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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP drops to 11% as the Tories re-take the lead with Opini
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP drops to 11% as the Tories re-take the lead with Opinium
CON take lead with Opinium
Con 36% (+3), Lab 34% (+1), Lib Dems 7% (n/c), UKIP 11% (-3), Greens 6% (-1)
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But if Dave is to remain in power, he definitely needs to see UKIP down.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/586938953632198656
Survation used 40:60.
Lots more poor people in the sample = better than usual result for Ed/Labour.
Home Secretary is the toughest gig in Gov't.
Sooner or later the blind faith in the 'People will not want to see Ed M as PM and will change their minds' will butt up against the blind faith in the '35% strategy', so it'll be interesting to see which ends up winning.
"Ambitious but achievable"? That's the same as an 'aspirational' target, right? That it has no chance?
But still, 1.2% would be the 4th highest Lab lead in ELBOW this year.
'I see Andy Murray has got married in Dunblane Cathedral.Apparently in Scotland it is being treated as the wedding of the year. Find it strange that a couple that have been ‘living in sin’ for over six years end up having a white church wedding. It seems rather hypocritical and it surprises me that the clergy agree to carry out such services the effect of which is to bring the church into disrepute.'
Pulupstar
'Christ that's out the fifties playbook ! '
It's actually nothing of the kind. Churches would not have behaved like this in the 70s and 80s.
Apparently Nigel Farage is the same age as Keanu Reeves
"We will raise money through fines, with no behavioural changes at all by anyone..."
Yesterday night I went to some friends for dinner and as I left I asked who they thought would win the election? They answered that Labour had a huge problem.
"What" I asked?
"Their leader is rubbish".
Meanwhile, Chris Hanretty & Others' latest 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast shows Labour on 277 seats, just 4 seats behind the Tories on 281. Interestingly, this projection also shows UKIP winning just one very lonely seat, in sharp contrast to some of the smartest bettors on PB.com who rate the Purples a buy on 5 seats.
It always seem bizarre that people in England believe their established church is in some meaningful way a Protestant church.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11339921/David-Cameron-and-the-national-debt-monster-in-three-charts.html
An investigation has been launched at a £33,000-a-year school after students were taught the wrong exam text.
Students at Wellington College, in Berkshire, spent the last year studying a different classic book for their imminent AS-level exam.
The mistake only came to light when mock papers arrived and no exam questions related to the taught text.
http://dailym.ai/1HghsXi
Though was it the RCs or the Presbyterians who kept homosexuality illegal in Scotland until 1980?
It is worth noting that many English Protestant sects had women ministers in the 17th Century.
:j
Moreover, if the minister does refuse or accept they can be removed from their position by the leity of the parish. It may be that there are some communities where they tell their minister not to marry cohabiting couples but I would expect that to be very, very rare and in such hard c conservative communities most will already be Wee Free or similar offshoot.
The teacher propbably just passed his A levels since qualification is not necessary in these schools.
Can the parents sue ? Because these type of parents can be very litigious.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5lrvokt1ad/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-100415.pdf
Historically the SNP was much stronger in the areas of Presbyterian Scotland, but recently that seems to have lessened.
I also got a text today from a close friend who (although a life-long sympathesiser) has only just joined the Conservatives in the past 12 months. He lives in Tonbridge and is getting a lot of encouragement (pressure?) from his local association to get actively involved and help in Rochester and Strood.
The Tories really are throwing absolutely everything at Reckless. He is hated.
In case you missed it earlier, my cunning thoughts on China (including one tip) are up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/china-pre-race.html
It's as if things that actually happen don't count on here
So what?! They threw absolutely everything at him last time... He won at a canter
The Tory candidate is/was useless , she had to be replaced in a hustings this week by Damian green, while Reckless has been a solid Ukip mp , speaking authoritavely on national TV
Imagine a situation where UKIP retained Clacton, but Farage and Reckless lost, and Thurrock was a near miss.
Meanwhile, Dudley North, Rother Valley and Great Grimsby all fell.
As for Ministers refusing to marry cohabiting couples being very, very rare I would respectfully suggest that until - say - the 1980s it was very rare for cohabiting couples to marry in church at all!
Wonder if in 4 weeks time Survation, Populus, TNS and Panelbase will be looking frantically at their methodology and trying to explain away their abject failure to correctly predict the mood of the country. 9 days left for the 2-3% of Labour and Green voters who aren't registered to vote to get off their arses and register. Doubt many more will bother now. Survation and the others will probably still include them in their polling numbers.
Do these Ministers get clients ?
Is it permissible if these people had sexual relations with other people but not the one they are marrying ?
I'm reporting what I've been told, I'm sorry if you don't like it.
Let me know if you want to back the under 4.5 Ukip at 4/5. I'm out now but drop me an email
It suits me to lay it as I'm in Ukip 3-4 for a few quid at 8/1 so we are both laughing if they get that, you are laughing even more if they get exactly 2
I know the electoral system means that in theory you could get a big percentage vote but fail to earn any seats. However in practice it's been far from the case. UKIP on say 10-15% of the vote are presumed to get a couple of seats, but the LDs on the same are presumed to get 25+. It's possible, but there's some likelihood tat the models are wrong.(ell it's certain they're wrong, but some chance in this aspect)
Overall the opinion polls are likely to be underestimating the Tories and UKIP (more strongly). I think UKIP will make at least one remarkable gain, but unfortunately I think they'll make at best a handful. I say unfortunately because if the LDs finish up with (say) 30 MPs, and UKIP with (say) 6 when the vote shares are massively the other way then it will be damaging to all of us. It won't of course be nearly as damaging as the Scots issue.
ICM I'm confident we should get that too.
I also don't see them getting close in Rother Valley or Grimsby.
If their leader, who has a strong national profile and bags of charisma, fails to win Thanet South that is exactly how the media will portray and report it.
I find that hard to believe
*Innocent Face*
Nothing great to be honest. A mixture of too posh, lost their way but will be voting for them to get a referendum/keep Labour out.
Quite sad that it seems that a large number of people are completely turned off by politics.
May I ask when that was?
She doesn't seem to have anything else.
As things stand I think we're on course for a wafer thin Tory win, SNP to have almost total domination in Scotland, LD's to have sufficient numbers to be easily able to book a table in a restaurant, and the Greens to be sufficient to form a meeting.
But I heard the same arguments levelled against the pollsters during the lead up to the Indyref.
By and large, most of them got the result well within the margin of error.
Whilst I understand the difference between a FPTP election and a referendum with a binary choice, that gives me confidence that most of the pollsters will get this election right.
It was a little more complicated than that: it is a rural church with one priest shared across three parishes. The priest wanted to close our church, because it was more traditional than he liked (his excuse was that his time was better spent ministering to the poor), but our family teamed up with the local squire to make sure that he wasn't able to do so.
Typical imperialist.