decent value.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Indigo said:

    malcolmg said:

    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    Plastic Bertrand is a cracker
    Depending on what "French" you like ;) Denez Prigent singing in Breton is rather special.
    Family history is that one welsh-speaking great-great uncle and a Breton-speaking frenchman were the French-English translation department of a POW camp.

    So I shall _have_ to like that one. :-)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

    https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

    To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    @Peter_From_Putney No worries. If you fancy UKIP generally I reckon 6-1 Heywood and Middleton is decent too. Personally I think UKIP are neither doing awfully nor great and are heading for 4 seats.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Scott_P said:

    @daily_politics: Scottish #leadersdebate with @NicolaSturgeon @RuthDavidsonMSP @JimForScotland @willie_rennie can be seen UK-wide at 3.35pm on @bbcdemlive

    Thanks Scott much appreciated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    On my Twitter feed all the Labour activity seems to be taking place in London, with some token Scottish efforts.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2015
    malcolmg said:

    anotherDave said:

    @ Malcolm and Scott
    Thanks, I'll look into those two.

    Vanessa Paradis is French , she must have material in her native language.

    PS you could go back to the past and have charles Aznavour or Serge gainsbourg thogh depends what you are looking for
    My favourite song so far is Stacey Kent's cover of Mr Gainsbourg's 'Ces petits riens', I didn't much like him singing it though ;-)

    youtu.be/iUzGJx9fttQ
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    CarlottaVance said:

    Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

    twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

    To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

    The UK dependencies loss will be Singapore's gain.
  • marktheowlmarktheowl Posts: 169
    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    Sebastien Tellier.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    @daily_politics: Scottish #leadersdebate with @NicolaSturgeon @RuthDavidsonMSP @JimForScotland @willie_rennie can be seen UK-wide at 3.35pm on @bbcdemlive

    To anyone with a braincell, do not watch it , 3 losers haranguing someone they don't like with a useless buffoon as ringmaster. You will have more fun cutting your toes off, just a shouting match. Can only be good for SNP as people see how nasty the unionists really are, what they lack in style and charisma they make up for in noise levels.
    LOL after the way you spoke to me this morning (FPT), its hilarious to hear you complain about people being nasty. Couldn't make it up.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    @Peter_From_Putney No worries. If you fancy UKIP generally I reckon 6-1 Heywood and Middleton is decent too. Personally I think UKIP are neither doing awfully nor great and are heading for 4 seats.

    No ..... I don't fancy UKIP generally! - I've just backed Labour to win Grimsby.
    Four seats is topside imho, more likely two, i.e. Carswell and a n other.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Plato said:

    Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.

    Plato I have just finished watching House of Cards..

    Let me know if you recommend it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    More MI5 plants:

    Margaret Curran, the shadow Scottish secretary, is knocking on doors in her efforts to be re-elected as Labour MP for Glasgow East. But there’s an addition to the usual campaign scene: Mrs Curran is being “hunted” (their word) by a pair of aggressive Scottish National Party activists.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11529177/The-bullying-behind-the-SNPs-smiles.html
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    marktheowl said:

    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    Sebastien Tellier.
    Thanks Mark.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

    In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.

    Might reach panda level then David
    I am just relieved that they have been as successful at procreating as the SNP are at economics. We certainly would not have wanted the bar to get any higher.

    Ruth said in her speech at the Christmas dinner in Dundee that her priority for this year was to "get rid of the bloody panda joke".

    But I don't see UKIP, especially with that embarrassment of an MEP, being any help.
    He had an interview with the Sunday Herald, reported today, which might be of interest.

    And if you believe some of the polls carry through to the election then we might end up with a second, Red Panda, joke with the obvious other party (there being 4 of them in Scotland AFAIK, at the Highland Wildlife Park). All the same, I'd be surprised if it gets that far.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    CarlottaVance said:

    Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

    https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

    To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

    I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

    Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

    The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

    I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

    He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    Which HoC have you seen? I loved them all though I found S3 a bit odd.

    Have you tried Bosch? I really liked that.

    I will let you know about DareDevil. EDIT It's got Vincent D'Onofrio in it - Hell Yes! I loved him in Law & Order and MiB.
    Yorkcity said:

    Plato said:

    Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.

    Plato I have just finished watching House of Cards..

    Let me know if you recommend it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The last poll (South Thanet) wasn't even carried out on behalf of Ukip was it?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    isam said:

    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

    How can a party get 4.5 seats? Is the proposed bet for under 5?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    JohnO said:

    isam said:

    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

    How can a party get 4.5 seats? Is the proposed bet for under 5?
    No party can of course win half a seat, it is how all under over lines are set :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,542
    Are there any details about this poll?

    FWIW, a recent poll gave UKIP 24% across Kent. I imagine that percentage would be higher in the eight Thames Estuary/North Kent seats.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Plato said:

    Which HoC have you seen? I loved them all though I found S3 a bit odd.

    Have you tried Bosch? I really liked that.

    I will let you know about DareDevil. EDIT It's got Vincent D'Onofrio in it - Hell Yes! I loved him in Law & Order and MiB.

    Yorkcity said:

    Plato said:

    Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.

    Plato I have just finished watching House of Cards..

    Let me know if you recommend it.
    Thanks

    I have just finished S3 of HOC, I agree with you.
    Not tried Bosch.
    Just started Orange is the New Black.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    isam said:

    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

    It's a nice price but not for me ;)

    Betway are 13-10 the other side just fyi...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,214
    The Tory candidate for City of Durham popped up on the Sunday Politics local bit. It was like watching an episode of Made in Chelsea.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    Francoise Hardy is incomparable. And a good singer too ;)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SR6gL_jW8hg
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    I gave in with OITNB after about 5 shows. There's Bloodlines to try to. I HATED the Kimmy Thingy Show. I tried 4 and detested it. It's all Tiny Fey cleverdickery and visually hard on the eyes. Nice idea, all jazz hands executed.

    PS Jessica from True Blood is in the pilot of DareDevil - I love that actress.
    Yorkcity said:

    Plato said:

    Which HoC have you seen? I loved them all though I found S3 a bit odd.

    Have you tried Bosch? I really liked that.

    I will let you know about DareDevil. EDIT It's got Vincent D'Onofrio in it - Hell Yes! I loved him in Law & Order and MiB.

    Yorkcity said:

    Plato said:

    Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.

    Plato I have just finished watching House of Cards..

    Let me know if you recommend it.
    Thanks

    I have just finished S3 of HOC, I agree with you.
    Not tried Bosch.
    Just started Orange is the New Black.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Pulpstar said:

    JohnO said:

    isam said:

    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

    How can a party get 4.5 seats? Is the proposed bet for under 5?
    No party can of course win half a seat, it is how all under over lines are set :)
    Thanks. Hmm, I already have three bets with isam, one of which I am pretty sure of winning (UKIP not winning Rotherham), another about which I am rather less confident (kippers below 9%,) with the third being that the LibDems will secure 4 times (I think but will need to check) more seat than UKIP.

    If this wager is that I win if UKIP gets 5 or fewer MPs, then I'm tempted. Perhaps he will clarify.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    Sandy She often comments on conservativehome, an Oxbridge educated freelance musician I gather, but she is from Durham and writes well
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JohnO said:

    isam said:

    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

    How can a party get 4.5 seats? Is the proposed bet for under 5?
    It's to avoid dead heats.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Millsy

    'We've come a long way haven't we. Some excitable souls were predicting 10-20 Ukip gains.'

    MikeK is still forecasting 55 UKIP MP's ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

    Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


    @JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

    https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

    To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

    I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

    Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

    The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

    I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

    He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.
    Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

    1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
    2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,160
    Ha, undecided Edinburgh SW voter on World at One swithering between SNP & Conservative. SNPout!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    FTP - MalcolmG "I live in Ayrshire , I did live in Hampshire some years ago , spent a year in the Winchester Royal Hotel which was very pleasant and also had a house in Alresford and was in Chandler's Ford as well. Also lived in Little Gaddesden and Hemel Hempstead at other times.
    Was around a big recession though and lost my shirt, had to give away my house in Alresford which whilst a bad decision was only thing I could do at the time. Hampshire was very nice but busy, Alresford was superb place to live."

    Malcolm, can't talk for long as I'm in the middle of cooking Sunday roast (duck breasts in plum sauce, since you ask) but I live in rural Hampshire too. I was born and brought up here.

    I absolutely love it. Alresford is one of my favourite places. I'm sorry to hear you lost your house.

    You may have heard of a little place called Odiham? Very similar, in the north of the county.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    CarlottaVance said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

    https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

    To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

    I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

    Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

    The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

    I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

    He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.
    Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

    1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
    2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....
    Indeed, who needs the EU to wreck the City of London, just elect Miliband.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,214
    HYUFD said:

    Sandy She often comments on conservativehome, an Oxbridge educated freelance musician I gather, but she is from Durham and writes well

    From Durham!?! Her accent certainly isn't!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ha, undecided Edinburgh SW voter on World at One swithering between SNP & Conservative. SNPout!

    He needs to tactically vote SNP to keep Labour out.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

    I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?

    Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

    I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?

    Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.
    Oky doke
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    anotherDave said:

    Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

    So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

    Stereolab mostly in english with french intonation, but have a few songs with french lyrics.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Amazing scenes in the Paris-Roubaix when the level-crossing barrier came down in the middle of the peleton. Some riders managed to duck under as they came down, many others wiggled around them as the police tried to stop them just before the express came through.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Conservatives propose to reduce the annual allowance to £10,000 once income reaches £210,000. In other words 50p of allowance will be lost for every additional £1 of income in a range between £150,000 and £210,000. For anyone who continued to put their income into a pension that would effectively raise their marginal income tax rate to 67.5%.

    http://election2015.ifs.org.uk/article/conservative-and-labour-proposals-to-cut-pensions-tax-relief-for-those-with-an-income-above-150-000
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2015
    isam said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

    I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?

    Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.
    Oky doke
    Agreed then? Happy to exchange details if you wish or go on trust if you wish.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,859
    How are UKIP 'burying' a private poll? Surely the point of a private poll is that it's private. I don't remember them revealing any private polling that showed them winning anything. Are all private polls of all parties that show them not ahead somewhere being 'buried'?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandy She often comments on conservativehome, an Oxbridge educated freelance musician I gather, but she is from Durham and writes well

    From Durham!?! Her accent certainly isn't!
    I was born in Durham City, and, apart from about five years in Cambridge and London, have lived here all my life. But I don’t have a Northern accent (my dad didn’t, my mum’s is slight, and Radio 4 is a constant in their house).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

    Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

    I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?

    Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.
    Oky doke
    Agreed then? Happy to exchange details if you wish or go on trust if you wish.
    Yes agreed, I trust you, let's see what happens!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    edited April 2015
    Sandy She was born there and her family were involved in the mining industry up there. Her parents were Durham Uni academics, and Durham is a posh Uni

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/08/rebecca-coulson-at-the-durham-miners-gala-echoes-of-the-past-meet-with-hope-for-the-future.html

    https://www.conservatives.com/OurTeam/Prospective_Parliamentary_Candidates/Coulson_Rebecca.aspx
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,859
    Indigo said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

    https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

    To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

    I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

    Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

    The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

    I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

    He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.
    Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

    1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
    2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....
    Indeed, who needs the EU to wreck the City of London, just elect Miliband.
    So what do you think three more bank holidays is going to do to the economy? The Tories have doubled the national debt and totally failed to bring down the structural deficit and they're acting like they've just won the lottery and have cash to splash. The fact that such a shower is the 'economic responsibility' option in this election is deeply depressing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Pulpstar said:

    According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

    Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


    @JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.

    On a very, very good night, they could also take Great Yarmouth, Dudley North, Boston & Skegness, Rother Valley, Cannock Chase, Plymouth Moor View, Thanet North, South Basildon & East Thurrock, Castle Point and to hold Rochester and Strood. And end up on 14 MPs.

    However, I don't think they are organised or focussed enough to do so. And the tactical votes won't necessarily work in their favour this year.

    In 2020, it could be a very different story. I'd probably back UKIP to obtain 10+ seats at that election.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Indigo said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

    https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

    To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

    I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

    Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

    The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

    I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

    He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.
    Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

    1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
    2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....
    Indeed, who needs the EU to wreck the City of London, just elect Miliband.
    So what do you think three more bank holidays is going to do to the economy?
    Is that a proposal, or are you referring to the three volunteering days?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Casino_Royale said:

    FTP - MalcolmG "I live in Ayrshire , I did live in Hampshire some years ago , spent a year in the Winchester Royal Hotel which was very pleasant and also had a house in Alresford and was in Chandler's Ford as well. Also lived in Little Gaddesden and Hemel Hempstead at other times.
    Was around a big recession though and lost my shirt, had to give away my house in Alresford which whilst a bad decision was only thing I could do at the time. Hampshire was very nice but busy, Alresford was superb place to live."

    Malcolm, can't talk for long as I'm in the middle of cooking Sunday roast (duck breasts in plum sauce, since you ask) but I live in rural Hampshire too. I was born and brought up here.

    I absolutely love it. Alresford is one of my favourite places. I'm sorry to hear you lost your house.

    You may have heard of a little place called Odiham? Very similar, in the north of the county.

    Great choice of village - have cousins living there
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

    Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


    @JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.

    On a very, very good night, they could also take Great Yarmouth, Dudley North, Boston & Skegness, Rother Valley, Cannock Chase, Plymouth Moor View, Thanet North, South Basildon & East Thurrock, Castle Point and to hold Rochester and Strood. And end up on 14 MPs.

    However, I don't think they are organised or focussed enough to do so. And the tactical votes won't necessarily work in their favour this year.

    In 2020, it could be a very different story. I'd probably back UKIP to obtain 10+ seats at that election.
    Pay attention - your plum sauce is boiling over.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

    Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


    @JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.

    By Grimsby is that Great Grimsby? UKIP haven't been ahead in any of the Ashcroft polls there so not sure why that'd be expected?

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Opinium really good for the Tories.Need more polls to get a clearer picture especially in Scotland
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,859
    edited April 2015
    JohnLilburne said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Indigo said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

    https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

    To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

    I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

    Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

    The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

    I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

    He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.
    Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

    1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
    2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....
    Indeed, who needs the EU to wreck the City of London, just elect Miliband.
    So what do you think three more bank holidays is going to do to the economy?
    Is that a proposal, or are you referring to the three volunteering days?

    Yes, that's exactly what I'm referring too. It's as bad as Labour's VAT cut, a naked bribe that is utterly economically destructive.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

    Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


    @JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.

    By Grimsby is that Great Grimsby? UKIP haven't been ahead in any of the Ashcroft polls there so not sure why that'd be expected?

    2010
    Lab 33 Ukip 6

    2014 poll
    Lab 38 Ukip 26

    2015 poll
    Lab 35 Ukip 34

    Looks like it could be quite close to me
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Yes, that's exactly what I'm referring too. It's as bad as Labour's VAT cut, a naked bribe that is utterly economically destructive.

    It has been welcomed by the CBI
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,214
    Pulpstar said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandy She often comments on conservativehome, an Oxbridge educated freelance musician I gather, but she is from Durham and writes well

    From Durham!?! Her accent certainly isn't!
    I was born in Durham City, and, apart from about five years in Cambridge and London, have lived here all my life. But I don’t have a Northern accent (my dad didn’t, my mum’s is slight, and Radio 4 is a constant in their house).
    There is a big difference between not having a Durham accent and talking like a Sloan.
This discussion has been closed.