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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying a poll that shows them losing a seat they are expected to win

This polling doesn’t come as a surprise, prior to the by-election last year, Lord Ashcroft’s polling found Reckless winning the by-election but losing at the general election.

Read the full story here

OblitusSumMe

Hmm. Ukip certainly haven't peaked up in the polls in the way that I expected them to.

Pulpstar

7-2 for UKIP to win 1 seat is too short.

Grandiose

Carswell will hold Clacton even when hell suffers a catastrophic climate event.

anotherDave

Mr Reckless has already won that seat twice. Once under Conservative Party colours, and once as the UKIP candidate.

SouthamObserver

@TCP - FYI, in 2012, the average cost of a land plot for a single build in London (1/15 of a hectare) was £430,000.

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-the-shaky-foundations-of-the-governments-latest-grand-design/10583

I doubt prices have fallen that much since.

TheScreamingEagles

anotherDave said:

Mr Reckless has already won that seat twice. Once under Conservative Party colours, and once as the UKIP candidate.

He's also lost the predecessor seat twice.

anotherDave

TheScreamingEagles said:

anotherDave said:

Mr Reckless has already won that seat twice. Once under Conservative Party colours, and once as the UKIP candidate.

He's also lost the predecessor seat twice.

Then he's improving rather than declining!

malcolmg

7th yeah

anotherDave

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

alex.

The Greens seem a bit confused as to whether they are proposing a 60% tax rate of tax to raise money, or as a "deterrent" to paying high salaries.

Pulpstar

Grandiose said:

Carswell will hold Clacton even when hell suffers a catastrophic climate event.

Certainly. He is a genuinely popular MP and speaks very well on all manner of subjects. One of Robin Hunter-Clarke, Farage, Aker, Reckless, Ayling or Luder should be able to hose up too though.

Ayling is important in this analysis, essentially because if Labour fade she is more likely to get in than some of the others facing principally Conservative opponents.

malcolmg

FPT
JohnLilburne said:

» show previous quotes
I live on the Surrey/Hanmpshire border and it is quite nice round here too, in fact Hart district council keeps on getting voted the best place to live in the UK. Good transport links, and it is good having Dorset as the next county and the West Country a couple of hours' drive away. It certainly feels that you are just on the edge of the London built-up area.

If I had to move I think it would be to Dorset. Mind you I would not be able to afford it most likely , I doubt property there is very reasonable.

Scott_P

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

The French Funk Federation, FFF, AKA the Federation Francaise de Funk

EDIT. First heard them on Radio Forth, on a show with Bruce Findlay (One time manager of Simple Minds et al)

malcolmg

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

Plastic Bertrand is a cracker

DavidL

UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.

MarqueeMark

Carswell to end up as the lonely representative in Westminster. Going to make it difficult for UKIP to stop him making their policy on the hoof.

It will end in tears.

Millsy

We've come a long way haven't we. Some excitable souls were predicting 10-20 Ukip gains.

I wonder how long Carswell will stay in the party when he realises he will be on his own.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.

Might reach panda level then David

Brom

Worth noting that UKIP numbers have stabilised/increased slightly since the last debate, and with another debate to come a further small boost seems likely. Clacton is of course in the bag and Thanet and Thurrock are looking likely bar a collapse. I'm hearing from Castle Point that they're easing ahead there too.
Rochester though will be very tough for UKIP and the only saving grace is how weak Tolhurst is. Is there any evidence of this poll? Be interested to know which pollster it is with.

Artist

I agree we need to see figures, if "narrowly behind" is 1/2% with UKIP ahead amongst all respondents, it would make it too close to call, which is what the betting odds indicate anyway.

The geography of Rochester and Strood is that Strood is now a fiercely UKIP area, whilst Rochester and the outer areas are Conservative, GOTV on the day will be crucial.

peter_from_putney

Surely not yet another picture of a mirthful Farage in a Pub clutching the inevitable pint glass of beer? Clearly he's not going after the teetotal vote.

Scott_P

@iainmartin1: Only thing funnier than Nicola Sturgeon losing this BBC debate so spectacularly, is Nats on Twitter saying defeat unfair.

Scott_P

@daily_politics: Scottish #leadersdebate with @NicolaSturgeon @RuthDavidsonMSP @JimForScotland @willie_rennie can be seen UK-wide at 3.35pm on @bbcdemlive

Pulpstar

DavidL said:

UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.

I heard that line being pushed. It is even more ridiculous than Scottish Labour's largest party bollocks. That at least has some very extreme edge case relevance. The average voter probably wouldn't put these scenarios in the sub 1% category where they belong though.

DavidL

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.

Might reach panda level then David

I am just relieved that they have been as successful at procreating as the SNP are at economics. We certainly would not have wanted the bar to get any higher.

Ruth said in her speech at the Christmas dinner in Dundee that her priority for this year was to "get rid of the bloody panda joke".

But I don't see UKIP, especially with that embarrassment of an MEP, being any help.

Millsy

By the way I still don't understand some Tory pessimism in the papers and the media's latest narrative that "the Tory campaign is in tatters". The party has been unlucky in that so many online polls came out shortly after Labour's non-scrapping of non-doms (they generally dominated the first half of the week) and Labour have been pushing at the "panicky" and "turmoil" line ever since.

But I suppose it suits the Tories for some in the electorate to believe the race is closer than it appears.

Indigo

malcolmg said:

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

Plastic Bertrand is a cracker

Depending on what "French" you like Denez Prigent singing in Breton is rather special.

anotherDave

@ Malcolm and Scott
Thanks, I'll look into those two.

MonikerDiCanio

Scott_P said:

@iainmartin1: Only thing funnier than Nicola Sturgeon losing this BBC debate so spectacularly, is Nats on Twitter saying defeat unfair.

I thought Sturgeon was dismal in the first debate and was discombobulated when she was widely praised.
I'm relieved to see that it's now generally recognized that she's useless and not up to it.

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

@daily_politics: Scottish #leadersdebate with @NicolaSturgeon @RuthDavidsonMSP @JimForScotland @willie_rennie can be seen UK-wide at 3.35pm on @bbcdemlive

To anyone with a braincell, do not watch it , 3 losers haranguing someone they don't like with a useless buffoon as ringmaster. You will have more fun cutting your toes off, just a shouting match. Can only be good for SNP as people see how nasty the unionists really are, what they lack in style and charisma they make up for in noise levels.

Pulpstar

If you think UKIP are off the boil, there are some better bets out there.

Great Grimsby Labour @ 4-6

Thurrock Labour @ 12-5 and Conservative @ 5-1.

The 7-2 on 1 seat is skinny at the moment, G Grimsby is a 105% book if you include the Tories or 100% if you don't, Thurrock has a 4% under-round on Lab, Con, UKIP.

Conservative @ 5-1 in Thurrock might be the best individual value bet of the lot, but it is hard to tell and you can take both that and Labour if you like.

malcolmg

Indigo said:

malcolmg said:

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

Plastic Bertrand is a cracker

Depending on what "French" you like Denez Prigent singing in Breton is rather special.

I was being a bit tongue in cheek , though the one song was very pleasant.

scotslass

Scott_P

Not Iain Martin again. Remember Scot P you cited him saying exactly the same thing about the TV debates during the week. However the result according to YouGov from the public was 56 PER CENT Sturgeon victory, 13 PER CENT Davidson and 12 PER CENT Murphy!

This one of BBC would have exactly the same order. Sturgeon would be first, Davidson second Murphy third and Rennie statistically insignificant. The reason is obvious. Sturgeon is pleasant and plain spoken, Davidson comes across realatively well for a Tory and Murphy is simply obnoxious.

malcolmg

MonikerDiCanio said:

Scott_P said:

@iainmartin1: Only thing funnier than Nicola Sturgeon losing this BBC debate so spectacularly, is Nats on Twitter saying defeat unfair.

I thought Sturgeon was dismal in the first debate and was discombobulated when she was widely praised.
I'm relieved to see that it's now generally recognized that she's useless and not up to it.

LOL, Only someone as dim as Monica could come out with bilge like that. Discombobulation is too good for you.

peter_from_putney

My slightly hesitant suggested Bet of the Week (posted last night) was for the LibDems to out vote UKIP in the GE, available from Ladbrokes at odds of 5/2.
DYOR.

TheScreamingEagles

Brom said:

Worth noting that UKIP numbers have stabilised/increased slightly since the last debate, and with another debate to come a further small boost seems likely. Clacton is of course in the bag and Thanet and Thurrock are looking likely bar a collapse. I'm hearing from Castle Point that they're easing ahead there too.
Rochester though will be very tough for UKIP and the only saving grace is how weak Tolhurst is. Is there any evidence of this poll? Be interested to know which pollster it is with.

The Thanet South poll was conducted by ComRes.

UKIP/Alan Bown generally use Survation

MP_SE

Before rushing to fill your boots with Tory bets, the following may be worth noting:

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/587159799349043200

It will undoubtedly be close though.

malcolmg

anotherDave said:

@ Malcolm and Scott
Thanks, I'll look into those two.

Vanessa Paradis is French , she must have material in her native language.

PS you could go back to the past and have charles Aznavour or Serge gainsbourg thogh depends what you are looking for

Indigo

malcolmg said:

Indigo said:

malcolmg said:

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

Plastic Bertrand is a cracker

Depending on what "French" you like Denez Prigent singing in Breton is rather special.

I was being a bit tongue in cheek , though the one song was very pleasant.

I wasn't having a go, I was joking that my suggestion who sings in Breton which is an all but dead language with about a quarter the number of native speakers as Welsh might not be everyone's definition of French

Pulpstar

MP_SE said:

Before rushing to fill your boots with Tory bets, the following may be worth noting:

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/587159799349043200

It will undoubtedly be close though.

I've got a fairly balanced book on Rochester and I'm keeping it that way.

peter_from_putney

Pulpstar said:

If you think UKIP are off the boil, there are some better bets out there.

Great Grimsby Labour @ 4-6

Thurrock Labour @ 12-5 and Conservative @ 5-1.

The 7-2 on 1 seat is skinny at the moment, G Grimsby is a 105% book if you include the Tories or 100% if you don't, Thurrock has a 4% under-round on Lab, Con, UKIP.

Conservative @ 5-1 in Thurrock might be the best individual value bet of the lot, but it is hard to tell and you can take both that and Labour if you like.

Thanks for that - Grimsby looks like decent value.

anotherDave

Indigo said:

malcolmg said:

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

Plastic Bertrand is a cracker

Depending on what "French" you like Denez Prigent singing in Breton is rather special.

Family history is that one welsh-speaking great-great uncle and a Breton-speaking frenchman were the French-English translation department of a POW camp.

So I shall _have_ to like that one. :-)

Plato

Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.

CarlottaVance

Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

Pulpstar

@Peter_From_Putney No worries. If you fancy UKIP generally I reckon 6-1 Heywood and Middleton is decent too. Personally I think UKIP are neither doing awfully nor great and are heading for 4 seats.

Yorkcity

Scott_P said:

@daily_politics: Scottish #leadersdebate with @NicolaSturgeon @RuthDavidsonMSP @JimForScotland @willie_rennie can be seen UK-wide at 3.35pm on @bbcdemlive

Thanks Scott much appreciated.

Pulpstar

On my Twitter feed all the Labour activity seems to be taking place in London, with some token Scottish efforts.

anotherDave

malcolmg said:

anotherDave said:

@ Malcolm and Scott
Thanks, I'll look into those two.

Vanessa Paradis is French , she must have material in her native language.

PS you could go back to the past and have charles Aznavour or Serge gainsbourg thogh depends what you are looking for

My favourite song so far is Stacey Kent's cover of Mr Gainsbourg's 'Ces petits riens', I didn't much like him singing it though ;-)

youtu.be/iUzGJx9fttQ

Indigo

CarlottaVance said:

Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

The UK dependencies loss will be Singapore's gain.

marktheowl

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

Sebastien Tellier.

Philip_Thompson

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

@daily_politics: Scottish #leadersdebate with @NicolaSturgeon @RuthDavidsonMSP @JimForScotland @willie_rennie can be seen UK-wide at 3.35pm on @bbcdemlive

To anyone with a braincell, do not watch it , 3 losers haranguing someone they don't like with a useless buffoon as ringmaster. You will have more fun cutting your toes off, just a shouting match. Can only be good for SNP as people see how nasty the unionists really are, what they lack in style and charisma they make up for in noise levels.

LOL after the way you spoke to me this morning (FPT), its hilarious to hear you complain about people being nasty. Couldn't make it up.

peter_from_putney

Pulpstar said:

@Peter_From_Putney No worries. If you fancy UKIP generally I reckon 6-1 Heywood and Middleton is decent too. Personally I think UKIP are neither doing awfully nor great and are heading for 4 seats.

No ..... I don't fancy UKIP generally! - I've just backed Labour to win Grimsby.
Four seats is topside imho, more likely two, i.e. Carswell and a n other.

Yorkcity

Plato said:

Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.

Plato I have just finished watching House of Cards..

Let me know if you recommend it.

CarlottaVance

More MI5 plants:

Margaret Curran, the shadow Scottish secretary, is knocking on doors in her efforts to be re-elected as Labour MP for Glasgow East. But there’s an addition to the usual campaign scene: Mrs Curran is being “hunted” (their word) by a pair of aggressive Scottish National Party activists.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11529177/The-bullying-behind-the-SNPs-smiles.html

anotherDave

marktheowl said:

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

Sebastien Tellier.

Thanks Mark.

Carnyx

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

UKIP are going to get a lot more votes at this election than they did at the last one but I still believe they will have a maximum of 2 additional seats, possibly 1.

In Scotland it has been a common meme that the Tories might form some coalition of all that is evil with UKIP after the election. Ruth Davidson pointed out that the utility of a coalition with that level of representation was limited but its too good a story to let facts get in the way.

Might reach panda level then David

I am just relieved that they have been as successful at procreating as the SNP are at economics. We certainly would not have wanted the bar to get any higher.

Ruth said in her speech at the Christmas dinner in Dundee that her priority for this year was to "get rid of the bloody panda joke".

But I don't see UKIP, especially with that embarrassment of an MEP, being any help.

He had an interview with the Sunday Herald, reported today, which might be of interest.

And if you believe some of the polls carry through to the election then we might end up with a second, Red Panda, joke with the obvious other party (there being 4 of them in Scotland AFAIK, at the Highland Wildlife Park). All the same, I'd be surprised if it gets that far.

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.

Plato

Which HoC have you seen? I loved them all though I found S3 a bit odd.

Have you tried Bosch? I really liked that.

I will let you know about DareDevil. EDIT It's got Vincent D'Onofrio in it - Hell Yes! I loved him in Law & Order and MiB.

Yorkcity said:

Plato said:

Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.

Plato I have just finished watching House of Cards..

Let me know if you recommend it.

isam

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

isam

The last poll (South Thanet) wasn't even carried out on behalf of Ukip was it?

JohnO

isam said:

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

How can a party get 4.5 seats? Is the proposed bet for under 5?

Pulpstar

JohnO said:

isam said:

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

How can a party get 4.5 seats? Is the proposed bet for under 5?

No party can of course win half a seat, it is how all under over lines are set

Sean_F

Are there any details about this poll?

FWIW, a recent poll gave UKIP 24% across Kent. I imagine that percentage would be higher in the eight Thames Estuary/North Kent seats.

Yorkcity

Plato said:

Which HoC have you seen? I loved them all though I found S3 a bit odd.

Have you tried Bosch? I really liked that.

I will let you know about DareDevil. EDIT It's got Vincent D'Onofrio in it - Hell Yes! I loved him in Law & Order and MiB.

Yorkcity said:

Plato said:

Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.

Plato I have just finished watching House of Cards..

Let me know if you recommend it.

Thanks

I have just finished S3 of HOC, I agree with you.
Not tried Bosch.
Just started Orange is the New Black.

Pulpstar

isam said:

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

It's a nice price but not for me

Betway are 13-10 the other side just fyi...

SandyRentool

The Tory candidate for City of Durham popped up on the Sunday Politics local bit. It was like watching an episode of Made in Chelsea.

Charles

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

Francoise Hardy is incomparable. And a good singer too

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SR6gL_jW8hg

Plato

I gave in with OITNB after about 5 shows. There's Bloodlines to try to. I HATED the Kimmy Thingy Show. I tried 4 and detested it. It's all Tiny Fey cleverdickery and visually hard on the eyes. Nice idea, all jazz hands executed.

PS Jessica from True Blood is in the pilot of DareDevil - I love that actress.

Yorkcity said:

Plato said:

Which HoC have you seen? I loved them all though I found S3 a bit odd.

Have you tried Bosch? I really liked that.

I will let you know about DareDevil. EDIT It's got Vincent D'Onofrio in it - Hell Yes! I loved him in Law & Order and MiB.

Yorkcity said:

Plato said:

Has anyone seen Netflix's new Marvel show DareDevil? I'm about to start the whole marathon today.

Plato I have just finished watching House of Cards..

Let me know if you recommend it.

Thanks

I have just finished S3 of HOC, I agree with you.
Not tried Bosch.
Just started Orange is the New Black.

JohnO

Pulpstar said:

JohnO said:

isam said:

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

How can a party get 4.5 seats? Is the proposed bet for under 5?

No party can of course win half a seat, it is how all under over lines are set

Thanks. Hmm, I already have three bets with isam, one of which I am pretty sure of winning (UKIP not winning Rotherham), another about which I am rather less confident (kippers below 9%,) with the third being that the LibDems will secure 4 times (I think but will need to check) more seat than UKIP.

If this wager is that I win if UKIP gets 5 or fewer MPs, then I'm tempted. Perhaps he will clarify.

HYUFD

Sandy She often comments on conservativehome, an Oxbridge educated freelance musician I gather, but she is from Durham and writes well

Alistair

JohnO said:

isam said:

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

How can a party get 4.5 seats? Is the proposed bet for under 5?

It's to avoid dead heats.

john_zims

@Millsy

'We've come a long way haven't we. Some excitable souls were predicting 10-20 Ukip gains.'

MikeK is still forecasting 55 UKIP MP's ?

Pulpstar

According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


@JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.

CarlottaVance

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.

Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....

Theuniondivvie

Ha, undecided Edinburgh SW voter on World at One swithering between SNP & Conservative. SNPout!

Casino_Royale

FTP - MalcolmG "I live in Ayrshire , I did live in Hampshire some years ago , spent a year in the Winchester Royal Hotel which was very pleasant and also had a house in Alresford and was in Chandler's Ford as well. Also lived in Little Gaddesden and Hemel Hempstead at other times.
Was around a big recession though and lost my shirt, had to give away my house in Alresford which whilst a bad decision was only thing I could do at the time. Hampshire was very nice but busy, Alresford was superb place to live."

Malcolm, can't talk for long as I'm in the middle of cooking Sunday roast (duck breasts in plum sauce, since you ask) but I live in rural Hampshire too. I was born and brought up here.

I absolutely love it. Alresford is one of my favourite places. I'm sorry to hear you lost your house.

You may have heard of a little place called Odiham? Very similar, in the north of the county.

Indigo

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.

Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....

Indeed, who needs the EU to wreck the City of London, just elect Miliband.

SandyRentool

HYUFD said:

Sandy She often comments on conservativehome, an Oxbridge educated freelance musician I gather, but she is from Durham and writes well

From Durham!?! Her accent certainly isn't!

Pulpstar

Theuniondivvie said:

Ha, undecided Edinburgh SW voter on World at One swithering between SNP & Conservative. SNPout!

He needs to tactically vote SNP to keep Labour out.

Philip_Thompson

isam said:

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?

Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?

Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.

Oky doke

initforthemoney

anotherDave said:

Can anyone recommend any french language singers/bands?

So far I've found Stacey Kent (one french song album), and 'Zaz'.

Stereolab mostly in english with french intonation, but have a few songs with french lyrics.

frpenkridge

Amazing scenes in the Paris-Roubaix when the level-crossing barrier came down in the middle of the peleton. Some riders managed to duck under as they came down, many others wiggled around them as the police tried to stop them just before the express came through.

CarlottaVance

The Conservatives propose to reduce the annual allowance to £10,000 once income reaches £210,000. In other words 50p of allowance will be lost for every additional £1 of income in a range between £150,000 and £210,000. For anyone who continued to put their income into a pension that would effectively raise their marginal income tax rate to 67.5%.

http://election2015.ifs.org.uk/article/conservative-and-labour-proposals-to-cut-pensions-tax-relief-for-those-with-an-income-above-150-000

Philip_Thompson

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?

Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.

Oky doke

Agreed then? Happy to exchange details if you wish or go on trust if you wish.

Luckyguy1983

How are UKIP 'burying' a private poll? Surely the point of a private poll is that it's private. I don't remember them revealing any private polling that showed them winning anything. Are all private polls of all parties that show them not ahead somewhere being 'buried'?

Pulpstar

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sandy She often comments on conservativehome, an Oxbridge educated freelance musician I gather, but she is from Durham and writes well

From Durham!?! Her accent certainly isn't!

I was born in Durham City, and, apart from about five years in Cambridge and London, have lived here all my life. But I don’t have a Northern accent (my dad didn’t, my mum’s is slight, and Radio 4 is a constant in their house).

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats

Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?

I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?

Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.

Oky doke

Agreed then? Happy to exchange details if you wish or go on trust if you wish.

Yes agreed, I trust you, let's see what happens!

HYUFD

Sandy She was born there and her family were involved in the mining industry up there. Her parents were Durham Uni academics, and Durham is a posh Uni

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/08/rebecca-coulson-at-the-durham-miners-gala-echoes-of-the-past-meet-with-hope-for-the-future.html

https://www.conservatives.com/OurTeam/Prospective_Parliamentary_Candidates/Coulson_Rebecca.aspx

Luckyguy1983

Indigo said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.

Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....

Indeed, who needs the EU to wreck the City of London, just elect Miliband.

So what do you think three more bank holidays is going to do to the economy? The Tories have doubled the national debt and totally failed to bring down the structural deficit and they're acting like they've just won the lottery and have cash to splash. The fact that such a shower is the 'economic responsibility' option in this election is deeply depressing.

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


@JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.

On a very, very good night, they could also take Great Yarmouth, Dudley North, Boston & Skegness, Rother Valley, Cannock Chase, Plymouth Moor View, Thanet North, South Basildon & East Thurrock, Castle Point and to hold Rochester and Strood. And end up on 14 MPs.

However, I don't think they are organised or focussed enough to do so. And the tactical votes won't necessarily work in their favour this year.

In 2020, it could be a very different story. I'd probably back UKIP to obtain 10+ seats at that election.

JohnLilburne

Luckyguy1983 said:

Indigo said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.

Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....

Indeed, who needs the EU to wreck the City of London, just elect Miliband.

So what do you think three more bank holidays is going to do to the economy?

Is that a proposal, or are you referring to the three volunteering days?

Charles

Casino_Royale said:

FTP - MalcolmG "I live in Ayrshire , I did live in Hampshire some years ago , spent a year in the Winchester Royal Hotel which was very pleasant and also had a house in Alresford and was in Chandler's Ford as well. Also lived in Little Gaddesden and Hemel Hempstead at other times.
Was around a big recession though and lost my shirt, had to give away my house in Alresford which whilst a bad decision was only thing I could do at the time. Hampshire was very nice but busy, Alresford was superb place to live."

Malcolm, can't talk for long as I'm in the middle of cooking Sunday roast (duck breasts in plum sauce, since you ask) but I live in rural Hampshire too. I was born and brought up here.

I absolutely love it. Alresford is one of my favourite places. I'm sorry to hear you lost your house.

You may have heard of a little place called Odiham? Very similar, in the north of the county.

Great choice of village - have cousins living there

JohnO

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


@JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.

On a very, very good night, they could also take Great Yarmouth, Dudley North, Boston & Skegness, Rother Valley, Cannock Chase, Plymouth Moor View, Thanet North, South Basildon & East Thurrock, Castle Point and to hold Rochester and Strood. And end up on 14 MPs.

However, I don't think they are organised or focussed enough to do so. And the tactical votes won't necessarily work in their favour this year.

In 2020, it could be a very different story. I'd probably back UKIP to obtain 10+ seats at that election.

Pay attention - your plum sauce is boiling over.

Philip_Thompson

Pulpstar said:

According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


@JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.

By Grimsby is that Great Grimsby? UKIP haven't been ahead in any of the Ashcroft polls there so not sure why that'd be expected?

SMukesh

Opinium really good for the Tories.Need more polls to get a clearer picture especially in Scotland

Luckyguy1983

JohnLilburne said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Indigo said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Labour's '10 Point Plan' to get £7.5 billion from Tax Avoidance:

https://twitter.com/unionstogether/status/587216074069958656/photo/1

To answer the question Harriet wouldn't answer Marr 'No, Labour would not change the law regarding the tax avoidance used by the Miliband family'.....

I foresee some cracking red tape in that e.g. "Disguised" self employment.

Brown already had a go at that and caused massive issues. There was a loop hole that was terribly abused especially in the IT sector where every Tom, Dick and Harry became a "consultant", but as always with Brown's solutions, his clamp down basically just resulted in s##t load more trouble.

The problem with so many tax issues, like non-dom's, the reason a lot of these laws have remained unchanged for so long is that it isn't a quick fix.

I am not saying they shouldn't be looked at e.g. the hereditary element of non-dom status seems ridiculous, but so far Ed's approach to things appears this broad brush poorly thought out ban it.

He is taking his bad vs bad, black vs white approach to a lot of this stuff, and as a result it is ban non-doms (despite there by a large number of people who aren't tax dodging in the UK), ban ZHC (despite a large number of people actually wanting them and likely to result in a less flexible labour market), etc.

Imagine you are a squillionair with funds in a UK offshore centre, managed through London who values your privacy. Miliband (somehow - the method is unclear - send in troops?) enforces this public register of beneficial ownership. Do you:

1) Put up with your affairs being plastered all over the press, or
2) Move your funds to one of the many offshore jurisdictions where your affairs will remain private, thus losing the business forever....

Indeed, who needs the EU to wreck the City of London, just elect Miliband.

So what do you think three more bank holidays is going to do to the economy?

Is that a proposal, or are you referring to the three volunteering days?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm referring too. It's as bad as Labour's VAT cut, a naked bribe that is utterly economically destructive.

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

Pulpstar said:

According to Yougov's Election Map, UKIP are going to win

Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet (South) and Grimsby.


@JohnO You win the bet if UKIP get 4 or fewer MPs.

By Grimsby is that Great Grimsby? UKIP haven't been ahead in any of the Ashcroft polls there so not sure why that'd be expected?

2010
Lab 33 Ukip 6

2014 poll
Lab 38 Ukip 26

2015 poll
Lab 35 Ukip 34

Looks like it could be quite close to me

Scott_P

Luckyguy1983 said:

Yes, that's exactly what I'm referring too. It's as bad as Labour's VAT cut, a naked bribe that is utterly economically destructive.

It has been welcomed by the CBI

SandyRentool

Pulpstar said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Sandy She often comments on conservativehome, an Oxbridge educated freelance musician I gather, but she is from Durham and writes well

From Durham!?! Her accent certainly isn't!

I was born in Durham City, and, apart from about five years in Cambridge and London, have lived here all my life. But I don’t have a Northern accent (my dad didn’t, my mum’s is slight, and Radio 4 is a constant in their house).

There is a big difference between not having a Durham accent and talking like a Sloan.